6-K
UBS AG (AMUB)
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
_________________
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE
ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date: May 8, 2024
UBS Group AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-36764
UBS AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive offices)
Commission File Number: 1-15060
Credit Suisse AG
(Registrant's Name)
Paradeplatz 8, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-33434
Indicate by check mark whether the registrants file or will file annual
reports under cover of Form
20-F or Form 40-
F.
Form 20-F
☒
Form 40-F
☐
This Form 6-K consists of the transcripts of the 1Q24 Earnings call remarks
and Analyst Q&A, which
appear immediately following this page.
1
First quarter 2024 results
7 May 2024
Speeches by
Sergio P.
Ermotti
, Group Chief Executive Officer,
and
Todd
Tuckner
,
Group Chief Financial
Officer
Including analyst
Q&A session
Transcript.
Numbers for slides refer to the
first quarter 2024 results presentation. Materials and a
webcast
replay are available at
www.ubs.com/investors
2
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Slide 3 – Key messages
Thank you, Sarah and good morning,
everyone.
A little over a
year ago, we were
asked to play a
critical role in stabilizing
the Swiss and global
financial systems
through the acquisition of Credit Suisse and we are delivering on our
commitments.
This quarter marks the return to reported net
profits and capital accretion – a testament to the strength of
our
client franchises and significant progress on our integration
plans.
Reported net profit was 1.8
billion, with underlying PBT
of 2.6 billion and an
underlying return on CET1
capital
of 9.6%.
Our commitment to
stay close to
clients supported healthy
revenue growth
in our
core businesses
and flows
across
our
asset gathering
franchises. Meanwhile,
we are
executing
on
our
restructuring
plans at
pace
and
actively winding down Non-core and Legacy assets.
We also achieved another 1 billion in annualized run-rate gross cost
savings during the quarter as we progress
towards our 13 billion target.
As for the next significant
integration milestones, we
remain on track with our
plans to simplify our
legal entity
structure. The
merger of
our parent
banks is
expected by
the end
of May
and the
transition to
a single
U.S.
intermediate holding company is expected to occur
shortly thereafter. The merger of our Swiss bank entities is
set to take place before the end of the third quarter. All of this is subject to final regulatory approvals.
These critical milestones will facilitate
the migration of clients onto
UBS platforms beginning later this
year and
unlock the next phase
of the cost, capital,
funding and tax benefits
from the second half of
2024, and more so
by the end of 2025 and into 2026.
Lastly, improvements in our CET1 capital ratio was supported by our optimization
of risk weighted assets. As a
consequence, we remain well positioned to deliver
on our capital return targets this year.
Slide 4 – Strong financial performance in 1Q24 with
significant operating leverage
Our underlying financial performance was
driven by significant positive
operating leverage at the
Group level
with 15% revenue
growth alongside a
5% reduction in
operating expenses compared
to the fourth
quarter.
Compared to a year ago, we reduced operating
expenses by around 12%.
We had
excellent performance in
Global Wealth Management
as underlying PBT
doubled sequentially to
1.3
billion. Personal &
Corporate Banking delivered
underlying profit growth
quarter on quarter
driven by higher
revenues and
lower credit
loss expenses.
Meanwhile, Asset
Management posted
solid results
thanks to
cost
discipline.
As a result of the restructuring efforts we have undertaken
over the last nine months, I am particularly
pleased
that Credit Suisse’s Wealth Management, Swiss Bank
and Asset Management franchises are now
all profitable
and contributed to our financial performance.
The
Investment
Bank
delivered
a
double-digit
underlying
return
on
attributed
equity
supported
by
lower
operating expenses compared to Q4, and another strong
quarter in Global Banking revenues.
Lastly, we had a positive revenue
contribution from Non-core
and Legacy as
we accelerated position
exits while
further reducing costs.
3
Slide 5 – Continued franchise strength and client
momentum
While
we continue
to deliver
on
the integration,
helping our
clients manage,
grow
and
protect their
assets
remains our top priority.
We
maintained
our
momentum
with
clients
in
GWM.
Invested
assets
have
now
surpassed
4
trillion
as
we
generated 27 billion of net new assets.
Though
geopolitical
volatility
and
macroeconomic
uncertainty
continued
to
weigh
on
client
sentiment,
we
observed an improvement in risk appetite and activity.
We also saw an improvement in client activity within
P&C, particularly among corporates.
In
Asset
Management,
our
clients
continue
to
value
our
Separately
Managed
Account
and
Sustainability
offerings. We generated 21 billion in net new money
during the quarter.
In
Global
Banking,
we
outperformed the
fee
pools
in
all
regions,
but
most
notably
in
the
U.S.,
where
the
integration of Credit Suisse teams is progressing well and our pipeline
continues to build.
Slide 6 – Accelerated cost and balance sheet
reductions in Non-core and Legacy
Let’s move to Non-core and Legacy.
As I
said before,
and you
can see
on this
slide, we
are making
good progress
in taking
out costs
and streamlining
our operations as we run down the portfolio.
We accelerated the
wind-down of
several complex
and longer-dated positions
this quarter, supporting a
capital
release of around 2 billion and a material improvement in our natural
run-off profile.
We are well
positioned to achieve our target
to reduce NCL risk
weighted assets to around 5%
of the Group
by the
end of
2026 and
we remain
focused on
accelerating position
exits in
a manner
that continues
to optimize
value.
Slide 7 – Reinforcing our balance sheet for all seasons
through active management
Turning
to
capital.
As
you
can
see,
the
combination
of
our
highly
capital
generative
business
and
the
restructuring
and
active
management of
financial resources
has
further reinforced
our
balance sheet
for all
seasons.
This permits us to follow through on our capital return plans for 2024.
During the quarter, we began accruing
for a mid-teen percentage year-on-year increase in our dividend. And, as previously communicated,
we expect
to resume share repurchases following the completion of the parent bank merger, targeting up to 1 billion.
Our ambition is to continue repurchases in
2025 and for our capital returns in 2026 to
exceed pre-acquisition
levels.
Of
course,
all
of
this
is
now
subject
to
our
assessment
of
any
proposed
requirements
related
to
Switzerland’s ongoing review of its regulatory regime.
In this respect, I’d like to address the recent proposals in Switzerland
to strengthen the too-big-to-fail regime.
It is clear
both to us
and several
expert groups that
too-low capital requirements
were not why
Credit Suisse
needed rescuing.
However,
we agree with the Swiss Federal Council’s view that capital and
liquidity requirements on their own
are not sufficient to ensure the resilience and stability of a systemically
important bank.
4
In addition to having a strong
capital position, it is key to
maintain a sustainable business model centered
around
risk-adjusted
profitability
and a robust
risk management
framework.
All of these
are core principles
for UBS.
For over
ten years,
this approach
has served
our clients,
employees, investors and
the Swiss
economy well.
It is
what allowed
UBS to
respond to
the Swiss
government’s request
in March
2023 to
be part
of the
solutions to
stabilize the financial system.
While
some
modifications
to
the
regulatory
regime
may
be
necessary
-
and
we
have
endorsed
many
-
the
discussion around
capital should be based
on facts. That includes
a full and transparent account
of what led to
the idiosyncratic
failures of
Credit Suisse.
The ultimate
and crucial
objective of
the too-big-to-fail
regime must
be to
credibly demonstrate
that a
systemically
important
bank could
be saved
in a crisis
largely through
its own financial
resources.
We believe UBS
has and will
continue to
demonstrate
its resolvability
from both an operational
and capital
point
of view. With around 200
billion in total loss
absorbing capacity, our
shareholders
and structurally
subordinated
bondholders bear
the significant
costs and
risks to
ensure taxpayers
would not
suffer in
the highly
unlikely scenario
that a major systemic event affects UBS.
We appreciate that
many of you
would like a
quantification of the
potential impact of
any new capital
regime,
but it is too soon to jump to conclusions. It would be inappropriate for us to speculate
or respond to speculation
on the
potential impact.
We were
not involved
in the
consultation process
leading to
the publication
of the
Federal
Council’s
report, and
do not have
clarity on
any proposed
changes
and how
they would
be implemented.
Nonetheless,
one point on which
we may offer some
clarification
is the topic of
parent bank capital.
