Earnings Call Transcript - AUR Q1 2026

Operator, Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Aurora First Quarter 2026 Business Review Call. Operator provided instructions. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Stacy Feit, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Stacy Feit, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks, Paul. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter 2026 business review call. We announced our results earlier this afternoon. Our shareholder letter and a presentation to accompany this call are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.aurora.tech. The shareholder letter was also furnished with our Form 8-K filed today with the SEC. On the call with me today are Chris Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO; and David Maday, CFO. Chris will provide an update on the progress we have made across the key pillars of our business, and David will recap our first quarter financial results. We will then open the call to Q&A. A recording of this conference call will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.aurora.tech shortly after this call has ended. I'd like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the call, we will be making forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed, projected or implied during this call. In particular, those described in our risk factors included in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and other documents filed with the SEC as well as the current uncertainty and unpredictability in our business, the markets and economy. Additional information will also be set forth in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. You should not rely on our forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. All forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions and beliefs as of the date hereof, and Aurora disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by law. Our discussion today may include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or in isolation from our GAAP results. Information regarding our non-GAAP financial results, including a reconciliation of our historical GAAP to non-GAAP results, may be found in our shareholder letter, which was furnished with our Form 8-K filed today with the SEC and may also be found on our Investor Relations website. Our discussion today may also include reference to forward-looking free cash flow, a non-GAAP financial measure. To the extent that these forward-looking financial measures are provided, they are presented on a non-GAAP basis without a reconciliation due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying certain amounts that are necessary for such reconciliation. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Chris.

