Earnings Call Transcript - BG Q1 2024

Operator, Operator

Good day, and welcome to Bunge's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Release and Conference Call. Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to Ruth Ann Wisener. Please proceed.

Ruth Wisener, Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and thank you for joining us this morning for our first quarter earnings call. Before we get started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion. These can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bunge.com under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website as well. I'd like to direct you to Slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance and industry conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation, and we encourage you to review these factors. On the call this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer; and John Neppl, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Thank you, Ruth Ann, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by thanking the team for delivering another quarter of strong results, which reflect continued focus and great execution. We're off to a good start in 2024 amid a more balanced market environment than we've experienced over the past few years. Our team's capabilities and our global platform have again demonstrated our ability to navigate shifts in supply and demand with agility and speed. Our focus remains on delivering great value to all stakeholders while investing to strengthen our business so that we can provide customers with solutions not only today but over the longer term. We are making excellent progress on integration planning for our announced combination with Viterra. We're very pleased with how well the teams are working together, and our confidence in our ability to hit the ground running on day one has only strengthened as we've moved through the planning process. We still expect the transaction to close midyear, and we continue to engage with the relevant regulatory authorities as we work toward gaining the remaining approvals. We progressed on other growth projects that will improve our ability to supply the renewable fuels market. We announced a strategic partnership with Repsol, a global multi-energy company in Spain, and we broke ground on our previously announced oilseed processing switch plant in Destrehan, Louisiana, with our joint venture partner, Chevron. We also successfully commissioned our state-of-the-art edible oil refinery in India, enabling us to more efficiently serve our food customers in a growing region. Turning to our results. We delivered another solid quarter, driven by strong performance across our core businesses. We also saw good results in our non-core sugar joint venture. In addition, since we reported the fourth quarter, we repurchased $400 million of Bunge shares, making meaningful progress against the repurchase plan we outlined following the announcement of the Viterra transaction. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, our visibility into the back half of the year remains limited, and many of the dynamics we discussed last quarter remain in place. We're continuing to manage the evolving supply-demand environment in markets around the world, demonstrating the benefit of the work we've done to strengthen our business. Based on what we see in the markets and the forward curves today, we are maintaining our guidance for full-year adjusted EPS of approximately $9. I'll now hand the call over to John to walk through our financial results and outlook in more detail, and then we'll close with some additional thoughts. John?

