Document
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UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 8-K
Current Report
Pursuant to Section 13 or 15 (d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported)—May 7, 2020
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
Bermuda
001-32141
98-0429991
(State or other jurisdiction
of incorporation or organization)
(Commission File Number)
 (I.R.S. Employer
Identification No.)
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08 Bermuda
(Address of principal executive offices)
Registrant’s telephone number, including area code: (441279-5700
Not applicable
(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):
Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Title of each class:
Trading Symbol(s)
Name of exchange on which registered
Common Shares
$0.01 par value per share
AGO
New York Stock Exchange
Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. 6-7/8% $100,000,000 Quarterly Interest Bonds due 2101 (and the related guarantee of Registrant)
AGO PRB
New York Stock Exchange
Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. 6.25% $230,000,000 Quarterly Interest Bonds due 2102 (and the related guarantee of Registrant)
AGO PRE
New York Stock Exchange
Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. 5.60% $100,000,000 Quarterly Interest Bonds due 2103 (and the related guarantee of Registrant)
AGO PRF
New York Stock Exchange
Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. 5.000% $500,000,000 Senior Notes due 2024 (and the related guarantee of Registrant)
AGO 24
New York Stock Exchange





Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (17 CFR §230.405) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (17 CFR §240.12b-2).

Emerging growth company

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act.







Item 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition

On May 7, 2020 Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL) issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2020 results and the availability of its March 31, 2020 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.
 
 
Item 9.01
Financial Statements and Exhibits.
(d) Exhibits
 
 
Exhibit
Number
Description
99.1
99.2
104.1
Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document


3



SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
 
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
 
 
 
 
 
By:
/s/ ROBERT A. BAILENSON
 
 
Name: Robert A. Bailenson
Title:
Chief Financial Officer
DATE: May 7, 2020









































4
agllogoa02.jpg

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for First Quarter 2020

GAAP Highlights
Net loss attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. was $55 million, or $0.59 per share,(1) for first quarter 2020.
Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per share was $69.35 as of March 31, 2020.

Non-GAAP Highlights
Adjusted operating income(2) was $33 million, or $0.36 per share, for first quarter 2020.
Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity(2) per share was $67.25 as of March 31, 2020.
Adjusted book value (ABV)(2) per share was $98.02 as of March 31, 2020.

Total Capital Returned to Shareholders
Total capital returned to shareholders was $136 million, including share repurchases of $116 million, or 3.6 million shares, in first quarter 2020.

Insurance Segment(3) 
Adjusted operating income was $85 million for first quarter 2020.
Gross written premiums (GWP) were $64 million for first quarter 2020.
Present value of new business production (PVP)(4) was $51 million for first quarter 2020.

Asset Management Segment(3) 
Adjusted operating loss was $9 million for first quarter 2020, including $3 million in amortization of intangible assets.
Wind-down funds net outflows were $875 million in first quarter 2020.

Hamilton, Bermuda, May 7, 2020 -- Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) (AGL and, together with its consolidated entities, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today its financial results for the three-month period ended March 31, 2020 (first quarter 2020).

“In these turbulent times, I would like to offer our sympathies to all who have been adversely affected by this horrible pandemic and express our heartfelt thanks to the first responders and healthcare workers who make countless sacrifices for everyone’s benefit,” said Dominic Frederico, President and CEO. “Assured Guaranty’s first quarter 2020 results reflect some of the dislocation experienced in the financial markets. We produced $51 million of PVP, 21% higher than in last year’s first quarter, even after experiencing the negative impact of the market shutting down in the latter part of March. We have been effectively operating remotely, for the safety of our employees and the public, in compliance with the shelter-at-home requirements in effect globally. Based on our liquidity; low insured leverage; diversified, granular portfolio; and significant excess capital, we are structured to withstand the financial stress that can result from this pandemic.”



(1)
All per share information is based on diluted shares.
(2)
Adjusted operating income, adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value were formerly known as "Non-GAAP operating income", "Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity" and "Non-GAAP adjusted book value", respectively. Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”
(3)
Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2019, with the acquisition of BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC and expansion into the asset management business, the Company now operates in two distinct operating segments: Insurance and Asset Management. The Company also has a Corporate division; please see "Summary Financial Results" table below. Adjusted operating income is the Company's segment measure.
(4)
Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”



1


Summary Financial Results
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Quarter Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
 
 
 
 
GAAP Highlights
 
 
 
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
$
(55
)
 
$
54

Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share
(0.59
)
 
0.52

Weighted average shares
92.6

 
104.0

 
 
 
 
Non-GAAP Highlights
 
 
 
Adjusted operating income (loss)
 
 
 
Insurance(1)
$
85

 
$
111

Asset Management(1)
(9
)
 

Corporate
(39
)
 
(25
)
Other
(4
)
 

Adjusted operating income (loss)(2)
$
33

 
$
86

Adjusted operating income per diluted share(2)
$
0.36

 
$
0.82

Weighted average diluted shares
93.4

 
104.0

 
As of
 
March 31, 2020
 
December 31, 2019
 
Amount
 
Per Share
 
Amount
 
Per Share
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
$
6,240

 
$
69.35

 
$
6,639

 
$
71.18

Adjusted operating shareholders' equity (2)
6,051

 
67.25

 
6,246

 
66.96

ABV (2)
8,820

 
98.02

 
9,047

 
96.99

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Common Shares Outstanding
90.0

 
 
 
93.3

 
 
________________________________________________
(1)
Adjusted operating income (loss) represents the Company's segment measure.
(2)
Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.

Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL decreased in first quarter 2020 primarily due to a decrease in unrealized gains on the available-for-sale portfolio and share repurchases. Adjusted operating shareholders' equity and ABV decreased in first quarter 2020 primarily due to share repurchases.

Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share declined from $71.18 per share as of December 31, 2019, to $69.35 per share as of March 31, 2020, the first quarterly decline in GAAP book value per share since second quarter of 2013. Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share and ABV per share both reached new records in first quarter 2020.


2


Insurance Segment

The Insurance segment primarily consists of the Company's domestic and foreign insurance subsidiaries and their wholly owned subsidiaries that provide credit protection products to the United States (U.S.) and international public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. The Insurance segment also includes the income (loss) from its proportionate equity interest in Assured Investment Management funds. The Insurance segment is presented without giving effect to the consolidation of variable interest entities (VIEs).

Insurance Results
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
Revenues
 
 
 
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues
$
107

 
$
126

Net investment income
83

 
99

Other income (loss)
6

 
9

Total revenues
196

 
234

 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
Loss expense
18

 
44

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs (DAC)
3

 
6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
41

 
37

Other operating expenses
22

 
20

Total expenses
84

 
107

Equity in net earnings of investees
(9
)
 
1

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
103

 
128

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
18

 
17

Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
85

 
$
111


First Quarter 2020

Insurance adjusted operating income for first quarter 2020 was $85 million, compared with adjusted operating income of $111 million for the three-month period ended March 31, 2019 (first quarter 2019). The decrease was mainly due to the following:

Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues in first quarter 2020 were $107 million, compared with $126 million in first quarter 2019. The decline in net earned premiums was due to lower accelerations from refundings and the scheduled decline in net par outstanding. Accelerations from refundings and terminations were $15 million in first quarter 2020 compared with $26 million in first quarter 2019.

Net investment income decreased in first quarter 2020 compared with first quarter 2019 primarily due to a decrease in the average asset balances in the investment portfolio and lower reinvestment rates. The decrease in the average balance of the investment portfolio was due, in part, to funds used for share repurchases and alternative investments, including Assured Investment Management funds.



3


Equity in earnings of investees includes investments in Assured Investment Management funds, recorded at fair value. Volatility and dislocation in the market, particularly for the Company's investments in Assured Investment Management's CLO Warehouse Fund (US) L.P. (CLO Warehouse Fund) and AIM Asset Backed Income Fund (US) L.P. funds, was the primary driver of the $9 million fair value loss during first quarter 2020.

The effective tax rate was 17.1% in first quarter 2020 compared with 13.3% in first quarter 2019. The effective tax rate fluctuates from period to period based on the proportion of income in different tax jurisdictions.

The decrease was partially offset by lower loss expense of $18 million in first quarter 2020, compared with $44 million in first quarter 2019. Lower loss expense in first quarter 2020 was primarily attributable to lower loss expense for Puerto Rico exposures and higher recoveries in the U.S. residential mortgage- backed securities (RMBS) portfolio.

Economic Loss Development

The economic benefit in first quarter 2020 of $3 million mainly consists of a benefit in first lien U.S. RMBS transactions that was attributable to higher excess spread on certain transactions supported by large portions of fixed rate assets that have insured floating rate debt linked to the London Interbank Offered Rate, which decreased in first quarter 2020. The benefit in U.S. RMBS was partially offset by economic loss development in U.S. public finance transactions, primarily Puerto Rico exposures. The economic development attributable to changes in discount rates was a loss of $31 million in first quarter 2020, which was primarily attributable to U.S. RMBS transactions.
 
Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (1)
(in millions)
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid/(Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2019
 
Economic Loss/ (Benefit) Development
 
Losses (Paid)/ Recovered
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid/(Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2020
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance
$
554

 
$
59

 
$
(94
)
 
$
519

U.S. RMBS
146

 
(63
)
 
21

 
104

Other structured finance
37

 
1

 
(1
)
 
37

Total
$
737

 
$
(3
)
 
$
(74
)
 
$
660

________________________________________________
(1)
Economic loss/(benefit) development represents the change in net expected loss to be paid attributable to the effects of changes in assumptions based on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts. Economic loss development is the principal measure that the Company uses to evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to be paid includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the accounting model prescribed under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).

New Business Production

GWP relates to both financial guaranty insurance and specialty insurance and reinsurance contracts. Financial guaranty GWP includes amounts collected upfront on new business written, the present value of future premiums on new business written (discounted at risk free rates), as well as the effects of changes in the estimated lives of transactions in the inforce book of business. Specialty insurance and reinsurance GWP is recorded as premiums are due. Credit derivatives are accounted for at fair value and therefore are not included in GWP. The non-GAAP measure, PVP, on the other hand, includes upfront premiums and the present value of estimated future installments on new business at the time of issuance, discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, for all contracts whether in insurance or credit derivative form. See “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release.



4


New Business Production
(in millions)

 
Quarter Ended March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
 
GWP
 
PVP (1)
 
Gross Par Written (1)
 
GWP
 
PVP (1)
 
Gross Par Written (1)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
$
29

 
$
29

 
$
2,641

 
$
30

 
$
32

 
$
2,016

Public finance - non-U.S.
34

 
21

 
377

 
2

 
4

 
176

Structured finance - U.S.
1

 
1

 
15

 
6

 
5

 
494

Structured finance - non-U.S.

 

 

 
1

 
1

 
21

Total
$
64

 
$
51

 
$
3,033

 
$
39

 
$
42

 
$
2,707

________________________________________________
(1)
PVP and Gross Par Written in the table above are based on "close date," when the transaction settles. Please see “Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures” at the end of this press release. The discount rate used for PVP as of March 31, 2020 is 3%. The prior period has been recast to present PVP discounted at 3% instead of 6%.

The increases in GWP and PVP were primarily attributable to non-U.S. public finance new business, including a guaranty of a solar bond transaction in Spain, written by the Company's new French subsidiary, Assured Guaranty (Europe) SA , as well as additional premiums upon the conversion of several existing transactions from credit default swaps to financial guaranty insurance contracts. The Company has consistently written new non-U.S. public finance business every quarter since the end of 2015.

Business activity in the international infrastructure and structured finance sectors is influenced by typically long lead times and therefore may vary from period to period.

The volatility and dislocation in the U.S. municipal finance market caused by the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the Company issuing a reduced number of new insurance policies in late March. However, first quarter 2020 U.S. public finance GWP was $29 million, only slightly lower compared with first quarter 2019 GWP of $30 million. Similarly, PVP was $29 million in first quarter 2020, compared with PVP of $32 million in first quarter 2019.



5


Asset Management Segment

The Asset Management segment, which consists of BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (BlueMountain) and its associated entities operating within the Assured Investment Management platform, provides asset management services to outside investors as well as to the Insurance segment.

Asset Management Results
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
Revenues
 
Management fees:
 
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)
$
5

Opportunity funds
2

Wind-down funds
9

Total management fees (1)
16

Other income
1

Total revenues
17

 
 
Expenses
 
Amortization of intangible assets
3

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
18

Other operating expenses
7

Total expenses
28

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
(11
)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(2
)
Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
(9
)
________________________________________________
(1)
The Asset Management segment presents reimbursable fund expenses netted in other operating expenses, whereas on the condensed consolidated statement of operations such reimbursable expenses are shown gross, as components of asset management fees and other operating expenses.



6


Assets Under Management
(in millions)
 
CLOs
 
Opportunity Funds
 
Wind-Down Funds
 
Total
Rollforward:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assets under management (AUM), December 31, 2019
$
12,758

 
$
1,023

 
$
4,046

 
$
17,827

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Inflows

 
88

 

 
88

Outflows:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Redemptions

 

 

 

Distributions
(67
)
 
(85
)
 
(875
)
 
(1,027
)
Total outflows
(67
)
 
(85
)
 
(875
)
 
(1,027
)
Net flows
(67
)
 
3

 
(875
)
 
(939
)
Change in fund value
(46
)
 
(57
)
 
(306
)
 
(409
)
AUM, March 31, 2020 (1)
$
12,645

 
$
969

 
$
2,865

 
$
16,479

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of March 31, 2020:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Funded AUM (2)
$
12,634

 
$
849

 
$
2,843

 
$
16,326

Unfunded AUM (2)
11

 
120

 
22

 
153

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fee Earning AUM (2)
$
6,038

 
$
814

 
$
2,601

 
$
9,453

Non-Fee Earning AUM (2)
6,607

 
155

 
264

 
7,026

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of December 31, 2019:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Funded AUM (2)
$
12,721

 
$
796

 
$
3,980

 
$
17,497

Unfunded AUM (2)
37

 
227

 
66

 
330

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fee Earning AUM (2)
$
3,438

 
$
695

 
$
3,838

 
$
7,971

Non-Fee Earning AUM (2)
9,320

 
328

 
208

 
9,856

________________________________________________
(1)
Includes AUM of the insurance company subsidiaries (intercompany AUM) of $216 million in opportunity funds and $41 million in a CLO Warehouse Fund.
(2)
Please see “Definitions” at the end of this press release.

First Quarter 2020

Asset Management adjusted operating loss was $9 million for first quarter 2020, including $3 million in pretax amortization related to intangible assets which primarily consist of the fair value of investment management and CLO contracts.

CLO AUM includes CLO equity that is held by various Assured Investment Management funds of $259 million as of March 31, 2020, and $536 million as of December 31, 2019. This CLO equity corresponds to the majority of the non-fee earning CLO AUM, as BlueMountain typically rebates the CLO fees back to Assured Investment Management funds. Prior to the market dislocation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in March, Assured Investment Management funds sold CLO equity, which contributed to the increase in fee earning AUM from $7,971 million as of December 31, 2019 to $9,453 million as of March 31, 2020.

