Earnings Call Transcript - ADM Q3 2022

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on a listen-only mode to prevent background noise. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Britt, you may begin.

Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, Alex. Good morning, and welcome to ADM’s third quarter earnings webcast. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today’s webcast will be available at adm.com. Please turn to slide 2, the Company’s safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments and materials constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events. On today’s webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and how we’re continuing to advance our strategy. Our Chief Financial Officer, Vikram Luthar, will review the drivers of our performance as well as corporate results and financial highlights. Then Juan will make some final comments, and he and Vikram will take your questions. Please turn to slide 3. I’ll now turn the call over to Juan.

Juan Luciano, CEO

Thank you, Megan. This morning, we reported a strong third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.86. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1.6 billion. Our trailing four-quarter adjusted EBITDA approached $6.6 billion, and our trailing four-quarter average adjusted ROIC was 13%. Throughout the quarter, our 40,000 colleagues around the globe continued to deliver on our purpose by supporting the global food system and providing needed nutrition to billions. Global demand for our products remained robust, and our ability to meet customer needs demonstrated our team’s expertise in managing dynamic market conditions as well as the unique benefits of our integrated global value chain and product portfolio. We continue to generate strong cash flows, which support the continued advancement of our strategy, including investments in new capabilities and growth engines across our three businesses and the return of capital to our shareholders. Next slide, please. Even as the team demonstrated superb day-to-day execution in the third quarter, we continued to make great progress on driving our strategic growth priorities. In each of our business segments, we’ve created and are continuing to build new growth engines that are aligned with enduring global trends. As demand for more sustainably produced low carbon intensity products continues to drive growth across our portfolio, our AS&O team signed a groundbreaking long-term strategic agreement with PepsiCo to enroll up to 2 million regenerative agricultural acres over the next 7.5 years. I’ll be talking more about our regenerative agricultural efforts in a moment. Sustainability from demand for sustainable packaging into the ongoing energy transformation supported by policies like the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. is also driving the evolution of our Carbohydrate Solutions business. In the third quarter, for example, we formally signed two joint ventures with LG Chem for U.S. production of lactic acid and polylactic acid for a variety of applications, including bioplastics. Both sustainability and food security are powering our growth in nutrition, including our continued investment in alternative proteins. In Q3, we advanced several alternative protein enhancements and expansions, including an agreement with Benson Hill for the exclusive rights to process and commercialize a portfolio of proprietary ingredients derived from their ultra-high protein soybeans. Each of these investments is aligned with global trends and each demonstrates how we are advancing new avenues of growth across all three of our business segments. Slide 5, please. Our strategic work remains focused on two pillars: productivity and innovation. As we discussed at our Global Investor Day last December, we are targeting $1.1 billion in benefits from our productivity efforts, which improve our long-term returns profile while helping us mitigate the impact of market forces, including inflation. Strong returns mean focusing on both the numerator and the denominator. That is why around the globe, our team is continuing to identify opportunities to monetize assets and optimize working capital as part of our $1 billion challenge. As of last week, we had realized cash generation in excess of $1 billion from this initiative. On the numerator side, we’re investing in new technologies to enhance our efficiencies. Last quarter, I highlighted the operational transformation of our core facility in Marshall, Minnesota, and discussed how we hope to emulate that success more widely across our production footprint. We are now advancing an ambitious plan to install enhanced automation, more sophisticated control systems, and the increased use of analytics in more than 50 production facilities globally with further expansion possible as we evaluate and size the opportunities. These investments will enable us to unlock capacity, improve reliability, and enhance safety. We are currently evaluating partners to support us in this important work, which we intend to execute in a phased approach, focusing on 8 to 10 facilities per year. We anticipate investing more than $1 billion over this period, and we expect double-digit returns on this investment as we are seeing in Marshall. We’ll be updating you on our progress towards these goals and other productivity efforts on upcoming calls. Next slide, please. Turning to innovation. Sustainability is a driving force of both our purpose and our growth strategy. And one great example is the scaling up of our regenerative agricultural efforts. Regenerative agricultural practices include cover cropping, improved nutrient management, and conservation tillage. The environmental and climate benefits associated with regenerative agriculture can include greenhouse gas emissions reductions, increased soil carbon sequestration, water quality improvements, and biodiversity promotion. With global scale and a value chain that reaches from 220,000 farmers to customers ranging from multinational CPGs to start-ups, ADM has a unique opportunity to lead in this area. I already mentioned our strategic partnership with PepsiCo, which we believe is truly groundbreaking in its scope and long-term vision. We’re working with other partners as well. For example, in the spring, we announced an agreement with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation that includes a commitment of $20 million to sign up more regenerative agriculture acres. And we’re partnering with Farmers Business Network to make their gradable farm management platform available as a regenerative agriculture technology enabler for our North American farmer base. We’ve signed about 750,000 unique regenerative agriculture acres in the U.S. so far this year. We expect this number to grow with every passing year. These programs are getting us closer to farmers and closer to our customers. And we anticipate that within the next five years, our annual operating profit impact from this work will reach more than $100 million while continuing to help lead our industry to a more responsible, sustainable future. While we are on the subject of sustainability, I’m very proud that some of the good work we’ve done in this arena is being recognized. Just yesterday, ADM was included on the Investor’s Business Daily annual list of 100 Best ESG Companies. And in July, Environment and Energy Leader magazine recognized our Illinois-based indicator carbon capture and storage partnership as a top project for energy and environmental management. We posted a new update on our website that details our progress in advancing our Strive 35 goals, including our commitment to reduce our Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2035. And because Strive 35 isn’t the end of our sustainability journey, that update includes our aspiration to work towards net zero emissions by 2050. We’ll have more to say about this as we continue to evaluate and develop our path forward. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Vikram to talk about our business performance. Vikram?

