Earnings Call Transcript
ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC. (ARE)
Earnings Call Transcript - ARE Q2 2010
Rhonda Chiger, IR
Thank you everyone. This conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27-A of the Securities Act of 1933 as amended and Section 21-E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. Such forward-looking statements include without limitation statements regarding our 2010 earnings per share diluted attributable to ARE's common stockholders, 2010 FFO per share diluted attributable to ARE's common stockholders, the business plans of certain tenants and the expected impact of the retirement or conversion of our unsecured convertible notes. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, without limitation, our failure to obtain capital, debt construction financing and/or equity or refinance debt maturities, increased interest rates and operating costs, adverse economic or real estate developments in our markets, our failure to successfully complete and lease our existing space held for redevelopment and new properties acquired for that purpose and any properties undergoing development, our failure to successfully operate or lease acquired properties, decreased rental rates or increased vacancy rates or failure to renew or replace expiring leases, defaults on or non-renewal of leases by tenants, general and local economic conditions and other risks and uncertainties detailed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Joel Marcus.
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
Thank you, Rhonda. Welcome to the second quarter 2010 conference call. Let me start off with some macro comments quickly. Those of you who read Alan Abelson's column each Saturday in Barron's will remember about a week or two ago, he indicated that despite the periodic winning streak, we're still in the grip of the secular bear market that has years to run. So in light of this cautious business climate, it's nice to know that contrary to significant negative budgetary spending at the fed and the state level, this is not translated into a measurable dip in R&D investment by the broad and diverse life science sector. Despite the deep recession, pharma and bio have spent last year's $65.3 billion in R&D compared to $1.5 billion from 2008. Our number two client tenant, Roche, ranked number one with over $9 billion of R&D spending. Our number 10 client tenant, Pfizer, was number two at $7.85 billion. Our number one tenant, Novartis, was number three with $7.47 billion. So we're very pleased about that. We also have not had a space go vacant due to pharma M&A, and we're very thankful for that, given our adjacency locations. Among a number of critical challenges coming up is the growing clinical trial complexity, challenging drug development and the obvious need to contain rising costs. We think there is a significant opportunity where ARE will focus its platform on this emerging area. Another interesting opportunity that has come to us relates to something called the Cures Acceleration Network. It's a newly formed translational research program at the NIH, designed to bridge discovery from the lab to clinical testing. $500 million have been set aside for approximately 20 drug development programs and another 20 projects using compounds that companies have abandoned, and we expect to benefit directly from that program. Looking at ARE with the best adjacency locations to the critical innovation centers, the best-in-class assets and the best-in-class asset services, we've attracted big pharma to our asset base at an ever-growing pace as they pare back their silo research locations on big, remote and isolated campuses. The July 6 Financial Times focused on the key issue of critical success factors for clusters. I recommend that for your reading. In the toughest quarter in the financial history of the country back in the first quarter of '09, many of you will recall, we announced signing leases for our first-in-class 200 Tech Square project adjacent to the MIT campus with Glaxo, Pfizer, and Novartis. So in addition to recently attracting biotech oncology jewel, Onyx Pharmaceuticals, to South San Francisco, we also helped bring Bayer AG Pharma's U.S. Innovation Center to Mission Bay. An interesting quote reported in the San Francisco papers by Terry Hermiston, site head, stated, 'The driving force for locating our U.S. Innovation Center in Mission Bay is the proximity to scientists from academia and young biotechs and the opportunity this holds to jointly turn great ideas into the next-generation treatments for our patients. It is important to acknowledge the importance of partnerships and collaborations in the new economy in this location.' A great credit to our management team and superior regional teams. Moving on to the operating and financial results for the second quarter, Dean will give you a lot more detail. We reported $1.10 FFO per diluted share, excluding the 8% convertible tender transaction. On the balance sheet, the company is continuing its