6-K
UBS AG (AMUB)
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
_________________
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE
ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date: November 1, 2024
UBS Group AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-36764
UBS AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive offices)
Commission File Number: 1-15060
Indicate by check mark whether the registrants file or will file annual
reports under cover of Form
20-F or Form 40-
F.
Form 20-F
☒
Form 40-F
☐
This Form 6-K consists of the transcripts of the 3Q24 Earnings call remarks
and Analyst Q&A, which
appear immediately following this page.
1
Third quarter 2024 results
30 October 2024
Speeches by
Sergio P.
Ermotti
, Group Chief Executive Officer,
and
Todd
Tuckner
,
Group Chief Financial
Officer
Including analyst
Q&A session
Transcript.
Numbers for slides refer to the third quarter 2024 results presentation.
Materials and a webcast
replay are available at
www.ubs.com/investors
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Slide 3 – Key messages
Thank you, Sarah and good morning,
everyone.
Our strong financial
performance in the quarter,
with a net profit
of 1.4 billion and
an underlying PBT of
2.4
billion,
together
with
our
year-to-date
results,
demonstrates
the
power
of
our
unique
client
franchises,
diversified business model and global scale.
It also represents continued progress on the integration. This brings us two
important benefits.
First, it increases our confidence level in achieving
our short- and medium-term financial targets.
Second, it allows us to offer the full range of services
of the combined bank, and to stay even closer
to clients.
We are
better positioned than
ever to help
them navigate a market
background that, while
constructive, still
exhibits periods of high volatility and dislocation.
Our
commitment
to
serving
clients
is
reflected
in
a
9%
year-on-year
increase
in
underlying
revenues,
with
notable strength in the Americas and APAC.
Invested assets across the Group increased
by 15% year-on-year to 6.2 trillion. This shows
that our wealth and
asset management clients
continue to value
the capabilities we
provide across our advice
platform and the
way
in which we consistently innovate to meet their
needs.
One excellent example
is the positive
client and General
Partner reaction to
the launch of
our Unified Global
Alternatives unit, which has created a top-5 player
in Alternatives.
In Switzerland, while
we faced the
expected headwinds
on Net Interest Income,
we continued to
deliver on our
commitment to acting
as a
safe and
reliable provider
of credit
to the
economy,
with around
35 billion Swiss
francs of loans granted or renewed in the quarter.
Within
the
Investment
Bank,
our
investments
in
Global
Markets
supported
robust
performance
in
Equities,
notably in the Americas.
2
And in Global
Banking, we maintained
our momentum in
Advisory as we
outperformed the global
M&A fee
pools for the third consecutive quarter. As importantly, our M&A pipeline continues to build.
Turning back to the integration. The finalization of our preparation work during the quarter allowed us, in the
last two weeks of October, to successfully achieve another milestone. We moved
all of the client accounts and
data in Luxembourg and Hong Kong onto UBS
platforms.
The next significant milestones
for 2024 are the client
account migrations in Singapore
and Japan, expected
by
year-end. We
will then kick-off the next phase of
Swiss migrations in the second quarter of 2025, positioning
us well to enhance the client experience and unlock further cost reductions towards the end of 2025 and into
2026.
In
Non-core
and
Legacy,
we
continue
to
simplify
our
operations
through
book
closures
and
the
decommissioning of applications. This has
supported the significant year-to-date reductions in costs.
And thanks to our active wind-down efforts, the natural runoff profile
of the remaining positions is already in
line
with
our
2026
risk-weighted
asset
ambition.
At
the
same
time,
we
remain
focused
on
identifying
opportunities
to
further
improve
the
rundown
profile,
but
will
continue
to
do
so
without
compromising
economic value creation.
The overall
disciplined progress
on the
integration, including
the completion
of the
legal entity
mergers, has
significantly mitigated the execution risk of
the Credit Suisse acquisition.
This, combined with the strong performance of our businesses, has allowed us to
generate capital well ahead
of our plan and guidance.
As we
prudently assess future
capital requirements,
business plans and
profitability for the
coming years, we
feel it
is important
our current
Group
capital position
better reflects
excess capital
available for
growth and
returns to shareholders.
Consequently, we have voluntarily accelerated the phase-out of the remaining transitional capital adjustments
agreed with our regulator, which we had disclosed upon the closing of the acquisition.
This brings our CET1 capital ratio to 14.3%, more in line with our guidance while maintaining a strong capital
position and a balance sheet for all seasons.
This buffer was never
considered for distribution
and its removal has
no impact on our
ability to execute on
the
ongoing 2024 share buyback, nor on our medium-term
ambitions for dividends and buybacks.
As already
communicated, we
will provide
more detail
on our
2025 capital
return plans,
including the
continued
execution of buybacks, with our fourth-quarter
results.
Our ambition for 2026 capital returns to exceed pre-acquisition
levels is unchanged, subject to our assessment
of any proposed requirements from Switzerland’s ongoing review of its capital regime.
I want to emphasize that our focus extends
beyond meeting the current needs of our clients,
executing on the
integration and delivering on our short-term
plans.
We
are
also
preparing
for
the
future
by
continuing
to
invest
in
our
people,
products
and
capabilities
to
strengthen our client offerings and position our businesses
for long-term growth.
3
This includes
investing in
our industry-leading
cloud infrastructure
as well
as our
expertise in
artificial intelligence
and automation. This will accelerate Generative
AI adoption, increasing efficiency and effectiveness.
One example of the many ways we are leveraging AI is through Microsoft Copilot. With
50,000 licenses being
rolled out
between now
and the
end of
the first
quarter, we are
implementing the
largest deployment
of Copilot
within the global financial services industry to
date.
Another example is Red, a
proprietary new AI assistant that
provides 20,000 employees in
Switzerland, Hong
Kong, and Singapore with easy access to UBS product
information and investment research.
In the
Investment Bank,
we are
piloting a
proprietary AI
algorithm that
researches and
compiles potential
merger
and acquisition buy-side targets.
In
these, and
the many
other AI
deployments that
are
underway across
the entire
firm,
we are
focused on
responsible AI as we provide our people with tools that
will help them better manage their businesses.
Even as new technology
is changing the way
we work, our people
will remain the most
important driver of
our
success.
That is why
I am particularly
pleased with the
positive results from a
recent employee survey
which, by the
way,
is an important testament to the progress we have made
on the integration.
84% say they are proud to work for UBS, and 83% would recommend UBS as an employer
– both well above
industry benchmarks.
We have
achieved a lot
over the last
18 months as
we are
building a stronger
and even safer
version of UBS
that all of our key stakeholders can be proud of.
But there is
no room for complacency.
We are just
about halfway to restoring
pre-acquisition levels of profits
and returns on capital and the journey
won’t be a straight line.
In
the
short-term,
in
addition
to
seasonality,
ongoing
global
macroeconomic
developments,
geopolitical
conflicts and the upcoming US elections
create uncertainties that are likely to affect investor behavior.
We continue to
help clients navigate
this environment, and
I remain confident
in our ability
to deliver on
our
financial targets as we
position UBS for long-term,
sustainable growth and remain a
pillar of economic support
in the communities where we live and work.
