Earnings Call Transcript
Aon plc (AON)
Earnings Call Transcript - AON Q3 2025
Operator, Operator
Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon plc's Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. I would also like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at this time. It's important to note that some comments in today's call may include forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ significantly from historical results or expectations. For information regarding these risk factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and our most recent quarterly or annual SEC filings, all of which are available on our website. Now I am pleased to turn the call over to Greg Case, President and CEO of Aon plc.
Gregory Case, CEO
Thank you, and good morning, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. I'm joined today by Edmund Reese, our CFO. The financial presentation, which Edmund will reference in his remarks, is posted on our website. To begin today, we want to recognize the great trauma and suffering resulting from Hurricane Melissa. We're thinking about everyone affected by this terrible catastrophe, and we feel very, very humble and hopeful that the work Aon undertook with the World Bank to arrange a cap bond for the government of Jamaica will help accelerate and support recovery. Turning now to Aon. Our third quarter results reflect another quarter defined by continued acceleration of our Aon United strategy, great progress executing our 3x3 Plan and financial model, and ongoing momentum as we head into the final months of the year. Our focus on execution is translating into value delivery to our clients while at the same time producing results for our firm and strong financial performance. We're winning more in the core by deepening relationships with existing clients through data-led solutions, capturing demand in existing markets by developing new capabilities for emerging risks and creating demand in new categories by innovating unique capital solutions. And we're strengthening our clients' insurance programs to ensure they're positioned well for the future with enhanced coverage and limits. Let's start with a look at our third quarter highlights. We delivered another strong quarter of financial results, highlighted by 7% organic revenue growth, a 26.3% adjusted operating margin, and 12% adjusted EPS growth, which keeps us on track to achieve our full-year objectives. Our continued success in winning new business and deepening client relationships reflects the strength of our risk capital and human capital capabilities powered by ABS. Simply put, our analytic capabilities enable smarter and faster decisions for clients, which, when coupled with our advisory expertise, helps clients capture greater opportunity. And while any firm can point to client wins, two highlights from this quarter truly demonstrate the impact of our differentiated strategy. The first example demonstrates how our advanced analytic capabilities were critical in securing our appointment as the captive insurance partner for a leading global logistics company, replacing a competitor relationship that spanned decades. Our ability to deliver global expertise with local leadership provided the client with relevant insights into captive management and their risk capital structure, making Aon the clear choice. In the second example, by demonstrating our distinctive client service and enterprise mindset to the enterprise client group, we not only retained but expanded our benefits work with a long-standing financial services client in an intensely competitive process. We leveraged deep industry knowledge in governance, risk management, and employee experience. This resulted in securing global benefits across new and existing geographies, U.S. H&B, and total benefits administration. Our proactive approach, combining innovation, analytics, and advisory continues to deliver measurable impact and positions us for sustained success as our solutions have never been more relevant for clients. Our latest 2025 Global Risk Management Survey revealed a significant shift in the risk landscape and how decision-makers are thinking about risk. Trade and geopolitical volatility entered the top 10 global risks for the first time in nearly two decades, reflecting growing global uncertainty. At the same time, climate risk and natural disasters also reached their highest-ever rankings, underscoring the need for resilience in a world where severe weather events are driving up costs. Workforce-related risks continue to have a growing impact on how employers manage affordability, access, and productivity. In addition, advancements in AI are surging demand for cloud infrastructure and are fueling unprecedented investment in data center construction with CapEx estimated to exceed $2 trillion globally over the next several years. These technological developments are not only reshaping physical infrastructure but also amplifying cyber and operational risk. Active risk management in this area has become a strategic necessity, and traditional approaches alone aren't sufficient to cover this risk. With connected risk capital and human capital capabilities, we're truly uniquely positioned to guide clients through a complex environment, access capital, unlock value, and build resilience. As we review our performance this quarter, several strategic milestones demonstrate progress on our 3x3 Plan. These achievements are the direct result of our team's dedication, collaboration, and focus on advancing priorities. First, talent remains a significant driver of sustained growth, and the competitive environment for attracting and retaining top performance is as intense as ever. No company is immune, which makes it essential to stay focused and deliberate in our approach. In this environment, our platform is a unique advantage in attracting talent and helping client-facing talent win more business and retain clients, especially in priority areas like construction, energy, and health. Revenue-generating talent is up 6% year-to-date, reflecting our strong position and differentiated capabilities. We have a great team, and we remain focused on continuing to strengthen it. Second, our enhanced capital strength gives us greater flexibility to execute our capital allocation strategy with discipline and precision. We divested the NFP Wealth business, an asset better suited to an owner prepared to make