6-K
ASML HOLDING NV (ASML)
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 6-K
REPORT OFFOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR15d-16
OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For November 14, 2022
Commission File Number 001-33463
ASML Holding N.V.
De Run 6501
5504 DR Veldhoven
The Netherlands
(Addressof principal executive office)
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.
Form 20-F ☒ Form 40-F ☐
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K on paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(1): ☐
Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K on paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(7): ☐
EXHIBITS TO THIS REPORT ON FORM 6-K ARE INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE IN THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-116337), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-126340), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-136362), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-141125), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-142254), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-144356), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-147128), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-153277), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-162439), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-170034), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-188938), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-190023), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-192951), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-203390), THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-219442) AND THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM S-8 (FILE NO. 333-227464) OF ASML HOLDING N.V. AND IN THE OUTSTANDING PROSPECTUSES CONTAINED IN SUCH REGISTRATION STATEMENTS.
Exhibits
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
| ASML HOLDING N.V. (Registrant) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Date: November 14, 2022 | By: | /s/ Peter T.F.M. Wennink |
| Peter T.F.M. Wennink | ||
| Chief Executive Officer |
EX-99.1
Exhibit 99.1
ASML SMALL TALK 2022 INVESTOR DAY VELDHOVEN 1
Opening Skip Miller
Vice President Investor Relations Investor Day Veldhoven ASML SMALL TALK 2022 2
Safety first
- Please locate your nearest emergency exit
- Clear the aisles, place bags under your seat Exit November 11, 2022 Page 3
Other items Restroom locations Please put your phone on silent or airplane mode Presentations will be posted on our website at the end of the day Process for Q&A: in person and online November 11, 2022 Page 4
Question & Answer session November 11, 2022 public Page 5
Agenda Time TopicPresenter 12.30 – 13.30Registration & lunch 13.30 – 13.40Welcome & agendaSkip Miller 13.40 – 14.20End markets & capacity plansPeter Wennink
14.20 – 14.50Business modelRoger Dassen
14.50 – 15.00Closing remarksPeter Wennink 15:00 – 15:30 Break 15:30 – 16:30Q&AASML management 16.30 – 16.35End of formal program November 11, 2022 public
Page 6
Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to expected trends, including trends in end markets and the technology industry and business environment trends, expected lithography and semiconductor industry growth and growth rates and revenue, capital intensity outlook, expected growth in semiconductor end markets, expected growth in wafer demand and capacity and additional wafer capacity requirements, expected investments in wafer capacity and plans to increase capacity, expected growth in lithography spend, opportunity for growth in service and upgrades and expected growth in Installed Base Management sales, expected increase in capacity and plan for ASML and its suppliers to increase capacity and output to meet demand, expected production of systems, updated model for 2025 and 2030, outlook and expected, modelled or potential financial results, including revenue projections and annual revenue opportunity gross margin, R&D costs, SG&A costs, capital expenditure, cash conversion cycle and annualized effective tax rate for 2025 and 2030 and assumptions underlying such expected, modelled or potential amounts, and other assumptions underlying our business and financial models, expected trends in semiconductor end markets and long term growth opportunities, demand and demand drivers, expected growth in the semiconductor industry including demand growth and expected capital spend in the coming years, the impact of technology sovereignty and foundry competition, statements with respect to dividends and share buybacks and dividend policy, including expectation of growing dividends and buybacks and statements with respect to ASML’s new buyback plan, energy generation and consumption trends and the drive toward energy efficiency, increasing technological sovereignty across the world, including specific goals of countries across the world, increasing competition in the foundry business and other non-historical statements. You can generally identify these statements by the use of words like “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “project”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “potential”, “intend”, “continue”, “target”, “future”, “progress”, “goal” and variations of these words or comparable words. These statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections about our business and our future financial results and readers should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements do not guarantee future performance and involve a number of substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand and capacity for our customers’ products, performance of our systems, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and measures taken to contain it on us, our suppliers, the global economy and financial markets, the impact of the Russian military actions in the Ukraine and measures taken in response on the global economy and global financial markets and other factors that may impact ASML’s financial results, including customer demand and ASML’s ability to obtain parts and components for its products and otherwise meet demand, the success of technology advances and the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of and demand for new products, risks relating to execution of technology roadmaps, demand and production capacity and our and our supplier’s ability to increase capacity to meet demand, the impact of inflation and any recession, investments in capacity and lithography spend, our ability to meet the goals and expectations in our business and financial models and whether the assumptions underlying our models prove to be reasonable and accurate, the number and timing of systems ordered, shipped and recognized in revenue, and the risk of order cancellation or push out, supply chain capacity and constraints and logistics and constraints on our ability to produce systems to meet demand, our ability to increase capacity including our infrastructure and workforce, our ability to control costs and maintain and improve gross margin and competitive position, trends in the semiconductor industry, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights and the outcome of intellectual property disputes and litigation, availability of raw materials, critical manufacturing equipment and qualified employees, trade environment, geopolitical risks and impact on our business, import/export and national security regulations and orders and their impact on us including the impact of new U.S. export regulations, changes in exchange and tax rates, available liquidity and liquidity requirements, our ability to refinance our indebtedness, available cash and distributable reserves for, and other factors impacting, dividend payments and share repurchases, results of our share repurchase program and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 and other filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this document. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements after the date of this report or to conform such statements to actual results or revised expectations, except as required by law. November 11, 2022 Page 7 public
Placeholder intro video Page 8 public
ASML SMALL TALK 2022 INVESTOR DAY VELDHOVEN Page 9
EX-99.2
Exhibit 99.2
Megatrends, wafer demand and capacity plans to support future growth Peter Wennink President & Chief Executive Officer Investor Day Veldhoven 1