With that, I hand over to Todd.
4
Todd
Tuckner
Slide 5 – Strong revenue momentum with lower costs driving positive
operating leverage
Thank you Sergio, and good morning
everyone.
Throughout my remarks, I will refer to underlying results in US dollars
unless stated otherwise.
Also, starting today, I compare our performance to the prior-year
quarter since we now have fully comparable
year-over-year
information for
the
first
time
since
the Credit
Suisse acquisition
last
year.
I
continue to
offer
sequential insights on
balance sheet, net
interest income
developments, and our
progress towards
achieving
our gross cost save targets by the end of 2026.
Starting on slide 5. Profit before tax in the quarter increased over two-and-half times to 2.4
billion with strong
operating leverage improvement year-over-year,
contributing to a return on CET1 capital
of 9.4%.
Total
revenues
rose
by
9%
to
11.7 billion
driven
by
momentum
in
our
asset
gathering
businesses
and
Investment
Bank.
At
the
same
time,
operating
expenses
declined
by
4%
to
9.2 billion
as
we
continued
to
execute on our integration and efficiency plans.
These results also contribute to a strong year-to-date
performance, with a 9-month pre-tax profit of 7.1 billion
and a return on CET1 capital of 9.2%.
Slide 6 – 3Q24 net profit 1.4bn, while integration continues
at pace
Turning to slide 6, which illustrates our progress in improving profitability over the last year.
The net profit for the quarter was 1.4 billion with an
EPS of 43 cents.
As illustrated on the
slide, the increase in
underlying pre-tax profit was driven
by higher revenues paired
with
lower costs and CLE.
On a
reported basis,
PBT was
1.9 billion including
0.7 billion of
purchase price
allocation adjustments
in our
core businesses, and integration-related expenses of 1.1
billion.
Our tax expense in the third quarter was 502 million,
representing an effective rate of 26%.
For the fourth
quarter, we expect additional revenues
from purchase price allocation
adjustments of
0.5 billion,
integration-related expenses of 1.2 billion and an
effective tax rate of around 35%.
Slide 7 – Underlying operating expenses flat
QoQ excluding currency effects
Turning to our quarterly cost update on slide 7.
Operating
expenses
increased
by
2%
quarter-on-quarter,
and
were
flat
excluding
the
effects
of
US
dollar
softness against the Swiss franc and pound Sterling, in which we incur substantial personnel costs. When also
excluding increased variable
compensation linked to
revenues and lower
litigation reserve releases,
operating
expenses reduced by around 200 million sequentially, or 2%. This was supported by a
lower, overall employee
count, which fell sequentially by another fourteen hundred, or 1%, to below 132,000. The total staff count is
down 25 thousand, or 16%, from our 2022 baseline.
5
Our underlying cost-income ratio dropped
by two points sequentially to
78.5% and has improved
by over 10
points compared
to the
same quarter
last year.
This performance
highlights the
substantial progress
to date
and outlines the path forward to reach our target ratio of
under 70% by the end of 2026.
As in
prior years,
we expect
in 4Q
a modest
sequential uptick
in our
operating expenses
for select
non-personnel
items, including the UK bank levy and regional marketing
spend.
Slide 8 – Achieved >50% of gross cost save ambition
Moving on to slide
- In the third
quarter,
we achieved 750 million in additional, annualized
gross cost saves,
putting us past the halfway mark towards our 13 billion
goal.
As expected, the
pace of saves moderately
slowed this quarter as
we continued the intensive
work necessary
to effectively
dismantle the
infrastructure of
a
former G-SIB.
In particular,
we completed
preparation of
the
client account and platform migrations
in our Asian wealth
franchise and continued readiness efforts
relating
to our Swiss booking center - by far
our largest - that are
planned for next year.
This phase of the integration
requires fully staffed teams across regions to minimize client disruption and maintain
operational efficiency.
The comparatively
smaller saves
this quarter
are a
reflection of
these concerted
efforts along
with higher
variable
compensation, FX headwinds and
more moderate cost
progress in
NCL after a
year of very
strong sequential
achievements.
As we continue our client
account and platform migration
work across our divisions
and regions in the months
ahead, we estimate sequential cost saves
to be similarly sized.
We expect the pace
to pick-up again once
this
critical integration phase is complete and we can then
fully benefit from decommissioning software, hardware
and data centers, and by unlocking further
staff capacity.
By the end of this year,
we plan to have delivered
around 7.5 billion in annualized gross cost saves
versus our
2022 baseline and cumulative integration-related expenses
of around 9 billion.
Slide 9 – Strong capital position supporting growth and
capital return ambitions
Now to Slide
9, where I
unpack our capital
position. We ended
the third
quarter with a
CET1 capital ratio
of
14.3%, slightly above our guidance of around 14%.
As Sergio
highlighted, the sequential
decrease this
quarter results from
our decision to
accelerate the phase-
out
of
the
PPA-related
transitional capital
adjustment, which
led
to
a
65-basis point
reduction
in
our
CET1
capital ratio. Without this voluntary
acceleration, the ratio at the end of the
quarter would have been 14.9%.
As many of you will remember from
last year,
the acquisition accounting standard required us to fair
value all
of Credit Suisse’s
assets and liabilities
at closing. This
purchase price allocation
process also resulted
in fair value
discounts applied
to select Credit
Suisse positions, such
as fixed-rate
Swiss mortgages and
certain term
note
liabilities, which were driven solely by interest-rate and own credit effects.
Accordingly, these fair value adjustments,
totaling to
negative 5 billion
net of tax
effects, were expected
to fully
reverse into
income, or
pull-to-par,
over time.
Given the
temporary nature
of these
adjustments, we
agreed
with our regulator at closing to amortize
the resulting capital reduction on a
linear basis over a 4-year period.
This
shielded
our
capital
from
significant
accounting-driven
volatility,
at
least
during
the
first
phase
of
the
integration process.
Our decision
this quarter
to accelerate
the phase-out
of the
residual balance
of 3.4 billion
reflects the
significant
progress we’ve made to date
across our integration agenda, including
the successful merger of
the two parent
banks last quarter. This decision also underscores our confidence moving forward.
6
Moreover, by accelerating
the phase-out
of the
transitional capital
adjustment on
the aforementioned
positions,
the remaining PPA
discount, like all other pull-to-par revenues, will now fully accrete into
our capital in future
periods, reversing the impact seen in this quarter’s
results.
Specifically,
we
expect
to
recognize
total
pull-to-par
revenues
of
6.4 billion
over
the
next
several
years,
benefitting our net
profit, equity, and CET1 capital. Within
this, 80% is set
to accrete back by
the end of 2028,
of which 3 and a half billion by the end of 2026.
Notably, the requirement to
fair value
the positions
subject to
the transitional
capital adjustment
had no
bearing
on the Credit Suisse parent
bank or its standalone capital
position. Hence, it’s important
to emphasize that our
decision this quarter is
equally neutral to the
regulatory capital position
of UBS AG,
now that the
two parent
banks have
merged. We
expect UBS
AG’s standalone,
fully-applied CET1
capital ratio
to be
a strong
13.3%
when we publish our report next week.