the capital investment required for long-term growth. At the same time, we remain highly committed to our core wealth and retirement offerings, which represent key components of our human capital value proposition. Also during the quarter, NFP closed more than $10 million in acquired EBITDA as part of programmatic M&A. We have a great pipeline of high-return middle market opportunities, and our improved capital position reinforces our commitment to long-term strategic investment and shareholder returns. And finally, equipped with better data and analytics built from years of investment, we're mobilizing capital into the industry, particularly to address the rapid expansion of data center construction driven by AI and cloud infrastructure adoption. As highlighted earlier, the opportunity here is monumental. Data center CapEx increased 50% in 2024 and is expected to increase significantly over the next several years as trillions of dollars of CapEx go into the construction of these facilities. Near term, we estimate data center demand could generate over $10 billion in new premium volume in 2026 alone. Our globally aligned risk capital and human capital teams are helping clients navigate this transformation and support stakeholders across the value chain from technology companies to contractors and operators to capital providers, each with unique insurance needs given their role in the data center development. While still early days, we're excited by the specific accomplishments that showcase our ability to help clients navigate this transformational opportunity. We recently became the risk partner for a leading global engineering-focused insurer with a mission to work with them to build a significantly greater level of insurance capacity. This work complements the launch of our data center life cycle insurance program, a proprietary multiline insurance facility that consolidates coverage for construction, cargo, cyber, and operational exposures and offers clients end-to-end risk management and insurance solutions. We're also working to support resilient design and engineering from the outset of these projects to optimize the industry's ability to provide the limits necessary for hyperscaler, data center development, and management of accumulation risk. Another example of how our global distribution analytics and expertise in both traditional and alternative risk transfer is already delivering results is a recent client win where we placed nearly $30 billion in coverage for a top global hyperscaler data center developer for operational data centers and data centers under construction. This is just the beginning. Overall, we accomplished a lot this quarter, and there's a lot to be energized by going forward. Our results and the momentum we have going into the final months of the year give us confidence in reaffirming our 2025 guidance. Let me conclude with two points. First, our Aon United strategy accelerated through the 3x3 Plan and the strength of our financial model are generating strong results today and building momentum for future success. Our unique capabilities and integrated solutions have never been more relevant to clients as we help them reduce volatility, protect their assets, and grow their businesses. We're attracting exceptional talent to strengthen our great team, delivering innovative new solutions with unmatched data and insights, and building and deepening client relationships. We're winning more in core markets, capturing new demand in existing markets, and creating new demand in new categories. And finally, and most importantly, to our over 60,000 colleagues around the world, thank you. Thank you for your commitment to our clients, to each other, and to our Aon United strategy. Your dedication is the driving force of our firm. Now let me turn the call over to Edmund for his reflections on the quarter and outlook for the year. Edmund?
Edmund Reese, CFO
Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to be here to discuss our third quarter results, which marked another quarter of disciplined execution on our 3x3 Plan and financial model. To frame our discussion, let me highlight the most important factors shaping our third quarter performance. First, our Q3 performance demonstrates continued momentum across the key drivers of sustainable top-line growth. Our investment in revenue-generating talent enhanced by ABS and our continued expansion in the middle market is translating into strong organic growth. Organic revenue growth of 7% in Q3 serves as another proof point in our ability to execute on each of these drivers, keeping us in line with or ahead of industry performance. Second, we continue to deliver scale improvements and operating leverage through ABS, while also investing in talent and capabilities that deepen client engagement and drive new business. We again delivered in Q3, expanding margins over 100 basis points and increasing our revenue-generating hires by 6%. Third, our enhanced earnings power, disciplined portfolio management, and strong free cash flow generation, up 13% in the quarter, have strengthened our capital position. Through three quarters in 2025, we have reduced debt and remain on track to achieve our leverage objectives, closed $32 million in EBITDA from middle market acquisition, and returned $1.2 billion in capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our strong capital position empowers us to pursue high-return inorganic investments, further accelerating and supplementing our organic growth momentum. Collectively, these three components: momentum on the growth drivers, accelerated scale benefits through ABS, and a robust capital position are delivering growth today and setting the foundation for future performance. We continue to invest in capabilities and innovate capital solutions that create even greater value for our clients. This gives us confidence not only in achieving our 2025 guidance but also in the upside potential of sustaining top-line growth and delivering double-digit free cash flow beyond 2025. Turning to the quarter's results. Organic revenue growth was 7% and total revenue increased 7% year-over-year to $4 billion. Adjusted operating margin expanded by 170 basis points over last year and reached 26.3%. Adjusted EPS was $3.05, and finally, free cash flow increased 13%. Let's get into the details of these results, starting with organic revenue growth. Organic revenue growth was 7% in the