Earnings Call Transcript - AU Q2 2024

Operator, Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AngloGold Ashanti H1 2024 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity to ask questions later during the conference. Please note that this call is being recorded. I would now like to the conference over to Stewart Bailey. Please go ahead, sir.

Stewart Bailey, Head of Investor Relations

Thanks very much Denney, and welcome everybody to AngloGold Ashanti’s First Half 2024 Results. As always, Alberto and Gillian will cover the material in the call and you've got other members of the executive leadership team to take your questions. Before we go into the presentation I would invite you to look at the Safe Harbor statement at the front end of the presentation deck that contains important information regarding forward-looking statements and we do encourage you to study it when you have a moment. Without any further ado, I'll hand over to Alberto.

Alberto Calderon, CEO

Thank you, Stewart. Before we go to the numbers, I’ll start with safety. After three years with no fatalities at our managed operations, we received the tragic reminder in May that we're only as good as our last day with no serious injury. A colleague and father of three who worked for a drilling contractor at Geita lost his life when the light motor vehicle he was driving overturned after he lost control going down a steep hill. Marcelo Godoy, our CTO, completed an in-depth investigation into the incident, which identified clear steps to ensure that there is no repeat going into the future. Our thoughts are with Albert’s family and loved ones as we mourn his loss. I have led a series of town hall meetings across our business over the past few weeks, reflecting on the lessons learned from this tragedy and leading a campaign to ensure continuous focus on the few critical controls needed to eliminate what we call high consequence low frequency events like this. We continue to invest considerable resources in understanding the root causes of all accidents, including high potential incidents or near misses, to prevent recurrences. This process is a strong indicator of the strength of our safety culture and the effectiveness of our systems, providing a strong foundation on which to continue working toward our ultimate goal of zero harm. Next slide, before we turn to the numbers in detail, I'm very pleased to report strong operating and financial results for the half-year. These results show the hard work that has been done by so many to improve the fundamentals of our business, to drive productivity benefits and to manage costs. Most of our Tier-1 assets recorded solid performance driven both by higher tons and higher grades mined. At the Tier-2 mines, we continue to drive full potential initiatives to enhance asset performance. Now that we are well into full potential execution, we have seen our costs trend lower. We will talk about that later. We are the only gold major that has reported so far to post an improvement in cash costs at the half, meaning that we have been able to capture the benefits of stronger gold prices. Revenue is up more than $400 million year on year, all of which has flowed directly into the bottom line. We are building strong operating momentum into the second half when we expect to deliver not only further production and cost improvements, but significantly stronger cash flows. So, to go into the numbers, production was up 2% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from our key assets. That result was significantly aided by a strong Q2 where production was 12% higher versus the first quarter. This was driven by Australia's strong improvements following the flooding in March and Siguiri bouncing back from the recovery challenges that hurt Q1 production. Brazil's turnaround is a clear highlight with a cash flow turnaround that was barely imaginable a year ago. Our cash costs were 1% lower year-on-year as I mentioned a moment ago. This is not luck; in fact, the improvement was achieved despite the stiff headwinds we faced in Australia and Guinea in Q1. It is a testament to our production report potential program, which is yielding the benefits we expected, and we believe more is yet to come. On the back of these production and cost improvements, we are starting to see the leverage to a higher gold price that has been so rare across the sector during previous up cycles in the gold market. We reported a 65% increase in EBITDA to $1.12 billion and, more importantly, a swing of more than $400 million turnaround in free cash flow, which came in at $206 million versus an outflow of $205 million last year. This was well up ahead of the higher price due to improvements in both ounces sold and costs. Most encouraging is that we anticipate a stronger