A
brief
update on
Basel 3
finalization as
we continue
to assess
the effects
of the
Swiss implementation
on
January 1st. While we’ll present the final details with our 4Q results in February,
our latest estimate is that the
RWA
impact will
be a
low single
digit percentage
of total
Group
RWA.
This is
revised
down from
our prior
guidance of around 5%, and
is now expected to reduce
our CET1 capital ratio by
around 30 basis points upon
implementation next year.
Slide 10 – Balance sheet for all seasons
Now, moving on to
Slide 10. While
our strong capital
position is a
key pillar of
our strategy, starting this quarter
I offer a more comprehensive picture of our balance sheet and the structural drivers that contribute to making
it a balance sheet for all seasons.
As of the end
of the third quarter
our balance sheet consisted of 1.6 trillion
in total assets, with around
40%
in loan balances. While we continue
to optimize the risk profile
of exposures inherited with the
acquisition of
Credit Suisse, our lending book continues to reflect high credit quality
and disciplined risk management.
More than
80% of
our loan
portfolio consists
of mortgages,
with an
average LTV
of around
50%, and
fully
collateralized Lombard loans. This quarter our credit-impaired exposure as a
percentage of our loan book was
just 73 basis points, and our cost of risk was
only 8 basis points.
Assets held
at fair
value were
494 billion, or
around 30%
of the
total balance
sheet. Notably,
Level 3
assets
were 16 billion and accounted for less than 1% of
our total assets.
Turning
to the
liability side. Our
operations this quarter
were funded
with 776 billion of
deposits and almost
370 billion of well-diversified
wholesale funding, spread
across currencies and tenors.
Our loan-to-deposit ratio
at quarter
end was
79%. Throughout
the year, we have
diligently executed
on our
funding plan,
already having
completed our issuances for 2024 and prefunded
some of our 2025 AT1 build.
Finally, tangible equity in the quarter
increased by 3.6 billion to
80 billion, mainly driven
by quarterly net
profits
and
other
comprehensive
income
of
2.5 billion.
This
was
partly
offset
by
a
net
reduction
of
0.5 billion
for
Treasury shares repurchased as part of
our share buyback
program. Our tangible
book value was
25 dollars and
10 cents per share, reflecting a sequential increase of 5%.
Overall,
we continue
to operate
with a
highly
fortified and
resilient
balance
sheet with
total
loss
absorbing
capacity of 195 billion, a net stable funding
ratio of 127% and an LCR of 199%.
7
Slide 11 – Global Wealth Management
Moving to our business divisions, starting with
Global Wealth Management on slide 11.
GWM’s pre-tax
profit was
1.3 billion, an
increase of
30% with
strong positive
jaws as
revenue growth
outpaced
expenses by 4 percentage points.
Our performance is showcasing the enduring
competitive strengths of our wealth franchise. Enhanced
by the
Credit Suisse acquisition, our global
scale, diversified model, and cross-divisional capabilities uniquely
position
us to capture
wallet and seize
growth opportunities. The
industry trends we
see accelerating
include legacy
and
longevity-based
planning
needs,
geographic
wealth
migration,
and
active
management among
the
world’s
wealthiest investors to diversify
portfolios and manage risks.
These secular growth
dynamics play right
to our
strengths.
This quarter,
within an
active market environment
characterized by
higher volatility
and continuing
concerns
around geopolitical developments,
our clients benefitted
from our CIO’s call to
remain invested and to
position
their portfolios to take advantage of the current
market backdrop. This further strengthened our clients’
trust
in our advice and capabilities, and contributed
to strong revenue growth in every region.
All regions delivered double-digit PBT growth. Notably, APAC delivered impressive results, more than doubling
last
year’s
pre-tax
profits
on
a
revenue
improvement
of
13%.
Also
in
the
Americas,
where
invested
assets
surpassed the 2 trillion mark, our
performance showed notable progress. PBT
grew by 11% year-on-year and
by over 30% sequentially, translating into a pre-tax margin of 12%.
In the
quarter we
delivered 25 billion
in net
new assets
with positive
flows across
all regions.
With net
new
assets of
nearly 80
billion year-to-date, we
remain on track
to deliver
on our
100 billion
NNA ambition
for 2024.
Once
again,
we
attracted strong
net
new
assets
while
continuing
to
absorb integration-related
headwinds,
including the
anticipated roll-off
of a
portion of
the fixed
term deposits
associated with
last year’s
win-back
campaign, our ongoing work to optimize balance
sheet usage and enhance revenue margins,
and the residual
tail of client advisors leaving the Credit Suisse platform.
Of
the
60
billion
in
deposit volumes
maturing in
the quarter,
we
retained
85%
on
our
platform,
including
converting 20%
into more
profitable mandates,
structured products
and other
liquidity solutions.
Managing
this roll-off
will remain
a short-term
priority for
us as
we expect
elevated maturing deposit
volumes over the
next two quarters.
Additionally,
by
remaining
focused
on
improving
the
efficiency
of
our
financial
resources
and
increasing
profitability
on
sub-hurdle
relationships,
our
balance
sheet
optimization efforts
have
supported incremental
progress in our revenue over RWA margin, bringing it to over 23%, a 3 percentage point increase from a year
ago when we started this work.
Net new fee-generating assets were 15 billion, reflecting strong discretionary
mandate sales in all regions with
disciplined pricing supporting stable margins
sequentially.
Now, onto GWM’s financials.
Total
revenues increased by 7% with higher recurring
net fee income and double-digit growth in transactional
revenues, more than
offsetting NII headwinds.
As I’ve highlighted
in the past,
a lower interest
rate environment
is expected
to spur
client demand
for more
advisory solutions,
including structured
products and
alternative
investments, as clients seek to rebalance
their cash exposures in search
for yield. We also
expect clients to re-
engage in lending activities helping to offset some
of the NII headwinds.
8
Recurring net
fee income
increased by
9% to
3.2 billion as
our invested
assets grew
to 4.3 trillion,
up 16%
year-on-year
and
5%
sequentially,
driven
by
market
growth,
FX
and
net
new
asset
inflows.
Mandate
penetration increased to
38%, up 2
points from the
same quarter a
year ago, reflecting
the value our
clients
see in our advice and solutions supporting
their investment objectives.
Transaction-based revenues were 1.1 billion, up 19%, with strong momentum across all regions supported by
the initial reduction in US policy rates. Combined with the announcement of
economic stimulus in China, this
made for a constructive trading environment for
our clients.
In addition, the successful
collaboration between GWM
and the IB, and our
investments in AI-led sales
support
capabilities, allowed
us to
capture transactional
volumes across
our expanding
product shelf.
We saw
impressive
growth in
structured and
cash products,
and in
alternatives. This continues
to be
especially notable
in APAC
and the Americas, where
transactional revenues were up
25% and 23% year-on-year,
respectively,
and both
up
sequentially
vs
a
strong
2Q.
We
see
this
momentum
continuing
into
the
fourth
quarter,
while
noting
transactional activity typically decreases as we approach
year-end.
Net interest income at 1.6 billion was broadly flat sequentially as reinvestment income from longer duration
in
our replication portfolios offset expected headwinds from mix
shifts.