quarter, in line with our mid-single-digit or greater guidance range. Growth was broad-based, with 5% or better in each solution line, with two of our solution lines delivering 7% or greater, a strong result achieved despite pricing pressure in certain products and geographies, underscoring the contribution from new business and continued high retention. In Commercial Risk, 7% organic revenue growth reflected strong performance in our core P&C business globally, including double-digit growth in the U.S., with meaningful contributions from the middle market through NFP and continued strength in EMEA. M&A services continued to grow at a double-digit level, and its contribution provided an incremental lift. Construction also delivered double-digit growth, driven by demand from large-scale global infrastructure projects, including data center builds for major tech companies, reinforcing this category as a strategic priority. Reinsurance delivered 8% growth, driven by treaty placements and double-digit growth in facultative placements and the Strategy and Technology Group. Insurance-linked securities also had significant growth, but off a smaller baseline. While July 1 treaty property renewal rates were softer, this was balanced by higher limits and ongoing strength in international facultative markets, especially in EMEA. Demand for STG analytics remained high, underscoring our platform's increasing importance in supporting clients as they navigate volatility and match capital to risk. Health Solutions grew 6% this quarter, benefiting from data analytics-driven sales in our talent business and new business in our core health and benefits offerings across the U.S. and EMEA. As Greg mentioned, we continue to leverage our analytics and advisory capabilities to support employers as they navigate rising health care costs and achieve better outcomes for their workforces. Finally, Wealth generated 5% growth; the performance reflects strength in advisory work in the U.K. and EMEA related to ongoing regulatory change, partially offset by softer advisory demand in the U.S. Additionally, the NFP contribution was meaningful, driven by asset inflows and market performance. Importantly, for modeling purposes, I will add that we expect Wealth growth in Q4 to be 1% to 2%, impacted by delays in U.S. advisory work and the sale of the faster-growing NFP Wealth business, which closed yesterday. Let me take a moment to walk through the key components of our Q3 organic revenue growth. In Q3, we extended our consistent track record of strong new business generation to drive organic growth. For the second consecutive quarter, new business contributed 11 points to organic revenue growth with balanced contributions from both expansion with existing clients and new client wins. Our investments in revenue-generating talent, particularly in high-growth sectors like construction and energy, continue to deliver measurable impact. We remain proactive and on the front foot in attracting top talent. Our revenue-generating hires are up 6% year-to-date. Importantly, we're already seeing these new colleagues make contributions to new business growth. As the 2024 hiring cohort continues to ramp, we are confident this group will contribute 30 to 35 basis points to full-year organic revenue growth, leveraging advanced analytics and client engagement tools through Aon Business Services. The 11-point contribution from new business this quarter underscores the effectiveness of our investment in client-facing talent, and we expect continued momentum as the 2024 cohort seasons and the 2025 hires continue to onboard. Q3 '25 retention remains strong year-over-year, reflecting the continued strength and stability of our client relationships, supported by investments in enhanced service delivery, innovative capabilities, and Aon client leadership. Net new business contributed 5 points to organic revenue growth in the quarter. Net market impact, which captures the impact of rate and exposure, contributed just over 1 point to organic revenue growth, consistent with our 0 to 2-point estimated range. Rate pressure on property within Commercial Risk was offset with limit and coverage increases across cyber and other financial lines. Reinsurance net market impact was flat, as rate declines and higher retentions were mitigated by increased limits and facultative growth. Health Solutions continued to benefit from our ability to support clients managing rising health care costs, providing a significant contribution to net market impact. One final point on revenue: Third-quarter fiduciary investment income was $75 million, down 12% versus the prior year. While average balances increased, lower interest rates more than offset that benefit. Adjusted operating income increased 15% to $1.1 billion, and adjusted operating margin expanded 170 basis points to 26.3%. These results reflect strong top-line growth and the operating leverage in our business powered by ABS, giving us capacity to fund growth investments in client-facing talent and middle market while still expanding margins. When we provided full-year guidance, we highlighted four components that would impact 2025 margin expansion: NFP, fiduciary investment income, restructuring, and operating leverage; all four remain fully in line with our expectations. We have now fully lapped the headwind on margin from NFP, and we are on track to meet our $30 million OpEx synergies target, resulting in a net 20 basis point headwind from NFP for the year. While the outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts has shifted from two at the start of the year to three in the latest dot plot, the delayed timing of the first rate cut from June to September effectively offsets the additional reduction, and the margin impact from fiduciary investment income remains unchanged at 20 basis points. Restructuring savings totaled $35 million in the quarter, contributing approximately 90 basis points to adjusted operating margin. We remain firmly on track to deliver $150 million in restructuring savings for the full year and advancing toward our $350 million run-rate savings target by 2026. Moving to interest, other income, and taxes on Slide 9. Interest income was indiscernible in the third quarter and $4 million lower than last year. Interest expense came in at $206 million, $7 million lower than last year, primarily due to lower average debt balances. We expect Q4 interest expense to be approximately $200 million. Other expense was $13 million versus a $33 million benefit in Q3 '24, which included gains from the divestment of noncore personal lines and real estate advisory assets, partially offset by the remeasurement of balance sheet items in nonfunctional currencies. We estimate Q4 '25 other expense to range between $25 million and $30 million. And finally, the Q3 tax rate was 19.2%. Our full-year tax outlook remains unchanged at 19.5% to 20.5%. Turning now to free cash flow and capital allocation. We generated $1.1 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter, and year-to-date free cash flow of $1.9 billion is up 13% year-over-year. As we complete the NFP integration, we continue to expect strong adjusted operating income, including contributions from NFP and ongoing working capital improvements to drive double-digit free cash flow growth in 2025. And turning to capital on the right-hand side of the page. I noted earlier that we closed the sale of NFP Wealth. With over $2 billion in proceeds, the transaction significantly strengthens our capital position, and we approach the final months of the year in an even greater position of capital strength with enhanced flexibility. Importantly, we remain disciplined in allocating capital, balancing opportunities that meet our strategic and financial growth priorities with capital return to shareholders. This discipline reinforces our commitment to creating long-term shareholder value, and we continue to execute our capital allocation model in Q3 '25. We reduced our leverage ratio to 3.2x in Q3, remaining on track to reach 2.8x to 3.0x by the fourth quarter of 2025, consistent with our stated objective. We continued our programmatic tuck-in acquisitions, including middle market deals through NFP. Through nine months, NFP has closed $32 million of EBITDA. Following the NFP Wealth sale, we expect to close $35 million to $40 million in acquired EBITDA by year-end. The pipeline remains strong, primarily composed of U.S. P&C opportunities. Finally, we returned $411 million to shareholders in the quarter, including $250 million in share repurchases. With $750 million repurchased year-to-date, we remain on track for $1 billion in capital return through share repurchases for the full year 2025. Enabled by our high free cash flow generation. These actions demonstrate our disciplined capital allocation, reducing leverage, investing in high-return growth opportunities, and delivering meaningful capital return to shareholders. I will conclude my prepared remarks with our 2025 guidance and some forward-looking perspective on our growth objectives. We are reaffirming our full-year 2025 guidance, including organic revenue growth, mid-single-digit or greater, capturing the impact of our growth investments. Second, margin expansion, 80 to 90 basis points, including $260 million in cumulative annual savings from our Aon United restructuring initiative. Next, strong earnings growth supported by the scale improvements from ABS. I'll also note two additional points related to earnings. First, the sale of NFP Wealth is expected to have an immaterial impact on 2025 earnings growth. Second, we continue to expect an effective tax rate of 19.5% to 20.5% for the full year. For modeling purposes, we are estimating 7% to 9% adjusted EPS growth in Q4 '25. Finally, free cash flow, double-digit growth in 2025, demonstrating our ability to consistently convert our strong earnings into capital for investment and shareholder return. We entered the final stretch of the year with strong momentum, executing our 3x3 Plan and financial model to deliver results today. At the same time, scale improvements enabled by ABS, the cumulative impact of our growth investments, and our capital capacity are strengthening the foundation for future performance, positioning us for sustainable top-line growth and consistently strong earnings growth. This powerful combination gives us high conviction in our ability to create long-term value for shareholders. So with that, let's open the line for questions. Daryl, I'll turn it back to you.
Operator, Operator
Our first questions come from Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs.
Robert Cox, Analyst
Just first question on talent. The revenue-generating hires were up 6%, and it sounds like you're executing on that 40 basis points contribution to organic growth here in the back half of the year. If we start thinking about stacking the benefits from the 2024 hiring in 2025 cohorts, does that get us to something like roughly 80 basis points in 2026?
Edmund Reese, CFO
Rob, thank you for the question. Well, before even getting directly to the answer, the first thing, and Greg may comment on this, is that you see the headlines across our industry. It's clear that competitors are aggressive in their recruiting efforts. Given the expertise and attractiveness of our talent, we're not immune to that. So we continue to be super high focused on the investments right now. As I said in my prepared remarks, I think we're on the right foot. Through nine months, a 6% increase in revenue-generating hires, that's right in line with the 4% to 8% that we communicated during investment days. To your question, they are contributing right in line with our expectations on the full year, 30 to 35 basis points. There will be a cumulative impact when these 2024 cohorts ramp up. We will give specific guidance on the contribution from those hires when we come back in Q4 and talk about 2026. But the key point for us right now is that this is a significant contributor to the 11 points of new business contribution to organic revenue growth. They're performing right in line with our expectations in terms of incremental revenue and ramp-up time, and there will be a cumulative impact. We will give the results of that and an outlook on that when we get into 2026 guidance on Q4. But make no mistake about it, the investments in these client-facing talent are a key part of the growth strategy, particularly in the market that we have now.
Robert Cox, Analyst
That's helpful. I wanted to follow up on Commercial Risk, particularly in the U.S. business and core P&C. The double-digit growth seems to be much higher than what some of your competitors are experiencing. Can you elaborate on what factors are driving that excess growth? I know you mentioned data center construction and talent. Also, was this result at all influenced by multiyear policies?
