Earnings Call Transcript - ASX Q3 2022

Ken Hsiang, Head of Investor Relations

Hello. I am Ken Hsiang, the Head of Investor Relations for ASE Technology Holdings. Welcome to our Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release. Thank you for attending our conference call today. Please refer to our Safe Harbor notice on Page 2. All participants consent to having their voices and questions broadcast via participation in this event. If participants do not consent, please disconnect at this time. I would like to remind everyone that the presentation that follows may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a high degree of risk, and our actual results may differ materially. For the purposes of this presentation, our dollar figures are generally stated in New Taiwan dollars, unless otherwise indicated. As a Taiwan-based company, our financials are presented in accordance with Taiwan IFRS. Results presented using Taiwan IFRS may differ materially from results using other accounting standards, including those presented by our subsidiary using Chinese GAAP. Intercompany transactions between our ATM and EMS businesses have been eliminated during consolidation, but appear within business unit results. For today's call, I am joined by Joseph Tung, our CFO. During the call, I will go over our financial results and outlook, Joseph will be available to answer questions during the Q&A session that follows. Also as a reminder, we disposed of ASC Inc.'s China sites at the end of 2021. For our financial results presented here, in addition to our legal entity results, we have included information on a pro forma basis or as if the disposition of ASE Inc.'s China sites had already occurred. We believe the pro forma results give additional meaningful information, which would assist in providing comparability of our financial results. For the purposes of this presentation, we will generally discuss our full company and ATM third quarter results sequentially compared with second quarter legal entity results, and year-over-year compared with pro forma third quarter 2021. Please turn to Page 3, where you will find our third quarter consolidated results with legal entity and pro forma basis comparisons. For the third quarter, we recorded fully diluted EPS of NT$3.92 and basic EPS of NT$4.03. Consolidated net revenue increased 18% sequentially and 25% year-over-year. We had a gross profit of NT$38 billion with a gross margin of 20.1%. Our gross margin declined by 1.3 percentage points sequentially and 0.3 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential and annual margin decreases were primarily attributable to higher EMS business mix offset in part by favorable currency conditions within our ATM and EMS businesses. Our operating expenses increased sequentially by NT$0.5 billion during the third quarter to NT$14.3 billion, primarily as a result of higher R&D expenses with new product introductions or NPIs, and higher profit-sharing expenses during the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, our operating expenses increased by NT$1.9 billion, mainly from the increase of scale in both of our ATM and EMS businesses. Our operating expense percentage declined sequentially to 7.6%. On an annual basis, our operating expense percentage declined 1 percentage point from 8.6%. Improvements in operating expense percentage were achieved as a result of operating leverage created. Operating profit was NT$23.7 billion, up NT$3.1 billion sequentially and NT$5.3 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 12.6%, declining 0.2 percentage points sequentially. Operating margin increased 0.3 percentage points on an annual basis as a result of higher operating leverage. During the quarter, we had a NT$0.1 billion net non-operating loss. This amount included a gain from our net foreign exchange hedging activities offset in full by net interest expense of NT$1 billion. Interest expense is higher as a result of higher interest rates on our floating rate debt and higher borrowing after our dividend distribution during the quarter. Tax expense for the quarter was NT$5 billion. The effective tax rate for the third quarter was 21.4%. We expect the tax rate to taper down during the fourth quarter. We now expect a full year effective tax rate being closer to 21%. Net income for the quarter was NT$17.5 billion, representing an improvement of NT$1.5 billion sequentially and NT$3.3 billion year-over-year. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the NT dollar and the Chinese yuan during the third quarter. Sequentially, we estimate that currency fluctuation had a 1.2 percentage point beneficial impact to our holding company gross margin. From a year-over-year perspective, we estimate that currency fluctuation had a 3.1 percentage point positive impact to gross margin. On the bottom of the page, we provide key P&L line items without the inclusion of PPA-related expenses. Consolidated gross profit would be NT$38.9 billion with a 20.6% gross margin. Operating profit would be NT$24.9 billion with an operating margin of 13.2%. Net profit would be NT$18.6 billion with a net margin of 9.9%. Basic EPS, excluding PPA expenses, would be NT$4.30. On Page 4 is a graphical presentation of our consolidated financial performance. The overall gross margin performance of the company fluctuates somewhat generally in line with the mix of EMS revenue, relative to our ATM revenue. The overall profitability of the businesses have improved with increased business scale. Despite the business environment appearing to slow down, we still delivered record revenues and operating profit at the holding company level and at each of our ATM and EMS business units. On Page 5 is our ATM P&L with historical results on a legal entity and pro forma basis. During the third quarter, on a U.S. dollar basis, our ATM business revenues performed in line with our original outlook. Capacities continued to be relatively tight during the