John Neppl, CFO

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to the earnings highlights on Slide 5. Our reported first quarter earnings per share was $1.68 compared to $4.15 in the first quarter 2023. Our reported results included an unfavorable mark-to-market timing difference of $0.94 per share and a negative impact of $0.42 per share related to transaction and integration costs associated with our announced business combination with Viterra. Adjusted EPS was $3.04 in the quarter versus $3.26 in the prior year. Adjusted core segment earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, was $719 million in the quarter versus $756 million last year. In Agribusiness, processing results of $411 million in the quarter were up slightly from last year, as higher results in Europe and Asia crush value chains were partially offset by lower results in North and South America. In merchandising, lower results were primarily driven by our global grains and oils value chains where higher volumes were more than offset by lower margins. Refined and Specialty Oils had a solid quarter, but down from a strong prior year. Higher results in Europe were more than offset by lower results in North America and Asia. Results in South America were in line with last year. In Milling, higher results were driven by South America, reflecting improved margins in milling operations and a more favorable origination market environment. Corporate and other improved from last year. The decrease in corporate expenses primarily reflected the timing of performance-based compensation. Higher other results are related to Bunge ventures in our captive insurance program. In our non-core Sugar & Bioenergy joint venture, higher sugar volumes and prices more than offset lower ethanol prices. For the quarter, reported income tax expense was $117 million compared to $183 million in the prior year. The decrease was primarily due to lower pretax income. The higher effective tax rate of approximately 32% in the quarter reflected a discrete tax adjustment related to the Argentine peso devaluation. As a result, we have increased slightly the midpoint of the range of our estimated annual effective tax rate. Net interest expense of $66 million in the quarter was down slightly compared to last year due primarily to average debt levels. Let's turn to Slide 6, where you can see our adjusted EPS and EBIT trends over the past 4 years, along with the trailing 12 months. The strong performance reflects our team's continued excellent execution while also delivering on a variety of initiatives to position the company for long-term growth. Slide 7 details our capital allocation. In the first quarter, we generated $514 million of adjusted funds from operations. After allocating $101 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance, environmental health, and safety, we had $413 million of discretionary cash flow available. Of this amount, we paid $95 million in dividends, invested $135 million in growth and productivity-related CapEx, and repurchased $400 million of Bunge shares, achieving our commitment to repurchase $1 billion of shares prior to the closing of our announced combination with Viterra. This resulted in the use of $217 million of previously retained cash flow. Moving to Slide 8. At quarter end, Readily Marketable Inventory, or RMI, exceeded our net debt by approximately $4 billion. Our adjusted leverage ratio, which reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.1x at the end of the first quarter. Slide 9 highlights our liquidity position. At quarter end, we had committed credit facilities of approximately $8.7 billion, which includes $3 billion that will become available to draw upon at the close of the Viterra transaction. Of the $5.7 billion available to us currently, all was unused at quarter end, providing us ample liquidity to manage our ongoing capital needs. These amounts are in addition to $8 billion of term loan commitments that we have secured to fund the Viterra transaction. Further, as part of our capital structure planning, we recently doubled the size of our CP program from $1 billion to $2 billion. Please turn to Slide 10. For the trailing 12 months, adjusted ROIC was 17.7%, well above our RMI adjusted weighted average cost of capital of 7.7%. ROIC was 13.9%, also well above our weighted average cost of capital of 7%. Moving to Slide 11. For the trailing 12 months, we produced discretionary cash flow of approximately $1.9 billion and a cash flow yield of 16.9%. Please turn to Slide 12 and our 2024 outlook. As Greg mentioned in his remarks, taking into account first quarter results and the current margin environment of forward curves, we continue to expect full year 2024 adjusted EPS of approximately $9. Note that this forecast excludes any pending transactions that are expected to close during the year. In Agribusiness, full-year results are forecasted to be similar to our previous outlook and down from last year, primarily due to lower results in processing where margins remain compressed in most regions. In Refined and Specialty Oils, full-year results are expected to be similar to our previous outlook and down from the record prior year, reflecting a shift in the supply environment, particularly in the U.S. In Milling, full-year results are expected to be similar to our previous outlook and up from last year. And corporate and other, full-year results are expected to be similar to our previous outlook and up from last year. In non-core, full-year results in our Sugar & Bioenergy joint venture are expected to be in line with our previous outlook and significantly down from last year, reflecting lower Brazil ethanol prices. Additionally, the company expects the following for 2024: an adjusted annual effective tax rate of 22% to 25%, net interest expense in the range of $280 million to $310 million, which is down from our previous expectation of $300 million to $330 million; capital expenditures in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion; and depreciation and amortization of approximately $450 million. With that, I'll turn things back over to Greg for some closing comments.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Thanks, John. Before turning to Q&A, I want to offer a few closing thoughts. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our team's ability to capture opportunities as we work to find solutions that allow us to better serve the needs of customers at both ends of the value chain, farmers and consumers. We're proud of the work we've done to strategically position our business with the increased efficiency of our global platform. Our combination with Viterra will help us further accelerate our diversification across customers, assets, geographies, and crops, providing us with more optionality to help address the world's food security needs. This combination will also enhance our role as a bridge between growers and end consumers to adapt and prioritize new sustainability practices that produce low carbon intensity products while bringing value back to the farm. For example, we recently announced a $20 million investment in Brazil to more than double our regenerative ag program to 600,000 hectares. The investment would be used to pay premiums to farmers and will also finance the provision of free technical assistance, precision agricultural tools, and measurement technologies that help producers adopt techniques to reduce emissions. In the Southern U.S., we also successfully established a commercial pilot of winter canola hybrids in partnership with Chevron and Corteva Agriscience. These crops have environmental and soil health benefits similar to cover crops and can be an additional source of revenue for growers, also helping meet the sustainability requirements of our end customers. We're committed to significantly growing the program for the 2025 harvest season. I continue to be impressed by the innovation, collaboration, and commitment of the Bunge team as we work together to deliver on our critical mission to provide essential food, feed, and fuel to the world. And with that, we'll turn to Q&A.