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Thanks, Stacy. 2026 is the year Aurora begins to scale. Our strategic investments are fueling the momentum necessary to accelerate our growth and extend our lead in the autonomous trucking market. The start of this year has been a period of disciplined transition—a deliberate buildup before the inflection. Drawing on our deep experience, we are safely integrating the Aurora Driver across multiple platforms. We're on the cusp of launching our second-generation commercial hardware kit on a new fleet of driverless trucks. This program positions us to exit the year with over 200 driverless trucks in operation across the Sunbelt and supports our broader scaling ambitions in 2027 and beyond. In preparation for this imminent launch, our forthcoming software release and commercial hardware kit are engineered specifically to deliver the reliability required as we scale our fleet. This progress is driving significant commercial momentum. In addition to the Transportation as a Service commitments we already have in place with Hirschbach, we announced last week that they have selected Aurora to scale their autonomous fleet with intent to own and operate 500 trucks through our Driver-as-a-Service business model. We expect to finalize the definitive agreement, which represents a potential multiyear revenue stream in the hundreds of millions of dollars later this year with truck delivery slated to begin in 2027. As we prepare to scale, we're seeing continued regulatory momentum with landmark progress at the state level. California has reached a watershed moment, joining the vast majority of states in enabling autonomous trucking. We now project a serviceable, addressable market of 60 billion vehicle miles traveled by 2028. And excitingly, California supports a seamless coast-to-coast operating environment. With the Aurora Driver now sufficiently generalized for us to begin scaling across the Sunbelt aligned with customer demand, we strategically focused our resources on three key initiatives: expanding our driverless network, finalizing our latest software release and validating our second-generation commercial hardware kit. These efforts serve as the critical final steps in preparing for the imminent launch of our new driverless truck fleet, transitioning Aurora from a phase of localized operations to one of wide-scale industrial deployment. Our expansion is progressing at an accelerated pace with our network now encompassing 12 distinct routes. At the end of March, we validated driverless operations on the bidirectional route between Dallas and Laredo within just six weeks of initiating supervised autonomous runs. Building on this momentum, we also opened new bidirectional routes between Dallas and Oklahoma City. In collaboration with Volvo Autonomous Solutions, we have started supervised autonomous deliveries on this route to support one of their key customers. Furthermore, we've expanded our driverless cohort to seven customers, including transitioning commercial loads with McLane to driverless operations. Our forthcoming software release further increases the Aurora Driver's reliability in preparation for scaling, including validation of driverless operations in more severe rain as well as the full spectrum of complex construction scenarios on our highway routes. To complement these advancements, we are augmenting our driverless network to support real-time dynamic rerouting, providing the operational agility required for high-volume commercial service. We're also in the process of validating our second-generation commercial hardware kit on multiple truck platforms through rigorous on-road, track and lab testing to prepare for our planned second quarter launch and are seeing impressive performance. Designed for one million miles of operation and with enhanced sensor cleaning capabilities, this kit meaningfully increases the Aurora Driver's reliability. It also brings exciting performance gains including a more efficient computer and an extended one-kilometer range for FirstLight, our proprietary long-range FMCW lidar. This is double the range of the closest FMCW lidar competitor and can give the Aurora Driver more than 34 seconds to react when at highway speeds, setting a new superhuman standard for safety. And importantly, we expect this kit to drive a 50-plus percent reduction in Aurora Driver hardware costs, a key lever supporting our breakeven gross margin target. While advancing on these fronts, in April, the Aurora Driver surpassed 370,000 driverless miles with 100% on-time performance and zero Aurora Driver-attributed collisions. Notably, this growth was driven by a very strong utilization with a leaner active fleet. For example, the driverless trucks we are operating for Werner are already averaging 4,000-plus miles per week, which translates to an annual run rate of 225,000-plus miles per truck. With the performance we're seeing, we expect Aurora Driver-powered trucks will be capable of more than doubling utilization and, in turn, revenue per truck for our customers. Expanding driverless delivery to and from customers' facilities will further strengthen the Aurora Driver's value proposition. We're continuing to ready Hirschbach, Detmar and Werner for endpoint operations, including in-yard autonomous operations at their facilities. We currently expect to generate a majority of our 2026 revenue through operations between customer facilities, reflecting our continued focus on increasing commercial value. To ensure seamless end-to-end service, we recently began supervised testing of way station navigation and on-route fueling at truck stops. Navigating these environments requires many of the same advanced surface street capabilities we have already refined. For example, on the seven-mile route, the Aurora Driver navigates to and from the highway in Houston. The video on Page 8 of our presentation demonstrates the Aurora Driver's proficiency in these complex low-speed settings. To meet customer demand and support our path to scale, we've established a robust hardware and vehicle platform roadmap. We're closing in on the second quarter launch of our second-generation commercial hardware kit on a new fleet of trucks based on the International LT series that will enable driverless operations without an observer. With this program, we have a strong line of sight to achieving our 2026 scaling goals. We expect this to establish a powerful foundation for 2027 when we plan to launch our Driver-as-a-Service business model. Looking ahead to 2027, we've made exciting progress on our third-generation commercial hardware kit that will be manufactured by AUMOVIO. Together, we started testing initial units. Our engineering team is also working with AUMOVIO and NVIDIA to develop a first-of-its-kind Super Thor compute configuration—an architecture that integrates two NVIDIA DRIVE for SoCs into a unified platform optimized to power the Aurora Driver at scale. This approach demonstrates our three-way collaboration is setting the standard for industrializing autonomous technology. In March, AUMOVIO broke ground on the expansion of their Brownfields, Texas facility where they will produce our third-generation hardware kit intended to supply tens of thousands of trucks. Construction of the plant's expansion is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2027, with start of production for the hardware kits on track to begin in the second half of 2027. Volvo plans to build hundreds of the Volvo VNL autonomous trucks in 2027 and has already completed several Aurora Driver-powered trucks on their pilot line. For the program based on the International LT truck, our upfitter, Roush, will begin scale production later this year. We're initially establishing the capacity to produce 1,000 trucks per year with potential to increase that capacity. Concurrently, PACCAR and Aurora are jointly defining the path to scalable launch on the third-generation Aurora Driver commercial hardware kit integrated with PACCAR's future autonomy-enabled platform. All of this work is forging the industrial engine that extends our leadership position and supports commercial deployment at significant scale. At Aurora, we're building a safer, stronger and more resilient freight ecosystem with our technology for the people who power it. To back this vision, we recently announced Aurora Works—our commitment to invest in workforce development by establishing educational partnerships and technical training for emerging roles in autonomous trucking. We're at the center of a new era of logistics that improves road safety, fuels economic growth and creates new high-skilled American jobs. Autonomous freight represents a step change for what is possible in global logistics. The Aurora Driver moves the industry beyond traditional constraints toward a world of continuous high-utilization delivery. With a clear roadmap, deep partnerships and an accelerating industrial engine, we are well positioned to lead this evolution. The future of freight is on the road and Aurora is setting the pace. With that, I'll now pass it over to Dave, who will review our financial results.

