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Value and Indexed Property Income Trust PLC
• Annual Report and Financial Statements 2023
The economy
The UK economy is still flatlining,
lagging global GDP growth, now
expected by the IMF to be around 3%
over the next year. Average earnings
and productivity have shown little
growth since the Global Financial
Crisis hit us especially hard in
2008-9. More recently, business
investment has stagnated since
2016, in the words of the Office
for Budget Responsibility, due to
uncertainty about the UK’s future
trading relationship with the EU
among other concerns. Different
governments have tried different
policies and remedies, often pulling
in opposite directions from their
predecessors, to increase investment
and productivity growth, but to little
net effect. The UK is running the
highest public sector and overseas
trade deficits in the G7 group of
developed nations and is the only one
with GDP still lower than pre-COVID.
Our labour market is particularly
tight, due partly to Brexit, partly to a
deep seated skills and training deficit
and partly to older people leaving
work post-COVID. Consumer price
inflation remains above Western
Europe and the USA, with rapidly
rising food prices keeping the
Consumer Price Index rising at an
annual rate of 10.1% for March and
13.5% for the Retail Price Index.
The UK’s sclerotic housing
market, with prices and rents
both significantly higher than
in our main Western competitor
countries, remains a drag on our
economic performance, as a source
of financial instability and a barrier
to geographic and social mobility.
The Government’s Help To Buy
scheme increased demand for house
purchase but not supply, pushing
up home prices and housebuilders’
profits. Only 205,000 homes were
completed in the year to April 2022,
against 330,000 in 1972 and about
400,000 in 1962, and this year will
be worse. Private sector completions
have shown little change, but social
housebuilding by local authorities
and housing associations has
collapsed, and existing social
housing has been transferred to the
private rental sector at much higher
cost. Changes to stamp duty and
interest deductibility for private
landlords in recent years have led
to an exodus of small landlords and
upward pressure on rents. With over
80% of mortgages at fixed rates and
employment still high, house prices
are less vulnerable to rising interest
rates than in previous downturns,
but they are already now about 5%
off their late 2022 peak. Housing,
whether to buy or to rent, would still
be exceptionally unaffordable in
most areas of the UK by long-term
standards, with the only obvious
sustainable solution being for
much more genuinely affordable
social housing to be built again.
The UK economy is in a deeper
structural hole than many similar
countries post-COVID, with pay
rises running well behind the rate
of price increases, especially for
essentials like food and heating
which leave little spare spending
power for the lower paid. But
poverty is quite polarised, with many
people still holding high savings
post-pandemic and keen to spend,
but not in predictable patterns.
Business and consumer confidence
are starting to improve, partly out
of relief at calmer Government
and partly as gas and electricity
prices fall back. The warm winter
in Europe, and major reductions in
gas usage, in particular, due both
to high prices and smarter usage,
are leading to sharp falls in some
energy and commodity prices, so
international inflation rates should
fall this year, but not to anywhere
near 2% in the foreseeable future.