
Unchanged EBITDA guidance
of DKK 900m for 2023
General assumptions
Due to the heightened geopolitical and macroeconom-
ic uncertainty (ref. page 28 of the annual report 2022),
our market outlook is characterised by greater
unpredictability, particularly for H2.
As expected, cost and wage inflation increased during
Q1 and we expect this to continue for the remainder of
2023. We have implemented, and will continue to
implement, mitigating measures including cost
containment, process improvements and the necessary
staff reductions to bring the expected impact from cost
and wage inflation well below general price increases.
We expect the global supply chain to continue to
normalise in 2023. Climate & Energy is a strategic
focus area for Solar and a growing market. However,
we still see challenges in the supply side of climate and
energy products.
Over the past few years, we have seen substantial
price increases from our suppliers. In Q1 we saw a
slowdown in price increases as expected. However,
Solar has a proven track record of strong price
management.
Our 2023 guidance does not include any significant
restructuring costs.
Market outlook for Solar segments
Overall, we expect markets to be stagnant or negative
in all countries throughout 2023. This will become
more evident in H2 as the roll-over effect from price
increases in 2022 wears off.
In general, we expect all segments to show weaker
growth in H2 than in H1 2023.
Installation
In 2023, we expect negative growth for the new
construction sector. The green transition will, however,
continue to deliver strong growth rates. We expect the
installation market to be stagnant or negative.
Industry
The guidance assumes that sales to Marine/Offshore
and MRO will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace,
whereas we expect all other subsegments to be
stagnant or negative.
Overall, we expect the industry market to be stagnant.
Trade
In 2023, we expect minor growth for special sales,
which is the Trade segment's primary activity.
Financial outlook 2023
Revenue guidance
Due to currency headwinds, we decrease our revenue
guidance to DKK 13,500m compared to our previous
guidance of DKK 13,700m, corresponding to an
unchanged adjusted organic growth of approx. 0%.
In the wake of substantial price increases in 2022, the
majority of growth for 2023 is projected to take place
in H1 whereas we expect negative growth in H2.
Adjusted for price increases, mainly roll-over effects
from 2022, we expect negative growth in all main
segments which will only partly be offset by the
expected strong growth within Climate & Energy.
EBITDA guidance
Despite currency headwinds, we expect unchanged
EBITDA of approx. DKK 900m which corresponds to
an EBITDA margin of approx. 6.7%.
In 2022, we saw substantial positive one-off price
effects. We expect this to normalise in 2023, which
means that no major one-off price effects are included
in our guidance.
* Including one-off income of DKK 112m
Guidance 2023
Due to currency headwinds,
we decrease our revenue
guidance to DKK 13,500m
from DKK 13,700m. EBITDA
guidance remains unchanged
at DKK 900m.
EBITDA
DKKm
2020
2021*
2022
One-offs
2022
538
637
911
-215
* including one-off income of DKK 112m
Inflation
catch-up
Guidance
2023
-60
900
10Solar A/S
Q1 2023