Operator, Operator

The first question today comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson, Analyst

So Greg, John, I guess, first question, just thinking about the first quarter results in the context of the full year and an unchanged outlook. Would you characterize the forward environment for the balance of the year as actually weaker than what you had been looking at 3 months ago? Or would you just view this as an appropriate level of conservatism given limited forward book and kind of where the curve sits today? And kind of with that, can you just maybe give us your view on oilseed processing margins just around the world as you see them today?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. No, we really don't see it differently. What we talked about last time, of course, when we discussed the approximately $9 for the year was really kind of seeing it 50-50 between the first half and second half, which we continue to see. What we did see was a little stronger Q1 and some of that will come out of Q2. So Q2 will be a little bit softer, but we still see the halves as about 50-50 and still see the year the same at approximately $9. And then as far as current crush, as you kind of walk around the world, if you look at soy, the setup right now, farmers are, of course, responding to lower prices as we get more in balance on supply and demand. They responded to those lower prices by being pretty stubborn about selling. So you've got higher farmer retention. And that's kind of what happens as you transition from multiple years at higher prices. So the market has gone to very spot, not only for the farmers on selling, but the buyers, right? The buyers of the finished products have now been incentivized to wait to buy in the spot as prices have moved lower. And the other transition that, of course, we're seeing is you've got a supply chain that really has the stresses off it. So as people pull down inventories, they're not really holding those safety inventories anymore. Brazil and Europe have recently improved as we came through the Brazil harvest and saw a lot of origination, and with the little pushes of origination, we have seen improvements around FX changes and the pace of the harvest at the end there in Brazil. So that did help Brazil and Europe. Argentina, we expect those margins to pick up later in the year. They've been a little better here as we got started on harvest, but that will really depend on how producers react to the government, what happens as far as the valuation in Argentina, and then any other government programs, and as we see the farmer marketing develop there, that will be the key on the margins. The U.S. has been okay in the nearby. The curves definitely are weaker into Q2 and Q3 and then kind of as usual, we expect new crop Q4 the curves to improve. And then China, crush margins continue to be volatile, similar to the story you heard last year. Spot has held up okay but very, very low price discovery moving forward. So the team has been doing a nice job of managing through that. While soy seeds are down versus last year, they are still good in Europe and North America, and that's really led by the strong oil leg and pretty good supply of seeds. So that's kind of how we see things sitting up right now.

Adam Samuelson, Analyst

If I can just pick up on that last point on the oil leg. And I'd just love to get your view on renewable diesel demand for vegetable oils and feedstock versus other waste fats and oils. It does seem like supply of waste fats in particular, out of Asia have been accelerating pretty meaningfully. How are you looking at renewable diesel feedstock demand over the balance of the year? And how does that start to transition into '25 with the implementation of the 45C credit in the U.S.?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. And I might start at a slightly higher level on the oil. If you look at palm, some of the benefit on the strength in the soft oil is coming from the fact that palm supply has really been flat. So that growth in palm supply has stopped while domestic demand has continued to grow, leading to a decrease in exportable volumes of palm globally. From a high level, this is some of the support for oil. And then to get more specific to your question around the supply and demand in North America, yes, it has not been quite as tight in North America as we've seen with low carbon intensity feedstocks, primarily used cooking oil, being imported into the U.S. One of the things that we did talk about in the past is that we believe there was enough supply for the food market as well as the fuel market and that the market would do its work by adding capacity and importing palm to go into food as we saw switching as well as seeing other low carbon intensity feedstocks and used cooking oil being imported. So I think we've seen that and you've seen while we're continuing to process record amounts of vegetable oils into the fuel market, we've seen it a little softer as the renewable diesel margins are not as good and there's a big influx of the used cooking oil. So we have 1.4 billion gallons coming online here in '24. We're still on track to have 5 billion gallons in '25. We've got one new plant up and running, we're expecting another plant to come online in Q2 and then another plant in Q4. So there is demand coming here later in the year.