Management fees from CLOs shown in the table above are the net management fees that BlueMountain retains after rebating the portion of these fees that pertains to the CLO equity that is held directly by Assured Investment Management


7


funds. Gross management fees from CLOs, before rebates to Assured Investment Management funds, were $10 million for first quarter 2020.

Net AUM outflows were $939 million, primarily driven by the return of capital in wind-down funds, which includes funds that are in their harvest period, partially offset by additional subscriptions by the Insurance segment into two opportunity funds focused on asset-backed finance and healthcare structured capital strategies.

Corporate Division

The Corporate division consists primarily of interest expense on the debt of Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH), as well as other operating expenses attributed to holding company activities such as Board of Directors' expenses, and administrative services performed by operating subsidiaries for the holding companies.
Corporate Results
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
 
 
 
 
Revenues
 
 
 
Net investment income
$
1

 
$
1

Loss on extinguishment of debt
(5
)
 
(1
)
Total revenues
(4
)
 

 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
Interest expense
25

 
24

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
5

 
4

Other operating expenses
5

 
3

Total expenses
35

 
31

Equity in net earnings of investees
(5
)
 
1

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
(44
)
 
(30
)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(5
)
 
(5
)
Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
(39
)
 
$
(25
)

Adjusted operating loss for the Corporate division for both periods consisted primarily of (1) interest expense, (2) operating expenses of the holding companies, and (3) loss on extinguishment of debt recorded in other income. In first quarter 2020, the Company also recorded a write down of an equity method investment, that is reflected in equity in earnings of investees. The loss on extinguishment of debt is related to AGUS's purchase of a portion of the principal amount of AGMH's outstanding Junior Subordinated Debentures and represents the difference between the amount paid to purchase AGMH's debt and the carrying value of the debt, which includes the unamortized fair value adjustments that were recorded upon the acquisition of AGMH in 2009. Interest expense includes interest on intersegment debt to the Insurance segment of $3 million in first quarter 2020.

Other Items

Other items consist of intersegment eliminations, reclassifications of reimbursable fund expenses, and consolidation adjustments, including the effect of consolidating financial guaranty (FG) VIEs and certain BlueMountain investment vehicles in which the Insurance segment invests.


8



The types of VIEs the Company consolidates when it is deemed to be the primary beneficiary include (1) entities whose debt obligations the insurance subsidiaries insure, and (2) investment vehicles such as collateralized financing entities and investment funds managed by the Asset Management subsidiaries, in which the insurance company subsidiaries have a variable interest (consolidated investment vehicles). The Company eliminates the effects of intercompany transactions between consolidated VIEs and its insurance and asset management subsidiaries, as well as intercompany transactions between consolidated VIEs.

Generally, the consolidation of the Company's investment vehicles and FG VIEs has a significant gross-up effect on the Company's assets, liabilities and cash flows. The economic effect of the Company's interest in consolidated funds and the premiums and losses associated with consolidated FG VIEs are presented in the Insurance segment. The consolidation of investment vehicles have no net effect on the net income attributable to the Company. On a consolidated basis, the ownership interests of the Company's consolidated funds, to which the Company has no economic rights, are reflected as either redeemable or nonredeemable noncontrolling interests in the consolidated funds in the Company's consolidated financial statements.

Reconciliation to GAAP

Reconciliation of Net Income (Loss) Attributable to AGL to
Adjusted Operating Income (Loss)
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Quarter Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
 
Total
 
Per Diluted Share
 
Total
 
Per Diluted Share
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
$
(55
)
 
$
(0.59
)
 
$
54

 
$
0.52

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
(5
)
 
(0.06
)
 
(12
)
 
(0.12
)
Non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(88
)
 
(0.95
)
 
(28
)
 
(0.26
)
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)
48

 
0.52

 
(9
)
 
(0.09
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
(57
)
 
(0.62
)
 
9

 
0.09

Total pre-tax adjustments
(102
)
 
(1.11
)
 
(40
)
 
(0.38
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
14

 
0.16

 
8

 
0.08

Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
33

 
$
0.36

 
$
86

 
$
0.82


Net realized losses in first quarter 2020 related primarily to an increase in the allowance for credit loss on loss mitigation securities. Shut-downs due to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions contributed to the increase in the allowance for credit loss on certain loss mitigation securities in first quarter 2020. Credit impairment in first quarter 2019 was primarily attributable to other-than-temporary impairment on loss mitigation securities and foreign exchange losses.

In first quarter 2020, non-credit-impairment fair value losses on credit derivatives were generated primarily as a result of wider spreads of the underlying collateral and lower discount rates, partially offset by gains due to the widening of AGC spreads. In first quarter 2019 non-credit impairment fair value losses were generated primarily as a result of the tightening of AGC spreads. Except for credit impairment, the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives in the insured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero over the remaining term of that portfolio.


9



Fair value gains on CCS in first quarter 2020 were primarily due to a widening in market spreads, while fair value losses on CCS in first quarter 2019 were primarily due to a tightening in market spreads. Fair value of CCS is heavily affected by, and in part fluctuates with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

Foreign exchange gains and losses in both periods primarily relate to remeasurement of premiums receivable and are mainly due to changes in the exchange rate of the pound sterling relative to the U.S. dollar.

Common Share Repurchases

Summary of Share Repurchases
(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Amount
 
Number of Shares
 
Average Price Per Share
 
 
 
 
 
 
2020 (January 1 - March 31)
$
116.2

 
3.63

 
$
32.03

2020 (April 1 - May 7)
92.8

 
3.31

 
28.01

Total 2020
$
209.0

 
6.94

 
$
30.11


From 2013 through May 7, 2020, the Company repurchased a total of 112.7 million common shares at an average price of $30.40, representing approximately 58% of the total shares outstanding when the repurchase program began in 2013. As of May 7, 2020, the Company was authorized to purchase $239 million of its common shares. These repurchases can be made from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions.

As in the past, the Company's execution of its capital management strategy is contingent upon its available free cash and the capital position of the parent company, market conditions, the maintenance of its strong financial strength ratings and other factors, some of which factors may be impacted by the direct and indirect consequences of the course and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving governmental and private responses to the pandemic. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board of Directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.



10


Financial Statements

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
Quarter Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
Revenues
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
103

 
$
118

Net investment income
80

 
98

Asset management fees
23

 

Net realized investment gains (losses)
(5
)
 
(12
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
(77
)
 
(22
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
48

 
(9
)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
(9
)
 
5

Fair value gains (losses) on consolidated investment vehicles
(12
)
 

Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement
(62
)
 
11

Other income (loss)
7

 
6

Total revenues
96

 
195

Expenses
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
20

 
46

Interest expense
22

 
23

Amortization of DAC
3

 
6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
64

 
41

Other operating expenses
45

 
23

Total expenses
154

 
139

Income (loss) before income taxes and equity in net earnings of investees
(58
)
 
56

Equity in net earnings of investees
(4
)
 
2

Income (loss) before income taxes
(62
)
 
58

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(4
)
 
4

Net income (loss)
(58
)
 
54

Less: Noncontrolling interests
(3
)
 

Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
$
(55
)
 
$
54













11


Results by Segment
(in millions)

 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2020
 
Insurance
 
Asset Management
 
Corporate
 
Other
 
Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues
$
107

 
$

 
$

 
$
(1
)
 
$
106

Net investment income
83

 

 
1

 
(4
)
 
80

Asset management fees

 
16

 

 
7

 
23

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs

 

 

 
(9
)
 
(9
)
Fair value gains (losses) on consolidated investment vehicles

 

 

 
(12
)
 
(12
)
Other income (loss)
6

 
1

 
(5
)
 

 
2

Total revenues
196

 
17

 
(4
)
 
(19
)
 
190

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
18

 

 

 
(6
)
 
12

Interest expense

 

 
25

 
(3
)
 
22

Amortization of DAC and intangible assets
3

 
3

 

 

 
6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
41

 
18

 
5

 

 
64

Other operating expenses
22

 
7

 
5

 
8

 
42

Total expenses
84

 
28

 
35

 
(1
)
 
146

Equity in net earnings of investees
(9
)
 

 
(5
)
 
10

 
(4
)
Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
103

 
(11
)
 
(44
)
 
(8
)
 
40

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
18

 
(2
)
 
(5
)
 
(1
)
 
10

Noncontrolling interests

 

 

 
(3
)
 
(3
)
Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
85

 
$
(9
)
 
$
(39
)
 
$
(4
)
 
$
33




12


Results by Segment (continued)
(in millions)
 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2019
 
Insurance
 
Asset Management
 
Corporate
 
Other
 
Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues
$
126

 
$

 
$

 
$
(3
)
 
$
123

Net investment income
99

 

 
1

 
(2
)
 
98

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs

 

 

 
5

 
5

Other income (loss)
9

 

 
(1
)
 

 
8

Total revenues
234

 

 

 

 
234

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
44

 

 

 
1

 
45

Interest expense

 

 
24

 
(1
)
 
23

Amortization of DAC and intangible assets
6

 

 

 

 
6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
37

 

 
4

 

 
41

Other operating expenses
20

 

 
3

 

 
23

Total expenses
107

 

 
31

 

 
138

Equity in net earnings of investees
1

 

 
1

 

 
2

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
128

 

 
(30
)
 

 
98

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
17

 

 
(5
)
 

 
12

Noncontrolling interests

 

 

 

 

Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
111

 
$

 
$
(25
)
 
$

 
$
86



13


Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(in millions)
 
As of
 
March 31, 2020
 
December 31, 2019
Assets
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
Fixed-maturity securities available-for-sale, at fair value
$
8,568

 
$
8,854

Short-term investments, at fair value
933

 
1,268

Other invested assets
121

 
118

Total investment portfolio
9,622

 
10,240

Cash
139

 
169

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
1,233

 
1,286

DAC
113

 
111

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
820

 
747

FG VIEs' assets, at fair value
368

 
442

Assets of consolidated investment vehicles
645

 
572

Goodwill and other intangible assets
212

 
216

Other assets
593

 
543

Total assets
$
13,745

 
$
14,326

Liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
$
3,706

 
$
3,736

Loss and LAE reserve
1,050

 
1,050

Long-term debt
1,221

 
1,235

Credit derivative liabilities, at fair value
265

 
191

FG VIEs' liabilities with recourse, at fair value
312

 
367

FG VIEs' liabilities without recourse, at fair value
82

 
102

Liabilities of consolidated investment vehicles
431

 
482

Other liabilities
405

 
511

Total liabilities
7,472

 
7,674

 
 
 
 
Redeemable noncontrolling interests in consolidated investment vehicles
8

 
7

 
 
 
 
Common stock
1

 
1

Retained earnings
6,100

 
6,295

Accumulated other comprehensive income
138

 
342

Deferred equity compensation
1

 
1

Total shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
6,240

 
6,639

Nonredeemable noncontrolling interests
25

 
6

Total shareholders' equity
6,265

 
6,645

Total liabilities, redeemable noncontrolling interests and shareholders’ equity
$
13,745

 
$
14,326



14


Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of the Company.

By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. The Company believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

The Company also provides the effect of VIE consolidation that is embedded in each non-GAAP financial measure, as applicable, which the Company believes may also be useful to investors, analysts and financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain FG VIEs and investment vehicles. The Company does not own the consolidated FG VIEs and its exposure is limited to its obligation under the financial guaranty insurance contract. The Insurance segment presents the economic effect of the financial guaranty contracts associated with the consolidated FG VIEs. The Company does own a substantial ownership interest in its consolidated investment vehicles, which is reflected in the Insurance segment.

Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses core financial measures in its decision making process and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation.

Management believes that many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Management also believes that many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.

Management believes that many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use adjusted book value, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Adjusted operating income further adjusted for the effect of VIE consolidation enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.

The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) adjusted operating income, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, (2) adjusted operating shareholders' equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, (3) growth in adjusted book value per share, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.

In the first quarter of 2020, the Company changed the discount rate used in the calculation of PVP and net present value of estimated future net revenues, which is a component of adjusted book value. Beginning in 2020, the discount rate will be the approximate average pre-tax fixed book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased in the prior calendar


15


year, excluding loss mitigation bonds. In prior periods the discount rate was a constant 6% discount rate. The Company made these changes and recast prior periods to better reflect the then current interest rate environment. The reconciliation tables of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures for PVP and ABV indicate the new discount rate for each relevant period.  

The following paragraphs and tables define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.

Adjusted Operating Income

Management believes that adjusted operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company. Adjusted operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:
 
1) Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS that are recognized in net income. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
4) Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves that are recognized in net income. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
 
5) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value

Management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss.

Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:


16


 
1) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
2) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3) Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.
 
4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.
 
Management uses adjusted book value, further adjusted for VIE consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in adjusted book value per share, further adjusted for VIE consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Adjusted book value is adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:
 
1) Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.
 
2) Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue. See below.
 
3) Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the present value of the expected future net earned premiums, net of the present value of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.



17


Reconciliation of GAAP Shareholders' Equity attributable to AGL to
Adjusted Operating Shareholders' Equity and ABV (1) 
(in millions, except per share amounts)
 
As of
 
March 31, 2020
 
December 31, 2019
 
Total
 
Per Share
 
Total
 
Per Share
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
$
6,240

 
$
69.35

 
$
6,639

 
$
71.18

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(144
)
 
(1.60
)
 
(56
)
 
(0.60
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
101

 
1.12

 
52

 
0.56

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
275

 
3.06

 
486

 
5.21

Less taxes
(43
)
 
(0.48
)
 
(89
)
 
(0.95
)
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity
6,051

 
67.25

 
6,246

 
66.96

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Less: DAC
113

 
1.26

 
111

 
1.19

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
193

 
2.14

 
206

 
2.20

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
3,273

 
36.37

 
3,296

 
35.34

Plus taxes
(584
)
 
(6.48
)
 
(590
)
 
(6.32
)
ABV
$
8,820

 
$
98.02

 
$
9,047

 
$
96.99

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted operating shareholders' equity
$
12

 
$
0.14

 
$
7

 
$
0.07

Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted book value
2

 
$
0.03

 
(4
)
 
(0.05
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of the period
90.0

 
 
 
93.3

 
 
___________________
(1) The discount rate used for net present value of estimated net future revenues as of March 31, 2020 is 3%. The prior period has been recast to present the net present value of net future revenues discounted at 3% instead of 6%.

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue

Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of the present value of estimated net future revenue for contracts other than financial guaranty insurance contracts (such as specialty insurance and reinsurance contracts and credit derivatives). This amount represents the net present value of estimated future revenue from these contracts (other than credit derivatives with net expected losses), net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes.

Future installment premiums are discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than loss mitigation securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Net present value of estimated future revenue for an obligation may change from period to period due to a change in the discount rate or due to a change in estimated net future revenue for the obligation, which may change due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure.



18


PVP or Present Value of New Business Production

Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as additional installment premium on existing contracts (which may result from supplements or fees or from the issuer not calling an insured obligation the Company projected would be called), whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and changes in fair value of credit derivatives do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums. 

Future installment premiums are discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than loss mitigation securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk-free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction.

Actual installment premiums may differ from those estimated in the Company's PVP calculation due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. 