In the fourth quarter, with 50 basis points of further US dollar rate cuts priced-in, we expect a sequential mid-
single digit percentage drop in NII.
This is expected to
be driven mainly by headwinds
to deposit revenues from
lower rates, while
our deposit balances,
as mentioned, reflect
conversion of fixed-term deposits,
in part, into
non-deposit solutions.
Also, as mentioned last quarter, towards the end of the year,
we plan to adjust the sweep deposit rates in our
US
advisory accounts.
The effect
of this
change on
our
NII is
expected to
be minimal
in the
fourth quarter.
Moreover, lower US dollar rate assumptions
also reduce the modeled
impact of sweep
deposit rate changes
on
net interest
income in
2025, and
likewise would
be expected
to improve
last quarter’s
guidance of
negative
50 million of PBT annually.
Across GWM, as mentioned last quarter,
we continue to initially expect net interest
income to trough around
the
middle
of
next
year
based
on
current
implied
forwards.
With our
4Q
results,
and
after
completing our
planning process, we intend to offer more developed insight into our 2025
expectations for GWM NII.
Operating expenses
increased
by
3%
compared
to
last
year
and
1%
sequentially.
Excluding
compensation-
related and
currency translation
effects, underlying
operating expenses
dropped by
4% compared
to the
second
quarter.
As highlighted previously,
the ongoing client account and platform migration
work is expected to be
a significant driver of cost reductions in GWM by
the middle of 2025 and into 2026.
Slide 12 – Personal & Corporate Banking (CHF)
Turning to Personal and Corporate Banking on slide 12.
P&C
delivered
third
quarter pre
-tax
profit
of
659 million
Swiss
francs,
down
7%.
Revenues
decreased
by
a
similar level, mainly as
NII dropped by
11% as the prior
-year quarter featured substantially higher
Swiss franc
interest
rates. Recurring
net fee
income increased
by 5%
on higher
custody assets,
while transaction-based
revenues were down
5% mainly
from lower
corporate activity, including
in trade
finance, partly
offset by
higher
card fees.
NII decreased by 2%
sequentially,
mainly driven by the effect
of the SNB’s second 25
basis point interest rate
cut in
June and
partly offset
by the
benefits of
our balance
sheet optimization
efforts, which
remain key
to
building back returns to pre-acquisition levels.
9
This work, which continues
to contribute to improved
revenues on capital deployed
and fixing the funding
gap
inherited from Credit Suisse,
came at the expense of
net new lending outflows of 5.6 billion
Swiss francs this
quarter.
I would highlight that P&C’s contribution to our commitment in
Switzerland to maintain a loan book
of 350 billion Swiss francs
was evidenced by around 25 billion
in loans granted or
renewed during the quarter.
In the
fourth quarter,
we expect NII
to tick
down sequentially by
a low
single-digit percentage
both in
Swiss
francs and
US dollars
as the
effects of
the SNB’s
third 25
basis-point rate
cut in
September are
expected to
more than offset improved lending
revenues from our re-pricing efforts
and lower funding costs. Considering
competitive dynamics
in Switzerland
as well
as the
measured pace
of accommodation
in the
Swiss central
bank’s
monetary policy, our objective is to protect client deposit balances. Hence, our
guidance for the fourth quarter
reflects only a slight increase in deposit beta.
As mentioned last quarter, with Swiss franc interest rates stabilizing by mid next
year based on current implied
forwards, we
continue to
expect net
interest income
in P&C
to trough
shortly thereafter. We
will offer
additional
insights into our 2025 expectations for P&C
NII next quarter.
Credit loss expense was
71 million, driven by
several positions in
our corporate loan
book, mainly on the
Credit
Suisse platform.
For the
foreseeable future,
we expect
CLE to
remain at
broadly similar
levels given
the persistent
relative strength of the
Swiss franc and
some economic
softness in the
main Swiss export
markets, contributing
to an already muted domestic economic outlook.
Operating expenses in P&C were broadly flat year-on-year and down 1% quarter-on-quarter.
Slide 13 – Asset Management
On slide 13, pre-tax profit in Asset Management increased by 46% to
237 million with revenues up 13%. Our
asset management franchise is making visible progress
in advancing its strategy of offering
differentiated and
tailored client
solutions at
scale. Complementing this
is a
high level
of focus
on streamlining
the operational
backbone of the division as well as exiting
non-strategic businesses.
Results in the
quarter include gains of
72 million from disposals,
largely related to
the residual
portion of the
sale
of
our
Brazilian
real
estate
fund
management
business.
Excluding
these
gains,
Asset
Management’s
revenues were up by 3% year-on-year.
Net management fees were broadly
flat as higher average invested assets and
the effect of a revaluation
of a
real estate fund offset ongoing margin compression from clients rotating into lower-margin
products.
Performance fees were 46
million compared to 18 million
in the prior year
quarter driven by higher
revenues in
our hedge fund businesses and Fixed Income.
Net
new
money
in
the
quarter
was
positive
2 billion,
with
strong
inflows
in
Money
Markets
and
positive
contribution from our China JVs, more than offsetting outflows in Equities.
Operating expenses
were 4% higher
as cost reductions
from lower headcount
were more than
offset by higher
personnel and litigation expenses.
Slide 14 – Investment Bank
On to our Investment Bank’s performance on slide
14.
The IB
continued to build
revenue momentum
leveraging the
investments in
teams and
capabilities acquired
with Credit Suisse and delivered another strong set of results with pre-tax profit of 377
million in the quarter.
10
Revenues increased
by
29% to
2.5 billion
with Global
Markets posting
its
best third
quarter on
record
and
supported by solid performance in Global Banking.
Banking revenues increased by
21% to 555 million
as we leveraged the
increased breadth of our franchise
and
solidified growth
achieved over
the last
several quarters.
Our
investments in
talent and
integrated coverage
teams are paying off as we have gained meaningful market
share in a number of key sectors.
Regionally,
APAC
delivered its best
third quarter
on record
in M&A,
more than doubling
total revenues from
the prior year quarter, while Banking revenues in the US were up by around 20%.
In
Advisory we
delivered
top
line
growth
of
13%
and
further
market
share
gains in
M&A.
Capital
Markets
revenues rose by 28% with increases across all product groups.
Looking ahead, we remain
encouraged by the strength
of our pipeline, which
should support our performance
into 2025. We also maintain a top-ten ranking across the
street in announced M&A volume.
Revenues in Markets
increased by 31% to
1.9 billion, driven by
client activity and
the strength of our
expanded
franchise. We saw
increases across all
regions, and notably
in the Americas,
where revenues were
up by around
60%.
Equities revenues were up
by 33%, supported
by higher constructive
volatility. Our Equity Derivatives and
Cash
Equities businesses each delivered their best third quarter
on record.
FRC was up by 26% with double-digit growth in FX and
rates, as we benefitted from increased client activity,
albeit against a softer comparative quarter
a year ago.
Operating expenses rose by 2%, and were broadly flat excluding
currency effects.
Slide 15 – Non-core and Legacy
Moving to Slide 15.
Non-core and Legacy’s pre-tax loss in
the quarter was 333 million, with
262 million in revenues, primarily
from
position exit gains in securitized products partly offset by net
losses in macro.
