Earnings Call Transcript - ASPS Q3 2022

Operator, Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Altisource Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer. Go ahead, Michelle.

Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, operator. We first want to remind you that the earnings release, Form 10-Q and quarterly slides are available on our website at www.altisource.com. These provide additional information investors may find useful. Our remarks today include forward-looking statements, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. In addition to the usual uncertainty associated with forward-looking statements, the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and current economic environment makes it extremely difficult to predict the future state of the economy and its potential impact on Altisource. Please review the forward-looking statements section in the company's earnings release and quarterly slides, as well as the risk factors contained in our 2021 Form 10-K, which describe factors that may lead to different results. We undertake no obligation to update these statements, financial scenarios and projections previously provided or provided therein as a result of changes in circumstances, new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. In our earnings release and quarterly slides, you will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the appendix to the quarterly slides. Joining me for today's call is Bill Shepro, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Bill.

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Michelle. Good morning, and thank you for joining today's call. We will begin with Slide 4. I am encouraged by our third quarter results and performance. During the quarter, we focused on improving segment margins, growing sales wins and reducing costs. Our Servicer and Real Estate segment continues to benefit from the restart of the default business and operational efficiencies with 45% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth on 14% service revenue growth. Our Origination segment year-over-year revenue decline was modestly better than the market-wide decline in origination volume. Despite the difficult origination market and our revenue decline, we reduced our Origination segment's adjusted EBITDA loss compared to the second quarter and had strong sales wins that we estimate represent $10 million of annualized revenue on a stabilized basis. In Corporate, our costs declined by $5.9 million or 25% over the third quarter of 2021 from the sale of the Pointillist business, cost savings initiatives and the assignment of our sales and marketing employees to the business segments. We ended the quarter with $63.8 million in cash. In the third quarter, our cash burn declined by $2.7 million or 28% compared to the second quarter. We believe our cash burn will further decline in the fourth quarter and continue to anticipate ending the year with between $60 million and $65 million of cash with the estimate fluctuating up or down based on working capital and other factors. Our estimate includes the anticipated fourth quarter refund of approximately $5 million in U.S. taxes and receipt of $3.5 million in escrow funds from the Pointillist sale, assuming no indemnification claims. Turning to Slide 5 and our Servicer and Real Estate segment. Compared to the third quarter of 2021, we grew service revenue and adjusted EBITDA and improved our gross profit and adjusted EBITDA margins. Our revenue growth reflects the beginning of the recovery of the default market, following the September 2021 restart of foreclosures on pre-pandemic delinquencies and the December 31 expiration of most of the remaining pandemic-related borrower relief measures. Adjusted EBITDA and margin improvements reflect our greater scale, products mix and cost savings initiatives. While the performance of our default business is improving, we believe that we are only in the first phase of a multi-phase recovery for our default-related revenue. In addition to sales and marketing wins, which I will cover shortly, Altisource's default business revenue growth is primarily driven by three market factors. First, the number of foreclosure starts. Second, the timing from foreclosure starts to foreclosure auctions and REO sales. Third, the percentage of foreclosure starts that ultimately convert to foreclosure auctions. Beginning with foreclosure starts on Slide 6. For the first nine months of 2022, foreclosure starts were 386% higher than the same period in 2021. This is primarily driving the growth of our pre-pandemic foreclosure solutions, including title, valuation, trustee and field services. Despite the 2022 increase in foreclosure starts, they are still 45% below the same period in 2019. We believe this is due to the timing for servicers to initiate foreclosures on delinquent loans, post the expiration of the moratoriums and represents a significant opportunity for revenue growth as the market returns to pre-pandemic foreclosure start levels. The second market factor driving Altisource's default-related revenue growth is the timing from foreclosure start to foreclosure auction and REO sale. We estimate that in today's environment, it typically takes on average 2 years to convert foreclosure starts to foreclosure sales and another 6 months to market and sell the REO. Due to this timing, we anticipate that our later-stage foreclosure auction and REO asset management services won't fully benefit from the early 2022 higher foreclosure starts until late 2023 or early 2024. Turning to Slide 7 and the third market factor, the conversion rate of foreclosure inventory to foreclosure sales. For the first nine months of 2022, foreclosure sales were 45% higher than the same period in 2021 but significantly lower than the 386% growth in foreclosure starts. We believe foreclosure sales have grown at the same rate as foreclosure starts for two reasons. First, following