19


Reconciliation of GWP to PVP (1) 
(in millions)

 
 
Quarter Ended
 
 
March 31, 2020
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
GWP
 
$
29

 
$
34

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
64

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 

 
34

 
1

 

 
35

      Upfront GWP
 
29

 

 

 

 
29

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 

 
21

 
1

 

 
22

PVP
 
$
29

 
$
21

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
51


 
 
Quarter Ended
 
 
March 31, 2019
 
 
Public Finance
 
Structured Finance
 
 
 
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
U.S.
 
Non - U.S.
 
Total
GWP
 
$
30

 
$
2

 
$
6

 
$
1

 
$
39

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(2)
 
(2
)
 
2

 
5

 

 
5

      Upfront GWP
 
32

 

 
1

 
1

 
34

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 

 
4

 
4

 

 
8

PVP
 
$
32

 
$
4

 
$
5

 
$
1

 
$
42

________________________________________________
(1)
The discount rate used for PVP as of March 31, 2020 is 3%. The prior period has been recast to present PVP discounted at 3% instead of 6%.
(2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.

Definitions

The Company uses AUM as a metric to measure progress in its Asset Management segment. The Company uses measures of its AUM in its decision-making process and intends to use a measure of change in AUM in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. Investors also use AUM to evaluate companies that participate in the asset management business. AUM refers to the assets managed, advised or serviced by the Asset Management segment and equals the sum of the following:

the net asset value of the opportunity and wind-down funds plus any unfunded commitments; and

the amount of aggregate collateral balance and principal cash of BlueMountain's CLOs, including CLO equity that may be held by Assured Investment Management funds. This also includes CLO assets managed by BlueMountain Fuji Management, LLC (BM Fuji). BlueMountain is not the investment manager of BM Fuji CLOs, but rather has entered into a services agreement and a secondment agreement with BM Fuji pursuant to which BlueMountain provides certain services associated with the management of BM Fuji-advised CLOs and acts in the capacity of service provider.



20


The Company’s calculation of AUM may differ from the calculation employed by other investment managers and, as a result, this measure may not be directly comparable to similar measures presented by other investment managers.  The calculation also differs from the manner in which BlueMountain affiliates registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) report “Regulatory Assets Under Management” on Form ADV and Form PF in various ways.

The Company also uses several other measurements of AUM to understand and measure its AUM in more detail and for various purposes, including its relative position in the market and its income and income potential:

“Third-party assets under management” or “3rd Party AUM” refers to the assets BlueMountain manages or advises on behalf of third-party investors. This includes current and former employee investments in Assured Investment Management funds. For CLOs, this also includes CLO equity that may be held by Assured Investment Management funds.

“Intercompany assets under management” or “Intercompany AUM” refers to the assets BlueMountain manages or advises on behalf of the Company. This includes investments from affiliates of Assured Guaranty along with general partners' investments of BlueMountain (or its affiliates) into the funds.

“Funded assets under management” or “Funded AUM” refers to assets that have been deployed or invested into the funds or CLOs.

“Unfunded assets under management” or “Unfunded AUM” refers to unfunded capital commitments from closed-end funds and CLO warehouse fund.

“Fee earning assets under management” or “Fee Earning AUM” refers to assets where BlueMountain collects fees and has elected not to waive or rebate fees to investors.

“Non-fee earning assets under management” or “Non-Fee Earning AUM” refers to assets where BlueMountain does not collect fees or has elected to waive or rebate fees to investors. BlueMountain reserves the right to waive some or all fees for certain investors, including investors affiliated with BlueMountain and/or the Company. Further, to the extent that the Company's wind-down and/or opportunity funds are invested in BlueMountain managed CLOs, BlueMountain may rebate any management fees and/or performance compensation earned from the CLOs to the extent such fees are attributable to the wind-down and opportunity funds’ holdings of CLOs also managed by BlueMountain.



21


Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time (9:00 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Friday, May 8, 2020. The conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the Investor Information section of the Company's website at AssuredGuaranty.com or by dialing 1-877-281-1545 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-902-6609 (International). A replay of the call will be made available through August 7, 2020. To listen to the replay, dial 1-877-344-7529 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-317-0088 (International), passcode 10142873. The replay will be available one hour after the conference call ends.

Please refer to Assured Guaranty's March 31, 2020 Financial Supplement, which is posted on the Company's website at assuredguaranty.com/agldata, for more information on the Company's financial guaranty portfolio, investment portfolio and other items. The Company is also posting on the same page of its website:

“Public Finance Transactions in 1Q 2020,” which lists the U.S. public finance new issues insured by the Company in first quarter 2020, and

“Structured Finance Transactions at March 31, 2020,” which lists the Company's structured finance exposure as of that date.

In addition, the Company is posting at assuredguaranty.com/presentations the “March 31, 2020 Equity Investor Presentation.” Furthermore, the Company's separate-company subsidiary financial supplements and its Fixed Income Presentation for the current quarter will be posted on the Company's website when available. Those documents will be furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Current Report on Form 8-K.

# # #


Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE: AGO), Bermuda-based holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty provides credit enhancement products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure and structured finance markets and also provides asset management services. More information on Assured Guaranty Ltd. and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com.


22


Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the Company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, Assured Guaranty's calculations of ABV, PVP, net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and total estimated net future premium earnings and statements regarding its capital position and demand for its insurance and other forward-looking statements could be affected by the development, course and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and the governmental and private actions taken in response, and the global consequences of the pandemic and such actions, including their impact on the factors listed below; changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates, credit spreads or general economic conditions; developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect insured obligors’ repayment rates, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, investments of Assured Guaranty or assets it manages; reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; the loss of investors in Assured Guaranty's asset management strategies or the failure to attract new investors to Assured Guaranty's asset management business; the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; insured losses in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures; increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; poor performance of Assured Guaranty's asset management strategies compared to the performance of the asset management strategies of Assured Guaranty's competitors; the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for its investment portfolio, including alternative investments and investments it manages, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to reduced liquidity at a time it requires liquidity or to unanticipated consequences; the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, most of its contracts written in credit default swap form, and VIEs as well as on the mark-to-market of assets Assured Guaranty manages; rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its insurance subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s insurance subsidiaries have insured; the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; the failure of Assured Guaranty to successfully integrate the business of BlueMountain and its associated entities; the possibility that acquisitions made by Assured Guaranty, including its acquisition of BlueMountain, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences; difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; loss of key personnel; the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; natural or man-made catastrophes or pandemics; other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the SEC; other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and management’s response to these factors. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of May 7, 2020, and Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.


23


Contact Information

Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
212-339-0861
[email protected]

Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
212-408-6042
[email protected]








24


agllogoa03.jpg
Assured Guaranty Ltd.
March 31, 2020
Financial Supplement

Table of Contents
 
 
Page
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGL and, together with its subsidiaries, Assured Guaranty or the Company) with the United States (U.S.) Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019 and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2020.






Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward Looking Statements


Any forward looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. Assured Guaranty's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) the development, course and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and the governmental and private actions taken in response, and the global consequences of the pandemic and such actions, including their impact on the factors listed below; (2) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof, interest rates, credit spreads or general economic conditions; (3) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect insured obligors’ repayment rates, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, investments of Assured Guaranty or assets it manages; (4) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's insurance; (5) the loss of investors in Assured Guaranty's asset management strategies or the failure to attract new investors to Assured Guaranty's asset management business; (6) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (7) insured losses in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures; (8) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; (9) poor performance of Assured Guaranty's asset management strategies compared to the performance of the asset management strategies of Assured Guaranty's competitors; (10) the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for its investment portfolio, including alternative investments and investments it manages, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to reduced liquidity at a time it requires liquidity or to unanticipated consequences; (11) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, most of its contracts written in credit default swap form, and variable interest entities as well as on the mark-to-market of assets Assured Guaranty manages; (12) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its insurance subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s insurance subsidiaries have insured; (13) the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms; (14) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (15) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; (16) the failure of Assured Guaranty to successfully integrate the business of BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (BlueMountain) and its associated entities; (17) the possibility that acquisitions made by Assured Guaranty, including its acquisition of BlueMountain (BlueMountain Acquisition), do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to unanticipated consequences; (18) difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy; (19) loss of key personnel; (20) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (21) natural or man-made catastrophes or pandemics; (22) other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. SEC; (23) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and; (24) management’s response to these factors. Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly or review any forward looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.




Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
 
 
 
March 31,
 
 
 
 
 
2020

2019
GAAP Highlights
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
 
 
 
 
$
(55
)
 
$
54

Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share
 
 
 
 
(0.59
)
 
0.52

Weighted average shares outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Basic shares outstanding
 
 
 
 
92.6

 
103.0

Diluted shares outstanding (2)
 
 
 
 
92.6

 
104.0

Effective tax rate on net income
 
 
 
 
7.1
 %
 
7.8
%
GAAP return on equity (ROE) (4)
 
 
 
 
(3.4
)%
 
3.3
%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-GAAP Highlights (1)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted operating income (loss)(1)(6)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Insurance
 
 
 
 
$
85

 
$
111

Asset Management
 
 
 
 
(9
)
 

Corporate
 
 
 
 
(39
)
 
(25
)
Other
 
 
 
 
(4
)
 

Adjusted operating income (loss)
 
 
 
 
$
33

 
$
86

Adjusted operating income (loss) per diluted share (1)(6)
 
 
 
 
$
0.36

 
$
0.82

Effective tax rate on adjusted operating income (3)
 
 
 
 
24.7
 %
 
13.1
%
Adjusted operating ROE (1)(4)(9)
 
 
 
 
2.2
 %
 
5.4
%
Insurance Segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross written premiums (GWP)
 
 
 
 
$
64


$
39

Present value of new business production (PVP) (1)   
 
 
 
 
51


42

Gross par written
 
 
 
 
3,033


2,707

Asset Management Segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wind-down funds net outflows
 
 
 
 
$
(875
)

$

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of
 
March 31, 2020
 
December 31, 2019
 
Amount
 
Per Share
 
Amount
 
Per Share
Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
$
6,240

 
$
69.35

 
$
6,639


$
71.18

Adjusted operating shareholders' equity (1)(7)
6,051

 
67.25

 
6,246

 
66.96

Adjusted book value (1)(8)
8,820

 
98.02

 
9,047

 
96.99

Gain (loss) related to the effect of consolidating variable interest entities (VIE consolidation) included in adjusted operating shareholders' equity
12

 
0.14

 
7

 
0.07

Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted book value
2

 
0.03

 
(4
)
 
(0.05
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shares outstanding at the end of period
90.0

 
 
 
93.3

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Exposure
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty net debt service outstanding
$
363,893

 
 
 
$
374,130

 
 
Financial guaranty net par outstanding
230,898

 
 
 
236,807

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Claims-paying resources (5)
11,011

 
 
 
11,357

 
 
1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement and for a description of the changes to the discount rates used in the calculation of non-GAAP financial measure. The prior period has been recast to present these measures at 3%, instead of a 6% discount rate.
2)
Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were 93.4 million and 104.0 million for the three months ended as of March 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively.
3)
Represents the ratio of adjusted operating provision for income taxes to adjusted operating income before income taxes.
4)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns. See page 7 for additional information on calculation.
5)
See page 12 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.
6)
"Adjusted operating income" was formerly known as "Non-GAAP operating income."
7)
"Adjusted operating shareholders' equity" was formerly known as "Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity."
8)
"Adjusted book value" was formerly known as "Non-GAAP adjusted book value."
9)
"Adjusted operating ROE" was formerly known as "Non-GAAP operating ROE."

1



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
Three Months Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
Effect of refundings and terminations on GAAP measures:
 
 
 
Net earned premiums, pre-tax
$
15

 
$
26

Net income effect
11

 
19

Net income per diluted share
0.12

 
0.18

 
 
 
 
Effect of refundings and terminations on non-GAAP measures:
 
 
 
Operating net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues(1), pre-tax
$
15

 
$
26

Adjusted operating income(1) effect
11

 
19

Adjusted operating income per diluted share (1)
0.12

 
0.18


1)
Condensed consolidated statement of operations items mentioned in this Financial Supplement that are described as operating (i.e. operating net earned premiums) are non-GAAP measures and represent components of adjusted operating income. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)
(dollars in millions)

 
 
As of
 
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2020
 
2019
Assets
 
 
 
 
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
 
Fixed-maturity securities available-for-sale
 
$
8,568


$
8,854

Short-term investments, at fair value
 
933


1,268

Other invested assets
 
121


118

Total investment portfolio
 
9,622

 
10,240

Cash
 
139


169

Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable
 
1,233


1,286

Deferred acquisition costs
 
113


111

Salvage and subrogation recoverable
 
820


747

Financial guaranty variable interest entities' (FG VIEs') assets, at fair value
 
368


442

Assets of consolidated investment vehicles
 
645


572

Goodwill and other intangible assets
 
212


216

Other assets
 
593


543

Total assets
 
$
13,745

 
$
14,326

Liabilities and shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
Unearned premium reserve
 
$
3,706


$
3,736

Loss and loss adjustment expense (LAE) reserve
 
1,050


1,050

Long-term debt
 
1,221


1,235

Credit derivative liabilities
 
265


191

FG VIEs' liabilities with recourse, at fair value
 
312


367

FG VIEs' liabilities without recourse, at fair value
 
82


102

Liabilities of consolidated investment vehicles
 
431


482

Other liabilities
 
405


511

Total liabilities
 
7,472

 
7,674

 
 
 
 
 
Redeemable noncontrolling interests in consolidated investment vehicles
 
8


7

 
 
 
 
 
Common stock
 
1


1

Retained earnings
 
6,100


6,295

Accumulated other comprehensive income
 
138


342

Deferred equity compensation
 
1


1

Total shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.
 