Excluding litigation, operating expenses were down
by over 40% year-on-year, and up 1% sequentially.
In the fourth quarter,
we expect NCL to generate a pre-tax loss broadly in line with the guidance we provided
with our 2Q24 earnings.
Slide 16 – Non-core and Legacy run-down ahead of schedule
Now onto
Slide 16.
In the
quarter NCL
reduced RWA and
LRD by
5 and
11 billion, respectively. Since the
second
quarter last year,
NCL has freed up
almost 6 billion of capital by
reducing its RWA
by around half and its
LRD
by two thirds. It also halved its cost base in that
time.
This progress to-date puts us nearly
a year ahead of our
de-risking schedule, including
closing over 50% of
the
14 thousand books we started with. By the end
of 2026 we aim to have less than
5% remaining.
As
the
chart illustrates,
solely
by
letting
the
portfolio naturally
run-off,
we
would
already
broadly
meet our
current ambition to reduce NCL to 5% of Group RWA by 2026.
11
This impressive result is
testament to the
skillful work delivered by
the NCL team
over the past
5 quarters. After
completing our planning process, we’ll provide an
update to our NCL ambitions through 2026
with our fourth
quarter results in February.
Recapping the
quarter,
we showcased
the strengths
and long-term
strategic advantages
of our
franchise by
building on positive client momentum and delivering
strong underlying profitability.
We continued to make impressive progress in integrating Credit Suisse as we’ve successfully embarked on the
next critical phase of our integration journey.
With a strong capital and
liquidity position, and a balance
sheet for all seasons, we
remain well positioned to
continue delivering for our clients and generating
attractive shareholder returns while investing
for our future.
With that, let’s open for questions.
12
Analyst Q&A (CEO
and CFO)
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Yes, thanks for taking my questions. The
first question is on buyback
in 2025. The second quarter stage,
you
were not commenting yet on buyback. Clearly, that changed at a recent conference and reconfirming this,
Sergio, today as well. I just wanted to
understand what the thinking is in terms
of changing the buyback
view in 2025 and how that fits into
the regulatory regime changes that might
come in the future. And
in
that context, if you could
just also indicate if you will make any
comments with the full-year results, as you
will give us a buyback for 2025, how that
fits with regulatory changes, especially I’m referring to the
parent
bank capital issue?
And then the second question is on US wealth
management. Are you seeing a peak in yield-seeking
from
depositors at this
point? And we're hearing
from US peers that there are some
stabilization in sweep
accounts. So I'm just trying to understand
how lower rates will impact sweep, but
also potentially impact
loan growth, as I can see it's flattish in the quarter.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Okay. Thanks, Kian. Well, look, if I – if you
go back into our remarks, my remarks,
in the past, I always
clearly stated that starting a buyback
program in 2024 would be at the start
of a journey that would
not be
a stop-and-go kind of strategy. So I always, and we always, flagged the fact
that in 2025 we would have a
share buyback. Now we are reiterating that guidance by saying that
we do expect in the early part of 2025,
as we present Q4 results, to tell, like we did this year, the amount of ambitions or the size of the ambitions
we have for 2025. So in that sense, I think that's
– I just – we are just reiterating our commitments, also in
respect of our ambitions for 2026 is that, of course,
they are subject to requirements
– potential new
requirements in Switzerland, and then we will assess.
But our ambition is to have similar returns
we had
before the acquisition by 2026.
Now for 2025, early 2025, your question,
are we going to have more clarity? I don't know. We are not
really in control of the timing. I
think, I suspect, that we won't
be able give a
lot of guidance on that –
in
that sense, because, as you know, we are still going through technical discussions.
The consultation process
probably is gonna start late this year or even in the
early part of next year and is gonna to take a few– few
months, so it's very unlikely that in February
we will be able to give much more clarity
on this topic. And so
this is very unlikely then to affect 2025 capital
returns ambitions.
And, you know, that also implies that there is no change in terms of the parent
bank. As you saw, our
parent bank, our overall capital position
it's very strong.
And also, when you look at
our parent bank capital
at 13.3% is very solid,
is already on a fully applied basis and with a methodology
on how we look at
valuation of assets and subsidiaries, that is quite
conservative definitely compared to what we
saw in the
past.
13
Todd
Tuckner
Hi, Kian. Regarding your second
question, in terms of
lower rates and impact on
our US wealth business. So
first on the loan side, absolutely I would expect
across the division that lower rates will – and I made
this
comment earlier in my remarks – you know, should spur additional
lending opportunities across the
division, including in the US. On the deposit
side, in particular on sweeps, so first
I'd say a couple of things,
that we are seeing sweep deposits
continue to taper. But in the
quarter, we did have smaller outflows, so
still about a billion of outflows.
You know,
I'd say that some of the market
dynamics that I see in this
regard, you know, one is that we're not yet pricing sweeps higher versus
maybe some of the peer set are
doing.
Secondly, you know,
we have a higher percentage of assets with ultra-high
net worth. And for sure, that
asset band tends to have a much lower percentage
of AuM in sweeps. So that's going to be a
market
dynamic for us that will always weigh on, you
know, that, that sensitivity, just given that with a more high
net worth client base where there's more sensitivity
in terms of deposit pricing,
you know, naturally then
there'll be lower balances
and sweeps. That said, you know, I expect as rates come down that
we will see –
we will continue to see sweeps balance taper, if not starting to grow.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Thank you.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Yes, so good morning, everybody. Just two questions from me.
So 2025 profitability, you've guided for high
single-digit return on core tier 1. Consensus is at 9%.
You're
already at 9.2% in the nine-month stage this
year. So how should we be thinking about the outlook for returns and earnings
growth in ‘25 versus ‘24?
And also, any specific items to be aware of in the fourth
quarter that could bring the ‘24 return on core tier
1 down meaningfully from what we've seen so far
this year?
And then second, and again, it's
a bit of a follow
up on US wealth. So 12%
pre-tax margin in the
quarter,
are there any one-offs in that number? And you've highlighted
before your desire to bring, you know, a
broader suite of products and capabilities to clients to
drive that margin up towards the mid-teens target.
What are the key signposts we should look out
for you to sort of be delivering
on that strategy? And given
the comments yesterday from Colm on M&A,
how does M&A fit into that strategy
as well? Thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Chris. So maybe just address your second question initially. Just in terms of the pre-tax profit in the
Americas region. No, no one-offs. Just, you know, I would comment that, first
of all, strongest revenue
quarter ever. So there, you know, certainly seeing that as a strength. You
know, we continue to see revenues
growing nicely, up 3% sequentially in the region and 9% year-on-year and so, no one-offs. You see as well, I
highlighted in my
comments the transaction
revenues continue to be a real plus
for us, you know, as we
borrowed a page from our strategy outside the US in terms
of working hand in hand with the IB and
working
with clients and bringing them our product shelf
in transactions. So really generating good transactional
growth in that respect.
14
Look, we're going to – we know what we need to do and we're going to stay focused on continuing
to,
you know, chip away at our goals.
