Earnings Call Transcript
ATN International, Inc. (ATNI)
Earnings Call Transcript - ATNI Q4 2023
Operator, Operator
Thank you for joining us for ATN International's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we'll be reviewing our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results and providing additional insights on 2024. I'm joined today by Brad Martin, ATN's Chief Executive Officer; Carlos Doglioli, ATN's incoming Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Prior, ATN's Executive Chairman, who will be available for the Q&A portion of the call. As a reminder, we announced our 2023 fourth quarter and full year results yesterday afternoon after the market closed. Investors can find the earnings release and conference call slide presentation on our Investor Relations website. Our earnings release and the presentation contain forward-looking statements concerning our current expectations, objectives and underlying assumptions regarding our future operating results. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described. Also, in an effort to provide useful information for investors, our comments today include non-GAAP financial measures. For details on these measures and reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures, and for further information regarding the factors that may affect our future operating results, please refer to our earnings release on our website at atni.com, or the 8-K filing provided to the SEC. And now I'll turn the call over to Brad.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Justin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. It's a pleasure to be here for our first earnings call as ATN's CEO. I'll begin covering highlights from our Q4 and fiscal year 2023 performance and progress executing our strategy. Following that, Justin will review our financials in more detail and provide an update on our 2024 guidance. This is a significant time in ATN's journey. We've entered the third and final year of our strategic investment plan to expand the reach and capability of our high-speed networks and to bring more high-speed data services to remote and underserved consumers and businesses. The investments we are making position ATN to continue delivering high-quality, reliable services to our customers, while providing a solid foundation for growing high-speed data subscribers and recurring revenues, expanding free cash flows, and delivering sustainable value creation for our stakeholders in the years ahead. As a result, ATN today is a stronger, more resilient company. We concluded a solid 2023, with a strong fourth quarter, executing on our First-to-Fiber and Glass and Steel investment strategy. Our continued conversion of customers to our high-speed networks and focus on margin improvement contributed to subscriber growth, higher revenue, and margin expansion. In fact, both the quarter and the year, we achieved single-digit revenue growth and double-digit expansion of adjusted EBITDA. Justin will expand more on our financial results shortly, but first, I'd like to start with four key points that frame our 2023 performance and the opportunities ahead for ATN. First, in 2023, we executed several important strategic milestones that are key to our success going forward. We advanced our First-to-Fiber and Glass and Steel investment strategy by adding fiber-rich digital infrastructure in the markets we serve. In May, we announced our long-term agreement with Verizon. We have made strong progress towards our multiyear effort to transition our large carrier customers from legacy wholesale roaming services to carrier managed services that provide ATN with greater revenue stability. We completed the integration of Sacred Wind, a core addition to our operations and expanded our business and retail broadband operations domestically. In 2023, we also completed initiatives to rightsize operations to better support the business into the future. These actions are now complete in the U.S. and essentially completed internationally. All in all, we have enhanced our capabilities to better serve our customers and provide high-quality, reliable products and services for the coming years. As a result of these combined efforts, ATN is operating from a strong and scalable foundation as we enter 2024. Second, our First-to-Fiber and Glass and Steel infrastructure investments are yielding results across key operational metrics. Expanding high-speed network reach and capabilities provides a solid foundation for delivering strong recurring revenues, durable free cash flow, and shareholder value over the long term. Since launching our strategy at the start of 2022, we've increased high-speed broadband subscribers by 39%, nearly doubled broadband homes passed by high-speed data services, and expanded our fiber network reach by nearly 50%. Third, our performance validates ATN's strong market position. As we have said before, we play directly into what is unquestionably one of the world's most durable secular growth drivers, the need to be connected anytime and everywhere. Our network's reliability, consistency, and efficiency have improved customer satisfaction as exemplified by strong subscriber growth and low churn. Our deeply embedded relationships with local communities, customers, enterprises, governments, and carriers continue to position ATN with an essential competitive advantage. And fourth, as we look to 2024 and beyond, we're committed to managing our balance sheet to maximize cash flow expansion and to realize the full benefits of our investments in the years ahead. While we plan to continue to invest in our network expansion this year, we will move down the other side of our three-year investment bell curve. As we dial back