6-K
UBS AG (AMUB)
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington,
D.C. 20549
_________________
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE
ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date: September 1, 2023
UBS Group AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-36764
UBS AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive offices)
Commission File Number: 1-15060
Credit Suisse AG
(Registrant's Name)
Paradeplatz 8, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-33434
Indicate by check mark whether the
registrants file or will file annual reports under
cover of Form
20-F or Form 40-
F.
Form 20-F
☒
Form 40-F
☐
This Form 6-K consists of the transcripts
of the presentation of the Second
Quarter 2023 Results of
UBS Group AG and related Q&A session,
which appear immediately following
this page.
1
Second quarter 2023 results
31 August 2023
Speeches by
Sergio P.
Ermotti
, Group
Chief Executive Officer,
and
Todd
Tuckner
,
Group Chief Financial Officer
Including analyst Q&A session
Transcript.
Numbers for slides
refer to
the second quarter
2023 results
presentation. Materials
and a
webcast
replay are available at
www.ubs.com/investors
2
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Slide 3 – Our strategy is unchanged and
is accelerated by the acquisition of
Credit Suisse
Thank you
Sarah, and
good morning
everyone.
I hope
you had
a relaxing summer
break.
For us,
these past
eight
weeks were intense
as we were
busy writing the next
chapter in UBS’s history.
This is the first-ever
acquisition
involving two global systemically important
banks.
It was announced only
five months ago and
we closed it less
than 100
days ago.
This would
not have
been possible
without extraordinary
effort
and dedication
from
my
colleagues across
both
organizations.
It also
required
extensive
cooperation
from
the Swiss
government and
regulators in Switzerland and around
the world.
We
are
swiftly
executing
on our
integration
plans, already
achieving
a number
of important
milestones.
We
established a target operating model, created a dedicated integration office, and
rolled out responsibilities with
management appointments up
to three
levels below
the Group Executive
Board, just to
name a
few.
We are
also
making progress on our cost
-saving and de-risking plans and resolving
some legacy matters for both
firms.
Following a detailed analysis, we terminated and handed back all Swiss
government support a few weeks ago.
Lastly,
we decided to fully integrate the Swiss
business of Credit Suisse after a
thorough strategic review.
The thing I am proudest about is that clients have
rewarded our unwavering commitment
with extended trust.
Thanks to their restored belief in the combined firm we were able to swiftly stabilize the Credit Suisse core – its
wealth, asset management, and Swiss Bank franchises.
We are happy to see markets recognizing our ongoing
work.
Slide 4 – Enhancing client franchises and increasing
scale
Our
strategy
is
unchanged,
and
the
Credit
Suisse
acquisition
will
act
as
an
accelerant
to
our
plans.
We
will
strengthen our position as the
only truly global wealth manager,
and as the leading Swiss universal bank,
with
scaled-up asset management and a focused
investment bank.
With a
highly
complementary
footprint,
we
will
reinforce
our
position
in key
growth
markets,
including
the
Americas and APAC, and build on our leadership in Switzerland and EMEA. We will relentlessly focus on clients
and continuously
improve
and expand
our services
and products.
With 5.5
trillion dollars
in assets
across
the
combined firm,
the transaction
adds scale
that will
lead to
increased efficiencies. This
will allow
us to
better focus
our resources, and target
investments that provide superior
levels of client service.
Slide 5 – Improving our business mix,
with unchanged capital allocation discipline
We will
achieve our
strategy while remaining
disciplined in
our resource management
across the entire
firm.
The
IB consuming
no more
than 25%
of the
Group’s risk-weighted
assets and
the rundown
of the
Non-core and
Legacy portfolio are just two of the more visible examples of our approach. In essence, we will
repeat what this
bank successfully accomplished during the
last decade.
Slide 6 – Update on integration – divider
Before I
discuss the
Swiss Bank
decision, let
me give
you a
brief overview
of our
assessment of
Credit Suisse as
of
March 19.
Since then, and especially
after we closed the
acquisition in June, we
conducted an in-depth analysis
that has only confirmed the
necessity of the decisive actions taken
over that weekend.
3
It was
not just
a matter
of liquidity
drying up.
Credit Suisse’s business
model and
business mix
was deeply
flawed
and its
reputation
severely
damaged.
With its
structural
lack of
underlying
profitability,
unsustainable
capital
allocation, and
negative revenue
and costs prospects,
the bank was
no longer in
a position to
continue on its
own. This is clearly
visible from the year-to-date losses Credit Suisse reported today, a culmination of the bank’s
two loss-making years.
Thanks to our
financial and balance sheet strength, UBS
was in a
position to answer a
rescue call from the Swiss
government, helping to stabilize the financial system.
Importantly,
the transaction preserves the best of Credit
Suisse’s
excellent
client
relationships,
people, and
industry-leading
products
that
in other
plausible
scenarios
would have
been weakened
or lost.
Unlocking Credit
Suisse’s strengths
as part
of UBS, will
allow us to
build
something of a more enduring value for
all stakeholders. This combination will reinforce our status as a
premier
global franchise – one that our home market, Switzerland, can be proud of.
We are humbled by this task, and
the responsibility entrusted to us.
But let
me make
one thing
absolutely clear:
Our ability
to stabilize
Credit Suisse,
and return
the government
guarantees in timely fashion, should not take away from the gravity of the situation we inherited. Nor should it
diminish the scope and scale of the task
ahead.
Slide 7 – Diligent approach to
identify and asses strategic options for
Credit Suisse (Schweiz)
That being said, let
me walk you
through how we came to
our decision on
the future of Credit Suisse
(Schweiz).
As I promised when I returned as CEO a few months ago, the decision would be driven by facts, not emotions,
and mindful of the extraordinary
circumstances of the transaction.
We conducted an
extremely thorough review involving teams comprised
of some of
the best people
across both
firms, with support from external experts
where needed. Our analysis focused
on four key aspects that, for us,
would determine the
long-term viability
of the business.
We examined what
the decision would
entail for our
clients, shareholders, and employees. And we gave special consideration to financial and
funding sustainability.
We started with a broad spectrum of possibilities, ranging from IPO, sale, partial or full integration to a spinoff,
and even a dual-brand strategy.
Eventually,
based on our criteria, we narrowed down our selection to the two
best options:
a full
integration or
a spin-off
of a focused
perimeter,
which would
exclude segments
requiring
global capabilities.
The final outcome was crystal clear: Full
integration is by far the best choice.
Slide 8 – Integration of Credit Suisse
(Schweiz) is the best path forward
It is not
just that the
financial merits of integration
are greater.
It is also
the best way forward for
our clients, for
whom the
industry-leading offering will
improve and broaden
as we
combine products
and
capabilities
from
both
firms.
The
alternative
would
have
been
a
bleak
one,
considering
the
current
situation,
combined
with
the
necessity to
carve out
most of
its global
capabilities. Even
a more
focused spin-off of
Credit Suisse
Schweiz would
fail to meet the needs of many of its
corporate clients, as well as the entrepreneurs
it considers core.
At the same
time, separation
from the
Group would
entail a costly,
risky and
lengthy carveout
of technology
platforms, causing uncertainty
for clients and employees
for years to come.
Moreover,
our analysis revealed
a
substantial dependency of
the Swiss
subsidiary on
financial resources
and
operational
support
from
the parent.
As
a result,
it would
have existed
as a
fragile entity
struggling to close
its funding gap,
unable to
compete effectively
and failing to
deliver sustainable
returns.
We believe
this would not
have been an
acceptable proposition
for
clients, employees – and very likely - regulators.
4
By contrast, being
a part of
UBS ensures it
will have continuous backing
from one of the
most stable and
trusted
global
financial
institutions.
The
strength
of
UBS
will
underpin
the
franchise
and
provide
access
to
efficient
funding, as demonstrated by our ability
to return all extraordinary government
and central bank facilities.
We
take
our
social
responsibilities
very
seriously.
This
is
why
I
have
repeatedly
emphasized
the
fact
that
employment-related considerations must be a key decision-making factor in our evaluation.
We have analyzed
their impact
in both
absolute
terms and
in relation
to the
Swiss
job market.
Every
lost job
is painful
for
us.
Unfortunately, in this situation,
cuts were unavoidable,
regardless of the
selected scenario.
We are committed
to
minimizing the
impact on
employees by
treating them fairly, providing
them
with
financial
support,
outplacement
services, and retraining
opportunities.
Our aim here
is to enable
those affected
to take advantage
of a quite-
healthy Swiss job market, where more
open positions in finance are available
than there are job seekers.
Let me emphasize: the vast majority of job reductions will come from natural attrition, retirements
and internal
mobility.
Around
1,000 redundancies
will result
from the
integration of
Credit Suisse
Schweiz.
These will
be
spread over
a couple
of years,
starting in
late 2024.
Importantly, in the alternative
spin-off scenario,
restructuring
would also
have been
necessary, and resulted in
about 600
redundancies. In addition,
the
necessity
to
profoundly
restructure other parts
of Credit
Suisse is
expected to
lead to
about 2,000
additional redundancies in
Switzerland
over the next couple of years.
After weighing all of the above factors,
we came to the view that a full
integration is the best way forward.
Slide 9 – Unwavering commitment to our clients,
employees and the Swiss economy
Our decision reinforces
our commitment to clients, employees,
and the Swiss economy.
Our goal
is to
make the
transition for
clients as
smooth as possible.
The two
Swiss ringfenced
entities
will
operate
separately until their planned
legal integration in
2024.
Credit Suisse brand and
operations will remain separate
during that time.
We will gradually migrate clients
onto our systems and expect to
finish this process in
2025.
Given this, nothing will
change for clients in
the foreseeable future and they do not
have to take any
immediate
action.
We will continue to provide the premier levels of service that they
have come to expect. And with time
they will begin to see the further benefits
of the combined franchise.
As we
progress in the
integration, we
remain fully committed
to our
personal, private, institutional
and
corporate
clients. In
terms of
lending,
thanks to
our even
-stronger
capital base,
our intention
is to
keep the
combined
exposure unchanged while
maintaining our
risk discipline. We
are sensitive
to
the
important
role both
firms
play
in
the lives of
our employees
and their communities.