Vikram Luthar, CFO

Thanks, Juan. Slide 7, please. The Ag Services and Oilseeds team delivered substantially higher year-over-year results. Ag Services results were significantly higher than the third quarter of 2021. The short crops in South America supported U.S. exports, driving improved volumes and margins in North American origination, which had significant negative impacts from Hurricane Ida in the prior year. Better margins in global ocean freight, driven by good execution amid dynamic global trade flows, powered better results in global trade. South American origination saw improved volumes and margins driven by increased farmer selling in addition to higher volumes through our export facilities. Crushing results were significantly higher with margins driven by resilient global demand for both meal and oil. Strong rapeseed margins in EMEA, driven by robust oil demand and continued market dislocations along with positive impacts from an insurance settlement helped drive improved results. North American soy crush margins continued to benefit from renewable diesel demand. Also, net positive timing effects in the quarter were about $175 million as compared to the approximately $70 million in the prior year quarter. Positive results were partially offset by lower crush volumes, including impacts from idle facilities in Ukraine and Paraguay. Refined products and other results were higher year-over-year in a strong margin environment for both refined oil and biodiesel. Robust performance in global refined oils was driven by healthy demand and elevated refined oil margins amid supply chain disruptions. Equity earnings from Wilmar were much higher versus the third quarter of 2021. Looking ahead to Q4, we expect AS&O to deliver much better results in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect continued strength in crush margins to more than offset the adverse impact of low water conditions on U.S. export volumes. Slide 8, please. The Carbohydrate Solutions team delivered significantly higher results versus the prior year quarter. The Starches and Sweeteners subsegment, which includes ethanol production from our wet mills, delivered much improved year-over-year results amid steady global demand for sweeteners and starches. Corn co-products, including continued robust demand for corn oil as well as effective risk management drove higher execution margins in North America. Wheat milling had a strong performance, delivering improved volumes and margins to meet healthy demand for flour. In EMEA, the business delivered solid volumes and margins and managed through a dynamic energy environment to drive stronger results. Our BioSolutions platform continued its upward trajectory with 29% year-over-year revenue growth year-to-date. Vantage Corn Processors results were substantially lower. Ethanol margins were pressured by higher industry inventories, lower domestic demand, and elevated corn costs. In addition, the prior year’s results included contributions from the now-sold Peoria facility. Looking ahead, we expect the fourth quarter of this year for Carbohydrate Solutions to be significantly lower than the fourth quarter of last year. Demand and margins for sweeteners, starches, and flour should remain healthy, but ethanol margins are expected to be substantially lower than last year’s historic highs. On slide 9, the Nutrition business continued to outpace the industry with Q3 revenue growth of 10% on a reported basis and 16% on a constant currency basis. Third-quarter adjusted operating profit was similar to last year and 7% higher on a constant currency basis. Profit was impacted in the quarter by the significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar and demand fulfillment challenges as the rapid growth in customer demand exceeded our operational capacity. We are prioritizing unlocking capacity in the face of some persistent supply chain bottlenecks. Our year-to-date performance remains very strong, including 20% revenue and 19% OP growth on a constant currency basis. And our portfolio of acquisitions from 2021 continues to deliver OP above our acquisition models. In this quarter, Human Nutrition results were higher than the third quarter of 2021. We had strong demand for plant-based proteins, as well as solid performance in texturants drove continued growth in specialty ingredients. Flavors results were impacted by adverse currency translation effects in EMEA, partially offset by continued strong demand growth in the region. Demand fulfillment challenges in North America and lower demand in APAC, driven partly by the lockdowns in China also negatively impacted results. Health and Wellness was lower versus the prior year, which included higher income from the fiber fermentation agreement. Animal Nutrition results were down versus the prior year quarter. Pet results were lower in Latin America on lower volumes, partially offset by strong volumes and margins in North America. Softer animal protein demand affected feed volumes. Looking ahead, we expect the fourth quarter for Nutrition this year to be higher than the fourth quarter of 2021 with continued strong demand in human nutrition more than offsetting adverse currency effects. We expect Nutrition’s full-year OP growth to be between 15% and 20% on a constant currency basis. Slide 10, please. Other business results increased from the prior year quarter. Higher short-term interest rates drove improved earnings in ADM Investor Services, partially offset by increased claim settlements in captive insurance. In the corporate lines, unallocated corporate costs of $251 million were higher year-over-year due primarily to performance-related compensation accruals, higher IT operating and project-related costs, and higher costs in the Company’s centers of excellence. Other Corporate was favorable versus the prior year, primarily due to higher results from foreign currency-related hedge activity. Net interest expense for the quarter increased year-over-year on higher interest rates. The effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2022 was approximately 16%. We still project full-year corporate costs to be about $1.3 billion, and we still expect our adjusted tax rate to remain in the range of 16% to 19%. Next slide, please. Year-to-date, operating cash flows, before working capital of $4.7 billion, are up significantly versus $3.1 billion over the same period last year. Our net debt to total capital ratio is about 24%, and we have available liquidity of about $11.2 billion. We are continuing to invest in the business with $841 million in capital expenditures and have returned capital to shareholders with $677 million in dividends and $1.2 billion in share repurchases through the third quarter, which reflects the completion of the $1 billion stock buyback announced last quarter. And with enhanced financial flexibility and in line with our balanced capital allocation framework, we plan to repurchase an additional $1 billion of shares by the end of 2023, subject to other strategic uses of capital. Juan?