second half. With that in mind, we have declared a dividend that reflects that confidence. Gillian will cover that in more detail, but it is clear that we have the conviction in the consistency of our operating performance and a commitment to ensure shareholders see improved returns. This, of course, is underpinned by confidence in our balance sheet. Liquidity is very strong, gearing is low, even while we invest in our existing portfolio and growth pipeline, and we are well on track to achieve guidance. As I said in May, we were focused during Q2 recovering from the obvious Q1 challenges that caused us significant ounces in Australia and Guinea. You can see the extent of the flooding that hit our Australian operations in March. Pits and infrastructure were flooded at Tropicana, and crucially, the 400-kilometer access road to this remote site had significant stretches underwater. This took some time to dry and cure sufficiently before it could reopen. Remedial works were completed in Q2, and we started operations successfully. This, in turn, saw improved production at both sites, although ongoing rainfall during Q2 caused intermittent interruptions to our supply lines into Tropicana, sometimes hampering our ability to restock consumables and other important items. Nonetheless, we expect to recover a significant portion of the lost production in the second half. I spoke about the challenges we saw at Siguiri in Q1, including low digger availability, poor availability of spares and, most of all, the steep drop in recoveries. We have improved maintenance, addressed spare inventories and saw a 38% bump in our tons in Q2. A new excavator has also been delivered, which will help us continue improving the trajectory in Q2. Metallurgical recovery stabilized at around 87% in Q2, up from the low 70s in Q1. In fact, we have seen average recoveries about 90% in July. We are looking at the work that can be done to improve carbon management and oxygen deficiency in the plant, which will help maintain and potentially improve these strong recoveries even when we introduce the challenging BD ore to the plant. The good news is that we're in no rush to do that, given the ability to source ore from alternative pits. So we may only need the BD-winning ore in 2026, and we will then be well prepared to process it. Brazil's picture is something we probably would not have imagined such a turnaround a year ago. It's hard to overstate what has happened in the past 12 months under the new leadership we appointed last year. The team delivered a 15% year-on-year increase in gold production in H1 and a 19% reduction in cash costs year-on-year. The free cash outflow of $140 million during the first half of last year, which hammered our half-year result, has turned into a $53 million inflow during the first half of this year. As you can see, this was not simply a gold price story, but rather driven by controllable factors that we manage across the business. More extraordinary is that this cash flow result was achieved despite a roughly $200 per ounce discount for every ounce of concentrate we sold from Cuiaba, when that facility was suspended. The very good news is that the path is now clear to restart that facility during the second half, which will allow us to resume refined gold production and start to recapture the full margin once again. Obuasi’s Q2 production was a steady 54,000 ounces. The v30 reamer continues to work as expected, safely pushing underground ore volumes for the larger open stopes. We’ve seen better results with ore tons in Q2 averaging around 97,000 per month, which is a 6% increase from Q1. If you compare H1 2023 to H1 2024, we’re up 12%. We are, however, experiencing challenges in Block 8, which is a very mature block with fewer suitable working areas, more congestion, and has less flexibility than we'd like to have. The significant volatility in its grade in the last part of Block 8 impacted mine grades, particularly during April and May—the zones that we were mining. However, we did reach equivalent analyzed production of 300,000 ounces in June and are on track to surpass that this month. Consequently, we expect to reach production for the year around the lower end of guidance. We also anticipate— and this is probably the most important thing—strong cash generation from Block C during this ramp-up, with free cash flow for the year surpassing $18 million, demonstrating very strong cash flow potential. As I've said before, the real production that will be coming relatively soon lies in the higher grade Block 10. This is virgin ground with average grades of about eight, and later years there is Block 11 with grades of about 17 grams to provide another kicker. A critical path to bring Block 10 into production is getting ventilation infrastructure into