Conference Transcript - ALLE 2026-02-19

Speaker 4

Great. Well, thanks, everyone, for being here. It's my pleasure to have up next Allegiant. We have John Stone, President and CEO, and Josh Pokazwinski from Investor Relations. Welcome, both of you, and thanks very much for being here.

Speaker 2

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Maybe kind of first off, you know, you had your earnings sort of fairly recently. You know, I suppose help us understand kind of how you see the shape of the year playing out? Anything we should bear in mind kind of seasonality-wise? You know, we're expecting sort of first quarter year on year in terms of growth and margin to look pretty similar to the fourth quarter you just reported.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think that's fair. And as we mentioned, the guide that we're looking for is on the non-res side of our business. We see volume growth at a level rather commensurate with 2025. That's the largest part of our business. So certainly that's helpful. Then on the international side, we do see organic growth as well, a mix of price and volume. We talked about on the resi side of our business, the residential side, we're starting the year with a rather prudent view, and I think continued softness is what we would see there, and just we'll stay watchful for any catalyst that might change that. Your point on Q1 looking a little bit like Q4, I mean, that's rather typical for a Legion, I think, you see, and it's not surprising with the way construction works. Q2, Q3, usually very busy quarters, Q1, Q4, maybe a little lighter on that. And so I think that is a fair way to look at the year ahead. And I think continuing to drive organic growth and looking forward to a good year.

Speaker 4

And, you know, when you look at the non-residential business, there's a lot of different verticals there, you know, legions. better positioned or stronger weighting in the institutional side of things. How are those institutional markets playing out? There's been some noise in government activity last year for various reasons, education, the K-12 maybe had some stimulus help that's in the rearview mirror. How do you feel about the institutional outlook?

Speaker 2

Yeah, a few things going on there. I think the most important headline when you look at Allegiant's non-res business is our portfolio, our brands, our spec writing capability affords us broad in-market exposure. So we are a bit heavily weighted towards institutional. We're transparent on that. But no one single vertical is going to make or break a particular year. So, broadly speaking, we do see organic growth across non-res. I'd say, yes, certainly in 2025, higher education came under some federal government pressure. You can see budgets being pressured as a result. On the upside, though, you see municipal bond issuance still at very strong levels. And certainly, the last couple of years, muni-bond issuance has been strong. It obviously takes a while for that to become shovel-ready type projects, so that should have a bit of a tail. Then I'd say don't discount the importance and the size of our installed base in the institutional segment. And anyway, if our business is roughly half new build, half aftermarket, that aftermarket part of the business, because of that installed base, is quite stable. And so institutional in general doesn't have the volatility that some of the commercial verticals do. It's just a little more stable. And I don't see that changing dramatically. Exactly.

Speaker 4

And on that commercial side of things, you know, how's that playing out? It seems like office, you know, hit bottom, kind of what pace of recovery are we seeing there? What's happening in some of those other commercial markets in the U.S.?

Speaker 2

Yeah, absolutely. And I think the commercial verticals and office in particular, 22, 23 post-pandemic, tough time for them, right? vacancies were very high, et cetera. If you look at office today, you can see some bright spots here and there, Metro New York being one. Office demand, particularly in the Class A space, just recently hit a 20-year high. We'll see, do other major metro areas kind of follow suit? Is New York leading the way? I think that's yet to be seen. On the multifamily side, A lot of new build, 22, 23, you know, came online in 24, maybe early part of 25. So new build has been a little soft. And we have seen a bit of an uptick in different parts of the country on the multifamily side. So happy to see what we hope are some green shoots there.

Speaker 4

And residential, you know, it's been very sort of bumpy for you, I think. You know, it was pretty good from some product launches and then a soft end to the year. So how are you thinking about kind of what, you know, what changed, if anything, late last year? And, again, it seems very choppy. So has it kind of evened out again most recently since then? How should we think about that?