Our parent
bank was already well
capitalized in both absolute and relative terms and
is in
a position today to
absorb the
removal of
substantial
regulatory
concessions
granted to
Credit Suisse.
By fully aligning
the treatment
of capital at
Credit Suisse
to our more rigorous
approach, UBS has
to provide the
additional
capital
required
for
the
phase-in
of risk-weighted
assets
for
Credit
Suisse
participations.
UBS
had
already
done
this
for
its
subsidiaries
when
the
rules
were
introduced
in 2017.
Further, UBS
will
not
rely
upon
the
regulatory
filter historically
applied to Credit
Suisse. Overall,
this requires additional
capital in the
amount of about
9 billion
dollars.
When applied
consistently
and coherently, the
Basel 3
rules that
UBS and
its global
peers must
follow are
robust.
They too, are being significantly tightened. In addition, the phasing-in of progressive capital add-ons will already
lead to
substantially
higher capital
requirements
for UBS’s
parent bank,
about another
10 billion.
So overall, we
are adding almost 20
billion in additional capital which, of course, was
already reflected in our
previously communicated capital and financial targets.
In our view, all of this must
be considered when
new requirements
are discussed,
defined and
calibrated.
In this
respect, we will be constructively contributing
our views to the relevant authorities and various
policymakers.
As
the third-largest private
employer,
one of
the country’s largest
taxpayers and
as importantly,
a
significant
provider of credit to households and
businesses in Switzerland, we believe it
is also our responsibility to share
our
perspectives with the wider public.
This is
an important
discussion
for the
country
and I remain
hopeful for
a proportionate
outcome.
In the meantime, in addition to executing on our integration plans, we will remain focused on what
we are able
to control –
serving our
clients, following
through on
our strategy, investing
in our people
and remaining
a pillar
of economic support in the communities where
we live and work.
With that,
I hand over
to Todd.
5
Todd
Tuckner
Slide 9 – Return to reported profitability of 1.8bn with
underlying PBT 2.6bn
Thank you Sergio, and good morning
everyone.
Before I
begin, I would
offer a
reminder that
the first quarter
financial report published
today includes select
inter-divisional changes
we signaled
last year. We shifted
the Swiss
high-net worth
segment from
P&C to
GWM,
and
pushed-out
residual,
centrally-held
costs
and
financial
resources
to
our
business
divisions,
ultimately
increasing the equity we allocate to them.
These divisional shifts
support continued
resource discipline and
accountability. They also align with
interests of
shareholders by
reflecting Group
performance as
a whole
through the
reporting lens
of the
respective individual
businesses.
In my
remarks today,
I will
refer to
underlying numbers in
US dollars and
compare them to
our performance
last quarter, unless stated otherwise.
As illustrated on Slide 9, our financial performance this quarter reflects strength in our core
businesses as well
as
excellent
progress
across
our
integration
workstreams,
resulting
in
substantial
reductions
in
operating
expenses and risk-weighted assets.
Profit before tax increased significantly to 2.6 billion from strong operating leverage quarter-on-quarter driven
by higher revenues and lower costs, both of which I
will cover in more detail shortly.
Net credit loss expenses declined by 30 million this
quarter to 106 million.
On
a
reported
basis, the
first quarter
net profit
was
1.8 billion,
including a
tax expense
of 0.6
billion.
The
effective
tax
rate
for
the
quarter
was
26%,
lower
than
previously
guided,
primarily
due
to
the
strong
performance in Non-core and Legacy that reduced the
level of losses in select Credit Suisse legal entities.
We expect the effective tax rate
in the second quarter to return
to more elevated levels from higher forecasted
losses in these entities
before the first of the
planned mergers takes
place later this month.
We then expect the
Group’s effective tax rate
in the second
half of 2024 to
continue to normalize,
ultimately falling to
its structural
level of 23% by 2026, driven by further legal
entity optimization and cost elimination.
Slide 10 – Strong underlying revenues, up 15% QoQ
Total
revenues,
on
slide
10,
increased
by
15%
to
12
billion
with
strong
sequential
gains
in
Global
Wealth
Management, the Investment
Bank and Non-core and Legacy.
The latter included a
gain from the close-out of
the main
aspects of
the transaction relating
to the
former Credit
Suisse Securitized Products
business, which
was announced earlier in the quarter.
Partially offsetting our top line performance was a decline of 446 million in Group
Items, driven primarily from
hedging P&L reflecting higher interest rates and widening
currency basis spreads in the quarter.
Total
reported
revenues
reached
12.7
billion,
which
included
0.8
billion
from
purchase
price
allocation
adjustments in
our
core
businesses.
Since
the Credit
Suisse
acquisition, these
adjustments total
3.1 billion,
excluding the effects in
NCL, and mainly relate
to loans that will
pull-to-par if held to
maturity.
We continue
to expect to report additional revenues of
around 7.4 billion through the end
of 2028 from these acquisition-
related effects, of which 0.6 billion is expected in the second quarter.
6
Slide 11 – Executing on cost ambitions with operating
expenses down 5% QoQ
Moving to slide 11. Operating expenses for the Group decreased by 5% quarter-on-quarter to 9.2 billion with
the largest reductions in Non-core and Legacy, Global Wealth Management, and the Investment Bank.
Personnel costs
excluding variable
and Financial
Advisor compensation
decreased by around
120 million,
or 3%
quarter-on-quarter.
Variable and FA
compensation expenses were up 11% sequentially on the
back of higher
revenues. Overall, personnel expenses increased by 2%.
There were
almost 2 thousand
fewer total staff
at the end
of the first
quarter when compared
to the end
of
the fourth quarter of 2023,
and over 19 thousand fewer
versus the end of 2022, down
12.5% over the past 5
quarters.
Non-personnel
expenses
were
down
0.6
billion
quarter-on-quarter,
driven
by
lower
real
estate
expenses
combined with a reduction in third party spend.
Additionally, the fourth quarter contained charges for the
UK
bank levy and the US FDIC special assessment
that were not present in our first quarter performance.
Integration-related expenses in
the first
quarter were
1 billion,
split roughly
half-half between personnel
and
non-personnel costs, resulting in reported operating expenses
of 10.3 billion.
Slide 12 – Cost plans on track with 50% of
targeted saves expected by 2024 exit
rate
On slide 12,
we report on
the progress
against our cost ambitions
as described during the
investor update in
February.
Exiting the first quarter, we realized an
additional 1 billion
in gross cost saves when
compared to the
2023 exit rate.
Since the end of
2022, we have achieved
5 billion in gross
saves, or nearly 40%
of our 2026
exit-rate ambition of 13 billion.
As I highlighted in February, we expect our
integration work to intensify
over the next several, pivotal
quarters.
This will require appropriate staff levels to ensure efficient, effective and well-controlled execution.
Accordingly,
the pace of gross cost saves is likely to decelerate from the run rate savings output achieved over
the last 5 quarters, with another 1.5 billion in gross cost saves
expected by the end of the year.
Following this
intensive phase, we continue to expect the pace
of gross saves to pick up again in 2025.
Integration-related expenses
linked
to our
cost-saving actions
reached
a
total
of 5.5
billion
since the
Credit
Suisse acquisition, including the 1 billion
incurred in the first quarter.
As previously
mentioned, we expect
to incur
around 13
billion of
integration-related expenses by
the end
of
2026, or
a ratio of
about 1-to-1
between costs-to-achieve
and gross saves.
As these
integration charges
enable
and unlock future cost
reductions, we expect them
to outpace gross saves
through the rest
of 2024, totaling
3.5 billion, of which we estimate 1.3 billion in
the second quarter.
Of course,
what matters
is turning
gross saves
into clear
progress in
our underlying
opex performance.
Our
1Q24
underlying
operating
expenses
of
9.2
billion
signal
a
significant
improvement
against
our
2022
benchmark,
meaning
a
majority
of
the
gross
cost
saves
we’ve
realized
to
date
have
translated
into
net
reductions in our underlying opex.
Thus far,
most of these life-to-date net
saves benefit Non-core and
Legacy.
I highlighted in February
that we
expect around
half of
the Group’s
planned gross
cost saves,
and a
considerable majority
of net
saves, to
be
achieved from
running down NCL’s
book as
well as
eliminating expenses associated
with maintaining Credit
Suisse’s many legal entities and branches.