Gregory Case, CEO
I appreciate the question, Robert. Regarding the growth results, we are seeing continued progress. We are currently halfway through executing our 3x3 Plan. When evaluating what we offer in terms of risk and human capital, significantly enhanced by Aon Business Services, it's important to remember that we provide tools and analytics that help clients make informed decisions, boost revenue, and improve client retention, while also offering some cost advantages. This focus on client impact is evident in our results, not just in the U.S. but globally, aligning with Edmund's commitment to achieve mid-single-digit growth or better every year. This is part of our regular operations, and I want to clarify that there's nothing particularly noteworthy to highlight outside our daily activities. We discuss M&A services, which showed progress but did not significantly influence the results; our success is rooted in our day-to-day engagements with clients. Notably, we achieved this amidst the broader market dynamics. As we've mentioned repeatedly, our strategy is not centered on unit pricing in isolated areas, which we can further discuss later in the call. The emphasis is really on the unique impact for each client, leveraging our analytics and dedicated team to create substantial outcomes. This approach is what drives our growth in the U.S. and internationally as well.
Edmund Reese, CFO
Greg is exactly right, Rob. We're pleased but not surprised by the strength in the Commercial Risk growth in Q3 because it's being driven by specific actions that we're taking, the durable growth drivers we talked about; 11 points of contribution at the company level. Within Commercial Risk itself, it was 11 points of contribution from new business. The retention was better year-over-year. That's driven by what Greg just talked about, the analyzers helping us win RFPs by ECG, our Enterprise Client Group and the tools that we have in ABS. The outlook and the results in this quarter remained strong as we continue to have the hires in construction and energy as clients increase limit and add coverages. So we're going to continue to be focused on net new business plus retention and the investment in the specialty hires and giving them, equipping them with analytical tools that help them win new business. That's what drove it in Q3 within the U.S., but as Greg said, globally, and that's what gives us confidence in our mid-single-digit guidance going forward.
Operator, Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Andrew Andersen with Jefferies.
Andrew Andersen, Analyst
Just looking at Health Solutions, 6% organic, really strong and has been for a couple of years now. You listed a few drivers there of the organic input positive market impact kind of last there. But I would think that is one of the bigger drivers. Maybe you could just help us break down between net new business retention and market impact.
Edmund Reese, CFO
Yes. I mean you're right. There was an impact from net market impact as you continue to see health care costs rising, but make no mistake about it. Health is actually one of the largest parts of our portfolio when it comes to new business contribution. Expansion with existing customers. Greg actually called out an example on the call of expansion with existing customers coming in through new business. So in the quarter, you had the strength from our talent analytics business. Our data continues to be seeing high demand. Our core health business had strong growth in EMEA and U.S. as well. The market is attractive right now for these solutions, and the macro factors are having an impact. So you are seeing a positive net market impact. But without a doubt, I have to highlight that it is new business that is driving this primarily expansion with existing customers.
Gregory Case, CEO
And Andrew, I would like to emphasize that as we continue to advance our 3x3 program, we see significant growth potential in the areas where we compete. Health is a major focus for us, representing over 20% of the U.S. economy and growing at an annual rate of 9% to 10%. This creates considerable challenges for companies in supporting the health of their employees and families. Our unique content and capabilities are key in addressing these challenges. For instance, we have recently published groundbreaking analytics on population health and the effects of GLP-1 medications, which indicate the possibility of improving overall population health. This represents an exciting opportunity for us, and we are just starting to explore it. We are enthusiastic about this category, as we are about our work in risk management and retirement. We are making significant progress and will continue to take strategic steps to grow the business.
Andrew Andersen, Analyst
And then regarding reinsurance, I understand that the third quarter is typically lighter, but as we look ahead to 2026, what is your perspective on the reinsurance pricing environment? Additionally, could you provide some insights on changes in demand?
Gregory Case, CEO
Overall, Edmund can share some insights about 2026. When considering the current state of global demand and supply, it's clear there's increasing risk. We're experiencing noticeable pressure on unit prices, particularly in the property sector, and this trend is evident across the industry. Our response is client-focused, aiming to assist them in understanding how to manage risk on a broader scale, which goes beyond just traditional treaty and facultative solutions. Insurance-linked securities come into play here. We previously mentioned the significant tragedy in Jamaica and how we mobilized capital in response. To date, we have successfully issued around 150 cat bonds or parametric instruments for various companies, in addition to insurance firms. This represents a major opportunity to attract more capital in a market that is in need. Regarding hyperscalers, this is an unprecedented chance to explore opportunities that have not been seen before. The projected investment is around $2 trillion, which is just for construction; it doesn't even account for operating or innovation investments that will unfold over time. The expertise and capabilities we possess in reinsurance and risk capital, alongside our Commercial Risk functions, are remarkable, and we anticipate significant opportunities moving forward. Edmund, do you have anything else to add on this topic?