Megatrends, wafer demand and capacity plans to support future growth Key messages Global trends•While the current macro environment creates near-term uncertainties, we see longer- continue to fuelterm wafer demand and capacity showing healthy growth semiconductor•Expanding application space and industry innovation are expected to continue to fuel growthgrowth across semiconductor markets •This translates to semi end market annual growth rate of around 9% and a doubling of semiconductor revenue (2020-2030) This drives an •Strong growth rates across markets, continued innovation, more foundry competition increase in demandand technological sovereignty drive an increased demand at advanced and mature for wafers intonodes, which requires wafer capacity additions of over 780 thousand wafer starts per month per year, or a CAGR of 6.5% (2020-2030) the next decade To meet that•We plan to adjust our capacity to meet future demand, preparing for cyclicality demand, ASML andwhile sharing risks and rewards fairly with all stakeholders its partners are•We plan to increase our capacity to 90 Low-NA EUV and 600 DUV systems adding capacity(2025-2026), while also ramping High-NA EUV capacity to 20 systems (2027-2028) November 11, 2022 Page 2 public
Megatrends Wafer demand Changes from Investor Day 2021 Capacity expansion Page 3 public
The world is changing fast Connected Climate change andSocial and worldresource scarcityeconomic shifts • Smarter cities, factories, homes, cars• Rising energy use• Rising population • Connecting billions of ‘things’ • Exploding energy costs• Higher medical costs • Unprecedented data volumes• Accelerating climate change• Faster urbanization • Privacy in a connected world• More waste and pollution• Need for tech talent • Cybersecurity• Fragile food chains• Deglobalization • … • Material shortages• Technological sovereignty • …• … Page 4 public public
The world is changing fast and technology can help unlock thepotential ConnectedClimate change andSocial and worldresource scarcityeconomic shifts AI CloudArtificialEnergyElectrification,Working,Healthcare, infrastructureintelligencetransitionsmart mobilitylearning remotelymedical tech 5G Hyperconnectivity EdgeAgriculturalSmarter use ofTechnologicalAutomation computinginnovationlimited resourcessovereignty November 11, 2022 page 5 public
The connected intelligent edge delivers new and enhanced services Artificial intelligence of things Local network analytics VoiceObject Low-latency interactiveConnectedactivationclassification content Text intelligent edgerecognitionFingerprint Boundless XRbrings new enhanced services (eXtended Reality) FaceOn-device detectionsecurity On-demand computingVoiceGesture/hand recognitiontracking Industrial automationComputationalContextual and controlphotographyawareness Edge cloud AI + On-device AI Enterprise data Source: Qualcomm, What’s the role of artificial intelligence in the future of 5G and beyond?, September 21, 2021 November 11, 2022 Page 6 public
Energy transition will be one of the market drivers over the coming decades Semiconductors are crucial in generation, storage, distribution, consumption of electrical energy Generation Accelerated migration to different energy mix due to environmental, scarcity and geopolitical factors1 Green energy generators have high-power semiconductor content2: • Wind: ~3,000 €/MW • Solar: ~4,000 €/MW Consumption Accelerated conversion from fossil to electrical in mobility • ~70% of car sales in 2030 will be xEV (up from ~15% in 2021)3 Semi content ~2X from fossil cars to EV, and ADAS is an additional driver • EV: >$1,500 per vehicle in this decade3 Sources 1: Shell-2021 The energy transition scenarios 2: Infineon-August 2022: Third quarter FY2022- quarterly update 3: Infineon-October 2022: Automotive Division Call xEV: all types of electric vehicles, including mild hybrid electric vehicles November 11, 2022 Page 7 public
More integrated systems require both advanced and mature nodes An automotive integrated system has a spectrum of scalable, flexible computing solutions Actuators Domain/zone control Comms gateway Central core Smart control Compute intensive real-time actions Low latency communications System’s main computer More mature High control capacity Signal-oriented operations Hard real-time requirements More advanced High processing capacity Service-oriented operations Soft real-time requirements Source: Based on Lars Reger, NXP, “Changing the world with rolling robots – requirements for collaboration, innovation and supply”, IMEC Future summit, May 2022 Page 8 public
Countries push for ‘technological sovereignty’, fueling capex spend CHIPS Act, European Integrated Circuit Industry Investment FABS ActCHIPS ActFund (“Big Fund”) • $52bn• $46bn• $20.7bn Phase 1 • Investment tax credits• $30.5bn Phase 2 • Tax breaks Invest Taiwan InitiativeK-Semiconductor BeltSpecified ICT Utilization • Tax credits• Tax credits• $4.42bn • Help securing land, water and electricity• Aim to attract $450bn in private• Subsidies for setup costs investment by 2030 Source: “The resilience myth: Fatal flaws in the push to secure chip supply chains,” Nikkei Asia, July 26, 2022 Page 9 public
ASML ecosystem has considerable means to drive innovation 50 top technology companies in our ecosystem generated $688 billion of EBIT in 2021 In our ecosystem, EBIT has grown at 19% CAGR from 2016 to 2021 ASML Peers Semi Non-Semi Source: Bloomberg, companies’ annual reports, and ASML analysis. Note: EBIT = Earnings before Interest & Taxes; 50 top companies are top IT companies from the GICS 45 classification, according to EBIT rankings, plus Amazon, which is categorized as a retail company by the GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard). This chart uses the total EBIT of a company. November 11, 2022 Page 10 public
And it’s not stopping: the industry has years of device innovation ahead The industry is enabling technologiesin innovative and affordable ways Today’s status Advanced Logic5 nm3 nm2 nm1.x nm1 nm Logic nodes DRAM1A1B1C0A0B0C DRAM nodes NAND176L2xxL2yyL3xxL4xxL>5xxL Number of layers 2021202220232024202520262027202820292030 ProductionDevelopment ResearchRoadmap Page 11 public
The innovation pipeline is filled to the brim 2018202020222024202620282030203220342036 N7N5N3N2A14A10A7A5A3A2 Continued dimensional scaling Metal Pitch 40282221181616-1416-1216-1216-12 [nm] Device and material innovations Metal 76665554<4<4 Tracks FinFET FinFET FinFET GAAGAA GAA GAA CFETCFET CFET Nanosheet Nanosheet Forksheet Forksheet Atomic Context-aware interconnect Source: IMEC, Future Summits, May 2022 Page 12 public
30 years of DRAM: continuous improvements in design rule and bit density This carries on in the coming decade Design rule Density [nm] [Gb] 1,000 100 540 48Gb 690 nm 380 32Gb 260 100 5V 190 24Gb 140 10 (Supply voltage) 92 16Gb 80 8Gb 56 35 D1a 25 20 2Gb 18 17 10 16 1 14 D1b D1c 1Gb 1.1V D0a D0b 512Mb 64Mb 256Mb 1 128Mb 0.1 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Kinam Kim, Samsung, The smallest engine transforming humanity, the past, present and future, IEDM, December 2021 Page 13 public
The semiconductor market is expected to double in 10 years Analysts’ views on 2030 market are ranging from $1.0tn to $1.3tn $1.3tn $1.3tn $1.1tn $1.0tn tn) ( $ $1.0tn sales $0.6tn Semi$0.5tn $0.4tn 2030 Sources: TechInsights, McKinsey, SEMI.org Page 14 public
Semi end markets expected to grow 9% through 2030 All markets contributing; Datacenter, Automotive and Industrial expected to outperform Smartphone ($bn) Personal Computing ($bn) Consumer Electronics ($bn) 213 +6%+3% 125124 12131 145 144 12 13 150 153115 10116+9% 3 102100114 10115 105 11362 666 16 3 42 443 50 36 35 15 16 11120 21 22 23 24 25 26 222 3015 16 1 11 20 21 22 2324 25 26 22 23015 16 1 11 20 21 2223 24 25 26 222 30 Wired & wireless Infrastructure ($bn) Servers, Datacenters & Storage ($bn) Total Semiconductor ($bn) 24Forecast +13% +8%2+61 62 64136 153 53 54 5111 323363 4516 4 100 1CAGR10 30 316361 42 422020-2030+9%+157 15 16 11120 21 22 23 24 25 26 222 3015 16 1 11 20 21 22 2324 25 26 22 230 2 3 Automotive ($bn) Industrial Electronics ($bn) 663 5 5 615 6 4 64 1 14160422422 +14%+12% +18+40335 346 3 102101 25 3 63 165 3 6 30 34 3424140 543 3 46 5250 51 15 16 11120 21 22 23 24 25 26 222 3015 16 1 11 20 21 22 2324 25 26 22 23015 16 1 11 20 21 2223 24 25 26 222 30 Source: Historical data: Gartner. Outlook: Gartner 3Q22 Forecast (Sep22, 2022) for years ’22-’26; Outlook 2030: ASML estimate; segment revenue extrapolated using ’20-’26 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Some deviations from this methodology due to expected growth profile differences across the decadeCMD 2021CMD 2022 CMD 2022—extrapolation November 11, 2022 Page 15 public
