Earnings Call Transcript - AON Q2 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon plc's Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call. I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded. If anyone has an objection, you may disconnect your line at this time. It is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may include forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could result in actual outcomes differing significantly from historical results or those anticipated. For details on these risk factors, please refer to our earnings release for this quarter and our most recent quarterly or annual SEC filings, all of which can be found on our website. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, CEO of Aon plc. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Thank you, Donna. Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter earnings call. I'm joined today by Edmund Reese, our CFO. And as always, we posted a detailed financial presentation on our website, which Edmund will reference in his remarks. To begin, we want to take a moment to reflect on the momentum coming out of our Investor Day, where we detailed why and how our client-centric Aon United strategy drives sustainable top line growth and exceptional free cash flow per share growth. Aon United, operationalized and accelerated by the 3x3 Plan, is driving meaningful performance demonstrated in our Q2 results, with continued momentum as we enter the second half of 2025, and look ahead to 2026. Let's start with some Q2 highlights. We delivered a strong quarter, in line with our expectations, including 6% organic revenue growth, 19% adjusted EPS growth, and 59% free cash flow growth. For clients, facing an increasingly complex operating environment, our work to deliver for them has never been more essential, and we remain confident in our ability to meet their evolving needs, both now and over the long term. At Investor Day, we discussed how market realities shaping the current operating landscape are complex and constantly evolving. Clients of all sizes, industries and geographies are challenged with how to address and respond to the interconnected megatrends of trade, technology, weather and workforce. And the pressure is only growing. In the weeks following Investor Day alone, we've seen several major developments that demonstrate the impact and connectivity of these megatrends. The enactment of U.S. tax legislation and continued shifts in the global tariff landscape. Severe flooding in convective storms across the U.S., alongside record-breaking heat waves in both the U.S. and Europe. Events that have driven historic first half catastrophe losses, disrupted supply chains, displaced workforces and caused widespread property damage. And significant workforce changes announced by some of the world's largest technology companies, citing the accelerating impact of AI on roles and responsibilities. These events, and many others, reinforce the importance of our Aon United strategy as we help clients make better decisions, and achieve better outcomes, in what is arguably the most complex operating environment they've ever faced. Our strategy is working. As we detailed at Investor Day, the industrial strength foundation powering Aon United and driving sustainable top line growth and margin expansion is Aon Business Services. With ABS fully operationalized, we're winning more share in core markets, capturing demand in existing markets, and creating new demand in new categories. Let me highlight a few specific examples from the second quarter. We are winning more in the core by deepening relationships with existing clients. One of the world's largest investment firms who previously engaged us solely on Risk Capital topics recently awarded us their U.S. and Global benefits advisory business. This win was driven by two key factors. First, our integrated Risk Capital and Human Capital structure is unique in our industry and allows clients to employ a holistic risk strategy across their full business. Leveraging our scale and analytics, this leading global company could see their business differently across their own internal silos. And second, our differentiated Human Capital analytics provide globally comparable insights that help them make better data-driven decisions. We are also capturing demand in existing markets by developing new capabilities. In the second quarter, we launched Aon Broker Copilot, and placed our first client program, a game changer for our brokers, advisers and clients. This capability leverages Aon's global scale, proprietary data and embedded AI to provide an enhanced view into how the global insurance market is pricing risk, arming our team with insight into real-time market behavior. Broker Copilot augments predictive broking, enabling Aon Brokers to match capital to risk in an unparalleled manner. And another example of how ABS assets support our colleagues to capture new demand and serve clients with superior solutions. And finally, we're creating new demand in new ways by innovating on behalf of clients in categories like cyber, an expected area to drive outsized growth for Aon as sourcing sufficient and tailored cyber insurance remains a pressing concern for clients. In Q2, we developed and placed a first-of-its-kind cyber reinsurance offering. Aon surge stop-loss, which enables enhanced protection against cumulative cyber losses. Unlike traditional reinsurance products that require a specific event-driven event to trigger coverage, Aon surge stop-loss triggers based on aggregate loss thresholds, resulting in broader, more flexible protection, an important evolution in the cyber reinsurance market, given the ever-increasing risk of cyber attacks. We also continue to invest in client-facing talent across high-growth areas, and our revenue-generating hires are up 6% through June 30. Colleagues come to Aon because they recognize the competitive advantage of Aon's differentiated platform, and how it enables them to deliver superior client outcomes. Finally, the $31 billion North American middle market remains a significant growth opportunity. Our integration of NFP continues to progress very well, and we're making meaningful progress toward our $80 million net revenue synergy target for 2025, as our combined team continues to unlock value by leveraging complementary capabilities and deep client relationships. It's clear our Aon United strategy, powered by ABS continues to drive innovation, deliver actionable insights and match client risk with new sources of capital. Our strong first half performance and continued progress against the commitments of the 3x3 Plan reinforce that we have the right strategy and plan in place to deliver long-term value. And as a result, we reaffirm our 2025 full year guidance, and our commitment to deliver double-digit free cash flow growth over the '23 to '26, 3x3 Plan period. To conclude, I will highlight three points. First, as the global environment continues to evolve, Aon's capability and integrated solutions are mission-critical for clients, to mitigate complexity, protect assets and grow their businesses. Second, our team is confident in our ability to capitalize on the compelling opportunities ahead and deliver long-term shareholder value. And the results today are just another proof point of the strength of our strategy. And third, we have momentum across our businesses. We are attracting great talent. We are capturing the growing middle market opportunity, and we are winning more with both new and existing clients. Finally, to our over 60,000 colleagues around the world, thank you. Thank you for your commitment to our clients, each other, and our Aon United strategy. Your dedication is the driving force of our firm. Now I'll turn the call over to Edmund for his thoughts on our financial performance and long-term opportunity to drive shareholder value creation. Edmund, over to you.