internally funded capital spending, we continue to leverage our upgraded network footprint and available grant funding to augment network expansions and continue to grow our subscriber base and recurring revenue. Additionally, we will continue to advance margin improvement initiatives to manage run-rate operating costs. All in all, these actions position ATN to reap the full benefits of our network investment in the years ahead, including accelerated cash flow generation and subscriber and revenue growth at higher incremental margins. Let's turn to operational wins. Providing high-speed connectivity to more customers and as many remote and underserved reasons as possible is core to our mission and strategy. In Q4, we continued to make great progress on this front in both the U.S. and international markets. We exited 2023 with 20% more high-speed broadband subscribers and 33% more broadband homes passed by high-speed data services compared to the prior year. We also have had great success scaling our fiber footprint. Fiber has many advantages. It's more energy efficient, requires less maintenance, and provides superior customer experience. As we replace and decommission legacy copper networks with fiber networks, we are positioning ATN to deliver higher margin revenue over time. We exited 2023 with 11,650 fiber route miles, an 11% year-over-year increase, and increased our fiber homes passed footprint by 32%. Now taking a closer look at operational highlights by segment. Starting with our International segment, which represents about half of ATN's revenue and includes operations in Bermuda and Caribbean, where we operate in fast-growing markets like the Cayman Islands and Guyana. Across this segment, we continue to see rapid uptake of high-speed broadband, with high-speed data subscriber growth of 20% year-over-year. Additionally, we have seen strong mobile subscriber growth, which grew 8% in 2023 behind investments in network core upgrade, densification, and 5G rollouts. We remain optimistic about the growth and free cash flow expansion opportunities across our international markets as we continue to benefit from networking and operating investments, attractive market tailwinds, and our unique value proposition. Our U.S. segment, which serves rural communities in the West and Southwest as well as urban and rural areas of Alaska accounts for the other half of ATN's revenue. In Q4, we achieved several key operational milestones in the U.S. as we advanced our domestic strategy to increase broadband homes passed by high-speed data and pivot away from our legacy wireless wholesale roaming business by meeting our carrier customers' evolving business needs. We expanded our middle and last mile fiber networks, advanced the capacity and reach of our next-generation fixed wireless network, enabling 7% year-over-year growth on recurring business data revenue. In the U.S., we continue to pursue grant funding to augment our fiber and fixed wireless high-speed network expansion in rural areas, including parts of Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. In Q4, we were recipients of nearly $4 million in Federal grants, bringing total awarded grants to us and our partners to $91.2 million in 2023. Also in Q4, we renewed our agreement with the Alternative Connect America Model Program, or ACAM, locking in the continuation of the subsidy funding to serve locations in Mexico in the amount of $118 million over the next 15 years. As it relates to grants and external funding, I want to clarify a few key points. First, one of our core competencies at ATN is our deep understanding of the mechanics of grants and third-party funding. We have a long track record of using discretion to ensure that grants we participate in are economically viable. Second, the network builds funded by these and future grants are expected to extend over the next several years. As a result, these funds will support our continued network expansion and customer revenue growth even as the pace of our self-funded capital decreases as planned. And third, ATN is well positioned to compete for the $4.2 billion of telecom infrastructure funding allocated to the six states that we operate in. We are actively working in jurisdictions on the opportunities that align with our business strategy. In conclusion, our strategy to expand high-speed network reach capabilities, while managing costs through margin improvement initiatives, positions ATN to reap the benefits of our investment for years to come. Looking ahead to 2024, it's all about continued execution of our plan. Our priorities remain to continue growing high-speed data network subscriber base and expanding our fiber footprint through targeted internal funded investments, albeit at a slower pace as we come down the backside of our three-year investment bell curve, to pursue economically viable grants to augment these internal investments, to advance margin improvement initiatives, and to manage our balance sheet to maximize cash flow and increase shareholder value. And with that, I'll hand the call back to you, Justin.