focus on deliberate debt payoff and pay down. This will continue quarter-to-quarter into 2011, partially funded with sales of selected non-income producing assets. Dean will provide more detail on the successful tender, the 8% convertible notes and the early work being done on the renewal of the $1.15 billion line of credit. We're all pleased with the terms, conditions, duration, and capacity. We're looking intensively at some selected joint venture relationships, needing to deploy additional capital to our multifaceted growth program and platform. The Board will carefully consider a potential dividend increase in 2011. Moving on to internal growth and related metrics, we had a solid second quarter on same property results, which we're very gratified by. We have continued our unbroken streak of positive same property results, likely a record for almost any REIT out there. GAAP was up about 1% and cash about 2.5%. On the occupancy side, we're stable at about 94% with a historical average of about 95.2%. In San Diego, we lost 50 basis points but expect to turn around over the coming quarters as we are heavily focused on strengthening our number one position as the dominant life science landlord in San Diego. The Bay Area picked up about 80 basis points attributable to strong leasing and solidification of the submarkets economically on the West side of the San Francisco Bay Area. In Eastern Massachusetts, we lost about 50 basis points primarily due to a number of lease rolls, yet we have about 1% vacancy in our Cambridge Life Science niche, far better than the current 8% to 10% for other existing owners. We expect to see a positive pickup in the coming quarters, and we will report that to you. Sanofi-Aventis announced it will open a 300-person oncology research unit in Cambridge, while Merck is closing a duplicated Schering-Plough lab. We are not impacted by either of these situations. In the Southeast, we had a positive 60 basis point pickup in a market which continues to exhibit overall weakness. In the Suburban D.C. market, we've had a positive 40 basis point pickup, waiting to see how the second half NIH stimulus funding plays out. Seattle had a dip, primarily because Gilead moved out of smaller space into our build-to-suit but we expect Seattle to remain strong for us. On the leasing side, we had a very satisfying quarter with strong leasing. GAAP was up about 5%, and we're about breakeven on cash performance. We leased over 550,000 square feet, 135,000 from redevelopment phase with an average of five years in minimal TIs and leasing costs. With the remaining rolls in 2010, we've got about 588,000 square feet compared to about 685,000 in the first quarter, which looks manageable. We reported about 29% leased, 5% negotiating and anticipating, 22% in redevelopment, really just two buildings, a shell building in San Diego and an industrial building in Seattle that we'll redevelop, and 44% being marketed at this point. We feel very comfortable with where we are year-to-date, expecting a 5% uptick in GAAP rents. For 2011 lease rolls, we have about 1.46 million, down from about 1.7 million in the first quarter. In the second quarter, we noted in the press release, we have good leasing on 2011 rolls at the moment, with about 6% leased, 35% negotiating and anticipating, and 30% in redevelopment. We look forward to converting 400 Tech Square, our small office building, like we did with 200 Tech Square. We also have two buildings, one large office coming back to us in Seattle for redevelopment. Finally, 29% of the space is being marketed for 2011. We expect around a 5% uptick in GAAP rents rolling in 2011. On redevelopments, we noted about 238,000 square feet delivered, 56% leased. The big success is an office building we bought as part of our East Cambridge assemblage. Initially, we believed it was a low-rise office that we couldn't embed last space, but we were incorrect, managing to convert some of the space. Our lab conversion cost on the converted space ran about $8.8 million, generating a lab NOI of around $1.2 million, resulting in about a 14% return on invested capital. Our client tenant base remains extremely strong and well-diversified, led by Novartis, Roche, and Glaxo. An interesting mention; the front page of the New York Times business section on July 26 featured one of our premier San Diego Clean Tech companies, Sapphire Energy, claiming backing from top two ventures and Bill Gates personally. On the external growth side concerning development, two tenants are in progress. We signed a 49,000 square foot lease with Bayer AG, moving them to Mission Bay North. We secured Onyx Pharmaceuticals for 100% of the space at 249 East Grand, leasing 58,000 square feet of the remaining phase. We must now focus on the 162,000 square feet in South San Francisco and East Jamie Court, as we have seen no tangible progress over the last quarter unfortunately. In East River, we have a signed LOI and are working on a lease for a sophisticated build-out with a three-floor 75,000 square foot second anchor