the 2022 restart of the default market, a greater percentage of loans in foreclosure are from 2022 foreclosure starts, and the weighted average age of foreclosures haven't had sufficient time to reach historical norms. Second, over the past couple of years, we believe distressed homeowners have been able to sell their home or modify or refinance their loan before the foreclosure sale due to strong home price appreciation from the historically low interest rate environment. Recently, interest rates have more than doubled to approximately 7%, reducing affordability to levels not seen since October 1985. Because affordability is directly correlated to home values, we share the view of many industry experts that home values are going to decline, leaving distressed homeowners with fewer options. As newer foreclosure seasons and rising interest rates become priced into home values, we believe foreclosure sale conversion rates should return to 2019 levels or higher. We anticipate this will drive further growth for our solutions that support foreclosure auctions and REO asset management, including valuation, title, field services and our higher-margin brokerage and auction business. In addition to the three market factors I just discussed, should delinquency rates rise above pre-pandemic levels, which is looking more likely in this economic environment, we would expect foreclosure starts and sales to exceed 2019 pre-pandemic levels and support further growth for our Servicer and Real Estate segment. We estimate for every 1% increase in 30-day delinquency rates, the addressable market for our default services would increase by about $700 million. While it's difficult to predict the manner and timing of the recovery of the default market, the slide illustrates what we believe Altisource's run rate revenue and adjusted EBITDA could be after the default market returns to the pre-pandemic environment. Slide 16 summarizes the assumptions we used in arriving at the run rate scenario. To isolate the impact from the default market returning to normal, we held revenue from the Origination segment for the last 12 months constant and applied 2019 origination adjusted EBITDA margins to this revenue. Under this scenario, we estimate generating $42 million of adjusted EBITDA on $253 million of service revenue. Of course, if delinquency rates rise above pre-pandemic levels, we would anticipate our revenue and earnings would be higher. In addition to growth from the recovery of the default, we are focused on growing our Servicer and Real Estate segment sales pipeline and are making good progress. During the third quarter, we won and are in various stages of onboarding new business with an estimated $4 million of annualized revenue on a stabilized basis. In addition, the midpoint of our average weighted sales pipeline is currently $36 million on an annualized and stabilized basis. Turning to Slide 9 and our Origination segment. The origination market continues to face challenges with the latest MBA report estimating that third quarter origination volume declined by 29% compared to the second quarter, and full-year origination volume is forecasted to decline by 49% compared to last year. Compared to the second quarter, our Origination segment's revenue decline outperformed the market. This reflects significantly better than market performance from the Lenders One business as we gained traction with our solutions that are designed to help members save money. This was partially offset by performance that was largely in line with the market for most of our other origination businesses. With the decline in origination volume and margins, originators have turned their attention to reducing costs and are increasingly looking to purchase Lenders One solutions that help them do so. As you can see on the left-hand side of the slide, during the quarter, we won an estimated annualized $10 million in new business on a stabilized basis and ended the quarter with an annualized average weighted sales pipeline of $23 million at the midpoint. Importantly, we are making progress translating these sales wins to revenue. As you can see on the slide, we have won an estimated $20 million in new business on a stabilized basis in 2022 and have recognized $1.3 million of revenue related to these wins. As we onboard and scale these wins, we believe there's significant additional revenue to be realized. While focusing on sales growth, we are also addressing our cost structure to improve the financial results of the origination businesses most impacted by lower origination volumes. As a result, we reduced the Origination segment's adjusted EBITDA loss by $600,000 or 25% compared to the second quarter despite the decline in service revenue as we benefit from our cost reduction initiatives. We believe with revenue growth and cost discipline, earnings from our Origination segment should continue to improve. Finally, we continue to maintain cost discipline in our Corporate segment with costs down by $5.9 million or 25% over the third quarter of 2021 from the sale of the Pointillist business, cost savings initiatives and the assignment of sales and marketing employees to the business segments. We are encouraged with our third quarter results and believe we are well positioned for continued adjusted EBITDA improvement. In our Service and Real Estate business, we should benefit from the market tailwinds and strong sales pipeline and efficiency initiatives. In our Origination business, we believe we are building an exciting and innovative business that we anticipate will benefit from sales wins and cost savings initiatives. The improving performance of our segments, combined with cost discipline in corporate, should help us return to a growth company and create substantial value for our stakeholders. I'll now open up the call for questions.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Mike Grondahl with Northland Securities.

