Earnings Call Transcript - CEPU Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Central Puerto's Third Quarter of 2025 Earnings Conference Call. A slide presentation is accompanying today's webcast and will be also available on the Investors section of the company's website, centralpuerto.com/en/investors. Please note, this event is being recorded. If you do not have a copy of the press release, please refer to the Investor Relations support section on the company's corporate website at centralpuerto.com. In addition, a replay of today's call will be available in upcoming days by accessing the webcast link at the same section of Central Puerto's website. Our host today will be Mr. Fernando Bonnet, Central Puerto CEO; Mr. Enrique Terraneo, the company's CFO; Mrs. Maria Laura Feller, Head of Investor Relations; and Mr. Alejandro Diaz Lopez, Head of Corporate Finance. Maria Laura, please go ahead.

Maria Laura Feller, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you very much. Good morning, and welcome. We are turning you today with our management team from Buenos Aires to report on the results of the third quarter of year 2025 and then answer any questions you may have. During the third quarter, adjusted EBITDA reached $101.1 million, up 64% quarter-on-quarter and an 8% increase year-on-year. Revenues totaled $233.9 million, up 30% quarter-on-quarter, mainly reflecting higher contract sales from renewables and thermal. Fuel cost pass-through, up 26% year-on-year, mostly reflected additional revenues in this quarter from fuel cost pass-through and also Central Costanera successfully resuming activities after the maintenance works. Total generation was 4,539 gigawatt hours, 4% up from second quarter 2025, but 20% down year-on-year, mostly due to the lower hydrology at Piedra del Aguila. From a financial standpoint, our net leverage ratio remains very healthy at 0.5x, adjusted EBITDA underscoring our strong balance sheet and financial flexibility. Also good news for our credit rating. Moody's has initiated the grade assessment with a AA+ Fix SCR upgrading our rating to AA from AA-. Third quarter 2025 capital expenditures amounted to $76.1 million, which includes the acquisition of Cafayate solar farm at $48.5 million. Final works for the closing of the Brigadier Lopez combined cycle and San Carlos Solar farm are very near COD as well as maintenance CapEx. Moving to a key development for the quarter. In August, our company successfully participated in Battery Energy Storage System bidding process. We were awarded both projects we submitted, which collectively represent 205-megawatt hours of new capacity. The projects are scheduled to be fully operational by mid-2027. A significant fourth quarter outlook. The Energy Secretariat released Resolution 400/25 in October. This resolution marks a pivotal step in the liberalization of the power market and creates a strong business outlook for our company. Going now to Page 4 for the earnings summary. Our adjusted EBITDA came in strong at $101.1 million reflecting the effective fuel cost pass-through to revenues and solid operational performance in both our renewable portfolio and at Central Costanera. In this quarter, our revenue mix was 53% spot and 47% contracted with 63% of total revenues denominated in dollars. Renewable generation revenues increased by 24% this quarter, supported by a 21% rise in generation volumes quarter-on-quarter. This strong performance was driven by our wind farms and the contribution from the newly acquired Cafayate solar plant. On the thermal side, contracted revenues benefited from additional fuel cost pass-through at Terminal 6. Thermal revenues also rose in both the spot and contract markets, reflecting the positive impact of Central Costanera, which successfully completed maintenance works in the second quarter as well as fuel cost pass-through effects. Now turning to Page 5. Total generation for the quarter was 4,539 gigawatt hours, composed of thermal, hydro, and renewable sources. Volumes were up 4% quarter-on-quarter. Thermal generation represented the largest share followed by hydro and renewables. Thermal and renewal volumes grew, while hydro volumes decreased due to lower water availability. Availability rates for all our thermal units remained strong at 88%, with combined cycles rate at a very competitive level of 96%. We continue executing our growth strategy. The combined cycle at the solar farm is very near COD. In addition, we acquired an 80-megawatt solar farm and also secured 2 battery projects totaling 205 megawatts with 15-year contracts. Central Puerto complex will have 150 megawatts of lithium iron phosphate and the offtaker will be the institutional company Edenor. The Central Costanera complex will have 55 megawatts and the offtaker will be Edesur. Estimated capital expenditure is between $130 million and $140 million for both projects combined. On October 21, effective since November 1, the Energy Secretariat issued the new framework to reform Argentina's wholesale electricity market. The core objective of Resolution 400 is to liberalize such market through a progressive transition. The new spot revenues incorporate a margin on top of variable production costs supporting long-term value creation for generators. There is a significant shift for revenues in the spot, now denominated in dollars, mitigating currency and inflation risk. Thermal generators gained significant flexibility, allowing them to trade capacity and energy in the new Thermal Term Market. We can sell up to 20% of our production to large users and the remaining up to 100% to distribution companies or the spot market. Spot market energy remuneration will capture marginal rent on top of the variable cost of producing the energy. Our total financial debt at quarter end stood at $452 million. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $292 million, resulting in net debt of $159.9 million. Net leverage ratio stood very healthy at 0.5x adjusted EBITDA. In October, we issued a new corporate bond facing $89 million in capital and also repaid $90 million of maturing debt, including the repayment of our Class B corporate bond and the legacy debt associated with the solar farm. Total installed capacity in Argentina as of September 2025 was approximately 43,887 megawatts. Energy generation during the third quarter was 34,342 gigawatt hours, while domestic demand reached 35,255 gigawatt hours. Going now to Page 10 for key takeaways. 3Q '25 adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million and 3Q '25 last 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $317.5 million reflect solid operations and a starting point in this new market environment. Central Puerto was awarded both projects submitted under the Battery Energy Storage Systems tender. This means we added 205 megawatts of new capacity. These strategic projects notably boost our growth path and provide additional operational capabilities needed in the future of power generation. Our growth pipeline is delivering results with the acquisition of Cafayate Solar Farm, which added 80 megawatts of installed capacity to our portfolio since August 2025. Additional growth will be provided by ongoing projects. Brigadier Lopez combined cycle closing and the San Carlos Solar Farm very near COD. Central Puerto's business outlook has gained significant growth momentum, driven by the Energy Secretariat Resolution 400. This resolution formalizes the market liberalization roadmap, representing a pivotal step towards strengthening long-term value creation for us. This context reinforces our positive outlook for 2026 in our long-term company vision. Thank you for your time and your confidence in Central Puerto. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Operator: Please note, this event is being recorded. If you do not have a copy of the press release, please refer to the Investor Relations support section on the company's corporate website at centralpuerto.com. In addition, a replay of today's call will be available in upcoming days by accessing the webcast link at the same section of Central Puerto's website. Our host today will be Mr. Fernando Bonnet, Central Puerto CEO; Mr. Enrique Terraneo, the company's CFO; Mrs. Maria Laura Feller, Head of Investor Relations; and Mr. Alejandro Diaz Lopez, Head of Corporate Finance. Please go ahead.