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to be here to discuss our second quarter results, which reflect both execution and the growing momentum of our 3x3 Plan. But before we get into the details of our second quarter results, I want to take a moment to elevate what matters most. There are three key proof points that best capture the momentum behind our strategy and the strength of our performance. These highlights provide the right context for the details that follow and underscore how our execution on the 3x3 Plan is translating into tangible results. First, we see clear evidence that our financial model is delivering as designed. Our investments in revenue-generating hires equipped with the analytical tools and client experience enhancements enabled by Aon Business Services, or ABS, are translating into sustainable mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth. Organic revenue growth was 6% for the quarter and we are winning new business, expanding our relationships with existing clients and doing so with greater client engagement. Second, these Q2 results are not just about top line performance. They reflect our ability to invest in growth and expand margins, not through cost cutting, but through operating leverage. The scale improvements powered by ABS, along with our restructuring program savings, created capacity to fund growth investments while still expanding margins by 80 basis points over last year, in line with our long-term model. Third, the top line strength, coupled with the operating leverage drove 19% adjusted EPS growth year-over-year, and we converted those earnings into 59% free cash flow growth in the quarter, a clear demonstration of the strength of our earnings power and capital position. This performance reinforces our conviction in delivering double-digit free cash flow growth for the full year, and it gives us the flexibility to execute across all dimensions of our capital allocation strategy. We remain on track to meet our leverage objective, continue our disciplined middle market M&A strategy, and return $1 billion in capital to shareholders via share repurchases this year. Taken together, our first half performance, 5% organic revenue growth and 8% adjusted EPS growth, reflects the strength and resilience of our business and financial model and the discipline of our execution. In the macro environment that remains uncertain, we are delivering results by deepening client relationships and creating more value for clients through data insights and innovative capital solutions. We are driving growth through our investments in data capabilities, expanding margins through ABS, and converting earnings into strong free cash flow. This gives us confidence in achieving our full year 2025 guidance. So now turning to the second quarter results and the financial summary on Slide 5. You see that we delivered 6% organic revenue growth in the second quarter, and total revenue increased 11% to $4.2 billion. Adjusted operating margin was 28.2%, up 80 basis points for the quarter, in line with our expectations. And this includes the impact from NFP, as we lap the anniversary of the acquisition at the end of April, resulting in a more normalized margin profile going forward. Adjusted EPS was $3.49. And finally, free cash flow increased to $732 million, reflecting strong adjusted operating income growth and continued improvement in days sales outstanding. Let's get into the details of these results, starting with organic revenue growth on Slide 6. Organic revenue growth in Q2 '25 was in line with our mid-single-digit or greater guidance range. Growth was broad-based with 3 of our 4 solution lines, Commercial Risk, Reinsurance and Health, each delivering 6% organic revenue growth, reflecting strong new business performance and high retention. In Commercial Risk, the 6% organic revenue growth in Q2 reflected strong performance in our core P&C business, with meaningful contributions from both North America and EMEA, as well as strength in M&A services relative to prior year, and double-digit growth in construction. Notably, construction and renewable energy projects remain key areas of focus for us with activity levels continuing to be robust. In Reinsurance, organic revenue growth was 6%, driven by double-digit growth in our insurance-linked securities business, where we continue to lead the market in cat bond placements, now totaling $50 billion outstanding. We saw double-digit growth in facultative placements in EMEA and Asia Pacific, which helped offset softer April 1 property renewals where rates declined 5% to 20%. Looking ahead, we continue to expect full year organic revenue growth in line with our mid-single-digit or greater objective. Supported by higher limits at July 1 renewals, continued momentum in international facultative placements and strong demand for analytics from our strategy and technology group. Health Solutions also delivered 6% growth in the quarter and benefited from continued strength in our core health and benefits business, especially across international markets. Growth was fueled by net new business and market dynamics that continue to drive rising health care costs. We also saw a strong contribution from NFP, most notably in executive benefits and pharmacy solutions, where demand remains elevated. And finally, Wealth generated 3% organic revenue growth on top of 9% growth in the prior year period. The performance this quarter was driven by regulatory work across the U.K. and EMEA. We also saw a meaningful contribution from NFP asset inflows and market performance. So let me take a moment now to walk through the components of our Q2 organic revenue growth on Slide 7. As I shared at Investor Day, Aon has a consistent track record of generating new business, and that continued in Q2. In the quarter, new business powered organic revenue growth and contributed 11 points, with an equal contribution from both new clients and expansion with existing clients. Our investments in revenue-generating talent, in high-growth areas like construction and energy are delivering measurable impact. Revenue-generating headcount is up 6% through the first half, and these colleagues are equipped with advanced data analytics and capabilities from ABS, enabling them to win more business. We