We are seeing this dynamic reflected in our cost performance.
We
also expect NCL to benefit further from
the upcoming legal entity mergers and from
continued position exits,
working towards a 2026 opex exit rate of less than
1 billion.
7
Finally, in our core businesses, we expect to realize a
significant portion of
integration cost synergies
beginning
in 2025
when client
accounts and
positions are
moved to
UBS platforms
and applications, and
Credit Suisse
infrastructure is shut down.
Slide 13 – Global Wealth Management
Moving on
to the
quarterly performance
of our
business divisions
and starting
with Global
Wealth Management
on
slide
13.
In
the
quarter,
GWM’s
pre-tax
profit
doubled
to
1.3
billion
on
stronger
revenues
and
lower
operating expenses.
Notably,
on a
combined basis, PBT
increased by
around 20%
year-over-year,
with the Credit
Suisse platform
returning firmly to profitability.
Overall,
we
see
very
good
client
momentum
across
GWM,
with
net
new
assets
of
27
billion
and
strong
contributions from the
Americas, Switzerland, and
APAC.
Net new
fee generating assets
reached almost 18
billion from healthy net inflows to SMAs in the
US and discretionary mandates in EMEA and Switzerland.
The business achieved this flow performance while focusing
on financial resource efficiency and balance sheet
management, seeking
to reprice
loans with
sub-hurdle returns
or to
otherwise exit
such positions.
This ongoing
work mitigates some of
the headwinds from
inherited Credit Suisse
risk models and led
to a decline
in credit
and counterparty risk RWAs
of 4 billion
in the quarter.
We’ve also begun
to see progress
in GWM’s revenue-
over-RWA metric, particularly on the Credit Suisse platform.
GWM
also
attracted
8
billion
in
net
new
deposits
in
the
quarter
while
our
pricing
increasingly
reflects
the
Group’s strong liquidity profile and tighter funding spreads.
I would note that we estimate seasonal tax-related outflows in
our US business in the mid-to-high single-digit
billions as a headwind to divisional net new asset
performance in the second quarter.
Now, onto GWM’s financials.
Revenues increased by 10% sequentially
with improvements across all lines,
driven by higher client activity
and
increased
average-asset
levels.
Revenue
performance
related
to
client
transactional
activity
was
particularly
strong across the business.
NII increased by 4% sequentially to 1.6 billion, as higher revenues from re-investments as well as increased US
dollar deposit rates and volumes offset the effects of tapering
deposit mix shifts and client deleveraging.
In the second quarter,
we expect a low-to-mid, single-digit percentage decline in GWM NII due to moderately
lower lending
and deposit
volumes, and
lower interest
rates in Switzerland,
partly offset
by additional
revenues,
primarily from higher US dollar rates combined with
our repricing efforts.
For the full
year 2024, we
expect NII in
GWM to be
roughly flat versus
4Q23 annualized. Specifically,
we see
NII
and
margins
holding
broadly
steady
in
2H24,
and
after
the
second
quarter
broadly
reverses
out
the
sequential gains we realized this quarter.
This outcome, which models three US dollar rate cuts, is helped by lower
funding costs as well as our balance
sheet initiatives.
Recurring net fee income
increased by 4% to 3 billion
in the quarter from higher
client balances and inflows
in
net new
fee-generating assets.
This
was partly
offset by
margin
compression from
more
of the
back
book
reflecting greater penetration into lower margin mandates
across higher wealth bands.
8
Transaction-based
income increased
by
a
third
sequentially to
1.2 billion,
driven by
higher trading
volumes,
particularly in structured
products, partly
due to
the seasonal increase
in client
activity levels, with
significant
improvements across all regions.
Combined transaction revenues were also 9% higher year-over-year.
Our APAC franchise had a particularly impressive transaction
revenue quarter, doubling from 4Q with strength
demonstrated across all
product classes, despite
the economic uncertainties
weighing on sentiment
for most of
the first quarter.
We also
saw positive momentum in
the Americas, where
the introduction of
our international model of
joint
coverage of GWM clients
with the IB, led to
transaction-based revenue gains
of 11% quarter-on-quarter
and a
mid-teens increase year-on-year.
Expenses for
the
quarter were
down
3%
sequentially,
mainly from
decreases
in
salaries
and
non-personnel
costs, and
with non-recurring
items in
the fourth
quarter falling
away,
outweighing increases
this quarter
in
variable and Financial Advisor compensation.
Slide 14 – Personal & Corporate Banking (CHF)
Turning
to Personal
and Corporate
Banking on
slide 14.
With good
momentum and
the front
office teams
now more closely aligned to strengthen client engagement, P&C
increased pre-tax profit by 11%
sequentially
to 774 million Swiss francs, its highest
PBT since before the Credit Suisse acquisition.
Revenues were up by 4% with gains across each
significant revenue line, further supported by a 47% decline
in credit loss expense quarter-on-quarter.
Deposit balances in Swiss franc terms remained roughly stable, with inflows in personal banking largely offset
by outflows
in corporate
balances with
lower liquidity
value.
This was
a strong
outcome considering
the current
rates environment in Switzerland and the ongoing
work in the business to gain share of wallet
and to improve
balance sheet efficiency, supporting our net interest margin in 1Q.
NII
increased
by
3% sequentially
to 1.1
billion,
principally as
higher re
-investment income
more
than
offset
declines in revenue from lower lending volumes and ongoing
deposit mix shifts.
In the
second quarter, we expect
a mid-to-high
single-digit percentage
decrease in
P&C’s NII
in US dollars,
more
than offsetting the
first quarter’s sequential gains,
especially as the effects
of the Swiss
central bank’s March
interest rate cut hit through for a full quarter.
For the
full year
2024, we
likewise expect
a mid-to-high
single-digit percentage
decline in
P&C’s NII
versus 4Q23
annualized.
We see
NII
holding broadly
steady in
US dollar
terms in
2H24, as
P&C’s balance
sheet management
efforts to
improve loan margins
help to
mitigate lower
loan and
deposit volumes,
as well
as the
modeled effects
of
two
further
25
basis-point
rate
cuts
in
Switzerland.
The
outlook
also
includes
a
50
million
annualized
headwind from the effects of higher minimum reserve requirements at the Swiss
central bank.
Transaction-based
revenues
were
up
9%
in
the
quarter
principally
on
strong
corporate
client
engagement.
Recurring net fee
income gained 5%
sequentially on higher
client asset balances
supported by net
new inflows
in the quarter.
Credit
loss
expense
was
39
million
as
PPA
adjustments
offset
a
similar
level
of
charges
on
impaired
loans
acquired from Credit Suisse.
Operating expenses were up 4% quarter-on-quarter, principally due
to higher staff costs in Switzerland and a
lease accounting credit recorded in the comparable quarter..
9
Slide 15 – Asset Management
As illustrated
on slide
15, underlying
PBT in
Asset Management
decreased by
2% quarter-on-quarter to
182
million, as lower revenues were only partially offset by reduced operating expenses.
While net management
fees were steady quarter-on
quarter, the sequential drop in the top
line is explained by
fourth quarter
revenues, which
included the
gain from
the sale
of an
investment stake, as
well as
seasonally
higher performance fees.
Net new money
in the quarter
was 21 billion due
to several big-ticket
inflows in mainly
passive equity and
fixed
income
funds,
including
money
markets.
We
also
continue
to
see
client
demand
for
SMA,
sustainable
investments and our Private Markets capabilities.
Opex
decreased
by
7%
to
594
million,
mainly
from
lower
personnel, technology
and
litigation
costs.
As
I
highlighted during
the investor
update in
February, we aim
to improve
operating leverage
in Asset
Management
by focusing
on cost
optimization across
the entire division
and realizing synergies
from migration
of clients
onto
UBS infrastructure over the course of 2025.
Slide 16 – Investment Bank
On to
our Investment
Bank’s performance
on slide
16.
As in
prior quarters,
we compare
the results
of the
combined IB with standalone UBS performance
on a year-on-year basis.
Operating
profit
was
404
million,
marking
the
IB’s
first
profitable
quarter
since
the
acquisition,
and
broad
completion of the
restructuring of the
parts of Credit
Suisse’s IB that
are core to our
own.
Return on
attributed
equity also turned positive and reached 10% for
the quarter.