Megatrends Wafer demand Changes from Investor Day 2021 Capacity expansion Page 16 public
Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments Higher growth for advanced Logic and mature markets compared to CMD2021 Million wafer starts/monthGrowth/year* ActualsCMD 2021CMD 2022CMD 2022CMD 2021CMD 2022 20202025202520302020-20252020-2030 3.2+0.22 Advanced2.1 1.7 Logic1.0+0.13 ≤28 nm 1.92.2+0.08 DRAM1.41.8+0.08 2.6+0.10 2.12.1 NAND1.6+0.10 8.6+0.38 starts/month6.7 Maturewafer4.8+0.20 Logic >28 nmMillion Source: Gartner, Omdia, ASML analysis. Segment “Other” includes Industrial, Wired and Wireless; +0.51+0.78 * Growth/year linear over periodPCs and laptopsSmartphones and tabletsServers and CloudAutomotiveConsumer incl. wearablesOther November 11, 2022 Page 17 public
Advanced and mature nodes drive investments in wafer capacity ~780k wafers/month per year 2020-2030, CAGR~6.5% Wafers (million wafer/yr) 300mm equivalent Cost-effective innovations •Growing wafer demand and capacity across all market segments drives increased litho demand •Advanced Logic driven by growing application space and energy-efficient transistor growth. •Mature markets driven primarily by strong automotive and industrial demand, mainly in 300 mm but 200 mm also growing kwspm/y kwspm/y Percentage CMD 2021GrowthCAGR 2020-20252020-20302020-2030 NAND+100+1004.9% DRAM+80+804.7% Advanced Logic+125+22012.0% Mature+200+3806.0% Total+505+7806.5% 20102015202020252030 Source: ASML analysis, Advanced Logic ≤2nm, Mature >2nmMatureLogicDRAMNAND Page 19 public
Megatrends Wafer demand Changes from Investor Day 2021 Capacity expansion Page 20 public
We see a range of demand drivers for wafer capacity growth kwspm/yr Additional wafer Demand bucketDemand drivercapacity requiredVariables CMD 2021 2020-2025505 Market• Advanced market growth across segments45•End market segments growth rates driven growthdriven primarily by server and AR/VR.•Geopolitical instabilities • Mature markets growth driven primarily by180 industrial and automotive (incl. electrification) Technology• Larger die sizes are required to improve both50•Innovation by needs of industry, society driven growthenergy efficiency and performance while alsoand government compensating for slowing shrink•Transistor and bit demand growth due to market or technology CMD 2022 2020-2030780 Page 21 public
Advanced market growing faster Faster node migration andmore backfill, stronger outlookongrowingservers and emergingmarkets More products moving fromMore positive outlook onEmerging applications mature to advanced Nodesthe server marketaccelerating uptake Especially in smartphone and consumerServer (units in millions)AR/VR headsets (units in millions) TSMC June 2022 symposium: to add 50% on mature (including 28 nm)/ specialized capacity by 2025 Sources: TSMC symposium 2022 2035 1830 16 1425 1220 10 15 8 610 4 5 2 00 2013201720212025e201920212023e2025e ActualCM ’21CM ‘22ActualCM ’21CM ‘22 Sources: Gartner Serverforecasts 2Q21 and 3Q22Sources: Gartner Semiconductor forecasts 2Q21 and 3Q22 Page 22 public
Mature market is growing faster, driven by smart grids and automotive Mature grows in all segments New applications emergingCustomers support our view After being stable for years, we nowWith reducing cost, new applications andCustomers such as TSMC confirm mature see proliferation of mature applications,markets are emerging. Smart grids beingapplications are growing, in segments and growing wafer demandone example, where the variable nature ofsuch as smartphone (driven by sensors, renewable energy requires smart grids tocamera, etc) and automotive (driven by kwspm (300 mm equivalent) balance this.electrification). 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 20102015202020252030 PowerOptical sensors Non-optical sensorsMature LogicAnalog Source: ASML analysis using external sourcesSource: Infineon Aug’22: quarterly update-third quarter FY2022Source: TSMC, Anandtech June16, 2022 November 11, 2022 Page 23 public
Significant increase in mask sets or products for ≥ 28 nmLogicnodes DUV growth driversProducts ≥ 28 nm technology in production (300mm) Over 40% increase in products in past few years, meaning more applications Technology nodes require DUV Technology NodesArFi ArF KrF i-line 90-130 nm 65 nm 40 nmproduction in 28 nm(products) sets DUV litho required mask of # 2012201520182021 Source: ASML analysis and external analysts90-130 nm65 nm40 nm28 nm Page 24 public
Drive for energy efficiency requires more silicon in advanced segment Larger die sizes are required to improve both energy efficiency and performance Energy efficiency requires more silicon Customers are balancing performance and power Running chips at lower voltage increases energy efficiencyAfter an era of transistor density optimization, customers are and lowers performance, which can be compensated by largerincreasingly optimizing system scaling and energy efficiency. die sizes. 1.2-1.5x Silicon area for equivalent performance 100%200%300% Source: ASML analysis using external sourcesSource: Apple.com, March 2022 November 11, 2022 Page 25 public
We see a range of demand drivers for wafer capacity growth kwspm/yr Additional wafer Demand bucketDemand drivercapacity requiredVariables CMD 2021 2020-2025505 Market• Advanced market growth across segments45•End market segments growth rates driven growthdriven primarily by server and AR/VR.•Geopolitical instabilities • Mature markets growth driven primarily by industrial and automotive (incl. electrification)180 Technology• Larger die sizes are required to improve both50•Innovation by needs of industry, society driven growthenergy efficiency and performance while alsoand government compensating for slowing shrink•Transistor and bit demand growth due to market or technology CMD 2022 2020-2030780 Geopolitical• Technological sovereignty150•Geopolitical driven self-sufficiency and competitive• Foundry competition•Foundry competition uncertainty driven growth CMD 2022 2020-2030~780-930 November 11, 2022 Page 26 public
Technological sovereignty and foundry competition create additional capacity Resulting in ~10% inefficiency of the total wafer installed capacity by 2030 Capacity (million wafer/year) 300 mm equivalentCost-effective innovations ~10% inefficiency or an additional•Tech sovereignty leading to less efficient use of the installed 18 million wafer capacity by 2030capacity as countries/regions aim to (re)gain fab footprint. •Fab base becomes more spread in ownership and geography and load balancing will become more difficult •Intensified foundry competition could lead to period with overcapacity as players try to capture market share kwspm/yr kwspm/yr Percentage CMD 2021GrowthCAGR 2020-20252020-20302020-2030 NAND+100+1004.9% DRAM+80+804.7% Advanced Logic+125+22012.0% Mature+200+3806.0% Total+505+7806.5% +Technological Sovereignty &-+1500.8% 0Competition 20102015202020252030Total capacity+505+9307.4% Source: ASML analysis, advanced Logic ≤2nm, mature >2nmMatureLogicDRAMNAND Page 27 public
Customers are investing to support these demand drivers Top threesemiconductor manufacturers announced plans to invest >$300 billion in global capacity TexasIrelandIsraelTaiwanKorea $12bn$20bn$10bn$100bn$40bn New MexicoTexasOhioGermanyChinaKorea $3.5bn$17bn$20bn$17bn$11bn$45bn ArizonaJapan $20bn$8bn Oregon $3bn Page 28 public
Megatrends Wafer demand Changes from Investor Day 2021 Capacity expansion Page 29 public
With strong long-term growth, we adjust our capacity to meet demand Flexible growth in a volatile environment to ensure reliable performance Strong Adjust long-term growth capacity over the next 10+ years to meet demand Our industry and the ASMLInvest timely and sustainably ecosystem expect toin additional capacity to plan double in size before 2030to meet demand PrepareBalance for cyclicalitythe interests with the aim of servingof all stakeholders all customer needsShare risks and rewards throughout swingsfairly between customers, Embed flexibility to growsuppliers, employees, fast and adjust in down-shareholders and society cycle page 30 public