Speaker 2

I think, yeah, overall I would say we are going into 2026 assuming resi remains kind of soft. And it can get lumpy, certainly, and you do have to look. That's one reason why we don't guide quarters. It is lumpy. I would say if you also look at the channel dynamics, you know, selling through e-commerce and big box retail, Our channel doesn't hold a lot of inventory, so inventory correction-type things do happen, but they're always very short-lived. It's not something you would see a quote-unquote de-stocking happening for like 12 months. That wouldn't happen in our space. So I think lumpiness can certainly be there, and even if you recall Q4 of 24, So the year-on-year comp that we were up against this last Q4, we called out some rather large orders that we saw from our channel that looked a bit peculiar, and we attributed it to maybe there was some pre-buy in anticipation of tariffs. So that lumpiness, I think, can always be there in the resi space. And you saw lumpiness because of a new product launch in Q3. We're putting up, you know, mid-single growth at a time when Resi is soft. So that probably looked a little bizarre as well. But overall, just soft is the way I think about Res. And you just got to understand there can be some lumpiness here and there.

Speaker 4

And, you know, when you think about market share for Allegiant domestically, you know, I say the tariffs are still relatively recent, even though it doesn't feel like it to people in this room, I'm sure. But have you seen any shift in market share competitive behavior? You know, have any lower tier rivals been kind of squeezed out of the market by tariffs or has been pretty steady?

Speaker 2

Yeah, since our industry, we all sell through distribution. Market share to any degree of precision is quite elusive, I would say, to pinpoint. I would say over the last really three years, I'm very pleased with the organic growth that we've put up with respect to our largest competitor in the Americas. And I think still probably the trend could be that the two of us, the largest two in the space, have gained a little bit of share against some of the shortliners. But, again, it's very difficult to put pinpoint accurate numbers around share in our space.

Speaker 4

And, you know, I think on the sort of pricing and cost side of things, you know, reasonably high kind of metals buy-in for some of the mechanical locks, you know, how comfortable do you feel about the ability to pass on higher metals costs and sort of broader cost inflation to customers?

Speaker 2

I think on the non-res side of our business, we do enjoy pretty strong pricing power, disciplined industry structure. You've got safety-critical, life-saving products that are a very modest portion of the overall building cost. And the ability to spec your product in, the sales process is very consultative. on the proper standards that you need to meet code. And then you add all that together along with very strong brands, category-creating brands, in fact, end-user relationships that have lasted and endured decades, distribution relationships that have endured for decades. Add that together with the industry structure we have, and we do enjoy good pricing power there. It's never something that we would abuse. And that was why, as the tariffs did come in, obviously it takes some time to process that and understand what is the real impact to us and then communicate to our investors and to our customers, we do expect to pass on and cover the dollar value of that inflation. We never wanted to profiteer off of tariffs and just, again, would never abuse that pricing power. but price to the value that our products deliver. And we do look to price to cover inflation.

Speaker 4

And on the residential side, you know, how comfortable do you feel about that price cost element? I think the margins ending the year, there was some pressure in the Americas on Resi, but I'm not sure. Is that more volume-related, it seems?

Speaker 2

Volume-related, definitely, and certainly in the Resi space, given customer concentration and the dynamics there, The pricing power is less when compared to our non-res business. We did pass price due to tariffs that came through. I think still pushed pricing there. And I would say, yeah, the volume deleverage did have an impact in Q4, certainly.

Speaker 4

And when we look at operating margins this year, I think a lot of companies at this conference, you know, first half margins under pressure, tariffs a bit less volume growth, and second half people are assuming stronger volume growth, the anniversary, the tariff cost pressure, so margins kind of pick up year on year. Is that kind of similar to what we should expect from Allegiant in terms of like margins year on year, first half, second half?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I would think of it more as a really a targeted first quarter comment, Julian. So kind of on the back of what John was talking about in terms of the price recovery more on a dollar basis than a margin basis, you did see that tyranny of the math in the fourth quarter. That'll continue in the first quarter, might even be a little bit more acute. When we talked about that margin range being somewhere between where we finished in the fourth quarter in the Americas and where we were in the first quarter of 25, which, as you know, predated tariffs had some pretty good mix as well. But if you look at the totality of the year, I would say, you know, operating leverage consistent with what we would have said at Investor Day and kind of that longer term, you know, call it 50-ish basis points a year just has that, you know, that comp in the first quarter that you'll see a little bit of pressure on.

