Section 1: Overview and per
formance
of the portfolio) which is focused on
a managed decline of their thermal
coal asset base over time. T
eck
Resources (3.6% of the portfolio) is
the Company’s primary exposure to
metallurgical coal, which has been
able to take advantage of the higher
Chinese coking coal prices during the
year given their Canadian asset base.
Precious metals
Unlike the recover
y fuelled
per
formance of the industrial metals,
the precious metals have remained
largely rangebound in 2021, with the
last year
. The gold price continues
to be driven by two opposing forces:
concerns over rising inflation and
excessive government debt, and on
the other hand the impact of rate hikes
with the US Federal Reserve indicating
in December that it will begin raising
rates in March 2022 in an effort to
stem rising inflation. This is likely to
see a strengthening US$ headwind to
gold, but the key determinant of the
gold price this year will be whether rate
hikes prove sufficient to cool inflation.
If this is not the case and inflation is
more “persistent” and less “transitory
”
,
we would expect real rates to decline
further creating a constructive
backdrop for gold. T
ypically, gold
underper
forms equities and the US
Dollar heading into a rate hike cycle,
but outper
forms thereafter giving
us confidence in the medium-term
outlook for gold. While the silver price
underper
formed gold on a year-to-
average price year-on-year was higher
have seen a solid recover
y in silver’s
industrial demand over the last year
,
with longer-term upside potential
from greater solar penetration and
increasing usage of semi-conductors.
An encouraging feature of the gold
equity market over recent years
has been the increased focus on
shareholder returns, with higher
gold prices translating into higher
margins, free cash flow and dividends.
This trend has generally continued
through 2021, albeit margins have
been compressed through rising
cost inflation. The portfolio finished
the year with 16.4% exposure to
gold equities, roughly half the peak
exposure to gold equities in the first
half of 2020. The underper
formance
of the gold equities has been notable
maintained our strategy of focusing
on high-quality producers which we
see as best positioned to weather cost
inflation and maintain production
levels. Amongst our gold companies,
Newmont Corporation
’s (3.5% of the
portfolio) per
formance continues to
stand out in the sector
, a reflection of
its solid operational per
formance and
cash return.
It has been a volatile year for the
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) with
record pricing for the PGM basket
during the first half
, to then face a
downturn in demand as the global chip
shortage hit auto production towards
of PGM end-use linked to the auto
industr
y
, prices came under significant
pressure with the platinum price
to see improved demand for PGMs
during the first half of 2022 as chip
shortages ease and auto producers
begin re-stocking raw materials. Whilst
a lack of supply growth and increased
PGM loadings on auto catalysts to
meet rising emissions standards bodes
well for the PGMs, the industr
y faces
the structural headwind of the shift
in demand from internal combustion
engine vehicles to electric vehicles.
The Company’s exposure to PGMs
is via Impala Platinum (1.1% of the
portfolio), Nor
tham Platinum (1.2%
of the portfolio), Sibanye Stillwater
5% of the portfolio)
Anglo Platinum. During the second
half of the year
, we saw a step-up in
mergers & acquisitions (M&
A) activit
y
amongst the group with Sibanye
Stillwater looking to further move into
the batter
y materials space with the
acquisition of a historically challenged
whilst Northam Platinum and Impala
Platinum entered into a bidding war for
Royal Bafokeng Platinum. These are
worr
ying trends as investors had hoped
that strengthened balance sheets and
improved free cash flow across the
sector would allow the producers to
deliver on their commitment to return
cash to shareholders.
Sustainable metals
The shift towards electric vehicles (E
Vs)
continues to be one of the strongest
trends in global markets. The market
is anticipated to grow more than
ten-fold by 2030 from 2020 levels,
which creates opportunities for those
companies supplying the materials that
enable the transition. The Company is
well placed to benefit from this given its
exposure to the raw materials that go
into EV batteries and the e-motor
.
T
ransportation was significantly
with global passenger car sales falling
car sales have been constrained
by supply chain semiconductor
shortages, although there is evidence
of significant demand with price
increases and shortages seen in the
second-hand market.
The level of demand and price action
in lithium surprised even the most
optimistic of forecasters in 2021, with
the Chinese Lithium Carbonate price
ending the year at US
up by 429% year-on-year
. 2021 saw
153% growth in China for Batter
y
Europe. We ended 2021 with the EV
share of new car sales standing at
19.3% in China and 31.1% in Europe.
The US market remains a significant
growth oppor
tunity, with sales lagging
other markets like Europe and China
and penetration rates at 6.2%. The
Company has exposure to lithium
via its holding in Sociedad Química
y Minera de Chile ADR (SQM) (1.0%
of the portfolio) which is expected to
achieve higher pricing in 2022 due
to the lagged nature of its contract
pricing structure, along with Sigma
Lithium (0.4% of the portfolio), which
is developing a spodumene project