Capacity expansion plans and productivity roadmap to support semiconductor industry growth Revised capacity expansion plans DUV capacity growth tox=require the building of new production 600 systems/yearfacilities in 2025-2026Number of unitsProductivityLitho wafer capacity* • Expansion to increase ASML ~2.5x~1.2x~3xproduction space by >65,000m2 compared to 2020• Phased capex approach with incremental ~€0.5bn per year over Low-NA EUV capacity growth to5 years, translating to ~€0.2bn per x= 90 systems/yearyear on average in depreciation costs • Total supply chain expected to invest in 2025-2026Number of unitsProductivityLitho wafer capacity* ~€2bn over next years ~3x~1.7x~5x compared to 2020 High-NA EUV capacity growth to 20 systems/year Number of units growing starting in over 2027-2028 time and≥ 20 *Litho wafer capacity=units x productivity; numbers provided are capacity plans, not shipment plans Page 31 public
Megatrends, wafer demand and capacity plans to support future growth Key Messages Global trends•While the current macro environment creates near-term uncertainties, we see longer- continue to fuelterm wafer demand and capacity showing healthy growth semiconductor•Expanding application space and industry innovation are expected to continue to fuel growthgrowth across semiconductor markets •This translates to semi end market annual growth rate of around 9% and a doubling of semiconductor revenue (2020-2030) This drives an•Strong growth rates across markets, continued innovation, more foundry competition increase in demandand technological sovereignty drive an increased demand at advanced and mature for wafers intonodes, which requires wafer capacity additions of over 780 thousand wafer starts per month per year, or a CAGR of 6.5% (2020-2030) the next decade To meet that•We plan to adjust our capacity to meet future demand, preparing for cyclicality demand, ASML andwhile sharing risks and rewards fairly with all stakeholders its partners are•We plan to increase our capacity to 90 Low-NA EUV and 600 DUV systems adding capacity(2025-2026), while also ramping High-NA EUV capacity to 20 systems (2027-2028) page 32 public
Placeholder video Zeiss (5 min) Page 33 public
Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to expected trends, including trends in end markets and the technology industry and business environment trends, expected lithography and semiconductor industry growth and growth rates and revenue, capital intensity outlook, expected growth in semiconductor end markets, expected growth in wafer demand and capacity and additional wafer capacity requirements, expected investments in wafer capacity and plans to increase capacity, expected growth in lithography spend, opportunity for growth in service and upgrades and expected growth in Installed Base Management sales, expected increase in capacity and plan for ASML and its suppliers to increase capacity and output to meet demand, expected production of systems, updated model for 2025 and 2030, outlook and expected, modelled or potential financial results, including revenue projections and annual revenue opportunity gross margin, R&D costs, SG&A costs, capital expenditure, cash conversion cycle and annualized effective tax rate for 2025 and 2030 and assumptions underlying such expected, modelled or potential amounts, and other assumptions underlying our business and financial models, expected trends in semiconductor end markets and long term growth opportunities, demand and demand drivers, expected growth in the semiconductor industry including demand growth and expected capital spend in the coming years, the impact of technology sovereignty and foundry competition, statements with respect to dividends and share buybacks and dividend policy, including expectation of growing dividends and buybacks and statements with respect to ASML’s new buyback plan, energy generation and consumption trends and the drive toward energy efficiency, increasing technological sovereignty across the world, including specific goals of countries across the world, increasing competition in the foundry business and other non-historical statements. You can generally identify these statements by the use of words like “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “project”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “potential”, “intend”, “continue”, “target”, “future”, “progress”, “goal” and variations of these words or comparable words. These statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections about our business and our future financial results and readers should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements do not guarantee future performance and involve a number of substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand and capacity for our customers’ products, performance of our systems, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and measures taken to contain it on us, our suppliers, the global economy and financial markets, the impact of the Russian military actions in the Ukraine and measures taken in response on the global economy and global financial markets and other factors that may impact ASML’s financial results, including customer demand and ASML’s ability to obtain parts and components for its products and otherwise meet demand, the success of technology advances and the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of and demand for new products, risks relating to execution of technology roadmaps, demand and production capacity and our and our supplier’s ability to increase capacity to meet demand, the impact of inflation and any recession, investments in capacity and lithography spend, our ability to meet the goals and expectations in our business and financial models and whether the assumptions underlying our models prove to be reasonable and accurate, the number and timing of systems ordered, shipped and recognized in revenue, and the risk of order cancellation or push out, supply chain capacity and constraints and logistics and constraints on our ability to produce systems to meet demand, our ability to increase capacity including our infrastructure and workforce, our ability to control costs and maintain and improve gross margin and competitive position, trends in the semiconductor industry, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights and the outcome of intellectual property disputes and litigation, availability of raw materials, critical manufacturing equipment and qualified employees, trade environment, geopolitical risks and impact on our business, import/export and national security regulations and orders and their impact on us including the impact of new U.S. export regulations, changes in exchange and tax rates, available liquidity and liquidity requirements, our ability to refinance our indebtedness, available cash and distributable reserves for, and other factors impacting, dividend payments and share repurchases, results of our share repurchase program and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 and other filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this document. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements after the date of this report or to conform such statements to actual results or revised expectations, except as required by law. Page 34 public
ASML SMALL TALK 2022 INVESTOR DAY VELDHOVEN PAGE 35
EX-99.3
Exhibit 99.3
Business model and capital allocation strategy Roger Dassen Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Investor Day Veldhoven PAGE 1
Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages Investments create Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant value shareholder value Growth in Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity markets on future nodes fuel demand for our products and services Market scenarios We expect substantial growth opportunities in this decade opportunity Based on different market scenarios, we see an opportunity to achieve the following in 2025 and 2030: 2025: annual revenue between approximately €30 billion and €40 billion with gross margin between approximately 54% and 56% 2030: annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with gross margin between approximately 56% and 60% Growing dividends We expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders and buybacks through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks ASML announces a new share buyback program, effective today, and to be executed by December 31, 2025. We intend to repurchase shares up to an amount of €12.0 billion Page 2
Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Page 3
ASML’s technology leadership comes from strategic investments that enable cost-effective innovations for our customers Growth methods Investments Organic growth by investments in R&D and Capex 4.7 Berliner Glas acquisition (€0.3bn) Strategic acquisitions and Carl Zeiss SMT Holding investments in acquisition 24.9% ( interest €1.0bn) 1.5 3.5 Supply chain for technology and capacity (Cymer, Carl HMI acquisition (€2.8bn)3.2 Zeiss SMT, Berliner Glas) 2.90.9 bn 1.0 New business (HMI)€ In Cymer acquisition 2.20.9 (€3.1bn) 1.60.6 1.41.41.43.2 0.4 1.10.40.40.32.5 0.92.2 0.80.22.0 0.7 0.30.21.6 0.1 1.11.11.11.3 0.9 0.5 0.60.6 2010 2011201220132014201520162017*20182019202020212022E** * ASML contribution Zeiss SMT Capex included as of 2017 ** 2022E is the best estimate for the FY2022 figures R&DCapex Page 4
ASML’s EPS has grown at a CAGR of 18% since 2010 driven by revenue growth, improved margins and share buybacks Growth drivers Revenue/Gross margin/EPS 32.0 14.36 • Systems revenue grew at a 12% CAGR since 2010 • Installed Base Management* grew 27.0 8.4953% at a 21% CAGR since 2010 driven 6.106.16 by upgrades and service of growing 50% 22.0 4.9321.1 installed base 49% 18.6 453.46 • Gross margin improved from 43% 3.3.225.7 2.72.74 in 2010 to ≥50%, reflecting the 17.0 2.352.3646%5.0 strength of our DUV and 45%45%45%14.0 44%46% Applications business and progress 43%11.8 12.0 43%10.93.7 in EUV profitability 42%42%9.12.8 • EPS grew at 18% CAGR since 2.7 36.82.715.4 2010 driven by profitability and 7.0 5.75.25.96.13.7 share buyback 4.50.84.71.62.12.210.3 0.6 0.91.38.39.0 6.4 2.0 3.9 4.93.84.04.24.24.6 2010 201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022E (3.0) * Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales Systems (€bn) Installed Base Management (€bn) EPS (€)Gross margin (%) Page 5
ASML created significant shareholder value over the period 2010-2022* ASML outgrows markets indices Total Shareholder Return Total Shareholder Return (TSR) 3,000 annualized compounded : 2,500 ASML (Nasdaq) : 24% Semiconductor index—SOX 18%2,000 Technology index—Nasdaq 14% $ in 1,500 1,000 500 0 2010 2011201220132014 20152016201720182019202020212022 Source: Bloomberg (Total Shareholder Return: index = 2010) Total Shareholder Return (TSR) = shareprice increase + dividend pay-out 2022*: the graph includes data until November 1, 2022 ASML (Nasdaq)NASDAQS&P 500SOXAEX Page 6
Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Page 7
Model scenarios Model assumptions Scenarios End markets Wafer demand Litho spend 20252030 Start with end markets Convert to wafer demand: Translate to worldwideHighHigh High – Low scenarios units, convert to ASML LowLow share Installed Base Estimate growth of our Management Installed Base business Page 8
Semi end markets expected to grow 9% through 2030 All markets contributing; Datacenter, Automotive and Industrial expected to outperform Smartphone ($bn) Personal Computing ($bn) Consumer Electronics ($bn) 21 +6%+3% 12512 121 1 1 5 1 121150 15115 1011+9% 10210011 10 115 105 11 2 1 250 5 15 1 1 1120 21 22 2225 2 222015 1 1 11 20 21 22 22 25 2 22 2015 1 1 11 20 2122 2 2 25 2222 0 Wired & wireless Infrastructure ($bn) Servers, Datacenters & Storage ($bn) Total Semiconductor ($bn) 2Forecast +13% +8%2+61 21 15 5 55111 5100 1CAGR10 2 0 1 11 2 22020-2030+9%+157 15 1 1 1120 21 22 2225 2 222015 1 1 11 20 21 22 22 25 2 22 20 2 Automotive ($bn) Industrial Electronics ($bn) 5 51 5 1 11 02222 +14%+12% +18+405 102101 125 55 0 2105250 51 15 1 1 1120 21 22 2225 2 222015 1 1 11 20 21 22 22 25 2 22 2015 1 1 11 20 2122 2 2 25 2222 0Source: Historical data: Gartner. Outlook: Gartner Q22 Forecast (Sep22, 2022) for years ’22-’2 ; Outlook 20 0: ASML estimate; segment revenue extrapolated using ’20-’2 Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Some deviations from this methodology due to expected growth profile differences across the decade CMD 2021CMD 2022 CMD 2022—extrapolation Page 9
Translating to expected growth of wafer demand in all segments Higher growth for advanced Logic, mature markets and Technological sovereignty and foundry competition compared to CMD 2021 Capacity (million wafer/year) 300 mm equivalent Cost-effective innovations ~10% inefficiency or an additional •Tech sovereignty leading to less efficient use of the installed 18 million wafer capacity by 2030 200 capacity as countries/regions aim to (re)gain fab footprint. •Fab base becomes more spread in ownership and geography and load balancing will become more difficult •Intensified foundry competition could lead to period with 150 overcapacity as players try to capture market share kwspm/yr kwspm/yr Percentage CMD 2021GrowthCAGR 2020-20252020-20302020-2030 100 NAND+100+1004.9% DRAM+80+804.7% Advanced Logic+125+22012.0% Mature+200+3806.0% Total+505+7806.5% +Technological Sovereignty &-+1500.8% 0 Competition 2010 2015 202020252030Total capacity+505+9307.4% Source: ASML analysis, advanced Logic ≤2 nm, mature >2 nmMatureLogicDRAMNAND Page 10
Lithography spend increasing on future nodes Advanced Logic (≤ 28 nm) DRAMNAND 45 kwspm* 100 kwspm 120 kwspm 100% 100%100% 80% 80%80% Wavelength 60% 60%60% by % 40% 40%40% Spend 20% 20%20% 0% 0%0% 7 nm 5 nm 3 nm 2 nm1.x nm1 nm1Z1A1B1C0A0B0C92L128L176L2xxL3xxL4xxL5xxL Starts Wafer Spend/k y Lithograph ~30% NoN** >20% NoN >10% NoN 7 nm 5 nm 3 nm 2 nm1.x nm1 nm1Z1A1B1C0A0B0C92L128L176L 2xxL3xxL4xxL5xxL *kwspm: 1,000 wafer starts per month; ** NoN: Node on Node; High-NAEUVArFi Dry Page 11
Mature markets drive DUV spend Power Mature Logic/Analog Sensors 45K wafers/month Non-OpticalOptical 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 250 nm 130 nm 45 nm250 nm40 nm ArFi ArF KrF i-line Page 12
Installed Base Management*: growing installed base provides opportunity for growth in service and upgrades Growth drivers: Installed Base Management: services and upgrades • Growing installed base 14 population • Service: move to value-based bn) 12 € services ( • Upgrades: design for revenue 10~10% CAGR extendibility, enabling performance upgrades in ~10% CAGR the field Management 8CAGRCAGR ase 11%13% B Installed 6 ~15% CAGR ~12% CAGR 4 2 0 2020CMD’212025CMD’212030 20252030 * Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales midpoint Page 14
Model assumptions 2025 & 2030 Market share assumptions: EUV 100%, ArFi 90%, Dry 65% Advanced Logic (≤ 28 nm) DRAMNAND General • EUV High-NA high volume from 2025/2026•EUV High-NA from 2026•Storage class memory remains a niche 2-year cadence•<2-year cadence•3D NAND: stack of stacks & CMOS bonded array. •<2-year cadence Market • Reference 16/14 nm, 350 kwspm* Bit growth:Bit growth: Low—High • Node on node (percent change):•Low:15%•Low:25% Low: -5%•High:25%•High:35% High: 8% EUV • 20-30 EUV exposures (including High-NA)•70-80% of wafer capacity converted First EUV High-NA node ~ 4-9 exposuresto nodes with up to 9 exposures of EUV (including High-NA) ** •First High-NA node ~1-2 exposures * kwspm: 1000 wafer starts per month ** Assuming EUV export license restrictions apply Page 15
Our updated model for 2025 goes beyond our high-market scenario from CMD 2021 Market System units Total sales opportunity (in €bn) CMD 2021 CMD 2022 CMD 2022CMD 2021CMD 2022CMD 2022 High Units ASML Units ASMLUnits ASMLSalesSales Sales 2025 2025 2030202520252030 EUV High-NA 0.55 5 530Systems (Litho and M&I*) 233247 EUV Low-NA 0.33 70 8080 ArFi (immersion) 78 105115Installed Base Management**7813 Dry 189 385425 Total 342 575650Total304060 CMD 2021 CMD 2022 CMD 2022CMD 2021CMD 2022CMD 2022 Low Units ASML Units ASMLUnits ASMLSalesSales Sales 2025 2025 2030202520252030 EUV High-NA 0.55 5 515Systems (Litho and M&I*) 182333 EUV Low-NA 0.33 48 6565 ArFi (immersion) 63 7585Installed Base Management**6711 Dry 124 180250 Total 240 325415Total243044 *M&I : Metrology & Inspection ** Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales Page 16
