Earnings Call Transcript - ACLS Q1 2021

Operator, Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Axcelis Technologies Call to discuss the company's results for the First Quarter 2021. My name is Chelsea, and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session towards the end of this conference. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Mary Puma, President and CEO of Axcelis Technologies. Please proceed, ma'am.

Mary Puma, President and CEO

Thank you, Chelsea. With me today is Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Doug Lawson, Executive Vice President of Corporate Marketing and Strategy. We are all participating in this call remotely. So, I would like to apologize in advance for any technical difficulties. If you've not seen a copy of our press release issued last night, it is available on our website. Playback service will also be available on our website as described in our press release. Please note that comments made today about our expectations for future revenues, profits, and other results are forward-looking statements under the SEC's Safe Harbor provision. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks inherent in our business. These risks are described in detail in our Form 10-K, annual report, and other SEC filings, which we urge you to review. Our actual results may differ materially from our current expectations. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Good morning and thank you for joining us. Axcelis posted another strong quarter as a result of overall strength in the semiconductor market, combined with the growing momentum of the Purion product line. Revenue for the first quarter was $132.8 million with earnings per share at $0.48, driven by strong gross margins of 42.5%. Our aftermarket business, or what we refer to as CS&I, once again contributed significantly to our revenue and gross margin. CS&I revenue in Q1 was $51.8 million. This strong performance was a result of high fab utilization, the growing Purion installed base, and significant upgrades in used tool sales. We couldn't have achieved these results without the strong support of our employees. They have continued to manage well through the many complexities brought on by trade tensions and the continuing pandemic. I'd like to thank them for their dedication through these difficult and challenging times. In the first quarter, the growing mature process technology market continued to be an area of strength for Axcelis, with 82% of Q1 shipments going to mature foundry/logic customers. The other 18% of shipments went to NAND memory customers. Even with the expected increase in memory revenues later in the year, we believe the Mature Process Technology segment will account for greater than 70% of system revenue for the full year 2021. During the fourth quarter of 2020, the U.S. government placed Chinese foundry customer, SMIC, on the Entity List, meaning that export licenses are required for all Axcelis shipments to SMIC. We applied immediately for these licenses, but have found the approval process to be slower than anticipated. Since no licenses were issued in the first quarter, we were not able to ship any systems or parts to SMIC. Early in Q2, we were granted our first export licenses and began shipping approved systems and parts to SMIC. Our guidance reflects our expectations relative to this process. As a result, the geographic mix of our systems shipments in the first quarter was Korea 44%, China 39%, and Europe 17%. Although the percentage of China shipments was down from last quarter, we have a strong domestic and multinational customer base in that country across multiple market segments. Business with domestic Chinese customers in the Mature Process Technology segment, in particular, remained quite strong. For the second quarter, we expect revenue of between $135 million and $140 million, gross margins of approximately 41.5%, operating profit between $19 million and $21 million, and earnings per share between $0.43 and $0.47. Hitting the midpoint of this Q2 revenue guidance will signify reaching the quarterly run rate of our $550 million model. In fact, Axcelis is on track to exceed $550 million in revenue for the full year 2021, achieving this goal a year ahead of schedule. Given market trends and the strength of Purion base products and new product extensions, we have come to believe two things. First, that it’s possible that we can also reach our $650 million model sooner than expected, perhaps hitting a quarterly run rate before the end of 2022. And second, that there is an implant-driven revenue model beyond $650 million that Axcelis can achieve. These developments are very exciting and point to a potential path forward for stronger than expected growth. Before turning the call over to Kevin, I’d like to provide a short update on our products and key market segments. The power device and image sensor markets are very important to Axcelis. As we have said before, we hold a leadership position in implant in both of these specialty markets. In the second quarter, we shipped multiple Purion VXEs to image sensor customers, as well as Purion H200 silicon carbide and Purion M silicon carbide systems to silicon carbide power device customers. With the shipment of the first Purion H200 silicon carbide tool, Axcelis can now provide power device customers with a full suite of Purion products to support all of their ion implant needs. Evaluations are key to developing new customers, increasing footprint at existing customers, and penetrating new segments. We currently have six Purion evaluation tools in the field focused on supporting future growth. During the first quarter, we closed the evaluation of a Purion VXE and shipped a Purion XEmax evaluation to a second customer for use in advanced image sensor development. The six evaluation systems, which include a Purion Dragon, a Purion H200, two Purion Hs, and two Purion XEmaxes, are positioned across key target segments including advanced logic, NAND, DRAM, image sensor, and power devices. We expect these systems to contribute to our future growth.