6,240

 
6,639

Nonredeemable noncontrolling interests
 
25


6

Total shareholders' equity
 
6,265

 
6,645

Total liabilities, redeemable noncontrolling interests and shareholders' equity
 
$
13,745

 
$
14,326





3



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Three Months Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
Revenues
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
103


$
118

Net investment income
80


98

Asset management fees
23



Net realized investment gains (losses)
(5
)

(12
)
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives
(77
)

(22
)
Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities (CCS)
48


(9
)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
(9
)

5

Fair value gains (losses) on consolidated investment vehicles
(12
)


Foreign exchange gain (loss) on remeasurement
(62
)

11

Other income (loss)
7


6

Total revenues
96

 
195

Expenses
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
20


46

Interest expense
22


23

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs (DAC)
3


6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
64


41

Other operating expenses
45


23

Total expenses
154

 
139

Income (loss) before provision for income taxes and equity in net earnings of investees
(58
)

56

Equity in net earnings of investees
(4
)

2

Income (loss) before income taxes
(62
)
 
58

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(4
)

4

Net income (loss)
(58
)

54

Less: Noncontrolling interests
(3
)


Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
$
(55
)
 
$
54

 
 
 
 
Earnings per share:
 
 
 
Basic
$
(0.59
)
 
$
0.52

Diluted
$
(0.59
)

$
0.52



4



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Results by Segment
(in millions)

Results by Segment for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2020 and March 31, 2019

 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2020
 
Insurance
 
Asset Management
 
Corporate
 
Other
 
Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues
$
107


$


$


$
(1
)
 
$
106

Net investment income
83




1


(4
)
 
80

Asset management fees


16




7

 
23

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs






(9
)
 
(9
)
Fair value gains (losses) on consolidated investment vehicles

 

 

 
(12
)
 
(12
)
Other income (loss)
6


1


(5
)


 
2

Total revenues
196

 
17

 
(4
)
 
(19
)
 
190

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
18






(6
)
 
12

Interest expense




25


(3
)
 
22

Amortization of DAC and intangible assets
3


3





 
6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
41


18


5



 
64

Other operating expenses
22


7


5


8

 
42

Total expenses
84

 
28

 
35

 
(1
)
 
146

Equity in net earnings of investees
(9
)



(5
)

10

 
(4
)
Income (loss) before income taxes
103

 
(11
)
 
(44
)
 
(8
)
 
40

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
18


(2
)

(5
)

(1
)
 
10

Noncontrolling interests






(3
)
 
(3
)
Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
85

 
$
(9
)
 
$
(39
)
 
$
(4
)
 
$
33


 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2019
 
Insurance
 
Asset Management
 
Corporate
 
Other
 
Total
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues
$
126


$


$


$
(3
)
 
$
123

Net investment income
99




1


(2
)
 
98

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs






5

 
5

Other income (loss)
9




(1
)


 
8

Total revenues
234

 

 

 

 
234

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss expense
44






1

 
45

Interest expense




24


(1
)
 
23

Amortization of DAC and intangible assets
6







 
6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
37




4



 
41

Other operating expenses
20




3



 
23

Total expenses
107

 

 
31

 

 
138

Equity in net earnings of investees
1




1



 
2

Income (loss) before income taxes
128

 

 
(30
)
 

 
98

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
17




(5
)


 
12

Noncontrolling interests







 

Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
111

 
$

 
$
(25
)
 
$

 
$
86


5



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

Adjusted Operating Income Reconciliation
Three Months Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
$
(55
)
 
$
54

Less pre-tax adjustments:

 

Realized gains (losses) on investments
(5
)

(12
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(88
)

(28
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS 
48


(9
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
(57
)

9

Total pre-tax adjustments
(102
)
 
(40
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
14


8

Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
33


$
86

 
 
 
 
Per diluted share:
 
 
 
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
$
(0.59
)
 
$
0.52

Less pre-tax adjustments:

 

Realized gains (losses) on investments
(0.06
)
 
(0.12
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
(0.95
)
 
(0.26
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
0.52

 
(0.09
)
Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves 
(0.62
)
 
0.09

Total pre-tax adjustments
(1.11
)
 
(0.38
)
 
 
 
 
Tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
0.16


0.08

 
 
 
 
Adjusted operating income (loss) (1)
$
0.36

 
$
0.82


1)
Based on the non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding, which were 93.4 million and 104.0 million for the three months ended as of March 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

6



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)

ROE Reconciliation and Calculation
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
2020
 
2019
 
2019
 
2018
Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
$
6,240

 
$
6,639

 
$
6,669

 
$
6,555

Adjusted operating shareholders' equity
6,051

 
6,246

 
6,341

 
6,342

Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted operating shareholders' equity
12

 
7

 
3

 
3

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
 
 
 
March 31,
 
 
 
 

2020

2019
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
 
 
 
 
$
(55
)
 
$
54

Adjusted operating income (loss)
 
 
 
 
33

 
86

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
 
 
 
 
$
6,440

 
$
6,612

Average adjusted operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
6,149

 
6,342

Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in average adjusted operating shareholders' equity
 
 
 
 
10

 
5

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP ROE (1)
 
 
 
 
(3.4
)%
 
3.3
%
Adjusted operating ROE (1)
 
 
 
 
2.2
 %
 
5.4
%

1)
Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


7



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Selected Financial Highlights
GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations (3 of 3)
(dollars in millions)


 
 
As of
 
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2020
 
2019
 
2019
 
2018
Reconciliation of shareholders' equity attributable to AGL to adjusted book value (1):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
 
$
6,240

 
$
6,639

 
$
6,669

 
$
6,555

Less pre-tax reconciling items:
 

 

 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(144
)
 
(56
)
 
(73
)
 
(45
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
101

 
52

 
65

 
74

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
275

 
486

 
419

 
247

Less taxes
 
(43
)
 
(89
)
 
(83
)
 
(63
)
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity
 
6,051

 
6,246

 
6,341

 
6,342

Pre-tax reconciling items:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
113

 
111

 
104

 
105

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
193

 
206

 
214

 
219

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
3,273

 
3,296

 
2,972

 
3,005

Plus taxes
 
(584
)
 
(590
)
 
(518
)
 
(526
)
Adjusted book value
 
$
8,820

 
$
9,047

 
$
8,905

 
$
8,935

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(4), $(2), $(1), and $(1))
 
$
12

 
$
7

 
$
3

 
$
3

 
 


 


 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted book value (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(2), $1, $5, and $4)
 
$
2

 
$
(4
)
 
$
(20
)
 
$
(15
)

(1)
See Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement for a description of the changes to the discount rates used in the calculation of non-GAAP financial measure. The discount rate used for net present value of estimated net future revenues as of March 31, 2020 is 3%. The prior periods have been recast to present the net present value of net future revenues discounted at 3% instead of 6%.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.



8



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Investment Portfolio and Cash
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)
                                           
 
 
Amortized Cost
 
Allowance for Credit Losses
 
Pre-Tax Book Yield
 
After-Tax Book Yield
 
Fair Value
 
Annualized Investment Income (1)
Investment portfolio:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Obligations of states and political subdivisions(2)(4)
 
$
3,952

 
$
(11
)
 
3.63
%
 
3.35
%
 
$
4,204

 
$
143

U.S. government and agencies
 
160

 

 
3.72

 
3.23

 
175

 
6

Corporate securities (4)
 
2,292

 
(39
)
 
2.94

 
2.59

 
2,233

 
66

Mortgage-backed securities:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) (3)(4)
 
737

 
(16
)
 
4.78

 
4.02

 
717

 
35

Commercial mortgage-backed securities
 
399

 

 
3.49

 
3.01

 
414

 
14

Asset-backed securities (4)
 
687

 
(7
)
 
5.48

 
4.41

 
653

 
37

Non-U.S. government securities
 
183

 

 
1.13

 
1.13

 
172

 
2

Total fixed maturity securities
 
8,410

 
(73
)
 
3.63

 
3.22

 
8,568

 
303

Short-term investments
 
933

 

 
0.41

 
0.34

 
933

 
4

Cash (5)
 
139

 

 

 

 
139

 

Total
 
$
9,482

 
$
(73
)
 
3.31
%
 
2.93
%
 
$
9,640

 
$
307

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratings (6):
 
Fair Value
 
% of Portfolio
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
U.S. government and agencies
 
$
175

 
2.0
%
 

 
 
 

 
 
AAA/Aaa
 
1,379

 
16.1

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
AA/Aa
 
3,689

 
43.1

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
A/A
 
1,898

 
22.1

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
BBB
 
728

 
8.5

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Below-investment-grade (BIG) (7)
 
648

 
7.6

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Not rated
 
51

 
0.6

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
Total fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale
 
$
8,568

 
100.0
%
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Duration of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments (in years):
 
 
 
4.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Average ratings of fixed maturity securities and short-term investments
 
 
 
AA-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
2)
Includes obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by S&P Global Ratings, a division of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC (S&P) or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. (Moody's), average A. Includes fair value of $10 million insured by Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. (AGM).
3)
Includes fair value of $190 million in subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of BIG.
4)
Includes securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies.
5)
Cash is not included in the yield calculation.
6)
Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation (loss mitigation securities) or other risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications.
7)
Includes below investment grade securities that were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,086 million in par with carrying value of $636 million.




9


























Insurance Segment

10



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Insurance Segment Results
(dollars in millions)

 
Three Months Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
Revenues
 
 
 
Net earned premiums and credit derivative revenues
$
107


$
126

Net investment income
83


99

Other income (loss)
6


9

Total revenues
196

 
234

 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
Loss expense
18


44

Amortization of DAC
3


6

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
41


37

Other operating expenses
22


20

Total expenses
84

 
107

Equity in net earnings of investees
(9
)

1

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
103

 
128

Provision (benefit) for income taxes
18


17

Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
85


$
111



11



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Claims-Paying Resources
(dollars in millions)
 
 
As of March 31, 2020
 
 
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Corp.
 
Municipal Assurance Corp.
 
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (7)
 
Eliminations(2)
 
Consolidated
Claims-paying resources
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
2,573

 
$
1,668

 
$
277

 
$
823

 
$
(478
)
 
$
4,863

Contingency reserve(1)
 
997

 
623

 
196

 

 
(196
)
 
1,620

Qualified statutory capital
 
3,570

 
2,291

 
473

 
823

 
(674
)
 
6,483

Unearned premium reserve and net deferred ceding commission income(1)
 
1,997

 
423

 
136

 
573

 
(214
)
 
2,915

Loss and LAE reserves (1)
 
145

 
130

 
(2
)
 
162

 
2

 
437

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
5,712

 
2,844

 
607

 
1,558

 
(886
)
 
9,835

Present value of installment premium (8)
 
389

 
188

 

 
199

 

 
776

CCS
 
200

 
200

 

 

 

 
400

Total claims-paying resources (including proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
6,301

 
3,232

 
607

 
1,757

 
(886
)
 
11,011

Adjustment for MAC (3)
 
368

 
239

 

 

 
(607
)
 

Total claims-paying resources (excluding proportionate MAC ownership for AGM and AGC)
 
$
5,933

 
$
2,993

 
$
607

 
$
1,757

 
$
(279
)
 
$
11,011

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Statutory net exposure (4)                     
 
$
127,664

 
$
22,082

 
$
17,379

 
$
60,503

 
$
(575
)
 
$
227,053

Equity method adjustment (3)
 
10,549

 
6,830

 

 

 
(17,379
)
 

Adjusted statutory net exposure (1)
 
$
138,213

 
$
28,912

 
$
17,379

 
$
60,503

 
$
(17,954
)
 
$
227,053

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (4) 
 
$
207,899

 
$
33,729

 
$
25,643

 
$
93,382

 
$
(1,242
)
 
$
359,411

Equity method adjustment (3)
 
15,565

 
10,078

 

 

 
(25,643
)
 

Adjusted net debt service outstanding (1)
 
$
223,464

 
$
43,807

 
$
25,643

 
$
93,382

 
$
(26,885
)
 
$
359,411

Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted net exposure to qualified statutory capital
 
39:1
 
13:1
 
37:1
 
74:1
 

 
35:1
Capital ratio (5)
 
63:1
 
19:1
 
54:1
 
113:1
 

 
55:1
Financial resources ratio (6)
 
35:1
 
14:1
 
42:1
 
53:1
 

 
33:1
Adjusted statutory net exposure to claims-paying resources (incl. MAC adj. for AGM and AGC)
 
22:1
 
9:1
 
29:1
 
34:1
 
 
 
21:1

1)
The numbers shown for AGM and Assured Guaranty Corp. (AGC) have been adjusted to include their indirect share of Municipal Assurance Corp. (MAC). AGM and AGC own 60.7% and 39.3%, respectively, of the outstanding stock of Municipal Assurance Holdings Inc., which owns 100% of the outstanding common stock of MAC. AGM has been adjusted to include 100% share of Assured Guaranty (Europe) plc, AGM's United Kingdom subsidiary. Amounts include financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.
2)
Eliminations are primarily for (i) intercompany surplus notes between AGM and AGC, and (ii) MAC amounts, whose proportionate share are included in AGM and AGC based on ownership percentages, and (iii) eliminations of intercompany deferred ceding commissions. Net exposure and net debt service outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary, and net exposure related to intercompany cessions from AGM and AGC to MAC.
3)
Represents adjustments for AGM's and AGC's interest and indirect ownership of MAC.
4)
Net exposure and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis.
5)
The capital ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
6)
The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing adjusted net debt service outstanding by total claims-paying resources (including MAC adjustment for AGM and AGC).
7)
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) numbers represent the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory accounting practices prescribed or permitted by insurance regulatory authorities, except for contingency reserves.
8)
Discount rate was changed to 3% in first quarter 2020 from a 6% discount rate.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of changes in the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding.


12



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production
(dollars in millions)

Reconciliation of GWP to PVP for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2020 and March 31, 2019 (1) 



Three Months Ended

Three Months Ended


March 31, 2020

March 31, 2019


Public Finance

Structured Finance



Public Finance

Structured Finance




U.S.

Non - U.S.

U.S. 

Non - U.S.

Total

U.S.

Non - U.S.

U.S.

Non - U.S.

Total
Total GWP

$
29


$
34


$
1


$


$
64


$
30


$
2


$
6


$
1


$
39

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments(2)



34


1




35


(2
)

2


5




5

Upfront GWP

29








29


32




1


1


34

Plus: Installment premium PVP



21


1




22




4


4




8

Total PVP

$
29

 
$
21

 
$
1

 
$

 
$
51

 
$
32

 
$
4

 
$
5

 
$
1

 
$
42






















Gross par written

$
2,641


$
377


$
15


$


$
3,033


$
2,016


$
176


$
494


$
21


$
2,707


1)
See Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement for a description of the changes to the discount rates used in the calculation of non-GAAP financial measure. The discount rate used for PVP as of March 31, 2020 is 3%. Prior period has been recast to present PVP discounted at 3% instead of 6%.

2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.


Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

13



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Gross Par Written
(dollars in millions)


Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 
 
Three Months Ended
 
 
March 31, 2020
 
 
Gross Par Written
 
Avg. Internal Rating
Sector:
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
1,070

 
A-
Healthcare
 
438

 
BBB-
Transportation
 
324

 
A-
Higher education
 
254

 
BBB
Tax backed
 
250

 
BBB+
Municipal utilities
 
246

 
BBB+
Housing revenue
 
59

 
BBB-
Total U.S. public finance
 
2,641

 
BBB+
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
Renewable energy
 
377

 
BBB+
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
377

 
BBB+
Total public finance
 
3,018

 
BBB+
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
Structured credit
 
15

 
BBB
Total U.S. structured finance
 
15

 
BBB
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 

 
--
Total structured finance
 
15

 
BBB
 
 
 
 
 
Total gross par written
 
$
3,033

 
BBB+


Please refer to the Glossary for a description of internal ratings and sectors.




14



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
New Business Production by Quarter
(dollars in millions)


 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1Q-19
 
2Q-19
 
3Q-19
 
4Q-19
 
1Q-20
PVP (1):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
32

 
$
44

 
$
46

 
$
79

 
$
29

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
4

 
8

 
16

 
280

 
21

Structured finance - U.S.
 