translational research. For the two remaining lab floors, totaling about 50,000 square feet, we have signed one significant European firm for about 3,200 feet. We also have a lease out for signature on almost 14,000 square feet to a tenant focused on genetics and genomics and small molecule drug development. The remaining deals include about 9,000 square feet working on an LOI for some drug development phases and a startup in 3,000. We're hopeful that in the next quarter, we can report progress on stabilization there. Regarding land, we've put our Mission Bay South parcels for hospital-related office and medical office on the market with extremely strong interest either through a sale, ground lease, or joint venture. We believe we can deliver an existing 180,000 square foot requirement for a credit tenant. We're also in the early stages of large credit tenant build-to-suit at Mission Bay. On our East Bay, 1.7 million square foot assemblage, we've received final approval, which is a great achievement. We're having ongoing discussions with prospects for build-to-suit. On the acquisition side, we closed on an attractive off-market 68,000 square foot life science property in San Diego post-second quarter for about $23 million, where the anchor tenant for about 52,000 feet has a long-term lease through 2022. That building is about 90% stabilized, achieving about an 8% cash yield on that transaction. Based on other recent life science transactions in San Diego where a vacant building recently sold for over $300 a foot, and adjacent land for approximately $80 a foot, we believe we made a prudent purchase. Lastly, the university and institutional on-campus redevelopment and development program continues intensely, and we anticipate reporting success there on several fronts over the coming quarters and the next year.
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
Thanks, Joel. Let me jump right into our solid operating results, balance sheet matters, including the successful tender offer we completed, sources and uses of capital, and lastly our 2010 guidance. Our strategy and business model continue to deliver stable and consistent operating results. Our solid operating results are attributable to our ongoing diligent focus on strategic adjacency locations to key research institutions and key life science cluster markets, ownership of the highest-quality laboratory properties in location, quality, design, and efficiency of laboratory facilities, continuous development of the most talented and highly experienced real estate and laboratory facility personnel located in each of the important life sciences across their submarkets, a very unique life science underwriting team, and our favorable restructure. As a reminder, 97% of our leases provide for the recovery of substantially all of the operating expenses, consisting of 89% triple net leases, with an additional 8% providing for the recovery of the majority of operating expenses. 94% of our leases provide for annual rent escalations generally in the 3% to 3.5% range, with approximately 92% of our leases providing for the recovery of major capital expenditures. Our average occupancy percentage for December 31st of each year from 1998 through 2009 and including June 30, 2010, was over 95%. We are through the first half of 2010 and on our way to our 12th year of positive increases in rental rates on new and renewal leases for previously leased space and our 48th consecutive quarter of positive same property results, again up 2.5% on a cash basis for the quarter. Let me briefly mention that our annualized leasing activity for 2010 approximates 2.1 million square feet, representing a run rate of over 1 million square feet for the last two quarters of 2010. Compare this run rate to the 2010 remaining expiring leases reported on page 26 of our supplemental package of 261,000 square feet, and we are in a really good position to favorably resolve these rollovers over the next two quarters. The 2010 remaining expiring leases of 261,000 square feet are slightly up from the 228,000 square feet reported in the last quarter due to a few short-term leases executed in the second quarter, including a tenant moving from a month-to-month lease to a nine-month lease. We expect a good portion of these leases will extend again on a short-term to medium-term basis. Operating margins remain solid at approximately 74%. G&A as a percent of total revenues was approximately 7%, which has trended down on an absolute dollar basis since the first quarter. We are still projecting total G&A expenses for 2010 to decline in comparison to 2009. Next, regarding our value-added projects, we continue to advance important preconstruction activities on several strategic land parcels, including those at Mission Bay, San Francisco, and the Binney Street project in East Cambridge. Ultimately, these assets will be developed into high-quality life science entities and will generate significant revenue and cash flows. During the quarter, we announced final zoning approval for our