It's not going to happen overnight
and we'll continue to come back and
talk about, you know – in fact in the fourth
quarter, we'll
give more of a perspective on how we see things
and the signposts you can look to.
In terms of 2025 and, you
know, I'd say, you know, first off, you know, if
you look out into
4Q, you asked, I mean, other than
the, you know, the seasonality that we highlighted in
the fourth quarter, a bit on the top line that you would normally see, despite the
momentum we saw
coming into 4Q. Also, a
little bit on the expense side, as
I highlighted in my comments, a bit of the,
you
know, somewhat seasonal uptick and some one-offs like the UK bank levy. But away from that, no, I mean,
nothing that we're seeing, and nothing
on the CET1 capital ratio
that I would – that I would highlight.
You
know, as we look out, you know, I don't think we want – we don't think it's appropriate to draw
a straight
line or extrapolate from the strong return on CET1 we've
generated this year. I think we just have to keep
doing the things that we said we're going to do. We know we have costs that have to continue to come
out at this point. That's
going to be the biggest driver
of getting us to a cost-income
ratio below 70%
and
returns to around 15% by the end of 2026.
We know that's the ambition for us and we're going to work
over the next two years to get there. But, you know, at this point, I wouldn't
extrapolate necessarily from
our ’24 performance to draw a line into ‘25.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Okay. Thanks very much.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Yes, hi. Good morning. So two questions from me. Todd, you mentioned some balance sheet optimization
efforts that have lifted
revenues over RWAs
by 3 percentage
points. I was wondering if you
could shed some
light on, you know, these measures and how much
is left to come? I think in Q4, you highlighted
some NII
[
Edit: NNA
]
impact, and I was wondering how much
of that has already come through?
And then aside from the quarter, and going back to the US wealth business, in
my understanding, once you
get to 15% PBT and once you have done with
the CS integration, you could consider some
inorganic growth
opportunity to further improve margins. But
isn't this at odds with
the Too Big to Fail proposal the way
it is
written at the
moment, which sort of penalizes growth in foreign subsidiaries?
And how do you square the
two? Thank you.
15
Todd
Tuckner
Hi, Giulia. Yeah, so on the balance sheet optimization,
yeah, thanks. Thanks for
recalling that point in
my
remarks, was, that is something
we're, you know, quite proud of, that work which
is driving up the, you
know, the efficiency on the capital deployed in the businesses
that we inherited. And so this has been
a big
piece of work that's been driven by the business
– really across the entire business. And so the impact is
appreciable as you saw. So just some insight into it, so – and I've talked about
this a bit before, but
effectively, you know,
when we look at the capital deployed
typically around lending relationships that had
been largely inherited – albeit we can look at
still, you know, the ones that are more heritage UBS as well,
you know, to the extent that they're sub-hurdle – we've been taking the
steps to drive additional
revenues,
you know, through repricing efforts, but importantly, to expand the product shelf
and offering available to
those clients who might be monoline clients.
And so that's been a big effort and you could see
that in the
uptick in the revenue over RWA as we expand effectively the offering to those clients
who may have just
been clients who were, you know, had a loan with us, with Credit Suisse, and
now have a much broader
array. And so, you know, it's a win-win as we bring a lot of value. I mentioned the
impact on net new assets
because naturally, as you attempt to optimize the balance
sheet, while we've been
successful, there will be
times when you try to
reprice that, you know, there will be clients, and in
particular securities, leaving the
platform. And so that's where the NNA headwind
is that I talked about that we're capturing in our
otherwise impressive net new asset performance
in the quarter.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Yeah. Giulia, on the second question, I think that first of all, I think it would be
premature to draw a
conclusion around what the new
regulation will be. Having said
that, you have
to balance that, you know,
one aspect that has been clearly
outlined by the Swiss Federal Council proposal
is that their intention, or
their desire, to keep Switzerland, and broadly speaking,
also UBS, as a competitive global player. So I can't
really see how this is possible with the, you know, with a regime that would
penalize expansion globally. So
in that sense, I think it's,
we – as we mentioned before, we do believe that
whatever the new regime will
be, it will be something that fits into this strategic
direction outlined by the Federal Council, and a desire to
correct some aspect of the current regulation, which broadly
speaking, is a very
strong regulation, one of
the most demanding ones
when fully applied and consistently
applied. That was not the case in
the Credit
Suisse situation. UBS is a completely different situation.
We believe we have a very strong capital position, a
balance sheet for all seasons, and we are able to
sustain both a global business model, but
also staying very
close to our own markets
and sustain the economy. So, you know, when we have all the
facts, we will draw
strategic conclusions on what to do. It's
now premature to do that.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Thank you.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous
Hi, good morning and thank
you very much for taking
my questions. The first one I wanted
to ask is, I
noticed that your sensitivity to a downward shift
of the yield curve has actually come down
a lot. In the
second quarter, you guided for minus 1.5 billion. Now it's only 300 million, and that
is despite the fact that
the rate environment hasn't changed dramatically during
the third quarter. Could you maybe explain what
has changed then?
16
And another question not directly related to the results, but there were stories that
you might be interested
in some kind of joint venture in India, potentially with
a player called 360 ONE. You may not be able to
comment on this specifically, but hypothetically, would this be indicative of any strategic
desire to shift more
onshore and more into potentially
lower wealth brackets if you contemplate
such a move? Thank you very
much.
Todd
Tuckner
Hey, Stefan. How are you? On the first
– yeah, good spot. So the – that asymmetry
is a function of now, in
the lower interest rate environment in Swiss franc terms,
it's just the loan flooring dynamics that
come into
play from negative interest rates.
So you see that the down
100 basis points scenario
will have a much
more
limited impact, or an asymmetrical
impact to the up 100 basis point impact, in
particular in Swissy.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Yeah. And on the second question, you're right, we are
not going to comment
on any speculations
or
rumors, but, you know, we do believe that
Asia-PAC is a growth business. We have now a
stronger presence
in India thanks to the combination
of the UBS and Credit Suisse capabilities. We always look at
ways to
enhance our businesses in each key locations where
we operate, but I wouldn't draw a conclusion
that we
are thinking about major strategic moves in terms
of segment focus at this stage.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
Morning. Thank you. Just a couple
of follow ups on wealth management actually
and they’re both things
that you've touched on, but I
just want to get into a bit
more detail. The first one was
on advisor numbers,
which are coming down a little bit
more, sort of as expected in
this quarter. But I just wondered where you
are in that process and what the
outlook is for, you know,
how much more reduction in advisor numbers do
you expect? And is there a point at which that returns to growth mode, or does it
stay in optimization mode
for a continued period of time? So, advisor
numbers.
And then the second question was
just to talk a bit more about Asia
in wealth management.
You referred to
the stimulus, you referred to the pickup in transaction
activity, so I just wondered where you think we are in
that process? And for example,
whether you're seeing signs of re-leveraging
and just how
much improvement
you see ahead of us in that Asia process?
Todd
Tuckner
Hi, Jeremy. Yeah.