We want
to remain
an employer
of choice
in Switzerland,
offering attractive career
opportunities.
Last but
not least,
as we
combine, we
will honor
all agreed sponsorships
of civic, sporting and cultural activities
in Switzerland at least until the end
of 2025.
I have
made it
abundantly clear to
our colleagues
that they
must not
be distracted
by the
integration.
We cannot
take our eyes off
our vision and
must remain focused on
client needs.
After all, competition in
the Swiss market
remains robust.
The cantonal banks in aggregate will continue to have
the highest market shares in all relevant
personal and
commercial banking products.
And our
branch network,
even after
the merger, is the
third-biggest.
We welcome
the challenge.
Competition is
what makes
all of
us better,
and what
makes the
Swiss financial
system stronger.
5
Slide 10 – Stabilized flows and focusing
on client win-back opportunity
Given the
events leading up
to the
acquisition, stabilizing the
Credit Suisse
client franchises globally
has been
our
most immediate priority.
Since closing in June, we have won back clients’ confidence, as evidenced by positive
asset flows and strong engagement
across Wealth Management
and the Swiss business.
We saw formidable momentum in deposits, with
23 billion dollars in inflows
for the quarter, 18 billion of which
came
into
Credit
Suisse’s
Wealth
Management
and
Swiss
Bank.
Meanwhile,
UBS
wealth
management
has
delivered the highest second-quarter
net new money performance in over a
decade.
We are pleased
to share that
this positive
trend has
carried on
into July
and August.
While the
quarter is
not over
yet, so far we have attracted net new
assets of 8 billion for the combined wealth
management businesses.
It is
encouraging and rewarding to
see the
franchise stabilize so
quickly.
Winning back
the more than
200 billion
dollars of
client assets that
left Credit Suisse
over the
past year won’t
be easy, but recapturing as
much as
we can
is one of our top priorities.
Slide 11 – Non-strategic assets and businesses
to be exited through Non
-Core and Legacy
Let’s move to assets that we have designated as non-core. First, let me briefly touch on the 9 billion RWAs that
will be included in the combined Investment
Bank.
These assets
were selected through
a disciplined
process designed to
enhance our
Global Banking
and
derivatives
operations.
The
transferred
businesses
are
expected
to
be
accretive
from
next
year.
They
will
help
drive
economies of scale while adding only
13% to the investment bank’s current
non op-risk RWAs.
The remaining 17 billion
of Credit Suisse’s investment bank,
as you can
see from the chart,
will be transferred to
the newly-formed Non-core and Legacy unit.
This will also include Credit Suisse’s entire Capital Release Unit as
well as
selected assets
from the
combined wealth and
asset management
businesses
that
are not
aligned
with
our
risk appetite or strategy.
Overall, the
NCL will
comprise of 224
billion in
LRD, with
a significant
portion
in high-quality
and
liquid
assets,
and
55 billion in risk weighted assets excluding
op-risk RWAs.
With the perimeter largely defined, we are already executing on our
strategy to exit these assets in a
timely and
efficient manner.
We made a
good start
in the
second quarter, reducing positions representing
a total
of
9 billion
in RWA. Around
half of those came from sales that
we actively pursued.
Slide 12 – Non-core and legacy
rundown to drive lower costs and efficient
capital release
As I
mentioned before, this
is not
the first
time our
organization has
managed a
successful run-down of
non-core
assets.
Our previous experience is a
big part of why we are confident
in our ultimate success.
A clear priority
for us is
to take out
a substantial part
of the operating
costs associated with this
unit.
I will touch
on that in a minute.
Thanks
to
our
strong
capital
position,
and
markdowns
we
took
as
part
of
the
PPA
adjustments,
we
have
substantial
flexibility
in order
to optimize
the outcome.
These are
not distressed
assets, so
we can
maintain
positions if they preserve value.
Our decisions whether to do so will be based on economic profitability,
taking
into account funding, operating and
capital costs of the portfolios.
On those positions we do
decide to exit, we
will move at pace, acting fairly and protecting
our clients and counterparties.
6
The natural
run-off profile
is a
steep one.
As you
can see
from the
chart, we
will have
a 50%,
or 27
billion,
reduction in non op-risk RWAs by 2026
and a similar reduction in
LRD.
But let me assure you
that our proactive
approach to accelerate the wind-down
will continue.
Slide 13 – Executing on plans to achieve
greater than 10bn gross
cost reductions by year-end
2026
Now let’s
turn to
cost reductions, a
key element of
returning to
profitability and creating
sustainable value across
the combined
firm. First,
as we
speak, we
are actively addressing
the need
for deep
restructuring at Credit
Suisse.
This is an
acceleration and
expansion of the
work that the
firm itself saw
as necessary to
put a stop
to losing
money.
Secondly,
additional efforts are required
to generate synergies across
the combined businesses.
We aim
to take
out over
10 billion
dollars in
gross expenses from
the combined
franchise, based
on
full-year
2022
cost base.
Around half of
that will come from
restructuring the investment
bank and running down
non-core
assets.
The other half will come from
actions across the rest of our operations.
There is meaningful duplication
that can be removed, thousands of applications and IT platforms to be decommissioned, and hundreds of legal
entities to be merged or closed to make
us more efficient and effective.
Let me
give you
an example.
Of Credit
Suisse’s current 3,000+
IT applications only
around 300
will be
integrated
into UBS infrastructure, contributing
to our combined future business
model.
Importantly,
we will
continue
investing
to make
our platforms
and
processes
more
resilient
and support
our
existing, and future, growth
ambitions.
We will also
absorb some further inflation.
All told, we
aim to bring
the
Group’s underlying cost/income ratio
exit rate below 70% in 2026.
Slide 14 – We aim to substantially
complete integration for the Group
by year-end 2026
We
are
two and
a half
months
into one
of the
biggest
and most
complex
bank mergers
in history.
We
are
executing
our
plans
at
pace
and
wasting
no
time
in
delivering
value
for
our
all
our
stakeholders,
including
shareholders.
In the next four to six months our focus will be on
restoring underlying profitability,
while progressing on other
areas, including business
transformation, client
migration
and
simplification
of
our
combined
legal
entity
structure.
On the latter, a key milestone will be the merger of
our parent operating entities UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG.
This step,
planned for
2024, will allow
us to simplify
our structure
and operating
model, optimize
capital and
liquidity within the Group, and will
support achieving our cost-savings
ambitions.
We expect to substantially complete
our integration program by
2026.
Slide 15 – Working towards
~15% RoCET1
A key
pillar of
our strategy
is to
maintain a
balance sheet
for all
seasons -
one that
supports our
capital-generative
business and
allows us
to offer
attractive capital
returns.
We expect to
operate at
around 14% CET1
capital ratio
over the medium term. And as we exit 2026, we aim to achieve an underlying return on CET1 of around 15%.
As you
know, we have
suspended share repurchases for
the time
being.
But
we
remain
committed
to
growing
our
dividend and
returning excess capital
to shareholders through buybacks.
We will update
you on
our plans
in this
regard with the fourth-quarter
results.
With
that,
let
me
hand
over
to
Todd.
7
Todd
Tuckner
Slide 17 – UBS Group 2Q23 results
Thank you, Sergio.
Good morning everyone – it is a privilege
to be with you today as Group
CFO, especially
at this watershed moment for UBS.
Since my appointment, my focus has
been on the financial consolidation of
the two firms, progressing
the
work done on transaction adjustments, optimizing
our liquidity and funding position, firming
up our cost
savings and enhancing financial reporting
controls for the expanded
group.
Regardless of whether staff
come from Credit Suisse
or UBS, I’ve been extremely impressed
with the
dedication of the finance team.
I’m proud of what we as a
unit have already been able to
accomplish, and
we, like the entire firm, continue
to execute at pace.
We recognize that this is a
complex deal, but our aim is to be clear and
forthcoming in explaining the
financial implications of our actions during this
critical period and beyond.
Today,
I’ll cover our second quarter operating
performance, the impact of the merger
on our balance sheet
and capital as of day 1 and, finally,
our integration plan and outlook.
Let’s start with the quarter on slide 17.
I’ll refer to UBS Group
AG’s consolidated results, which
this quarter
include one month of Credit Suisse’s
operating performance, presented
under IFRS and in US dollars.
On a reported basis, the second
quarter profit was 29 billion, both
pre-
and post-tax.
These results were
largely driven by the net impact from
items related to the acquisition,
principally negative goodwill of
28.9 billion and integration-related expenses
and acquisition costs.
Excluding these items, the Group
pre-tax
profit was 1.1 billion, of which
2.0 billion from the UBS sub-group,
and negative 0.8 billion from the
Credit
Suisse sub-group.
Slide 18 – Negative goodwill and overview
of purchase price allocation adjustments
Turning to slide
18.
The negative goodwill of 28.9 billion
is calculated as the difference
between the
consideration UBS paid and the fair value
of the acquired net assets after
taking into account the various PPA
adjustments of
negative 25 billion.
The roughly
6 billion difference between
the negative goodwill reported today
and the amount included in
the Form F4 registration statement
just prior to closing is principally explained
by two factors. First, Credit
Suisse generated operating losses over the
first 5 months of 2023 that were
not captured in the F4, which
was prepared as if the transaction
occurred on December 31, 2022.
Second, we applied additional net
negative PPA
adjustments to Credit Suisse’s financial
assets and liabilities, reflecting
a more detailed fair value
assessment post-closing.
The total net PPA
adjustments of negative 25 billion consist
primarily of marks of negative 14.7 billion
in
connection with financial assets and liabilities.
This includes negative 12.4 billion on mainly
fixed-rate accrual
assets and liabilities, of which around
8 and half billion relates to our core
businesses and around 4 billion to
Non-core and Legacy.
In addition, we made negative 2.3
billion of further necessary adjustments to
fair value
positions, mostly related to Non-core
and Legacy.
The negative 8 and a half billion of marks
on core-business accrual financial instruments
include, for example,
PPA adjustments
on the Swiss mortgage book, which were
almost entirely interest
rate driven.
8
The majority of the accrual-basis positions are
expected to mature within
the next 3 to 4 years and, if held to
maturity,
will pull to par.