transformative life science development in East Cambridge, consisting of 1.7 million square feet of state-of-the-art laboratory facilities. We progressed preconstruction activities to an appropriate stage related to the parcel supporting the future ground-up development of approximately 300,000 square feet in San Diego and seize capitalization of preconstruction costs, including interest, taxes, and insurance. By the end of 2010, we anticipate approximately 80% of our 865,000 square feet under development will be leased, with a portion committed to deliver these projects, resulting in significant revenue and cash flows and a corresponding decline of required capitalization of interest. Additionally, our land parcels will provide significant opportunities for monetization, capital to repay outstanding debt, and reinvestment into our business. We have several ongoing negotiations for the sale of land parcels ranging in size from approximately $5 million to greater than $100 million, all expected to be sold at a gain with some at very significant gains. In addition to raising capital, the planned sales are anticipated to provide important valuation data points well above our book basis for our strategically well-located land holdings. Capitalization of interest for the second quarter declined by about $1.2 million to approximately $18.3 million, and capitalization is expected to continue to decline meaningfully over the next two quarters, primarily due to delivery of significant spaces from our redevelopment and development programs. Next, regarding our balance sheet, consistent with my comments last quarter, the lending environment continues to show considerable strength. Secured debt lenders continue to bid aggressively for high-quality assets with high-quality sponsorship. Interest rates continue to drop down to the low-to-mid 5% range. Banks and insurance companies are aggressively pursuing quality real estate transactions and are focused on quality publicly-traded REIT sponsors. Later in the fourth quarter, we will begin our formal discussions and negotiations with our lenders for amending our revolving line of credit. The financing environment for credit facilities continues to improve each quarter. Banks continue to establish new relationships, providing commitments up to $200 million, while existing lenders continue to increase their commitments, although some banks are not renewing theirs. Based on ongoing discussions with important lending relationships, we have a high level of confidence that we will successfully amend our line of credit later this year, and I'm optimistic that we will have the opportunity to renew our revolving line of credit close to or at its current size of $1.15 billion. Our tenant receivable balance as of quarter-end was approximately $3.1 million and continues to represent a low balance compared to our receivable balances over the last several years. Our supplemental package contains recently extended disclosures about the strength and diversification of our tenant base, and we are confident that our top 20 tenants represent a stellar top tenant list, especially compared to other highly-regarded, publicly-related REITs. During the quarter, we successfully completed the retirement of all of our 8% notes, except for $250,000 of the notes that remain outstanding today. As a reminder, since the issuance of our 8% notes, we have applied the if-converted method of accounting. In all quarters through the first quarter 2010, we included the underlying 5.8 million shares in our weighted average diluted shares outstanding for FFO purposes. The tender offer included the issuance of common shares equal to the shares that the noteholders would have received had they exercised their conversion right. As a result, shares issued in the tender offer did not increase our protected weighted average shares outstanding for the 12 months ended December 31, 2010. However, for FFO per share purposes, for the three and six months ended June 30, due to the $41.5 million loss on the early extinguishment of debt, the if-converted method of accounting was anti-dilutive. Therefore, the weighted average shares outstanding for the three and six months ended June 30 excluded the if-converted shares. We expect the weighted average shares outstanding for the year ended December 31 to include approximately 5.6 million shares related to our 8% notes and related tender offer. In July, we've also retired an additional seven million of the bonds and will recognize an additional loss on early extinguishment of debt of approximately $1.3 million, or roughly $0.03 for FFO per share diluted. Moving on to sources and uses, our balance sheet provides us significant flexibility, including the ability to monetize certain income and non-income-producing assets. Our balance sheet capacity, along with conservative and reasonable assumptions for sources of capital, highlights the flexibility we have to address our uses of capital through 2014. Sources include $454 million of availability under our credit