
Strategic
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Governance
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Financial
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The Gym Group plc | Annual Report and Accounts 2022 The Gym Group plc | Annual Report and Accounts 2022
62 | | 63
Strategic report
Principal risks and uncertainties continued
Changes in principal risks
in2022
In the 2021 Annual Report and
Accounts, ‘Scale of change’ was
included as a Group principal risk.
Given the successful delivery of a
number of significant projects in
FY22 in relation to technology and
brand, as well as the reduction in the
number of new sites expected to be
opened in FY23, the Board believes
that the execution risk in relation to
the delivery of major strategic projects
has significantly reduced and, as such,
that ‘Scale of change’ is no longer a
Group principal risk. We do, however,
continue to monitor the risk and ensure
appropriate mitigations are in place as
part of our ongoing risk management
process. In addition, there remains
significant demand on resources to
optimise the brand and technology.
The impact of this is captured in the
risk entitled ‘Our people’.
Emerging risks
In addition to the principal risks set
out on the previous pages, the SMT
and Board also consider emerging
risks as part of their review. These are
risks that, whilst not currently believed
to be principal risks to the Group, are
clearly important to us and could have
a significant impact on the ability
of the business to fulfil its strategic
objectives in the future.
Climate change continues to be
included in our emerging risks register.
The full potential impact of this risk
cannot yet be quantified with any
certainty; however, we have included
a range of scenarios, and mitigating
actions within the TCFD disclosures on
pages 50-53.
Going concern
In assessing the going concern position
of the Group for the year ended
31 December 2022, the Directors have
considered the following:
l the Group’s trading performance
in FY22 and throughout the
traditional January and February
2023 peak period;
l future expected trading
performance to June 2024 (the
going concern period), including
membership levels and behaviours
in light of the current difficult
macroeconomic environment; and
l the Group’s financing
arrangements and relationship
with its lenders and shareholders.
2022 was a year of significant
recovery and growth for The Gym
Group, with membership at the end
of December 2022 reaching 821,000,
an increase of 14.3% from the end
of December 2021. Average revenue
per member per month for the year
(‘ARPMM’) was £17.82 and for the
second half of the year was £18.30,
up 4.5% on the second half of the
prior year. LIVE IT, the premium price
product, ended the year at 29.6% of
total membership compared with 27.1%
in December 2021. As a result, revenue
and Group Adjusted EBITDA both
increased significantly. The Group
also reported strong cash generation,
with free cash flow of £16.6m being
generated and used to part-fund the
25 organic site openings as well as
our investment in the new technology
and brand. The remaining organic
site openings and the acquisition
of the three sites previously trading
under the Fitness First brand were
funded through an increase in the
Group’s borrowings. All sites opened
in the year are performing in line with
ourexpectations.
In May 2022, the Group agreed with
its lenders certain changes to the
Group’s Revolving Credit Facility
(‘RCF’). As a result, the Group now
has access to a combined £80m
facility which matures in October
2024. The Group also currently has
access to £13m of finance lease
facilities (£15m permitted under the
RCF). As at 31 December 2022, the
Group had Non-Property Net Debt
(including finance leases) of £76.1m,
with £15.4m of headroom (calculated
off bank debt less cash) under the
RCF. The RCF is subject to quarterly
financial covenant tests on leverage
(Net Debt to Group Adjusted EBITDA
Less Normalised Rent), fixed charge
cover (Adjusted EBITDAR to Net
Finance Charges and Normalised
Rent) and minimum liquidity. Whilst
the going concern assessment covers
the period to the end of June 2024,
the Directors have considered the
fact that the Group’s RCF facility
is currently expected to expire in
October 2024 and concluded that
there is a realistic prospect that this
will be extended or refinanced before
that time.
Following the January and February
2023 peak trading period, closing
membership at 28 February 2023 was
890,000 members, an increase of
8.4% on the position at 31 December
2022. However, demand has been
impacted by the cost-of-living
pressures felt by many; and the
Directors expect the current difficult
macroeconomic environment and
consumer behaviour to continue. As
a result, we have taken a cautious
approach to preparing the three
year financial plan that underpins the
going concern review.
The base case forecast for the period
to 30 June 2024 anticipates continued
growth in yields across the whole estate
as a result of pricing actions that have
already been taken. However, modest
increases in membership levels are
driven largely by the sites opened in
2022 and not by growth in the mature
estate. In addition, the Directors have
taken a more measured approach to
new site openings throughout the plan
period, with all new sites assumed to be
self-financed. Under this scenario, all
financial covenants are passed with
a reasonable level of headroom and
the Group can operate within its
financing facilities.