Of the total marks on accrual positions,
6 billion pre-tax, or 5 billion net of tax,
are CET1 capital-neutral as
FINMA has granted us transitional relief,
which mainly applies to Swiss mortgages.
The transitional treatment
is subject to linear amortization concluding
by June 30, 2027.
The negative marks of 2.3 billion on fair
value assets and liabilities that I
mentioned earlier reflect UBS’s
assessment of the complexity,
liquidity and model risk uncertainties in
the book, as well as the relevant
markets for potential strategic exits.
We also made PPA
adjustments of negative 4.5 billion
to capture UBS’s determination
of Credit Suisse’s
provisions and contingent liabilities
related to litigation, regulatory
and similar matters. This includes 1.5
billion of incremental provisions
Credit Suisse took in the second
quarter.
Other net PPA
adjustments, totaling to negative 5 and
a half billion, largely relate
to GAAP differences
associated with pension accounting, but also
goodwill and intangibles, and fair value
marks on non-financial
assets and liabilities, including software
and real estate.
Of the total negative 25 billion of PPA
adjustments,
negative 17 billion is CET1 capital-relevant,
with the
balance relating to the 5 billion regulatory
waiver I mentioned earlier,
and other items that are filtered
out of
CET1 capital, such as pension accounting
differences, goodwill and
intangibles.
Overall, we believe the negative goodwill, including
the PPA
adjustments therein – in addition
to
underpinning almost 240 billion of acquired
RWA - provides
us with sufficient capacity to absorb
the costs to
achieve our two key saving objectives:
first, an efficient wind-down
of the non-core businesses and
associated
overhead we acquired, and second,
positive operating leverage and synergies
in our core franchises.
All while
remaining capital-generative
over the integration timeline.
Slide 19 – The acquisition
strengthens the foundation of the
combined bank
We are highly confident that
we can successfully integrate Credit
Suisse, enhancing our business model and
operating metrics, while continuing to ensure
we maintain world class capital ratios
and a balance sheet for
all seasons.
On page 19, we illustrate how the transaction
strengthens key financial
measures from day 1, offering
us a
highly attractive starting point as we commence
this journey.
Since the acquisition, our capital position
is even
stronger with almost 200 billion total
loss absorbing capacity,
and a CET1 capital ratio of 14.4%.
Additionally,
our tangible book value per share
is up 49% quarter on quarter and, today,
we manage over 5
and a half trillion dollars of invested assets
with a unique and meaningful presence
in all the major markets
across the globe.
Slide 20 – Our balance sheet for all seasons
remains the foundation of our
success
Remaining on capital on slide 20.
The strength of our balance
sheet is the foundation of our success
and the
reason why we were able
to restore financial stability
and client trust in such a short amount
of time.
As of the end of June, as just mentioned,
our CET1 capital ratio was 14.4% and
our CET1 leverage ratio was
4.8%.
Included in our capital ratio this quarter are
the impacts from the closing
of the Credit Suisse acquisition,
including a 10 billion operational risk RWA
reduction from diversification
benefits and a combined lower
forward-looking risk profile.
9
Looking through to the end of the
year,
we expect our CET1 capital ratio
to remain around
14%, as the
benefit of RWA reductions,
improvements in our underlying profitability,
mainly from cost saves, and
CET1
capital-relevant pull-to-par effects
from the PPA
adjustments are expected
to largely,
but not fully,
offset
integration-related expenses.
We also expect to maintain a
CET1 capital ratio of around
14% and a CET1 leverage ratio
or more than 4%
over the medium-term.
You
have often heard us referring
to our balance sheet for all seasons and
our capital-generative operating
model that allows us to service clients and
invest in the business through
the cycle.
It’s how we’ve operated
over the last decade, and it’s how we
intend to continue to operate going
forward.
So rest assured,
maintaining a balance sheet for all seasons
will remain among our very top
priorities.
Slide 21 – Prudent management of liquidity
and funding
On liquidity and funding on slide 21, we
closed the quarter with an average
liquidity coverage ratio of 175%,
well above our prior quarter level, and
a net stable funding ratio of 118%.
The liquidity coverage ratio
increase largely reflects the
elevated HQLA levels at Credit Suisse,
including the effect of the usage
of the
Swiss National Bank facilities.
As Sergio highlighted, positive net new
deposits in the past few months enabled
us to repay ELA+ and
terminate the Public Liquidity Backstop facility,
as announced earlier this month.
We expect to continue
attracting net new deposits, and as of this
week we’ve already seen, in the
third quarter,
13 billion of positive
net new deposit flows in our combined wealth
management and Swiss franchises.
While this will help us
narrow the inherited funding gap
and continue to manage our liquidity
coverage ratio at prudent levels, we
expect to resume execution of
our funding plans shortly.
In addition to maintaining significant liquidity
and funding buffers on a consolidated
basis, we’re actively
managing the allocation of financial resources
among our significant legal entities,
which also have
standalone funding requirements
and will continue to operate while we
progress towards our
target legal
entity structure.
We’re working towards
merging Credit Suisse AG
into UBS AG in 2024, as this is a critical step
to removing
resource allocation bottlenecks
and enabling the realization of
business and operational efficiencies.
Slide 22 – 2Q23 UBS business divisions
and Group Functions (IFRS) – excl.
Credit Suisse
Now onto slide 22.
Excluding Credit Suisse’s performance
in June, the effects of the acquisition
I mentioned
earlier,
and a gain on sale of 848 million in
Asset Management last year,
UBS’s pre-tax profit in the
quarter
was 2.0 billion, up 12% year-over-year.
Slide 23 – Global Wealth Management
Before turning to the UBS sub-group
business divisions starting on page 23,
let me first point out that for the
second quarter,
the negative goodwill as well as a
substantial portion of integration-related
expenses have
been retained and reported
in Group Functions.
Starting with the third quarter,
we intend to consolidate the
reporting of our business divisions
across the UBS and Credit
Suisse sub-groups, and we’ll
report integration-
related expenses in the respective
combined segments.
All references to figures
are in US dollars and comparisons
are year-over-year,
unless stated otherwise.
10
In Global Wealth Management, we
delivered net new money of 16
billion, the strongest second quarter
in
over a decade, with inflows across
Switzerland, EMEA and APAC,
and despite 5 billion in seasonal tax
payments in the US.
We also delivered net new
fee generating assets of 13 billion, or an annualized
growth rate of 4% with
positive flows across all regions,
as well as net new deposits of
5 billion.
These strong inflows across
net new money,
fee-generating assets and deposits
demonstrate our continuous
focus on active client engagement and
the trust our clients place in us.
This was especially important during
a
quarter where the macro
backdrop and developments with
Credit Suisse placed a premium
on our investment
advice and the stability of our GWM franchise.
Profit before tax was 1.1
billion, down 4% despite strong growth
in EMEA and Switzerland of 15% and
9%,
respectively.
Positive top-line contributions from
all regions outside of Americas
supported a 1% revenue
increase, which was more
than offset by higher expenses.
In the Americas, revenues were
down 4% mainly as net interest
income reflected continued rotation
into
higher yielding deposits and investments
from transactional and sweep
deposit accounts.
Although we
expect NII in the Americas to continue
to tick-down sequentially from
ongoing cash sorting and deleveraging
in the current rates environment,
we nevertheless continue to see the
US market as a strategic priority for
us,
and hence we continue to invest in the
business for future growth.
As a result, we expect our
pre-tax margin
in the Americas to be low double-digit
to mid-teens over the near-term.
Onto total GWM revenues.
Net interest income was up
14% year-over-year,
and down 3% sequentially,
the
latter reflecting mix shifts and lower
deposit and loan balances, partly offset
by higher deposit margins.
Recurring net fee income decreased
3% due to negative market performance while
positive inflows were
offset by clients’ continued repositioning
into lower margin solutions.
As a reminder,
we bill based on daily
balances in the Americas and on month
-end balances everywhere
else.
As such, second quarter revenues
did
not fully reflect June’s market
rally, which
we’re seeing benefit the third
quarter.
Transaction
-based income decreased 6%,
impacted by investor uncertainty,
particularly in Americas and
APAC.
However,
towards the end of the second
quarter and into the third, we’re
seeing a pick-up in both
client sentiment and transactional momentum
especially in APAC.
Operating expenses ex-litigation, integration
-related expenses and FX were
up 3% driven by increases in
technology and personnel expenses.
Slide 24 – Personal & Corporate Banking
(CHF)
Turning to Personal
& Corporate Banking on slide 24.
We delivered another record
quarter excluding past
one-off gains.
Profit before tax was
up 54% to 612 million Swiss francs.
Revenues increased 24%, with
increases across all revenue
lines, highlighting continued momentum
in the business. Net interest income
increased by 45% year on year
and 12% quarter-on-quarter.
Sequentially,
we continued to see loan growth,
while the deposit base remained roughly
stable. Costs were up 9%,
driven by continued tech investments
and
higher personnel expenses.
The cost-to-income ratio was 51%,
a 7 percentage-point improvement
year-on-
year,
demonstrating strong positive operating
leverage.
We saw strong momentum
with 10% annualized growth in net
new investment products and
almost
6 thousand net new clients, reflecting
the trust our clients continue to
place in us.
11
Slide 25 – Asset Management
Moving to slide 25.
In Asset Management the profit
before tax was 90 million.
Excluding last year’s gain on sale, total
revenues decreased 5%,
with lower net management fees,
driven by
market headwinds, asset mix, as well
as lower performance fees.
These headwinds were partially
offset by
1% lower costs.
Net new money in the quarter was strong
at 17 billion, a 6% annualized growth
rate.
Net new money
excluding money markets and associates was
19.5 billion, with positive momentum
in SMAs and alternatives.
Slide 26 – Investment Bank
Turning to slide
26.
In the Investment Bank the profit
before tax was 139 million.
The operating environment for the
Investment Bank’s trading businesses was
defined by significantly lower
equity volatility levels compared
to the prior-year period.
Within Global Markets, this resulted in a
meaningful decline in client activity levels
across both Equities and
FRC, where revenues of
1.5 billion were down 11%, broadly
consistent with our peer group.
Our Financing business continued to deliver
strong results, reporting
its best second-quarter and best first-half
on record. This demonstrates
the resilience of our balanced
portfolio of risk-efficient businesses,
as we
continue to invest in capabilities that are
critical to our clients.