5

 
3

 
25

 
20

 
1

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
1

 
1

 
2

 
3

 

Total PVP
 
$
42

 
$
56

 
$
89

 
$
382

 
$
51

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Reconciliation of GWP to PVP:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total GWP
 
$
39

 
$
51

 
$
69

 
$
518

 
$
64

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments
 
5

 
7

 
21

 
436

 
35

Upfront GWP
 
34

 
44

 
48

 
82

 
29

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
8

 
12

 
41

 
300

 
22

Total PVP (1)
 
$
42

 
$
56

 
$
89

 
$
382

 
$
51

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross par written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
2,016

 
$
3,657

 
$
4,212

 
$
6,452

 
$
2,641

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
176

 
299

 
237

 
5,635

 
377

Structured finance - U.S.
 
494

 
227

 
438

 
422

 
15

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
21

 

 
22

 
45

 

Total
 
$
2,707

 
$
4,183

 
$
4,909

 
$
12,554

 
$
3,033


1)
See Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement for a description of the changes to the discount rates used in the calculation of non-GAAP financial measure. Prior periods have been recast to present PVP discounted at 3% for first quarter 2020 and all quarters of 2019, instead of a 6% discount rate.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


15



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization(1) and Estimated Future Financial Guaranty Net Premium
and Credit Derivative Revenues
(dollars in millions)

 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial Guaranty Insurance (2)
 
 
 
 
Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding
 
Expected PV Net Earned Premiums
 
Accretion of Discount
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation on Expected PV Net Earned Premiums and Accretion of Discount
 
Future Credit Derivative Revenues (3)
2020 (as of March 31)
 
 
 
$
363,893

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2020 Q2
 
$
5,379

 
358,514

 
$
80

 
$
5

 
$
(1
)
 
$
3

2020 Q3
 
7,263

 
351,251

 
78

 
5

 
(1
)
 
3

2020 Q4
 
5,973

 
345,278

 
76

 
5

 
(1
)
 
3

2021
 
22,899

 
322,379

 
287

 
19

 
(4
)
 
11

2022
 
20,512

 
301,867

 
265

 
18

 
(4
)
 
10

2023
 
17,775

 
284,092

 
246

 
17

 
(3
)
 
9

2024
 
18,641

 
265,451

 
229

 
16

 
(3
)
 
9

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2020-2024
 
98,442

 
265,451

 
1,261

 
85

 
(17
)
 
48

2025-2029
 
83,012

 
182,439

 
914

 
63

 
(12
)
 
40

2030-2034
 
67,053

 
115,386

 
641

 
41

 
(12
)
 
32

2035-2039
 
49,221

 
66,165

 
376

 
27

 
(7
)
 
24

After 2039
 
66,165

 

 
507

 
46

 

 
19

Total
 
$
363,893

 
 
 
$
3,699

 
$
262

 
$
(48
)
 
$
163


1)
Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of March 31, 2020. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations, terminations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization.

2)
See page 19, ‘‘Net Expected Loss to be Expensed.’’

3)
Represents a non-GAAP financial measure. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.







16



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid
(dollars in millions)

Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid(1) for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2020

 
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid/(Recovered)
as of
December 31, 2019
 
Economic Loss Development/(Benefit) During 1Q-20
 
(Paid)/Recovered Losses
During 1Q-20
 
Net Expected Loss to be Paid/(Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2020
Public Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance (2)
 
$
531

 
$
56

 
$
(94
)
 
$
493

Non-U.S public finance
 
23

 
3

 

 
26

Public Finance
 
554

 
59

 
(94
)
 
519

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Structured Finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS (3)
 
146

 
(63
)
 
21

 
104

Other structured finance
 
37

 
1

 
(1
)
 
37

Structured Finance
 
183

 
(62
)
 
20

 
141

Total
 
$
737

 
$
(3
)
 
$
(74
)
 
$
660


1)
Includes expected loss to be paid, economic loss development and paid (recovered) losses for all contracts (i.e. those accounted for as insurance, credit derivatives and FG VIEs).

2)
The total net expected loss for troubled U.S. public finance exposures is net of a credit for estimated future recoveries of claims already paid was $911 million as of March 31, 2020 and $819 million as of December 31, 2019.

3)
Includes future net representations and warranties payable of $106 million as of March 31, 2020 and $53 million as of December 31, 2019.

17



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Loss Measures
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

 
 
 
 
 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2020
 
 
 Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions
 
 

 Loss and
LAE
 
Loss and LAE included in Adjusted Operating Income (1)
 
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation (2)
Public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
5,630

 
 
$
59

 
$
59

 
$

Non-U.S public finance
 
837

 
 

 

 

Public finance
 
6,467

 
 
59

 
59

 

Structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. RMBS
 
1,580

 
 
(42
)
 
(50
)
 
(6
)
Other structured finance
 
191

 
 
3

 
3

 

Structured finance
 
1,771

 
 
(39
)
 
(47
)
 
(6
)
Total
 
$
8,238

 
 
$
20

 
$
12

 
$
(6
)

1)
Adjusted operating income includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives.

2)
The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents amounts included in the condensed consolidated statements of operations and adjusted operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation calculations and its decision making process. Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.


18



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Net Expected Loss to be Expensed (1) 
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)


 
 
GAAP
 
 
 
2020 Q2
 
$
9

2020 Q3
 
9

2020 Q4
 
9

Subtotal 2020
 
27

2021
 
35

2022
 
35

2023
 
33

2024
 
32

 
 

2025-2029
 
134

2030-2034
 
90

2035-2039
 
32

After 2039
 
9

Total expected present value of net expected loss to be expensed(2)
 
427

Future accretion
 
59

Total expected future loss and LAE
 
$
486


1)
The present value of net expected loss to be paid is discounted using risk free rates ranging from 0.0% to 1.39% for U.S. dollar denominated obligations.

2)
Excludes $33 million related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.



19



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 
 
As of March 31, 2020
 
As of December 31, 2019
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Avg. Internal Rating
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
General obligation
 
$
72,340

 
A-
 
$
73,467

 
A-
Tax backed
 
35,715

 
A-
 
37,047

 
A-
Municipal utilities
 
25,926

 
A-
 
26,195

 
A-
Transportation
 
16,105

 
BBB+
 
16,209

 
BBB+
Healthcare
 
7,256

 
BBB+
 
7,148

 
A-
Higher education
 
5,977

 
A-
 
5,916

 
A-
Infrastructure finance
 
5,384

 
A-
 
5,429

 
A-
Housing revenue
 
1,363

 
BBB+
 
1,321

 
BBB+
Investor-owned utilities
 
654

 
A-
 
655

 
A-
Renewable energy
 
207

 
A-
 
210

 
A-
Other public finance
 
1,868

 
A-
 
1,890

 
A-
Total public finance
 
172,795

 
A-
 
175,487

 
A-
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Regulated utilities
 
17,825

 
BBB+
 
18,995

 
BBB+
Infrastructure finance
 
16,684

 
BBB
 
17,952

 
BBB
Sovereign and sub-sovereign
 
10,834

 
A+
 
11,341

 
A+
Renewable energy
 
1,905

 
A
 
1,555

 
A
Pooled infrastructure
 
1,327

 
AAA
 
1,416

 
AAA
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
48,575

 
A-
 
51,259

 
A-
Total public finance
 
$
221,370

 
A-
 
$
226,746

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
3,393

 
BBB-
 
$
3,546

 
BBB-
Life insurance transactions
 
1,794

 
AA-
 
1,776

 
AA-
Pooled corporate obligations
 
1,350

 
AA-
 
1,401

 
AA-
Consumer receivables
 
909

 
A-
 
962

 
A-
Financial products
 
806

 
AA-
 
1,019

 
AA-
Other structured finance
 
554

 
BBB+
 
596

 
BBB+
Total U.S. structured finance
 
8,806

 
A-
 
9,300

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
401

 
A
 
427

 
A
Pooled corporate obligations
 
55

 
BB+
 
55

 
BB+
Other structured finance
 
266

 
A+
 
279

 
A+
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
722

 
A
 
761

 
A
Total structured finance
 
$
9,528

 
A-
 
$
10,061

 
A-
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
230,898

 
A-
 
$
236,807

 
A-


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.



20



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)


Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
Public Finance - U.S.
 
Public Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Structured Finance - U.S.
 
Structured Finance - Non-U.S.
 
Total
Ratings:
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
 
Net Par Outstanding
%
AAA
 
$
375

0.2
%
 
$
2,453

5.1
%
 
$
1,182

13.4
%
 
$
176

24.4
%
 
$
4,186

1.8
%
AA
 
19,037

11.0

 
4,921

10.1

 
3,753

42.7

 
35

4.8

 
27,746

12.0

A
 
92,788

53.7

 
14,621

30.1

 
1,031

11.7

 
172

23.8

 
108,612

47.0

BBB
 
54,965

31.8

 
25,743

53.0

 
1,110

12.6

 
298

41.3

 
82,116

35.6

BIG
 
5,630

3.3

 
837

1.7

 
1,730

19.6

 
41

5.7

 
8,238

3.6

Net Par Outstanding (1)
 
$
172,795

100.0
%
 
$
48,575

100.0
%
 
$
8,806

100.0
%
 
$
722

100.0
%
 
$
230,898

100.0
%

1)
As of March 31, 2020, excludes $1.4 billion of net par attributable to loss mitigation strategies, including loss mitigation securities held in the investment portfolio, which are primarily BIG.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and the Company's internal rating approach, and of the various sectors.





21



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
U.S.:
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
California
 
$
33,270

 
14.4
%
Pennsylvania
 
15,790

 
6.8

New York
 
15,141

 
6.6

Texas
 
14,628

 
6.3

Illinois
 
13,143

 
5.7

New Jersey
 
10,060

 
4.4

Florida
 
7,099

 
3.1

Michigan
 
5,361

 
2.3

Puerto Rico
 
4,270

 
1.8

Colorado
 
4,149

 
1.8

Other
 
49,884

 
21.6

Total U.S. public finance
 
172,795

 
74.8

U.S. structured finance
 
8,806

 
3.8

Total U.S.
 
181,601

 
78.6

 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S.:
 
 
 
 
United Kingdom
 
35,899

 
15.6

France
 
3,063

 
1.3

Canada
 
2,425

 
1.1

Australia
 
1,850

 
0.8

Austria
 
1,252

 
0.5

Other
 
4,808

 
2.1

Total non-U.S.
 
49,297

 
21.4

 
 
 
 
 
Total net par outstanding
 
$
230,898

 
100.0
%

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.



22



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Specialty Insurance and Reinsurance Exposure
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)


 
 
Gross Exposure
 
Net Exposure
 
 
As of March 31, 2020
 
As of December 31, 2019
 
As of March 31, 2020
 
As of December 31, 2019
Life insurance transactions (1)
 
$
1,091

 
$
1,046

 
$
940

 
$
898

Aircraft residual value insurance policies (2)
 
393

 
398

 
238

 
243

Total
 
$
1,484

 
$
1,444

 
$
1,178

 
$
1,141


1)
The life insurance transactions net exposure is projected to increase to approximately $1.0 billion by September 30, 2026.

2)
As of March 31, 2020, $30 million of aircraft residual value insurance exposure was rated BIG.


23



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding
(dollars in millions)

Structured Finance
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
 
 
 
U.S. and Non-U.S. Pooled Corporate
 
U.S. RMBS
 
Financial Products
 
Other Structured Finance
 
Total
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2020 (as of March 31)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
$
9,528

2020 Q2
 
$
20

 
$
161

 
$
5

 
$
76

 
$
262

 
9,266

2020 Q3
 
33

 
165

 
(9
)
 
111

 
300

 
8,966

2020 Q4
 
29

 
148

 
(7
)
 
86

 
256

 
8,710

2021
 
224

 
472

 
2

 
474

 
1,172

 
7,538

2022
 
243

 
405

 
16

 
49

 
713

 
6,825

2023
 
196

 
349

 
10

 
148

 
703

 
6,122

2024
 
67

 
301

 
13

 
126

 
507

 
5,615

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

2020-2024
 
812

 
2,001

 
30

 
1,070

 
3,913

 
5,615

2025-2029
 
197

 
705

 
159

 
713

 
1,774

 
3,841

2030-2034
 
134

 
182

 
537

 
915

 
1,768

 
2,073

2035-2039
 
169

 
499

 
78

 
887

 
1,633

 
440

After 2039
 
93

 
6

 
2

 
339

 
440

 

Total structured finance
 
$
1,405

 
$
3,393

 
$
806

 
$
3,924

 
$
9,528

 


Public Finance
 
 
Estimated Net Par Amortization
 
Estimated Ending Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
 
 
2020 (as of March 31)
 
 
 
$
221,370

2020 Q2
 
$
2,713

 
218,657

2020 Q3
 
4,473

 
214,184

2020 Q4
 
3,254

 
210,930

2021
 
12,184

 
198,746

2022
 
10,798

 
187,948

2023
 
8,566

 
179,382

2024
 
10,032

 
169,350

 
 
 
 
 
2020-2024
 
52,020

 
169,350

2025-2029
 
47,671

 
121,679

2030-2034
 
42,255

 
79,424

2035-2039
 
33,332

 
46,092

After 2039
 
46,092

 

Total public finance
 
$
221,370

 



Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
 
1Q-19
 
2Q-19
 
3Q-19
 
4Q-19
 
1Q-20
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
181,408

 
$
180,537

 
$
176,515

 
$
175,487

 
$
172,795

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
44,615

 
44,488

 
42,882

 
51,259

 
48,575

Structured finance - U.S.
 
10,337

 
9,549

 
9,226

 
9,300

 
8,806

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 
965

 
793

 
752

 
761

 
722

Net par outstanding
 
$
237,325

 
$
235,367

 
$
229,375

 
$
236,807

 
$
230,898



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

24



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (1 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

Exposure to Puerto Rico
 
Par Outstanding
 
Debt Service Outstanding
 
Gross
 
Net
 
Gross
 
Net
   Total
$
4,458

 
$
4,270

 
$
6,845

 
$
6,585



Exposure to Puerto Rico by Risk
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
 
 
AGM
 
AGC
 
AG Re
 
Eliminations (1)
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
 
Gross Par Outstanding
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds (2)
$
611

 
$
268

 
$
375

 
$
(1
)
 
$
1,253

 
$
1,294

Puerto Rico Public Buildings Authority (PBA) (2)
7

 
140

 

 
(7
)
 
140

 
145

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways and Transportation Authority (PRHTA) (Transportation revenue) (2)
223

 
480

 
187

 
(79
)
 
811

 
842

PRHTA (Highways revenue) (2)
345

 
74

 
35

 

 
454

 
515

Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority (PRCCDA)

 
152

 

 

 
152

 
152

Puerto Rico Infrastructure Financing Authority (PRIFA)

 
15

 
1

 

 
16

 
16

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA)(2)
525

 
71

 
226

 

 
822

 
838

Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority (PRASA) (3)

 
284

 
89

 

 
373

 
373

Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency (MFA) (3)
153

 
33

 
62

 

 
248

 
282

University of Puerto Rico (U of PR) (3)

 
1

 

 

 
1

 
1

Total exposure to Puerto Rico
$
1,864

 
$
1,518

 
$
975

 
$
(87
)
 
$
4,270

 
$
4,458


1)
Net par outstanding eliminations relate to second-to-pay policies under which an Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary guarantees an obligation already insured by another Assured Guaranty insurance subsidiary.