Edmund Reese, CFO
Look, the only thing I'd add is we are seeing pressure on the rate side today. Reinsurance, the net market impact there was flat in the quarter. Clearly, we're seeing pressure in the property side of it. To Greg's point, the demand is high. Clients are buying more sideways coverage to cover perils. We are seeing a focus on our facultative placements, growth in our STG businesses. Again, we'll come back in '26 to your question in Q4 and talk about '26 specifically. But these pressures come today, and we still are in 2025, growing at a mid-single-digit level because of the demand and the solutions that we're providing for our clients here.
Operator, Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.
Jian Huang, Analyst
So my first question comes around the thoughts on capital deployment. Obviously, free cash flow increased significantly year-on-year, but your buyback slowed down. I know that we talked about this a little bit. Just curious how you think about that capital deployment going forward between the acquisitions that NFP is going to make versus how you think about buybacks versus dividends?
Edmund Reese, CFO
I appreciate the question regarding capital. It's an important point for us. You mentioned that buybacks have slowed down, and I want to highlight that we have been focused this year on paying down debt to return to our debt leverage objective. We paid down nearly $2 billion, specifically $1.9 billion last year, and we are on track to do something similar this year while continuing to pay dividends. We are also acquiring in the middle market through NFP, which has generated over $32 million in EBITDA to date, and we have guided to return $1 billion in capital to shareholders through share repurchases. Despite our leverage situation, our free cash flow generation has allowed us to achieve this. When considering capital deployment, we evaluate our options based on a set of criteria that emphasize long-term shareholder value creation. We remain committed to balancing investment for growth with capital returns to shareholders, which entails paying down debt, meeting our leverage objectives, and consistently paying dividends. We are pleased with our deployments towards middle market acquisitions this year, and we expect to be in an even stronger position for that next year, especially with the proceeds from the NFP Wealth sale. These acquisitions will need to meet both our strategic and financial criteria. I shared some information during Investor Day that indicated over 20% IRRs and over 10% revenue growth after one year of ownership of these acquisitions, which gives a sense of how we evaluate financial returns. Additionally, we balance this with the need to return capital to shareholders. Overall, we feel strong about our position and our ability to evaluate options moving forward. Let me turn it over to you, Greg, to provide further insights.
Gregory Case, CEO
Listen, I think you captured it exceptionally well. Maybe one observation I would just add. Edmund just went through a whole series of actions, a whole series of activities. Bob, hopefully, what comes through clearly is our absolute focus on long-term shareholder value creation. We're taking specific actions on the balance sheet side, the capital side, the capital deployment side to make that happen. Acquisitions and divestitures, these are difficult things to do. If you think about just even in the last 18 months, bringing in NFP, which has been phenomenal, but by itself, a monumental effort. The decision to divest of a specific piece of NFP, which is good business, but really not one we're going to invest in and double down on from a capital deployment standpoint. You make the decision to divest against that. That's a hard thing to do, a lot to cover on our finance side with our NFP colleagues, and it went exceptionally well, closed yesterday. The paydown of debt, the buyback, all the different pieces. What I'm trying to highlight here is we have an absolute commitment, and it's not just something we say; you see it in our actions, which is an active management of our balance sheet and our capital position, which happens to be currently the strongest it's ever been against the criteria on long-term shareholder value creation. The team has done a remarkable job actively managing this, just like we do on the operational side.
Jian Huang, Analyst
Really helpful. And also, apologies for a poorly phrased question there. Yes, you're absolutely right. My second question is going back to the data centers a little bit. Obviously, it's a huge momentum for you and it's likely to be very long-tailed. But just curious how you think about the competitive environment now that data center is very much in the front and center of discussions for insurance. Do you see large competitors coming in? Like how should we think about your market share in this expanding pie, so to speak?
Gregory Case, CEO
Thank you for your question. This area is indeed our focus. We have a strong history of innovation, whether it's our work on the Aon Client Treaty, developments related to GLP-1s, or initiatives aimed at bringing 401(k) economics to the middle market from larger companies. All these innovations highlight our capacity to integrate capabilities, manage risks, utilize human capital, and mobilize capital from both within and outside our industry to address challenges. This new opportunity is significant, representing $2 trillion, which only accounts for the build and not the operational or innovative aspects to come. This situation is not strictly about competition. We've conducted an extensive analysis and adopted an engineering-driven strategy. Our partnership with a unique firm will clarify how to navigate these positions and the building processes involved. While the core technology can be left to tech companies, our focus is on ensuring better business continuity and resilience. In the context of data center disruptions, we’re talking about potential losses measured in millions of dollars per minute, which is unprecedented in scale. Our goal is to provide solutions that others may attempt to replicate, though that may be challenging. There is enough opportunity for all participants. The aim is to enhance our industry's relevance in mitigating the volatility associated with constructing and operating these data centers. This represents a substantial opportunity for us to create a meaningful global impact that will continue to grow. The scale of this situation is unlike anything we've encountered before, and we are quite enthusiastic about it.