Underlying revenues increased by 4%
to 2.5 billion.
Underscoring our efforts to increase the
IB’s market share
in the US, the IB’s top line increased by 29% in the region.
Banking maintained
its strong
momentum with
overall revenues
up by
52%.
Notably, we also
increased market
share in the US,
where Banking now
contributes a third
of total IB
revenues, up from
less than 20%
a year ago.
We continue
to be
pleased with our
performance in Capital
Markets, up 85%
year-over-year,
as LCM,
DCM
and ECM all saw increased activity levels, building
on the momentum we saw in the fourth
quarter.
Advisory revenues increased by 11% as we continue to outperform the global fee pool.
The recovery in M&A
is continuing, particularly in
the US, albeit with more subdued
client sentiment and activity
in APAC, where we
have a large share of the market.
With our Banking
coverage teams now
fully integrated, our
pipeline offers
encouraging revenue potential
in
the second half of 2024 and into 2025.
Revenues
in
Markets
declined 5%
to
1.9
billion, but
were
up
6%
year-over-year
in
the Americas.
Equities
revenues, driven
by Cash
Equities, were
up 3%.
FRC, where
we remain
underweight by
design, was
down
21% with both Rates and FX affected by lower volatility
and decreased client activity.
Operating expenses rose
8%, predominantly from additional
costs related to personnel
onboarded from Credit
Suisse’s investment
bank, but,
importantly,
dropped 4%
sequentially,
while revenues
were up
32% quarter-
on-quarter.
10
Slide 17 – Non-core and Legacy
Moving to Slide 17. Non-core
and Legacy’s pre-tax profit in the quarter
was 197 million, supported
by 1 billion
in revenues principally from gains on position exits.
In addition to the securitized products transaction I mentioned
earlier,
the business recognized proceeds from
the close-out of
several complex
and longer-dated positions above
their book carrying
amounts, including
in its
conduit and corporate loan books and within
its longevity portfolio.
Despite the strong revenue performance in the
first quarter, we continue to expect the NCL book to ultimately
close out across its various positions at more or less their current carrying values, meaning it is still appropriate
to assume revenues of nil going forward, net of hedging
and funding costs.
It is also
important to reiterate
that, in pursuit
of our priorities
in NCL, we
may at times
sacrifice P&L on
position
exits to eliminate costs and release sub-optimally deployed
capital.
Nevertheless, given the strong revenue performance in 1Q along with the significant progress
we’ve made on
costs, we now
expect NCL’s
full-year 2024 underlying
PBT to be
a loss of
around 2.5 billion
versus the expected
4 billion loss we signaled in Februar
y.
As Sergio highlighted, we
made substantial progress
in reducing the
NCL portfolio in
the quarter,
decreasing
RWAs by
16 billion,
principally in
credit and
market risk.
In just
nine months, we’ve
run down
28 billion,
or
almost a third, of NCL’s risk weighted assets.
From an LRD perspective, the overall portfolio is down by roughly half from 2Q23, after a further reduction of
49 billion in the first quarter.
As I covered earlier, a significant portion of the Group’s
overall opex decline this quarter
was delivered by NCL,
which saw
a 26%
sequential drop
in underlying
costs to
769 million,
primarily due
to lower
third party,
real
estate, and technology costs.
Slide 18 – Significant progress in reducing financial resource consumption
Moving to capital and financial resources on slide 18.
CET1 capital was broadly flat in the quarter with profits
generated in 1Q offsetting our dividend accruals and
1.3 billion in negative currency translation effects.
As we’ve
highlighted, we
made significant
progress
this quarter
in reducing
financial resource
consumption
across the bank from both the active run-down of NCL as well as balance sheet management
initiatives across
the core businesses.
This resulted in a 4% sequential decline in RWA and a 6% reduction in
LRD.
Credit and counterparty risk RWAs dropped
by 11 billion from position sales and roll
-offs, as well as from risk
model
mitigation,
with
currency
effects
contributing
another
11
billion
to
the
quarter-on-quarter
decline.
Market risk RWAs increased by 3 billion as asset-size decreases were
more than offset by the effects of model
updates from the integration of time decay into
our VaR calculations.
Slide 19 – Confidence in our balance sheet for
all seasons enables efficient funding
Slide 19 illustrates our strong capital position with a
CET1 capital ratio of 14.8%, increasing by 40 basis
points
over the course of 1Q.
As previously highlighted,
a surplus above
our CET1 capital
ratio target of
around 14% is necessary
to cater for
expected volatility in our reported profitability as we execute
on the various phases of the integration.
11
Our LCR at quarter end was 220%, reflecting
ample levels of liquidity to remain compliant
with the new Swiss
liquidity ordinance that went live at the start of the year.
We
remain
focused on
raising
stable
deposits
with
tenors,
products
and
counterparty selection
resulting
in
higher liquidity value.
And, we continue to apply discipline on pricing.
Strong
investor demand
for
our
name
in
capital markets
and
improving
conditions allowed
us
to
complete
nearly
half
of
our
full-year
funding
plan
during
the
first
quarter.
We
successfully
placed
over
5
billion
in
attractively-priced HoldCo in
January, and 1.5 billion in AT1 across two transactions in February
at spreads that
were around 100 basis points inside our heavily subscribed
November placement.
Similarly,
secondary market
spreads
continued to
tighten post-acquisition,
having now
dropped
to February
2023 levels, and
together with ongoing
diversification of
our funding sources,
are supporting our
plan to lower
funding costs by around 1 billion by 2026.
As part
of the
broadening out
of our
funding sources,
we structured
two first-of-their-kind
transactions for
UBS, including an
issue of 1
billion in euro
-denominated covered bonds, and
a private placement
for size via
repo of a portion of our portfolio of Swiss franc-denominated
covered bonds.
I would highlight
that these trades
were priced below
the spread on
the outstanding ELA line
with the Swiss
central bank.
As to
ELA,
we have
now repaid
29 billion
of this
line extended
to Credit
Suisse pre-acquisition,
including 9
billion Swiss francs just yesterday.
We expect to repay the remaining 9 billion in the coming months.
Overall,
our
balance
sheet
management
initiatives,
together
with
actions
on
the
funding
side
that
I
just
described, improved
our loan
to deposit
ratio this
quarter and
narrowed the
funding gap
we inherited
from
Credit
Suisse.
Importantly,
our
efforts
are
helping
us
to
offset
NII
headwinds,
and
are
contributing
to
the
strength of our overall liquidity and funding profile.
With that, let’s open for questions.
12
Analyst Q&A (CEO
and CFO)
Alastair Ryan, Bank of America
Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. A billion dollar beat in the quarter. I never did quite get the hang of
forecasting lark. Just on that then -- so non-core, very strong performance
and appreciate the updated runoff
profile you give us on slide 6. Is there any reason that you're just reverting to natural
runoff or can we expect
continued sales if markets stay favorable because
clearly there's quite a meaningful driver of the
very
favorable capital ratio and the interactions of all
of those.
And then secondly, the project to improve the revenue to risk-weighted assets in wealth management, are
presumably, you wouldn't represent the Q1 performances kind of the payoff of that project is? It's too early
but just what's the profile of that project? How long is
that repricing sitting on the net new asset generation
and has it started? Thank you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Alastair, before I pass to Todd,
I wanted to -- you were the first to ask the question
not by coincidence since I
understand it's your last day at the office, so.
Alastair Ryan, Bank of America
Yes, yes. Thank you, Sergio.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Well, enjoy -- enjoy your time off going forward. So, I'll pass it over to
Todd. Thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Hey, Alastair.
Thanks for the questions. So on NCL,
I mean first reverting to natural runoff. I mean, we've
been consistent in just reflecting the natural runoff profile. What
I think the slide 6 really does indicate is, it
really narrows that, that delta between where we started, you know, as you can see where we set
our
ambition is to reduce to 5% and, you know, that the natural runoff profile has really come
in.
You see that the delta between the natural runoff profile and where we, our ambition is narrowed. So that
should, eliminate whatever uncertainty
was considered, but I do think that it's appropriate still to
reflect it
that way in terms of, you know, whether we can do more of course we're going
to continue to do what we
can.
We'll try to position -- we'll try to exit positions, at
or above their, their book values wherever possible. But,
you know, it's appropriate to continue to stick with our guidance on NCL,
in terms of, you know, our
approach, and in terms of our expectations around revenues.