Global Banking revenues of 371
million were down 2% as the
second quarter saw the global fee
pool hit its
lowest quarterly level since 2012.
In the second quarter we significantly
outperformed the fee pool in EMEA
and gained share in global M&A.
Operating expenses were up 2%,
predominantly on higher tech
investments offsetting lower provisions
for
litigation, regulatory and similar
matters.
Slide 27 – 2Q23 Credit Suisse AG
reported loss of (8.9bn), (4.3bn)
excluding acquisition related
effects;
(2.1bn) adjusted loss (CHF,
US GAAP)
On slide 27, I now turn to Credit Suisse
AG’s full second quarter results,
which were separately published
earlier today.
Credit Suisse AG’s reported
pre-tax loss for the second quarter
was 8.9 billion Swiss francs.
This result includes several large
items, including 2.2 billion in adjustments
to fair value marks, 1.8 billion in
software write-downs, 1.3 billion in additional
litigation provisions, and 1.0 billion
for a goodwill impairment.
Stripping out these and other items that
are not representative
of Credit Suisse AG’s underlying
performance
in the quarter,
the adjusted operating loss was 2.1
billion Swiss francs.
Not included in this figure are
the results of a few legal entities
that fall outside of Credit Suisse
AG’s
consolidation scope.
Including those entities, the Credit
Suisse sub-group’s pro
-forma second quarter
adjusted operating loss was 2.0 billion Swiss
francs.
In discussing the Credit Suisse
sub-group performance in
the second quarter,
I’ll focus on this 2-billion Swiss franc
adjusted loss as it better informs the starting
point
for the group in combination with
UBS’s quarterly underlying performance.
12
Slide 28– Credit Suisse adjusted
2Q23 results (CHF,
US GAAP)
On slide 28, Credit Suisse’s
quarterly adjusted pre-tax loss was
largely driven by operating losses in the
Credit
Suisse Investment Bank and the Capital
Release Unit, as well as elevated funding
costs in the Credit Suisse
Corporate Center.
Sequentially,
revenues declined by 38%, driven
by Credit Suisse’s Investment
Bank, down 78%, where the
sharp drop in revenues was
due to little-to-no new activity in the context
of expected exits following the
acquisition.
Second quarter revenues also reflected
elevated funding costs, primarily from
the Swiss National
Bank facilities.
Going forward, we’ll focus on two
key priorities in relation to Credit
Suisse’s Investment Bank and Capital
Release Unit.
First, rebuild activity and profitability
levels of the businesses we decided to retain
as part of our
core Investment Bank. And second,
actively manage the wind-down
of businesses and positions that are
not
aligned to our strategy.
These include those already
in the Credit Suisse Capital Release
Unit and Investment
Bank not retained as core,
and will be managed and reported
within our Non-Core and
Legacy segment
beginning in the third quarter.
Moreover,
as the wind down is executed,
we’ll decisively take out all costs in relation
to resources, technology
and real estate that are not
needed to support either what is retained
in our core Investment Bank or
what is
strictly required to efficiently
wind-down businesses and positions managed
by our Non-core and Legacy
team.
In contrast to Credit Suisse’s Investment
Bank and Capital Release Unit, we saw relative
stability across Credit
Suisse’s Wealth Management, Swiss
Bank and Asset Management segments.
In Credit Suisse Wealth
Management, we’ve seen a stabilization
of net new assets, trending from
substantial
outflows in April to net inflows in June, with
14 billion dollars of net new deposits
in the quarter.
We remain
focused on introducing Credit
Suisse’s clients to the unrivaled value
proposition of the combined
firm to
counterbalance any headwinds to our flows
from lag effects stemming
from past or future attrition
of Credit
Suisse relationship managers.
In addition to clear and decisive actions
to retain client assets, we
also
implemented client advisor incentive programs
with the clear objective to “win
back” and sustainably retain
client assets.
Quarter to date, these actions
have helped us to attract net new deposits
of 10 billion dollars
and positive net new assets in the Credit
Suisse wealth management franchise.
Credit Suisse’s adjusted operating
expenses were down 10% sequentially,
reflecting actions initiated
before
and after the merger announcement, as
well as voluntary attrition of employees.
As of the end of the second
quarter,
headcount was down by over 8,000 compared
to the end of 2022, split roughly
equally between
internal and external staff.
Slide 29 – Driving positive underlying profitability
and maintaining ~14% CET1 capital
ratio
I now turn to slide 29.
On an illustrative and underlying basis,
the sum of the UBS sub-group
pre-tax profit of
2.0 billion, and the Credit Suisse sub-group
pre-tax loss of 2.2 billion, after translation
to US dollars, equals a
combined pro forma Group
operating loss of around negative
0.3 billion.
You
can consider this indicative
level as a useful starting point to contextualize
the trajectory of our underlying profitability
going forward,
and assess the steps we are taking
to achieve our ambitions.
First and foremost, we’re
executing on our cost reduction
plans at pace and we expect positive combined
underlying profits in the second
half of 2023.
We expect to deliver underlying exit
rate cost savings of over 3
billion by the end of the year - which
will
benefit our 2024 results - and to
incur a broadly similar amount
of
integration-related expenses in 2H23.
While neutral to our underlying performance,
I would note that such
integration-related expenses will be
partly offset by pull-to-par effects
of over 1 and a half billion.
13
Second, asset and deposit retention and
win-back initiatives will continue to
support the positive momentum
across our wealth management businesses.
In particular we expect to see positive
underlying contribution
from the Credit Suisse wealth
management franchise by the first half
of 2024.
We will apply this same
systematic approach to client and
asset retention and win-back
across all of our core franchises,
especially
following today’s announcement in connection
with the Swiss businesses.
Third, our second quarter 2023 pro
forma results include 550 million
of funding costs related to the Swiss
National Bank facilities that Credit
Suisse reported in its Corporate
Center.
The repayment of these facilities
will lead to materially lower funding
costs in the third quarter and further
benefits in the fourth quarter for
the combined Group.
Continuing on the NII topic, sequentially
for 3Q23, we expect a low single-digit
percentage decline in our combined
wealth management businesses, with
positive contribution from the
Credit Suisse franchise, and a mid
-single-digit percentage decline
in our Swiss businesses.
This excludes the
pull to par effects I mentioned earlier.
These elements, in combination with disciplined
resource management and
a focused execution mindset
across the leadership team, give
us confidence in our ability to deliver a
successful integration, starting with
approaching break-even in
the third quarter and returning to
positive underlying profitability
before the end
of the year.
With that I’ll hand back to Sergio for his closing
remarks.
14
Sergio P.
Ermotti – closing remarks
Slide 29 – Key messages
Thank you, Todd.
As we speak,
the geopolitical
and macroeconomic
outlook remains
volatile and
difficult to
predict.
Of course, major developments on this front will impact
our business in the short term.
As always, our
first priority is to stay close to
clients and help them manage the challenges and opportunities presented by this
uncertain environment.
For us, this is business as usual and we
remain focused on this priority.
At the same time, we will also execute on our integration plans with determination and
pace.
That will unlock
significant
economies
of
scale
allowing
us
to
fund
future
investments
as
we
continue
to
pursue
growth
opportunities. We are well aware of the
additional trust and responsibility that accompany this
transaction.
We
will not betray that trust, remaining
faithful to our strong culture
and conservative risk management.
I am excited about the opportunities that
lie ahead of us.
I strongly believe UBS will emerge
as a stronger
global financial institution, one of even greater
value to its clients, while remaining
safe and delivering
superior returns.
With that let’s get started with questions.
15
Analyst Q&A (CEO and CFO)
Jeremy Sigee, Exane BNP Paribas
Good morning. Thank you very much for all
the information. There's a lot to
get through and a lot of
questions. I'll just ask two things. One is,
could you talk about the Swiss integration,
which obviously takes
time and I think you said it's going to
legally close in 2024 and then physically
integrate in 2025. I just
wondered, you know,
what determines that timeframe
and how you manage? How you intend
to keep the
businesses stable whilst they're in
that slight sort of limbo period. So that's
my first question.
And the second question is about sort
of capital stack. The 14% CET1 target
I imagine it implies that you're
going to reissue AT1
and rebuild the AT1
part of your capital stack. And I saw a
headline the other day that
you might even do that this autumn.
I just wondered if you could
comment on that aspect, your intentions
in
terms of issuing AT1.
Thank you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Thank you, Jeremy.
So, well, first of all, on the integration,
of course, you know,
now that we go through, as
I mentioned, it's very important to understand
the sequence of how we're
going to go through the merger
of
the different legal entities.
You know,
we, as I mentioned before,
our intention is to merge the two parent
company,
UBS AG and Credit Suisse
AG. And as a follow-through
different entities underneath will
go
through the same process.
So, we need to optimize the timing from
different aspects. And last
but not least,
also one of regulatory approvals.
So, we are starting now the
process to do that in terms of
the Swiss
business.
You know,
the way we will manage that is
by, as
I mentioned, first of all, assuring that
all people employed in
the Swiss businesses at UBS and Credit
Suisse will not be subject to any redundancies
until the end of 2024.
So, what's the most important message
is to clients, that nothing changes for them
and our view is to make it
very smooth for clients to go through
the transition.
And so once we go through this
kind of legal process and regulatory
process of merging the two entities,
at
the same time, we are also
tackling the IT migration, the operational
migration. And this is something that
will only be completed early on in 2025.
So, what we, the message here
is a balance between showing the
way forward to our people, to
clients, but without rush and in a stable
manner.
So that people you, our
clients continue to be served in the way
they expect to be served.
In terms of the CET1 target, well, of course,
AT1 continues
to be an important element of our capital
stack
and strategy.
I will not comment on speculations.
We are watching the market
carefully,
we will assess the
timing and the need of tapping the
markets when appropriate.
But, yes of course we are looking
at the AT1
markets and we will make our consideration
when appropriate.
Alastair Ryan, Bank of America Merrill
Lynch
Yes. Thank
you. It's Alastair,
BofA. Sergio, good morning. Great
to have clarity on the strategy and
obviously
the market is delighted as you are
that the flows have come back. Just then
on operating costs. Very
clear
ambitions and it looks like you're
bringing forward a little 2027
to 2026 when you've landed everything.