John Neppl, CFO

Adam, this is John. Regarding the 45C, we’re still in the process of figuring things out. We are optimistic that vegetable oil will have a significant role moving forward, but there are still some aspects under review. Like everyone else, we are monitoring this closely. A logical question that follows is whether the renewable volume obligation levels will be adjusted in the future since the industry has clearly found a sufficient supply of renewable diesel, biodiesel, and ultimately used cooking oil.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Ben Bienvenu with Stephens.

Ben Bienvenu, Analyst

I want to follow up on Adam's question regarding the guidance and focus on kind of the level of visibility that you expect to have through the year. Recognizing we're in a more balanced market environment, is the byproduct of that, that visibility is inherently reduced through all points of the year? Or are there key milestones and triggers as we move through the year that might enhance your visibility into the back half of the year? If so, maybe give us some insight into what those things are and when you expect to have that visibility?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. You're correct. There's definitely less visibility into this year than we've had for a couple of years. So not much at all kind of beyond 3 months. I think that will change as we see farmer behavior start to settle down and send the signals, whether that's the progress of the North American crop that then changes the marketing behaviors of the farmer here in North America as they think about that next crop coming off and rolling their stocks from a marketing perspective. As we see the safrinha crop come off in Brazil, and again, farmers making decisions about what they're storing and what they're moving, the logistical challenges in coordination in Brazil. And then in Argentina, it will be the producer who has been marketing the corn and holding the soybeans, which is pretty historical in Argentina. You've got a new regime in place there in the government, so the way you see what government programs and if there's valuation will be interesting. It will be an interesting year. It definitely is a year of transition in the markets as they get more in balance on supply and demand. And the other end consumer, right? As we continue to see the consumer, based on what we hear from our customers, trading down to private label and store brands from the brands. Finally, we're seeing a little less traffic in food service, where they've been more of a switch to quick-service restaurants and seeing that slow down a little bit, finally seeing a shift back to eating at home. So everyone's kind of finding their way here on the supply and demand side. But it feels like we're starting to get it sorted out and we'll see how these crops finish getting harvested in the southern hemisphere and how we get the crop planted and how it progresses in the Northern Hemisphere.

Ben Bienvenu, Analyst

Very good. Makes sense. John, you made a lot of progress on the share repurchase program, $400 million of stock repurchased during 1Q, $1 billion in the last 3 quarters. I believe your goal was to repurchase half of the $2 billion of stock expected to be repurchased by the middle of 2024. Given that you're ahead of schedule, does that mean we pull forward the timing of the $2 billion repurchase, or do we pause here in the short term? What's your expectation to the best you can communicate around the cadence of the remaining buyback activity?

John Neppl, CFO

Yes. It's going to really depend a little bit on how things progress on the Viterra transaction and timing around that. But I think it's possible we could pull some of that forward. I think it's hard to commit to that today because with the closing of the deal, as you know, we've got target leverage ratios we'd like to ensure we hit at the close of that transaction. We've also got other projects in play today, not only CapEx, but as you know, we have a pipeline of M&A stuff going on. So we'll watch it closely. It's an important part of the allocation, and we'll keep looking for opportunities here as we move forward, whether it's before or after the closing of this transaction.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America.