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Thank you, Mary, and good morning. Axcelis delivered strong first quarter financial performance thanks to the continuing outstanding work of all of our employees and supply chain partners. During this ongoing pandemic, the health and well-being of our employees remains a top priority, and we are doing our best to create a safe work environment for everyone at Axcelis. Pandemic-related protocols that were implemented during 2020 remain in place. Our pandemic response team is closely monitoring the situation and continues to update these actions as required. We are excited about the accelerating growth that we believe can take us beyond our $650 million in revenue. We currently have sufficient manufacturing capacity in place to achieve this run rate. Plus, since we are seeing growth more quickly than anticipated, we have decided to bring on additional manufacturing capacity. Our operations team is focused on adding manufacturing capacity closer to some of our largest customers for the goal of increasing customer satisfaction. Turning to the first quarter financial result, Q1 revenue finished at $132.8 million, compared to $122.2 million in Q4. Q1 system sales were $81 million, compared to $64.2 million in Q4. Q1 CS&I revenue finished at $51.8 million, compared to $58 million in Q4. CS&I revenue was driven by strong upgrades in used tool sales. We expect Q1 CS&I revenue of approximately $40 million and recommend modeling the second-half at $42 million per quarter. Q1 sales of our top 10 customers accounted for 79.8% of our total sales, compared to 81.5% in Q4. One customer was above 10% in Q1, compared to 3% in Q4. Q1 system bookings were $148.4 million, compared to $131.5 million in Q4, with a Q1 book-to-bill ratio of 1.92 versus 1.98 in Q4. Backlog in Q1, including deferred revenue, finished at $186.5 million, a new record for Axcelis, compared to $116.2 million in Q4. Q1 combined SG&A and R&D spending was $36.1 million or 27.2% of revenue, compared to $38.9 million or 31.8% in Q4. SG&A in the quarter was $20.4 million, with R&D at $15.7 million. We expect Q2 spending to be similar to Q1 at approximately 27% of revenue. Q1 gross margin was 42.5% and above our guidance, driven by strength in CS&I, product mix, and continued cross-sell activity. We are guiding Q2 gross margin of approximately 41.5%. Gross margin will continue to fluctuate quarter-to-quarter based on product and customer mix, the memory evaluation tool's quality, and the level of revenue contribution from CS&I business. We are continuing to experience some higher costs from placing pandemic-related protocols which I expect will linger throughout the year. Operating profit in Q1 finished at $20.3 million compared to $14.1 million in Q4. We are guiding Q2 operating profit of approximately $19 to $21 million. Q1 net income was $15.5 million or $0.48 per share compared to $14.7 million or $0.43 per share in Q4. We are guiding Q2 EPS of approximately $0.43 to $0.47. This guidance reflects any known impact from the coronavirus and the export license speculation. Q1 cash finished at $207.5 million compared to $204.3 million in Q4. In the quarter, we generated $15.1 million of cash in operation and repurchased share worth $12.5 million. Q1 receivables were $75.9 million compared to $86.9 million in Q4. Q1 inventory ended at $174.4 million compared to $161.1 million in Q4. In the quarter finished tools inventory increased due to the export license situation. Q1 inventory trends excluding evaluation tools finished at 2.0, the same as Q4. Q1 accounts payable was $40.5 million compared to $24 million in Q4. I am excited about the ongoing strength of the industry and customer demand for Axcelis products. We have a strong balance sheet which is enabling the right level business investment while returning capital to our shareholders through the share repurchase program. Additional manufacturing capacity is targeted at improving customer satisfaction and supporting our growth results. I hope that all of you and your family are staying healthy during the pandemic. Hopefully as more people become vaccinated, we can finally get back to normal times. Thank you. And I'll now turn the call back to Mary for her closing comments.