quarter and with strong demand for our advanced and SiP products, leading to higher material content. Overall, demand for our services remained strong despite ongoing inventory digestion. Customer forecast achievement was also relatively good during the quarter. We did not see major surprises to either the upside or downside, although forecast adjustments for future quarters were more dynamic. Certain communications, automotive, and networking products were relatively stronger during the quarter. On the expense side of our ATM business, as somewhat anticipated, we continued to see a higher cost environment relating to various unfavorable macro situations. In particular, we are noting some inflationary impacts on our cost of goods sold, including costs related to various bills of material, energy costs, and rising labor rates. These impacts have largely been offset by local currency depreciation and higher pass-through pricing to our customers. For the third quarter, revenues for our ATM business were a record NT$98.8 billion, up NT$3.8 billion from the previous quarter and up NT$8.7 billion from the same period last year. This represents a 4% increase sequentially and a 10% increase year-over-year. Gross profit for our ATM business was NT$28.8 billion, up NT$1.1 billion sequentially and up NT$4.1 billion year-over-year. Gross profit margin for our ATM business was 29.2%, flat sequentially and up 1.8 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential gross margins were flat primarily due to the effect of NT dollar depreciation, offset by higher raw material product mix and higher utility costs. The year-over-year gross profit margin improvement was primarily attributable to business scale benefits and NT dollar depreciation, offsetting the negative impact of a higher raw material product mix and increases in other manufacturing costs. During the third quarter, operating expenses were NT$10.2 billion, up NT$0.4 billion sequentially and NT$1.1 billion year-over-year. Our operating expense percentage was 10.3%, flat sequentially and up 0.2 percentage points year-over-year. The increase was driven by higher salary and profit-sharing expenses from achieving higher profitability targets. During the third quarter, operating profit was NT$18.7 billion, representing an increase of NT$0.7 billion quarter-over-quarter and an improvement of NT$3 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 18.9%, flat sequentially and up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year. The NT dollar depreciating against the U.S. dollar had a positive 1.3 percentage point impact on our ATM sequential margins. On a year-over-year basis, we estimate that the strengthening U.S. dollar had a 3.8 percentage point positive impact on margins. Without the impact of PPA-related depreciation and amortization, ATM gross profit margin would be 30.1%. Operating profit margin would be 20%. On Page 6, you'll find a graphical representation of our pro forma ATM P&L. On Page 7 is our pro forma ATM revenue by market segment. The market segments were relatively unchanged as compared with the previous quarter, with a 1 percentage increase in communications and a 1 percentage point decrease in automotive, consumer, and others. And though the automotive segment is not separately displayed here, it continues to outgrow other market segments. On Page 8, you will find our pro forma ATM by service type. Service type percentages were relatively stable with advanced packaging and wire bonding, each giving a percentage point to materials and others. Seasonal softness within our advanced packaging and wire bond businesses, compounded with the seasonality of our RF module production led to small percentage movements in each category. On Page 9, you can see the third quarter results of our EMS business. During the quarter, demand was stronger than anticipated, driven by higher loading and stronger-than-expected demand for both our traditional EMS and SiP services. We believe some products may have an earlier manufacturing cycle when compared with the previous year. Customers in general have been proactive to produce earlier as a preventive measure against any unforeseen supply chain disruptions. In terms of EMS profitability, current quarter improvements were driven by increased scale of manufacturing and the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to the RMB causing short-term reductions in raw material costs recorded during the quarter. During the third quarter, EMS revenues increased NT$24.4 billion or 37% sequentially and increased NT$29.5 billion or 48% year-over-year. Revenues were somewhat ahead of where we expected, primarily as a result of higher-than-expected SiP and traditional EMS business. Overall, profitability for our EMS business improved with gross margin increasing 0.1 percentage points to 10.1% and reaching a 5.6% operating margin. The RMB weakening against the U.S. dollar improved gross margins by 0.8 percentage points during the quarter. On the bottom half of the page, you will find a graphical representation of our EMS revenue by application. Application movements here are generally in line with underlying product seasonality with consumer and communications peaking and other applications declining. On Page 10, you will find key line items from our balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, we had cash, cash equivalents, and current financial assets of NT$62 billion. Our total interest-bearing debt was NT$224 billion. Total unused credit lines amounted to NT$296.1 billion. Our EBITDA for the quarter was NT$38.6 billion. Net debt to equity was 53%. Our annual dividend payment was made during the third quarter, resulting in a higher net debt to equity percentage. On Page 11, you will find our equipment capital expenditures. Machinery and equipment capital expenditures for the third quarter in U.S. dollars totaled $400 million, of which $197 million were used in packaging operations, $134 