the right place, which we expect to have completed by Q2 of next year. We will see that in the next slide. This will allow us to ramp up Block 10 and also to bring in Block 1, getting us comfortably over 300,000 ounces next year. Turning to the trial of the underhand drift and fill mining method, this has gone to plan. The concept is proven in the trial area, with paste strength good and curing time down to 14 days. We will continue to ramp this over the rest of this year as we establish a full-scale site in Block 8 lower. Phase 3 of our construction projects achieved 89% of overall completion by the end of Q2 2024. Dewatering has been completed to the shaft bottom, and construction has started on the dam and pump station building. The settlement of the project is expected to add another 6,000 tons per day hosting capacity for the mine. The refurbishment of the KMS shaft is on track for completion by the end of 2024, providing added flexibility—a significant benefit. At the same time, the KMVS vent shaft will allow us to ramp up volumes from Block 10. More specifically, we will be able to develop several mining fronts in Block 10, which will help optimize the significant infrastructure we will have ready, thereby surpassing the 400,000 level we have spoken about in the past. We plan to host a site visit to Obuasi ahead of next year's in Dhaba, where we will showcase the huge strides made in the infrastructure development that will enable access to mining areas and provide an expected ramp-up during the next five years of Obuasi. The full asset potential continues to yield results across the portfolio at Sunrise Dam, despite the weather challenges in year one. Underground tons in Q2 stepped back up to around 220,000 per month. Improved haulage performance was underpinned by improvements in stope availability and fleet utilization. We will sustain these levels in 2024, thereafter driving the next step changes to the focal asset performance target. We have completed all of our assets and are now starting a second wave of FAP, starting again with Sunrise, where we have already identified more than $100 million of potential benefits. The full asset potential will continue to be at the heart of our improvements in productivity and reductions in our cash cost. As I showed earlier, recoveries at Siguiri are up after interventions in Q1. We have excluded the Guinea ore from the blend, and ore is being sourced from alternative deposits, stabilizing plant performance. We will look to make low CapEx modifications to the plant, with a specific focus on management of carbon and oxygen levels. Educating continues to perform very well. We've driven improvements in drill and blasts, as well as processes to achieve better fragmentation. We’ve optimized the load and haul process for better ore delivery to the plant and sharpened our maintenance practices to achieve better overall equipment availability. At Geita, underground ore tons from Nyankanga are ahead of our full asset potential targets. We're delivering backfill directly to stopes via drills from surface rather than using trucks. This, in turn, has debottlenecked our underground materials handling capacity and improved overall stope availability. Apart from the benefits in the incremental EBITDA we've been able to generate, the true value of this program goes beyond dollars and ounces. Over the past two years, the full asset potential program has made us significantly more resilient to help offset inflation and counter the impacts of production interruptions across our portfolio. I'll tell you the same thing I tell our employees and my Board, which is that the proof is in the numbers—the proof is in the bottom line. It’s our ability to meet and sustain improvements in the bottom line that matter. Improvements in the bottom line—that's what this is: $464 million of improvements in incremental EBITDA in the past two years. Regarding the future, we have a strong pipeline of organic options. We are executing on Obuasi that will give us additional medium-term ounces. Nevada is a game-changer, and I will talk more about it now. We see the region producing as many as 500,000 ounces over a multi-year period at Tier-1 costs, and longer-term, we have a world-class copper-gold deposit in Quebradona, which gives us optionality and exposure to the energy transition. Merlin continues to deliver strong asset results, further supported by a high-grade world-class ore body. I've highlighted some of the high-grade intercepts over significant widths, which indicate our impressive ore body. The PFS program to expand Silicon is expected to be completed by mid-2025. Engineering reached the 30% completion milestone in Q2 2024, in line with the planned engineering schedule, and we will continue to provide further updates in Q3.