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Chris. Now let's review our financial results for which we have provided a summary on Page 15 of the slide deck for reference. First quarter 2026 revenue totaled $1 million across driverless and vehicle operator-supervised commercial loads. Despite leveraging our shared fleet for continued development of new routes and validation of our second-generation commercial hardware kit, the Aurora Driver achieved another record number of commercial miles during the quarter which drove a 10% sequential increase in revenue from the fourth quarter of 2025. First quarter operating loss, including stock-based compensation, totaled $244 million. Excluding stock-based compensation of $46 million, R&D totaled $159 million, SG&A was $34 million, and cost of revenue was $6 million. We used approximately $159 million in operating cash during the first quarter of 2026, and capital expenditures totaled $25 million. As planned, this cash spend was below our externally communicated quarterly average target. We expect the second quarter cash spend to be above the target range due to the timing of our cash bonus payout which, as we discussed last quarter, we plan to fund with our at-the-market program. We ended the quarter with a very strong balance sheet, including liquidity of nearly $1.3 billion in cash and short-term and long-term investments. During the first quarter, we generated net proceeds of $14 million from the issuance of Class A common stock through our at-the-market program which we used to fund the tax liability associated with vesting of employee restricted stock units during the quarter. We continue to expect 2026 revenue of $14 million to $16 million—up 400% year-over-year at the midpoint. Revenue will be back-end loaded with the fourth quarter projected to contribute over half of full year revenue as we scale driverless operations following the launch of our new fleet. We anticipate exiting the year with more than 200 driverless trucks in operation, which translates to approximately $80 million in revenue on a run-rate basis for our Transportation-as-a-Service business. This establishes a powerful foundation for 2027 when we expect the core Driver-as-a-Service model to commence. To support our scaling plan, we continue to expect quarterly cash use of approximately $190 million to $220 million on average throughout 2026. This includes approximately $150 million in anticipated full year capital expenditures, primarily attributed to our capacity plan. We continue to expect 2026 to represent peak capital spend and capital expenditures declining significantly in 2027 as we transition to our Driver-as-a-Service model and Hardware-as-a-Service structure with AUMOVIO. Our first quarter performance reflects the focused execution and disciplined transition that will define Aurora in 2026. We continue to balance prudent resource management with the strategic investments needed to support large-scale industrial deployment. With that, we will now open the call to Q&A.

Operator, Operator

Operator provided instructions. Our first question is from George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity.

George Gianarikas, Analyst (Canaccord Genuity)

So maybe first, in light of the growing commercial momentum that you're seeing, have you seen any meaningful acceleration in inbound interest from prospective fleet partners? And also as you're beginning to scale, how are you navigating price discovery? Has there been any resistance from customers regarding the per-mile rate or is the value currently offsetting any cost concerns?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Yes. Thanks, George. I appreciate the question. We continue to have really exciting conversations with various customers. We've talked in the past about each time we got to check off progress. We see it become more real in the eyes of customers, and that leads to an increase in the conversations we have. We've got an exciting funnel and we'll share more as we can as we get through that. I don't think we can talk specifically about pricing on this. Obviously, there's a lot of competitive elements around that. But we have very fruitful conversations with folks. Of course, they want to pay nothing for it, and we'd like to charge them more for it. So every one of those conversations is, of course, a negotiation. I don't know, David, if you'd add more?

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I think the customers themselves have been giving us really good and direct feedback. At the end of the day, the value proposition that we're discussing has still resonated quite well. You're going to argue a little bit about the fringes, but the growing cost drivers are undeniable—the indirect costs associated with it. And fuel costs are really high right now. We're providing a 15% reduction on that. That translates to real dollars, roughly $0.15 to $0.16 per mile in today's marketplace. So the value proposition does resonate quite well, and we're confident that we're going to be able to grow the business and achieve our profit objectives.