continue to expect these investments to support sustainable organic revenue growth, with the 2024 cohort projected to contribute 30 to 35 basis points to full year organic revenue growth. Q2 '25 retention improved by 1 point year-over-year, driven by continued gains in Commercial Risk, as we expand enterprise client leader coverage and deploy our Risk Capital Analyzer. Net new business contributed 5 points to organic revenue growth in the quarter. Net market impact, which captures the impact of rate and exposure, contributed approximately 1 point to organic revenue growth, consistent with our 0 to 2-point estimated range. Reinsurance was down from rate declines and higher retentions, and rate pressure in Commercial Risk was offset with limit and coverage increases across our book. Health and Wealth both benefited from positive net market impact with rising health care costs and favorable asset performance supporting growth. And one final point on revenue. Second quarter fiduciary investment income was $66 million in the quarter, down 12% versus the prior year, while average balances increased lower interest rates more than offset that benefit. On Slide 8, adjusted operating income was up 14% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, and adjusted operating margin was up 80 basis points to 28.2%. This margin expansion reflects the impact of the four components that we highlighted when we provided full year guidance. NFP, fiduciary investment income, restructuring and operating leverage, all of which are in line with our expectations. While we absorbed a 1-month margin headwind from NFP given the April 2024 closing, our margin continued to benefit from the scale improvement driven by ABS and the savings from our restructuring program. Specifically, restructuring savings totaled $35 million in the quarter, contributing approximately 83 basis points to adjusted operating margin. We remain on track to deliver $150 million in restructuring savings for the full year, and are progressing well toward our goal of $350 million in run rate savings by 2026. Given our strong progress in the first half of the year, we remain confident in our ability to drive full year adjusted operating margin expansion of 80 to 90 basis points, consistent with our long-term model. Moving to interest, other income and taxes on Slide 9. As we indicated last quarter, interest income was negligible in the second quarter, and $31 million lower than last year when we earned interest on funds held ahead of the NFP acquisition. Interest expense of $212 million was lower by $13 million versus the prior year, primarily due to lower average debt balances. We expect interest expense to be approximately $210 million in Q3 '25. Other expense rose by $17 million year-over-year to $32 million, primarily due to the remeasurement of balance sheet items in nonfunctional currencies and higher noncash pension expense. We estimate Q3 '25 other expense to range between $25 million and $32 million. And finally, the Q2 tax rate was 16.5%, reflecting a favorable impact related to discrete items. While we expect variability in the quarterly rate, our year-to-date rate of 19.3% is in line with our expectations, and our full year tax outlook remains unchanged at 19.5% to 20.5%. Turning now to free cash flow on Slide 10. We generated $732 million in free cash flow in the second quarter, up 59% year-over-year. On a year-to-date basis, free cash flow is up 13%, and this growth reflects strong adjusted operating income, including contributions from NFP, and continued improvements in days sales outstanding. This free cash flow performance gives us the flexibility to execute across all dimensions of our capital allocation strategy, and we continue to expect double-digit free cash flow growth in 2025. Turning to capital allocation. On the right side of the page, we remain focused on executing our disciplined and balanced capital allocation. We continue to make progress on deleveraging, lowering our leverage ratio to 3.4x in the second quarter. We remain on track to achieve our target range of 2.8x to 3.0x by the fourth quarter of 2025, consistent with the objective we set when we announced the NFP acquisition. We also remain active in M&A, continuing our targeted tuck-in acquisitions across priority areas, including middle market deals through NFP. Through June, NFP has closed 8 acquisitions representing $20 million of EBITDA, with 80% of the EBITDA connected to P&C deals. Finally, we returned $411 million in capital to shareholders this quarter, due to a dividend, and $250 million in share repurchases, keeping us on track for $1 billion in capital return through share repurchases for the full year. Each of these actions underpinned by strong free cash flow generation reflects our disciplined capital allocation model in action. Reducing leverage, investing in high-return growth, and returning capital to shareholders. So I'll conclude my prepared remarks on Slide 11 with some thoughts on our financial objectives and 2025 guidance. Our second quarter results, and our performance through the first half of 2025, reflect the strength of our financial model and our execution on our 3x3 Plan. We are delivering sustainable organic revenue growth by investing in the capabilities that fuel growth. Client-facing talent, differentiated analytics, and seamless client experience through ABS. Our organic revenue growth, combined with the initiatives we are executing across ABS to standardize operations and integrate platforms is creating capacity to fund our growth investments while strengthening the foundation for ongoing margin expansion. objectives. As a result, we are reaffirming our full year guidance, including mid-single-digit or greater organic revenue growth, 80 to 90 basis points of margin expansion, including $260 million in cumulative annual savings from our Aon United restructuring initiative, strong earnings growth, and double-digit free cash flow growth in 2025, and a double-digit 3-year CAGR for 2023 to 2026. We are executing with focus. We have momentum, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver long-term value for our shareholders. So with that, let's jump into your questions. Donna, back to you.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar, Analyst

