Earnings Call Transcript - AU Q4 2020

Operator, Operator

Good afternoon, everybody, and for those joining us from North America, good morning, and welcome to AngloGold Ashanti's Full Year Results for 2020. We have a busy lineup today with various members of our executive team talking us through the results. Before we get there, I would like to direct you to the Safe Harbor statement in the presentation. It has important information regarding forward-looking statements that may be made during this conference call. It's important information, and I do urge you to read it. Without further ado, I'm going to hand over to Christine to talk us through an overview.

Christine Ramon, CFO

Thanks, Stewart. As always, we'll start with a look at our safety performance. As we previously reported, we had 6 fatalities, all in the year through to July, with 4 at our South Africa operations, which have now been sold, and 2 in Ghana at Obuasi. Our efforts are aimed squarely at eliminating all injuries and especially fatal accidents from our operations. This year, we'll be implementing an updated safety strategy across our business, with a particular focus on the critical controls needed to eliminate what we call high-consequence, low-frequency events. We continue to invest considerable resources in understanding the root causes of all accidents and also high-potential incidents or near misses in order to prevent recurrences. Aside from those leading indicators of accidents, there's also value in looking at lagging indicators like the all-injury frequency rate, which ended last year at its lowest level ever, 2.39 injuries per million hours worked. That fell to 1.68 for our existing portfolio of assets without the South African assets included. That's well below the ICMM member average. It's also a strong indicator of the strength of our safety culture and the effectiveness of our systems and provides us a good foundation from which to continue working to realize our ultimate goal of zero harm. A quick look at COVID-19, and our emphasis remains on safely ensuring business continuity as we navigate through the pandemic. We continue to work hand in glove with authorities and local communities in each of our operating jurisdictions, providing not only healthcare support where needed, but also assistance in other areas that are feeling considerable strain from the pandemic. This year, we'll likely require support in the vaccination drive across our sites, and we're looking at several ways in which we can aid governments' efforts to safely and effectively roll out vaccines to our employees, their families, and our host communities. Still, we saw an impact on the business from a production and cost perspective, which Ian will talk to in a moment, and with respect to considerable complexity in moving people around to our sites. We continue to rely on strict adherence to our COVID-19 protocols as the best way for our employees to stay safe. As we look at 2020 from a strategic perspective, we had a strong year. In summary, we met guidance for the eighth consecutive year, showing constancy and reliability. We streamlined the portfolio by exiting operations in Mali and South Africa to focus on higher-return, longer-life opportunities. We progressed the construction of Obuasi Phase 2 to 90% at the end of last year and advanced our greenfield projects in Colombia. We vastly improved returns to shareholders and extended the average reserve life of our portfolio. Let's look at some of those highlights in more detail. The financial performance of the business was especially strong, highlighting our full exposure to a buoyant gold price. Margins were up strongly, and we produced a little over 3 million ounces. We generated $1 billion in headline earnings, around 3 times the level last year. Free cash flow before growth CapEx, the measure on which we calculate dividends, also came in at just over $1 billion. To be clear, that would have been considerably higher if not for the cash lockup challenges we faced in the DRC and the Tanzanian VAT receivable. We'll talk to those more shortly. We've declared a dividend more than 5 times higher than last year's payout at around $200 million in total. That was helped by the stronger cash flow and a more competitive dividend policy. We've achieved those returns and kept all our projects funded and on track without any equity funding top up. That's the tenth year in a row we've kept that record and it's one we plan to maintain with a balance sheet that continues to go from strength to strength. Net debt dropped to its lowest level in a decade. Leverage ended the year close to zero and well below our target of 1 time through the cycle. And of course, the investment in reserve conversion and life extension got off to a very strong start. Ore reserves grew by 6.1 million ounces on a gross basis, which more than offset our depletion and extended the reserve life of the portfolio to 11 years. We are tracking close to the target of Obuasi Phase 2 construction at the end of this quarter. And while still targeting ramp up to 4,000 tonnes a day in quarter 2, the impact of the pandemic may cause the tight schedule to overflow into quarter 3, and Graham will elaborate on Obuasi a little later.