Mary Puma, President and CEO

Thank you, Kevin. We are encouraged and excited by our future as we move into a post-COVID environment. The strong multi-year trends of the industry cycle and growth in the adoption of new technology that uses ever-increasing chip content bode well for customer investment and capacity. The incentive plan to address challenging and emerging customer manufacturing requirements will likely expand the implant TAM and accelerate the adoption of our differentiated Purion products and services across all segments. Axcelis has the financial means to invest in R&D, global support infrastructure, and capacity to capitalize on all of these opportunities. The ingredients for continuing success are in place and will drive our leadership in ion implantation. With that, I would like to open it up for questions.

Patrick Ho, Analyst

Thank you very much, and congrats on the nice quarter. Actually, I have two questions for Kevin. Gross margins you performed very well in the first quarter, and as you mentioned there are only moving pieces with it, but as we look at the next several quarters with some of the moving pieces you talked about evaluation assistance, continued cross-sell program, and even customer mix potentially impacting over the next few quarters. What are the biggest influences you're doing that will impact gross margins one way or the other over the next few quarters?

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, thank you, Patrick. At the start of the year, we anticipated that gross margins would be similar to last year. However, considering our progress with the cross-sell roadmap, we are likely ahead of where we expected to be, and we now believe our revenues will exceed or surpass the $550 million revenue target for this year. While the cross-sell roadmaps are progressing well, volumes will still depend on customer demand. I realize I was mistaken in saying that we're on track for our $550 million revenue target this year. We have our gross margin goals set, and even though we are slightly ahead, there is a possibility we might end up at the lower end of those gross margin ranges. Currently, I estimate that our gross margin will be around 42%, give or take a little. Overall, despite the various moving pieces and the ongoing changes, I believe we are on track for a very solid year in terms of gross margin.

Patrick Ho, Analyst

Great, that's helpful. And my follow-up question, Kevin, is on the supply chain and the inventory situation. Given that there are constraints in the ecosystem itself, you guys still managed it very well from an inventory and supply chain perspective. But again, with a lot of moving parts and evaluation systems, and just customer demand picking up, how are you managing your inventory levels and your ability to procure supplies to not only meet demand but to get these evaluation systems into the field?

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. So, we've continued to have our planning with sales in place for long lead material. The real trick is to make sure we've got the long lead. And I think you would acknowledge we're a little flush with inventory right now. I mean, the churn is holding it through. But we've been driving ahead of this thing really since the pandemic started because my philosophy was always if I get out of line, we are not going to be able to get back in. So, I think we are in pretty good shape, Patrick, from a supply chain point of view. There are obviously issues that pop up on a daily basis. But that's not new, right? Everybody goes through that. There is no doubt that everybody is running hard right now. It's not just Axcelis that is doing well. The peer group as well is doing remarkably well at this point. So, there's pressure there. But I think the key is to stay ahead of it, maybe drive inventory a little bit sooner than we need it, which we have been doing. And we should be good to execute on the plan this year.

Craig Ellis, Analyst

Yes, thanks for taking the question. And team congratulations not only on the quarterly execution, but on all the strategic progress to the intermediate and long-term goal. So, Mary, I wanted to start just with a question for you on calendar '21, so nice to see the company feeling confident about the $550 million, that implies given 1Q results and 2Q guidance at least $140 million a quarter on average in the back half of the year, so the question is can you just share with us the visibility that you have and any thoughts on linearity that we might see as we go through the back-half of the year?

