
Annual Report and Accounts 2021
STRATEGIC REPORT DIRECTORS’ REPORT ACCOUNTS
63
Annual Report and Accounts 2021Greggs plc
RISK MANAGEMENT CONTINUED
RISK MANAGEMENT CONTINUED
Viability statement
The Directors have assessed the Company’s prospects and
viability taking into account its current position, plans and
principal risks. The assessment has considered the
continuing uncertainty around the pace of recovery from the
pandemic, however given the recovery through 2021 this is
less of a concern than it was at the prior year reporting date.
In carrying out its assessment the Board has reviewed the
three-year operational and financial plans to 2024. This is
the period over which the Board reviews management’s
business planning and sets performance targets, and
therefore the Board believes that this is the most appropriate
timeframe over which to make the viability assessment.
The Directors have carried out a robust assessment of the
principal risks facing the Company, including those that
would threaten its business model, future performance,
solvency or liquidity. The impact of the pandemic has been
reflected in the risk that the entire business could be
temporarily prevented from trading and be faced with
prolonged periods of subdued demand, with consequent
pressures on liquidity.
The principal risks to which the Company is exposed
ultimately affect the ability of its shops to trade successfully,
either due to reduced demand or because of operational
interruptions, including those to its internal supply chain.
A significant loss of sales is particularly damaging given
the Company’s vertical integration in that the cost of the
internal supply chain cannot be reduced quickly.
In order to stress-test the Company’s financial resilience
scenarios were created to simulate the impact arising from
the occurrence of the following principal risks:
1. Pandemic threat – the risk that the Company is forced to
close its shops to walk-in customers for three months as a
result of lockdown rules, and experiences subdued levels
of walk-in trade as the economy recovers. Delivery
channel sales are assumed to continue through the
lockdown months with a 50% increase in volume as
customers switch channels, as are ‘bake at home’ sales
through the Company’s wholesale relationship with
Iceland Foods. This forward scenario assumes that
Government support would continue to be available for the
support of employment and that relief from business rates
would be available during the periods of forced closure.
2. A brand-damaging food scare resulting in a significant
one-year sales reduction followed by gradual recovery
of confidence. In making assumptions the Directors
considered real examples of companies in the food sector
that had experienced such issues.
3. Temporary loss of production capacity for the Company’s
iconic pastry savoury products and the consequences for
liquidity as capacity is restored.
In each case the Directors reviewed the mitigating actions
that would be necessary to protect the Company’s liquidity.
These included:
– The temporary suspension of dividend payments in order
to preserve cash for operational use;
– Restriction of capital expenditure whilst protecting
essential infrastructure maintenance and commitments
to strategic investments;
– Access to Government support;
– Drawing on existing committed financing facilities; and
– Calling on the Company’s insurance arrangements on the
occurrence of an insured risk.
The scenarios tested were capable of being managed within
the Company’s existing, committed financing facilities. The
pandemic scenario presents by far the greatest financial
stress to the business, and this simulation does show a
breach to the fixed interest cover covenant at one reporting
date. Given the Company’s relationship with lenders, and the
actions of banks through the original Covid-19 pandemic, the
Directors believe it is reasonable to conclude that a waiver
would be secured.
Given the opening cash position in 2022 the Company does
have sufficient existing and committed financing facilities to
manage in a situation where multiple principal risk scenarios
occurred concurrently. This will likely not be the case in
future years as we increase capital expenditure and dividend
payments. In the event of multiple principal risk scenarios
occurring concurrently which necessitate additional
financing facilities the Directors believe that the borrowing
capacity of the Company would be sufficient to allow it
access to temporary additional facilities.
Based on the results of the analysis, the Directors have a
reasonable expectation that the Company will be able to
continue in operation and meet its liabilities as they fall due
over the three-year period of their detailed assessment.
Covid-19 pandemic response
The Covid-19 pandemic has continued to impact the business
throughout the year. Although our response has now become
part of our ‘business as usual’ process, a summary of
additional actions taken during the year to mitigate the risks
facing the business is set out below. We continue to prioritise
the safety, health and wellbeing of our customers and
colleagues.
– Government guidelines continue to be followed as a
minimum, with processes being amended as required to
reflect changes.
– Colleagues required to self-isolate have been supported.
– Where resource levels have been insufficient to operate
safely, we have reduced our operating hours, or closed
shops completely to allow us to consolidate our staff into
fewer shops.
– Central support teams have continued to work from home
where appropriate, to ensure that office capacity is
managed. Our homeworking guidance and associated
policies have been refreshed.
– We have moved to a blend of virtual and physical
meetings, to allow us to meet face-to-face where there
is a benefit in doing so.
– We have continued to engage with key external
stakeholders, including regulatory bodies, advisors and
Government agencies.
– Communication with our teams has continued, to ensure
that everyone is aware of changes to process and the
reasons behind them.
– Operational costs continue to be managed tightly across
the business.
– Our digital roll out has continued at pace, giving us access
to new customers via the Greggs App.
– Our partnership with Just Eat has been further expanded,
to cover more of our estate.
– We are taking additional opportunities to expand and
diversify our shop estate, for example, through increasing
our presence in Greater London and engaging with new
franchise partners to access travel locations.
We believe that our ongoing response to the pandemic
demonstrates the resilience and adaptability of the business.
The strategic report was approved by the Board of Directors
on 8 March 2022 and signed on its behalf by
Roger Whiteside
Chief Executive
8 March 2022