George Gianarikas, Analyst (Canaccord Genuity)

And maybe as a follow-up, given your recent autonomous haul, are you encountering any technical bottlenecks as you transition from pilot to more of a consistent operational cadence? And how have your engineering teams mitigated any constraints that have been out there in the system?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Yes. There's nothing that we're seeing that's particularly surprising. It's stuff that's been in our roadmap for a while. So we're continuing to improve that. This new release that is going to land with the second-generation hardware really is about making sure that we have a robust platform that's reliable and meets customer needs, increasing the amount of rain we can handle and dealing with more complicated construction that we need to deal with on freeways. That's the kind of work that's going to set us up to be able to scale really well.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott Group, Analyst (Wolfe Research)

So a couple of things. Relative to the target of 200 trucks by the end of the year, how many are in operation today? And then separately on the Hirschbach MOU, just hoping for a little bit more color—what needs to happen to convert this from an MOU to a committed contract? And do you have any color on how many of those 500 trucks you expect to deliver in '27? And how long do you think it takes to get to the full 500?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Yes. So on the 200 trucks, when we talk about 200 trucks, we're talking about driverless trucks operating by the end of the year. Today, we're running about a handful of them. Of the vehicles that will make up those 200 trucks that are operating driverlessly, I think we own 25 of them now, and they're in various stages of upfit and preparation. So that's kind of where we stand on getting to those 200 trucks over the course of the year. We expect we're doing work in Q2 to prepare Roush to scale, and they'll really start scaling towards that 20 trucks per week production rate in Q3. With Hirschbach, I don't know there's a whole lot we can share there. We're really excited about them; they've been one of our longest-term partners and customers. And to George's question earlier about the value customers see—you don't get a company like Hirschbach signing up for an MOU unless they see real opportunity for it to complement the drivers they have in their fleet today. It's a 500-truck deal over '27 and '28 is our expectation. We expect it to turn into hundreds of millions of miles and hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue. And we expect to get to closure on that this year.

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. And Scott, one other thing on the 200 trucks, just so there's no confusion. We already have commitment and order slots for the entire 200 trucks. So there is no question about the truck availability. It's just when we bring them in to start the upfit process, and we build out our capacity plan.

Scott Group, Analyst (Wolfe Research)

Okay. Great. And then last couple of things, David, do you— I think you talked about last quarter, if you get to the $80 million run rate of revenue, that will be gross profit breakeven. Is that still the case? And then on the California front, when do you expect to start operations there?

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

Well, relative to the gross profit breakeven, that is still our target for sure. The $80 million is one element of that. There are some things that we need to do on the cost side of that equation which are equally as important, which is part of our plan. And so we're still targeting it. It's not formal guidance, but we are targeting it, and we are going to be working really hard to be able to achieve that target. I'll let Chris talk a little bit about California.

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

For California, first, we're really excited that California has taken a step forward on this. We've been in conversation with them literally for years, and we're just excited to see them put out the regulations and give us certainty on how we can start to build our business there. We don't have a set time for when we'll begin operating in California. We have to go through the permitting process with them to do that but the team is already working on that, and we'll share more when we can.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker, Analyst (Morgan Stanley)

Chris, you said in your letter that you and PACCAR are jointly defining the path to scalable launch on their assembly lines. Do you have an understanding? And if so, can you tell us kind of what this path looks like from a catalyst or a timing standpoint?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Yes. I can't share timing, of course. What I can share is that we're aligning around the third-generation platform—or hardware kit—from Aurora that we're working with AUMOVIO on. We've shared in the past that we expect that to come into production in the back half of '27. And so we continue to have conversations with PACCAR. We continue to work with them closely and look forward to offering customers who'd like to have the Aurora Driver on a Peterbilt that option.

Ravi Shanker, Analyst (Morgan Stanley)

Okay. Understood. And maybe kind of on a different topic. Obviously, truck rates appear to be going up quite meaningfully. There are some who think we may be on the cusp of a generational upcycle here. Are you seeing any increased interest from customers or carriers who may be concerned about a driver shortage? And is this an opportunity for you to maybe revise your pricing strategy? Or are you just selling this as, hey, there's more savings for your customers if they switch to autonomous in the next few years?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Yes. So I'll say that first, I'm not savvy enough to predict exactly what will happen with the market here, but it does feel like there's a lot of factors that are contributing to increased freight rates going forward. We're really focused on delivering value to our customers. We ultimately expect to get paid for that value. And so if we're contributing more value, we'll ultimately expect to be compensated for that. But right now, we're focused on making sure that the folks who've been with us as partners and customers get an opportunity to benefit from that and build their business. I don't know, Dave, anything you'd add?