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Great. Thank you, Brad. ATN's strong fourth quarter and full year performance reflects our team's hard work executing against our three-year strategic investment plan. In 2023, we achieved consistent top line growth and even stronger adjusted EBITDA growth, well in line with our guidance for the year. Turning to the P&L highlights. In Q4, total company revenue of $199 million grew 4% before construction revenue compared with the same period in 2022. Higher fixed revenue was driven by growth in rural broadband revenue and high-speed data subscribers. The quarter also benefited from $3.1 million of nonrecurring revenue associated with engineering services we provided on a fiber deployment. For the full year, revenue totaled $762.2 million. This represents a 6% increase over the prior year, excluding construction revenue from both periods, reflecting the momentum of our strategic network investments. Operating income in the fourth quarter was $3.3 million versus $4.7 million in Q4 of 2022. The year-over-year decrease was due to a $6.6 million restructuring charge related to our ongoing efforts to better align our cost structure to the future needs of the business, and a $1.3 million net loss on the disposition of assets and changes in contingent considerations. Full year operating income for 2023 increased to $13.2 million, which was negatively impacted by restructuring charges of $11.2 million. This compares to operating income of $7.9 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA growth was exceptionally strong for both the fourth quarter and the full year, increasing 13% to $51 million for the quarter and 10% to $189.5 million for the full year. This performance was fueled by strength across both segments as we benefited from higher revenue and our ongoing margin expansion initiatives. Net loss in Q4 was $5.8 million, or a loss of $0.46 per share, compared with the prior year's net loss of $1.4 million, or a loss of $0.18 per share. The quarter was affected by the restructuring charge and a year-over-year increase in interest expense of $4.7 million. For the full year, the net loss was $14.5 million, or $1.25 per share, which included the restructuring charge of $11.2 million and higher interest expense year-over-year. This compares to a full year 2022 net loss of $5.6 million or $0.67 per share. Looking now at the segment performance. The International segment delivered revenue growth of 5% in the quarter and 4% for the full year. As Brad mentioned, we saw strong high-speed data subscriber growth that drove increased fixed broadband revenues. Mobile revenues in the segment were flat in the quarter as strong subscriber growth for the segment was offset by a lower ARPU in some of our bigger prepaid markets. Adjusted EBITDA for the International segment increased 6% for the quarter and 4% for the full year. In our Domestic segment, total Q4 revenue grew 3%, driven by the growth in fixed revenue and engineering services, as I previously noted. On a full year basis, Domestic revenue increased by 6% as we benefited from strong fixed revenue growth related to greater enterprise and emergency connectivity fund revenue in Alaska as well as the Sacred Wind acquisition. Carrier revenues were flat, both for the quarter and the year. As Brad mentioned, moving into 2024, we will have transitioned the bulk of the carrier service revenue from the legacy wholesale roaming revenue to offering a suite of infrastructure and network services to our large carrier customers in the U.S. Adjusted EBITDA for the Domestic segment was very strong, up 20% for the quarter, well outpacing our revenue growth, and up 17% for the year as we benefited from margin expansion efforts that we have been focusing on throughout the year. Moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We exited the year with a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.4x on total debt outstanding of $517 million. Net cash provided by operating activities was $113 million for the year, up from $103 million in the prior year period as the funding of working capital improved in 2023. Maintaining the strength of our balance sheet remains a top priority for ATN, and we expect to continue expanding cash flow as we leverage the benefit of our investments made in our networks over the past few years. Turning now to capital expenditures. In line with our three-year strategic investment plan for the full year 2023, we invested nearly $200 million, expanding both the reach and quality of our networks in all our markets. Of the nearly $200 million invested, CapEx funded through operations was $163.3 million, and $32.9 million was funded through reimbursable government programs. These investments have upgraded the capabilities of our networks and enabled our teams to greatly expand the reach of our fiber facilities that ATN can leverage for years to come. As provided in our guidance, our CapEx spending through operations is expected to decrease substantially in 2024 and continue to move lower into 2025. We expect to augment this more normalized CapEx spending levels with government subsidy grant programs and funding. Returning capital to shareholders remains a capital allocation priority. In 2023, ATN returned $15 million to shareholders through our share repurchase program, and we paid out an additional $13.2 million in dividends. In December, we announced the Board of Directors' decision to increase the quarterly dividend 14% year-over-year to $0.24 per share, and the expansion of our share repurchase program, allowing the company to repurchase up to an additional $25 million of common shares. Turning now to our full year 2024 outlook. For the full year, we expect total company revenues in the range of $750 million to $770 million, excluding construction revenue. As a reminder, a $27 million annual COVID-related government contract is scheduled to expire at the end of the first quarter in our U.S. segment, which will affect year-over-year revenue growth comparisons beginning in Q2. We expect other revenue growth to offset that reduction as we move through the year. We continue to expect adjusted EBITDA for the full year within our previously provided preliminary guidance range of $200 million to $208 million. As we move through 2024 and begin to expand cash flow, we expect to exit the year with a net debt ratio of between 2.25x