Operator, Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets.
Michael Zaremski, Analyst
Sticking to the exciting data center conversation, Greg, you provided some valuable insights, suggesting there could be over $10 billion in new premiums for the industry in 2026 alone. Can you clarify whether these premiums are primarily commission-based, and if so, that suggests a lot of growth? Is this more about fee-based revenue? Do you think Aon is securing a disproportionate share of this, or is most of it going to the E&S market? Any additional insights would be appreciated. Clearly, this presents a significant opportunity.
Gregory Case, CEO
Yes, it's still very early in the process. We are at the beginning of the game, and everything is just starting to develop over time. This involves how we build and operate these systems and how they innovate over a few years. We will continue to adapt this approach. For us, it's about accessing capital to manage risk across various markets, whether primary, admitted E&S, or alternative markets. We are tapping into all available capital, which is crucial. Our aim is to deliver value to our clients, and when we do that, compensation follows. We always adopt a value-added approach. We are enthusiastic about the chance to make a difference, and we are already making progress with significant programs underway, but we see the potential for much more. This is not limited to the U.S. but is a global opportunity. We believe there is significant potential, but the challenge lies in convincing capital sources to step in and provide the necessary coverage for hyperscalers and builders. Additionally, with the funds being established, there are further opportunities. This spans the entire ecosystem and presents a unique opportunity.
Michael Zaremski, Analyst
Interesting. And my follow-up is probably for Edmund. On the accelerating Aon United program, can you give us a flavor of how much cash spend remains? And is that kind of evenly spread out over the next five quarters?
Edmund Reese, CFO
Yes. You can find the cash spending details in the 10-Q report. So far, we have spent just over $600 million, and you'll be able to see the full details later this evening. We're on track with our expected spending and will continue to evaluate that as we head into 2026. More importantly, we achieved $110 million in savings last year and are on pace for another $150 million this year. We feel optimistic about our ability to improve scale and capacity, which allows us to invest in our capabilities and our people moving forward. That's our current status regarding spending and savings.
Operator, Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.
Jamminder Bhullar, Analyst
I have a question regarding the organic growth in Commercial Risk. Your results have shown an increase over the year, moving from 5% in the first quarter to 6% in the second quarter and 7% in the third quarter. This change seems to be more than just the increase in hiring. Could you share some key factors that contributed to this improvement in the third quarter that may not have been present in the first quarter? I would like to understand which of these factors are sustainable compared to those that might not be sustainable moving forward. What drove this growth increase?
Gregory Case, CEO
I appreciate the question, Jimmy. I'll start with a high-level overview of our strategic approach and how we've operationalized it. We entered 2024 with a 3x3 Plan that we designed, implemented, and announced last year. The plan focuses on the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 in a straightforward manner, as discussed on Investor Day. What sets us apart? Risk capital and human capital are critical. We are making connections that haven't been made before, leveraging data across various sectors to enhance our analytics through Aon Business Services. This approach has led to the development of analyzers. Early next year, we will kick off the Property Symposium, where we'll present our Property Analyzer to our 1,000 clients, showcasing insights they've never experienced before with superior data. This initiative is aimed at driving revenue and attracting new clients while also enhancing our already strong client retention. The efforts surrounding the 3x3 Plan are focused on achieving these goals. We are currently halfway through this initiative and have high expectations for continued progress. Looking at NFP, we are tapping into a $31 billion market with significant capabilities. The insights from Aon Business Services are especially relevant for the middle market. For instance, CFOs at these companies are interested in improving their cyber risk profiles and managing costs related to 401(k) plans for their employees; these considerations tie into our 3x3 framework. The advancements you're observing reflect our progress on the 3x3 Plan, and we are committed to putting forth maximum effort in this area, which we describe as industrial strength execution. Additionally, we are enhancing our team with priority hires, which Edmund has articulated well. This strategy is vital for building upon the framework I've outlined. While the process is challenging, it is not overly complicated, and that is what we aim to achieve with the 3x3. We are making strides, but there is still much work ahead.
Operator, Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Wolfe Research.
Tracy Benguigui, Analyst
I'm going to stick with the theme of the data centers. Just one quick one. You mentioned a recent client win that replaced nearly $30 billion in coverage for a top global data center developer. Does that represent any one-offs for the quarter?
Gregory Case, CEO
It really doesn't. It's really just part of the ongoing piece. All I really wanted to do, Tracy, there, and Edmund can comment on this as well. I just give you an example that this isn't conceptual. It's happening now. It's also an interesting observation. We have an opportunity as an industry to step up and really make a difference here. Regardless of what we do, these are happening. The investments are being made, and it's quite substantial. I just wanted to provide a very concrete example of where something is sort of ongoing. But also think about the data center that we provided coverage on in that specific example. That was, by the way, part build. They have ongoing data centers to help them understand how to think about the business continuity differently. For us, that is an ongoing effort. Back to why this is so unique. It's not just the build; it's the ongoing operation and then the innovation. That means this is not just a monumental opportunity. This is a sustained monumental opportunity, which is one of the reasons we're so excited about it.