Gillian Doran, CFO

Thank you, Alberto, and good day, everyone. I’ll start with the macro factors. The gold price was up strongly during the first half at 14%, outpacing most major asset classes. Most encouraging is the fact that this move does not appear to be driven by a single factor and that it came despite elevated rates in the US. We saw continued healthy demand from central banks, robust investment flows in Asia, and customer demand, all against the backdrop of growing geopolitical uncertainty. As we’ve said before, we entered into zero-cost collars at the start of the year to cater for downside price risk, given the high costs and uncertainty at our Brazil operations. The contracts covered the full year of 2024, with 150,000 ounces remaining for the second half of this year. The average spot price in the first half was $2,205 an ounce, which equates to a realized loss of $118 an ounce or $23 million during the first half. Due to the strength of the US economy, inflation remains at elevated levels. Our realized inflation rate was about 6% for the first half of ’24, and this impact was partially offset by currency exchange weakness against the US dollar, most notably for AGA in the Australia and Argentina business units. As Alberto has highlighted, we achieved strong financial performance for the first half. The average gold price received was up 14% year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.12 billion was up 65% year-on-year, again well ahead of the higher price and on the back of higher ounces sold and lower operating costs. Headline earnings of $313 million or $0.74 per share compared favorably to $61 million or $0.41 per share in the first half of last year. Its improvements of more than 400% were due to the strong operational performance, offset by one-offs such as the realized hedging loss I mentioned earlier and additional closure management costs for the active closure management at both CDS and MSG. Total capital increased by 11%, which is in line with our internal plans, resulting in free cash flow of $206 million against the prior year outflow of $205 million. Free cash flow before growth capital expenditure, the metric on which dividend payment is based, was $337 million—a near fivefold increase year-on-year. Given our robust financial performance and the confidence we have in our ongoing performance for the second half, we declared an interim dividend of $0.22 per share, which equates to a payout ratio of 27%, in line with our policy minimum. We are mindful that despite the healthy gold price environment, we must remain focused on proactive cost management. This is non-negotiable for us as we continue to regain our cost competitiveness. If you look at our costs, you'll see we’ve delivered an aggregate 1% reduction year-on-year. When you unpack the detail, you can see CPI inflation was around 6% and royalties from the higher gold price added 2%, with a slight increase in fuel price, offset by currency changes of 4%, primarily in Australia and Argentina. We then normalized for one-offs, which includes last year’s impact from the tank failure in Siguiri unwinding and this year’s impact of the rainfall events in Australia. The reduction in cash cost of $44 per ounce is related to volume, grade, and costs, characterized mainly by improved operational performance through productivity improvements, better grades, and enhanced cost efficiency, particularly across Latam and in Iduapriem. The 2% year-on-year increase in ASIC followed a planned increase in sustaining capital investment, ensuring we have adequate flexibility in operations with longer leads in ore development. Our stripping targets for ore development are at least 12 months in advance and longer for stripping. On free cash flow, this chart is helpful in showing how we manage to capture and flow through the benefits of higher gold prices. The gold price drove a $318 million increase in cash receipts. The positive movement in sales volumes, operating costs, and working capital is a consequence of the discipline in operational excellence. We focus specifically on cash conversion, which has not historically been one of our strengths. We received cash inflows from Kibali in the form of loan repayments and dividends totaling $90 million. At the end of June, our share of outstanding cash balances from the DRC was $19 million, down from $51 million at the end of last year. Higher profits resulted in a $40 million increase in tax payments alongside the higher CapEx that I previously mentioned. The balance sheet remains strong with cash on hand and undrawn facilities providing very good liquidity at around $2.3 billion. Leverage is well within our target range at 0.6 times, even as we invest in our operating assets and pipeline. We have no material near-term maturities. S&P concluded their annual review in April, leaving our credit rating unchanged and stable. We continue to engage with the rating agencies to communicate the improving fundamentals of our business. Our guidance remains unchanged. At the midpoint, we anticipate production growth of about 4% this year. Cash cost per ounce is more or less flat at the midpoint, as we see more potential full potential benefits offsetting inflation and the anticipated stronger Aussie dollar. We see sustaining CapEx growing slightly as we increase investments in reserves developments, and in line with our plans, growth CapEx is also expected to increase from last year's levels as we continue to invest in our next major production center in Nevada. I’ll hand back to Alberto for his concluding remarks.