Salvator Tiano, Analyst

So firstly, I wanted to ask about Canada, I guess, the announcement yesterday about their view that the transaction of Viterra would be anticompetitive. I think they said it would be negative for procurement on the west side of Western Canada and anticompetitive on the Eastern side on the production of canola oil and meal. So given their view, can you talk a little bit, firstly about what the milestones here are? What could be the impact on the transaction's timeline? And also, what are the potential outcomes to resolve these issues? Is there a chance that you may get away with divesting nothing? Or do you have to negotiate with them and provide some remedies?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. I might start kind of at a higher level; we are pleased with the progress we're making. If you look, we got to file in about 40 jurisdictions and 28 of those have issued unconditional clearances at this point. Of the remaining 13, we have some of the big ones, including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, China, and the EU. If you remember, Argentina is post-closing review. While we don't know exactly when we'll get the green light, we haven't seen anything that indicates any material risk to the economics of the deal. From a Canada-specific perspective, it's good that that step of the regulatory process is complete, and as you look through the Competition Bureau Report, the good news is they had no concerns with much of what we're doing on the grain purchasing side, the meal sales at ports, or the majority of our refined and specialty oil product sales. On where there were concerns and topics raised, we look forward to discussing those in greater detail, and we'll be happy to engage with all the regulators as they raise concerns. To put it simply, at the end of the day, this transaction is good for Canada; it will be more efficient and resilient throughout all of our supply chains. Markets aren't getting any easier. We'll continue to maintain Canadian leadership in agriculture and food, and we'll be able to increase our capacity to invest and continue to provide thousands of Canadians with good jobs. So we feel good about where we're at, and we don't really see any need for remedies in Canada. It would be too early to speculate on that, but we look forward to engaging on the details.

Salvator Tiano, Analyst

Okay. Perfect. And I also wanted to ask about the cover crops. You mentioned that the trial this winter went very well. I'm just wondering, at which point do you think you can start commercializing these products and start seeing some benefit to the bottom line? What's the thinking with regard to the economics? How could these types of products be monetized?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

You broke up right at the beginning. Was the question on winter canola?

Salvator Tiano, Analyst

Yes, exactly.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. Look, we were in the trial phase, running the pilots on winter canola, and we've been very pleased with the producer reaction, as well as the production and performance of the winter canola. The plan now will be to scale that up in the coming campaign. As we get visibility to the uptake by the producer and our ability to scale that up, then we'll eventually be able to talk about any impact on the financials, but it's a bit early for that. Winter canola and the cover crops, I might add, of course, we're building those programs to serve Destrehan and our expansion there in the Gulf. So that's a little off in the future as well. We'll have some time as we build that capacity.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Steven Haynes with Morgan Stanley.

Steven Haynes, Analyst

Earlier, we discussed the oil side of the equation. I was just wondering if we could come back to the meal side of it. There's some more crush capacity coming in the U.S. this year, as you commented before, Argentina potentially becoming a little bit more of a factor in the global market. How are you thinking about the domestic inclusion and export opportunity for meal in the second half?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

No. Thank you. So far here in '24, soybean meal demand appears pretty good. The lower prices are doing their work. Additionally, profitability for the animal segment looks to have bottomed out, and as profitability improves, we expect some expansion. Currently, global animal numbers are stable, with pork and poultry roughly flat, poultry up maybe a little and pork down a little. Globally, hog margins are up in all regions except China, and poultry margins are better. I feel like the meal demand is okay there. Last year, the rest of the world had to compensate for Argentina when it didn't run as the crops were harvested, and as the farmer starts to sell and liquidate the crop this year, we expect to see increased activity in Argentina compared to last year, which may come at the expense of some other areas potentially in Europe. There will be some trade-offs. But I think that's what we've shown in the last few years; the beauty of our global platform is that we can adjust and maximize where the margins are as we run our system to serve our customers.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Tom Palmer with Citi.

Thomas Palmer, Analyst

I wanted to just ask on the second quarter; you did note maybe a little bit of incremental softness. What's driving that, in particular? Are there certain segments we should be thinking about or certain regions where maybe it's come down a bit?