million in test operations, and $50 million in EMS operations and $19 million in interconnect material operations and others. We continue to provide our EBITDA in U.S. dollars here as a reference. We believe that the company's EBITDA relative to our equipment CapEx serves as a key financial performance metric for the company. For the quarter, EBITDA was $1.3 billion. Looking forward, we would first like to address the potential impact of the recent U.S. EAR. We, at this time, believe that relatively few devices that are currently serviced by ASC fit the specifications indicated in the recently issued U.S. rules. As such, at this time, we do not believe there to be a material financial impact. Nevertheless, we will continue to work closely with our customers to assess that future products may cross such thresholds. Second, in regards to the ongoing business environment, as our COO, Dr. Tien Wu mentioned in our previous quarter's call, we believe the industry continues to be in a state of inventory correction. Unexpected demand compounded with supply instability created an unprecedented manufacturing situation. The volatile supply chain was unusually complicated as COVID spread throughout the world. Companies not only needed to order more products, they also had to deal with longer lead times and earlier order commitments. As signs of cooling began towards the end of 2021 into early 2022, production continued at previously established rates. This phenomenon appears to have created a higher level of inventory throughout the semiconductor manufacturing chain. Now as most of the world adapts to an endemic COVID society, the semiconductor industry looks to reset back to a more normalized level of inventory. In the same light that our customers look to bring up overall inventory, they are now choosing to bring down inventory to adjust for lower manufacturing risk and a softening demand environment. This is the framework of the current industry inventory digestion. For the fourth quarter, we see a generally softening environment. There will be some products that remain relatively strong, but issues with potential recessions and anti-inflationary policies look to be dampening overall demand. Even looking beyond the fourth quarter, our customer forecasts are also experiencing an additional level of volatility as customers balance inventory reduction with product demand. Despite adjusting downward, forecast movements are on balance, very controlled. We do see this environment continuing to stretch into the first half of 2023. We believe that the interesting question to ask would be, what impact will the inventory digestion period have on ASE? And what will the impact be once it's over? Of course, we don't have a magic crystal ball, but we can take an educated guess based upon three differences between the previous down cycle versus the upcoming one. First and foremost, our combination with SPIL has been completed. This increases our service offerings and our pricing capability even in a soft environment. Second, we have demonstrated that customers prefer ASC over our competition. As a result, we continue to gain share and even more so in a downturn. We estimate that we are roughly three times the size and scale in pure ATM business of our nearest competitor. With sizable scale advantages come competitive advantages in the form of lower cost and better yield. Third, heterogeneous integration, paired with recent developments in advanced packaging technologies are encouraging our customers to rethink how their future products are designed. ATM manufacturing processes are now becoming part of the mainstream methodology for increasing transistor density. ASE is in a unique position to deliver additional value in these newly developing markets. These competitive factors lead us to believe that we are in the most competitive position we have been in ever. And as a result, we believe we can continue to outgrow our competition. Even though next year, we see the logic semiconductor industry's prospects as being somewhat soft, ASE can continue to outperform our competition. It's definitely early and customer forecasts are not particularly firm. But if we were to guess at this point, with the current information, we see a seasonally shaped, but flattish year ahead of us. From a profitability perspective, we reiterate our belief that annual structural margins have been lifted from peaking and troughing historically between cycles between 20% to 25% to now from the mid-20%s to 30%. Though we do not necessarily wish for a down cycle, we do understand that with one, we will be given the opportunity to prove our strategic assessment and demonstrate our resiliency. As a note, we are trying to improve transparency and simplify the methodology used to provide our quarterly outlook. We have made a few changes in the way we provide our outlook. Part of this change includes using NT dollar figures with applicable exchange rate assumptions. We see the U.S. dollar and NT dollar exchange rate going from 30.1% in the third quarter to 31.8% in the fourth quarter. With those exchange rates in mind, we provide our outlook as follows. For our ATM business in NT dollar terms, our ATM fourth quarter 2022 business levels should be slightly below second quarter levels this year. As a reference, our ATM second quarter revenues were NT$94.9 billion. Our ATM fourth quarter 2022 gross margin should be slightly below first quarter 2022 gross margin. As a reference, our first quarter 2022 gross margin was 27.5%. For our EMS business in NT dollar terms, our EMS fourth quarter 2022 business levels should be slightly above third quarter levels this year. As a reference, our third quarter EMS revenues were NT$90.7 billion. Our EMS fourth quarter 2022 operating margin should be close to the operating margin in the same period last year. As a reference, our fourth quarter 2021 operating margin was 4.4%. Thank you. We can start our Q&A session now.