2)
As of the date of this filing, the seven-member financial oversight board established by the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) has certified a filing under Title III of PROMESA for these exposures.

3)
As of the date of this filing, the Company has not paid claims on these credits.






25



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (2 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Par Outstanding of Puerto Rico
 
2020 (2Q)
2020 (3Q)
2020 (4Q)
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030 - 2034
2035 - 2039
2040 - 2044
2045 - 2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
$

$
141

$

$
15

$
37

$
14

$
73

$
68

$
34

$
90

$
33

$
64

$
419

$
265

$

$

$
1,253

PBA

5


13


7


6

11

40

1


38

19



140

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


PRHTA (Transportation revenue)

25


18

28

33

4

29

24

29

34

47

166

292

82


811

PRHTA (Highway revenue)

22


35

6

32

33

34

1


9

11

177

94



454

PRCCDA









19



76

57



152

PRIFA





2








7

7


16

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


PREPA

48


28

28

95

93

68

106

105

68

39

140

4



822

PRASA






1

25

27

28

29



2

15

246

373

MFA

45


40

40

22

18

17

34

12

10

6

4




248

U of PR












1




1

Total
$

$
286

$

$
149

$
139

$
205

$
222

$
247

$
237

$
323

$
184

$
167

$
1,021

$
740

$
104

$
246

$
4,270





26



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Exposure to Puerto Rico (3 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

Amortization Schedule of Net Debt Service Outstanding of Puerto Rico
 
2020 (2Q)
2020 (3Q)
2020 (4Q)
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030 - 2034
2035 - 2039
2040 - 2044
2045 - 2047
Total
Commonwealth Constitutionally Guaranteed
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico - General Obligation Bonds
$

$
173

$

$
74

$
94

$
70

$
128

$
119

$
82

$
136

$
74

$
103

$
572

$
294

$

$

$
1,919

PBA

9


20

6

13

6

13

17

45

3

3

50

20



205

Public Corporations - Certain Revenues Potentially Subject to Clawback
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


PRHTA (Transportation revenue)

46


59

68

72

41

65

59

63

66

78

294

356

89


1,356

PRHTA (Highway revenue)

34


58

27

52

51

51

17

15

25

26

233

101



690

PRCCDA

3


7

7

7

7

7

7

26

6

6

103

61



247

PRIFA



1

1

3

1

1

1

1


1

3

10

8


31

Other Public Corporations
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


PREPA
3

65

3

63

62

128

121

91

126

122

81

47

155

5



1,072

PRASA

10


19

19

19

20

44

44

44

44

14

68

70

82

272

769

MFA

52


50

48

28

23

21

37

14

11

6

5




295

U of PR












1




1

Total
$
3

$
392

$
3

$
351

$
332

$
392

$
398

$
412

$
390

$
466

$
310

$
284

$
1,484

$
917

$
179

$
272

$
6,585





27



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
U.S. RMBS Profile
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

                
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure
Ratings:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime
First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
AAA
 
$
14

 
$
120

 
$
17

 
$
780

 
$

 
$
931

AA
 
34

 
101

 
11

 
188

 
3

 
337

A
 

 
29

 

 
27

 
125

 
181

BBB
 

 
9

 

 
7

 
348

 
364

BIG
 
57

 
329

 
32

 
995

 
167

 
1,580

Total exposures
 
$
105


$
588


$
60


$
1,997


$
643


$
3,393



Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure
 
Year
insured:
 
Prime First Lien
 
Alt-A First Lien
 
Option ARMs
 
Subprime
First Lien
 
Second Lien
 
Total Net Par Outstanding
2004 and prior
 
$
21

 
$
18

 
$
1

 
$
539

 
$
44

 
$
623

2005
 
48

 
213

 
23

 
219

 
123

 
626

2006
 
36

 
41

 
10

 
263

 
206

 
556

2007
 

 
316

 
26

 
934

 
270

 
1,546

2008
 

 

 

 
42

 

 
42

  Total exposures
 
$
105

 
$
588

 
$
60

 
$
1,997

 
$
643

 
$
3,393



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of sectors.

























28



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
Ratings:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
AAA
 
$
201

 
14.9
%
 
47.1%
 
75.4%
AA
 
748

 
55.1
%
 
40.4%
 
50.1%
A
 
274

 
20.2
%
 
43.1%
 
46.2%
BBB
 
94

 
6.9
%
 
35.7%
 
36.2%
BIG
 
40

 
2.9
%
 
N/A
 
N/A
Total exposures
 
$
1,357

 
100.0
%
 
41.5%
 
51.2%


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class
 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
% of Total
 
Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Current Credit Enhancement
 
Avg. Rating
Asset class:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Trust preferred
 
 
 


 
 
 
 
 
 
Banks and insurance
 
$
538

 
39.7
%
 
44.2%
 
59.6%
 
AA
U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts
 
110

 
8.1

 
47.4%
 
64.1%
 
A
Collateralized bond obligations / collateralized loan obligations
 
595

 
43.8

 
37.9%
 
41.3%
 
A+
Other pooled corporates
 
114

 
8.4

 
N/A
 
N/A
 
A+
Total exposures
 
$
1,357

 
100.0
%
 
41.5%
 
51.2%
 
AA-


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of internal ratings, performance indicators and sectors.




29



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 3)
(dollars in millions)

BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type
                                                                
 
 
As of
 
 
March 31,

December 31,
 
 
2020

2019
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
Tax backed
 
$
1,855

 
$
1,858

General obligation
 
1,840

 
1,969

Municipal utilities
 
1,472

 
1,472

Higher education
 
173

 
178

Transportation
 
99

 
100

Infrastructure finance
 
35

 
35

Healthcare
 
32

 
32

Housing revenue
 
17

 
17

Renewable energy
 

 
3

Other public finance
 
107

 
107

Total U.S. public finance
 
5,630

 
5,771

Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
Sovereign and sub-sovereign
 
405

 
415

Infrastructure finance
 
393

 
444

Renewable energy
 
39

 
39

Total non-U.S. public finance
 
837

 
898

Total public finance
 
$
6,467

 
$
6,669

 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
RMBS
 
$
1,580

 
$
1,618

Consumer receivables
 
103

 
108

Life insurance transactions
 
40

 
40

Other structured finance
 
7

 
30

Total U.S. structured finance
 
1,730

 
1,796

Non-U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
Pooled corporate obligations
 
40

 
40

Other structured finance
 
1

 
1

Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
41

 
41

Total structured finance
 
$
1,771

 
$
1,837

Total BIG net par outstanding
 
$
8,238

 
$
8,506



Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.



30



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 3)
(dollars in millions)


Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category(1)  
 
 
 
As of
 
 
March 31,
 
December 31,
 
 
2020
 
2019
BIG Category 1
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
$
1,441

 
$
1,582

Non-U.S. public finance
 
793

 
854

U.S. structured finance
 
195

 
191

Non-U.S. structured finance
 
40

 
40

Total BIG Category 1
 
2,469

 
2,667

BIG Category 2
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
430

 
430

Non-U.S. public finance
 

 

U.S. structured finance
 
123

 
136

Non-U.S. structured finance
 

 

Total BIG Category 2
 
553

 
566

BIG Category 3
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance
 
3,759

 
3,759

Non-U.S. public finance
 
44

 
44

U.S. structured finance
 
1,412

 
1,469

Non-U.S. structured finance
 
1

 
1

Total BIG Category 3
 
5,216

 
5,273

BIG Total
 
$
8,238

 
$
8,506


1)
Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring the Company's portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. BIG Category 1: Below-investment-grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make future losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. BIG Category 2: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims which are claims that the Company expects to be reimbursed within one year) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below-investment-grade transactions for which future losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid.


Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of various sectors.




31



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

Public Finance and Structured Finance BIG Exposures with Revenue Sources Greater Than $50 Million

 
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal
Rating (1)
 
60+ Day Delinquencies
Name or description
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
$
1,409

 
CCC
 
 
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,265

 
CCC
 
 
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
822

 
CCC
 
 
Puerto Rico Aqueduct & Sewer Authority
 
373

 
CCC
 
 
Puerto Rico Municipal Finance Agency
 
248

 
CCC
 
 
Jackson Water & Sewer System, Mississippi
 
185

 
BB
 
 
Virgin Islands Public Finance Authority
 
166

 
BB
 
 
Puerto Rico Convention Center District Authority
 
152

 
CCC
 
 
Stockton City, California
 
107

 
B
 
 
Harrisburg Parking System, Pennsylvania
 
76

 
BB
 
 
Alabama State University
 
75

 
BB+
 
 
Atlantic City, New Jersey
 
56

 
BB
 
 
Coatesville Area School District, Pennsylvania
 
53

 
BB
 
 
Virgin Islands Water and Power Authority
 
53

 
CCC
 
 
Total U.S. public finance
 
$
5,040

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-U.S. public finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Valencia Fair
 
$
295

 
BB+
 
 
Road Management Services PLC (A13 Highway)
 
172

 
B+
 
 
M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag
 
119

 
BB+
 
 
CountyRoute (A130) plc
 
70

 
BB-
 
 
Total non-U.S. public finance
 
$
656

 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
5,696

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
U.S. structured finance:
 
 
 
 
 
 
RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
$
172

 
CCC
 
14.9%
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
155

 
CCC
 
27.0%
Option One Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-HL1
 
110

 
CCC
 
24.2%
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
102

 
CCC
 
17.5%
Argent Securities Inc., Asset Backed Pass Through Certificates 2005-W4
 
93

 
CCC
 
13.2%
New Century 2005-A
 
84

 
CCC
 
14.4%
MABS 2007-NCW
 
62

 
BB
 
18.4%
ACE 2007-SL1
 
52

 
CCC
 
3.0%
ACE 2007-D1
 
52

 
CCC
 
22.3%
Subtotal RMBS
 
$
882

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-RMBS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
National Collegiate Trust Series 2006-2
 
$
57

 
CCC
 
3.0%
Subtotal non-RMBS
 
$
57

 
 
 
 
Total U.S. structured finance
 
$
939

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total non-U.S. structured finance
 
$

 
 
 
 
Total
 
$
939

 
 
 
 

1)
Transactions below B- are categorized as CCC.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the Company's internal rating approach, presentation of net par outstanding and a description of performance indicators and sectors.

32



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures by Revenue Source
                                                                                          
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal
Rating (1)
New Jersey (State of)
 
$
3,897

 
BBB
Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of)
 
1,978

 
A-
New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority
 
1,891

 
A-
Illinois (State of)
 
1,752

 
BBB
Puerto Rico, General Obligation, Appropriations and Guarantees of the Commonwealth
 
1,409

 
CCC
Puerto Rico Highways & Transportation Authority
 
1,265

 
CCC
North Texas Tollway Authority
 
1,127

 
A
California (State of)
 
1,062

 
AA-
Foothills - Eastern Transportation Corridor, California
 
1,001

 
BBB
CommonSpirit Health, Colorado
 
1,000

 
A-
New York (City of), New York
 
992

 
AA-
Metro Washington Airports Authority (Dulles Toll Road)
 
990

 
BBB
Great Lakes Water Authority (Sewerage), Michigan
 
970

 
A-
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of)
 
951

 
AA-
San Diego Family Housing, LLC
 
944

 
AA
Philadelphia School District, Pennsylvania
 
912

 
A-
Chicago Public Schools, Illinois
 
912

 
BBB-
Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority, Illinois
 
887

 
BBB-
Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources
 
875

 
AA
Port Authority of New York and New Jersey
 
864

 
BBB-
Suffolk County, New York
 
847

 
BBB
Alameda Corridor Transportation Authority, California
 
833

 
BBB+
Long Island Power Authority
 
832

 
A-
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
 
822

 
CCC
Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission
 
773

 
A-
Wisconsin (State of)
 
753

 
A+
ProMedica Healthcare Obligated Group, Ohio
 
750

 
BBB
Montefiore Medical Center, New York
 
749

 
BBB-
Nassau County, New York
 
708

 
A-
Jefferson County Alabama Sewer
 
704

 
BBB
Philadelphia (City of), Pennsylvania
 
684

 
BBB+
Connecticut (State of)
 
675

 
A-
Arizona (State of)
 
660

 
A+
Regional Transportation Authority (Sales Tax), Illinois
 
659

 
AA-
Georgia Board of Regents
 
635

 
A
Pittsburgh Water & Sewer, Pennsylvania
 
618

 
A-
LCOR Alexandria LLC
 
594

 
BBB+
North Carolina Turnpike Authority
 
584

 
BBB-
Oglethorpe Power Corporation, Georgia
 
575

 
BBB
Chicago (City of), Illinois
 
553

 
BBB
Garden State Preservation Trust (Open Space & Farmland), New Jersey
 
547

 
BBB+
Sacramento County, California
 
527

 
A-
New Jersey Turnpike Authority
 
519

 
A-
Clark County School District, Nevada
 
506

 
BBB+
Yankee Stadium LLC New York City Industrial Development Authority
 
457

 
BBB
New Haven (City of), Connecticut
 
445

 
BBB-
New York State Thruway Authority
 
445

 
A-
Harris County - Houston Sports Authority, Texas
 
438

 
A-
Great Lakes Water Authority (Water), Michigan
 
429

 
A-
Oregon School Boards Association, Oregon
 
424

 
AA-
   Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures
 
$
44,424

 
 

1)
Transactions below B- are categorized as CCC.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

33



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

25 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures
                                                                                                            
Credit Name:
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal
Rating (1)
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
$
530

 
AA
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
500

 
AA-
SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A
 
395

 
A+
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
352

 
AA-
Fortress Credit Opportunities VII CLO Limited
 
257

 
AA-
Private US Insurance Securitization
 
224

 
AA-
ABPCI Direct Lending Fund CLO I Ltd
 
208

 
A
SLM Private Credit Student Loan Trust 2006-C
 
181

 
AA-
Option One 2007-FXD2
 
172

 
CCC
Soundview 2007-WMC1
 
155

 
CCC
Timberlake Financial, LLC Floating Insured Notes
 
141

 
BBB+
Brightwood Fund III Static 2018-1, LLC
 
130

 
AA
CWABS 2007-4
 
115

 
A+
Soundview Home Equity Loan Trust 2006-OPT1
 
111

 
AAA
New Century Home Equity Loan Trust 2006-1
 
111

 
AAA
Option One Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-HL1
 
110

 
CCC
Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1
 
102

 
CCC
Countrywide HELOC 2006-I
 
98

 
A
OwnIt Mortgage Loan ABS Certificates 2006-3
 
93

 
AAA
Argent Securities Inc., Asset Backed Pass Through Certificates 2005-W4
 
93

 
CCC
CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9
 
88

 
A+
New Century 2005-A
 
84

 
CCC
Structured Asset Investment Loan Trust 2006-1
 
82

 
AAA
Countrywide 2007-13
 
80

 
AA
Preferred Term Securities XXIV, Ltd.
 
79

 
AA-
   Total top 25 U.S. structured finance exposures
 
$
4,491

 
 

1)
Transactions below B- are categorized as CCC.