On GWM in terms of revenue over the RWA, I mentioned that we're starting
to see progress, which of course
does suggest you asked, has it started and it has.
In fact, it started at the end of last year and
the business is
quite active in it.
And, and so, we would expect that we're going to
continue to make progress on driving up RWA efficiency
with respect to revenues in that respect over the course of the
next couple of years. You asked how long that
will impact. How long will it go? How long will
it impact net new assets? We said, it's going to
take the better
part of two years which is why we guided net
new assets of around 200 billion over that two-year
timeframe.
And we think that's the appropriate guidance still.
13
Alastair Ryan, Bank of America
Okay. Thank you. And Sergio, thank you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Sure. Pleasure.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Yeah. So two for me, by the end of the year, I guess, you'll be effectively halfway through the integration
process in terms of gross savings. So as you get through that process, are you starting
to get a better picture
of what you could expect for the net savings
figure in relation to the 13 billion? Todd, I think you mentioned
the majority earlier. And does that change at all the phasing of the multi-year return
on core tier 1 path you
laid out the full year?
And then second question. Sergio, you referenced earlier that
insufficient capital didn't cause the collapse of
CS and I guess, in the final instance, what
we really saw was a crisis in client confidence that
drove that
liquidity shortfall. So when we talk about
capital distribution, it's sort of automatic to
assume that higher or
earlier capital distribution, results in lower capital
ratios, which in turn, reduces resilience.
But when you talk to clients, how important is
that distribution ambition as an indicator
and driver of
confidence in the business i.e,. like could you
argue that ultimately aligning your distribution
strategy more
closely with the distribution policies we see
elsewhere in European financials, actually increases client
confidence in the business and improves resilience. There's a
big perception difference basically between the
firm that’s buying back stock versus a firm
that’s issuing stock?
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah. Hey Chris, I’ll take the first so on, on whether the opex progress that we saw, sort of informs a better
view on the net that we’ll get to. Look, you
know I think we're quite pleased with that 1Q operating
expense
performance.
We did highlight that we expect gross saves to be halfway
to our 13 billion ambitions at the end of
the year
which is a bit better than we highlighted in February
in large part because of the 1Q performance
that we
saw. But look, we still -- our ambition is a cost-to-income ratio of less than
70% at the end of 2026. That's
what we're really focused on to manage to and so how
we pace any investments, which we'll continue
to
make in, for example, the resilience of our infrastructure,
the organic growth in our core businesses, how we
pace that will be a function of the revenue environment.
So it is still -- it is still way too early to change
that
perspective. But of course, we are pleased with the
opex performance we saw in 1Q.
As to how that impacts on the return on CET1
path that you mentioned, I would say that
coupled with the
updated NCL full-year PBT guidance I gave, would
have roughly 100 to - slightly above basis point
impact on
the return on CET1, but I would still say mid single-digits
is the right way to think about the full year
ROCET1,
even with the 1Q performance that we produced.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Yes, Chris, first of all, of course, you know, having a strong capital position and a balance sheet for all
seasons, as we call it, having a strict risk
management approach and policies and being very
disciplined in a
way we consume and manage all our resources is the pillar number
one of our strategy. And I think it's
almost a prerequisite to create the trust that clients need to have
in any bank or any organization.
14
So in that sense, I would only add that another
very important indicator, which sometimes is in conflict with
clients is your funding cost. Of course, our
clients would like to have always a higher
returns on the deposits
and the investment they place with us. But on the
other hand, when they see our
funding cost being as
competitive as we have now, they have the ultimate confirmation of
the strength and the solidity of our
franchise.
So ultimately, at the end of the day,
it's always a trade-off between different dynamics by, I would say,
emotional and psychological dynamics. But I can
only tell you that, of course, last but
not least, having a full
alignment of client trust and satisfaction,
having shareholders being happy, and having your employees being
happy is the ultimate way to create sustainable value
and trust in any bank. And this is our philosophy.
So of course, having an ability to compete in
terms of growth and our global ambitions, but
at the same time,
being able to deliver attractive returns to shareholders,
it's very important to influence the three stakeholders
I
mentioned.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Right. Thank you.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have a lot of detailed questions, but
I wanted to ask two questions
actually to Sergio, if I may. The first one is Sergio, your first comment on the call today
were, we were asked
to do a critical role in Switzerland. And -- the key here
is you were asked to buy a distressed asset, a G-SIB
asset and when you buy something, which you
are asked to buy, you clearly are in control of the process.
And I would assume just like you do in an
M&A transaction, you know that better
than me, you have a MAC
clause and in this instance, I would assume
after all the financial crisis issues that
we had in 2012-2013 with
mergers by regulators, there would have been an agreement
that there's not over-regulation for UBS post the
NewCo transaction. And I wanted to see if there's
anything like this.
The second question I
have is Sergio you
also comment that the
assessment of capital will
be based on
what
the final outcome is once we better know the outcome of these regulations. And one option is also to look at
your legal entities and maybe
close some of the legal
entities or exit, and clearly
a lot of capital is tied
up in the
US. They make lower
returns if I look at
US wealth ex-LatAm as well
as the US IB,
I assume its lower returns.
So
one option would be
a restructuring or
exiting of markets to
rather than reducing
capital return. I
wanted to
see if that is also an alternative. Thank
you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Thank you. Yeah, very good question. Yeah, I think that -- let me put it that way that some of the conditions
that were discussed and agreed at over that weekend
that were clearly, defined and communicated for
example, the one in respect of the antitrust and the competitive
nature in our local markets that has been
very well defined and agreed. Others, I would say, were also discussed and agreed.
Let me put it that way. I'm not so sure we can talk about a MAC clause but as I mentioned
in my opening
remarks, we are delivering on our commitments. So I
probably stop here.
And in respect of the amount of capital and I think
it's clearly too early to speculate or
respond to
speculations around the capital. I just want to underline
that when we talk about our parent company, you
know, UBS had already up for -- one of the best in class capitalization, the quality
of our capital in the parent
company was very strong. What I mentioned that is already
embedded in our plan. We are absorbing USD 9
billion of concession granted to Credit Suisse. We are absorbing the
progressive buffers that will come in as a
consequence of market share and size. And we believe
this is feasible and is part of the plan.
15
So, before we speculate about what we would
do to respond to any other changes in regulatory
requirements, we need to understand what they are, because, believe
me, we have not been consulted.
We
don't know what they are. And so, we need to
have the full picture before we respond to this kind of
situations.
But let me just say
that having a global
franchise, being competitive
globally, is what makes us a very attractive
bank to our clients. Shrinking
back to greatness is not
a strategy and is not what
will serve, not only our
clients
and our shareholders well,
but I'm also convinced
is not going to
serve well, Switzerland and
its ambitions to
be one of the leading financial center in the
world. That's pretty clear to me.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Thank you.
Giulia Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Yeah. Hi. Good morning. So two questions from me as well. The first one just going
back on the capital
proposal again. And you said, you were not consulted on
this document and you need to see what the
final
proposal looks like. So looking forward, what are the next steps? Do
we need to wait until June or are you
now part of the discussion, do we expect to have
more clarity throughout the year? That's the first question.
And then
the second
question more
related to
the quarter,
there was
some performance in
transaction fees
better than I expected
in wealth. I'm wondering,
is this just a transitory
Q1 thing or is this
continuing and what
should we expect there? Thank you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
I pick up the first one, and then I'll pass it to
Todd
for the second. I mean, the reason - we are not yet clear if
we're going to be formally part of any consultation
or any discussions, of course, as I mentioned
in my
remarks, we will make sure that our considerations are heard by the regulatory bodies
and policymakers and
so that we can contribute to fact-based discussions.
And of course, we also
hope that the report
of the investigating commission of the parliaments
will highlight
some of the
reasons why Credit
Suisse failed,
and that should
be a crucial
element in
contributing to
fact-based
discussions on
future regulations.
So, June,
as you
mentioned, June, June
is not
a credible
date because
the
commission is not expected to report before the end of
the year. I also think that..
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
June 2025 I meant, sorry.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
That one is, I don't know about June 2025. I
think that it's very unlikely that we're going to
have more clarity
about this matter in terms of what it means before year end or the early -- or even the early part of next year.