Juan Luciano, CEO

Thank you, Vikram. Slide 12, please. So to recap, our team delivered another outstanding quarter. And thanks to our execution and the advancement of our strategy, we are well positioned to end 2022 strong. Last quarter, we said we were expecting full-year earnings higher than $6.50 per share. Based on where we are today, we now clearly expect to exceed $7 per share. Looking ahead, there are several externalities that we are monitoring going into 2023. We anticipate ongoing resilient demand for our products, a strong crush margin environment, a positive outlook for starches and sweeteners, and a continuation of our growth trajectory in Nutrition. There is also significant uncertainty in the global economy and geopolitical environment. We expect to carry our strong momentum into the first quarter of 2022, and beyond that, we are confident that our scenario planning and execution will give us the ability to effectively manage through a dynamic environment. We’re also going to continue to benefit from our strategic work, and we’ll continue to deliver on those priorities throughout 2023. We’ll advance productivity initiatives to improve operations and processes, optimize costs and enhance efficiencies. We’ll drive innovation, expanding and creating new growth engines across our entire business portfolio, Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. And we’ll advance those strategic objectives as we always have, alongside our team’s exceptional day-to-day execution, delivering for our colleagues, consumers, customers, and stakeholders. With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our first question for today comes from Ben Bienvenu from Stephens Inc.

Ben Bienvenu, Analyst

I want to ask about your process volumes in the quarter. You cited lower crush volume utilization in Ukraine as well as Paraguay. Could you talk a little bit about what you expect your go-forward process volumes to look like? And is the lion’s share of the decline in oilseeds processed year-over-year, that 10% decline, is that from those two regions? Were there any other contributing factors?