John Neppl, CFO

Yes, Tom, this is John. When we cadence the quarter, it's kind of 60%, 40% for the first half. We ended up a little bit more tilted toward Q1 versus Q2. But largely, the makeup of the quarter hasn't really changed so much in total. Even by segment, it's been more timing. Where we saw a little bit of over-delivery in Q1 across merchandising and processing, we are seeing a little bit of softness in Q2 in those two items. It's really more about timing; it's always hard to predict that. But based on our current forecast, we'll see a little decline in processing and merchandising in Q2 versus Q1. Everything else will hold fairly steady. There is still time here; we're only really at the end of April, so we've got a couple of months to see how things shake out.

Thomas Palmer, Analyst

Understood. And then maybe we could just kind of shift over to Q4 where you do expect a little bit of an uptick, consistent with what you anticipated a quarter ago. What's really driving that? Is there visibility at this point that really guides that? Is there any read-through of that as maybe the environment being improved in late this year that pulls into '25?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

A couple of things on Q4; historically, in North America, if you look at where our planted acres are, you assume that soybean crop gets grown and you have new crop coming off. Additionally, with the amount of stock that U.S. producers are carrying, the marketing is close to that new crop being harvested. In addition, the pressure on the oil market here in North America from the imports of used cooking oil are not as economical at this point. While at the same time, with another plant coming online on the renewable diesel side in Q2 and then another plant in Q4, that could be constructive for oil demand as we approach Q4. We also discussed earlier how palm is fairly tight, and that's supporting oils globally; the soft oils are relatively tight outside of North America, especially with the demand.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Heather Jones with Heather Jones Research.

Heather Jones, Analyst

I want to stick with oil demand. Greg, you mentioned about the Chinese used cooking oil. And yes, it seems like that market is closed. You have soybean oil that seems to be trading at an unusually low price relative to historical values compared to palm oil and canola, as well as animal fats. Just wondering if you think there is an opportunity for soy to price itself back into food rations, or will that take a longer period?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

No, I think one of the things that we have seen from our food customers is that as prices have come back, the programs we're working on with them are really driven around driving volume now, whether it's new products or product enhancements. So while we had an inflationary environment where all the projects were really focused around cost reduction, they're now looking at driving volume. The other thing is with the profitability on the animal side, we may see more of that come back into the feed rations as well. Therefore, we think we could see some positive effects; historically, we know that lower prices generally foster demand. I think you're on the right track; it's just a question of how quickly we will see it kick in, but we expect support from both the food and feed markets.

Heather Jones, Analyst

Okay. I have a two-part question. I was just wondering how you are thinking about the full year. Like you noted, there's little visibility beyond three months. However, when you reflect on the full year, how do you consider the magnitude of Argentine crush? I am curious because you mentioned that you think U.S. crush margins should be okay. With Argentina coming into the market with increased meal flows and several new plants slated for the next few months, do you believe those margins will be lifted by the oil side? How do you view this interplay?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. I think there will be a little bit of a balance. We've put all this in our current outlook. But some of what we discussed earlier with animal profitability is also expected to see a slight uptick on the meal demand side due to some expansion in the animal segment. On the oil side, we talked about the situation with palm being tight, some demand growth on both the feed and food sides from lower prices, and the renewable diesel market continuing to expand. The lower carbon intensity feedstocks are critical, and it’s uncertain how quickly they can maintain competitiveness. We don’t know if some of that is related to their stocks being pulled down or their competitive performance. The big picture is that everyone is attempting to reduce carbon from their liquid fuel supply chains globally. Projects are being developed, and as demand grows, supplies are shifting. We expect that dynamics will continue as we benefit from our global footprint on both meal and oil.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Ben Theurer with Barclays.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

Greg, John, just wanted to follow up on other capital allocation. I know we have the Viterra transaction pending, but I understand you have a bunch of other projects underway regarding growth investments, productivity increase, etc. Can you provide an update on the CapEx for this year, which still appears to be somewhat elevated? What are some of the projects you have planned, and when do you expect them to make a relevant contribution to current results? That’s my first question.

