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ICG-Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt Investments Limited
Annual Report And Consolidated Financial Statements
INVESTMENT MANAGER’S REPORT (CONTINUED)
ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
In 2021 the UK economy bounced back to its pre-pandemic
(February 2020) level, with 7.5% GDP growth on the year. After a
drop in December resulting from the Omicron variant, January
2022 saw a rebound with a 0.8% GDP rise, and growth reported
across all sectors, according to the ONS. This slowed to 0.1%
in February 2022 and latest Bank of England growth forecasts
indicate the UK economy will contract from Q4 2022 and into 2023.
Despite the sedate level of growth, the high and rising inflation
levels have led to four increases in Bank rate over the past
few months, from 0.1% in Q4 2021 to 1.0% currently. The
MPC seems to be walking a tightrope on rates between rising
inflation, driven by rocketing energy prices on the one hand and
sluggish economic growth on the other, with an increasingly
challenging global economic outlook. The market is nonetheless
pricing in at least three more rate rises by year end.
Labour markets however continue to show strength and have
largely shaken off the Covid-19 disruption. The UK employment
rate rose by 0.1% to 75.5% in Q4 2021, with a further 108,000
jobs added in January, taking payrolled employees to a record
29.5 million. The unemployment rate was 3.8% in the three
months to February 2022 and job vacancies also remain high.
Nominal wages are growing, with average pay including
bonuses rising 5.4% in the three months to February. The
challenge for the UK economy is that this rate of growth is not
keeping up with inflation. With CPI at 7.0% in March 2022 and
RPI still higher, and tax rises and further energy price hikes
to come, many households will see their finances come under
pressure this year.
OCCUPATIONAL DEMAND/SUPPLY
Offices
The prevailing Government narrative through the latter part
of 2021 and coming into 2022 is supporting a ‘return to work’
policy, reversing the work from home Covid-19 policy prevalent
over the previous two years.
Whilst this change in guidance – combined with steady
momentum of employers encouraging a return to the workplace
– should bolster office demand relative to the previous two
years, the more widespread acceptance of flexible working
generally may impact absolute levels of office demand. As
highlighted in last year’s report, some commentators such as
Savills consider that this will be offset by reducing densities (i.e.
offering more space per worker and greater amenity provision).
Knight Frank’s latest occupational survey, for example,
highlights that 65% of businesses surveyed plan to either
increase or maintain the amount of office space they occupy, but
change how the space is utilised, with fewer desks and more
common areas, amenity and collaborative spaces.
In the leasing markets, Manchester City Centre leasing
statistics for FY2021, reported by Knight Frank, note a positive
rebound in take-up to levels close to the 5 and 10 year
averages, both in terms of square footage and number of
deals, together with c.750k sq ft of active requirements in the
market. Conversely, Savills report that, whilst Central London
has also seen a rebound in demand (+54% YoY as at the end of
November 2021), take-up remains c.22% below the long-term
average. Bristol had a steady year, with take up being 7% below
the 10-year average but Q4 2021 being the second-highest
quarterly figure in the past five years. The strength of the Bristol
occupational market has been evidenced by the letting success
seen in the property securing the Company’s Affinity loan.
A developing trend is that of employers seeking to provide
higher quality workplaces to continue to maintain the attraction
of the office to employees and coax them back into the cities.
Additionally, firms are increasingly realising the importance
of their office estates in delivering – and signalling – their
commitments to sustainability and climate goals. We therefore
expect a polarisation in the market between best-in-class (Grade
A) offerings and the Grade B/C market. This is supported by the
major consultancies, including JLL who comment that they expect
the rental differential between prime space and the rest to widen
as occupiers focus on best-in-class offices, particularly those with
a high focus on sustainability, wellness and smart technology.
According to JLL, in their ‘Big 6’ regional office market review,
overall vacancy rates are 6.2% across all classes of office, but
only 2.8% in Grade A stock and forecast to fall further. Prime
rents continued to increase across the regional markets, with
all now showing record rents and Edinburgh and Glasgow
showing the strongest growth on the year. JLL forecast further
increases in 2022, supported by favourable supply/demand
dynamics, with a number of cities expected to breach the £40
per sq ft level in the coming months.
The Central London market, according to Savills, will see
material development and refurbishment activity over the next
three years, with a record level of 7.4m sq ft scheduled for
delivery in 2023, and a similar level anticipated for 2024. Total
forecast deliveries over the next five years are only 17% pre-let,
with Savills estimating that the speculative pipeline for the
next five years equates to c.43 months of average estimated
post-Covid-19 take-up of 7m sq ft per annum. This highlights a
potential oversupply issue in parts of the Central London market
that may put pressure on prime rental levels.
Industrial and warehousing
The structural tailwinds supporting the UK industrial and
warehousing market continued in 2021, with a new annual
record take-up of 55.1m sq ft reported by Savills, surpassing
the previously exceptional total of 51.6m sq ft in 2020 and 86%
above the long-term average. The take-up in terms of square
footage was mirrored by the number of deals, with 220 separate
transactions recorded in the +50,000 sq ft bracket; the first time
there has been more than 200 transactions in a calendar year.
Supply continues to fall with the vacancy rate standing at
2.9%, the lowest level ever recorded, with market conditions
supportive of speculative development with the result that
18.6m sq ft is under construction.
The supply/demand dynamics have promoted significant year-
on-year rental growth in almost all key UK markets, with quoted
Grade A rents increasing in the East Midlands (+29% YoY), West
Midlands (+26%), Yorkshire & North East (+20%) and East of
England (+16%).
The positive market conditions have also been seen in the multi-
let sub-sector, with Gerald Eve reporting a continued decline
in void rates and annualised rental growth in London (+7.4%
YoY) and across the wider UK market (+5%). Although Amazon’s
recent announcement of falling year-on-year sales may take
some of the heat out of the sector.
Retail
The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated pre-existing trends of
online sales growth, with the ONS reporting that online sales
penetration peaked at c.38% of total sales in January 2021
(versus pre-pandemic penetration of c.20%). Clothing/fashion
retailers appear to have been more heavily affected by the
pandemic, with more defensive areas such as food retail and
DIY faring better.
With Covid-19 restrictions now ended, Google mobility data
indicates that footfall is now close to pre-pandemic levels
on an aggregate basis, however PwC note that the footfall
recovery is more polarised at sub-sector level, with retail parks
outperforming shopping centres and the high street.