Alberto Calderon, CEO

Thank you, Gillian. When I joined this business just under three years ago, the mission was simple: to safely regain cost competitiveness, to be able to approach the multiples of our largest gold competitors. At the time, we had jumped to the top of the industry cost curve. By late 2021, new senior leadership was working alongside empowered operations and put a nuclear operating model in place. We implemented the full potential program to turn the tide. Today, we can take a step back to check how we are tracking against our original goal. With mid-2021 as the base and adjusting for US CPI only, although we have faced stronger than that, our cash costs are about 4% lower in real terms relative to an average 16% increase for the peer group. Even with the inevitable stumbles that happen in this business, we've managed to achieve guidance on our key metrics each year. In 2024, barring any unexpected events, we will do it again. We obviously have more to do, and we will always have more to do, because this is a mentality of continuous improvement. We believe we have now embedded in our business the tools that help us to do that. In conclusion, at the halfway point this year, performance has been very solid, even after the headwinds of Q1. The year-on-year comparison is strong; the simplest view shows production up and cash flows down. Cash conversion is significantly better; hence the strong gains in cash flow, earnings, and dividends. Q3 is off to a good start, pointing to an even better second half. Full potential is working as intended. Our free cash flow showed a stunning turnaround from around minus $200 million in H1 2023 to a positive plus $200 million in the first half of this year. As we look to the second half, all things being equal, with the gold price staying where it is, we anticipate free cash flow more than doubling the H1 levels. More importantly, if we go back to this half, growth in cash flows in H1 has outpaced the impact of the higher gold price on our revenues and profits. In fact, it is 30% higher. This effectively means we've been able not only to keep every penny of the gold price increase but also to surpass it, thanks to our full asset potential program. In closing, we're stronger, more competitive, and well placed to continue this improving trajectory, with our eyes on the remaining catalysts to completely close this gap. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

The first question comes from Adrian Hammond of SPG Securities. Please go ahead.

Adrian Hammond, Analyst

Thanks, operator. Good day, everyone, and thanks Alberto and Gillian for the presentation and well done on the good performance. I have a couple of questions if I may. Alberto, just your cost performance is clearly really good, and you put up that slide of a 4% reduction in real terms. So, where do you think that could end up with the asset potential program? What's more to come? And notwithstanding your peers that are having some trouble with their earnings profiles, I suspect there's some benefits coming their way. So, as you know with this business, it’s a treadmill constantly and you're trying to remain competitive. So do you think you have enough ammunition down the line to maintain a competitive position on the cost curve as you move forward? That's the first one. And then secondly, on Obuasi, you mentioned a target of 360 in Q3; when do you see that being achieved now?

Alberto Calderon, CEO

Thank you, Adrian. You're right that it is a treadmill in relative performance. Look, I can only say that we've seen how we’ve closed this year, the guidance. I can only say that when we look at Sunrise, as I mentioned, this is where we relaunched the second wave. While I don't know if surprised is the right word, we were all quite happy with the possibilities that the team found again. At some point, this will diminish. However, the possibilities on Sunrise in the second wave, as I mentioned, were about $100 million. So, I think we should still be able to continue countering inflation. If that is the case, I believe we will remain quite competitive. Again, we don't bank on this high gold price, but it is clear that the long-term gold price will probably settle around $1,800. Even at that level, we plan to have a very profitable company. But in the meantime, obviously, we want to maximize cash flows. Regarding Obuasi, we probably will assess Block 10 a bit later than we thought we would. Right now, we believe we can get to 320 on an annualized basis, but until we can access Block 10, we probably can't go higher than that. What we plan to do, Adrian, is to have this site visit in January. The good news is that the infrastructure that cost more than a billion dollars will soon be complete, providing us everything we need to produce what we stated in the past in the medium to longer term, such as 350,000 and then eventually exceeding 400,000. Ventilation is very critical, and we know we can only access a limited Block 10 until we have the full ventilation shaft working. We aimed for completion in Q2, and while we are trying to accelerate that, 2025 depends on when we can achieve that ventilation and access Block 19 effectively. Ultimately, we have no doubts about our ability to access Blocks 10, 11 and to get this mine where it needs to be, but some volatility remains in the months ahead. We are talking about being at the lower end of guidance, but still within it. We are doing everything to reach around that number for this year.

Adrian Hammond, Analyst

Thanks, that's clear. And then just for Gillian on the credit rating— it seems like it should be a bit better. You cannot think that that's up for review given your improved performance as a business, notwithstanding your operations still in the same jurisdictions, but your listing has changed. I would think your plans of exposure growing into Nevada should appease the credit rating agencies. What do you think could happen to the rating, and what benefits do you believe you should see regarding financing charges?