Ian Kramer, CFO

Thanks, Christine, and good day, everyone. As you've heard from Christine, we have delivered a solid operational and financial performance for the year with our key metrics reflecting continued focus on operational efficiencies and capital discipline. This is the last period for which we will report results inclusive of the South African assets as the sale to Harmony successfully concluded at the end of the third quarter of 2020. Harmony took control of these assets effective October 1, 2020. Despite the accounting treatment of these assets as discontinued operations, I will discuss the performance of the Group as a whole to particularly make the operational comparisons easier. Our detailed results announcement contains sufficient information on continuing and discontinued operations separately, and I would refer you to that further information. Production of 3.047 million ounces for the year includes South African production of 241,000 ounces for the 9 months through to September. In terms of the continuing business, production for the year was 2% or 56,000 ounces lower. The sale of the Sadiola and Morila operations concluded on 30 December and 11 November, respectively, and this further assisted us with the streamlining of our portfolio. Performance for the year was underpinned by a record year at Geita of 623,000 ounces, which is its highest level of production since AngloGold Ashanti took full ownership of that operation. Geita has now surpassed 10 million ounces produced since it has commenced production in the late 1990s. Geita was supported by steady performances at Kibali, Iduapriem, Siguiri, Sunrise Dam, and AGA Mineração, which offset reductions at Tropicana, Cerro Vanguardia, and Serra Grande. Obuasi continued to ramp up and produce 127,000 ounces during the year despite COVID-19 challenges. Commercial production was achieved for Phase 1 of the redevelopment project at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2020. Adjusted EBITDA increased 50% year-on-year to $2.593 billion from $1.723 billion on the back of a 27% increase in the gold price received for the year. Total capital expenditure at $792 million is 3% lower year-on-year with sustaining capital at $532 million, 8% higher than the prior year, reflective of the additional spend on ore reserve development, exploration and deferred stripping in terms of our reinvestment strategy to create improved mining flexibility and ore body confidence. Growth capital of $260 million was 19% lower than 2019, with the Obuasi project having passed the peak expenditure phase as well as an element of growth capital rollover into 2021. This is due to challenges experienced as a result of COVID-19 impacts relating to specialist skill shortages and ongoing travel restrictions. Free cash flow for the year of $743 million was the highest level generated since 2011, aided by the improved gold price, however, partly offset by lower gold output, higher taxes and royalties, and unfavorable working capital movements relating to inventories, export duties at Cerro Vanguardia and VAT at Geita. The movement in inventories relates mainly to a strategic decision by management to increase consumable stores and reagents levels, specifically at our African operations, in order to mitigate for potential supply chain disruptions, which may result from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and to assist in the ramping up at the Obuasi operation. While we received cash receipts of $140 million from Kibali during the year or $49 million received in the fourth quarter, free cash flow continues to be impacted by the slow repatriation of cash from the DRC with attributable share of the cash awaiting repatriation at the end of the year amounting to $424 million. Despite the above, our free cash flow generation for 2020 was more than the previous 5 financial years in aggregate. Free cash flow pre-growth capital, which is our dividend metric, rose to over $1 billion at the $11 billion level and in line with the revised dividend payout ratio of 20%. The Board approved a fivefold increase in the dividend distribution to $201 million. This reflects an appropriate balance in our capital allocation discipline, demonstrating our ability to balance the competing capital needs of the business while delivering improved value to shareholders.

Sicelo Ntuli, COO

Thanks, Ian, and greetings, everyone. Let's take a look at the African operations. As the region continues to reap the benefits of the operational excellence drive and efficiency improvements, we delivered another strong production and cost performance, with gold production increasing by 4% year-on-year to 1.6 million ounces at a total cash cost of $757 an ounce for the year compared to 1.54 million ounces at $759 an ounce during the prior period. The region's all-in sustaining cost was $935 an ounce for the year compared to $896 an ounce for 2019. This 4% increase was largely driven by higher royalties and COVID-related costs. The region generated free cash flow of $648 million for the year compared to $232 million during the previous year. This is the highest free cash flow generation in the region for a single year. Going into a little bit more detail on each asset. In Tanzania, Geita produced 316,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $722 an ounce for the second half of 2020 compared to 361,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $594 an ounce for the second half of 2019. The decrease in 2020 production was due to the rescheduled SAG relining and the planned ball mill relining and inspection, which resulted in lower tonnes treated. Total cash costs were higher for the period, driven by lower production, utilization of stockpiles, and higher royalties. For the year, Geita delivered an exceptional performance, achieving 623,000 ounces of production, the third highest since commissioning in 2000, at a total cash cost of $641 an ounce for the year compared to 604,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $695 an ounce in the prior year. Tonnes treated were 4% higher due to stable plant operations. Lower total cash costs were driven by a buildup of ore stockpiles and a decrease in fuel costs, partly offset by higher royalties due to the higher gold price. In the DRC, Kibali contributed production of 183,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $663 an ounce for the second half of the year compared to 178,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $605 an ounce for the same period in 2019. This represented a 2% year-on-year production increase, mainly due to an increase in plant throughput. The total cash cost increases in the second half of the year were due to changes in ore stockpiles and higher royalties. For the year, Kibali delivered attributable production of 364,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $629 an ounce compared to 366,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $572 an ounce in 2019. The cash costs increased due to higher operational costs, stockpile utilization, and increased royalties. In Ghana, Iduapriem production for the 6 months ended December 2020 came in at 138,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $719 an ounce compared to 139,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $895 an ounce in the second half of 2019. Iduapriem matched its 2019 production record and produced 275,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $731 an ounce for the year compared to 275,000 ounces at a total cash cost of $815 an ounce in 2019. The 10% decrease in total cash cost resulted from capitalization of pre-stripping mining costs at Teberebie Cut 2. This was partly offset by increased royalties as a result of higher gold price received and lower stockpile addition in 2020. Obuasi entered Phase 1 commercial production in Q4, ending the year with total capitalized and operational production of 127,000 ounces.