But
just given the size of the operating costs
in the old Credit Suisse investment
bank and non-core, can you
give
us any sense about how quickly you can
go there? So the quite a large
restructuring charge, integration
charge in the second half, but does that
cost number move out quickly so that
you normalize profitability or
is
there still quite a long, long tail to
the cost in that part of the business?
It's just, you know,
IB classic, the
revenues have gone, the costs are
still lingering and how quickly they
go? Thank you.
16
Todd
Tuckner
Hi, Alastair.
Yeah.
In terms of the speed at which we
expect to take out cost. As Sergio and
I said, we've been
operating at pace in terms of the cost takeout
which is among our top priorities.
In terms of in particular
restructuring the parts of Credit
Suisse that need immediate attention
and restructuring.
And so you see how
we're making very strong
progress out of the gate
in terms of the cost takeout through
the second half of
2023 and the cost to achieve those cost
takeout as well.
We've obviously modeled to get to
the targets that – or the landing
zones that we described earlier in terms
of returns and the cost-to-income ratio
at the end of 2026.
But as you say,
the costs do have a long tail in
some cases, and that's because of the
complexity of the operation that we
have to unpack.
Because you
have significant infrastructure and
technology; you have a very large
array of legal entities, over a thousand
legal entities, that have to be addressed.
And just back one proof point
on the software components,
there are 3,000 applications
and the work that
our team has done suggests that we will
only integrate 300 into UBS. That takes
time. And so, yes, there is a
long tail, but you can count on us to
operate quickly.
The last thing I would say is in terms
of clarity on a sense of as those things
hit through, because we give a
degree of clarity through the
second half of the year and we give
sort of that landing zone, we will come
back with further clarity once we do the
business planning process in the
second half of the year.
,And that
will be with our fourth quarter earnings in early
February.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
And I would probably complement
Todd’s
observation. Because, it is very important
that de facto the vast
majority of the assets are in
non-core and legacy are
supported by the Credit Suisse
IB platform. So, as we
progress in winding down
the, call it, core day-to-day
operation from the front
office stand point of view.
Whatever is left is going to be legacy infrastructure,
IB infrastructure, that is only
there for non-core. And so
you can see out then this will be a very
important element in determining how
quickly we get rid of non-core
assets. Because as a consequence of that,
we accelerate the winding down
of this operation. But I think that's
exactly what we are working on
and we will give you more
detail early on next year when we present
our Q4
results and our three year
plan.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Good morning, everybody.
And thanks for taking my questions.
Just two for me. First, in Wealth
Management, you've talked about now
essentially being at scale in every growth
market globally.
But in
tangible terms, what does that enhanced
scale enable you to do that perhaps
you weren't able to do
previously? And have you seen any
proactive response from
competitors in reaction to
that enhanced scale?
That's my first question.
And then second, looking at the banking
business in Switzerland. Now the dust
has settled, does all the
volatility we saw earlier in the year changed
at all how you think strategically about running
the combined
Swiss bank be it in terms of capital, funding,
liquidity,
etc.? I guess just sort of simply has your
risk appetite
changed in Switzerland?
17
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Thank you. So, , look, in terms of scale,
of course, there is an economy
of scale. So, being able to leverage
UBS's IT platform as we onboard
all the assets. It's a huge advantage
because we have, call it, marginal costs
effects. But also when you look at
the geographic footprint of the two
operations, they are extremely
complementary in some areas
by relationships, but also in geographical
terms, i.e. for example, in Brazil, right.
So, we had a we had a lot of operation,
Credit Suisse is much stronger,
we now create a very
important
player.
In Asia we've really reinforced
our position and both in North Asia and
Southeast Asia. I think that in
Switzerland its quite clear,
And also across Europe where
there are different
markets where you know
ideally
it's a very fragmented market in general,
wealth management, particularly in
Europe. So there,
we create
economies of scales and things that we would
have not been able to fund from
our organic standpoint of
view. So, it's very
important.
As I mentioned before also Credit
Suisse across the board,
in asset management, in wealth management
brings capabilities and excellent products
that can be then leveraged into our,
into the UBS client franchise.
And we've seen the competitors.
I mean the reaction of competitors,
of course, they started to take
advantage of the fragile situation of Credit
Suisse already during 2022,
late 2022, of course, at the beginning
of the year.
And it's a pretty normal situation so.
Now having said that, I think that
as you saw from the
flows, clients are now comfortable
and they understand the value added
of the franchise, we are able to
retain and actually re-attract
back clients.
So, now it's our turn to be proactive
and we will not spare any
effort to regain back any lost
assets.
So, in terms of the Swiss has anything,
is anything changing? I mean, it's very
important to reiterate that
nothing changes in the way we run
our Swiss businesses until they are
fully integrated, right? So, from a
client point of view,
and in service, and in risk, and
capital allocation, nothing changes. And
even after we
merged, our commitment, as I said in my
remarks, is that we will continue
to sustain the combined lending
book. Of course, there are
exceptional risky situations, but our principle
is very clear.
One and one makes
two. We want to keep our market
share in Switzerland. Switzerland
is strategic, absolutely strategic for the
Group, and we will not want to
lose any of the market share we
have today.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Yeah,
good morning, Sergio and Todd.
Thanks for taking my questions. First
question is on risk weighted
assets. You
have around USD 557 billion, USD
145 billion operational risk weighted assets.
And I'm just
wondering how we should think about
the exit run rates in 2026 in terms
of total risk weighted assets as well
as in terms of operational risk weighted assets
if I may.
And then the second question is related
to the non-
core. Could you talk a little bit about
the P&L effects of the non-core
ex any more active write-downs
or sales,
so to say,
leading to potential write-downs? I'm just trying
to understand the P&L in terms of run
rate of the
noncore legacy bank, if I may.
Thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Hi Kian. In terms of the op risk RWA,
we will come back next quarter after
doing a fair bit of additional
modeling in terms of the op risk RWA
of the combined bank.
We've started to have initial views
on that and
initial discussions with our regulators
and that informed the 10 billion reduction
that I spoke about in my
comments. And then, in terms of the
trajectory and how we think about the
5.57 towards 2026, you'll have
more color on that after we
complete the business planning process
and our 3 YSP and come back early
next
year as mentioned.
18
In terms of, you asked about the P&L and
the run rate in non-core. So,
what I would say on that is. So first
off, the thing that's most important
is to take costs out and to focus very
significantly on the cost takeout
because there's a significant level
of overhead and costs that aren't
associated with the wind down of the
portfolio. So, the way to think about it
is that we have emphasized so far today
that we have to take costs
out and effectively,
the costs that sit in parts of Credit
Suisse that don't work. And so, those costs,
whether
they be personnel costs or whether they
be technology costs or real estate
costs, they move into non-core
and legacy if they don't support the core
businesses and they have to be run down
extremely quickly.
And so,
I would say,
first and foremost, it's a cost.
The way to think about it is the
cost rundown over the integration
timeline. Then there's the asset
rundown and we talked about the trajectory
from a natural rundown
perspective. And of course as Sergio mentioned
that there will be strategically
and actively looking at that.
And of course from that perspective,
we have taken some PPA
adjustments in excess of USD 5 billion
relating
to non-core and legacy.
I think that's a useful way to think about
it too, the fact that some of that pulls to
par
and some of that will be fair value positions.
And we will manage that book in the
most capital efficient way that we
can and dispose of positions as
appropriate. And also keeping just
considering funding costs and the costs
of operations, technology,
people,
etc.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Okay.
Thank you. If I may just very briefly
on the risk weighted assets, if I –
to take a very simplistic view and I
just assume. I know the runoff,
I can make some assumptions about
Basel IV then op risk which is clearly
very
difficult to predict if I want
to be conservative. One could assume
that ultimately the risk weighted assets
conservatively could not grow if
at all to materially decline?
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Kian, its, you know,
we can't really comment right
now. We are
modeling. We are
really going through the
details of the plan. We need to really
also go through the exercise.
I'm sure you appreciate when
we put
together legal entities, the optimization
of all that, it's a fairly complex operation.
So, I wouldn't go into a territory of
projecting risk-weighted assets
going forward because: one, there
are two
elements – well, three elements.
The starting point is a good starting
point. We know that we can make
some
adjustments in the next three to four
months. Op risk was one of these subjects.
But then you need to go
through, first of all, what are
the efficiencies we take out as
we run down assets. Yes.
What are the efficiency
on optimizing legal entity operations? And
then what is the growth? Because
remember,
we are going to
grow, as well.
And we have to attach also that
prospect into the equation. I wouldn't
go into too much of a
risk-weighted assets projection until
you see what we tell you in Q3 and
Q4, for the Q4 results.
Flora Bocahut, Jefferies
Yes. Good
morning. Thank you for taking my questions.
I'd like to go back actually to some of
the elements
you have discussed on this call already,
especially the NCL. Maybe trying to
help us understand how much of
the ROCET1 improvement towards
2026 is going to be driven by this
unit, considering our move to natural
runoff here, you know,
trying to help us assess already
at this stage what – how loss-making
it is today and
how loss- making it would end up being
in 2026, only considering the natural runoff.
And then the other question I wanted to
raise is on the cost save. Just to
make sure I understand correctly.
So
you basically have already a target
of 3 billion cost saves on an annualized run
rate at the end of this year.
But this is compared to the end of
2022, I think. So, how much of
the annualized 3 billion do you kind
of
already have, you know,
in the 2Q accounts, please? Thank you.
19
Todd
Tuckner
Thanks, Flora. So, in terms of, I'll take,
maybe address the second point
first. In terms of the cost saves in the
– in terms of what we're projecting
by the end of the year at 3 billion. In terms
of what we see already in the
second quarter,
we haven't disclosed that specific number.
But I think from just the head count
reductions
that I mentioned in my remarks,
you could probably consider that
there's somewhere more
than, around half
has already started to hit through,
and what we're already
seeing in our underlying results.
In terms of our CET1 and how to think about
NCL as we go through the process.
For sure, NCL is, you know,
is going to be something that weighs down
on our CET1 naturally
Just given the fact that, you know,
we
have significant, at least over the 2024 to
2026 period.