Juan Luciano, CEO

Yes. Thank you, Ben. Yes, as you noted, we had lower volumes, and part of that was coming from Europe in soy and rapeseed. We had some adverse weather and some logistical constraints in Europe in terms of navigation, with some of the rivers. We also have a reduction in South America, in soy crush because of Paraguay shutdown, mostly due to a lack of beans. We have also seen reductions in North America due to canola seed availability. And certainly, we have our Ukraine sunflower crush facility down since last March. So we have 850 facilities around the world, as you know. And we deal with logistics, adverse weather, and manpower issues like every company out there. So that contributed to the decline in volumes at this point in time. As some of those one-off issues subside, I mean, we will see those volumes coming back to normal rates.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays.

Ben Theurer, Analyst

Juan, Vikram, congrats on the results. I wanted to follow up on Nutrition. As you’ve talked about some of the logistics bottlenecks that you plan to overcome, could you elaborate a little more in detail on what those issues are and what you may have to do in terms of investments to get this right? And then also aligned with that, what is actually your kind of FX assumption because you stretched the constant currency terms commentary on the outlook for the fourth quarter. So, just to understand a little bit the regional breakdown as well and what FX headwinds we should expect into the short-term period, just given the euro weakness. Thank you.

Juan Luciano, CEO

Thank you, Ben. As Vikram noted in his comments, we are extremely proud of how our team is driving demand and how our Nutrition value proposition continues to resonate with customers. Our pipeline is larger than ever, and our growth and winning rates are exceptional. However, this rapid growth quickly impacts our production capabilities. While we plan to expand, some supply chain challenges related to delivery equipment have not always worked in our favor. The most significant impacts from these issues have been in flavors, primarily in North America and to some extent in Europe. Additionally, our Pinghu facility in China has faced volume challenges due to COVID-related lockdowns. Consequently, we haven't been able to fully translate our generated demand into financial results. Fortunately, many of these issues are now becoming more manageable, and our team is working diligently to increase capacity. A few quarters ago, we acquired FISA to help with this, and we are also utilizing contract manufacturing. However, in a tight market where consumer demand is shifting, our ability to respond quickly has been challenged by the high growth rates this quarter. There is significant capacity planned for next year, presenting an upside opportunity. We aim to meet demand next year and have expansions underway, including a new soy protein line, the Biopolis expansion in Valencia, and the upcoming PetDine expansion. Our business has a strong plan for organic growth capacity to support us next year, but our success in sales and marketing has certainly driven this strong demand.

Vikram Luthar, CFO

Yes. And Ben, on the FX side, just a reminder for everyone. In 2020, we grew operating profit 37%, and in 2021, nutrition profit was up 20%. If you look at the FX over that two-year period, it was almost flat, went up one year, went down the other year. But the European part of our business, EMEA, and we referenced this in our Global Investor Day, the revenue contribution from Europe is about 40% of the Human Nutrition side and about 20% on the Animal Nutrition side, and that’s getting bigger because of the event. So consequently, given the profitability there and the significant move in the dollar this year, we thought it was appropriate to highlight the growth on a like-for-like basis, which basically means on a constant currency basis. So, it’s a significant strengthening of the dollar. That basically called this out and the underlying growth in the European region.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

Juan Luciano, CEO

Alex, maybe we skip to the next question. Maybe, Alan, come back later.

Operator, Operator

We will move on. Our next question comes from Tom Palmer of JP Morgan.

Tom Palmer, Analyst

I wanted to ask about the barge delays on the Mississippi River. Does this have much effect on your business as we look towards the fourth quarter? If there is an impact, should we mainly think about it being in Ag Services, or just given the diversity of your business, are there offsets to consider?

Juan Luciano, CEO

Yes. Of course, we have an unprecedented situation, and especially in the Lower Mississippi River that will reduce the volume of exports for Ag Services North America. As it’s going to be a negative impact in Ag Services North America, of course, part of that is because of soy, and we’re going to lose that volume. In the corn side, we’re probably going to extend the window of exports from North America into the first quarter. So part of the offset is you’re going to see that in the first quarter. I think also part of the offset is South America will be able to export more. We are a large exporter in South America, of course, and you’re going to see that. And then normally, what we noticed or we expect to happen, because we’ve seen it before, is when you export less from North America, where destination marketing sometimes get a little bit of a pop in margins, the products and destination become naturally more valuable, if you will. That was part of the original strategy of going into destination marketing. And then, the other impact is that as beans are not exported, that matters not that much demand, local values come down, local bases come down, and that may be a boost for crush that you may be able to crush lower-priced beans or maybe eventually lower-priced corn for Carbohydrate Solutions. So, we see some puts and takes. So probably negative for North America Ag Services and Oilseeds, maybe neutral for Ag Services and positive overall maybe for the whole.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow from Bank of Montreal.