I have a question for Greg about the growth contribution from capital markets activities and new hires. Edmund mentioned at Investor Day that the contribution from new hires should increase as we progress through this year. Can you confirm if that remains unchanged? Additionally, are you seeing or expecting a greater impact from capital markets in the third and fourth quarters compared to the first half, especially with the rise in M&A and IPO activity across various industries?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

First of all, Jimmy, I appreciate the questions. We'll start with M&A services and then maybe go to talent when you're asking your second question. Regarding M&A services, you know this story well from our side. We love this space and we are extremely well positioned to succeed. We've been investing in this capability because we understand its importance from a client perspective, and we've continued to invest even when it wasn't performing well. As we've mentioned before, we’re refraining from making projections and will focus on past performance. You will see the effects of this, and we have made progress this quarter. I would describe it as improvement, but not a full recovery. The pipelines are picking up, as investment banks have indicated. However, there is still a significant amount of capital sitting on the sidelines, and we have made strides. As Edmund mentioned, it was a positive factor this quarter, but the overall impact on our growth and performance was quite broad-based. So, overall, we have positive prospects, and I would classify it as progress. Edmund, do you have anything else to add before we move on to talent?

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

Yes, regarding mergers and acquisitions, I want to reiterate your point, Greg. We saw strengthening in the first quarter, and in the second quarter, there was modest growth from a low starting point. Our outlook for the second half indicates modest growth for M&A, and we expect to maintain our mid-single-digit growth levels. If the growth exceeds expectations, that will benefit us. I want to emphasize Greg's point about broad-based growth. M&A is part of our Commercial Risk segment, which showed 6% growth for the quarter, aligning with our expectations, driven by strength in our core property and casualty business in North America and double-digit growth in construction. That reflects our priority hires. Your next question about contributions is also aligned with our expectations. While M&A contributed positively, it was not the main driver. Additionally, growth in construction and international markets, especially in EMEA and Latin America, was based on new business and our hiring in those regions. Overall, the growth came from various solution lines, stemming from new business and new hires. Regarding your second question, you're correct. As I mentioned, after six months, we achieved a 6% increase in revenue-generating hires, which fits within the 4% to 8% range we communicated during Investor Day. This represents strong growth in our priority areas, including energy and significant growth in construction, which we believe are exceeding GDP growth. We are focusing our contributions from new business to support our organic revenue growth, and there's a notable component of that as new hires start to make their contributions. We remain confident in our projections made during Investor Day, anticipating a contribution of 30 to 35 basis points from the 2024 cohort of new hires. Lastly, we will continue to focus on our growth strategy, committed to investing in talent, resources, and capabilities through ABS.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar, Analyst

And maybe just a question on your preferred uses of free cash flow. You mentioned deleveraging as you had outlined at the end with the NFP deal. But just maybe comment on your interest in large M&A. It seems like the antitrust environment is better than it was before, and some of your peers have done larger deals since you did the NFP acquisition. But just your interest in large-scale M&A as a use of capital?

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

Yes. I want to highlight our strong position before handing it over to Greg to discuss the broader environment. Regarding free cash flow growth, we experienced 59% in the quarter and 13% year-to-date, which comes from our operating income, the NFP deal, and the reduction of integration and transaction costs as we noted during Investor Day. Our confidence in achieving double-digit free cash flow remains very high, indicating our strength and flexibility. One of our main priorities is to reduce our leverage ratio, and we are on track to achieve that. While we are paying dividends, we will continue to assess assets that align with our strategic and financial goals, ensuring our M&A decisions enhance returns. I presented a slide during Investor Day showing that we achieve 12% revenue growth after one year of ownership, with over 20% IRR and industry-leading ROIC. This illustrates our solid position with free cash flow and flexibility, as we plan to invest for growth using the right criteria. Now, Greg, could you discuss the environment?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Yes. And listen, you captured it very well, Edmund. Jimmy, you get the point here. This is an underlying foundation that's driven our capital allocation decisions for a long time, just fully reinforced by Edmund. This is operating on strength with flexibility, but go back in time. Return on invested capital, cash-on-cash return, true evaluation across the spectrum. And also remember, we're buying and selling, right? We are managing capital in a way in which we are absolutely focused on it. And we'll take steps to focus the portfolio if it's going to be helpful, and add to the portfolio in any way, it's going to support us as well, from dividend to buyback to acquisition in every way, shape or form. So I appreciate the question, but we're excited about the potential here.