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

No, I think that's right. I will say that the interest has been picking up a lot over the last six months, frankly. The number of inbounds that we're getting has been increasing dramatically. So we're very excited about that. Part of it is just we're out there and people can see and experience it more than they've ever had before. Part of it is the market is starting to have some positive signs that feel more sustainable and that has people more interested in thinking about their long term. I think from the pricing side, the one thing that I would say is we believe that the pricing at that roughly $0.85-plus range will enable us to be very successful, and it will support broad scale adoption for our customers. We look at it not so much as how would we maximize the next quarter but how we will build the plan for the next several years. We want to make sure that we have as much of that long-term focus and support for customer adoption as we can.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Christopher Pierce with Needham & Company.

Christopher Pierce, Analyst (Needham & Company)

I just want to—if you guys could shed some light. If you talked about Hirschbach, what are they seeing—are they seeing something different in terms of absolute number of miles driven? Or is it just a unique decision on their end that sort of has them pull the trigger to move from a trial to a truck order? And I guess, do you have other partners that you've been working with over time that are similar miles or that it just sort of comes down to a unique decision on their end? I just kind of want to get a sense of what helped them get over the edge.

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

I think first, it's important to recognize that there's a distribution of customers. There's going to be folks who are first movers and others who are fast followers. Hirschbach has had a lot of experience with us. Their leadership team we've been able to build trust with over time. So we're excited for them to pull the trigger. We do expect others will follow. We'll continue to demonstrate value. And frankly, right now, we're pretty supply constrained, and we look forward to unlocking that supply over the course of this year and certainly in '27 as we bring the AUMOVIO hardware kit online.

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

The other thing I would add on Hirschbach is they have been with us for quite some time. They don't look at this just as a business decision. They are really looking at this—in their words—as a quality-of-life investment for their people. This is to help support their people and get them to the routes and into a working environment that will improve their quality of life while we handle the longer-haul routes that keep drivers away for extended periods. So they've been very forward-leaning on thinking about their drivers' long-term quality of life. That's very important to them, and certainly they care a lot about their drivers.

Christopher Pierce, Analyst (Needham & Company)

Yes. Okay. And then just one for Dave. In your 'From the Desk of the CFO' you talked last time about peak CapEx. I just want to understand definitionally— I don't think of you guys as a heavy CapEx company. I think of you as a heavy R&D company. Are we saying that '27 is close to peak CapEx and CapEx comes down? I just want to make sure I'm understanding what line item on the model and what statement to look at.

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

No, I think we have said many times, we're a capital-efficient or a capital-light business. As a Transportation-as-a-Service business to start, you actually have a little more capital than what we believe will be our steady-state long-term capital. So we do expect our CapEx to go down. Our R&D investments—that's a larger percentage of our overall expenditures—will continue. We are continuing to invest in our R&D to capitalize on the lead, continue to build that advantage, and make the Aurora Driver available everywhere. So we look at R&D as more of a steady-state number for the foreseeable quarters, whereas we think CapEx will start to drop down substantially in 2027.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer & Company.

Colin Rusch, Analyst (Oppenheimer & Company)

You've done a very judicious job of waiting to scale until you guys were ready. And now as you move into this next stage of the organization, I'm just curious about how you think about pacing of the scale-up because certainly demand isn't going to be an issue, but maintaining quality as you move into these higher volumes is critical. So I just want to think about how you're managing that, how you're managing supply chain to meet those specs, and how you might end up diversifying some of the supply chain to enable a little bit more resilient supply as you go forward?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Yes. That's really aligned with our long-term strategy that we've talked about for several years. As we went from the initial vehicles that we launched trials with last year, that was hardware we had built in-house and had sourced all in-house. As we move to the second generation of hardware, we are leveraging Fabrinet—the experience they have, the quality processes they have—layering on top of that our quality and sourcing support. So we feel good about that. And then, of course, as we move to the back half of '27 when we expect the hardware kit we're developing with AUMOVIO to come to life, we're leaning into AUMOVIO and the strength they have in managing their supply chain and quality as a true scale automotive supplier. So that's how we're building the supply chain system on the hardware side. When it comes to the software that operates onboard, that's been a core part of how we've thought about this—how do we ensure that the software will generalize safely over time. It's what leads us to do as much work as we do in testing and validation. It's why we've said from day one that safety has to be first. We've ingrained that into the organization over the better part of a decade, and that leads to processes that we think will scale and ultimately drive safe and reliable outcomes for our customers.