Higher sales across all product portfolio translates to increase in 2025 and 2030 modeled scenario Growth drivers ASML 2025—2030 sales build up (mid point of range) CMD CMD 2022 CMD 2022 Increase in EUV and 2021 Sales development Sales development Non EUV(*)is driven by 2025 2025 2030 increase in units for 2025 and increase in units/ASP for 2030 4 52 3 10 Growing Installed Base Management provides higher 3 1 35 4 service and field 27 upgrade business bn) CAGR CMD CMD ( € 2021 2022 sales 2020 – 2025 14% 20% 2020 – 2030 11% 14% Modeled 2025 – 2030 8% 8% 2025 EUV Non EUV* IBM** 2025 EUV Non EUV* IBM** 2030 * Non EUV = DUV + Metrology & Inspection ** IBM = Installed Base Management, equals our net service and field option sales Page 19
And increasing litho as a percentage of semi market Drivers Litho/Semi industry sales ratio • Semi industry sales growing faster this decade than in previous decades 6% • Higher semi market growth requires increased upfront Capex 5% investments to enable future semi growth 4% • Equipment portion within overall Capex is increasing, with market opportunity to further increase litho semi 3% • Technological sovereignty trend of leads to lower utilization percentage 2% as Litho 1% 0% 2000 200520102015202020252030 Source: ASML analysis using WSTS.org, SEMI.org, VLSI Research/TechInsights, Gartner External sourcesASML CMD 2022 scenarios (High-Low range) Page 20
ASML updated financial model CMD 2021CMD 2022CMD 2022 Actuals Low—High marketLow—High marketLow—High market 2021 202520252030 Total sales 18.6€bn ~24 – 30€bn~30 –40€bn~44 –60€bn Installed Base Management* 5.0€bn~6 –€bn ~7 –€bn ~11 –1€bn System sales 1 . €bn ~18 – 2€bn ~23 –2€bn~33 –€bn Gross margin 52.7%~54 – 56%~54% –56%~56% –60% R&D 2.5€bn (1 %)~3.4 –. €bn ~4.3 –.€bn ~6.0 –.€bn SG&A 0. €bn ( %)~1.0€bn~1.€bn ~1.€bn Capex 0. €bn (5%) ~1.0€bn~1.5€bn~1.5€bn Cash Conversion Cycle 219 days <200 days<200 days<200 days Effective Tax Rate 15%~16%~16.5%**~16.5%** * Installed Base Management equals our net service and field option sales ** Estimated Effective Tax Rate is based on 2022 tax legislation, and currently expected changes Page 22
Our flexible operating model can deal with the industry volatility and uncertainties Flexible workforce Outsourced R&D Systems Cost of Goods (COG) at Employees R&D spend, B€ Standard, composition Additional flexibility through the Majority of systems COG is hour bank and other measures externally sourced 7% 27% 82% 93% 73% 18% 2021 2021 2021 Flexworkers D&E Flex labor and farm-out Materials Own personnel D&E Fix labor and other costs Labor Page 23
Historical shareholder value creation Continuing growth Continued shareholder value creation Page 24
ASML’s capital return policy Maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet Focused investment in our business through R&D, Capex Excess cash distribution •Combination of growing dividends and share buybacks 4.7•A new share buyback program, effective today, to be executed by Berliner Glas acquisition ecember 1, 2025. Intention to repurchase shares up to €12.0 billion, (€0. bn) of which we expect a total of up to 2 million shares to cover employee Carl Zeiss SMT Holdingshare plans. Intention to cancel the remainder of the shares30.8 acquisition 24.9% interest1.5repurchased. (€1.0bn)3.5 3.2 HMI acquisition23.99.3 (€2. bn) 2.90.9 1.0 bn bn 6.7 € 2.20.9€ In In Cymer acquisition (€ .1bn) 1.60.614.0 1.41.41.43.211.7 0.410.05.4 1.10.40.40.32.58.24.321.5 0.9 0.8 0.22.02.26.47.23.017.2 0.7 5.52.4 0.3 1.64.04.51.9 0.2 1.31.4 0.1 0.91.11.11.12.43.30.60.91.17.07.48.6 0.5 0.6 0.60.30.54.44.95.35.8 2.12.83.43.7 2010 2011 20122013201420152016 2017*2018201920202021 2022E**up to201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 2010YTD*** Annual R&DAnnual CapexCumulative share buybackCumulative dividend *ASML contribution for Zeiss SMT capex included as of 2017 ** 2022E is the best estimate for the FY2022 figures *** 2022YTD is up to and including 18 October 2022 for share buyback and including 14 November 2022 interim dividend Page 25
Business model and capital allocation strategy Key messages Investments create Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant value shareholder value Growth in Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity markets on future nodes fuel demand for our products and services Market scenarios We expect substantial growth opportunities in this decade opportunity Based on different market scenarios, we see an opportunity to achieve the following in 2025 and 2030: 2025: annual revenue between approximately €30 billion and €40 billion with gross margin between approximately 54% and 56% 2030: annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with gross margin between approximately 56% and 60% Growing dividends We expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders and buybacks through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks ASML announces a new share buyback program, effective today, and to be executed by December 31, 2025. We intend to repurchase shares up to an amount of €12.0 billion Page 26
Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to expected trends, including trends in end markets and the technology industry and business environment trends, expected lithography and semiconductor industry growth and growth rates and revenue, capital intensity outlook, expected growth in semiconductor end markets, expected growth in wafer demand and capacity and additional wafer capacity requirements, expected investments in wafer capacity and plans to increase capacity, expected growth in lithography spend, opportunity for growth in service and upgrades and expected growth in Installed Base Management sales, expected increase in capacity and plan for ASML and its suppliers to increase capacity and output to meet demand, expected production of systems, updated model for 2025 and 2030, outlook and expected, modelled or potential financial results, including revenue projections and annual revenue opportunity gross margin, R&D costs, SG&A costs, capital expenditure, cash conversion cycle and annualized effective tax rate for 2025 and 2030 and assumptions underlying such expected, modelled or potential amounts, and other assumptions underlying our business and financial models, expected trends in semiconductor end markets and long term growth opportunities, demand and demand drivers, expected growth in the semiconductor industry including demand growth and expected capital spend in the coming years, the impact of technology sovereignty and foundry competition, statements with respect to dividends and share buybacks and dividend policy, including expectation of growing dividends and buybacks and statements with respect to ASML’s new buyback plan, energy generation and consumption trends and the drive toward energy efficiency, increasing technological sovereignty across the world, including specific goals of countries across the world, increasing competition in the foundry business and other non-historical statements. You can generally identify these statements by the use of words like “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “project”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “potential”, “intend”, “continue”, “target”, “future”, “progress”, “goal” and variations of these words or comparable words. These statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections about our business and our future financial results and readers should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements do not guarantee future performance and involve a number of substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand and capacity for our customers’ products, performance of our systems, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and measures taken to contain it on us, our suppliers, the global economy and financial markets, the impact of the Russian military actions in the Ukraine and measures taken in response on the global economy and global financial markets and other factors that may impact ASML’s financial results, including customer demand and ASML’s ability to obtain parts and components for its products and otherwise meet demand, the success of technology advances and the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of and demand for new products, risks relating to execution of technology roadmaps, demand and production capacity and our and our supplier’s ability to increase capacity to meet demand, the impact of inflation and any recession, investments in capacity and lithography spend, our ability to meet the goals and expectations in our business and financial models and whether the assumptions underlying our models prove to be reasonable