So in the meantime, we have to accept some
level of uncertainty around this topic.
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah, hi Giulia, on the second question about TRX in GWM. So yeah, very strong
1Q. In terms of how we --
how one should think about it, overall in going
forward, I'd say a few things. I mean, naturally, the
environment needs to be conducive to strong transactional flows
– and 1Q was, but I would really highlight
that it wasn’t so much just beta.
16
But actually, it’s an environment where you started to see risks come on, you saw some uncertainty, and it’s
an environment that plays to our strengths, where we were able to advise
in particular, across our regions in
more complex, structured products where we saw significant volume up, so
really played to our strengths and
then also, I think structurally reflects a couple of things
in addition that I would say it gives us confidence
as
we look out forward.
One is that the align product shelf, so across Credit Suisse and UBS
coming together, and the way we've
approached clients from that sense. And on the US side, as
I highlighted, just really borrowing from the
playbook outside the US, inside the US to really approach clients
more jointly with the investment bank is also
paying off.
So we see there
are some structural things
that bode well as
we look out. Of
course, the environment needs
to
be conducive, but also in an environment like the
current one is one that plays to our
strengths as mentioned
and really allows us to drive transactional flows higher.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Thanks.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas Exane
Thank you. Good morning. Two questions, please. One is, you talked about the
Investment Bank and the core
businesses that you've retained from Credit Suisse and the
people you've brought over. I just wanted to – are
they now fully productive in revenue terms? Or is there some lag still
to come through, as those people ramp
up? Are they up to speed already at this point?
And then my second question is sort of, again,
on the capital theme. I saw in the report, you
reiterate your
intention to do the 1 billion of buybacks in the
second half of this year. I guess, that's a small enough amount
that you can do it pretty much regardless of the new capital proposals. But
I just wanted to hear your
thoughts on that.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Well, let me take the first question is very – you know, of course everybody
is now up and running and
productive. And – but when you look at Banking, as
you know, what does it mean being productive?
It does,
you know, there is a phase of going out and pitching and winning mandates
and then it takes time until they
get executed. So, in a sense if you are asking me
if they are productive in pitching and being engaged with
clients, they are. Everybody is full speed. The momentum
in winning mandates is great. You could see it in the
fourth quarter. In the first quarter,
we have executed many of them. And
we are very comfortable that the
investments and the trajectory of growth that we
see going forward, if market conditions stay there to allow
the execution of those mandates, are very promising.
In respect of the billion, so I think that you know, at this stage, the only
constraints we have right now is the
waiting until the parent bank merger is executed. We expect
this to be in at the end of May and if
everything
goes through successfully, pending the regulatory approvals that we need, we intend to restart the share
buybacks with up to a billion dollars for 2024.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas Exane
Very helpful, thank you.
17
Andrew Coombs, Citigroup
Good morning. Two questions please, basic follow ups. Firstly on the Non-core result, obviously
a tremendous
result both in terms of the RWA run-down but also the gains that you've
booked during the quarter. Thank
you for the revised guidance for the full year. I just wanted to better understand the source of those
gains in
Q1, I think you said conduit and corporate
loan books and longevity portfolio. You then don't expect that to
repeat going forward. Is that because the low hanging
fruit has already been achieved or because you're now
selling a different type of asset, or anything you can elaborate
there will be helpful.
And then the second question, thank you for
the opening remarks, Sergio. On the parent bank capital,
I just
wanted to check, the 9 billon you referenced, is that in relation to a
400% risk-weight on foreign subsidiaries,
or is it the 300% as it currently is phased? And then
more broadly, a question to the both of you, in the event
that the risk weight on foreign subsidiaries does
go up, to what extent do you think you can
mitigate that
through the fungibility of capital, dividend, trapped
capital and so forth? Thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Hi, Andrew. I'll address the first question. I mean, in terms of the source of the gains, I think
as, you know, as
you mentioned, and as of course I highlighted,
it came from a number of the sort of sectors
within NCL,
Conduit, and Corporate Loans, Longevity, Securitized Products. We're also seeing, you know, strength in
Credit and Equities and Macro as well. And, you know, the team has been doing
a great job in unwinding
these complex, longer dated transactions.
And that continues to be what they're going to
be focused on
doing. So the source of the gains comes from, you know, the ability to add a
lot of value to these complex
transactions. And you know, to be able to get the transactions closed
out at levels that are above book value.
And as I highlighted, that's not an expectation
that people should continue to have, not
least just given that
sometimes we're going to make decisions to get out
of positions where we know there's significant cost
takeout or there's suboptimal capital at the moment,
it's very suboptimal from a capital efficiency perspective,
and so getting out would release that. So they're going
to be a number of factors that – which is why, you
know, we don't see 1Q repeating.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
So if I can add on that one, before I touch on the
second question. I think that's the – first of
all, there is
definitely no low hanging fruit and if you look
at our natural decay profile change, it shows you
that we are
not really going for easy to sell but rather complex transactions
that also helps in many cases to unwind costs,
because priority number one in Non-core is to take
down cost, and not necessarily to take down
risk
weighted assets and market or credit risk weighted
assets.
So, in that sense, it's very important that in many
cases we are able, thanks to the good work the
team is
doing in managing these unwinds, to leverage
the fact that we are not a forced seller. We are only going to
dispose assets when they create value to shareholders.
And that's a – is a completely different position to be
in because our capital is strong. We can allow some delays
or some time to elapse between the two.
Now on the 9 billion, so there are two factors actually; one
is the 250% risk weightings and 400% for
foreign
companies and the elimination of the filter –
of the regulatory filter that Credit Suisse had. The two combined
account for 9 billion.
Andrew Coombs, Citigroup
And the ability to mitigate any increase in the foreign subsidiaries
going forward? Assume it’s something
you're already working on given the already base increase, to what extent
you think you could accelerate
that.
18
Sergio P.
Ermotti
No the mitigation – look the mitigation I go
back to is – I mean, I have to – it’s like
replay,
push the button
again and replay what I told you or what I said before, we
cannot speculate or respond to speculation or do
analysis on things that we don't know. What we know is that we're
going to hold, as a consequence of the
Credit Suisse acquisition, 9 plus 10 billion, so almost
20 billion of additional capital on an already very
strong
capital position UBS had. That's the fact.
The rest, I don't know and we will comment when we
know more.
Andrew Coombs, Citigroup
Brilliant, very clear. Thank you for that.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Yeah, thank you very much for taking my question. I'm just – I'm sorry to follow up, just
one thing. I mean, is
it fair to say that a result of the uncertainty and not
really changing any step in your strategy and execution
of
the merger and specifically, with Q4 results, you mentioned, the potential amortization of
additional DTA, just
confirming this – at the current stage, this is going ahead.
And then on the net new assets, the 17 billion
[edit: 27 billion] in Q1, that’d be running
below, if I were
thinking about $100 billion for this year – should
it be rather than 100 billion this year, is it more like the 200
billion over the years – or two years – and more backend
loaded towards the 2025 to reach the 200 billion?
And has the decline in relationship managers had
any impact on the net new assets
growth in Q1? In the
past, you gave us some numbers about departed
relationship managers and the assets they have
taken with
them. Is that the case, as being relatively low? Thank
you very much.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Thank you, I’ll take the first question. I think
that, Anke, I think – this is a very complex
integration, and we
cannot afford to be distracted in the execution of it. So
we are sticking to our strategy. We are sticking to our
plan. We need to do that and at the same time, stay
close to our clients. And so that's
the reason why
engaging in hypothetical change of strategy
or methodology we use in assess our –
anything that goes
around capital – would be absolutely very distracting
and not in the best interest of any stakeholders, because
what we want to have is a successful completion
of this integration. And so we stay
focused on the existing
strategy and our approach.
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah Anke, on the second question, in terms of net new assets in GWM. I would
just reiterate that the
trajectory that we highlighted over the next
two years is, among other things, a function
of the financial
resource optimization and balance sheet initiatives that the
team is hard at work in undertaking. So 27 billion
in the quarter is a strong result, we're on track to deliver on our
ambitions, which we said was 200 billion
over the course of two years. So I would continue
to think about that in those terms.
