
The Directors have considered a downside
scenario which anticipates a slower recovery
in which membership numbers only return to
88% of pre-pandemic levels (December 2019)
by the end of the going concern period.
Under this scenario, all financial covenants
continue to be passed and the Group
continues to operate within its financing
facilities.
The Directors have also considered a reverse
stress test scenario that modelled the impact of
a significant downturn in trading and resulting
drop in membership numbers. Mitigating
actions were also modelled including moving
to a minimum level of maintenance capital
expenditure, reducing discretionary
expenditure in order to preserve cash and a
deliberate slowing down or temporary
cessation of the rollout programme. In this
scenario, the number of new members each
month would have to decline by 26%
compared to the base case (the equivalent of
membership reducing to 82% of the February
2022 closing membership number) before the
fixed charges cover covenant would be
breached in December 2022. However, the
Group would remain within its liquidity limits.
In the event of a reverse stress test scenario, the
Directors would introduce additional measures
to mitigate the impact on the Group’s liquidity,
covenants and cash flow, including: (i) further
reductions in controllable operating costs,
marketing and capital expenditure;
(ii) discussions with lenders to secure additional
debt facilities and/or covenant waivers;
(iii) deferral of, or reductions in, rent payments
to landlords; and (iv) the potential to raise
additional funds from third parties.
The Directors believe that the success of the
UK’s booster vaccination programme and
the fact that all sectors of the economy
remained open for business during winter
2021/22, despite the recent Omicron
outbreak, are strong indicators that further
prolonged periods of enforced closure are
highly unlikely. In addition, the Group has a
very good relationship with its lenders who
have been supportive throughout the
pandemic. The lenders understand the
Group’s business model, our significant
profit and cash generation in months when
gyms are fully open, and our relatively low
gearing. As a result, in the unlikely event
there was another national lockdown, the
Directors believe that the banks would
continue to support the Group with covenant
flexibility in the form of waivers or
amendments, as they have done on a
number of occasions during previous
lockdown periods. The Directors therefore
consider that the combination of a lockdown
and a subsequent lack of flexibility from the
banks is remote.
Conclusion
The Board has reviewed the financial
forecasts and downside scenarios of the
Group and has a reasonable expectation
that the Group has adequate resources to
continue in operational existence for the
period to 30 June 2023. As a result, the
Directors continue to adopt the going
concern basis in preparing these
consolidated financial statements. In
making this assessment, consideration has
been given to the current and future
expected trading performance; the Group’s
current and forecast liquidity position; the
continued positive momentum with regards
the COVID-19 situation and success of the
UK booster vaccination programme; the
support received to date from our lenders
and shareholders; and the mitigating
actions that can be deployed in the event
of reasonable downside scenarios.
Viability
As stated above in the going concern
assessment, the Directors have a
reasonable expectation that the Group has
adequate resources to continue in
operational existence for the period to
30 June 2023. However, in accordance
with provision 31 of the UK Corporate
Governance Code 2018, the Directors
have also assessed the longer-term viability
of the Group, taking into account the
Group’s current position and the potential
impact of the principal and emerging risks
documented earlier in this report (including
climate change risk) that would threaten its
business model, future performance,
solvency or liquidity.
The Directors have determined that the
three-year period to 31 December 2024 is
an appropriate period over which to assess
the Group’s viability as:
• the Directors review a three-year
financial plan each year as part of an
annual strategy review with management
and the viability analysis is based
primarily from this plan; and
• the period is sufficient to reflect the return
to stable mature membership numbers
and see the maturation of new sites
opened in 2020 and 2021.
Whilst the viability review has considered
all the principal risks identified by the
Group, the Directors have concluded that
the risks that would most materially threaten
the Group’s growth drivers, future
performance, solvency or liquidity were
significant business interruption,
operational gearing, our people and scale
of change. Severe but plausible downside
scenarios based on these risks were
therefore created against which liquidity
and debt covenant headroom analysis was
performed. The Directors considered the
fact that the Group’s RCF facility is currently
expected to expire in October 2024 and
concluded that there is a realistic prospect
that this will be extended to cover the
whole of the viability assessment period.
The downside scenarios included
modelling a severe but plausible decline in
membership numbers vs the base case
plan; a significant increase in employee
and utilities costs over and above that
included in the base case plan; and a
severe slowdown in the site rollout plan.
Management also performed a reverse
stress test in which a further, more severe
and prolonged decline in member intake
was modelled. In both the downside
scenarios and the reverse stress test
scenario, mitigating actions were modelled,
including moving to a minimum level of
maintenance capital expenditure, reducing
discretionary expenditure in order to
preserve cash and a deliberate slowing
down or temporary cessation of the rollout
programme.
Having concluded the above viability
assessment, the Directors have a
reasonable expectation that the Group will
be able to continue in operation and meet
its liabilities as they fall due over the period
to 31 December 2024.
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTSSTRATEGIC REPORTOVERVIEW GOVERNANCE