Gillian Doran, CFO

Thanks, Adrian. I definitely wouldn’t want to opine specifically on what the credit rating agencies might do. We are actively engaging with them, and I think they are quite positive around the consistency of performance and delivery, which is giving us positive momentum. You highlighted the jurisdictional profile of our business; the reality is that Nevada is not an operating asset at this point in time. Additionally, the rating agencies do not typically consider gold price environments, and they're not overly bullish on gold price items. So to summarize, we're pleased with the dialogue that we have—there is some positive momentum, and we are getting feedback around consistency and delivery. We'll continue to engage with them as we should, but I wouldn’t want to anticipate timing of a change at this point.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, Adrian. The next question we have comes from Leroy Mnguni of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Leroy Mnguni, Analyst

Good afternoon, Gillian and Alberto. Thanks for the opportunity. I've got two questions for Gillian. Your effective tax rate is pretty high; I think it’s about 45% when I calculated. Much higher than I had expected. Could you please unpack what is driving that? And then, generally, if I look through your numbers, you seem to have beaten or at least remained broadly in line on most of the numbers except your hits. Are there any other abnormal items included in hits or non-recurring items that we should consider when analyzing that?

Gillian Doran, CFO

Yeah, thanks, Leroy. So on the effective tax rate, our current tax rate is 32%. We do have an adjustment for deferred tax, and this provides a difference between local GAAP and IFRS accounting policy in Brazil and Argentina. It's not derived from earnings, and it pushes the tax rate up, resulting in a $75 million adjustment that is non-cash and non-earnings driven. So it’s almost one of those anomalies in the way we need to report our tax rate position. It's important to note that our effective tax rate or current tax rate is in line with the prior period at 32%. On the sort of one-offs in earnings, I mentioned the two primary ones that are one-offs: there's the hedging loss I discussed for the hedge, and we had two additions to closure provisions in Brazil: $18 million at CDS and $41 million at MSG. That impacts earnings directly as a consequence of the inactive decharacterization of those tailings facilities. We're actively monitoring them, but we believe we’ve provided as quickly as we could for closure in our accounts, as you would expect. So, we are not anticipating a change going forward, but we will continue to monitor the active closure.

Leroy Mnguni, Analyst

Alright, thank you. That's very clear. And then maybe just one question for Alberto as well if I may. It seems like at Obuasi, the underhand cut and fill testing went pretty well, and you are fairly confident that that would work as you roll it on. I recall you said in the past that it is a better mining method because you're able to be more accurate and take less weight. So I was wondering if you would consider applying underhand cuts and fill to some of the areas initially intended for sub-level stoping; is there an opportunity there at all?

Alberto Calderon, CEO

Thanks for the question. We continue to make progress and have proven this method. We believe that it will be used in areas where we find the most difficult ground conditions. For example, we are currently using it at the lowest part of Block 8. We are starting now in form, and we anticipate that part of Block 10 will be mined with this method. But we will have to get there and assess as we go along. We will provide more details regarding percentages; it's still going to be low but significant in 2025. We'll talk more about that, hopefully during your visit on-site in January of next year.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much, sir. The next question we have comes from Chris Nicholson of RMB Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Chris Nicholson, Analyst

Hi, good afternoon, good morning all. I have a couple of questions, mainly for you, Gillian. The first one is just around the dividend payments and free cash flow. You mentioned obviously that you anticipate free cash flow more than doubling in the second half. What are you planning to do with all the cash? If prices remain here, you should have scope for dividend payments to be raised even higher. So any views on that? And then second, just to confirm specifically on the hedging. With the plans coming back on in Brazil now, just to confirm, are you thinking that these were one-off type of hedging events? There is no intention to roll any hedges further into 2025 onwards at these gold prices. Thank you.