Speaker 4

And then if we're thinking about, you know, chip supply, you know, that was an issue for Allegiant and some bunch of other companies here just after COVID, I guess there was a lot of learnings from that. And so when we hear about possible chip constraints and higher chip prices today, do you feel pretty comfortable with that because of what Allegiant learned from the issues kind of four years ago?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think some of the things we learned were that IoT-type chips, right? These low-processing, low-memory-type chips are typically on different fabs than cell phones, data centers, these other chips that might be impacted by the device. So that was one lesson. We also modularized our embedded software, our firmware, if you will, so we can accommodate different microprocessors in our electronic components that, again, diversify your supply base a little bit. So I think we did learn important lessons and have taken good steps to mitigate the risk in the supply chain and at this point feel okay with what's contemplated for 2026.

Speaker 4

You know, obviously the chips are sort of feeding into the electronics, electromechanical parts of your portfolio. How are you feeling about organic growth for that part of it? And, you know, where did 2025 end up roughly with that share of the total Allegiant revenue coming from electronics?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think if you look at the K, we've got electronics, software, and services, not 33% of the total. And that's even while, you know, some acquisitions and organic growth on the mechanical side was still progressing very nicely. Really pleased with the electronics growth, double-digit growth in 2025, and, you know, we do anticipate that electronics continues to outgrow mechanical in our portfolio, and happy with the acquisitions that we've made in that space, too. Ella Tech being the largest acquisition with a global portfolio of readers and credentials, right in line with the business case that we were anticipating as we made the acquisition. So off to a very good start. We're happy about that. See a lot of reasons for that to continue.

Speaker 4

And when you look at that kind of software and services, you know, part of the business, you know, maybe help us understand kind of what a couple of areas there that you're most excited about, the growth that Allegiant's seeing right now in software and services. And, you know, do you think we'll see a pickup in M&A activity by Allegiant there, or it'll be fairly steady?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think hit that last point first. We do anticipate to continue to grow through acquisition profitably grow through acquisition I'm happy with what we've done the last two years you should not extrapolate a dollar value or a deal volume necessarily we're going to be disciplined there and make sure it's a strategic fit that helps our customers generates good returns for our shareholders etc and certainly electronics and complementary software as we shared in Investor Day, will be a part of that strategy. I think the way we see software in particular is it has to be related to and differentiating for our hardware. That's why we would look to extend into that. And what's going to happen, if I look at the evolution of electronic locking, a decade plus ago it was offline locks. that has kind of evolved into wired solutions with panels and door controllers and Wi-Fi gateways and things like this. Where that's moving is to connected locks. And the connected lock affords you the opportunity for 40% or 50% lower cost total install because you don't need some of those other electronic components like a gateway. the lock has more functionality and can be real-time connected, real-time visible can have over-the-ear updates for the credential library that gets you in and out of that door so lower cost install, presumably you save some labor time as well on that and then more functionality at the door and within the lock I think that then affords the opportunity for a company like Allegiant to make better use of the data that comes off of the lock that really isn't used today but can be in the future. And so something like a wait while that we acquired last year got their start with virtual queuing. If I can affix an encrypted credential to your position in the virtual queue, then you can get the most seamless and also simple and secure access to wherever you're going. And that's functionality that's not existing in our space today that I'm going to be excited to deliver soon. So think along those lines that software that interacts with and differentiates Allegiant hardware is where we would focus.

Speaker 4

And is there anything kind of interesting for you in the sort of subscriptions-type world, or not necessarily? You think sort of hardware and then software that can enable the hardware is where you'll stay focused?

Speaker 2

GateWise that we acquired, some organic development we've made for multifamily access control, WaitWile itself, those are recurring revenue models, small, but growing nicely. And I think we would stop short of giving you a particular quantified target of where we're aiming and just stay much more in line with we do see great opportunities to drive this next evolution of electronic locking to the real-time connected locks. I do feel we're leading there, and that's where we'll continue to push. Great.

Speaker 4

And then on the international business, you know, there was a lot of optimism, you know, when Allegiant spun out that there'd be a big, you know, wave of growth and M&A there. Habit in fits and starts, you know, you've been more active on that front. And, you know, I think help us understand kind of how you see revenue growth in international kind of organically, the profile. And when you're looking at M&A, you know, in theory, there's a huge range of assets you could just keep buying because your market share is so low. You know, what's the appetite to do that kind of roll up in international?