to 2.4x. As I mentioned previously, maintaining healthy debt levels is a top priority for ATN, and our goal remains to continue bringing leverage closer to 2x over the medium term. Turning now to our capital expenditure guidance. After reviewing our 2024 projects and the status of grant funding we are eligible for, we have lowered our capital expenditure outlook by $10 million to a new range of $110 million to $120 million. As a result of the investments we've made, ATN is in an excellent position to expand cash flow and fuel profitable growth in the years to come. Finally, as announced at the end of last year, this will be my last earnings call as CFO before I retire. Reflecting on my past 18 years with ATN, I'm proud of the organization that we've built and the incredible progress this entire company has made together over the years. I truly value my partnership with Michael over the past 18 years and the great team of financial executives and our assistant, Kathy, who supported us both for much of that time. I'd also like to express my gratitude for the opportunity to connect with many of you, our shareholders and analysts that cover ATN. I truly appreciate the support you provided me over the years. Having worked closely with Brad for several years, I have the utmost confidence that he is the right leader for ATN at this stage in our transformation. Additionally, in my time with Carlos, I can assure you he is a seasoned leader, with strong industry knowledge, financial and operational experience, and a collaborative approach to business. I have the full confidence that Brad and Carlos will seamlessly lead ATN through the completion of a three-year strategy and set a compelling vision for ATN's next phase of growth. Before opening up to questions, I'd like to just turn the call over to Carlos, who has a few words to say.
Carlos Doglioli, Incoming Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Justin. Hello, everyone. It is an honor to be here today. ATN is a solid company that has been investing in the foundation for the continuing creation of shareholder value. Since joining ATN in January, I've been impressed with the thoroughness of ATN's finance team, the strength and experience of the leadership team, and the clarity of the organization's mission and strategy. I am grateful for the quality time that I have spent with Justin. I look forward to building on the disciplined financial foundation he has established to continue to generate value for our investors and stakeholders for years to come. I look forward to meeting with many of you in the months ahead. And with that, I turn the call back over to Brad.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Justin and Carlos. We are very excited for ATN's future. Through our First-to-Fiber and Glass and Steel investment strategies, and ongoing focus on margin improvement, we are laying the foundation for durable long-term growth in the years ahead. The ATN value proposition continues to resonate with customers around the globe. Our teams remain energized and execute on our promise to help rural and underbuilt communities advance their quality of life through reliable, high-quality digital connectivity. With that, operator, we'd like to open up for questions.
Operator, Operator
Our first question comes from the line of Ric Prentiss of Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Yes. Justin, I wish you well in retirement. We enjoyed working with you. And Brad and Carlos, look forward to getting to know you guys better.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
First question, Justin, you called out that you've got this COVID program that's expiring in Q1 '24. Can you remind us what line item is that revenue in domestic? How much was that in '23? And how much will it be in Q1 '24? Because obviously, it's affecting the revenue growth rate in '24 versus '23?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Yes. It's a fixed revenue, so it's reported in fixed. It's been a pretty consistent number to the number we gave. So it's a $27 million program, and it's kind of pro rata over the quarter. So we'll have a pro rata amount in Q1, then it will drop off. So it's roughly a $21 million impact next year.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
The $21 million for three quarters worth of '24 is what it would be down.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Correct, right. So we'll have it in Q1, but then it drops.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Right, right. Okay. And is that a super high-margin business loan? Just wondering how that affects EBITDA.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Yes, it did involve significant costs, specifically COGS, but it also generated margin.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Okay. When we consider the $21 million you've mentioned, the revenue growth rate from 2023 to 2024 appears to be fairly low. Can you clarify how you've allocated your capital expenditures? You've made some exciting additions to high-speed broadband in both of your regions. How should we approach expectations for revenue growth in a more typical scenario, excluding this COVID program?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
I still think, Ric, that we can be in the range that we guided to a while back, right, in the 4% to 6% range of revenue growth. This year, the drop in that ETF program definitely muted it, though, obviously.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Okay. Brad, you mentioned margin improvements several times in your remarks. What is the target you are aiming for? Is there a difference between domestic and international margins? Where do you see yourself going in terms of margin improvement?