Elyse Beth Greenspan, Analyst

My first question is also on the M&A transactional book. I was just wondering, is it overweight any geography, or industry vertical? Or is it pretty diversified? And then directionally, is the margin better or worse than the core P&C margin within the Commercial Risk segment?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Appreciate the question, Elyse. Listen, we're happy to talk about M&A services all day long. So I just love the questions. For us, remember, we have truly invested in world-class capability and content here, and we continue to do it when it wasn't as robust. The demand wasn't as robust for all the reasons that we all know. We described at the time that we have expanded our capability. So we expanded it both geographically, as well as beyond just sort of the classic PE focus. So it really is to the corporate world, too. If you think about sort of the uses of M&A services, they've predominantly been directed towards the PE world, but equally compelling in the context of the overall corporate world. So from our standpoint, what we've got is broad-based capability and what we believe will be with time, very broad-based demand across the world, and now even broader in terms of sort of how it's going to be applied. So again, we're excited about the potential. We've always has been. Nothing's changed there. But as Edmund and I both tried to describe, better not back, right? There's a long way to go here with a lot of dry powder, and we're going to continue to see it evolve over time. On the margin question, Edmund, can you maybe comment on that?

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

Yes. First, regarding your first question, the key term is broad-based. The growth we're experiencing is a positive factor, albeit modest, and we've observed this growth in all our regions. EMEA was strong, Asia Pacific was strong, and the U.S. performed well in the M&A space as well. Concerning your question about margins in the components of Commercial Risk compared to other areas, it's important to note that Commercial Risk has slightly higher margins, but overall, the margins are consistent. I don't focus heavily on quarterly margins since we operate on an annual basis. The main point of focus should be the growth in margins for both the Commercial Risk and Human Capital segments, which we are seeing as a result of operational leverage and improvements in scale through ABS. This progress is evident across all our solutions.

Elyse Beth Greenspan, Analyst

And then my second question. I was hoping you could spend a little bit more time on what drove the pretty strong free cash flow growth in the quarter? And then I know the full year guide is for $300 million from NFP free cash flow. Where do we sit through the first half of the year?

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

Yes. You’re already touching on the key reasons. There are four main areas to consider regarding our free cash flow growth and our path to double digits. The first is the growth in operating income, particularly from NFP, which contributed significantly this quarter. We are optimistic about the $300 million contribution expected from NFP in 2025. The second area is our ongoing improvements in working capital, especially in days sales outstanding, which we are monitoring by region through our procurement teams. We continue to see positive results from these efforts. The third focus is on the Aon United restructuring program, which is expected to impact free cash flow as we progress through 2026, consistent with our plans. Additionally, we benefited this quarter from reduced transaction and integration costs related to NFP, as I mentioned during Investor Day. The combination of operating income growth, working capital enhancements, and lower costs from NFP are driving our 13% year-to-date performance, and we believe that maintaining these strengths will position us for double-digit growth in 2025.

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Elyse, I want to emphasize an important point you mentioned regarding free cash flow and its growth. Edmund has clearly outlined what has occurred this year and year-to-date. Let's step back and remember that our focus is on enhancing revenue and translating that revenue into free cash flow. We analyze this from every possible angle. Historically, we have achieved double-digit growth in free cash flow over a significant period. With the introduction of the 3x3 Plan and Aon Business Services, we are leveraging revenue and capabilities to drive further revenue growth, and you can see that potential. Additionally, this plan enhances our operational efficiency. We achieved double-digit growth without Aon Business Services, and now as it fully integrates, we are reinforcing our capacity to deliver results, which is becoming evident. We want you to maintain your focus on free cash flow, just as we are. We believe the opportunity ahead is substantial, which is why we are reaffirming our guidance on this. It's important to understand that this isn't just about results for 2025; it encompasses 2025, 2026, and well beyond the 3x3 Plan period.