Mike Grondahl, Analyst

Couple of questions. First one, Bill, when you were talking about the foreclosure sales conversion rate, did you say what the level of rate was today and what it was during kind of pre-pandemic normal levels? Could you let us know those?

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Yes. Michelle, can you refer Mike to the slide?

Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Slide 7, Mike.

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And maybe you can provide some commentary right at what it was and what it is.

Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer

If you examine the graph on the left side of Slide 7, the green line shows the percentage of foreclosure sales relative to the starting foreclosure inventory each quarter. In 2018 and 2019, this percentage was around 14% to 15% per quarter. Currently, it has decreased to approximately 6% to 7%.

Mike Grondahl, Analyst

Got it. That's just the definition of foreclosure sales as a percentage of beginning inventory. Okay.

Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So beginning inventory, the number of homes that are in foreclosure at the beginning of the quarter versus the number of sales during the quarter.

Mike Grondahl, Analyst

Got it. So you're running at about half the level of...

Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer

This is the total market, yes.

Mike Grondahl, Analyst

Got it. Total market. Okay. And then Bill, in the press release, it talks about servicer and real estate having wins of annual revenue of $30 million to $40 million; in originations, sort of $21 million to $23 million. And I think you mentioned you got $1.3 million of that on the Origination side. How long does it take to get this annual revenue in both of these categories?

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

So that's a great question, Mike. And something we're very focused on is converting the wins to revenue. So on the Servicer side, don't hold me to exact numbers. We had about $20 million worth of wins this year but have only generated about $1.5 million of revenue from those wins this year. And I can tell you, we're very actively onboarding, and a lot of these wins are in Lenders One. We're very actively onboarding these customers. I think we have seven or eight client onboardings in the month of October alone. And so as we onboard those customers and then ramp those products across those customers' loan officers, we would expect to, over time, go from the $1.5 million run rate to the $20 million on the Origination side. And then on the Servicer side, same thing. We've won some deals. I think the dollar amount of the wins is smaller than on the origination side, but it takes time from when you win a transaction to when you onboard the clients. So for example, a month or two ago, we just onboarded a household name bank in our Field Services business. So it will take time before that client fully ramps to the revenue we expect.

Mike Grondahl, Analyst

Fair, fair. Next, there's been a press release or two about Lenders One, I think, getting in a couple of Walmarts. I don't know. Can you just describe that opportunity? And how that affects Altisource?

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We have been in discussions with Walmart for the past couple of years about potential ways to offer education to their customers, aiming to improve customer retention and create opportunities for our Lenders One members to increase their loan origination in this challenging market. We have established a relationship where we lease space from Walmart, which we subsequently sublease to our Lenders One members. Currently, we are in a pilot program, but we anticipate earning revenue from the services associated with the lease and the sublease arrangements. So far, we have opened three stores, and we are optimistic about this initiative. Our members are enthusiastic about the possibility of providing loans to this customer base and expanding this aspect of their business. We believe that, over time, this program could become significant for our Lenders One members and generate substantial income for Altisource.

Mike Grondahl, Analyst

Got it. And then just lastly, in the beginning of your comments, you talked about two years foreclosure starts become sales and then maybe 6-month marketing and actual sale. And then did I hear you right that you're hoping that the inflection in service revenue is sort of second half '23, first half '24? Is that sort of current thinking?

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So for all those foreclosure starts that have increased, I think about the first half of this year, at least compared to 2021. We’re starting to generate the early pre-foreclosure services on those foreclosure starts. As those foreclosures work through the foreclosure process over roughly a couple of years, some states, it may be as short as 6 or 9 months. Other states, it could take a couple of years to complete the foreclosure process. But for those loans that get all the way to the end and then convert to REO, it then takes another 6 months to sell the REO. And so some of our highest-margin businesses take place at the very end of that process. So we won’t benefit from the substantial increase in foreclosure starts, in our highest-margin businesses until late 2023. We’re seeing some benefits, a modest benefit now.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Raj Sharma with B. Riley.

Raj Sharma, Analyst

First sort of inquiry is on the cost savings, I know that there have been plenty of cost savings in different levels. And I just wanted to understand when we look at 2019 cost levels, and I know that there have been changes since then, apples-to-apples, how should we look at the cost structure and the amount of savings from the 2019 level to now?