Martin Arancet, Analyst

I have 2 topics that I would like to discuss. I will run them one by one, if that's okay. First, regarding the market liberalization. I was wondering if you could provide any guidance on how much do you expect this to improve your results over the next 2 years? Also, if you are considering any improvement to your loyalty fleet, given this increase in revenues? And how likely do you think it will be to contract that 20% with large users?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Thank you for your interest and your questions, Martin. In response to your first question about the sector's deregulation, we are seeing a cash increase based on the dispatch of consumer fuels, and we anticipate an EBITDA increase of about 20% to 25%. This is contingent on the dispatch of units and fuel consumption. Additionally, the new regulations bring significant improvements, particularly in how prices are denominated in dollars. This means we won't have to wait for government resolutions each month for price increases, as was previously necessary. Another benefit is that we can now sell a portion of our production under private agreements with off-takers. While there is a 20% limit for major users, there are no restrictions on sales to distribution companies. We are actively seeking large consumers who are not under contract, as well as focusing on smaller ones. Since the regulation took effect, we have started sales, but the market is still figuring out how prices will evolve under the new regulations and how the pricing will be set by CAMMESA and the Secretariat of Energy. We are optimistic that as these uncertainties diminish, demand will pick up, especially since spot prices during the winter months are expected to be significantly higher. We believe we can reach that 20% this year and anticipate further growth with distribution companies. These companies also have to coordinate with provincial and national regulators on how to manage contract pass-throughs. While things are still evolving, we are confident that the new market regulations will facilitate firm contracts this year.

Martin Arancet, Analyst

Just a couple of follow-up questions. First, you mentioned $20 million to $25 million of additional EBITDA per year. I was wondering if that's not considering the 20% that you could sell to big users? And if so...

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Sorry, Martin, it's not $20 million, it's a 20% increase.

Martin Arancet, Analyst

20% to 25% okay, right...

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

This translates to around $70 million to $80 million.

Martin Arancet, Analyst

Great. And that's without the 20%. So if you are successful in selling that 20% to industrials, we could see further improvement, right?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Yes.

Martin Arancet, Analyst

Okay. Great. And then a follow-up question regarding distribution companies. Probably it's too soon, but do you foresee new auctions for distribution companies next year or in the near future?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

You are talking about the capacity auction or batteries?

Martin Arancet, Analyst

An option to sell the other 80%, I mean, if I understood correctly...