Andrew Scott Kligerman, Analyst

So back when you closed on the NFP deal about a year plus ago, the talk was of the expectation of generating about $175 million of OpEx synergies, coupled with about $60 million in cost synergies. And I think, Edmund, you mentioned that this year, you're on track for $80 million in revenue synergies. So looking out to 2026, how are you progressing there? What can we expect along these numbers? Any specific numbers you could provide around these metrics as we look to the incremental upside in 2026?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Andrew, thank you for the question. I want to provide some context regarding NFP and its progress, which will help clarify the specifics of how they have continued to strengthen and evolve, a topic Edmund will address shortly. Reflecting on our Investor Day discussions, we had high expectations when NFP joined Aon, and those expectations have been surpassed. It has been wonderful to collaborate with this team; we support them, and they support Aon, creating a great synergy. You've likely seen the positive impact on our revenue and organic revenue, as well as in our operating results this quarter and throughout the year. This is precisely what we aimed for—a robust platform. Additionally, this platform also allows us to undertake the programmatic M&A that Edmund mentioned. The concept of being independent yet connected has significantly enhanced our ability to add capabilities to NFP on both the producer and M&A fronts, making us more appealing to others interested in becoming part of Aon. I wanted to set this context for your understanding of NFP and the progress we've achieved. And indeed, the outcomes reflect this progress. Now, I’ll turn it over to Edmund for further comments.

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

Yes, Andrew. In response to your question, the key point that both Greg and I have emphasized is the importance of producer retention. That's essential because without it, revenue synergies will not materialize. The situation is better than it was before the acquisition, and we expect to maintain strong producer retention in 2025, similar to 2024. This is driven by the independent and connected strategy that Greg mentioned. Our first step is to minimize any revenue loss. As you pointed out, we anticipate $80 million in 2025 and $175 million in synergies by 2026. So far, we have secured several million in new business from joint activities across business units. As we look at our progress and what will help us achieve the $80 million and $175 million targets, I’d like to highlight a couple of areas. One is shifting from third-party wholesale to our Aon expertise. This aligns with our strategy of opening the Aon store to the NFP population. Another area is utilizing our Aon Global Broking center for international and specialized placements, which has been a growth area for NFP and has contributed to our synergies. Additionally, we have middle-market panels established in sectors like marine, terrorism, and builders risk, which are particularly relevant now. These focus areas are crucial for us to meet our commitments of $80 million in 2025 and $175 million in 2026, and we remain confident in achieving these goals.

Andrew Scott Kligerman, Analyst

Got it. And then just second question is around Reinsurance Solutions. You talked about double-digit increases in ILS and facultative placements. How should we think about the dynamic with treaty? Is that kind of taking from treaty? Or do you see kind of an uplift in both? Like how should we think about that dynamic between the two product areas, ILS and treaty?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Andrew, that's a great question. I encourage you to take a step back and consider that this approach is more about our clients than our products. We're focused on how we can assist clients in both protecting their assets and looking at their balance sheets while also helping them grow and develop new capabilities. Whether we are discussing treaty, facultative, or ILS, all these aspects come into play as we strive to support our clients effectively. In many ways, these elements complement rather than compete with each other. From a reinsurance perspective, the narrative has been quite positive. We have an impressive global capability that keeps getting stronger. With our 3x3 Plan and the investments we're making in analytics, we're seeing tremendous potential. For instance, the surge stop-loss opportunity is a new addition that enhances our reinsurance offerings. Additionally, this capability within risk capital acts as a significant amplifier. Reinsurance is already showing a strong upward trend, driven by growing demand and new opportunities. We're now focused on integrating this capability into the commercial risk decision-making process, which is highly complementary. When we consider the largest global companies with trillion-dollar balance sheets, the question they face is how to better understand volatility. The solution isn't a single product but rather the comprehensive resources of global Aon. Take, for example, our work with ILS for commercial companies stemming from reinsurance. In 2021, we had virtually no deals, and in 2020, we had none at all. Yet in 2024, we completed 109 deals, and so far in 2025, we’re nearing 100. This showcases the remarkable opportunities available to us. We believe this is a key area of new demand as it evolves, and we're excited about the potential connections between reinsurance and commercial risk. The same positive narrative applies to the commercial risk side as well.

Robert Cox, Analyst

Just a question first on talent. The revenue-generating headcount seems like it's up 6% year-to-date, and this push has been successful. I'm curious, has this changed your mind at all about the sort of run rate future investments in talent? And is this 4% to 8% increase annually sort of the right level to think about going forward?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

I want to start with an overview, and then Edmund can provide more details. The issue of talent is significant and links back to our discussion on Investor Day about enhancing our content and capabilities. It's essential to remember that our firm's mission is client-focused, aiming to help clients make better decisions and achieve superior outcomes. We are adding talent not for financial leverage or merely reorganizing our workforce, as that's common in our industry. Instead, we are doing this to ensure better outcomes in our priority areas such as construction, energy, and health. Our commitment involves enhancing talent and capabilities while ensuring they can excel within Aon. If new hires come without the necessary skills and improvements in services, they don't contribute to our goals. We focus on bringing in talent that fits our needs, and this is supported by our Aon Business Services. Furthermore, as Edmund highlighted on Investor Day, this is about continuous improvement—not just in how we support our clients but also in our ongoing investments. The system we are building enhances top-line growth and improves operational performance while continuously reinvesting in the business. We will assess this consistently, make informed decisions about capital allocation, and continue to see opportunities to bring in talent. This appeal draws individuals who are eager to make a significant impact and engage with clients in new ways. That's a key part of our value proposition, and that commitment sustains our growth. Now, I’ll hand it over to Edmund to update us on where we stand this year and our expectations for the future.