Graham Ehm, COO

Thank you, Ludwig. Today, I'll provide an update on Obuasi. Following the first gold pour in December 2019, the mine ramped up to the Phase 1 capacity of 2,000 tonnes per day. Gold production for the year was 127,000 ounces, close to the 130,000 ounces foreshadowed last quarter. Quarter 4 2020 was the first quarter of commercial production and with 30,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,316 an ounce. Gold production was curtailed by a 22-day tie-in shutdown for Phase 2 construction. The Phase 2 to achieve an install capacity of 4,000 tonnes per day was 90% complete at the end of the year. We are still on schedule to commission the Phase 2 mills and associated infrastructure in quarter 1 this year. The mills have been run successfully for extended periods. The KRS shaft and conveyor systems have been commissioned. We are now commissioning the first ore passes and sizing systems. The remainder of the underground infrastructure will be completed by midyear. This includes the second underground ore passes and tips, the GCVS vent shaft and fans and the paste fill. Ramping up mining is progressing somewhat slower than we planned due to COVID-related issues. While developed stocks and drilled stocks are healthy, the second COVID wave that hit Ghana and Obuasi in early January is impacting production. Our priority is to look after our people. Our strict COVID protocols remain in place, and the on-site testing facility is helping us manage the situation. Nevertheless, our testing and contact tracing systems have seen key operators placed in quarantine. This peaked with approximately 100 key people being in quarantine, many of whom are our key operators and supervisors. Australia's tightened travel restrictions have not helped with crew rotations for expatriates. We are addressing this issue by prioritizing operating development in the short term, focusing on ore haulage and hoisting through the shaft. We are also expediting training and recruitment of experienced operators and supervisors within Africa. We are still targeting ramp-up to 4,000 tonnes a day in the second quarter, but this may extend into the third quarter. Certainly, this has an impact now but the overall project is looking good. Capital is under control. Geology is looking promising, as evidenced by the increase in reserves and good reconciliations. Plant metallurgy is also achieving throughput and recovery targets. Fundamentally, the project is shaping up as planned except for the COVID impacts of the past year. These photos illustrate our progress on Phase 2. Commissioning of the SAG and ball mills has been successfully completed. The flotation, flash flotation, and BIOX circuits are running well. This will further lift when gravity, flash flotation, and regrind circuits are brought online. The KRS shaft and winder refurbishment have been completed and commissioned. The paste plant is completed. All that remains is the installation of the transfer pumps to move paste to the new paste delivery collar positions. In summary, the redevelopment has addressed all the legacy issues of the past. We are on the final lap of the redevelopment. The pandemic is presenting challenges, but the team is focused and determined to deliver what has been promised.

Tim Thompson, VP of Exploration

Thank you, Graham. 2020 was one of the best recent years for ore reserve addition by the company and across the portfolio. It shows the potential being unlocked by the strategic investment being made into drilling and ore reserve development directly linking back to delivering reserve life extension. Our mine site exploration drilling topped 1 million meters for the year. This was a 27% increase achieved compared to the prior year, and we have more than doubled the levels that we were achieving 5 or 6 years ago. We plan to continue this level of increased strategic investment in our mine sites for the next 2 years to ensure that they have better operational flexibility to deliver planned production and to support our discovery process to be able to maintain ore reserve replacement and uncover further opportunities for reserve life growth. Strong ore reserve gains are made possible on a year-to-year basis because of the reliability of the mineral resource to ore reserve conversion process we have in place at our mine sites that's backed by a long history of demonstrated success.