John Neppl, CFO

Sure. Yes. Ben, as you know, we have a number of projects going on globally. Greg mentioned the Krishna plant, which was commissioned recently. Additionally, we announced breaking ground on the Destrehan plant expansion a few weeks ago. We've also got the Morristown SPC plant in Morristown, Indiana, underway, our greenfield oil specialty oils plant in the Netherlands in Amsterdam is underway, and we have barge unloading expansion in the port in Destrehan, complementing the Destrehan facility’s expansion. Those are several of the larger capex projects. The Avondale plant acquisition is another significant project we are also working on. These projects are all underway with the exception of Krishna, while others will come online, likely in 2026. We remain optimistic about the progress; they are on track and looking good, but it will likely be late '26 before those capabilities are fully operational. Moreover, we also have CJ Selecta, which we announced previously, that we are hoping to close later this year. Whether that happens prior to or after the Viterra deal remains to be seen, but it’s progressing well.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

Okay. Perfect, very clear. And then my second question is within Agribusiness merchandising; how do you evaluate the cadence of merchandising? It appears to be a bit softer in the second half of last year and seems to have stabilized in 1Q, actually improving sequentially. So as we review, and with your guidance indicating Agribusiness as a declining segment, predominantly driven by processing, is it a fair assumption to expect that the annual cadence should remain in line with 1Q levels, which align with levels from last year? Is this an accurate way to view it?

John Neppl, CFO

Yes, that's always a tough one. But right now, I would say we're expecting to be fairly on track with where we were a year ago in merchandising. We had a sequentially good start compared to Q3 and Q4 of last year. Currently, we've pulled some of that forward from Q2, so we consider the first half relatively modest, but with a solid beginning. There is still time left, as we are just at the end of April, and there are a couple of months remaining to see how things develop.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO.

Andrew Strelzik, Analyst

I know we've discussed the soybean oil side, but I wanted to circle back to it one more time. I'm trying to think about outlets from a demand perspective given that the market seems to have investors slightly concerned about inclusion in renewable diesel as a feedstock moving forward. My question focuses on the export side. Do you see the opportunity for the U.S. to become a more meaningful soybean oil exporter later this year? You mentioned the tightness in vegetable oils globally outside the U.S. Do you view that as an opportunity as South America comes online? Are there any other global demand perspectives to consider regarding soybean oil supply-demand?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. The U.S. does have the ability to switch quickly. If you think about it, prior to renewable diesel, we held the residual stocks for the world and were ready to export as the world needed it. Furthermore, while we built capacity on the crush side and continued to import other oils and low carbon intensity feedstocks, we utilized our stocks and imported palm to balance things. I believe that the U.S. will continue to be the most dynamic on the oil side to assist with global balancing. So again, I’m glad we're operating from a global platform and can see those shifts to respond to customer needs while balancing our crush margins. It should be a dynamic year, and we continue to see strong demand in India, which I didn’t mention earlier but is pivotal for the oil side as well.

Andrew Strelzik, Analyst

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. I would also like to ask about the crush capacity expansions that have been announced over the years. When the announcements were made, many players were in a much stronger margin environment. Do you see a risk that some of these plants will not be built as the margin environment has compressed? This question is not directed to you; it's for those without the end market demand built in. I'm curious if you're hearing that, or if you think there is a risk some of that capacity may not ever come online?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Look, when I look at it through our lens, things have certainly become more expensive to build for a period, which is why we slowed down our Destrehan project. We chose to wait and obtain cost efficiencies before proceeding with that. Now we're building a switch plant at a port to help drive export economics on the meal side. We're establishing this at a brownfield site, allowing for lower costs, while integrating into our global network. We're thankful for our position; I wouldn’t want to be a standalone plant today as an investor. We're intentionally placing capital in locations that will provide advantages for decades.

John Neppl, CFO

Andrew, perhaps I would add here that we monitor this carefully. Projects underway will continue to progress, but any proposed or early-stage projects have seen several put on hold, at least temporarily. We expect that with the margin environment today, those projects will probably not advance unless conditions change.

Operator, Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Heckman for any closing remarks.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

I just like to thank everyone for joining us today and for your interest in Bunge. We look forward to speaking with you again soon. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.