The Directors have considered a
downside scenario which anticipates
a more significant cost-of-living
downturn throughout the period
under review. Under this scenario,
membership numbers in the mature
estate start to deviate from the
base case from March 2023 such
that they are approximately 10%
lower by the end of 2023. Yields do
continue to increase but at a much
lower level than under the base case.
Under this scenario, the number of
new site openings is reduced and
discretionary performance-related
bonuses removed to ensure that all
financial covenants continue to be
passed and the Group continues to
operate within its financing facilities.
The Directors have also considered
a reverse stress test scenario to
ascertain the extent of the downturn
in trading that would be required
to breach the Group’s banking
covenants or liquidity requirements.
Mitigating actions assumed in this
scenario include moving to a minimum
level of maintenance and IT capital
expenditure; reducing controllable
operating costs and marketing
expenditure; and pausing the new
site opening programme in order
to preserve cash. In this scenario,
the number of new members each
month would have to decline by 16.5%
compared to the base case (the
equivalent of membership reducing
to 73% of the February 2023 closing
membership number) before the
leverage covenant would be breached
in June 2024. However, the Group
would remain within its liquidity limits.
In the event of a reverse stress
test scenario, the Directors would
introduce additional measures to
mitigate the impact on the Group’s
liquidity, covenants and cash flow,
including: (i) further reductions
in controllable operating costs,
marketing and capital expenditure;
(ii) discussions with lenders to secure
additional debt facilities and/or
covenant waivers; (iii) deferral of,
or reductions in, rent payments to
landlords; and (iv) the potential to
raise additional funds from third
parties. The Directors consider the
reverse stress test scenario to be
highly unlikely.
Conclusion
The Board has reviewed the financial
plan and downside scenarios of
the Group and has a reasonable
expectation that the Group has
adequate resources to continue
in operational existence for the
period to 30 June 2024. As a result,
the Directors continue to adopt the
going concern basis in preparing the
consolidated financial statements.
In making this assessment,
consideration has been given to the
current and future expected trading
performance; the Group’s current
and forecast liquidity position and
the support received to date from
our lenders and shareholders; and
the mitigating actions that can be
deployed in the event of reasonable
downside scenarios.
Viability
As stated in the going concern
assessment, the Directors have a
reasonable expectation that the
Group has adequate resources to
continue in operational existence for
the period to 30 June 2024. However,
in accordance with provision 31
of the UK Corporate Governance
Code 2018, the Directors have also
assessed the longer term viability
of the Group, taking into account
the Group’s current position and the
potential impact of the principal and
emerging risks documented earlier in
this report (including climate change
risk) that would threaten its business
model, future performance, solvency
or liquidity.
The Directors have determined that the
three year period to 31 December 2025
is an appropriate period over which to
assess the Group’s viability as:
l the Directors review a three year
financial plan with management
each year as part of an annual
strategy review and the viability
analysis is based primarily on this
plan; and
l the period is sufficient to reflect
the return to stable mature
membership numbers and see the
maturation of new sites opened in
2021 and 2022.
Whilst the viability review has
considered all the principal risks
identified by the Group, the Directors
have concluded that the risks that
would most materially threaten
the Group’s growth drivers, future
performance, solvency or liquidity
were operational gearing, the trading
environment, a structural change in
the industry and our people. Severe
but plausible downside scenarios
based on these risks were therefore
created against which liquidity and
debt covenant headroom analysis was
performed. The Directors considered
the fact that the Group’s RCF facility
of £80m is currently expected to
expire in October 2024 and concluded
that there is a realistic prospect that
this will be extended to cover the whole
of the viability assessment period.
The downside scenarios included
modelling a severe but plausible
decline in membership numbers
compared with the base case plan
and a significant increase in costs
(in particular employee and utilities
costs) over and above that included
in the base case plan. The Directors
have also considered a reverse
stress test scenario to ascertain the
extent of the downturn in trading
that would be required to breach the
Group’s banking covenants or liquidity
requirements. In both the downside
scenarios and the reverse stress
test scenario, mitigating actions
assumed include moving to a minimum
level of maintenance and IT capital
expenditure; reducing controllable
operating costs and marketing
expenditure; and pausing the new
site opening programme in order to
preserve cash.
Having concluded the above viability
assessment, the Directors have a
reasonable expectation that the
Group will be able to continue in
operation and meet its liabilities
as they fall due over the period to
31 December 2025.