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

34



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 3)
As of March 31, 2020
(dollars in millions)

50 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures by Revenue Source
                                                                                                    
Credit Name:
Country
 
Net Par Outstanding
 
Internal Rating
Southern Water Services Limited
United Kingdom
 
$
2,589

 
A-
Quebec Province
Canada
 
1,993

 
A+
Thames Water Utility Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,944

 
A-
Societe des Autoroutes du Nord et de l'Est de France S.A.
France
 
1,662

 
BBB+
Southern Gas Networks PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,635

 
BBB
Dwr Cymru Financing Limited (Welsh Water Plc)
United Kingdom
 
1,552

 
A-
Anglian Water Services Financing PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,411

 
A-
National Grid Gas PLC
United Kingdom
 
1,237

 
BBB+
British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC)
United Kingdom
 
1,212

 
A+
Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC
France, United Kingdom
 
1,174

 
BBB
Verbund (Lease and Sublease of Hydro-Electric equipment)
Austria
 
1,104

 
AAA
Capital Hospitals (Issuer) PLC
United Kingdom
 
867

 
BBB-
Aspire Defence Finance plc
United Kingdom
 
801

 
BBB+
Verdun Participations 2 S.A.S.
France
 
702

 
BBB-
National Grid Company PLC
United Kingdom
 
675

 
BBB+
Yorkshire Water Services Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
631

 
A-
South Lanarkshire Schools
United Kingdom
 
573

 
BBB
Sydney Airport Finance Company
Australia
 
547

 
BBB+
Campania Region - Healthcare receivable
Italy
 
547

 
BB+
Envestra Limited
Australia
 
541

 
A-
Coventry & Rugby Hospital Company Plc Walsgrave Hospital Guaranteed Secured
United Kingdom
 
521

 
BBB-
Severn Trent Water Utilities Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
500

 
BBB+
Derby Healthcare PLC
United Kingdom
 
489

 
BBB
Wessex Water Services Finance plc
United Kingdom
 
462

 
BBB+
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
442

 
AAA
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
442

 
AAA
International Infrastructure Pool
United Kingdom
 
442

 
AAA
Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals PLC
United Kingdom
 
441

 
BBB
North Staffordshire PFI, 32-year EIB Index-Linked Facility
United Kingdom
 
440

 
BBB-
NewHospitals (St Helens & Knowsley) Finance PLC
United Kingdom
 
436

 
BBB
United Utilities Water PLC
United Kingdom
 
431

 
BBB+
Comision Federal De Electricidad (CFE) El Cajon Project
Mexico
 
424

 
BBB-
South East Water
United Kingdom
 
405

 
BBB+
Scotland Gas Networks plc
United Kingdom
 
399

 
BBB
Q Energy II
Spain
 
378

 
BBB+
NATS (En Route) PLC
United Kingdom
 
365

 
A
The Hospital Company (QAH Portsmouth) Limited
United Kingdom
 
361

 
BBB
Private International Sub-Sovereign Transaction
United Kingdom
 
350

 
AA-
BBI (DBCT) Finance Pty Limited
Australia
 
325

 
BBB
Octagon Healthcare Funding PLC
United Kingdom
 
316

 
BBB
Private International Sub-Sovereign Transaction
United Kingdom
 
309

 
AA
Bakethin Finance Plc
United Kingdom
 
297

 
A-
Leeds Hospital - St. James's Oncology Financing plc
United Kingdom
 
297

 
BBB
Valencia Fair
Spain
 
295

 
BB+
Catalyst Healthcare (Romford) Financing PLC
United Kingdom
 
292

 
BBB
Republic of Poland
Poland
 
289

 
A-
Dali Capital PLC-Northumbrian Water
United Kingdom
 
281

 
BBB+
Western Power Distribution (South Wales) PLC
United Kingdom
 
279

 
BBB+
Integrated Accommodation Services PLC
United Kingdom
 
272

 
BBB+
Private International Sub-Sovereign Transaction
United Kingdom
 
267

 
AA-
Total top 50 non-U.S. exposures
 
 
$
34,644

 
 

Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors.

35
















Asset Management Segment


36



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Asset Management Results (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2020
Revenues
 
Management fees:
 
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs)
$
5

Opportunity funds
2

Wind-down funds
9

Total management fees
16

Other income
1

Total revenues
17

 
 
Expenses
 
Amortization of intangible assets
3

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
18

Other operating expenses
7

Total expenses
28

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
(11
)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(2
)
Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
(9
)



37



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Asset Management Results (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions)

Assets Under Management for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2020

 
CLOs
 
Opportunity Funds
 
Wind-Down Funds
 
Total
Rollforward:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Assets under management (AUM), December 31, 2019
$
12,758


$
1,023


$
4,046

 
$
17,827

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Inflows


88



 
88

Outflows:





 
 
Redemptions





 

Distributions
(67
)

(85
)

(875
)
 
(1,027
)
Total outflows
(67
)
 
(85
)
 
(875
)
 
(1,027
)
Net flows
(67
)
 
3

 
(875
)
 
(939
)
Change in fund value
(46
)

(57
)

(306
)
 
(409
)
AUM, March 31, 2020 (1)
$
12,645

 
$
969

 
$
2,865

 
$
16,479

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of March 31, 2020:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Funded AUM (2)
$
12,634


$
849


$
2,843

 
$
16,326

Unfunded AUM (2)
11


120


22

 
153

 





 
 
Fee Earning AUM (3)
$
6,038


$
814


$
2,601

 
$
9,453

Non-Fee Earning AUM (3)
6,607


155


264

 
7,026

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
As of December 31, 2019:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Funded AUM (2)
$
12,721

 
$
796

 
$
3,980

 
$
17,497

Unfunded AUM (2)
37

 
227

 
66

 
330

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fee Earning AUM (3)
$
3,438

 
$
695

 
$
3,838

 
$
7,971

Non-Fee Earning AUM (3)
9,320

 
328

 
208

 
9,856

_____________________
1)
Includes AUM of the insurance company subsidiaries (intercompany AUM) of $216 million in opportunity funds and $41 million in a CLO Warehouse Fund (US) L.P.
    
2)
Funded AUM refers to assets that have been deployed or invested into the funds or CLOs. Unfunded AUM refers to unfunded capital commitments from closed-end funds and CLO warehouse fund.

3)
Fee Earning AUM refers to assets where Assured Investment Management collects fees or has elected not to waive or rebate fees to investors. Non-Fee Earning AUM refers to assets where Assured Investment Management does not collect fees or has elected to waive or rebate fees to investors.


38













Corporate Division


39



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Corporate Results
(dollars in millions)

 
Three Months Ended
 
March 31,
 
2020
 
2019
 
 
 
 
Total revenues
$
(4
)
 
$

 
 
 
 
Expenses
 
 
 
Interest expense
25


24

Employee compensation and benefit expenses
5


4

Other operating expenses
5


3

Total expenses
35

 
31

Equity in net earnings of investees
(5
)
 
1

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
(44
)
 
(30
)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(5
)

(5
)
Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
(39
)

$
(25
)


40














Other


41



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Other Results
(dollars in millions)

 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2020
 
FG VIEs
 
Consolidated Investment Vehicles
 
Intersegment Eliminations and Reclasses
 
Total Other
 
(in millions)
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
(1
)
 
$

 
$

 
$
(1
)
Net investment income
(1
)
 

 
(3
)
 
(4
)
Asset management fees

 
(1
)
 
8

 
7

Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
(9
)
 

 

 
(9
)
Fair value gains (losses) on consolidated investment vehicles

 
(12
)
 

 
(12
)
Total revenues
(11
)
 
(13
)
 
5

 
(19
)
Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
(6
)
 

 

 
(6
)
Interest expense

 

 
(3
)
 
(3
)
Other operating expenses

 

 
8

 
8

Total expenses
(6
)
 

 
5

 
(1
)
Equity in net earnings of investees

 
10

 

 
10

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes
(5
)
 
(3
)
 

 
(8
)
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(1
)
 

 

 
(1
)
Noncontrolling interests

 
(3
)
 

 
(3
)
Adjusted operating income (loss)
$
(4
)
 
$

 
$

 
$
(4
)

 
Three Months Ended March 31, 2019
 
FG VIEs
 
Consolidated Investment Vehicles
 
Intersegment Eliminations and Reclasses
 
Total Other
 
(in millions)
Revenues
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
$
(3
)
 
$

 
$

 
$
(3
)
Net investment income
(1
)
 

 
(1
)
 
(2
)
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs
5

 

 

 
5

Total revenues
1

 

 
(1
)
 

Expenses
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Loss and LAE
1

 

 

 
1

Interest expense

 

 
(1
)
 
(1
)
Other operating expenses

 

 

 

Total expenses
1

 

 
(1
)
 

Equity in net earnings of investees

 

 

 

Adjusted operating income (loss) before income taxes

 

 

 

Provision (benefit) for income taxes

 

 

 

Noncontrolling interests

 

 

 

Adjusted operating income (loss)
$

 
$

 
$

 
$



42














Summary


43



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of Financial and Statistical Data
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
 
 
As of and for Three
Months Ended
March 31, 2020
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
 
2019
 
2018
 
2017
 
2016
GAAP Summary Statements of Operations Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net earned premiums
 
$
103

 
$
476

 
$
548

 
$
690

 
$
864

Net investment income
 
80

 
378

 
395

 
417

 
408

Total expenses
 
154

 
503

 
422

 
748

 
660

Income (loss) before income taxes
 
(62
)
 
460

 
580

 
991

 
1,017

Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
 
(55
)
 
402

 
521

 
730

 
881

Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share
 
(0.59
)
 
4.00

 
4.68

 
5.96

 
6.56

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total investments and cash
 
$
9,761

 
$
10,409

 
$
10,977

 
$
11,539

 
$
11,103

Total assets
 
13,745

 
14,326

 
13,603

 
14,433

 
14,151

Unearned premium reserve
 
3,706

 
3,736

 
3,512

 
3,475

 
3,511

Loss and LAE reserve
 
1,050

 
1,050

 
1,177

 
1,444

 
1,127

Long-term debt
 
1,221

 
1,235

 
1,233

 
1,292

 
1,306

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL
 
6,240

 
6,639

 
6,555

 
6,839

 
6,504

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL per share
 
69.35

 
71.18

 
63.23

 
58.95

 
50.82

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
363,893

 
$
374,130

 
$
371,586

 
$
401,118

 
$
437,535

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
365,356

 
375,776

 
375,080

 
408,492

 
455,000

Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
230,898

 
236,807

 
241,802

 
264,952

 
296,318

Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
232,153

 
238,156

 
244,191

 
269,386

 
307,474

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis)(1)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Financial guaranty:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
$
358,233

 
$
367,630

 
$
359,499

 
$
373,340

 
$
401,004

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)
 
359,696

 
369,251

 
362,974

 
380,478

 
417,072

Net par outstanding (end of period)
 
225,875

 
230,984

 
230,664

 
239,003

 
262,468

Gross par outstanding (end of period)
 
227,131

 
232,333

 
233,036

 
243,217

 
272,286

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Claims-paying resources(2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policyholders' surplus
 
$
4,863

 
$
5,056

 
$
5,148

 
$
5,305

 
$
5,126

Contingency reserve
 
1,620

 
1,607

 
1,663

 
1,750

 
2,008

Qualified statutory capital
 
6,483

 
6,663

 
6,811

 
7,055

 
7,134

Unearned premium reserve and net deferred ceding commission income
 
2,915

 
2,961

 
2,950

 
2,849

 
2,672

Loss and LAE reserves
 
437

 
529

 
1,023

 
1,092

 
888

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves
 
9,835

 
10,153

 
10,784

 
10,996

 
10,694

Present value of installment premium (3)
 
776

 
804

 
577

 
559

 
616

CCS and standby line of credit
 
400

 
400

 
400

 
400

 
400

Excess of loss reinsurance facility
 

 

 
180

 
180

 
360

Total claims-paying resources
 
$
11,011

 
$
11,357

 
$
11,941

 
$
12,135

 
$
12,070

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ratios:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net exposure to qualified statutory capital
 
35
:1
 
35
:1
 
34
:1
 
34
:1
 
37
:1
Capital ratio
 
55
:1
 
55
:1
 
53
:1
 
53
:1
 
56
:1
Financial resources ratio
 
33
:1
 
32
:1
 
30
:1
 
31
:1
 
33
:1
Adjusted statutory net exposure to claims-paying resources
 
21
:1
 
20
:1
 
19
:1
 
20
:1
 
22
:1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Par and Debt Service Written (FG and specialty)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gross debt service written:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
4,248

 
$
28,054

 
$
31,989

 
$
26,988

 
$
25,423

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
434

 
17,907

 
7,166

 
2,811

 
848

Structured finance - U.S.
 
19

 
1,704

 
1,191

 
500

 
1,143

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
88

 
369

 
202

 
30

Total gross debt service written
 
$
4,701

 
$
47,753

 
$
40,715

 
$
30,501

 
$
27,444

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net debt service written
 
$
4,701

 
$
47,731

 
$
40,630

 
$
30,476

 
$
27,444

Net par written
 
3,033

 
24,331

 
24,538

 
17,962

 
17,854

Gross par written
 
3,033

 
24,353

 
24,624

 
18,024

 
17,854


1)
Statutory amounts prepared on a consolidated basis. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners Annual Statements for U.S. Domiciled Insurance Subsidiaries are prepared on a stand-alone basis.
2)
See page 12 for additional detail on claims-paying resources.
3)
Discount rate was changed from 6% to 3% in first quarter 2020. Prior periods have been updated to reflect the change.

Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.
Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of the presentation of net debt service and net par outstanding and of the various sectors.

44



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations(1) (1 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
Three Months Ended
March 31, 2020
 
Year Ended December 31,
 
 
2019
 
2018
 
2017
 
2016
Total GWP
 
$
64

 
$
677

 
$
612

 
$
307

 
$
154

Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP adjustments (2)
 
35

 
469

 
119

 
99

 
(10
)
Upfront GWP
 
29

 
208

 
493

 
208

 
164

Plus: Installment premium PVP
 
22

 
361

 
204

 
107

 
61

Total PVP (3)
 
$
51

 
$
569

 
$
697

 
$
315

 
$
225

 
 


 
 
 
 
 


 


PVP (3):
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Public finance - U.S.
 
$
29

 
$
201

 
$
402

 
$
197

 
$
161

Public finance - non-U.S.
 
21

 
308

 
116

 
89

 
29

Structured finance - U.S.
 
1

 
53

 
167

 
14

 
34

Structured finance - non-U.S.
 