Colin Rusch, Analyst (Oppenheimer & Company)

And then as you guys prioritize ODDs, I'm curious about how much input you're getting from your customers at this point? Or if you're at a place now where you're just really driving capabilities and then selling it to them, are there priorities that they have that can impact some of the sequencing and focus areas for you on an R&D perspective?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

That's a great question. We continue to want to learn as much as we possibly can from our partners and understand what the source of demand is and where it's most useful for them. Dave talked about Hirschbach's focus on supporting their employees and what that translates into—places that are useful for us to drive for them. So in terms of the capabilities of the driver, we do learn some from our customers, but where we need to go operate—which lanes we should be opening—that is very much driven by customer demand.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from David Vernon with Bernstein.

David Vernon, Analyst (Bernstein)

The first question for you, Dave. I noticed the language around sufficient liquidity to get to positive free cash flow in 2028 that was in the 4Q letter; it's not in the 1Q letter. Is that purposeful? Was that just—it's still on plan? Can you give a comment on the status of that cash flow breakeven by 2028?

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

Yes, it's still our plan. We believe that we have sufficient liquidity. Nothing has changed in that to get us to a positive free cash flow in 2028.

David Vernon, Analyst (Bernstein)

Okay. And then maybe the 4,000 miles per truck per week that you guys are quoting on the utilization that you're getting out of Werner—is that the right number to use in terms of a run-rate assumption to underpin the $80 million sort of half-exit run rate? And then I guess the follow-on to that would be if that turns out to be the right sort of revenue-per-mile-ish range, how does the Driver-as-a-Service thing compare? Is it half? Is it three-quarters? Anything you can give us relatively on what we should be thinking about plugging into a model around the DaaS rate would be helpful.

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

I think mileage will vary based on the customer use cases. But we're very confident in our ability to achieve double utilization, and it is going to depend on which routes they put them on and the load frequency that they have. We certainly think the 250,000-mile range is still a good target that many customers can achieve. In terms of pricing dynamics, I can't get into too many specifics comparing individual customers, but what I can tell you is the information we've shared before: anywhere from $1.50 to $2.00 a mile for TaaS plus fuel surcharge. And then on the Driver-as-a-Service, our indicative pricing is about $0.85. So again, we think that's a pretty good mix and you can do the math from there.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from John Sager with Evercore ISI.

John Sager, Analyst (Evercore ISI)

I hate to continue to dig into the numbers a little bit. But to get to sort of $15 million of revenue, so you're charging somewhere around $2 per mile. And then if I'm backing into gross margin breakeven, that means that your cost is something like $1 per mile to operate. Is that a fair way of thinking about it? I'm just trying to figure out how to track your progress with that.

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

No problem. Our cost of goods sold is the measurement that we're looking at for our gross margin. So if revenue is about $2, that's our target for our cost of goods sold. It is about $2 a mile. That will obviously change when we go to the Driver-as-a-Service model. You have to remember in our current Transportation-as-a-Service business model, it's not just the cost of being able to deploy the Aurora Driver. It's the cost of purchasing the trucks, financing the hardware and a lot of other fuel and terminal costs. So I think you'll see us really targeting roughly that $2 a mile for a breakeven target.

John Sager, Analyst (Evercore ISI)

Okay. Perfect. And then as we look out into 2027, at what point do you make that transition to the point where the customers own the trucks? And when does that start— is it all customer-by-customer? Does it happen at once? Can you give us any sense of timing? Is it a hard line or more gradual?