In terms of the RMs who have left, you mentioned
that we had given some numbers in the
past. Yeah, I
mean, that has continued just to taper. As an impact, just given the number of RMs
who have left, has
become sort of a non-topic at this point
in time. In terms of any current period, and in terms
of the assets
that they’ve taken with them, it is a very small
percentage, ultimately, of the given – especially given the fact
that the RM workforce in Credit Suisse is down 40% from the end
of 2022 levels, and we've been able to
retain the lion share of the assets. So, we consider that
to be sort of a story not terribly worth following,
and
in the end, we stay focused on our plans
and our commitments.
19
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you. Can I just ask on the DTA please? Are you reiterating that we expect to convert
that 2 billion and
the 500 million you talked about with Q4 results?
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah. There's no change in terms of our approach to DTAs at the current time, Anke.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Hi. Good morning. Two questions, please. One on your favorite topic, capital. Just
conceptually, trying to
understand, because when the press it’s reported, or the
Minister of Finance speaks, about capital,
and we
naturally assume it’s CET1 capital, but do you
think it could also partially include additional
tier 1 capital,
which might make it more manageable for you?
And then secondly, on your Global Wealth Management net new loans in the quarter, another decline, it’s
very similar to the Q4 decline. Just trying to
reconcile that with your risk appetite returning statement
– being
conscious of the yield curve’s still not favorable
but wondering if it's also more of a risk alignment
still going
on in the background, which is why your outstanding
remains negative? Thank you very much.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Benjamin, the first one is very short. As
I say, we don’t speculate or respond to speculation in respect of any
numbers that has been flagged out there. So it’s
not – we are not in a position to understand where and how
those numbers are calculated, therefore we refrain from doing that.
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah, and Benjamin hi. On the GWM net new lending side, we are seeing continued deleveraging,
some of
that is market driven and some of that – i.e.
rates driven, and some of that is as a
function of the resource
optimization work that we're doing. So, that's an outcome
that we're managing, to the extent it is the latter,
we are looking to drive higher revenues. And therefore, I’m looking for the
NIM to sort of hold up in that
respect, because we're improving the revenue over RWA consideration.
But obviously, in the current rates environment, too, we're seeing either the ends of deleveraging and
still yet
some reticence to re-lever in some of our regions. So I expect that
we won't have a lot of momentum on re-
levering in the current rates environment until we start to
see rates come down, over – if, assuming they do
–
over the next, say 12 to 18 months, so that external
factor won't be, to me, a big driver in
terms of
releverage.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Understood. Thank you very much.
20
Piers Brown, HSBC
Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for the questions. Just two from me, just coming
back on the cost issue, and
the costs take out in the quarter in the NCL unit.
I mean, it's quite impressive, you're down 26% quarter-on-
quarter. And the cost takeout seems to be tracking more or less in line with the asset
reduction. Just, I mean,
the question is, should we expect that sort
of linear relationship to continue or was it something
particular in
terms of frontloading costs takeout in the first quarter
in NCL?
And then the second question is back to regulation,
not on capital but just wondering if there's anything
in
any of the remarks, comments, reports, published by the Competition
Commission that we need to be
mindful of, just in terms of the domestic
market shares of the new group. Thanks.
Todd
Tuckner
Hey Piers. In terms of the first question on
the NCL cost takeout. There isn't a linear relationship, I would
say.
It's, it could be, the relationship really doesn't have to
flow linearly. And that's because, the cost takeout will
often come as a result of taking out a portfolio that
sits on a given system or supported by a
given
infrastructure or application that we’re able to shut down.
But there is of course, a relationship between the
asset takeout and the cost takeout. I wouldn't
say it's linear because you can have, you can be
taking out
portions of a portfolio that still needs at least
a large share of the headcount supporting that, whether
it's the
front office or mid or back, that's still supporting the
broader portfolio. And if you're not really able to
decommission the associated technology, you may not get the saves there. So not
linear, but for sure, it's
something we watch very carefully and we're pleased to
see that it is moving with a reasonably high-degree
of correlation.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Now on the competitive position. Let's
forget for a second that we have a crystal
clear agreement on that
topic. Even if you go down to the substance,
which is, I think, is relevant for us, for consumers,
for clients, or
everybody to understand. When you look at
facts, it's quite clear that we have no dominant
position in
Switzerland, in banking. So I think that no
matter if you look at deposits, at loans
and mortgages, you look at
branch – number of branches; in any dimension,
UBS is not the largest bank in Switzerland in
that sense. I
think we are the leading bank in Switzerland because
of our capabilities, but that should not be confused
with market share and size. So in that sense, we are fairly comfortable
that both the agreement and the facts
support our position that our plan is the right one
to pursue.
Piers Brown, HSBC
Thank you.
Tom
Hallett, KBW
Hi. Morning. So just a quick one on Wealth
Management NII, I think you were baking in three US rate
cuts for
this year in your guidance. If that was zero, what would
that – or how would that alter your guidance?
And then secondly, on the treatment of software intangibles, I suppose it's fair to say it gets a bit more of
a
benefit relative to your European peers. I mean, if you
were to align the rules with Europe, what sort of
impact would that have on your capital?
Thank you.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
So, on the second question, as I said before, we are not
speculating on any change in our regulatory
framework. The only thing I can say is that
both in absolute global terms, but also
vis-à-vis the European
peers, we have a pretty strong capital position, not only in
absolute terms, but also the quality of
our capital
base.
21
Todd
Tuckner
Hey Tom,
on GWM NII, yes, we modeled in as mentioned
three US dollar rate cuts. If there were fewer than
those – and Sergio even commented earlier that
there is some upside, but of course, in our NII, but of
course
that depends on client behavior. It depends on how the balance sheet, you know, behaves. So statically, yes,
that would be corrected to be upside. If there were no rate cuts, you
probably have some uptick of a point or
two on the NII. But of course, you know, we need to consider the
dynamic relationship between client
behavior and our balance sheet. So it's difficult to predict,
but yes, I would just take away that – likely
to be
some degree of upside, all other things equal.
Tom
Hallett, KBW
Okay. Thank you.
Sarah Mackey
Thank you. I
think there are
no further questions.
So with that
we can close
the call. And
thank you, Sergio
and
Todd
for joining us today. We look forward to speaking to everyone again with our 2Q results.
22
Cautionary
statement
regarding
forward-looking
statements
|
This
document
contains
statements
that
constitute
“forward-looking
statements,” including
but not
limited to
management’s outlook
for UBS’s
financial performance,
statements relating
to the
anticipated
effect
of
transactions
and
strategic
initiatives
on
UBS’s
business
and
future
development
and
goals
or
intentions
to
achieve
climate,
sustainability and other social objectives. While these forward-looking statements represent UBS’s
judgments, expectations and objectives
concerning the matters described, a number
of risks, uncertainties and other important factors
could cause actual developments and results
to differ materially from UBS’s expectations. In
particular, terrorist activity and conflicts in the Middle
East, as well as the continuing
Russia–
Ukraine war, may have significant impacts on
global markets, exacerbate
global inflationary pressures, and slow
global growth. In addition,
the ongoing
conflicts may
continue to
cause significant
population displacement,
and lead
to shortages
of
vital commodities,
including
energy
shortages and
food
insecurity outside
the
areas
immediately involved
in
armed
conflict. Governmental
responses
to
the
armed
conflicts, including, with respect to the
Russia–Ukraine war, coordinated successive sets of sanctions on
Russia and Belarus, and Russian
and
Belarusian entities and nationals, and
the uncertainty as to
whether the ongoing conflicts will
widen and intensify,
may continue to have
significant adverse effects on the market and macroeconomic conditions, including in ways that cannot be anticipated. UBS’s acquisition of
the
Credit
Suisse
Group
has
materially
changed
our
outlook
and
strategic
direction
and
introduced
new
operational
challenges.