and accurate, the number and timing of systems ordered, shipped and recognized in revenue, and the risk of order cancellation or push out, supply chain capacity and constraints and logistics and constraints on our ability to produce systems to meet demand, our ability to increase capacity including our infrastructure and workforce, our ability to control costs and maintain and improve gross margin and competitive position, trends in the semiconductor industry, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights and the outcome of intellectual property disputes and litigation, availability of raw materials, critical manufacturing equipment and qualified employees, trade environment, geopolitical risks and impact on our business, import/export and national security regulations and orders and their impact on us including the impact of new U.S. export regulations, changes in exchange and tax rates, available liquidity and liquidity requirements, our ability to refinance our indebtedness, available cash and distributable reserves for, and other factors impacting, dividend payments and share repurchases, results of our share repurchase program and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 and other filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this document. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements after the date of this report or to conform such statements to actual results or revised expectations, except as required by law. Page 27
ASML SMALL TALK 2022 INVESTOR DAY VELDHOVEN
EX-99.4
Exhibit 99.4
Closing remarks Peter Wennink President & Chief Executive Officer Investor Day Veldhoven ASML SMALL TALK 2022 PAGE 1 public
Investor Day summary and key messages (1/2) Global trends • While the current macro environment creates near-term uncertainties, we see longer- continue to fuel term wafer demand and capacity showing healthy growth semiconductor • Expanding application space and industry innovation are expected to continue to fuel growth growth across semiconductor markets This translates to semi end market annual growth rate of around 9% and a doubling of semiconductor revenue (2020-2030) This drives an • Strong growth rates across markets, continued innovation, more foundry competition increase in demand and technological sovereignty drive an increased demand at advanced and mature for wafers into nodes, which requires wafer capacity additions of over 780 thousand wafer starts per month per year, or a CAGR of 6.5% (2020-2030) the next decade To meet that • We plan to adjust our capacity to meet future demand, preparing for cyclicality demand, ASML and while sharing risks and rewards fairly with all stakeholders its partners are • We plan to increase our capacity to 90 Low-NA EUV and 600 DUV systems adding capacity (2025-2026), while also ramping High-NA EUV capacity to 20 systems (2027-2028) PAGE 2 public
Investor Day summary and key messages (2/2) Investments create Our continued investments in technology leadership have created significant value shareholder value Growth in Growth in semiconductor end markets and increasing lithography intensity markets on future nodes fuel demand for our products and services Market scenarios We expect substantial growth opportunities in this decade opportunity Based on different market scenarios, we see an opportunity to achieve the following in 2025 and 2030: • 2025: annual revenue between approximately €30 billion and €40 billion with gross margin between approximately 54% and 56% • 2030: annual revenue between approximately €44 billion and €60 billion with gross margin between approximately 56% and 60% Growing dividends We expect to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders and buybacks through a combination of growing dividends and share buybacks ASML announces a new share buyback program, effective today, and to be executed by December 31, 2025. We intend to repurchase shares up to an amount of €12.0 billion PAGE 3 public
Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to expected trends, including trends in end markets and the technology industry and business environment trends, expected lithography and semiconductor industry growth and growth rates and revenue, capital intensity outlook, expected growth in semiconductor end markets, expected growth in wafer demand and capacity and additional wafer capacity requirements, expected investments in wafer capacity and plans to increase capacity, expected growth in lithography spend, opportunity for growth in service and upgrades and expected growth in Installed Base Management sales, expected increase in capacity and plan for ASML and its suppliers to increase capacity and output to meet demand, expected production of systems, updated model for 2025 and 2030, outlook and expected, modelled or potential financial results, including revenue projections and annual revenue opportunity gross margin, R&D costs, SG&A costs, capital expenditure, cash conversion cycle and annualized effective tax rate for 2025 and 2030 and assumptions underlying such expected, modelled or potential amounts, and other assumptions underlying our business and financial models, expected trends in semiconductor end markets and long term growth opportunities, demand and demand drivers, expected growth in the semiconductor industry including demand growth and expected capital spend in the coming years, the impact of technology sovereignty and foundry competition, statements with respect to dividends and share buybacks and dividend policy, including expectation of growing dividends and buybacks and statements with respect to ASML’s new buyback plan, energy generation and consumption trends and the drive toward energy efficiency, increasing technological sovereignty across the world, including specific goals of countries across the world, increasing competition in the foundry business and other non-historical statements. You can generally identify these statements by the use of words like “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “project”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “potential”, “intend”, “continue”, “target”, “future”, “progress”, “goal” and variations of these words or comparable words. These statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections about our business and our future financial results and readers should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements do not guarantee future performance and involve a number of substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand and capacity for our customers’ products, performance of our systems, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and measures taken to contain it on us, our suppliers, the global economy and financial markets, the impact of the Russian military actions in the Ukraine and measures taken in response on the global economy and global financial markets and other factors that may impact ASML’s financial results, including customer demand and ASML’s ability to obtain parts and components for its products and otherwise meet demand, the success of technology advances and the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of and demand for new products, risks relating to execution of technology roadmaps, demand and production capacity and our and our supplier’s ability to increase capacity to meet demand, the impact of inflation and any recession, investments in capacity and lithography spend, our ability to meet the goals and expectations in our business and financial models and whether the assumptions underlying our models prove to be reasonable and accurate, the number and timing of systems ordered, shipped and recognized in revenue, and the risk of order cancellation or push out, supply chain capacity and constraints and logistics and constraints on our ability to produce systems to meet demand, our ability to increase capacity including our infrastructure and workforce, our ability to control costs and maintain and improve gross margin and competitive position, trends in the semiconductor industry, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights and the outcome of intellectual property disputes and litigation, availability of raw materials, critical manufacturing equipment and qualified employees, trade environment, geopolitical risks and impact on our business, import/export and national security regulations and orders and their impact on us including the impact of new U.S. export regulations, changes in exchange and tax rates, available liquidity and liquidity requirements, our ability to refinance our indebtedness, available cash and distributable reserves for, and other factors impacting, dividend payments and share repurchases, results of our share repurchase program and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 and other filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this document. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements after the date of this report or to conform such statements to actual results or revised expectations, except as required by law. PAGE 4 public