Mary Puma, President and CEO

Thanks very much, Craig. So, we expect 2021 to be a great year. At this point, we see demand holding up and remaining strong across all market segments. We think this is through the multiyear cycle, and essentially that most of the markets are hitting on all cylinders. And as you said, the data points that we expect to exceed 550 this year and even hit our $650 million revenue run rate by '22 means that we are continuing to sow those seeds and build strong business even out for the future. So, in terms of the segments, the mature process technology market remains extremely strong for us. There is strength in IoT, which drives general mature technology devices such as sensors. We have got image sensors. We have got power devices. And those are quite strong and even growing because of the recovery we are seeing in automotive. Memory is increasing and that is part of what is driving our confidence throughout the remainder of the year. But as I said, we expect the mature process technology segment to account for over 70% of our systems revenue in 2021. So, that's going to be the major driver of what we see going on. Although memory will be additive to that, and as it recovers, obviously will be another strong lever. So, we think the stars are all aligned in terms of the market segments, and because of the strong product portfolio that we have both in terms of the Purion products, the base product, plus the product line extensions, and the fact that we are exceeding the market with evaluations of six in the field plus additional going out in the future. We feel real confidence that things will continue to be strong throughout 2021. We haven't given guidance for the second half of the year. You just did the math in terms of what at a minimum would need to happen to exceed 550. So, at this point, I think we will leave it there. And as we move throughout the year and we get further clarity and data, we can share. We will certainly do that with you.

Doug Lawson, Executive Vice President of Corporate Marketing and Strategy

Great. This is Doug. Let me just add one other thing to it. So, Mary commented on the power market, there's a lot of discussion about the automotive chip shortage and so forth. One of the things that's interesting with our products is the Purion power for silicon carbide and silicon really targeted at a lot of the electric vehicle activity that's going on. And that's a little less caught up in the shortage. That's more of planning for the future. So I think that power device market is another key that allows us to drive towards the 650 and beyond.

Craig Ellis, Analyst

Yes, and certainly some positive comments within the last two weeks with some of the biggest chip manufacturers based in Europe that serve that market with that technology, so good point, Doug. Then if I could just ask a clarification before I hold back in the queue. Nice to see some licenses granted for export shipment to that Chinese customer. The question is this, to what extent were those granted relative to what you applied for? And to the extent that it was less than 100%, is there potential for further grants to move up to what we would hope to fully show?

Mary Puma, President and CEO

Yes, we have multiple licenses that are out there to cover all of the orders that we have across our Purion product line, and actually even more significantly, a number of our legacy systems at this point in time. So we did just start receiving some licenses. As we said in the second quarter, we are shipping those tools and the parts associated with them that were approved on those licenses. We are continuing to work with our outside trade council and with SEMI and the U.S. government to ensure that the rest of the licenses are granted. So, at this point in time, we think that the flow of those licenses has begun. And we're continuing to work to ensure that the rest of them are in fact granted on a timely basis.

Tom Diffely, Analyst

Yes, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. To follow-up on the last question, if you look at the really strong bookings in the quarter, is there a meaningful portion of those bookings that are going to also require export licenses going forward?

Mary Puma, President and CEO

So we did have a very strong bookings quarter out of China. But the thing that I want to continue to stress is that we have a very broad customer base in China. And that's comprised of both multi-national and domestic customers, although we've said that most of those customers and many of those customers are focused on the mature process technology markets. The customer SMIC that requires export licenses is only one of those many customers that we have. So we at this point in time, we really do not expect that there's any more significant risk to any of the systems that we're going to ship beyond what we already know associated with the SMIC license situation.

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Hi, Tom, it's Kevin. So, the variability, let me start with that, its used tools are very spotty. We actually had a lot of used tools in the quarter. So that'll move it around. We are coming off a couple of strong quarters. I think everybody remembers Q4 was very strong, but we did say there was a good amount of pre-buying going on and what we thought with some of our customers particularly in China, and we've always kind of framed this CS&I business, if this revenue level of about a $40 million a quarter by business? So, we're off to a strong start. We think Q2 is around $40 million. I think the back half of the year could be around $42 million. So it's up a little bit for us. So the variability really today has been, I think some pre-buying, a strong, a surge and used tools, probably just driven because systems in general, everybody's trying to get out of sense at this point. So, I'd certainly want to leave my models at $50 million, but I wouldn't be worried that we brought back into the low 40s. That's exactly where we expected to be based on a number of tools out there in the numbers, what we think is our entitlement that goes with those tools to spare parts and service.