Speaker 2

Yeah, very pleased with the growth that we've delivered in international. and that's even coupled with some selective pruning. We have made a couple of divestitures in International just to improve the portfolio quality. And it was a bit a case of the International segment had to earn the right to grow, and I feel they've done that. A lot of self-help that has gone on. And some other interesting things that are happening is we now have, I think, between the Americas and international, some good cross-segment leverage. So the Americas has built up, as we've talked at Investor Day, modular designs that can be translated over to the international segment, and new electronic locking can be developed in a fraction of the time with a fraction of the engineering resources that it used to take, and we can get to market faster. On the international side, we last year introduced our first battery-less e-cylinder that does have global relevance, as well as we acquired electronic strikes with a company called Dorcas in Spain back in 2024 that also has global relevance, as do Elatech readers and credentials. So I think that will continue to evolve. We do have an active M&A pipeline in both the Americas and international. And so I'm excited to see continued profitable growth there with a much higher quality portfolio on the international side of our business.

Speaker 4

And when you think about kind of margins versus getting that top line higher in international, you know, you'd say both are important. But, you know, it may be hard to grow the top line much through M&A. you know if you're very strict on the margin criteria of what to buy so kind of maybe help us understand you know how you see that playing out and you know should we expect kind of more you know dollars of EBIT growth in international rather than necessarily trying to get margins into the 20s or something yeah I'm expecting you see some of both I'm expecting you see profitable growth overall.

Speaker 2

You will see top-line growth, and I do anticipate we will continue to deliver margin expansion year on year. I think that's definitely the strategy.

Speaker 4

And when you look kind of geographically within international, you know, what are the most sort of exciting opportunities for you at the moment? Because it's quite a concentrated business in a way in specific geographies.

Speaker 2

I think geographically that has been part of the pruning that we did, right? We did divest a small business we had in South Korea very early in my tenure. We, I would say, very gracefully exited our business in China that had been declining over time anyway, and then recently divested a locksmithing business that we owned in Australia. That's the work of our channel, not for us to do. so non-core. Those can continue to happen, but geographically, Australia, New Zealand, Western Europe will remain our focus for the foreseeable future where we've got brand strength and brand recognition, where we've got installed base, where we've got human capital. I don't anticipate a big push on new geographies in the foreseeable future as a source of growth. I think that the runway in the markets where we currently are is plenty for us to continue profitable growth with.

Speaker 4

And is the issue in sort of the geographies lying out in those areas just lower profitability or just extreme market fragmentation? You know, what are kind of some of the factors that keep you away from the larger emerging markets?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think that the risk and return, as compared to what we see in our current organic growth plans and our current M&A pipeline and the geographies where we're already active, the risk and return into entering a brand-new market just doesn't pencil out. We have better opportunities in the markets where we're currently participating and a much lower risk to make an acquisition or introduce a new product, make an acquisition that I can bolt on to an existing business unit structure. I think that's a much more prudent way to grow international for the foreseeable future.

Speaker 4

And so there's no discussion here complete without mentioning the D word. So, you know, data center sort of scaling for you. You know, what's the rough exposure there and some of the main products that you're making a push with into that vertical?

Speaker 2

Yeah, so data centers, obviously, small, but growing nicely is the line I've used. I would just say now that I've used it with you a couple of times, I have to say it's less small, but still growing nicely. Data centers are very high security installations, which means a very rich product mix for Allegiant. And so it's a very good business for us. We have end-user standards, end-user relationships with the who's who of hyperscalers. And so very proud of the way our teams have built those relationships and write those specs. And I think that still has quite a tail of business opportunity for Allegiant. And looking forward to that continuing.

Speaker 4

Yeah, that's great. Well, with that, we'll switch to the audience response questions, please. So I think the first question is around current ownership of Allegiant, a fairly typical 60% no. The second question is around general bias or attitude to Allegiant right now, so fairly neutral. The third question is around through-cycle EPS growth against the kind of multi-industry average here.

Speaker 1

So generally in line with peers.

Speaker 4

Next question is on capital usage and how to use excess very even, both on M&A and buybacks. Next question is on valuation.

Speaker 2

Great audience.

Speaker 4

And, you know, what PE multiple should a Legion trade at? High teens to 20 times, I suppose. And then last question is around, you know, what's the main kind of valuation headwind or anchor right now? So organic growth, the biggest concern. Well, with that, thanks so much, John and Josh, for being here with us today. Thanks a lot.