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

I'll start by highlighting your point, Greg. This is about fulfilling client needs. If you achieve that, then we can focus on sustainable organic revenue growth. Meeting client needs drives this kind of growth, which we accomplish by making the necessary hires. We have the ability to make these hires mainly due to Aon Business Services and the improvements in scale that we gain from it. I would like to refer back to the slide from Investor Day regarding margin expansion and investment in growth. We drive margin expansion through Aon Business Services and benefit from expense discipline while investing 40 to 60 basis points in revenue-generating hires and other capabilities. Our goal is to meet our short-term objectives, achieve double-digit free cash flow growth this year, and invest for ongoing sustainable top-line growth. If we can gain more from scale improvements, we'll invest more. If we exceed expectations this year, we'll increase our investments. We're focused on finding investments in the right areas that foster growth. It's not about the quantity; we emphasize the importance of quality talent in growth sectors. Our model is to create capacity for both growth and margin expansion, enabling us to meet our immediate financial objectives while ensuring sustainable long-term growth. If we can identify more opportunities for investment, we'll pursue those with this vision in mind.

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Well, listen, Rob, again back to kind of what we talked about sort of in the Investor Day context. Look, these four megatrends we've talked about, trade, technology, weather and workforce, they just continue to be reinforced. As we said at the Investor Day, we were talking about trade a year before the Liberation Day, and now it's been intensified massively. And we're seeing that. I would observe, though, listen, the 3x3 Plan and the investments we're making, again, not something we've created. It's something we listened to clients and we responded to. We just responded to at an industrial strength level. And it is true. There is more volatility. We've been talking about that for a decade. More risk. And there's a need for real capability to respond to that. But if you think about it, there's no denying the complexity, no denying the volatility. Unmanaged by the way, what happens? Complexity creates uncertainty and ambiguity, and it slows everything down, action stops, investment stops. So that's what everybody is worried about. Look, we think about it as complexity. Again, no denying it. But if you could help a client understand options, real options, and then you've got solutions behind the options, they see advantage and they see speed. And be clear, our clients want to take action. But if the pandemic taught us nothing else, it was inaction is not a great outcome. Hope is not a strategy. They came to realize that. They're looking for actions. And I'm just trying to think. One example I'll share with you because it resonated very strongly for me. I've been having conversations, ongoing conversations we have across the firm with the CEO of one of the largest builders in the world. And we've been talking about their portfolio of major infrastructure projects, and these are mega around the world, and they're open for bid. And they're massive, as I said. But they're also complex, and the geography is complex, and the geopolitics are complex. And three months ago, they're talking about a pullback. I mean literally, maybe a no bid on a number of them, and they're just taking a hugely reserved position. We spent time over the last three months on a set of analytics that help them understand ways to reduce aspects of volatility. I mean we're not going to change the operating underlying aspects, but all the things that surround those projects. And now they've got a brand-new prioritization around what they're going to go after, real offense. And in their mind, they've got great conviction around the subset of these, they think is a greater opportunity. And so what I'm trying to highlight for you is all that you read, all that's out there is real, but understand clients want to take action and they want the content to be able to take action with conviction, and that's us. I mean this is the analyzers. This is the capability that we bring to the table. This is the matching of capital with risk and matching beyond just insurance capital, but really pension capital and sovereign fund capital and PE capital. And so it really is in that context for us an opportunity to help clients take a step ahead with conviction, and that's a real opportunity, recognizing the complexity that's out there. So hopefully, that wasn't too much, but it gives you a sense on sort of literally what's happening in the market day-to-day.

David Kenneth Motemaden, Analyst

Edmund, I was wondering if you could just size the tailwind to organic growth from the M&A services for both the total company and then specifically within Commercial Risk? And then maybe help us think about it. I understand it's not back yet, but if it were back, how much of a contribution could it have?

Edmund J. Reese, CFO

Yes, David, thanks for the question. I mean there certainly is a ton of emphasis on M&A right now. I'd prefer to stay focused on what the drivers are today here. And M&A is providing a tailwind for you. I've said before, growing off of the base that we have for M&A right now we have objectives of mid-single-digit or greater. You would need M&A to be multiples of that. You would need it to be 4, 5x that before it becomes a significant contribution to the overall organic growth rate that we have. The items that are driving it right now really is the core P&C business, the investment hires that we're making, the double-digit growth in construction. Those investment hires driving new business right now. And so we're going to continue to be focused on new business and retention. The other big thing in Commercial Risk. We talked about retention being up 1 point year-over-year. And this is an opportunity to even call it our North American retention and Commercial Risk, which was up substantially, given what we're doing with our priority accounts, with our premier accounts, what we're doing in terms of expanding coverage. So M&A, I get the focus on that. Right now, it's a bit of a tailwind. I think our outlook is for it to be modest in the second half of the year. If it comes in higher, then that gives us more confidence in being at the mid-single-digit or greater levels in our balance. We're not dependent on that. We are more focused on recurring organic revenue growth. We'll maintain our fair share, as Greg said earlier, of M&A services, particularly with PE, and we're focusing on expanding with corporates, but our focus is on recurring revenue growth, and those are the drivers.