facility, $111 million of cash on hand, $80 million of annual free cash flows, an increase above $100 million in the next couple of years, $75 million to $100 million of new loans or refinancings in 2011 and each year thereafter, and a $100 million plus year of asset sales. We remain optimistic that we will be well ahead of our projected land sales during the coming quarters. It is important to keep in mind that this list of sources of capital is not exhaustive, and that other sources of capital may be utilized to successfully execute our capital plan in addition to making adjustments to our capital plan as appropriate. In summary, this list of sources highlights the flexibility we have in meeting uses of capital through 2014. Turning to uses, our estimate for construction spending for the remainder of 2010 is approximately $160 million, which includes an estimate to complete at about $70 per square foot for redevelopment and about $139 per square foot for our development projects. We also assume the repayment of secured debt maturities over the next few years, net of approximately $284 million of refinancings related to our two largest secure debt maturities. Furthermore, we assume the successful renewal of our revolving line of credit that I previously discussed concerning the repayment of our 3-7 convertible notes. Therefore, our uses of capital are meaningfully less than our sources of capital, as highlighted. Turning to credit metrics, net debt to gross assets was 42.8%, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA was approximately eight times; we anticipate this improving in the coming quarters and years. Unencumbered NOI constitutes a large portion of our operating assets at about 56% of total NOI. Book value of unencumbered assets as a percentage of gross assets was 72%. The weighted average interest rate as of June 30, our outstanding debt, was about 4.52%. This rate reflects a specific point in time and differs from our weighted average interest rate for capitalization of interest, which is based on average interest cost during the three-month period in the quarter. Facility covenants are specific to each company and depend on terms and definitions in each facility agreement. We believe our credit metrics related to our facility covenants are solid for our business. Leverage at the end of the quarter was in the 42% to 43% range and is capped at 65%. Secured debt percentage remains below 15%, our limit being 55%. Fixed charges remain solid at approximately two times, over the limit of 1.4 times. Our capital plan over the next several years is manageable under conservative and reasonable assumptions. Over the next several years, our goal will be to keep debt and balance sheet metrics aligned with capital from debt and equity broadly defined, with equity capital including reinvestment of free cash flows, sales of income and non-income producing assets, opportunistic JV capital, and common equity. We also expect improved credit metrics over the coming quarters and into the next few years. Three important items to highlight that will collectively impact debt to EBITDA include: first, completing the tender offer for 8% notes, transitioning the shares into our outstanding common shares, reflecting treatment under the if-converted method of accounting; second, examining the repayment of our outstanding debt, assuming the successful completion of several land parcel sales, proceeds funding construction spending over time; and third, anticipating significant NOI and EBITDA contributions from various redevelopment and development projects in the coming two to three quarters. These three items are projected for completion over the next few quarters, serving as reasonable assumptions for the near term, positively impacting net debt to EBITDA. Lastly, for 2010 guidance, FFO per share was $3.57 on a normalized basis, excluding losses from the early extinguishment of debt. We reconfirm our guidance at $4.43, and we updated our guidance twice for losses recognized and expected in the third quarter. Our guidance for earnings per share was $1.3, and is based on various underlying assumptions reflecting our outlook for 2010, including: occupancy forecasted to be flat to slightly up by year-end, property results projected modestly on both GAAP and cash basis with stronger same-property performance forecasted for 2011. Straight line rents are expected to increase over the next two quarters as we deliver long-term leases from our development projects. Margins are projected in the 73% to 74% range, with G&A expenses expected in the low $30 million range. By year-end, we anticipate 80% of the 865,000 square feet undergoing development to be leased, generating significant revenue, FFO, and cash flows. Capitalization of interest is expected in the mid $60 million range, lower than in 2009, reflecting the substantial delivery of square footage from our redevelopment and development programs. Lastly, our guidance assumes the collection of non-income and income-producing assets over the coming years.