The
integration of the
Credit Suisse entities
into the UBS
structure is expected
to take between
three and five years
and presents significant
risks,
including the risks
that UBS Group
AG may be
unable to achieve
the cost reductions
and other benefits
contemplated by
the transaction. This
creates significantly greater
uncertainty about forward-looking
statements. Other factors
that may
affect our
performance and ability
to
achieve our plans, outlook
and other objectives also
include, but are not limited
to: (i) the degree to which
UBS is successful in the
execution
of its strategic plans, including its cost reduction and efficiency initiatives and its ability to manage its levels of risk-weighted assets (RWA)
and leverage ratio denominator (LRD), liquidity coverage
ratio and other financial resources, including changes in RWA assets and liabilities
arising from higher market volatility
and the size of the
combined Group; (ii) the degree
to which UBS is successful
in implementing changes
to its businesses
to meet changing
market, regulatory and
other conditions,
including as
a result of
the acquisition
of the Credit
Suisse Group;
(iii) increased inflation and interest
rate volatility in major markets; (iv)
developments in the macroeconomic climate and in
the markets in
which UBS operates or to which it is exposed, including movements in securities prices
or liquidity, credit spreads, currency exchange rates,
deterioration or slow
recovery in
residential and
commercial real
estate markets, the
effects of
economic conditions, including increasing
inflationary pressures,
market developments,
increasing geopolitical
tensions, and
changes to
national trade
policies on
the financial position
or creditworthiness of UBS’s clients and counterparties, as
well as on client sentiment and levels
of activity; (v) changes in the availability
of
capital
and
funding,
including
any
adverse
changes
in
UBS’s
credit
spreads
and
credit
ratings
of
UBS,
Credit
Suisse,
sovereign
issuers,
structured credit products or credit-related exposures, as well as availability and cost
of funding to meet requirements for debt eligible for
total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC), in particular in light of
the acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group;
(vi) changes in central bank policies
or the implementation of
financial legislation and regulation
in Switzerland, the US,
the UK, the
EU and other
financial centers that have
imposed, or resulted in, or may
do so in the future,
more stringent or entity-specific capital, TLAC, leverage ratio, net
stable funding ratio,
liquidity
and
funding
requirements,
heightened
operational
resilience
requirements,
incremental
tax
requirements,
additional
levies,
limitations on permitted activities, constraints on remuneration, constraints on transfers of capital and liquidity and sharing of operational
costs across
the Group
or other
measures, and
the effect
these will
or would
have on
UBS’s business activities;
(vii) UBS’s ability
to successfully
implement resolvability
and related
regulatory requirements
and the
potential need
to make
further changes
to the
legal structure
or booking
model of UBS in response to
legal and regulatory requirements and any
additional requirements due to its acquisition of
the Credit Suisse
Group, or other developments; (viii) UBS’s ability to maintain and improve its systems and controls for
complying with sanctions in a timely
manner and for the
detection and prevention
of money laundering
to meet evolving
regulatory requirements and expectations,
in particular
in current geopolitical
turmoil; (ix)
the uncertainty
arising from
domestic stresses
in certain
major economies;
(x) changes
in UBS’s competitive
position, including
whether differences
in regulatory
capital and
other requirements
among the
major financial
centers adversely
affect UBS’s
ability to compete
in certain lines of
business; (xi) changes
in the standards of
conduct applicable
to our businesses
that may result from
new
regulations
or
new
enforcement of
existing standards,
including measures
to
impose new
and
enhanced duties
when
interacting with
customers and
in the execution
and handling
of customer transactions;
(xii) the liability
to which UBS
may be exposed,
or possible constraints
or sanctions that regulatory authorities might impose on UBS, due
to litigation, contractual claims and regulatory investigations, including
the potential for disqualification
from certain businesses,
potentially large fines
or monetary penalties,
or the loss of licenses
or privileges as
a result
of regulatory
or other
governmental sanctions,
as well
as the
effect that
litigation, regulatory
and similar
matters have
on the
operational risk component of our RWA, including as
a result of its acquisition of the Credit
Suisse Group, as well as the amount of
capital
available for return to
shareholders; (xiii) the effects
on UBS’s
business, in particular cross-border
banking, of sanctions, tax
or regulatory
developments and of
possible changes in
UBS’s policies
and practices; (xiv)
UBS’s
ability to retain
and attract the
employees necessary to
generate
revenues
and
to
manage,
support
and
control
its
businesses,
which
may
be
affected
by
competitive
factors;
(xv)
changes
in
accounting or
tax standards
or policies,
and determinations
or interpretations
affecting the
recognition of
gain or
loss, the
valuation of
goodwill, the recognition
of deferred tax assets
and other matters;
(xvi) UBS’s ability to implement
new technologies and
business methods,
including digital services and technologies, and
ability to successfully compete with
both existing and new financial service providers,
some
of which may not be regulated
to the same extent; (xvii) limitations on the
effectiveness of UBS’s internal processes for
risk management,
risk control,
measurement and
modeling, and
of financial
models generally;
(xviii) the
occurrence of
operational failures,
such as
fraud,
misconduct, unauthorized
trading,
financial
crime,
cyberattacks, data
leakage and
systems failures,
the
risk
of
which
is
increased
with
cyberattack threats from
both nation states
and non-nation-state
actors targeting
financial institutions;
(xix) restrictions
on the ability
of UBS
Group AG
and UBS AG
to make payments
or distributions, including
due to restrictions
on the ability
of its
subsidiaries to make
loans or
distributions, directly or indirectly, or, in the case of financial difficulties,
due to the exercise by FINMA
or the regulators of UBS’s operations
in other
countries of
their broad
statutory powers
in relation
to protective
measures, restructuring
and liquidation proceedings;
(xx) the
degree to
which changes in
regulation, capital or
legal structure, financial
results or other
factors may affect
UBS’s
ability to maintain
its
stated capital return objective; (xxi) uncertainty over the scope of actions
that may be required by UBS, governments and others for UBS to
achieve goals relating to
climate, environmental and social matters, as
well as the evolving nature
of underlying science and industry
and
the
possibility of
conflict between
different
governmental standards
and
regulatory
regimes;
(xxii)
the
ability of
UBS
to
access
capital
markets; (xxiii)
the ability
of UBS
to successfully
recover from
a disaster
or other
business continuity problem
due to
a hurricane,
flood,
earthquake,
terrorist
attack,
war,
conflict
(e.g.,
the
Russia–Ukraine
war),
pandemic,
security
breach,
cyberattack,
power
loss,
telecommunications failure
or other natural
or man-made event,
including the ability
to function remotely
during long-term
disruptions such
as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic; (xxiv) the level of success in
the absorption of Credit Suisse, in the
integration of the two groups
and their
businesses, and
in the
execution of
the planned
strategy regarding
cost reduction
and divestment
of any
non-core assets,
the
existing assets and
liabilities of Credit
Suisse, the level
of resulting impairments
and write-downs, the
effect of the
consummation of the
integration on
the operational
results, share price
and credit rating
of UBS –
delays, difficulties,
or failure in
closing the
transaction may
cause
market disruption and challenges for UBS to maintain
business, contractual and operational relationships; and (xxv)
the effect that these or
other factors
or unanticipated
events, including
media reports
and speculations,
may have
on our
reputation and
the additional
consequences
that this
may have
on our
business and
performance. The
sequence in
which the
factors above
are presented
is not
indicative of
their
likelihood of
occurrence or
the potential
magnitude of
their consequences. Our
business and
financial performance
could be
affected by
other factors identified
in our past and future
filings and reports, including
those filed with the
US Securities and Exchange
Commission (the
SEC). More
detailed information
about those
factors is
set forth
in documents
furnished by
UBS and
filings made
by UBS
with the
SEC,
including the
UBS Group AG
and UBS AG
Annual Reports
on Form 20-
F for the
year ended 31
December 2023.
UBS is not
under any obligation
to (and expressly disclaims
any obligation to)
update or alter its
forward-looking statements,
whether as a result of
new information, future
events, or otherwise.
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the
registrants have duly
caused this report to be signed on their behalf by the undersigned, thereunto
duly authorized.
UBS Group AG
By:
/s/ David Kelly
_
Name:
David Kelly
Title:
Managing Director
By:
/s/ Ella Campi
_
Name:
Ella Campi
Title:
Executive Director
UBS AG
By:
/s/ David Kelly
_
Name:
David Kelly
Title:
Managing Director
By:
/s/ Ella Campi
_
Name:
Ella Campi
Title:
Executive Director
Credit Suisse AG
By:
/s/ Ulrich Körner
_____
Name:
Ulrich Körner
Title:
Chief Executive Officer
By:
/s/
Simon Grimwood
_
Name:
Simon Grimwood
Title:
Chief Financial Officer
Date:
May 8, 2024