ASML SMALL TALK 2022 Investor Day Veldhoven Page5 public
EX-99.5
Exhibit 99.5
Abbreviations Investor Day Veldhoven ASML SMALL TALK 2022 PAGE 1 public
Investor Day 2022 – Abbreviations Abbreviation Meaning AbbreviationMeaning 5G Fifth Generation network CMDCapital Markets Day ADAS Advanced Driver Assistance Systems CMOSComplementary metal oxide semiconductor Adv Logic ≤28 nm nodes DRAMDynamic Random Access Memory AEX Amsterdam Exchange indeX Drydry lithography technology AI Artificial Intelligence DUVDeep Ultraviolet AR Augmented Reality EBITEarnings Before Interest and Taxes ArF Argon Fluoride DUV system EPSEarnings per share ArFi Argon Fluoride Immersion DUV system EUVExtreme Ultraviolet ASP Average Selling Price EVElectronic Vehicle Bn billion FabFabrication plant CAGR Compound annual growth rate FinFET FIN Field Effect Transistor capex Capital Expenditure FYFull Year CFET Complementary Field Effect Transistor GAAGate All Around PAGE 2 public
Investor Day 2022 – Abbreviations Abbreviation Meaning AbbreviationMeaning Gb Gigabyte maxmaximum GM Gross Margin MbMegabyte High-NA 0.55 NA EUV technology minminimum HMI Hermes Microvision Inc. MWMega Watt IBM Installed Base Management NANumerical Aperture ICT Information & Communication Technology NANDNot AND—non volatile memory Imec Interuniversitair Micro-Elektronica Centrum nmnanometer KrF Krypton Fluoride DUV system NoN Node-on-node kwspm x1000 wafer starts per month PCPersonal Computer Litho Lithography R&DResearch & Development Low-NA 0.33 NA EUV technology S&P 500Standard & Poor’s 500 index M&I Metrology & Inspection SBBShare Buyback Mature Logic >28 nm nodes semiSemiconductor PAGE 3 public
Investor Day 2022 – Abbreviations Abbreviation Meaning SG&A Selling, General and Administrative SMT Semiconductor Manufacturing Technology SOX PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index tn trillion TSR Total Shareholder Return VR Virtual Reality WW Worldwide xEV All kinds of Electric Vehicles XR eXtended Reality PAGE 4 public
Forward Looking Statements This document and related discussions contain statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements with respect to expected trends, including trends in end markets and the technology industry and business environment trends, expected lithography and semiconductor industry growth and growth rates and revenue, capital intensity outlook, expected growth in semiconductor end markets, expected growth in wafer demand and capacity and additional wafer capacity requirements, expected investments in wafer capacity and plans to increase capacity, expected growth in lithography spend, opportunity for growth in service and upgrades and expected growth in Installed Base Management sales, expected increase in capacity and plan for ASML and its suppliers to increase capacity and output to meet demand, expected production of systems, updated model for 2025 and 2030, outlook and expected, modelled or potential financial results, including revenue projections and annual revenue opportunity gross margin, R&D costs, SG&A costs, capital expenditure, cash conversion cycle and annualized effective tax rate for 2025 and 2030 and assumptions underlying such expected, modelled or potential amounts, and other assumptions underlying our business and financial models, expected trends in semiconductor end markets and long term growth opportunities, demand and demand drivers, expected growth in the semiconductor industry including demand growth and expected capital spend in the coming years, the impact of technology sovereignty and foundry competition, statements with respect to dividends and share buybacks and dividend policy, including expectation of growing dividends and buybacks and statements with respect to ASML’s new buyback plan, energy generation and consumption trends and the drive toward energy efficiency, increasing technological sovereignty across the world, including specific goals of countries across the world, increasing competition in the foundry business and other non-historical statements. You can generally identify these statements by the use of words like “may”, “will”, “could”, “should”, “project”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “plan”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “potential”, “intend”, “continue”, “target”, “future”, “progress”, “goal” and variations of these words or comparable words. These statements are not historical facts, but rather are based on current expectations, estimates, assumptions and projections about our business and our future financial results and readers should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements do not guarantee future performance and involve a number of substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, economic conditions, product demand and semiconductor equipment industry capacity, worldwide demand and manufacturing capacity utilization for semiconductors, the impact of general economic conditions on consumer confidence and demand and capacity for our customers’ products, performance of our systems, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and measures taken to contain it on us, our suppliers, the global economy and financial markets, the impact of the Russian military actions in the Ukraine and measures taken in response on the global economy and global financial markets and other factors that may impact ASML’s financial results, including customer demand and ASML’s ability to obtain parts and components for its products and otherwise meet demand, the success of technology advances and the pace of new product development and customer acceptance of and demand for new products, risks relating to execution of technology roadmaps, demand and production capacity and our and our supplier’s ability to increase capacity to meet demand, the impact of inflation and any recession, investments in capacity and lithography spend, our ability to meet the goals and expectations in our business and financial models and whether the assumptions underlying our models prove to be reasonable and accurate, the number and timing of systems ordered, shipped and recognized in revenue, and the risk of order cancellation or push out, supply chain capacity and constraints and logistics and constraints on our ability to produce systems to meet demand, our ability to increase capacity including our infrastructure and workforce, our ability to control costs and maintain and improve gross margin and competitive position, trends in the semiconductor industry, our ability to enforce patents and protect intellectual property rights and the outcome of intellectual property disputes and litigation, availability of raw materials, critical manufacturing equipment and qualified employees, trade environment, geopolitical risks and impact on our business, import/export and national security regulations and orders and their impact on us including the impact of new U.S. export regulations, changes in exchange and tax rates, available liquidity and liquidity requirements, our ability to refinance our indebtedness, available cash and distributable reserves for, and other factors impacting, dividend payments and share repurchases, results of our share repurchase program and other risks indicated in the risk factors included in ASML’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2021 and other filings with and submissions to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this document. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements after the date of this report or to conform such statements to actual results or revised expectations, except as required by law. PAGE 5 public
ASML SMALL TALK 2022 INVESTOR DAY VELDHOVEN Page 6 public