Tom Diffely, Analyst

Okay, great. And then finally, Kevin, when you look at lead times for your tools. Have they changed meaningfully in the last few quarters? And are you having any supply issues yourself?

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, I know some of our peers have mentioned longer lead times. However, I believe we are doing well in meeting customer demands. While it is challenging to adjust our tools right now, our current lead times are not significantly different from our usual manufacturing timelines. Additionally, we are proactively managing long lead materials, which is a key factor in our process. Most materials have quick lead times, but we're staying ahead on the longer lead items. Therefore, I don't feel the need to signal any concerns regarding our ability to deliver to customers. Overall, our lead times are still in line with what we would typically expect.

Charles Shi, Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my question. This is Charles Shi on behalf of Quinn Bolton at Needham. So, maybe I want to follow-up on the question around licenses. I think I understand that the licensing requirement came in two rounds around SMIC, probably the first around targeting, I mean that includes some of your products under restriction around the September timeframe, but the second round actually put all of your shipments to SMIC, I mean, at least the system side under the licensing requirement. So, this initial approval of licenses, is that approval for the first few licenses, I mean, that you guys applied around the September timeframe last year or is that some of that actually come from that December applications?

Mary Puma, President and CEO

So, you're right. You explained the situation correctly. First, SMIC was put on the military end-user list in September, and then the entity list in December. We applied for licenses in September, and then we applied for licenses again in December for the remainder of our products that weren't covered the first time around. But I guess the only thing I can say is they do not seem to be coming out based on chronological order. It's not exactly clear how they are in fact doing the review and what they're putting priority on versus other things. So, at this point in time, the answer is not as clean as I think maybe we would have all anticipated. And as I said, the licenses are not being issued in as timely a fashion as we would have hoped, but again we are happy that some of them were issued, and we continue to drive to ensure that the rest of them are issued in a timely fashion.

Charles Shi, Analyst

Thanks a lot, Mary. May I follow-up on another question really around the CS&I, maybe this is a question for Kevin. So, Kevin, I understand that fourth quarter last year and first quarter this year CS&I is probably running ahead of your $550 million model target, which I think is about a $40 million per quarter, actually closer to your $650 million model. In the last quarter you did point out that one of the factors driving the unusually higher CS&I revenue is about the advance purchases even through stockpiling by maybe a few of your Chinese customers due to geopolitical tension. I understand that industry utilization is high, and also you pointed out with some of used tools strengths, but I wonder for your Q1 CS&I, whether some of that is still driven by some of the inventory hoarding behavior from some of your Chinese customers due to geopolitical reasons.

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. I would say there is still some pre-buying in Q1 for sure. However, we did notice strength coming in from almost all of our different regions as well. Q4 was primarily China-focused with a lot of pre-buying, but in Q1, we observed strong performance in Korea, Europe, and a recovery in the U.S. Some of these regions aren't experiencing pre-buying; instead, they have a significant ramp-up in activity and utilization. This seems to be quite normal. The levels we're seeing right now are primarily from Korea, Europe, and the U.S. Regarding China, I believe there is still some pre-buying occurring for understandable reasons, and it's likely not just us but everyone is a bit cautious there. Nevertheless, I expect things to settle down. We anticipate revenue dropping to around $40 million in Q2 and then $42 million towards the end, though it would be great to be pleasantly surprised with higher numbers. At this stage, it seems to have settled down.