 
7

 
12

 
15

 
1

Total PVP
 
$
51

 
$
569

 
$
697

 
$
315

 
$
225

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted operating income reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL
 
$
(55
)
 
$
402

 
$
521

 
$
730

 
$
881

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(5
)
 
22

 
(32
)
 
40

 
(30
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(88
)
 
(10
)
 
101

 
43

 
36

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
48

 
(22
)
 
14

 
(2
)
 

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(57
)
 
22

 
(32
)
 
57

 
(33
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(102
)
 
12

 
51

 
138

 
(27
)
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
14

 
(1
)
 
(12
)
 
(69
)
 
13

Adjusted operating income (loss)
 
$
33

 
$
391

 
$
482

 
$
661

 
$
895

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted operating income per diluted share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income (loss) attributable to AGL per diluted share
 
$
(0.59
)
 
$
4.00

 
$
4.68

 
$
5.96

 
$
6.56

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Realized gains (losses) on investments
 
(0.06
)
 
0.22

 
(0.29
)
 
0.33

 
(0.23
)
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(0.95
)
 
(0.11
)
 
0.90

 
0.35

 
0.27

Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
0.52

 
(0.22
)
 
0.13

 
(0.02
)
 

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of premiums receivable and loss and LAE reserves
 
(0.62
)
 
0.21

 
(0.29
)
 
0.46

 
(0.25
)
Total pre-tax adjustments
 
(1.11
)
 
0.10

 
0.45

 
1.12

 
(0.21
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax effect on pre-tax adjustments
 
0.16

 
(0.01
)
 
(0.11
)
 
(0.57
)
 
0.09

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted operating income (loss) per diluted share
 
$
0.36

 
$
3.91

 
$
4.34

 
$
5.41

 
$
6.68

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

1)
Please refer to the explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement.

2)
Includes present value of new business on installment policies discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP adjustments.

3)
See Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement for a description of the changes to the discount rates used in the calculation of non-GAAP financial measure. The discount rate used for PVP as of March 31, 2020 is 3%. The prior periods have been recast to present PVP discounted at 3% instead of 6%.


45



Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Summary of GAAP to Non-GAAP Reconciliations(1) (2 of 2)
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
 
As of
March 31, 2020
 
As of December 31,
 
 
2019
 
2018
 
2017
 
2016
Adjusted book value reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL
 
$
6,240

 
$
6,639

 
$
6,555

 
$
6,839

 
$
6,504

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(144
)
 
(56
)
 
(45
)
 
(146
)
 
(189
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
101

 
52

 
74

 
60

 
62

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
275

 
486

 
247

 
487

 
316

Less taxes
 
(43
)
 
(89
)
 
(63
)
 
(83
)
 
(71
)
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity
 
6,051

 
6,246

 
6,342

 
6,521

 
6,386

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
113

 
111

 
105

 
101

 
106

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
193

 
206

 
219

 
162

 
147

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
3,273

 
3,296

 
3,005

 
2,966

 
2,922

Plus taxes
 
(584
)
 
(590
)
 
(526
)
 
(515
)
 
(835
)
Adjusted book value
 
$
8,820

 
$
9,047

 
$
8,935

 
$
9,033

 
$
8,514

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted operating shareholders' equity (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(4), $(2), $(1), $(2), and $4)
 
$
12

 
$
7

 
$
3

 
$
5

 
$
(7
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted book value (net of tax (provision) benefit of $(2), $1, $4, $3, and $12)
 
$
2

 
$
(4
)
 
$
(15
)
 
$
(14
)
 
$
(24
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adjusted book value per share reconciliation:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Shareholders' equity attributable to AGL per share
 
$
69.35

 
$
71.18

 
$
63.23

 
$
58.95

 
$
50.82

Less pre-tax adjustments:
 


 


 
 
 
 
 
 
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives
 
(1.60
)
 
(0.60
)
 
(0.44
)
 
(1.26
)
 
(1.48
)
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS
 
1.12

 
0.56

 
0.72

 
0.52

 
0.48

Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect
 
3.06

 
5.21

 
2.39

 
4.20

 
2.47

Less taxes
 
(0.48
)
 
(0.95
)
 
(0.61
)
 
(0.71
)
 
(0.54
)
Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share
 
67.25

 
66.96

 
61.17

 
56.20

 
49.89

Pre-tax adjustments:
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Less: Deferred acquisition costs
 
1.26

 
1.19

 
1.01

 
0.87

 
0.83

Plus: Net present value of estimated net future revenue
 
2.14

 
2.20

 
2.11

 
1.40

 
1.15

Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed
 
36.37

 
35.34

 
28.98

 
25.56

 
22.83

Plus taxes
 
(6.48
)
 
(6.32
)
 
(5.07
)
 
(4.43
)
 
(6.52
)
Adjusted book value per share
 
$
98.02

 
$
96.99

 
$
86.18

 
$
77.86

 
$
66.52

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share
 
$
0.14

 
$
0.07

 
$
0.03

 
$
0.03

 
$
(0.06
)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Gain (loss) related to VIE consolidation included in adjusted book value per share
 
$
0.03

 
$
(0.05
)
 
$
(0.15
)
 
$
(0.12
)
 
$
(0.18
)

1)
See Non-GAAP Financial Measures set forth at the end of this Financial Supplement for a description of the changes to the discount rates used in the calculation of non-GAAP financial measure. The discount rate used for net present value of estimated net future revenues as of March 31, 2020 is 3%. The prior periods have been recast to present the net present value of net future revenues discounted at 3% instead of 6%.


46



Glossary

Net Par Outstanding and Internal Ratings
Net Par Outstanding is insured par exposure, net of reinsurance cessions. Unless otherwise indicated, GAAP net par outstanding amounts exclude amounts as a result of loss mitigation strategies, including securities the Company has purchased for loss mitigation purposes that are held in the investment portfolio.

Internal Rating utilizes the Company’s ratings scale, which is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency.

Statutory Net Par and Net Debt Service Outstanding. Under statutory accounting, net par and net debt service outstanding would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., an issuer has legally discharged its obligations with respect to a municipal security by satisfying conditions set forth in defeasance provisions contained in transaction documents and is no longer responsible for the payment of debt service with respect to such obligations) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., transaction documents for a municipal security do not contain defeasance provisions but the issuer establishes an escrow account with U.S. government securities in amounts sufficient to pay the refunded bonds when due; the refunded bonds are not considered paid and continue to be outstanding under the transaction documents and the issuer remains responsible to pay debt service when due to the extent monies on deposit in the escrow account are insufficient for such purpose).

Performance Indicators
The performance information described below is obtained from third parties and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to revision as updated or additional information is obtained:

60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned divided by current collateral balance.

Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Some asset classes may not have subordinated tranches so they are excluded from the weighted averages.

Sectors
Below are brief descriptions of selected types of public and structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019.

Public Finance:

General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds.

Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities.

Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies.

Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges.

Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community-based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.

Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue.


47



Glossary (continued)

Sectors (continued)

Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity.

Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration.

Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities.

Renewable Energy Bonds are obligations backed by renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind farm, hydroelectric, geothermal and fuel cell.

Regulated Utility Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company's international regulated utility business is conducted in the United Kingdom.

Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of credit default swap obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations.

Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign primarily includes obligations of local, municipal, regional or national governmental authorities or agencies outside of the United States.

Other Public Finance are obligations of or backed by local, municipal, regional or national governmental authorities or agencies not generally described in any of the other described categories.

Structured Finance:

Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities are obligations backed by closed-end and open-end first and second lien mortgage loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First lien mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (ARM) and option adjustable-rate (Option ARM) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including ‘‘prime’’, ‘‘subprime’’ and ‘‘Alt-A’’. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income.

Additional insured obligations within RMBS include Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs), which refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions.

Life Insurance Transactions are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets.

Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities (TruPS). These securities are often issued in ‘‘tranches,’’ with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues.

Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as student loans, automobile loans and leases, manufactured home loans and other consumer receivables.

Financial Products Business is the guaranteed investment contracts (GICs) portion of a line of business previously conducted by Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) that the Company did not acquire when it purchased AGMH in 2009 from Dexia SA and that is being run off. That line of business consisted of AGMH's GICs business, its medium term notes business and the equity payment agreements associated with AGMH's leveraged lease business. Assured Guaranty is indemnified by Dexia SA and certain of its affiliates against loss from the former Financial Products Business.

Other Structured Finance Obligations are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories.

48



Glossary (continued)

Definitions for Asset Management Segment

The Company uses AUM as a metric to measure progress in its Asset Management segment. The Company uses measures of its AUM in its decision making process and intends to use a measure of change in AUM in its calculation of certain components of management compensation. Investors also use AUM to evaluate companies that participate in the asset management business. AUM refers to the assets managed, advised or serviced by the Asset Management segment and equals the sum of the following:

the net asset value of the opportunity and wind-down funds plus any unfunded commitments; and

the amount of aggregate collateral balance and principal cash of BlueMountain's CLOs, including CLO equity that may be held by Assured Investment Management funds. This also includes CLO assets managed by BlueMountain Fuji Management, LLC (BM Fuji). BlueMountain is not the investment manager of BM Fuji CLOs, but rather has entered into a services agreement and a secondment agreement with BM Fuji pursuant to which BlueMountain provides certain services associated with the management of BM Fuji-advised CLOs and acts in the capacity of service provider.

The Company's calculation of AUM may differ from the calculation employed by other investment managers and, as a result, this measure may not be directly comparable to similar measures presented by other investment managers. The calculation also differs from the manner in which BlueMountain affiliates registered with the SEC report “Regulatory Assets Under Management” on Form ADV and Form PF in various ways.

The Company also uses several other measurements of AUM to understand and measure its AUM in more detail and for various purposes, including its relative position in the market and its income and income potential:

"Third-party assets under management" or "3rd Party AUM" refers to the assets BlueMountain manages or advises on behalf of third-party investors. This includes current and former employee investments in Assured Investment Management funds. For CLOs, this also includes CLO equity that may be held by Assured Investment Management funds.

"Intercompany assets under management" or "Intercompany AUM" refers to the assets BlueMountain manages or advises on behalf of the Company. This includes investments from affiliates of Assured Guaranty along with general partners' investments of BlueMountain (or its affiliates) into the funds.

"Funded assets under management" or "Funded AUM" refers to assets that have been deployed or invested into the funds or CLOs.

"Unfunded assets under management" or "Unfunded AUM" refers to unfunded capital commitments from closed-end funds and CLO warehouse fund.

"Fee earning assets under management" or "Fee Earning AUM" refers to assets where BlueMountain collects fees and has elected not to waive or rebate fees to investors.

"Non-fee earning assets under management" or "Non-Fee Earning AUM" refers to assets where BlueMountain does not collect fees or has elected to waive or rebate fees to investors. BlueMountain reserves the right to waive some or all fees for certain investors, including investors affiliated with BlueMountain and/or the Company. Further, to the extent that the Company's wind-down and/or opportunity funds are invested in BlueMountain managed CLOs, BlueMountain may rebate any management fees and/or performance compensation earned from the CLOs to the extent such fees are attributable to the wind-down and opportunity funds’ holdings of CLOs also managed by BlueMountain.




49



Non-GAAP Financial Measures
 
To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in evaluating the Company’s operations and progress towards long-term goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP and financial measures not determined in accordance with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from those of the Company.

By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors, analysts and financial news reporters access to information that management and the Board of Directors review internally. The Company believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures provides information that is necessary for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results.

The Company also provides the effect of VIE consolidation that is embedded in each non-GAAP financial measure, as applicable, which the Company believes may also be useful to investors, analysts and financial news media to evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain FG VIEs and investment vehicles. The Company does not own the consolidated FG VIEs and its exposure is limited to its obligation under the financial guaranty insurance contract. The Insurance segment presents the economic effect of the financial guaranty contracts associated with the consolidated FG VIEs. The Company does own a substantial ownership interest in its consolidated investment vehicles, which is reflected in the Insurance segment.

Management and the Board of Directors use non-GAAP financial measures further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to evaluate the Company’s results of operations, financial condition and progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses core financial measures in its decision making process and in its calculation of certain components of management compensation.

Management believes that many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL’s common shares. Management also believes that many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy.

Management believes that many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use adjusted book value, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Adjusted operating income further adjusted for the effect of VIE consolidation enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results in comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases.

The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine compensation are: (1) adjusted operating income, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, (2) adjusted operating shareholders' equity, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, (3) growth in adjusted book value per share, further adjusted to remove the effect of VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.

In the first quarter of 2020, the Company changed the discount rate used in the calculation of PVP and net present value of estimated future net revenues, which is a component of adjusted book value. Beginning in 2020, the discount rate will be the approximate average pre-tax fixed book yield of fixed-maturity securities purchased in the prior calendar year, excluding loss mitigation bonds. In prior periods the discount rate was a constant 6% discount rate. The Company made these changes and recast prior periods to better reflect the then current interest rate environment. The reconciliation tables of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures for PVP and ABV indicate the new discount rate for each relevant period. The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. To the extent there is a directly comparable GAAP financial measure, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure is presented within this financial supplement.

Adjusted Operating Income: Management believes that adjusted operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company. Adjusted operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile.

2) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 

50



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

3) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS that are recognized in net income. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves that are recognized in net income. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange remeasurement gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.
 
5) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Adjusted Operating Shareholders’ Equity and Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it excludes the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss.

Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

2) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s CCS. Such amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.
 
3) Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Management uses adjusted book value, further adjusted for VIE consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding franchise value. Growth in adjusted book value per share, further adjusted for VIE consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors. Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses. Adjusted book value is adjusted operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2) Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue. See below.
 
3) Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the present value of the expected future net earned premiums, net of the present value of expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments, which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.


51



Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued)

Adjusted Operating Return on Equity (Adjusted Operating ROE): Adjusted Operating ROE represents adjusted operating income for a specified period divided by the average of adjusted operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that adjusted operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use adjusted operating ROE, adjusted for VIE consolidation, to evaluate AGL’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date adjusted operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis. Adjusted operating ROE, adjusted for VIE consolidation, is one of the key management financial measures used in determining the amount of certain long-term compensation to management and employees and used by rating agencies and investors.

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of the present value of estimated net future revenue for contracts other than financial guaranty insurance contracts (such as specialty insurance and reinsurance contracts and credit derivatives). This amount represents the net present value of estimated future revenue from these contracts (other than credit derivatives with net expected losses), net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes.

Future installment premiums are discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than loss mitigation securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Net present value of estimated future revenue for an obligation may change from period to period due to a change in the discount rate or due to a change in estimated net future revenue for the obligation, which may change due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as additional installment premium on existing contracts (which may result from supplements or fees or from the issuer not calling an insured obligation the Company projected would be called), whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which management believes GAAP gross written premiums and changes in fair value of credit derivatives do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums. 

Future installment premiums are discounted at the approximate average pre-tax book yield of fixed maturity securities purchased during the prior calendar year, other than loss mitigation securities. The discount rate is recalculated annually and updated as necessary. Under GAAP, financial guaranty installment premiums are discounted at a risk-free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction.

Actual installment premiums may differ from those estimated in the Company's PVP calculation due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. 


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Assured Guaranty Ltd.                        
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(441) 279-5705
www.assuredguaranty.com


 



Contacts:

Equity and Fixed Income Investors:
Robert Tucker
Senior Managing Director, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications
(212) 339-0861
[email protected]

Michael Walker
Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations
(212) 261-5575
[email protected]

Andre Thomas
Managing Director, Equity Investor Relations
(212) 339-3551
[email protected]

Media:
Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
(212) 408-6042
[email protected]