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
Operator, if we could open it up for Q&A please?
Operator, Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Anthony Paolone from JPMorgan.
Anthony Paolone, Analyst at JPMorgan
My first question is for Joel. Your tenant roster is very strong from a credit point of view, and you guys seem to have come up as winners in a lot of the M&A in your space. But can you help tie together for us how the future looks? If you continue to see a lot of M&A with your tenants, can we expect as much total demand for lab space over the next five years compared to the last five to ten years?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
Thanks, Tony. That's an important and relevant question, one we've been examining. I think you are going to see far less M&A at the top level, among the top 15 big pharma companies, all of which are clients of ours. You'll see more of what’s happening today, with reports and rumors, such as Sanofi's interest in potentially acquiring Genzyme. I expect a transformation of big pharma, which have great balance sheets, ample capital, and are significantly rebuilding their pipelines. They will likely look to expand in critical adjacency locations, both at the research level and product sales by acquiring companies intact, keeping them operating for sales from significant products. This could lead to mergers of some big biotechs and big pharmas. However, predicting the rate of increase is challenging. Recently, we learned Roche is considering future expansion plans after integrating with Genentech. Companies typically take time to rationalize operations after acquisitions, and while we might see cutbacks in some areas, I don’t foresee any trend toward cutting back major research in core areas. If you remain connected to the major institutions, I think we will continue to see a positive trend. However, predicting the growth rate is still uncertain. But it's clear that these companies will evolve; instead of merely being pure drug manufacturers, they'll become integrated healthcare service and product providers over time. The expansion of healthcare coverage under recent legislation will significantly support industry growth.
Anthony Paolone, Analyst at JPMorgan
I have a few further questions. In the redevelopment pipeline, you have projects in Eastern Massachusetts coming in later this year where no activity appears currently. Can you clarify what’s going on there?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
There are three total assets. The first is a 33,000 square foot facility where we're negotiating space, so we're in good shape. There are two others, one is a 113,000 square foot facility still undergoing redevelopment, still in marketing stages. We're in the very initial stages of discussion, but not yet at a stage where we can show progress. Lastly, there is a 30,000 square foot building in a multi-tenant situation, which I think will be successful, resolving in the near term as it meets market requirements well.
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
Additionally, keep in mind, especially with the 113,000 square foot facility, it's a more suburban-oriented project that can accommodate a broad range of users. Therefore, we’re expanding our search for users beyond just pure R&D life science. We're optimistic about this.
Anthony Paolone, Analyst at JPMorgan
Last question; it seems year-to-date you've recorded 681,000 square feet of new and renewal leasing at $4.83 per square foot for TIs and leasing commissions. What is the range of CapEx spent for this type of leasing? Are there many that don't spend anything, and those that spend $20, or is it mostly a tight range?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
I would say we have some that require little to no capital invested. For a few with capital needs, costs are relatively minimal. The average cost is consistent as we have very few major CapEx opportunities going into re-tenanting. On page 42 of our report, we have historical data over a five-year average for CapEx, TIs, and leasing costs, averaging between $3 to $5 based on the category.
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
I was recently in one of the markets and spoke with someone, a publicly traded REIT that commented on their properties, noting they have to demo space and redo it almost every time. They were amazed at our lab asset, inquiring how we can utilize nearly all the existing infrastructure for re-leasing. It's not their focus but indicates a contrasting perspective.