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think, Raj, we should reframe the question a bit. What we're seeing now is a strong focus on improving the margins at our business unit level to match or exceed those of 2019, not necessarily across every service but across most of them. We're also working on keeping corporate costs significantly lower than they were in 2019. While I wouldn't say they're flat, they are relatively stable, which we view as a solid outcome in a high inflation environment. We've made substantial reductions in corporate costs over the past few years. In our business unit, we've implemented numerous cost-saving measures, but we still have more work to do in the fourth quarter. You'll see in our Servicer and Real Estate business that we're focused on improving our business unit margins and EBITDA even if revenue stays flat. Of course, this heavily relies on revenue mix, but assuming all else is equal. On the Origination side, we made significant changes during the third quarter, but since those were implemented late, we didn't fully benefit in the fourth quarter. Traditionally, the fourth quarter is a slower period for us, so we expect revenue to be roughly flat or slightly down. However, we anticipate that adjusted EBITDA will improve as we reap the full benefits of expense savings in our Origination segment and make changes in our Servicer and Real Estate segment that will yield partial benefits in the fourth quarter.

Raj Sharma, Analyst

Got it. So on Slide 8, when you show 17% on your run rate scenario, adjusted EBITDA margin, would you say that is a significant improvement from 2019 levels? Or...

Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer

And Raj, if you look at Slide 16, you can see a comparison to 2019.

Raj Sharma, Analyst

Right. Okay. That's helpful. That's very helpful. And then my other question was on the run rate scenario on Slide 8. So when do you expect to achieve the run rate scenario by in the Servicer segment? Is that mid-'23? Is that what I heard?

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, I believe we mentioned during the call that it's quite challenging to forecast accurately. If you take a closer look at Slide 16, which outlines all the assumptions we've made, it should provide you with insight into our perspective, Raj. Predicting is tough. However, as we approach the end of 2023, we expect to begin operating at a more standard rate. We aimed to strike a balance in how we approached this process, particularly regarding revenue per delinquent loan and our margins based on the improvements I've just noted. Compared to 2019, we anticipate our Servicer and Real Estate margins will surpass their previous levels. We projected the Origination business to remain flat compared to the past 12 months while maintaining the margins seen in 2019. We made a concerted effort to focus on the default business's performance. There is potential for increased sales, which could return to 2019 levels, presenting an opportunity for growth on both the Origination and Servicer fronts. Naturally, if a recession were to occur, these figures would also be affected.

Raj Sharma, Analyst

Right. And so on this run rate scenario, you're not really including the late-stage REO sales on Hubzu, the higher-margin business that you said, will probably kick in likely in '24.

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We are including what we would look like on a more normalized basis, making assumptions about Ocwen's portfolio decreasing over the next few years. We are being conservative by assuming we will be working with a smaller portfolio. This reflects what we believe our operation might look like once we reach normal levels.

Raj Sharma, Analyst

Right. Okay. And then lastly, regarding Origination, I see the run rate scenario shows flat origination revenues. How does that relate to your sales pipeline? When do you expect to convert the entire sales pipeline into sales, or at least a part of it? What is the timeline you mentioned?

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So the normal default market run rate just assumes the origination is equal to the trailing 12 months. Obviously, we have much greater ambitions than that. And if you look at the information we provided on this call with the $20 million of sales wins this year, so far only generating roughly $1.5 million of income. We think there’s a big opportunity for us to get from that $1.5 million, hopefully close to that $20 million. A lot depends on the origination volumes and the market, et cetera. But in any event that we’re finding is taking longer than we’ve originally anticipated if you go back to earlier in the year, so we’re learning a lot more about how long it takes to onboard new customers on our newer products. But I think as sort of general, I’d like to believe within a year of winning the deal, we could certainly have the client onboarded and generating revenue. And of course, I will be very proud of that. But it will then take some time after that before it stabilizes at the run rate, maybe another 6 months.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. That was the last question. Okay. No more questions. I would like to turn the call over back to Bill Shepro for closing remarks.

Bill Shepro, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Great. Thank you, operator, and thanks to those attending the call. We believe we have a very exciting opportunity in front of us with tailwinds in the default side of our business and good progress on growing sales on the Origination side of our business on a more moderate cost base. So we’re looking forward to the market moving more in our favor as well. Thanks for your time.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, everyone, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.