If you just look at the natural profile
rundown, which
is effectively basis for how we started
thinking about the RoCET,1
not the only way we started to model
it,
but, for sure, one of the ways
that we were thinking about it. There's
a drag by definition in the sense that,
by the end of 2026, you could see in the
slide the natural profile has
roughly half going away.
Now, we can
model different scenarios as
can you, but we're not going to
discuss how we're thinking about
it and
obviously,
some of that is still very much unknown.
In terms of the cost takeout, we
would expect to be
taking out the lion's share of the
costs in non-core and legacy
by the time the integration is materially
complete, by definition. We will
do that. There’ll be, we expect
some residual carry that we'll
have to take on
or continue to run down beyond 2026. So,
there is some, if you will, negative
burn that is associated with
NCL in our modeling.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Good morning and thank you very much for the
presentation. I have two numbers
questions, please. So, the
first one is on capitalized software.
You
have taken these roughly 1.8 billion
of software impairments in the
PPA. Can
you give us a rough sense
of how much of a remaining amount
of capitalized software remains
in
your group accounts that relates
to CS? And is there a risk of further
impairments given that you want
to
retain only about 10% of these
systems?
And the second question relates
to your capital requirements.
So, you show still at 10.6% CET1
over risk-
weighted assets. If we were
to apply the current capital metrics
that is outlined in Swiss banking
law, what
would be the capital requirement
if there was no FINMA transitional
forbearance, please ? Thank you very
much.
Todd
Tuckner
Okay.
Thanks, Stefan. In terms of the capitalized
software, as you say,
1.8 billion was the amount that was
in
the Credit Suisse AG reported
number today.
I think in the PPA
number overall in total, there was
slightly
more about2 billion. You
can look at the CS, you know,
balance sheet from year end
or Q1, Q2, or sorry,
Q1
or year end and see, there
was capitalized software in the
neighborhood of 3 billion. So effectively
what we
have done is taken two-thirds
down and have one-third left
on a shorter economic useful life that
aligns with
how we think about: a), the time it's
going to take us to fully decommission everything
and b), leaving what
we think we still get value from
at the end. So, all that has been sort
of factored into the PPA.
So, I don't see
necessarily further impairments, but because
we now have just what's left, about
a 1 billion that will have a
shorter economic useful life, that aligns
to how we're thinking about
the restructuring.
20
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Stefan on CET1, I think when you look
at the fully implemented regime
in Switzerland which is not applicable
to us until 2027, it would be around
12.5%. 12-point-plus and that's you know
the reason why we raised
our
CET1 ratio was both to reflect, you
know, a buffer
there to accommodate for the
restructuring, but also is a
clear,
call it small, front running of what
we expect to come.
As a consequence of that, and
our, and
the
finalization of Basel III, which is partially
already in our books. So, you can
count on this number to be
calibrated with a pretty medium term,
medium to long-term expectation
of the current interpretation
of all
regulatory regimes worldwide,
including Switzerland.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you very much for taking my questions.
The first is on revenue cost synergies.
I mean, you had a
comment and especially if you think you
can keep this with market share
unchanged. Is it something you
really think maybe people get
overly concerned and you don't see quite that risk
of a revenue dissynergies
even if you potentially have to contract
some of this at bit more attractive
rates or incentivizing your advisors?
And then secondly,
on slide 16 where you show us
the return path and there's this
block about the funding
cost efficiencies. And that's something
you – I guess apart from the
drop out of the higher expense funding
at Credit Suisse, is there
other areas where you see
the material benefits from lowering
funding costs and
overall group benefits because this
block is the same size as the cost base
rightsizing? Obviously can maybe
elaborate a bit more on that area.
Thank you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Let me take the first question. First
of all, I haven't said that we will keep
our market share. I said that our
ambition is to keep the market share.
Now, having said
that, Credit Suisse lost their market
share and
business in the last 12 months or so.
So, what we count on is the fact that,
you know, we
will be able to recapture
and regain some of the market
share and what you saw lately
in the last couple of months is a good
sign of that. But, of course, we are
not,
we are realistic and we are
also factoring in that we may lose market
shares because some clients
may or may
not feel, you know,
that they want a certain concentration
of risk. So, you know,
there is no danger of us
budgeting or planning blue-sky scenarios
on that one. We are realistic,
but that should not be confused with
our desire to keep as much as
we can.
Todd
Tuckner
Anke, on the second, –the second
question in terms of material benefits, we
see you obviously highlighted
the most significant one, which will be
just the take out of the significant cost
that we were wearing in
connection with the PLB and the ELA+
facilities. But, I would say,
and, as I've remarked earlier,
that we expect
the positive contribution from the
Credit Suisse wealth management
franchise in our NII in 3Q and that
comes principally from having stabilized
the business and net new deposits that
are also helping on NII. So,
I
would say that's another factor that
is helping on the underlying profitability.
Benjamin Goy,
Deutsche Bank
Yes. Hi.
Good morning. Two
questions from my side. The first,
to play devil's advocate, are there
more
outflows to come or where you
kind of already had outflows from
clients, but maybe some longer-term
structures, partnerships or anything
like that take time to see the outflows?
And then secondly,
for the first time in a while, your
CET1 capital is higher than your tangible
book value or
21
almost the same. So now,
the 15% return on CET1, should
that also be broadly similar to
RoTE, going
forward, or should we expect
more moving parts towards
2026? Thank you very much.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Thank you. Let me take the first questions.
I guess, as I mentioned before,
now, we are
under wealth
management broader perimeter.
I think that, of course, we may still
have client advisors that resigned
over
the last three or four months
or that, as they move into a new
organization, they may be able to
bring some
assets with them. What we see right
now is clear that the ability of the
people that left a while ago to really
move assets is fairly limited. And this
is nothing new compared to what
UBS went through 10 years ago
or
more than 10 years ago in recognizing
that there is a lot of institutional
loyalty of the client base. And now
that we have stabilized the franchises, of
course, we are even stronger
in retaining assets. And as
I mentioned
before, our desires to re
-bring back assets. So, look, the movement,
the gross movements are
going to be
very difficult to predict, but
the net outcome we feel pretty
comfortable will be positive.
Todd
Tuckner
And Benjamin, in terms of the return
on CET1 versus RoTE impact, I'd say there
are two factors that do argue
in favor of moving in that direction,
just not yet but for sure on the
first one, the denominator effect
we’re
bigger and so that's obviously going to make
the difference between
the historic RoTE versus RoCET1 smaller,
by definition. So – and you know that
– so that denominator effect
is now in play and it is helpful as you
suggest probably as well, contributing
to what you observe.
The other one though which has been
our historic delta that really has
given us pause to move off of
what
we think is a more meaningful return
measure are DTAs.
But there of course, you know,
as they amortize
down, because these generally although
not exclusively but generally relate
to you know very old losses that
we're you know now you know
continuing to just chip away at as that
balance comes down, then that's yet
another factor that would argue in favor
of moving to the other measure.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Well, by the way,
for the foreseeable future
and from a the other angle
of measuring our capital return
flexibility,
the CET1 ratio is a better proxy
because this is the true binding constraint.
Benjamin Goy,
Deutsche Bank
Fair enough and very clear.
Thank you.
Amit Goel, Barclays
Hi. Thank you and thanks for a lot
of good information. The first question
was, I appreciate there's
a lot of
moving parts. We're going
to spend a bit of time trying to update
estimates and all that kind of stuff.
But in
terms of the path for the RoCET1 to
get to that kind of 15% 2026 exit rate,
are you able to give any color
in
terms of expectation for 2024, 2025,
or how you’d like it to trend?
And then secondly,
just on the costs. It'll be great
to get a bit more color on the
saving. So, I'm just kind of
curious things like, you know,
10 billion gross, but how much
net saving or how much reinvestment
of that
do you expect to do where
you found the incremental 2 billion
versus the 8 billion? And also, how
you're
spending, you know,
the 12 billion restructuring? Because
it does seem like, you know,
quite a big number.
So, you know, just
wondering if there could be
benefits there as well. Thank you.
22
Todd
Tuckner
Hey Amit. So, as mentioned in terms
of color,
further color on the trajectory as to
we get end of 2023 to end
of 2026, we'll come back on that to
provide an update in 3Q as to where
we are. But then, you know,
a
much more fulsome perspective
after our business planning processes
is complete by the end of the year
into
early next year.
In terms of the cost savings, you know,
Sergio also made, remarked
in his comments. The gross number
is
greater than 10 billion as you
highlight. But we will be making investments.
We're going to grow
our
business. We're going to
invest in technology.
We're going to, you know,
also deal with inflationary factors
if
need be. So, you know,
that's all in the thinking around
it, around half of the gross
cost saves relate to
effectively restructuring the
Credit Suisse IB and CRU units. And
the other half gross relates
to the synergies
we expect
to realize, but then that will
be – they'll be investments back into the
technology and the people to
grow the core franchises.
Andrew Lim, Société Générale
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions
and thanks for all the detail. So, firstly,
on the fair value
markdowns that you've taken there,
related to that, could you
give an idea of the maturity remaining
on
these financial assets and how we should
think about the reversal of those
markdowns? So, you've
highlighted more than 1.5 billion
for the second half of this year.
Is that the kind of run rate that we
should
be expecting going forward?
And then secondly,
on the NCL, perhaps I can ask it a
different way.
Do you have a better idea now of what
the ultimate cumulative losses might be from
the NCL? Would they
be less than the 5 billion maybe that you
might have been exposed to under the LPA
agreement? That's my question
there.
And then thirdly,
might I quickly ask, on the domestic
side, certainly for some businesses, you
will have a
significant market share. And
I wonder if there's any maybe
regulatory risk that that market share
might be
looked at and you'd be forced
to bring it down to a level which is more
palatable to the regulators. Thank
you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Yeah.
Because you asked three questions
instead of two, I'll take the last one.
On the market share one, as
you know, we got regulatory
approvals to basically not be subject
to any competitive constraints, and
that
was done just to secure and
be able to communicate and to be able
to place. Although it was already
crystal
clear as it is today that there is
no market share topics for the combined
unit in Switzerland.