Suzanne Kim, Analyst at Credit Suisse
I’m curious about monetizing assets for these big pharma companies looking to replenish their pipeline. Are you observing a trend in this area?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
Yes, that is indeed the plan. Companies are employing three major strategies for this replenishment. One approach involves refocusing R&D out of silo campuses in remote locations. All top 15 pharma clients have made concerted efforts to do so. Novartis, for instance, moved their R&D headquarters from Basel, Switzerland to Cambridge a few years ago. This strategy is being adopted rapidly as companies conclude they cannot engage effectively from remote campuses. Another viable strategy involves diversifying through acquisitions, like Novartis purchasing Alcon Eyecare for $40 billion. They see major potential in the ophthalmic business, driven by an aging population. Finally, companies pursue classic M&A opportunities by acquiring smaller pharma or biotech firms. These acquisitions assist with enhancing revenues and product pipelines.
Suzanne Kim, Analyst at Credit Suisse
Are you seeing a notable trend of this occurring more in the past year or two, or is it a steady pace?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
The number of major M&A deals may have declined due to the financial debacle we've experienced, but you might still see selective, strategic transactions occur when circumstances allow. Pfizer's acquisition of Wyeth was significant, yet financial constraints from the credit crisis stalled subsequent deals. The tempo may not increase rapidly, but I suspect there will be selective activity. Some companies have different strategies for advancement; akin to Pfizer whose acquisition was intended to bolster their biological business, given a looming patent cliff and a need for new products.
Suzanne Kim, Analyst at Credit Suisse
Regarding operations, I was calculating but it appears you need to perform slightly more than you have in the first quarter and second quarter in FFO. It was 109 in the first quarter and 110 in the second. To meet the midpoint of $3.57, you need $1.13. What’s the catalyst driving your outlook for the next few quarters?
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
Nothing has changed in our outlook. Our guidance remains strong, and we expect FFO growth through the year. In the second half, there are numerous projects on both the redevelopment and development sides scheduled to begin, delivering long-term leases. For instance, our New York project will contribute FFO starting in the third quarter, with more contribution expected by Q1 of '11. As for our same-store performance, we expect continued positive results along with steady leasing activity.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
I hope you can help with estimating the magnitude and timing for the external developments, specifically the campus program. Secondly, concerning the 38% in process at East River, what likelihood do we assign to those?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
Regarding the university and institutional programs on-campus or directly nearby, these are long-term pursuits. They involve detailed financing issues tied to nonprofit or tax-exempt bonds and typically involve state universities undergoing complex approval processes. These processes demand time for relationship-building and define particular building sites. While not short-term, they possess significant value for high-quality tenants and long-term leases. For East River, I feel confident about our position. However, timelines can be tricky; I recall our negotiation with Eli Lilly took around four to six months. But we have high chances to stabilize East River by year-end based on the negotiations in progress.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
Continuing on the campus program, will we likely see more fee-related developments, or include joint ventures?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
It depends on the specific structures we explore. Some could be ground leases, while others might be fee development or joint ventures, reflecting various revenue sources. Given we're establishing relationships with several higher education institutions, we expect multiple revenue streams as these projects develop.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst at Bank of America/Merrill Lynch
Reflecting on Genzyme's real estate footprint, what implications do you foresee if a transaction occurs?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
If Sanofi or another buyer moves forward, I don't see them altering much operationally. There may be efforts to combine their research footprint, especially if they decide to shift worldwide research from France to Cambridge. In such a case, it could grow Sanofi’s presence in the U.S.
Quentin Velleley, Analyst at Citi
Hello, it’s Quentin Velleley. We’re with Mark Owen and Mark Montandon. We see you making progress on land sales. Can you offer insights into the scale and timing of these sales?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
Regarding size, we expect transactions ranging from a couple of million dollars to several exceeding $100 million, but I can't divulge specifics yet as some are actively in the market. Overall, I see significant transactions potential and anticipate the completion of at least one significant sale by year-end. This sale will not only raise a significant amount of capital but also provide a critical data point for valuation, as we've seen a lot of speculation on land values over the past two years.
Quentin Velleley, Analyst at Citi
If a transaction occurs towards year-end, wouldn’t it not contribute to your guidance from selling non-income assets and de-leveraging?
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
In terms of guidance, that's correct—nothing significant would impact us from those sales within that timeframe.