Ken Zaslow, Analyst

Just a couple of questions. One is, can you give a little bit more color on Ag Services and Oilseeds outlook as well as carb guidance? I know you said significantly up and significantly lower, some parameters to that? And then, can you also talk about your nutrition outlook? If your supply chain gets repaired, demand is there, do you think that your long-term growth algorithm is intact? And I’ll leave it there, and I appreciate your time, as always.

Juan Luciano, CEO

Thank you, Ken. Yes, let me address maybe the outlook of Ag Services and Oilseeds, Q4. So, first of all, a very dynamic environment, but very positive environment. The teams continue to manage exceptionally well. And demand continues to be very robust. So, as we go forward, Q4 again in Ag Services, I was mentioning, maybe a little bit lower for North American exports, but that will be offset by other things that I explained in the question before. So, we still expect significantly better results in Q4, barring any big mark-to-market, that’s our expectation at this point in time. Crush margins continue to strengthen. That’s on the strength of feeding animals around the world, but also on the extra demand for oil from all the renewable green diesel or biodiesel around the world. We expect continued strength in global trade and destination market. And as I explained before, I would say the three parts of the business will be very robust into bigger than last year, certainly. Maybe Vikram can give a little bit of an update on the other two.

Vikram Luthar, CFO

Yes. So on Carbohydrate Solutions, you’re right, we did say significantly lower. But if you look at the two independent parts, S&S, sweeteners and starches, we continue to expect that to be strong. We’re seeing robust volumes and margins with obviously, the corn oil benefits we are seeing. So net corn costs are attractive, as well as margins continue to be attractive. The issue is on ethanol. Lastly, if you remember, we actually had $1-plus ethanol margins. This year, we clearly do not anticipate margins to be that high. We still expect to be healthy given continued strong gasoline demand, the discount that ethanol has versus RBOB, as well as the reasonable inventory levels. So, it’s really the ethanol side that is going to drive the significantly lower performance in Carbohydrate Solutions Q4 to Q4. On the nutrition side, yes, as Juan said, we are working and prioritizing unlocking capacity. We anticipate much of that to get unlocked over the course of 2023. And on a constant currency basis, we continue to expect growth going forward to be in that 15-plus-percent range. It’s important to highlight constant currency because that part of the business in Europe, as I mentioned, is becoming bigger and bigger. And currency is not something we can control and important therefore for us to call that out.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Steven Haynes of Morgan Stanley.

Steven Haynes, Analyst

I just wanted to ask on the Brazil-China corn export agreement and see if you could get a little bit of color on any impact you think you’ll see in your businesses? And if you can just kind of remind us of how big your export origination footprint is in Brazil versus North America? Thank you.

Juan Luciano, CEO

Yes. Good morning. So first thing you need to understand is we are living in a very tight global corn environment. So, if you put yourself in the shoes of China, China finds itself with lower production, lower domestic production of corn with certainly higher feed demand and lower barley and sorghum imports. So naturally, it will have to import more corn. So in my mind, they are just building origin optionality. Again, you have still the La Niña effect in Argentina. So they are planting less corn there. Certainly, our last check up here, yields for corn in North America were going to be lower. And of course, there’s always the uncertainty of Ukraine's ability to export. So I think that from a Chinese perspective, this is nothing more than just risk management and expanding open up another optionality. Of course, we are a large exporter from South America as well. We have a very robust Ag Services business in Brazil. And I remind you, we are the largest exporter of corn from Argentina. So, as always, we will offer Black Sea, we will offer North America, we will offer Brazil, and we will offer Argentine origins to China. So, as long as demand remains tight, we will see a lot of activity within the trade flow because naturally people want optionality.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rob Dickerson of Jefferies.

Rob Dickerson, Analyst

I guess, just first question, kind of a broad question. There are a number of times you said in the commentary upfront that should be ongoing momentum kind of going into 2023, and it sounds like more specifically kind of in Q1. If we think about just kind of the general macro backdrop, right, all the tailwinds that are benefiting the business, and maybe this is a little dumbed down for some, but not for me. Maybe you could just kind of touch on what could be some drivers that could loosen the overall tightness in the supply chain as we get through next year? Then I have a follow-up.