Alberto Calderon, CEO

I'll probably take that, Gillian, and you can complement me. Starting with the second question regarding the hedges: it's an exception to the rule that we don't hedge. Last year, especially after losing a significant amount in the first half in free cash flow, we wanted to ensure we would give certainty to operations at a price, and thus we went with a collar that needed to be cash neutral. I think it was the right decision to make at that time. We believed it would have been difficult to have another year of negative cash flow if prices remained steady at that level when we took the hedge. So I think it was prudent. However, yes, it was the exception. We don't plan to review or extend them, and right now we don’t see any necessity for cash before any hedging. As for the dividend, the policy hasn't changed; we still maintain a minimum of 20%, which we can go higher than. Presently, we confidently expect a significant year ahead. Hence, it is most probable we will surpass the 20% dividend for the full year. At this stage, I do not want to say we will be at a very low end of gearing, probably around 3.4 by the year-end. So we'll cross that bridge when we get there, but there's no intention right now to change any policy or anything of that sort.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, sir. The next question we have comes from Raj Ray of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Raj Ray, Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good day, Alberto and team. My first question is on your operation outlook for the second half. I mean, Q2 is a production improvement across most of your asset bases. If you look at the second half, which assets do you think present potential risks outside of Obuasi? And then coming to Obuasi, the second half even if you do like the lower end of 275 that's still almost a 50% to 60% improvement you need or what you did in the first half of the year per quarter. Any comments on how or where you stand at this point in August with respect to development rates and your ability to meet that production? And then lastly, a question for Gillian regarding the working capital movement for the first half of the year, could you comment on that? And how much of that would you expect to unwind in the second half?

Alberto Calderon, CEO

Look, all operations present an interesting sort of inertia on both positive and negative sides. Right now, we have positive inertia throughout all of our operations in Siguiri, in Sunrise, and in Tropicana. Brazil is doing well, so I think that underpins our confidence in guiding toward the middle of the range in terms of production. Regarding Obuasi, I mentioned we did annualize 300 in June, and we're going to surpass that in August. We know the grades, and I talked about a grade of about 7.9 in June while the average grade for the first half was 5.6. We see a significant uplift in production in the second half. It remains uncertain whether we will see numbers like 60 or 70 or whether it will be 150 or 170. As we see the levels in June and August aligning with the lower end of guidance, we are confident about it. The most important factor for the future is a level—about 100,000 tons of ore per month when we have all infrastructure ready. This level corresponds to the average grades of Blocks 10 and 11, which ultimately lead to a higher ounces per month. Regarding any volatility in the short run, we expect to see significantly better results in the second half.

Gillian Doran, CFO

Thanks, Raj, for your question. I think regarding working capital, we're not anticipating any unwind—what we did in the first half was reduce inventory. So we basically held all on the ground and in-process material. We also had a reduction in receivables because we didn't have the concentrate data that we did have in the first half of last year from Brazil, as you’ll probably recall. We anticipate maintaining that discipline around inventory and debtors. On the A/R, we saw further opportunities for inflow reduction tables in the first half. We're working with our Supply Chain leads and our treasury team to optimize the payables book. A long way of saying we want to remain stable, albeit Alberto wants to optimize further, as well, but definitely no unwind for the second half.

Raj Ray, Analyst

Okay, Gillian. And then can you—I didn't see the number on the cash flow statement—what was the working capital movement for the first half?

Gillian Doran, CFO

So the movement year on year was a positive $46 million on the free cash flow reconciliation. The actual movement was a $160 million change in working capital year-on-year.

Raj Ray, Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

I have a couple of housekeeping items. I just wanted to know where we stand on that Ghana joint venture. Is that happening anytime soon? Or where are we on that? I also noticed you mentioned Quebradona; I've heard about this asset for a while. So what's changed there?

Alberto Calderon, CEO

Okay, so the JV; I would probably say that I am more optimistic now than I was last quarter. We're keen and very aligned with Gold Fields, and I think we've made considerable progress with the government. There are still some processes to go. We're still in the middle of negotiations, so I wouldn't want to comment on any detail, but there is a much more positive outlook for the JV to happen than I would have had three months ago. As for Quebradona, we continue to progress on the optimal feasibility study and measuring the waters, etc. However, the current government is probably not very favorable towards oil, coal, or any type of mining. So we expect to continue those negotiations for licenses in about two years, while we make progress on the optimal feasibility study. This is a very promising project, but as we stated in the presentation, it is a longer-term option.

