Research Thesis
July 15, 2026
Emergent BioSolutions: leveraged biodefense name trades like a Narcan story while international MCM mix hits 37%
A $413.3M small-cap MCM franchise that has signed a $140M Canada agreement, a $54M ASPR award, and an ACAM2000 modification while net leverage fell to 1.9x and a $50M buyback was reauthorized — yet the equity is the worst YTD performer in the peer set with 19.9% short interest, leaving the print of the next four quarters to test whether the international MCM pivot can offset the Narcan generics drag.