Operator, Operator

Now we have a question from Mr. Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

Randy Abrams, Analyst

Yes. Okay, the first question I wanted to ask, actually on your acknowledgment of the slowdown. Could you talk about the CapEx outlook? It looks like you slowed it down a bit for the third quarter. If you could give a latest how you expect '22 to come in and then also a view for '23? And then within that, you've had relatively better utilization and strength on advanced technology, whether you're seeing that start to slow or do you still see, into the coming quarters, advanced holding up better than some of the mature wire bonding?

Joseph Tung, CFO

Yes, I think for this year's CapEx, we will bring this down a little bit, roughly around 10%. For next year, we're still in the process of formulating the overall outlook, and we will decide how much we will be spending for next year. In terms of utilization in quarter 3, we continue to have pretty tight utilization with assembly and tests, both over 80%. But going into the fourth, I think the overall utilization will range from 75% to 80% for both assembly and test with the advanced packaging capacity slightly higher than wire bonding.

Randy Abrams, Analyst

I would like to ask about the margins. It seems that in your guidance, they are returning to first quarter levels, while sales are returning to second quarter levels, which suggests a potential decline despite favorable currency conditions. Could you elaborate on this trend? Additionally, I believe you mentioned an improving pricing environment. How are you observing that? Are there pressures from customers or competitors that are influencing this situation? Finally, what factors are contributing to a more significant decline in margins?

Joseph Tung, CFO

In the fourth quarter, overall pricing seems to be stable, though we anticipate a return to more typical pricing negotiations next year. Regarding margin, the loading is a crucial factor, and entering quarter 4, we expect some softness in overall utilization and a slight decrease in volume, which will impact margins. In quarter 3, we enjoyed better margins due to high loading levels. Looking ahead to quarter 4, our margin outlook reflects differences in loading. Additionally, we are facing a higher cost structure due to the macroeconomic situations we are encountering.

Operator, Operator

Next question is from Ms. Sunny Lin of UBS. Sunny?

Sunny Lin, Analyst

Hi, can you hear me?

Operator, Operator

Yes.

Sunny Lin, Analyst

So my first question is to get your thoughts on how we should think about the seasonality going to the first half of 2023. I understand things are still moving pretty quickly, but any initial expectation will be appreciated?

Joseph Tung, CFO

Like we said, there's still a lot of uncertainties in front of us, and we are not giving out any guidance for the first quarter yet. What we can say is, we're going to see a normal seasonality factor that comes into play. And typically, in the first quarter, in the past, under the normal seasonality, we should be looking at a 5% to 10% drop in the revenue.

Sunny Lin, Analyst

Got it. Then my second question is, if we look at the demand environment for the second half of the year, automotive, consumer, industrial are still relatively stable. But how would you think about the sustainability going to early 2023? I guess in recent weeks, we started to hear from the supply chain regarding the increasing uncertainties. So just wanted to get your thoughts here. And also, would you expect the IBM outsourcing to also slow down somewhat going to 2023?

Joseph Tung, CFO

I think we're not different from anybody else in the industry that we are facing the same uncertainties in front of us. And our best estimate for the year is that we should be looking at a flattish year. And given our position, we remain confident that we will outperform the industry as a whole and also our competitors. Going into the first quarter, I think the same pattern remains that the automotive and networking will continue to be performing stronger than the other sectors. And I think the industry inventory digestion will continue in the first half of next year. And also, the new restrictions imposed by the U.S., that remains to be seen. So there are a lot of moving parts in front of us, and we will be closely monitoring the situation.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Baya Kumar. Baya, please state your company name before your questions. Baya? Our next question is from Rick Hsu.

Rick Hsu, Analyst

Yes, can you guys hear me?

Operator, Operator

Yes.

Rick Hsu, Analyst

I have a question for Joseph. When you mentioned that you're expecting a flat performance in 2023, does that refer to your overall business, the total industry for integrated circuits and ATMs, or the global semiconductor market?

Joseph Tung, CFO

No, no, we're talking about ourselves. I think the general idea is that the market returns softer next year. But from our best estimates, we're looking at our overall situation and the customer forecast, we're still confident that we will outcompete everybody else and maintain at least a flattish year for ourselves in terms of our ATM business. And another factor to look at is that we believe that in a down, particularly in a downward market situation, our market share expansion should actually accelerate given our leading position there.

Rick Hsu, Analyst

Right. Okay. Just one quick follow-up. Can you give us more color about what's your view on the global semiconductor market next year? Were a bit declining or just give us some direction?

Joseph Tung, CFO

Well, I think the chance of coming down seems to be higher.

Operator, Operator

Next question is from Evelyn Yu of Goldman Sachs.