Christine Ramon, CFO

Thanks, Tim. Ian has been through the guidance in detail, but let's take a high-level view of the next 5 years. We see an average 5% compound annual growth in production. Over the next 4 years, the gains come from brownfields options in our existing portfolio. Obuasi makes big additions in the first 2 years, while Australia and Brazil and Africa operations each make valuable contributions through the period. In years 4 and 5, Colombia kicks in. Over the same period, we see costs improving. Some of that relates to TSF compliance spend in Brazil coming to an end. We will also complete stripping programs at Tropicana and Iduapriem. There's also the tapering off of the intensive investment in ore reserve development. So whilst we see an increase in all-in sustaining costs in the short term, we believe that bringing in ounces at a competitive cost into our current operating sites is the highest return capital we can spend. The added benefit is the longer valuation runway for the assets as we start to stretch their lives out further ahead of them. We see this with the additional 1.4 million ounces at Geita, and we'll have many more examples like it in the years ahead. In short, we're proving the short life skeptics wrong. And after years of rationalizing our portfolio and selling and closing mines, we finally have a clear and credible path back to disciplined, high-return, and low-risk growth. We have our work cut out for us. Keeping our people safe and well and supporting our communities through this incredibly difficult time is at the top of our priorities. That includes finding innovative and effective ways to help our host governments in their vaccination efforts so we can work together to find a return to a more normal way of life. That’s good for everyone and good for our business. We have 2 excellent projects in Colombia wrapping up feasibility studies, after which they'll come to our Board for approval. That process takes a clear outlook at the best, most cost-effective, and low-risk mode of execution. Obuasi is tantalizingly close to completion, but we need to manage our way to the full ramp-up carefully. This is a high-margin, multi-decade asset, and we won't compromise that future. And we need to drive our exploration program forward to build on the strong momentum we've created in reserve conversion this past year. Keeping our eye on the costs, especially as our capital edges higher in the next 2 years, we will be operating better. And working patiently to secure the release of our cash from the DRC and to restart VAT offsets in Tanzania are absolute priorities to ensure those assets are fairly valued by the market.

Operator, Operator

Shilan Modi from UBS.

Shilan Modi, Analyst

I have a few questions. Regarding ore reserve development, you mentioned a cash spending plan for the next couple of years. Why not make this an ongoing process to ensure continuous spending throughout the cycle? What are your thoughts on that? Do you have specific production guidance for Obuasi for 2021? I noticed you provided long-term guidance, but there is nothing for 2021. Also, concerning your planning assumption of $1,400 an ounce, what cash flow margin do you anticipate at that price? Lastly, could you provide some guidance on the cash lockups at Kibali and Tanzania?

Christine Ramon, CFO

Thanks for those questions, Shilan. I think quite importantly, when it comes to ore reserve development, we do have a continuous budget through the cycle. What we did last year is we did up that budget by about $30 an ounce. And I think certainly, you can clearly see the benefits of that coming through with the additional reserves that we've declared. I think going forward, for the next 2 years, we've had to bump up some of that ore reserve development. And like you say, it's also driven by where our assets are in their lives and what the requirements are. But I think certainly even beyond the bump up that you see in the next 2 years, you will see a continuous budget for ore reserve development as we go forward. I think, Ian, in particular, will unpack some of the details relating to the SIB spend. So in addition to ore reserve development, there's also deferred stripping and the TSF compliance capital that does actually impact our SIB guidance specifically for the next 2 years. And from 2023, you see the more normalized sort of SIB spend that will come through.

Graham Ehm, COO

Thanks, Christine. Overall for the year, a reasonable way to think of Obuasi is the ramp-up through quarter 2, quarter 3, leading to steady state in quarter 4. We expect the overall annual production to be around 250 to 300 depending on how that progresses. So certainly lower in the first half and rising in the second half.

Ian Kramer, CFO

I can address the stay-in-business question. This year’s increase, as Christine mentioned, involves a few factors. The compliance for Brazil tailings storage facilities and the additional infrastructure spending for tailings storage at Iduapriem and Tropicana amounts to roughly $30 to $40 per ounce, which is reflected in the SIB dollar per ounce figure and will also roll into the all-in sustaining cost. Regarding additional deferred stripping, particularly at Tropicana and Iduapriem, we expect a margin of about $15 to $25 per ounce. Additionally, for our exploration initiatives as part of our targeted reinvestment strategy, we're looking at an investment of approximately $10 to $20 per ounce.

Patrick Mann, Analyst

I wanted to ask about Colombia. These 2 projects are obviously coming together in short order. How do you think about that both from a balance sheet perspective and also just kind of concentration approving 2 greenfield projects or big greenfield projects in one jurisdiction? So it's $2 billion that's coming pretty much at the same time and in the same place. Does that affect the way you think about the project at all?

Christine Ramon, CFO

Thank you, Patrick. That's an important question. First, I want to discuss our balance sheet. It's crucial to note that we have ample room in our balance sheet to finance both projects. We are particularly focused on financial risk mitigation related to the Quebradona project, which will involve various measures such as offtake agreements and project financing. We are also considering other options. However, rest assured that our balance sheet is well-prepared to support the funding of these projects through internal cash flow and our available facilities.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Sir, do we have any questions from the webcast?