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

And David, we're not trying to hedge here at all, but understand M&A services is intertwined. It connects with all of our aspects of our business. So it isn't just a transaction liability placement. It really is around the runoff discussion, or it's around a whole series of other things related to the P&L. So it's very interconnected. And I think Edmund characterized it perfectly. And you'll see it play out as it plays out, and it looks like it may be a little more positive. But again, very connected to what we do across the firm. That's why we're not going to really break it out as an individual piece, because it's really very supported by colleagues around the firm.

Andrew Scott Kligerman, Analyst

I understand. Regarding the 6% increase in revenue-generating roles in the first half of the year, which is already at the midpoint of your annual goal, could you discuss the talent pipeline? Do you believe there is potential to exceed the 8% growth target for revenue-generating roles set for this year?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Edmund described our efforts very well. We are focused on building capabilities to better serve our clients, especially in key areas, and we have a strategy for approaching these opportunities with confidence and enthusiasm to exceed our previous achievements. When we recognize these prospects, we will seize them. This isn’t about a specific target; it’s about the broader picture Edmund outlined. We expect to maintain our momentum. The client experience is crucial, as discussed on Investor Day, particularly our next-generation client experience. As clients grasp what this means on a personal level, it becomes more engaging. For instance, helping clients understand that they don't need to deal with certificate proof of insurance because we've digitized that process and utilized AI for real-time results empowers them. They can now discuss this with their own clients, which was not possible before. These capabilities are significant, and producers see their value. They want to be a part of Aon, and we encourage that desire and will support it as best as we can. We will respond to opportunities as they arise rather than pushing just for the sake of it.

Meyer Shields, Analyst

I was hoping to get an update on how sensitive clients of different sizes are to elevated social inflation, or legal risk in the U.S? I know on the insurance side, obviously, it's a major concern, but I'm wondering whether it's penetrating the broader consciousness?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Meyer, thanks for the question. Listen, again, client orientation. Yes, it penetrates everywhere. Everyone reads and clients understand that in many respects, this is focused ultimately on them in terms of sort of what it really means, absolutely focused on them. And they're concerned about it. Therefore, we're concerned about it. You saw us in October of last year, the first to basically say we're not going to support this because it really doesn't support our clients, period. We just said no. Especially focused on the North American and the U.S. theater. So yes, it's an area of concern, and we're taking action to explicitly not support it. We made that public. Others have now joined the fray, which is terrific, and we believe it's the right answer. But yes, it's absolutely known outcome across the board, some more acute than others depending on the industry you're in and the size. But make no mistake, it's a big deal.

Meyer Shields, Analyst

Okay. Fantastic. That's very helpful. And I want to go back to the talent question, just one more time because we've gone through, I think, these many waves in the industry where company X is hiring and so on. I think it's great. But I'm wondering what's Aon doing to not so much recruit talent as to train it from scratch, or to grow it from scratch?

Gregory Clarence Case, CEO

Meyer, we would love to spend all the time we can with you on this. This is what I was trying to point out earlier with Edmund as well. Moving bodies around doesn't really achieve anything. How does simply relocating people lead to better choices? You bring in colleagues because they are the ones driving this. It's all about the people. They want more capabilities and better solutions. An example comes from a construction company that gained insights they didn't have before, thanks to our colleagues and producers. It's about empowering someone to improve their performance. They are fantastic at driving change. Now, with the seven analyzers, they are even more effective. They utilized a property analyzer that included reinsurance content, which allowed a commercial company to make decisions about global property placement using the relevant information from reinsurance. This decision-making process, influenced by impact forecasting, is remarkable. A producer gets access to that, making them more effective. Broker Copilot captures information in a way that's never been done before, allowing for real-time comparisons. Our colleagues see this and are impressed. For us, enabling a producer to perform better in real-time with a client and navigate solutions in the market is crucial. On the insurance side, if we can assist them in the reinsurance market similarly, that’s significant. Talent should lead to improved client solutions. If we fall short of that, we fail, and our clients suffer. We are not here to critique what others do. We know many approaches have been tried and tested. It’s important for you to understand that we are different. We’re not claiming superiority, although we like our chances, but our approach to the market and talent is distinct, and it’s resonating. It’s connecting well with NFP and is impactful within Aon regarding how we attract talent. Hopefully, this provides some insight into our different perspective. Just wanted to say thanks, everyone, for joining and look forward to talking to you next quarter.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines and log off at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.