I mean if you go across the board,
cantonal banks are larger on any
dimensions of relevant personal
and
commercial banking business in Switzerland.
And when you measure in
terms of branches, we are combined
the third largest player.
So, now this is very relevant
but because some people may argue,
well, these
cantonal banks are combined versus
you being one unit. Well, the
fact, the truth of the matter is that we
compete in those cantons with the local
cantonal banks. It's extremely
relevant to make that difference.
Therefore we will, of course,
contribute what the competitive authorities
have to say about it and put our
views into it. But I don't really expect
that on a fact based discussions we
will be subject to any limitation or
meaningful limitations in respect
of our activities going forward.
23
Andrew let me just unpack your first
and second, I think they're
related. So, on the first, you
know as we
highlighted earlier,
we took around 15 billion of
fair value marks on financial assets
and liabilities, 12.5 billion
where we indicated would pull to
par because they relate to accrual
accounted positions and another roughly
2.5 billion relate to fair value positions
where we had further markdown
in light of liquidity model risk other
type issues.
On the piece that pulls to par,
just keep in mind that 4 billion of that
12.5 relates to non-core
and legacy.
So
that's important to know and about 8.5
billion more in our core
businesses. On the core business
piece,
generally speaking, we see three
to four years that we should unwind
between 70% and 80%. There
will be
a longer tail especially on some fixed
rate loans that will go longer than
that. So, we'll see pull-to-par effects
that extend beyond the three-
to four-year timeframe. But most of
it will accrete to income over the shorter
timeframe, as I mentioned.
To
the NCL point though, since we have
roughly 4 billion of the pull-to-par
in NCL and roughly 2 billion in
the
fair value marks, so you have 5 to
6 billion of fair value adjustments in NCL.
And I think, to go to your second
question, that's important to understand
just given that we think that the
positions are appropriately
marked.
And from here, we will continue
to consider all our optionality in terms
of running down the portfolio, as
Sergio mentioned earlier,
in a most capital and cost efficient
way.
But we think the positions are
being carried
at appropriate levels presently.
Andrew Lim, Société Générale
That's great. That's really
helpful. Thanks.
Adam Terelak,
Mediobanca
Morning. Thank you for the questions. I want
to get under the hood a little bit more
in Wealth Management.
Firstly,
on the CS business acquired,
clearly there are some
business exits to worry about some
that you think
non-core in the kind of the
wealth management unit. Can you give
us a sense of what the revenue
attached
to that might look like. But also any detail
on AT1 cost
savings that come through
the NII in that division as
well.
And then secondly,
the competitive environment.
I noticed in your GWM business, UBS
standalone costs are
up on lower revenues. I just want
to know kind of what the cost
is to retain management at this point?
What
are you seeing the competitive landscape
on the RM side or the advisors side,
but also in your deposit side
what sort of campaigns have you been
running to re-attract deposits and
how easy or difficult has that
been
in the current rates and deposits environment?
Thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Thanks, Adam. On the second one, would
just say in terms of GWM costs. So,
there's very significant positive
operating leverage outside of the US, such
important to note this is in the GWM
– in the UBS subgroup
GWM, very significant positive operating
leverage. We were investing
for growth in that business.
But that
business as well has been, you know,
saw a strong NII performance
and had strong PBT growth
as I
highlighted in my comments earlier.
As I also highlighted, it's more
on the GWM overall side, just the fact
that we've seen a lot of cash sorting
and rotation on NII in the Americas
and that sort of pulled the Americas
revenue down reasonably
significantly.
So, quarter-on-quarter,
year-on-year.
And as a result, you know,
we see that negative operating
leverage, but we're continuing to
invest in that business across the
board and so some of that as
well,
contributes to the higher cost.
24
On your deposit campaign question I would
say that you know like any bank,
we value deposits, we value
deposits in the win-back context in wealth
management. We also just value
deposits to fund our business,
loan growth, et cetera, so there's
nothing I've seen that I would call out there
in terms of deposit betas that
have moved in a direction I would
consider to be anything other than
what we see across peers.
In terms of the acquired – you
were asking business exits and the
revenue attached. At this point,
we have in
terms of what's being expected to move
into non-core and legacy that
was highlighted on one of the earlier
slides. The revenue attached with
that business is less than 100 million
on an annualized basis in terms of net
revenues, in terms of what's moving
across. And that's of course
you know not risk-adjusted for – and so
that, that needs to be considered.
In terms of AT1
cost savings that hit through the
business from what had
been, say,
anything there has really
just been captured in the Credit
Suisse Corporate Center as an
offset
potentially to the inflated cost so I would
expect that that'll normalize now as you
know as the businesses
come together.
Adam Terelak,
Mediobanca
So, funding it seems that is in the corporate
center and not in the divisions?
Serio P.
Ermotti
Can you repeat? It wasn't clear.
Sorry.
Adam Terela
k, Mediobanca
So, any funding noise, AT1
versus liquidity facility resourced
out in the corporate center rather than
in-house?
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah. That
was our understanding from
Credit Suisse's practice pre-acquisition,
yes.
Adam Terelak,
Mediobanca
Okay.
Thank you.
Andrew Coombs, Citigroup
Good morning it’s Andrew Coombs from
Citi and thank you for taking my
questions. Two
if I may.
Firstly,
I
want to turn back to follow up on the PPA
pull-to-par bit in relationship
to the restructuring charges.
You
made this comment that, out of the period
at end of 2026, I think restructuring
charges will be largely but
not wholly offset by the PPA
pull-to-par effect. And then
in your later comments, you talked about
probably
0.5 billion of pull-to-
par effect, of which 4.5 would
be noncore, and that most of
that would be recognized
in a three-
to four-year timeframe.
So, can we assume restructuring
charges of the magnitude of 12.5?
And
can you give us a feel for the timing
of those relative to the PPA
pull-to-par?
And then the second question is on slide
- You
provide a useful quarterly trajectory
going from minus 0.3
billion in Q2 and you talked about breakeven
in Q3. But you also flagged 750 million
of savings, 550 million
of funding cost savings. There's
a 650 million arguably one-off
ECL charge on the non-credit
impaired CS
portfolio data this quarter.
So, just trying to understand the going from
minus 0.3 billion to 0, even with all
those additional benefits Q-on-Q, what's
the offset? I guess there'd
be some seasonality on revenue,
a bit of
a decline in NII. But any more
color there?
25
Todd
Tuckner
So, Andrew,
in terms of – I’ll take the second
point first – in terms of the story on the
underlying profitability,
yeah, I mean just be very clear that the
cost saves that we expect to see by
the end of 2023 of 3 billion, which
we think you can price into 2024, some
of that has been realized. But as
I would – the way I would think
about it is there is work that's ongoing
and we expect that the greater
than 3 billion number is something
that we'll see at the end of the year
hitting through. I would continue to
reemphasize the funding cost
point
that was in 2Q that will benefit 3Q and
fully in 4Q that helps. And then the
stabilization as flows and all that
will sort of hit through as we
go on an underlying basis. And as I said,
we expect to break even
in the third
quarter coming out of roughly a
300 million-
plus improvement. And then to
be positive in 4Q for the reasons
that I mentioned.
In terms of the restructuring you asked
about, we'll come back in further details
in terms of how much
restructuring specifically there'll
be. We're giving a perspective
that we expect the number to be
broadly
offset by the pull-to-par effects.
But at this point in time, we're
going to need to detail that out in the
business planning process and come
back, as we have said, with our fourth
quarter earnings.
Andrew Coombs
Thank you.
Vishal Shah, Morgan Stanley
Hi. Thank you so much for your questions.
My first one is on wealth management.
Just wanted to get a sense
on you know how you are
assessing you know the business overlaps
in that segment – in that segment
or
you've had you know further chance to sort
of you know look at you know different
regions and how to
respond to all the ongoing competitive
pressures and in terms of you
know relationship managers and
then
sort of bankers in that segment? So, if you
could give a bit of an update on
that side?
And then the second one is on the investment
bank, the CS non-core perimeter
of 55 billion. I know in one of
your slides have provided a natural run
-off rate, but I was just trying
to get a sense if you could provide
any
sort of color in terms of what is your
sort of ambition on actively winding
down this perimeter in terms of
timeline, i.e., could we expect you
know the next two years basically by
2025 you know broadly most
of this
run down to be done. Is that is that a fair
assumption or are you looking
at it in a bit of a different
way?
Thank you so much.
Todd
Tuckner
Hey,
Vishal. I mean I think on this on that
second question, we've addressed
that in the sense that you know
we offer the natural rundown just
given you know of course, we have
to take care and ensure
that we're
protecting our counterparties and
we're doing things in the
best interests of the firm and so
on these
positions that we, you know,
we will look – we will look strategically
to exit them as quickly as possible.
But
at this point, I would say,
we'll come back and give you progress
as we've done already in 2Q
in terms of the
actual RWA reduction
relative to the natural runoff
profile. We'll continue to
do that. And to the extent we
can give more color through
our planning process, we will.
But again, these are positions where
we think,
naturally,
there'll be strategic exits and
opportunities that arise and not something
we'll, I will be disclosing.
26
In terms of your first question on Wealth
Management and assessing business
overlaps, I mean, in general,
the way we approach the integration
is to look at Credit Suisse is adding
value in a lot of the areas
in which
we already operate. But also, as Sergio
mentioned, areas where
we have less of a presence.
Brazil was
mentioned. There are important
parts of the Middle East where that's
the case; important parts of Southeast
Asia. Also, much bigger in Europe
overall. So, in terms of assessing the
overlaps, I mean, in the end of the
day, relationship
managers have their client relationships
and we want to retain them
all. And of course,
we're looking at how to manage
the business in the most efficient
and effective way.
I would make one additional comment
which is very important, which is that
Iqbal had announced the area
market heads on a combined basis, and
that was very important just in the last
several weeks and was in
comments Sergio made as well, because when
we start integrating how we approach
the market and so
we're in the market on an integrated
basis, which, of course, just took time even
though we move quickly in
the two and a half months since we've
closed, to be in the market on
an integrated basis having market
heads that have now been decided across
wealth management on a combined and
integrated basis is quite a
step that helps us to manage some of
the business overlaps and competitive pressures
that you were asking
about.