Mary Puma, President and CEO

So Charles, you're right. We shipped mid last year, which would mean it should close mid this year. So, it's not quite mid this year yet. So that remains to be seen. And we will report on it as soon as it's closed. It's moving along per plan. Sometimes evaluations actually don't close exactly 12 months, to the exact date. And the reason for that typically is as we work with customers during these evaluation periods, we also work to qualify as many recipes as possible. And sometimes we get opportunities to actually work on recipes that weren't originally planned for these evaluations, which then takes more time. So I'm not necessarily commenting specifically on this evaluation. But I just wanted to make it clear that if it doesn't close exactly as to 12 months more, there are many reasons for that, and the evaluation will go on to be successful. In terms of the timing, this is actually the second Dragon that we have at this customer; the customer already has qualified the Dragon for NAND applications. So we feel very good about, we feel very good about our position with this customer given that this is the second Dragon and believe that as the cycle picks up, this customer will in fact purchase additional Dragons as they have capacity needs for high current. So at this point, we are not worried about missing any upswings in the market.

David Duley, Analyst

Yes, thanks for taking my question. I'm wondering if you hit the $550 million revenue target this calendar year, what would you say that that translates into market share in 2021 for the implant market?

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

David, it's hard to tell actually, this year, as you know, the market share denominator for the TAM for an implant isn't really reported very accurately. And so we're not trying to make a guess as to what exactly that TAM will be. We know we're increasing market share. We're having great success with Purion especially with the Purion extensions and especially in the segmented markets where we would consider that we have very high share. But it's difficult at this point to gauge the exact share. We do believe that the TAM is increasing right now, as we've said for the last couple of years, and it's above a $1 billion at this point. Exactly how far above, it's hard to estimate.

David Duley, Analyst

Okay. What are the key things that you need to accomplish to get to the $650 million market? I think in the past, it's been wins in Japan and wins in high-end foundry logic, is that still kind of the targeted areas or do you think you can get there by just having some of your other segments grow faster than initially expected?

Mary Puma, President and CEO

So I think we feel very good that we planted the seeds that we need already to get to $650 million. I mean, if in fact, we hit a run rate next year, that means that putting additional evaluations in the field at this point really isn't going to drive any significant volume above that in 2022 and perhaps even into 2023. Japan and Advanced Logic are obviously important segments, and we've made some progress in Japan, Dave, you know we shipped our first Purion XE there last year to the power device market, that power device market is very strong in Japan as is image sensors and neon. So, we're continuing to drive after that. And, in Advanced Logic, I've already mentioned that we have a Purion evaluation out there to customer where we think that can turn into some significant revenue, the timing on that is, we've got to complete the evaluation and sort of go from there. So, Japan and Advanced Logic are important segments, but they're not going to be the major segments that are driving $650 million at this point in time, given the timing and giving what we've seeded the market with, it really is going to be at the customers where we already are, where we're processed tool of record. And the customers know the tools, like the tools are running the tools in production. So, a lot of it will have to do, China again will still remain a very strong market for us. It's growing our Purion footprint and our existing customer base again, where we already have an installed base, and perhaps continue for example to expand the number and types of applications we're in that something that can be done more readily, will bring a whole new tool and for example, for evaluation. So, those are all the things that we're already doing that will contribute to the $650 million, which is why we think we have a pretty good line of sight into $650 million. And feel confident that as I said, those seeds have already been planted.

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, so Dave on the manufacturing capacity at this point, we're in the early stages of setting this up. And as the year goes on, I think we'll provide some additional details about what it is, we're doing and any potential impact. I guess the only thing I would say is that, the long-term impact should be positive. I think we're moving to, there's opportunities to improve gross margins on this, as you point out there is always near-term getting things set up and framing and things, but I think positive takeaways at longer-term, this should be something that helps the company's gross margin point of view, which helps the overall P&L.

Mary Puma, President and CEO

Okay, and from a competitive standpoint, competition remains quite strong. We're facing our largest competitor, really at every account we go to, although I will say in terms of some of the specific segments, in mature process technology, for example, like image sensor, in power devices, where we have a leadership position, it makes it more difficult for them to participate, given the strength of the Purion product offerings that we have in those areas. But other than that, it's just obviously there are always pricing pressures, there's the bundle that they try to throw at the customers. But in general, because we are processed tool of record in most of the places right now, where there is some significant spending. Well, and again, I'm just going to clarify that again probably not in Japan and probably not in advanced logic, but in all those other areas where we have strong conditioning, we've been able to really ward them off.