Gillian Doran, CFO

Just on US GAAP, am I still thinking we're 12 to 18 months out from adopting US GAAP? Thanks, Tanya. We are now set up to report our full financials quarterly under IFRS from now. So Q3 will have the same level of disclosure as you can see here in Q2 and ongoing. We reconfirmed our domestic filer status under SEC rules this June. This means the next test will be 30th June 2025. Our plan is to go live with US GAAP from 1st January 2026. If we find ourselves following foreign filer status next year, we would adapt to that; currently, you can consider January 1, 2026, for US GAAP. AngloGold Ashanti reported under US GAAP 13 years ago, so re-reporting requires reconciling the balance sheets from that 13 years ago to today. It’s a significant effort, and our team is actively working on this now.

Operator, Operator

The last question we have on the conference call is a follow-up from Leroy Mnguni. Please go ahead, sir.

Leroy Mnguni, Analyst

Apologies for that. Thanks for the opportunity. Alberto, I just wanted to follow up on comments you made when you spoke about the quarterly results in May. The first one I remember was about CDS; there was a potential buyer that seemed interested, and you thought they were a responsible operator and a good candidate. Has anything come of that? And then Sierra Grande, you hinted towards not really having a future in your portfolio. But I guess in a higher gold price environment, have your views on that asset changed at all?

Alberto Calderon, CEO

In CDS, we continue to talk with that interested party. So that dialogue is ongoing. As for Sierra Grande, even the world changes when you have a cash-producing asset. The team has done a fabulous job focusing on the things that matter. The significant changes we've noted are in the grade and costs, which is why it remains a positive free cash flow operation in the first half. However, there is no urgent need to sell. It’s of a scale that is probably worth more with somebody else than with us. There's nothing active on selling it, but if we received a reasonable offer, we would contemplate it. We are still working to ensure there are no significant liabilities, especially in terms of environmental issues or outstanding decharacterization of tailings facilities. We want to make sure we complete these ourselves before considering a sale. So, in a nutshell, we’re satisfied with it now. There's no urgent issue, and it's generating cash. The team is doing an excellent job.

Stewart Bailey, Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Leroy. Alberto, we've got some questions from the webcast now, just a rapid-fire round. We've covered a lot of them in the other answers, but if I might just start by saying, given the elevated performance, how far do you estimate AngloGold Ashanti may be from catching up with the valuations of its North American peers?

Alberto Calderon, CEO

We always knew, just because of precedent, regarding what happened particularly with Anglo American and others, it takes time— two or three years—for each rating to catch up. The reason for this is that you need to access a reasonable percentage of the gold capital today; they are underrepresented, and this will take time. What’s encouraging is if you look at our performance over the last three years, we have likely outperformed others such as Gold Fields. So I think we're beginning to bring valuations closer to our peers. Of course, there is still a gap to close in indicators such as EBIT to EBITDA, and I believe it will take time. The interest from the US and Canadian markets in our company is significant; we're very busy post-results with meetings, and the interest is indeed there.

Stewart Bailey, Head of Investor Relations

Alberto, just a quick follow-on from Martin. He asks, given the elevated performance, what do you find most effective in lowering costs? Are you still confident you can do more?

Alberto Calderon, CEO

One area in which we are starting to do more is in supply. This is now an important part of the full asset potential. We already started with—we’re very happy with an excellent negotiation we conducted with explosives, where we now have a long-term contract with a globally leading explosives company. This win-win arrangement allows for much more transparent pricing. With that contract, we were able to revert to pricing levels of 2021. If you recall, in 2022-23, inflation on ammonia and fuel reached drastic heights. However, one issue with mining services is that, without careful management, prices never reduce. This is why we are focusing on supply to further lower costs. Additionally, we have been able to produce more ounces without increasing the costs, thereby reducing real cash costs per ounce.

Stewart Bailey, Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Alberto.

Alberto Calderon, CEO

Thank you.

Stewart Bailey, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you all. Cheers. Bye. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that then concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.