Juan Luciano, CEO

We are concluding a very strong 2022, which sets us up well for 2023 with good momentum. We expect continued robust demand for our products, and apart from a few small areas in Animal Nutrition, we have not observed a decline in demand across ADM at this time. We also anticipate a favorable environment for crush margins, supported by strong global demand for pork and poultry, alongside tight soybean oil supplies and increasing demand for RGD and biodiesel. As previously mentioned by Vikram, we have a positive outlook for starches and sweeteners, as we have completed some contracting and expect our volumes and margins to hold steady or increase slightly. We foresee continued growth in our Nutrition segment, which provides us significant visibility into future projects that we expect to translate into profits, barring any supply chain issues. Despite facing various challenges such as weather and logistics, which have impacted manufacturing volumes, we believe these issues will be resolved and potentially benefit us next year. Additionally, we are adding new capacity, including a fivefold increase in Biopolis probiotics production, a new line for plant-based soybean protein, and expanded PetDine capacity. Overall, while recognizing the uncertainties in the market, we see very strong momentum as we head into 2023.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Steve Byrne of Bank of America.

Steve Byrne, Analyst

Yes. Thank you. I’d like to better understand this regenerative ag outlook you have for $100 million of operating profit in five years. Would it be reasonable to assume that that’s roughly 10 million acres of $10 an acre operating profit? Is that kind of where you’re thinking? And maybe more broadly, do you see the value here more on generating grain that has been produced in some kind of sustainable way i.e., that a CPG customer of yours would be willing to pay a premium for that grain? Or do you see this as really the generation of carbon credits that could be sold on various exchanges? I welcome your thoughts on that.

Juan Luciano, CEO

Certainly. Thank you for the question. This is very important to us and closely linked to our strategy. The demand for regenerative agriculture programs and acres is indeed high. We've made a public announcement about it, but we've actually been working on what we refer to as the differentiated bushel for about three or four years now. ADM occupies a unique position in the value chain with the global reach necessary to enhance agricultural practices, connecting farmers with consumer packaged goods companies. This gives us a strategic advantage. We're focused on streamlining the process for farmers. As you mentioned, there are multiple ways to create value here. Regarding the differentiated bushel, we anticipate that there will be a premium for bushels or metric tons cultivated in a specific manner, which society increasingly expects from agriculture to contribute to a more sustainable world. Additionally, we are collaborating with FBN, Gradable, and government bodies to simplify data collection and develop protocols for carbon offsets or carbon credits. The economics are not as straightforward as $10 per ton, yet they are not overly complicated either. We have an array of accounts and contracts that vary slightly, but conceptually align with the objective of converting and signing more acres. We leverage our relationships with a global farmer network of 220,000 that we are actively engaging in these discussions. Farmers will adopt these practices more as demand increases, which is why aligning with CPG companies is crucial. Therefore, both sides must grow in tandem. We are excited about the prospects as we utilize our extensive farmer network and the demand from CPG companies and consumers for bushels or metric tons produced in a differentiated manner.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Eric Larson of Seaport Research Partners.

Eric Larson, Analyst

Congratulations on a good quarter, everyone. I appreciate all your insightful comments, Juan; they are very meaningful to us. I'm eager to continue our discussions on this topic. My question this morning is if you could provide more detail on the situation in Ukraine? What are you observing? We’ve heard that they can only plant enough winter wheat this year to meet their own domestic needs for the next year. It seems like Ukraine might become an even smaller contributor to global exports of oil and grains next year. It’s difficult to piece together all the information. Could you share your thoughts on the developments in that region?

Juan Luciano, CEO

Thank you, Eric. I want to highlight the message we sent to our employees in Ukraine, encouraging strength. ADM is doing everything possible to make their lives more bearable during these challenging times. Hopefully, we will one day discuss the rebuilding of Ukraine and all of them returning home. We have more than 650 employees there and are deeply involved in their situation. A majority are currently in their roles. We've been able to export from Ukraine, and the industry, along with governments, has collaborated to reach export levels close to what Ukraine achieved last year, about 7 million tons in September. However, October has presented some challenges. The joint inspection group for vessels is overwhelmed by the number of ships waiting, so they're increasing staffing to keep things moving. We have around 100 vessels queued that need to be processed as storage in Ukraine is filling up. With the upcoming harvest, we need that space to store new material. The situation remains dynamic, with occasional shelling affecting some storage facilities. Amidst this, Ukraine is attempting to plant, but estimating crop amounts is complicated. We believe there may be a 30% reduction in planting, but it's hard to be certain due to some regions being under Russian control, making data collection challenging. On the wheat front, Australia is experiencing a good harvest thanks to increased rainfall. We hope the rain subsides soon for a successful harvest. India has also indicated it has surplus inventories that could support global markets. The corn situation is more complex, with strong demand existing and tight inventories not seen in seven years. In Argentina, only about 10% of the corn has been planted due to severe drought, which means the U.S. will likely be a major supplier of corn globally. Regarding sun oil, the market is adjusting with different oil blends, but tight conditions persist due to factors like renewable diesel and biodiesel demand. Wheat appears to be in a slightly better position, while corn and sun oil may face difficulties, especially if the corridor is halted. We are hopeful that the corridor will be extended on November 19, and while there may be minor objections, nothing major seems likely to disrupt this plan. We anticipate the corridor will continue to operate, ideally with improved efficiency as more inspectors are appointed.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse.