David Maday, Chief Financial Officer

It's not a hard line. We will start the process in 2027 and then it will be customer-by-customer specific. I would also point out that we will still have Transportation-as-a-Service trucks operating for several years, even with customers who have signed up for additional Driver-as-a-Service contracts. So we're going to continue to utilize a small fleet of Transportation-as-a-Service trucks for its life, and then we will build upon that going forward. We do expect to start in 2027, but there's no hard line of exactly when it will start. We're not making a fundamental shift that we'll only do Driver-as-a-Service going forward. It's important for our customers to experience the Aurora Driver in a scenario where they don't have to make huge investments until they've seen the product work and provide value to them.

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

That is something that will evolve over time. Today, we're the first provider of this technology in market. So there will be customer education and Transportation-as-a-Service allows us to have a low-friction way for them to get introduced and get used to it. But we do see that as customers get used to it, they will gain confidence in owning, operating and maintaining these trucks efficiently. That confidence is not core to Aurora, and we see customers excited to take that on, which we welcome.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

Mark Delaney, Analyst (Goldman Sachs)

Nice to see the improved rollouts to new locations. So thanks for all the updates on that. Chris, I was hoping to get your latest thoughts on AI technology and any new innovations that Aurora is looking at. One thing that's had more discussion in the investment and tech community recently has been world models. Curious whether it's that or other newer technologies that you're observing and anything that could be impactful for Aurora?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

We continue to pay attention to what's happening outside and we're excited about the models we're building at Aurora. We continue to be deep believers in verifiable AI—the idea that you would trust one of these giant trucks driving down the road with something where you just hope the output is the right thing given the input. It just doesn't make sense. So we continue to look for ways to bring new ideas in and fuse them with our approach to ensuring that we can deliver a safe vehicle on the road.

Mark Delaney, Analyst (Goldman Sachs)

Understood. My other question was around the planned start of operations without a driver this quarter. Maybe just speak a bit more around what still needs to happen for that to materialize? Is it additional testing and validation or anything else that may still be left in order to meet that timeline?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

Yes. It's really imminent. We're excited about the progress we're making. It's predominantly testing and validation at this point. So we're continuing to look forward to having them on the road in Q2.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter, Analyst (Bank of America)

Great. Chris and Dave, earlier you talked about some of the new routes going from Dallas to Laredo, Dallas to Oklahoma City. So for the 200 trucks by year-end, can you talk about how many total lanes would that encompass—what's the expansion target? And then how many different customers are part of that 200 trucks? Are you focused on the existing customers or do you expect new customers—new stickers—on the trucks?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

So on the customer front, we expect there to be many new stickers on the trucks by the end of the year. We want to support the folks who've been with us early on so they can benefit and grow their businesses. But we aspire to have the Aurora Driver on every truck ultimately, and we're excited to have new customers come in and grow with us. On the lanes front, it will be driven by customer interest and demand and where it makes sense for those customers to have the trucks operating. We expect it to span across the Sunbelt, but the specific lanes and lane count will be dictated by demand. We're moving in a direction where the complexity and difficulty of unlocking new lanes has come down dramatically, so we can be much more responsive to where customers want us to operate.

Ken Hoexter, Analyst (Bank of America)

Great. Makes a lot of sense. If I can get a follow-up on the routes—maybe talk about how much of that is end-to-end versus drop-and-hook yards or understanding the last mile at this point. And then on production, if you're targeting 200 or 20 trucks a week at this point by year-end, how much can that scale into '27 on both the truck manufacturing and the AUMOVIO side?

Christopher Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO

By end-to-end, we mean going from a customer site to a customer site—generally a distribution center or terminal to another distribution center or terminal. We're not talking about going to a retail storefront or restaurant. By the end of the year, we expect the miles we drive to be predominantly between customer endpoints. That's our expectation and the right way to deliver the product and create value for customers. We're already doing the work with customers today—Werner, Hirschbach and Detmar in particular—to open up their endpoints and operate robustly. On production, we're setting Roush up with the bandwidth to be able to produce 1,000 trucks a year. As we go into '27 and see demand, we can increase that scale further. We see this as complementary to programs with Volvo and PACCAR, so it's a third option alongside those two.

Ken Hoexter, Analyst (Bank of America)

Thanks a lot. Thanks for the time.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. That is all the time we have for questions today. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you again for your participation.