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

No, no, but yes, this will be by each distribution company process. It's not centralized like batteries or capacity contracts. Each distribution company can move forward independently. CAMMESA will provide around 70% to 75% of the distribution company's demand, and the rest could be contracted directly by the distribution companies with generators. We are seeing some distribution companies asking for quotations and starting discussions to provide their demand. However, it's not centralized—it will be based on negotiations between generators and distribution companies.

Martin Arancet, Analyst

Yes. So we can expect beyond the 20%, some distribution companies probably in 2026, 2027 contracting additional energy?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Yes.

Martin Arancet, Analyst

Well, great. Then my second topic that I would like to discuss was regarding the recent hydro auction. I don't know if you could provide any color on that, probably the targeted assets and expected timeline for awarding these assets?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Yes. As you know, we participated with Central Puerto and Costanera. We expect to have more news in the coming weeks. CAMMESA and the Secretariat of Energy are currently evaluating capacity and the documentation that bidders provided. I anticipate that next week, we will have a clearer view of the competition and those who are available to compete. We aim to have the final results by mid-December.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Mr. with Citi.

Unknown Analyst, Analyst

My question is about capital allocation. We've noticed significant changes in the valuation of Argentinian assets recently. In this context, are you considering some portfolio adjustments with your assets in forestry or perhaps in mining, or would you prefer to wait for a longer cycle before making changes, especially since there might be some new projects that look appealing as investment opportunities? My second question is more conceptual: where do you anticipate the market price stabilizing for the term, currently around $60 per megawatt hour, given the increasing power supply? On one hand, there may be rising demand from distributors for those Power Purchase Agreements. How do you see that stabilizing in the short term?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Okay. Thank you. Regarding capital allocation, we are not evaluating right now a reallocation of our assets or selling. We believe they have a lot of room to increase in value. Therefore, we are waiting for a longer period of growth and also evaluating possibilities to enhance their value with some developments around those assets. As for prices, in the short term, we expect some reduction around $60, perhaps moving between $57 and $55 in the short term as new offerings enter the market. However, in the long run, we do not foresee drastic reductions as capacity in Argentina must increase, and the prices for new capacity are also rising due to increased demand from various sectors. So while we may see some initial price stabilization, we anticipate prices to settle around $60 over the long term.

Unknown Analyst, Analyst

If I may add a quick one. Now that thermal projects should have, I mean, with the new rules, should have better rates of return, very likely. What would you say are the key projects in the thermal side of the business that Central Puerto is looking into?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

This new regulation is not yet sufficient to bring new projects from scratch. It's not easy to establish a large combined cycle project, for instance, 800 megawatts, and sell it to the market under current conditions. We are not there yet. The projects expected to come into play over the next year will likely be smaller capacity open cycles and machines functioning as flexible capacity providers, rather than massive combined cycles. We expect some centralized auctions set by the government soon, but not for large combined-cycle projects.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from. In the release, we saw that the installed capacity of San Carlos, Cafayate, and Brigadier Lopez is already available. Could you provide some color on how much of the capacity will actually be operating or contributing to generation during 4Q? And what we could expect in terms of revenues or margin uplift, both from the additional capacity and from the recent steps toward electricity market deregulation?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Thank you for your question. In terms of new capacity entrants, San Carlos and Brigadier Lopez, as you mentioned, are currently coming online. San Carlos is expected to start generating this week or the beginning of next month. The impact on our revenues for the fourth quarter will be like half of November and full December. Brigadier Lopez is currently in the commissioning phase; we expect it to be online by mid-December. The revenue impact from Brigadier Lopez is expected to be significant, while we estimate around an additional EBITDA of $60 million to $65 million for Brigadier Lopez and around $3 million to $5 million for San Carlos, based on a full-year figure.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Ludovic Casrouge with Autonomy Capital.

Ludovic Casrouge, Analyst

My question was about the CapEx. Which level of CapEx do you expect for next year?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Thank you for your question. In terms of CapEx, we are finishing Brigadier Lopez and San Carlos. We are not expecting big CapEx for that part. The CapEx we are undertaking right now and will continue in the next year includes the projects we secured last quarter. This will be around $130 million to $140 million for both the Central Puerto and Costanera projects. We expect the completion of those projects in 2026.

Ludovic Casrouge, Analyst

Okay. And just thinking could we expect an extra dividend distribution for the end of this year?

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Well, that depends on the results of the hydro auction. That will determine that.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Fernando Bonnet for any closing remarks.

Fernando Bonnet, CEO

Hello, everyone, for your interest in Central Puerto. We encourage you to call us for any information that you may need. Have a great day. Bye-bye.