Mark Miller, Analyst

Congratulations on your quarter and thank you for the question. There are at least four major fabs, three planning, the U.S. coming up starting next year. I'm just wondering in terms of your projection for the 650 run rate, are these primary components of the 650 or are these are coming from more existing fabs?

Mary Puma, President and CEO

No, we're all excited about the new fabs that are going to be constructed. In the U.S. it's great for the U.S. It's great for the jobs. Great for the industry, but right now, those are not accounted for in any of our $650 million model revenues. As I said, previously, we've already got the seeds planted for the 650 model. So as we evaluate those opportunities that would be something that would figure into the model that we are working on right now that goes beyond 650 with an implant-only focus.

Mark Miller, Analyst

Do you see these fabs contributing to orders next year for you?

Mary Puma, President and CEO

I don't have complete clarity on the timing for all of these developments. Next year, we will continue to pursue our $650 million model. If we receive orders from some of those fabs, that would be an increase compared to our current plans. However, we are focused on making sure we have the appropriate resources and infrastructure in place, and we are taking the necessary steps now to ensure we can take advantage of those opportunities.

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes.

Craig Ellis, Analyst

Yes. Thanks for taking the follow-up questions. And Kevin, I didn't mean to ignore you in the initial round. So I'm coming back with you. So the first question you mentioned that OpEx in the second quarter would be flat as a percent of sales, but on higher sales that's higher dollar. So, is that performance based increases, bonus accruals just said, sales commissions, or are there just projects that are queuing up in R&D that would drive the sequential increase or other things?

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

The answer, yes. You got it. It's across the board. It is the variable compensation basis. It is the on the pieces, and they'll help you out with full year models, $38 million is probably a good number for the years. And if you look at where our 550 model is, it's 25% approximately of revenue at maybe the revenues a little bit better than that. I think $38 million certainly is not a bad place to be using for the remainder of the year. Yes, so we're buying to attend the plans, Craig. So, I don't think that grid is in place, and we're going to execute that. So the things that we've talked about for whether it be inventory or adding capacity, I mean, that's not going to impact what we're doing with share repurchase program, we have very strong balance sheet, as you know, we have plenty of cash to execute both the investments needed in the business and grow the business and return capital back to shareholders. It's something we really want to do this year, when we put this program in place I think we put a very sizable program in place, especially for Axcelis. So we're very committed to continuing that. And again, we have a grid that we're executing.

Tyler Burmeister, Analyst

Hey, this is Tyler on behalf of Christian. Thanks for letting me ask a question. So I was just wondering maybe a little bit bigger picture, you guys said your mix of mature foundry memory is expected to be 70:30 this year, and you have evaluation tools for both out in the field. So, next year and in the future, as we move towards a 650 model, should we expect both those segments to continue to grow? And maybe a mix, they kind of similar to these levels or over time, would you expect that mix maybe to move back closer to 50:50 mix? Any color there would be great.

Mary Puma, President and CEO

Tyler, the mix is really going to be a function of which customers in which segments are spending. But as we said, we think that this is a multi-year cycle, we expect the mature process technology customers to continue to spend, we expect memory to recover and increase throughout the year, and we may see more memory spending as a percentage of our total revenues based on again spending a specific customer. So, it's possible that it could shift a bit more towards back towards memory. But we expect really mature process to continue to be strong. I mean, if we take a look at where we were last year, the mix was pretty similar. We had 29% memory last year, and this year, we're saying maybe around 30%. So, it could be the same but I think we just have to wait it out and see exactly what happens as we move into 2022.

Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO

Thank you.

Mary Puma, President and CEO

Thank you, Chelsea. So I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today. We hope to talk with you virtually at upcoming investor events. In June, we'll be participating in the Craig-Hallum 18th Annual Institutional Investor Conference, the Cowen 49th Annual Technology Media & Telecom Conference, The Stifel 2021 Cross Sector Insight Conference, and the 13th Annual CEO Summit. I'd like to thank you for your continued support and stay well.

Operator, Operator

This concludes the presentation. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect. Good day.