Quentin Velleley, Analyst at Citi
Looking at your lease roll schedule on page 30 of the supplemental, your remaining expiring leases for 2010 actually increased by over 30,000 square feet, while your leased space decreased by 75,000 square feet. Can you explain?
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
The lease column for 2010 and 2011 represents leases executed post the reporting period. These leases can also include those rolling later in the year, which are executed with new tenants taking the space afterward. Therefore, while we execute a lease in the quarter that removes it from being classified as an expiring lease, that column reflects activity occurring in the second quarter, which may cause fluctuations.
Quentin Velleley, Analyst at Citi
So how did the remaining expiring leases increase from 228,000 square feet to 261,000 square feet?
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
This represents new leases executed during the quarter. We also had multiple short-term leases in place earlier that led to this increase, in addition to monthly tenants transitioning to longer agreements.
Quentin Velleley, Analyst at Citi
Lastly, regarding joint ventures, we've heard discussions for years but nothing has materialized. Are we close to seeing actual deals this time?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
I recall back in ’06 and ’07, we had negotiations for two joint ventures, but the financial situation that began around September '08 halted those efforts. We’ve now had detailed discussions around potential development projects with institutional partners capable of providing funding alongside us. There's potential for these partnerships, but no guarantees yet—it could evolve into multiple opportunities in the future.
Quentin Velleley, Analyst at Citi
For guidance, are you accounting for increases in development deliveries in your forecasts, or are they net neutral for 2010?
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
Yes, projects will typically be accretive on both the development and redevelopment side. The difference between the churn on your investment and your return is balanced in these projects—so typically, the receipt of cash flows will enhance FFO. I haven’t provided detailed numbers quarter-to-quarter, but conservatively expect the total development pipeline will likely generate around $45 million in NOI upon stabilization, with an estimated low of $20 million from redevelopments in total contribution.
Sheila McGrath, Analyst at KBW
Most of my questions have been addressed. However, Joel, could you provide an update on the Cambridge entitlement? Do you foresee selling land parcels there? And will we see activity over the next 12 months or is this long-term?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
We are developing several buildings, totaling 1.7 million square feet along East Cambridge, with one parcel capable of supporting about 338,000 square feet that isn't immediately connected to the main campus. We haven't actively marketed it, but for the right user, it might be a viable option. We’re intensively coordinating site planning and designs for each building so that they are ready when a tenant expresses interest. Therefore, I predict we can expect short to medium-term opportunities. Regarding East River, stabilization is expected around the first quarter of 2011. We intend to deliver space as tenants engage. Lilly's occupancy will begin next month, and we’re working with other tenants on their needs.
Will Marks, Analyst at JMP Securities
You mentioned income from developments; could you clarify regarding this and the expected timing?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
The $20 million NOI line noted previously was for the entire redevelopment output. We're enhancing efforts to advance on projects that will generate revenue.
Dean Shigenaga, CFO
Regrettably, we haven't shown good comparable examples for our investments. We're awaiting compelling circumstances to establish precise valuations and property conditions. However, we're working toward establishing reasonable valuation estimates for potential land sales in the future.
John Stewart, Analyst at Green Street Advisors
Could you give us a brief update on your international operations and plans?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
We're more focused domestically at this time, though we are completing a building in South China that will likely become available for lease or sale this quarter. In northern China, we have two buildings approaching completion, with negotiations underway with potential tenants. Beyond that, we currently do not have any significant international opportunities.
John Stewart, Analyst at Green Street Advisors
What are your plans for replacing Jim Richardson?
Joel Marcus, Chairman, CEO and President
Jim has already been replaced but remains actively involved with the company in various capacities, including being on our Board of Directors. Peter Moglia has stepped into the Chief Investment Officer role, while Jim serves in a consultative capacity. I probably talk to him daily. Thank you very much. We look forward to talking to you late October. Thanks again, everybody.