So first on Asia. Yeah, we're really pleased with the performance in GWM APAC and
thanks for recognizing that
as well. You know, you see the sequential progress, this, you know, having
transaction-based income up in 3Q versus 2Q,
really proud of that result. And then you see the year-on-
year quite strong. You know,
in terms of where we are, I think, you know, this –
we have, I would argue
we have a long road ahead in the sense
of good upside, just given that, you know, the business is first
coming together now on the same platform.
I mean, we shouldn't underestimate the importance
of that.
You know,
with the Hong Kong client account
migration just having been
completed this past weekend,
and we're looking forward
to Singapore and Japan in the fourth quarter.
17
I mean, these are things that are really going to just further bring the
business together. And, you know, I
think from here, lower rates, you know, let's see, but re-leveraging opportunity, as you mentioned, the
business is very focused. I
think the business is, you know, is positioning
itself to fire on
all cylinders in
APAC. And I'm very, very bullish about that. So in terms of where we are in the process, I think, you know,
obviously it's been a good backdrop in this last quarter, but I think there are really good things ahead.
In terms of the advisor numbers, I would sort
of, you know, look at that in two ways. First, you know, on
the non-US or what we call the Swiss and International
part of GWM, you know, I would say from an
advisor perspective, it is still – optimization’s
probably the word – to come together. I think, you know, it's –
lion's share of that's been complete.
You know, I've talked about the Credit Suisse client advisors
leaving for
some period of time, and that's been an old
story, and it's just really the tail of it that we talk about maybe
as a headwind a bit, on net
new assets. But in
terms of the advisor headcount, you
know, I just see the
teams as they come
together as well once all the platform
work is complete, you know, I think then we get
to a point and that of stability, and from there the business can make targeted
investments in specific
regions to grow for sure, but to already leverage at scale.
I think the US we need to,
a bit, take a wait-and-see,
and see what the leadership comes
back with a bit
and they – as they do their
strategic reviews and we'll talk
– Sergio and I will come out
and talk a bit in the
fourth quarter about that. You know, I think, you know, it has been a story of somewhat trying to get
more productive with a smaller advisor workforce over
a number of years. And
we'll have to see
if that's,
you know, the direction of travel that the current leadership
wants to go.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
Great. Thank you.
Amit Goel, Mediobanca
Hi. Thank you. Yeah. So two questions for me, also one on the US wealth business. I found it really
interesting, the commentary about potentially looking
at acquisitions. I guess what I'm just wondering
is
then, you know, from a strategy standpoint, if part of the
issue in terms of operating
margin is the scale
and
the cost base relative to
the revenues, you know, is it now then
the case that it's
cheaper to acquire than to
simply just hire? Because, you
know, the US, you know, as you say, is, the focus has been on productivity,
reducing FA numbers. So I'm just trying to think, is that because, you know, these 400% recruitment deals
are now just too expensive to make it worthwhile,
but it's actually just cheaper to buy an organization?
And then secondly, just going back on the
deposits and the roll-off of the
fixed term deposits
within wealth,
I'm just curious, were those kind of written
12 months ago and, you
know, were those done at, kind of, quite
high rates? So just curious if there's also potentially
some of that effect into Q4 and start of next
year? Thank
you.
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Amit. Yeah.
So on the deposits question,
yeah, these were written, you know, basically they're –
they have a year maturity
so you start to
see, we start in 2Q already, ones that were written just in
the wake
of the acquisition, you know, all the way through, I would say, you know, the end of the year of 2023 into
the very beginning of this year. And they had – they were competitive in terms
of pricing for sure, as part
of, you know, stabilizing the franchise and engaging with clients.
So for sure and so now as they mature,
you know, the question, and that's what I've been highlighting
in the last couple of
quarters, the question
becomes, you know, what we call landing, we refer to them as landing those
deposits in the sense of
converting them into other parts of
the platform as we've been doing successfully.
18
Retaining is the key, you know, is the key objective and
retaining them in a more profitable
manner. We're
doing that quite successfully, but it's a headwind on NNA that we've absorbed, in
these NNA metrics that
I've been highlighting insofar as you know, there is still some that
are leaving the platform.
In terms of the
outlook we still see elevated, I think 3Q is the
peak, but we still see elevated
maturing FTDs in the fourth
quarter and into the front part of the first quarter
before, you know, we could get this issue a bit in the
rearview.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Well, in respect, again, I guess
on this
potential inorganic thing, you know, I have to say
that Colm made it
very clear that it's not
a tomorrow-morning
kind of issue, so I think
it's totally premature to speculate how –
if and how – we would do any such a move.
Our priority right now is to improve what we
do in the US,
bringing the margins to, narrowing the
margins to our peers
and doing better what we have
today, and
then potentially by doing that, and
we're going to create also the
optionality and to
really choose what is –
fits best, is it
an organic growth or is it inorganic, and
what fits the best in our business model, which
is
asset gathering-centric.
The scale issue in the US is
pretty much driven by the
fact that we have a banking
platform, a G-SIB
platform de facto as – through the intermediate
holding company – that can accommodate
different
banking businesses, which we don't have.
So again, I think that, you
know, once we finish this chapter of
restoring the profitability at the levels we want to be,
and we fully extract the value of our investments
in
the Investment Bank and the collaboration
between the Investment
Bank and Wealth
Management and
Asset Management, we
will determine the next phase. Now, it's really way too early to speculate.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Hi. Yeah, thank you very much for taking my question. Just two small ones on capital,
please. The first one is
on the core tier 1 ratio staying, I mean ex the accelerated
amortization, stable quarter-on-quarter. And that's
in spite of a really strong, like, profit capital generation. I mean,
I realized there are a number of things
going on, including FX, but is there something else
we should keep in mind
that only means the capital ratio
is flat or you're investing more
capital into organic growth? Otherwise, I guess
given the strong earnings, the
expectation will be the capital generation
drives the ratio
higher.
And then secondly, just on the Basel IV impact,
just to confirm, would that be
at the UBS AG, would the
impact be around 30 basis points as well? Thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Hi Anke. Yeah. So on the first – on your first question in terms of the capital
accretion, ex the acceleration of
transitional adjustment, I think there
are a few factors
to consider. You
know, one is the FX sensy, I mean you
mentioned that, but you know we disclosed
that there is an FX sensy of
18 basis points on our capital with
respect to a 10% depreciation in the dollar, you know, versus our major currencies. If you look at – if you
look at currencies in 3Q in particular, the Swissy dollar was down around 6% from the beginning of the
quarter until the end. And the pound versus
the dollar, similar dynamic. So that accounts for, you know, close
to 0.1% on the capital ratio that the currency effects this quarter
as you mentioned so that's one piece.
Another piece is just the
temporary difference
deferred tax assets, you know, given the reduction in the
CET1 level of capital from the acceleration,
we are at the 10% threshold. So we lose a bit, you know, goes
over the 10% and therefore lose the benefit
of the temp difference DTA, which has a
modest impact. And
then third, just slightly increasing
the accrual for future award hedging, future share award hedges. That's
in
our capital so that also has an impact.
So those all contribute to probably why you would
have expected
maybe on net profit, other things equal, to be potentially
slightly above the 15 handle.