Edmund Reese, CFO
Yes. The growth in this quarter, in particular, is not because of one-off items or nonrecurring business; it really are the durable ongoing sustainable drivers that Greg just talked about, our data through risk capital and human capital, the middle market growth, the analyzers through Aon Business Services, and then on top of that, the cumulative impact of the hiring that we're doing right now. This is not one-off or nonrecurring business; these are the durable drivers of growth that are driving our performance.
Tracy Benguigui, Analyst
Awesome. I'm also going to take a crack at maybe sizing up the market share. You would have better numbers than me, but you announced in July your data center facility has up to $2.5 billion in capacity. Then you talked earlier about $10 billion of new premium volume. Is there any way you could frame it in terms of is that the only vehicle that you're using to place the business? Or maybe you could just talk about all the ways that you could play in that business.
Gregory Case, CEO
Tracy, this will evolve over time. I would say we're just at the beginning. One of the key points that Edmund and I are focusing on is the ongoing work regarding what comes next and an engineering-driven approach. This fundamentally involves how and where you build these facilities and how you maintain them. It's important to consider the analytics related to the potential volatility and risks that need to be addressed. Then, looking at our roles in reinsurance and alternative capital alongside our core insurance responsibilities, we need to figure out how to create the necessary capacity, as what we're discussing has never been seen before. We believe we offer a unique perspective. I'm not claiming it's the best or the perfect one, but it is distinct. Our approach integrates risk capital and human capital, with the talent aspects included as well. All of these elements come together, positioning us uniquely to attract capital for hyperscalers while also helping them understand that beyond technology, there are strategies for operating these data centers that could lower costs and reduce volatility over time. This isn't solely about core technology; it's the surrounding factors that enhance its appeal. For us, this is just the start.
Operator, Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen.
Andrew Kligerman, Analyst
Amazing quarter across a lot of metrics. Focusing on the organic revenue growth, two areas. Edmund, at Investor Day, you talked about 4% to 8% growth, net talent growth. Is that something you think that you could do going forward into '26? And then you've touched a lot on this call about middle market opportunities. Is that coming from NFP people? Is it coming from prior Aon talent? Where is it coming from? I suspect it's your investments in analytics and human capital as you've addressed all along. But I'm kind of curious where in the company it's coming from.
Edmund Reese, CFO
Yes. On the first one, I will sort of direct you back to what you and I have specifically discussed. Our engine in ABS allows us to get scale improvements up to 120 basis points, the expense discipline that we have gives us the capacity to make investments. I think I quantified up to 60 basis points in investments. Those investments right now are focused on revenue-generating hires in priority strategic growth areas, focused on some of our capabilities within ABS. The model itself intends to drive capacity to both invest and have margin expansion. We talked about 70 to 100 basis points as an ongoing model over time here. We feel good about continuing to drive that growth engine and capacity. It's not a one-time thing for us; we think a continued focus on this, making this ongoing in the right areas because that changes over time as well, so focused on making this an ongoing part of our strategic growth model here.
Gregory Case, CEO
Middle market is one aspect of that. It's the $31 billion North American U.S. market that we didn't have access to in the way we do now. NFP, high expectations, as we described at Investor Day, exceeded in so many ways regarding what we've been able to accomplish, not just in the middle market segment but also what we can bring to the middle market with our content and capability and what NFP has brought to Aon in their view and perspectives and their client leadership. For us, it was one aspect of the entire growth algorithm that's being brought to bear here, but an important one and an exciting one. We're pleased to have brought NFP into the Aon family to do this.
Andrew Kligerman, Analyst
Got it. As we approach the end of the year, it seems like with that divestiture of the NFP Wealth business, you've kind of met your leverage objectives. As you do look at M&A, and you talked about $32 million of EBITDA for NFP deals in the quarter, are there potentially big ones out there that you could do? Is that something you're thinking about? Do you feel like 1.5 years in, you're ready to do it now that NFP is assimilated enough that you could do a bigger middle market type deal?
Gregory Case, CEO
So Andrew, I think Edmund might have answered this earlier in the call. I'll answer it again. You're right; we are absolutely focused on long-term shareholder value creation, making the decisions to drive that. The capital allocation piece is active management of our balance sheet and our capital position, which happens to be currently the strongest it's ever been against the criteria on long-term shareholder value creation. We anticipate we're going to do our best to ensure we're making the right calls on behalf of long-term value creation.
Operator, Operator
I would now like to turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks.
Gregory Case, CEO
I just want to say thanks again for joining us, and we look forward to an opportunity to talk with you in the next quarter. Take care.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.