Robert Moskow, Analyst

I was hoping you could provide more insight into the strong performance in Ag Services this quarter. This appears to be the best third quarter I’ve seen from ADM in many years, which is surprising given the issues on the Mississippi River. Of the factors you mentioned, such as the short crop in South America and improved margins in ocean freight, could you elaborate on which were the main contributors to this outperformance? Additionally, was there any advantage from your grain hedging strategies this quarter?

Juan Luciano, CEO

Yes. So, it was a great performance, as you described, very proud of the team. Traditionally, our Q3s have lower volumes because we are getting out of the end of the season and waiting for the next harvest. What happened this time is I think given the short South American crop, we’ve been able to move more volumes, especially exports in North America. Exports were down Q3 to Q2, but not down as much as maybe you see in other years. The same has been a little bit for origination volumes. And when exports go, we have benefits in our transportation businesses, our barges and all that. Also, do not forget, it’s not just North America, but it’s also the global nature. The global trades have done a spectacular performance. And I think we have benefits in ocean freight. It was a very good quarter from that perspective, and also in destination market. In destination market that we started four or five years ago, I don’t remember exactly, has continued to grow volumes and expanding margins. So that, I would say, is what created this great Ag Services in Q3. So, great performance by the team.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our final question is from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson, Analyst

A lot has been discussed today. I would like to focus on capital allocation related to the balance sheet. First, could you clarify the repurchase details? You executed a substantial amount of buybacks in the third quarter, and the additional $1 billion is planned over the next five quarters. Is that correct? Additionally, Juan and Vikram, can you provide some insight into capital expenditures as we move into 2023? You have several capacity initiatives in progress, so it would be helpful to understand your internal investment strategy. Also, could you share your thoughts on potential M&A opportunities in the current market, particularly given the rising interest rates that may increase working capital pressures on smaller companies? Thank you.

Vikram Luthar, CFO

Yes, Adam, thank you for the question. Regarding the share buybacks, we have indeed executed the entire $1 billion stock buyback that we announced in Q2. Moving forward, the additional buyback is expected to be carried out over the next five quarters through the end of 2023. I also want to emphasize that we see a strong pipeline of opportunities, particularly in mergers and acquisitions. It is our ongoing responsibility to evaluate these opportunities, and if we discover the right acquisition with the necessary capabilities at an appropriate price, we would certainly allocate potential capital to that instead of buybacks. However, if we do not find such an opportunity, we plan to complete the buybacks by the end of 2023. Regarding capital expenditures, we had indicated around $1.3 billion for this year, and we are on track to reach that amount, possibly slightly under. We expect to maintain a similar level of spending in the next few years due to the significant need for increased capacity, as Juan mentioned, along with some high-return projects on the horizon, including the analytics and digital automation of our facilities. We see considerable opportunities to reinvest in the business, as well as the potential for more M&A activity. Another key point to highlight, which emphasizes our commitment to driving returns, is that we are not only focused on profitability but also on the efficiency of our asset use. We are undertaking a $1 billion challenge to reduce the assets required to generate that profit. Despite this impressive performance this year, our teams are diligently working to minimize the assets deployed. As of last week, we actually had $1 billion in cash on hand, as noted by Juan. Thus, it is crucial to recognize our dedication to driving returns, which is reflected in the 13% return we are proud to have achieved in Q3. I will pause there.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We have no further questions for today. So, I’ll hand back to Megan Britt for any further remarks.

Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you for joining us today. Please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions. Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

Operator, Operator

Thank you for joining today’s call. You may now disconnect.