19
Anke Reingen, RBC
Ok, thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Sorry, on the Basel III final impact on the parent bank. It won't be the entire 30 basis points affecting the
parent bank but it should be most of – the most
of it, there might be some that falls outside. But again,
if
you're talking also the parent bank standalone, it won't
be all of it because still a fair bit of activity that's
subject to the Basel III changes, you know, are happening in subsidiaries,
not in the parent bank itself. So I
would expect that there'll be some but not all of the
30 basis point impact in the parent bank itself.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you very
much.
Andrew Coombs, Citi
Hi, good morning. Thanks for
taking my questions. A couple, both related to revenues.
Firstly, coming back to
the US sweep deposits and repricing. Thank you firstly
for the additional color around the slightly less than
50
million PBT impact. But can I ask if you could possibly
break out revenue gross impact versus the cost save
offset on that? And also, do the class action suits
in the SEC probe have any implications on pricing
dynamics
in your mind for the industry as well as for
you going forward?
And then the second question actually on
loans, if you adjust out for FX, you've seen
a CHF 10 billion decline
Q-on-Q. You reiterated this point about committing to CHF 350 billion loan book across P&C
and GWM
Switzerland. You're now running a bit below that, I think you’re closer to CHF 340 [billion].
So, just to be
clear, is the CHF 350 [billion] a commitment throughout this period or is it a case of you
expect to trend down
and then recover back to that CHF 350 [billion]? Thank
you.
Todd
Tuckner
Hey, Andrew.
So on the second one, look, it's a commitment
you know to maintain around that level. So,
you
know, we've been doing the balance sheet work that I've been highlighting
in my remarks, both in P&C and
GWM. And, you know, in P&C, we actually saw net new loan outflows,
as I highlighted, of about
CHF 6 billion this quarter. This is a commitment that we've made to the market and
you can look at that as
an ambition that we’ll continue to focus
on and commit to. But, of course, we're also running
the business so
there might be volatility quarter-on-quarter on that.
In terms of – in terms of the sweep, you were looking
for some more information. You know, I had
mentioned in the past that, look, the gross would be
a low single-digit percentage of the divisional net
interest income. So with you know, that was even based on where rates were when we gave
the guidance
last quarter so as rates now are coming in, you know, as mentioned, that will
have a lower impact on the
gross as well as a lower impact on the net. That should
give you, though, a general sense of the impact.
20
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Yes. Good morning. Two
questions, please, from my side. First on Investment
Bank. You outperformed across
equities and fixed income, would just be interested
in a bit more color, what you attribute to between the
two? Is it lower base, is Credit Suisse now fully at revenue run
rate or business mix? Anything else you
would
flag?
And then secondly, GWM and also P&C net interest income outperformed your own
guidance. Just
wondering why that was in your view and
why the Q4 guidance could be conservative
or not? So what could
be worse this time? Thank you.
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Benjamin. So on the second, in terms of, you know, our guidance last quarter, we extended
duration of our equity and we saw higher reinvestment
income as I highlighted in my comments and that
had, you know, a positive effect on GWM's NII. And therefore we came in flattish versus
sort of a low-to-mid
guidance. So, that would explain that. On the
P&C side, I think we saw some positive
effects of the balance
sheet optimization work that had, you know, a strong impact in the third quarter
as an offset to the rate
impact as I highlighted. So those were – there were some offsets that, which
we're always working obviously
to drive in this lower rates environment. There were some offsets that had us
outperform in the quarter. So I
mean, the guidance I gave for 4Q is how we
see it at the moment, largely driven by
the impact of rates. But
of course, we're going to always look to drive offsets
where we can.
In terms of the IB, you know, I'd say, you know,
the – on the Markets side, I mean it's
effectively the you
know, the Credit Suisse team has been embedded for some time. The positions
have been all largely
transitioned over. So it's you know, it's all steam and full steam ahead in terms of that. Credit Suisse is
supporting Markets on the research side but yeah, it's
the performance I would say, is not about it being a
lower base. I think in Markets it's been about
a team that's – a strong team that's gotten stronger and you
see in supportive markets how the team
is performing.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Thank you.
Piers Brown, HSBC
Good morning, guys. Just got two
questions. One is a follow-up on the previous investment
bank question.
But in terms of the global banking business,
I mean, you're still showing good year-over-year momentum, but
much weaker quarter-on-quarter I think as you guided into 3Q.
But could you just talk about how you're
thinking about execution of the pipeline, given
market conditions in the fourth quarter and
prospect of
further volatility?
And then the second question is on NCL so,
again, as you've guided the slowing of the
pace of RWA growth,
you're about just under 5 billion this quarter from 8 billion
last quarter and 16 billion in the third – in the first
quarter. So would it be fair to draw from that, that the opportunities to actively run off the portfolio are fairly
limited at this stage and we're really on to a natural roll off path from here? Thanks.
21
Todd
Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Piers. So on the second look, you know, Sergio and I have said consistently that in NCL we're going
to prioritize cost takeout in the way we
think about de-risking the book. That still
is the team's focus. You
know, it's had a great run and continued to do so in 3Q with de-risking
another 5 billion of RWA, you know,
so I mean, I wouldn't necessarily draw conclusions
other than to say that the pace that they
were running at
is a pace that would be very hard to sustain, given
that we had, you know, we articulated ambitions for the
end of 2026 that they've been making quick
work at. But – and we'll come back and re-guide as
I mentioned
in my comments in 4Q about how we
see the next two years. But certainly you, you
can't draw a straight line
from the performance that they've had, you know, live-to-date.
In terms of the Banking performance in the
quarter. Look, I still think it was a good performance. It
outperformed the fee pool. We had a very strong first
half of the year. 2Q was exceptionally strong. We had a
bit of bring forward as well of some deals that we were
able to get done in 2Q. And probably had the inverse
dynamic happening in 3Q, where we had some deals,
you know, pushed into the fourth quarter and those
deals on the margin can make a difference on the performance
in the comparative.
But we remain very, very bullish on the pipeline. You know,
naturally, of course, the uncertainties that we
highlighted in our comments about 4Q, you
know, are clearly potential issues to navigate, i.e., the US
elections, other geopolitical concerns
and tensions that may impact on banking overall.
But I think, you know,
we're going to continue to gain market share. And, you know, we're bullish on Banking's
ability to execute
on its pipeline.
Sergio P.
Ermotti
Todd,
I would only maybe add to that. From a comparison
standpoint of view, it's worthwhile to note that
strategically we are underweight in debt capital markets.
So, in a sense, when you look at the performance,
you have to look at the third quarter was a pretty strong quarter for
debt capital markets. So I think that we
are very happy with the developments that we've seen
in Banking and the ability to win mandates.
Now, of
course, we need to see if we can execute
it if the market will – if the market will be
there, but just very, very
confident that it's a good momentum.
So that was the last question so thanks for
dialing in and for your questions and
we'll catch up in February for
the Q4 results, and we're going to give you also an update
on our 2025 and 2026 journey. Thank you.
22
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Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the
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UBS Group AG
By:
/s/ David Kelly
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Name:
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Title:
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By:
/s/ Ella Campi
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Name:
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Title:
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UBS AG
By:
/s/ David Kelly
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Name:
David Kelly
Title:
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By:
/s/ Ella Campi
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Date:
November 1, 2024