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Ric. That's a great question and definitely a key area of focus for the business. The guidance we provided for 2024 includes many of these initiatives. We consistently measure ourselves against industry benchmarks, but we're also aiming higher. Our guidance for 2024 reflects a continued concentration that began during my time here and will remain a significant focus for the business as we move forward.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
So the guidance for '24 kind of assumes that maybe a 27% margin?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Yes, using the midpoint, I think, on that. And I would just say, too, it's in both segments, Ric, just kind of we're working on.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Okay. Last question for me then. On the CapEx, obviously, getting back to more normal levels in '25, somewhere between 10% and 15% of total revenues ex-construction. What would cause it to go to the low end of that range, and what would cause it to go to the high end of the range? And obviously, I think that assumes that any government funding is separate and that gets netted out.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, that's a great question, Ric. You mentioned the range. The key factors that influence CapEx timing are primarily based on success in the year. There are markets we operate in that can be quite complicated to plan for timing, often due to various weather-related complexities. A significant factor is the timing of existing grant programs that we have already received. These can vary by state and by program, leading to substantial differences. This variability could potentially result in an overall lower CapEx level, but it would depend on the specifics of each individual market.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Greg Burns of Sidoti.
Gregory Burns, Analyst
When you look at the broadband penetration homes passed versus subscriber growth, the subscriber growth is lagging the homes passed growth by a little bit. Can you just talk about maybe your plans for marketing promotion, any activities or programs you might have in place to continue to increase that broadband penetration?
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for the question. Our main focus is to achieve penetration as quickly as possible in any infrastructure development. We assess every situation competitively, considering various products and competitive solutions across our portfolio. We are continuously looking for ways to accelerate progress. We make efforts to shorten the presell timing using different techniques, although it can vary significantly from market to market depending on competitive dynamics and technology. We are transitioning from a significant investment phase, and expanding the number of homes connected offers us a valuable opportunity to grow further.
Gregory Burns, Analyst
Okay. And then in Guyana, there's some saber rattling going on down there. What is your exposure to maybe the disputed regions? And maybe, I guess, what the risk is to you that maybe something escalates in that region?
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I will start on that answer, and Michael who has been closest too, can chime in. Generally, this is something we obviously watch very closely. It's something that we stay very close to the other major U.S. investors in that market and the Exxon CEO spoke to this in their earnings call as well, and spoke to the fact that they think it's a general low risk, but it's something that's watched very closely. And we make sure that the teams are aligned. The general disputed area is an area where very little of our infrastructure resides. It's a very unpopulated portion of Guyana. But it's something we're watching closely as things develop. And we're certainly making sure we have our teams aligned around what we effectively are monitoring with our governments and our business partners. Michael anything to add to that?
Michael T. C. Prior, Executive Chairman
Yes, this is Michael. I don't think there's much to add. I would just emphasize that the concern is really about potential interruptions in Guyana, which we certainly hope do not occur. We also hope that there won't be any kind of minor military action. From our discussions, it doesn't seem likely, but it's hard to say for sure. The important point is that from an economic and business perspective, as Brad mentioned, very little of our operations are situated in the region that Venezuela is claiming.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Hamed Khorsand of BWS.
Hamed Khorsand, Analyst
I want to ask about the sequential increase in U.S.-related revenue of about $7 million. How much of that are you able to retain going forward? I know the grant money is coming off in Q2, but realistically, how much of that revenue can you hold on to?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
There was an engineering service revenue of about $3 million that I mentioned earlier. Generally, I believe much of that is sustainable, although we do have to consider the drop-off in ECS that I referenced.
Hamed Khorsand, Analyst
Okay. And then could you provide a little bit more details about the restructuring down that you took, and why you decided that you had to take it down?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Yes. The restructuring was really kind of cost reduction initiatives, right, in terms of workforce and leases and things like that, that we took off. So there it predominantly is all onetime charges associated with exiting those costs. That answers your question.
Hamed Khorsand, Analyst
I guess I was asking why now? What was the impediment to do it now?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
It's really a part of the initiative to just kind of more efficiently run the business and improve the margins.