Vishal Shah, Morgan Stanley
Okay.
Thank you so much.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Okay.
The last answer and questions and I'm sure
we're going to have a chance
to stay in touch between
now and November 7
th
when we announce the Q3 results.
For the time being, thank you for
dialing in.
Thanks for your questions. And well as
I say,
looking forward to staying in touch.
Thank you.
27
Cautionary Statement
Regarding Forward
-Looking Statements
|
This document
contains statements
that constitute
“forward-looking statements,”
including but not limited
to management’s outlook for
UBS’s financial performance, statements
relating to the anticipated
effect of transactions and
strategic
initiatives on UBS’s
business and future development and
goals or intentions
to achieve climate,
sustainability and other social
objectives. While
these
forward-
looking statements
represent UBS’s
judgments, expectations
and objectives concerning
the matters described,
a number
of risks, uncertainties
and other
important factors could cause
actual developments and results
to differ materially from
UBS’s expectations. The
Russia–Ukraine war continues to
affect global
markets, exacerbate
global inflation,
and slow global
growth. In
addition, the war
has caused significant
population displacement,
and shortages
of vital
commodities, including energy shortages
and food insecurity, and has
increased the risk of
recession in OECD
economies. The coordinated sanctions
on Russia
and Belarus, and
Russian and Belarusian
entities and nationals,
and the uncertainty
as to whether the
war will widen and
intensify,
may continue to have
significant adverse effects on the market and
macroeconomic conditions, including in ways that cannot be
anticipated. UBS’s acquisition of Credit Suisse has
materially changed our outlook and strategic direction and introduced new operational challenges. The integration of the Credit Suisse entities into the UBS
structure is expected to
take between three to
five years and
presents significant risks, including the
risks that UBS
Group AG may
be unable
to achieve
the cost
reductions and other benefits
contemplated by the transaction.
This creates significantly greater uncertainty
about forward-looking statements. Other factors
that may affect our
performance and ability to
achieve our plans,
outlook and other
objectives also include, but
are not limited
to: (i)
the degree
to which
UBS is
successful in the execution of
its strategic plans, including its
cost reduction and efficiency initiatives and
its ability to manage
its levels of risk-weighted assets
(RWA) and leverage ratio
denominator (LRD), liquidity coverage ratio
and other financial
resources, including changes in
RWA assets and liabilities
arising
from
higher market
volatility and
the size
of the combined
bank; (ii) the
degree to
which UBS
is successful
in implementing
changes to its
businesses to
meet
changing market, regulatory and other conditions, including as a
result of the acquisition of Credit Suisse; (iii) increased inflation and
interest rate volatility in
major markets; (iv) developments in the macroeconomic climate and in the
markets in which UBS operates or
to which it is exposed, including movements in
securities prices or
liquidity, credit spreads, currency exchange rates, deterioration or
slow recovery in
residential and
commercial
real estate
markets,
the effects
of economic conditions,
including increasing
inflationary pressures,
market developments,
increasing geopolitical
tensions, and changes
to national trade
policies on the financial
position or creditworthiness
of UBS’s clients and
counterparties, as well
as on client
sentiment and levels
of activity,
including the
COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken
to manage it, which
have had and may
also continue to have a
significant adverse effect on global and
regional
economic activity, including disruptions to global
supply chains and
labor market displacements; (v) changes
in the availability of
capital and
funding,
including
any adverse changes
in UBS’s credit
spreads and credit ratings
of UBS, Credit
Suisse, sovereign issuers, structured credit products
or credit-related
exposures,
as
well as availability
and cost of
funding to meet requirements for
debt eligible for total
loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC), in
particular in light of
the acquisition of
Credit Suisse; (vi) changes in central bank policies or the implementation of financial legislation and regulation in Switzerland, the US, the UK, the European
Union and other financial centers that have
imposed, or resulted in, or may
do so in the future, more stringent
or entity-specific capital, TLAC, leverage ratio,
net stable funding ratio, liquidity and
funding requirements, heightened operational resilience requirements, incremental tax requirements, additional levies,
limitations on permitted
activities, constraints on remuneration,
constraints on transfers of
capital and liquidity
and sharing of operational
costs across the
Group or other measures,
and the effect these
will or would have
on UBS’s business activities;
(vii) UBS’s ability to
successfully implement resolvability
and
related regulatory
requirements and
the potential need
to make further
changes to the
legal structure
or booking model
of UBS in
response to legal
and
regulatory requirements
and any additional
requirements due
to its acquisition of
Credit Suisse, or
other developments; (viii)
UBS’s ability to
maintain and
improve its systems and
controls for complying with sanctions
in a timely
manner and for the
detection and prevention of money
laundering to meet evolving
regulatory requirements
and expectations,
in particular
in current
geopolitical turmoil;
(ix) the uncertainty
arising from
domestic stresses
in certain
major
economies; (x) changes in UBS’s competitive position, including whether differences in regulatory capital and other requirements among the major financial
centers adversely affect UBS’s ability
to compete in certain lines of business;
(xi) changes in the standards of
conduct applicable to our
businesses that may
result from
new regulations
or new
enforcement
of existing
standards,
including
measures to
impose new
and enhanced
duties when
interacting with
customers and in
the execution and
handling of customer transactions;
(xii) the liability to which
UBS may be
exposed, or possible
constraints or sanctions
that
regulatory authorities might impose on
UBS, due to
litigation, contractual claims and
regulatory investigations, including the potential for
disqualification
from
certain businesses, potentially large
fines or monetary
penalties, or the
loss of licenses
or privileges as
a result of
regulatory or other governmental
sanctions,
as
well as the effect that litigation, regulatory and similar matters have on the
operational risk component of our RWA, including as a result of its acquisition of
Credit Suisse, as well as the amount of capital available for return to
shareholders; (xiii) the effects on
UBS’s business, in particular cross-border
banking, of
sanctions, tax
or regulatory
developments and
of possible
changes in
UBS’s policies
and practices;
(xiv) UBS’s ability
to retain
and attract
the employees
necessary to generate
revenues and to manage,
support and control its
businesses, which may
be affected by competitive
factors;
(xv) changes
in accounting
or
tax standards or policies,
and determinations or interpretations affecting the
recognition of gain or
loss, the valuation
of goodwill, the recognition of
deferred
tax assets and
other matters; (xvi) UBS’s ability
to implement new
technologies and business
methods, including digital services
and technologies,
and ability
to
successfully compete with both existing and new financial service providers, some
of which may not be regulated to the
same extent; (xvii) limitations on the
effectiveness of UBS’s
internal
processes for risk management,
risk control, measurement and modeling,
and of
financial
models
generally;
(xviii) the
occurrence
of operational failures, such as fraud, misconduct, unauthorized trading, financial crime, cyberattacks, data leakage and systems failures, the risk of which is
increased with cyberattack threats from both nation states and non-nation
-state actors targeting financial institutions; (xix) restrictions on the ability of UBS
Group AG to make
payments or distributions, including due to
restrictions on the ability of
its subsidiaries to make
loans or distributions, directly or indirectly,
or, in the case of financial difficulties, due
to the exercise by FINMA
or the regulators of UBS’s
operations in other countries of their
broad statutory powers in
relation to protective measures, restructuring and liquidation proceedings; (xx) the degree to which changes in regulation, capital or
legal structure, financial
results or other factors
may affect UBS’s
ability to maintain its
stated capital
return objective; (xxi) uncertainty over
the scope of
actions that
may be
required
by
UBS, governments and
others for UBS
to achieve goals
relating to climate,
environmental and
social matters, as
well as the evolving
nature of underlying
science and industry and the
possibility of conflict between different governmental
standards and regulatory regimes; (xxii) the ability
of UBS to access
capital
markets; (xxiii) the ability of UBS to successfully recover from a disaster or other business continuity
problem due to a hurricane, flood, earthquake, terrorist
attack, war, conflict (e.g., the Russia–Ukraine war), pandemic, security breach, cyberattack, power loss, telecommunications failure or other natural or man-
made event, including the
ability to function remotely
during long-term disruptions such
as the COVID-19
(coronavirus) pandemic; (xxiv) the level
of success
in
the absorption of
Credit Suisse, in
the integration of
the two groups
and their businesses,
and in the
execution of the
planned
strategy
regarding
cost reduction
and divestment of any non-core assets, the existing assets and liabilities currently
existing in the Credit Suisse Group, the level of resulting impairments
and
write-downs, the effect of
the consummation of the
integration on the
operational results, share price and
credit rating of UBS
– delays,
difficulties,
or failure
in
closing the transaction may
cause market disruption and
challenges for UBS
to maintain business,
contractual and
operational
relationships;
and (xxv)
the
effect
that these or
other factors or
unanticipated events, including media
reports and speculations, may
have on
our reputation
and the
additional
consequences
that
this may have
on our business
and performance. The sequence
in which the
factors above are presented is
not indicative of
their likelihood
of occurrence
or the
potential magnitude of their
consequences. Our business and
financial performance could be affected
by other factors identified
in our past
and future filings
and reports, including those
filed with the US Securities and Exchange
Commission (the SEC). More
detailed information about those
factors is set forth in
documents furnished by UBS and
filings made by UBS
with the SEC, including the
Annual Report on Form 20-F for
the year ended 31 December 2022.
UBS is
not under any
obligation to (and
expressly disclaims any obligation to)
update or alter
its forward-looking statements, whether as
a result of
new information,
future events, or otherwise.
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934, the registrants
have duly
caused this report to be signed on their behalf
by the undersigned, thereunto duly
authorized.
UBS Group AG
By:
/s/ David Kelly
_
Name:
David Kelly
Title:
Managing Director
By:
/s/ Ella Campi
_
Name:
Ella Campi
Title:
Executive Director
UBS AG
By:
/s/ David Kelly
_
Name:
David Kelly
Title:
Managing Director
By:
/s/ Ella Campi
_
Name:
Ella Campi
Title:
Executive Director
Credit Suisse AG
By:
/s/ Ulrich Körner
_____
Name:
Ulrich Körner
Title:
Chief Executive Officer
By:
/s/
Simon Grimwood
_
Name:
Simon Grimwood
Title:
Chief Financial Officer
Date:
September 1, 2023