Hamed Khorsand, Analyst
Got it. And my last question was, last earnings call, you were talking about the churn going up in mobile, that came down. What was the result of that as far as the improvement you've seen? Is that because of better marketing, the consumer there is happy with the mobile service they have and the mobile phones they have? I know in the past, you've talked about that they have two phones, and now they're back to one.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Hamed, I'll take that. This year, we experienced a situation in one of our key prepaid markets where a smaller competitor introduced a free offering with a new network. This development positively affected our subscriber data consumption. It was part of a six-month promotional period that has now concluded.
Hamed Khorsand, Analyst
Congrats Justin on the retirement.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Hamed.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Rick Prentiss of Raymond James.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Did you all have any exposure to the ACP program? Is that what you're referring to in the COVID one? Or what was your exposure to ACP?
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Ric, that was not what we're referring to as the COVID. That was a different program called emergency connectivity Fund. ACP, we are watching this closely. We do have some exposure to the ACP. It's not a huge overall to ATN. We are still working to quantify the overall impact in options to help mitigate it.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Okay. Do you know how many subs you have sort of ability to kind of show us what that ballpark number is?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
We haven't given that, Ric, yet. I think we probably just need more time for us to quantify it.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Yes. And the anticipation is that it might stop in April, right?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I think that's correct.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Okay. And other question for me is free cash flow looks like we're there on the cusp of turning the corner to be positive free cash flow. Can you talk a little bit about maybe cash taxes and interest, which would be the other items compared to EBITDA and CapEx. But are you feeling pretty good that maybe even early this year, you get to that free cash flow positive dynamic? And then what kind of progress from there?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Yes, we are definitely working to increase free cash flow and have been consistent in communicating that. Regarding interest, our priority is to reduce leverage, which will help lower interest costs. You have probably noticed our interest expense has been manageable this quarter. Our cash taxes are limited at the moment, but our objective is to continue expanding free cash flow, reduce leverage, and return value to shareholders.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Okay. And we don't usually include in our valuation free cash flow, but are there any unusual working capital items coming up?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
There is nothing unusual, but we are monitoring the government reimbursement programs. We already have some working capital tied up in these programs as we proceed with the replace and remove process. We are managing this closely, but it requires some effort to ensure that part of the working capital does not grow too much. However, it remains necessary to spend that money before we receive reimbursement.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
What's the lag as far as from spending to reimbursement? Is that 6, 9 months? Is it...
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
I don't know. It's probably in a shorter period than that.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
It does vary by program, Ric, but we have seen much better than that. Some of these larger programs certainly require a lot of details for reimbursement. However, it has been measured in weeks, which is good. Additionally, there have been some programs that allowed for pre-positioning, enabling an effective six-month pre-positioning of invoicing.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
The key for us is to manage the pace of our construction and the reimbursement process effectively. There's a significant amount of management involved in it, clearly.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
Michael T. C. Prior, Executive Chairman
It's worth adding to that just that we've also entered into agreements on some of the big vendor contracts that you get paid when we get paid kind of thing.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Yes.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
And a lot of your reimbursement probably coming from states instead of the U.S.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
It is mostly U.S. Federal government, but there are some states as well.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
The ones we're working on now.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
If our government can get something done in weeks, that's all right. The last point I have is about the leverage guidance, which has changed slightly. Previously, we aimed for approximately 2x by the end of 2024, and now it's adjusted to the range of 2.25x to 2.4x. We were forecasting around 2.2x in our model. Was this just a fine-tuning as we approach the 2x range, or is there something specific that differs from the prior guidance?
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
No, it's probably I think it's just a little bit of fine-tuning how much working capital we might have tied up in some of the reimbursement programs, so that's where the fine tuning was.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Justin, again, best wishes.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Ric. Appreciate it. Thanks for all the support over the years.
Operator, Operator
As there are no further questions in queue, I would now like to turn the call over to Brad Martin, ATN's Chief Executive Officer for closing remarks. Sir?
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today. We will be participating in Sidoti's small-cap Virtual Investor Conference on March 14. We look forward to meeting with many of you there. I would like to take a moment to thank Justin for his leadership and his commitment to long-term tenure to ATN. I wish you all the best in your retirement.
Justin Benincasa, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Brad.
Brad Martin, Chief Executive Officer
And thank you again for your time. With that, operator, I'll turn it back to you.
Operator, Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.