Earnings Call Transcript - AXIA Q4 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to AXIA Energia's conference for the discussion of the results of the fourth quarter of 2025. Present here today are Mr. Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President of AXIA Energia; Mr. Eduardo Haiama, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Antonio Varejão de Godoy, Executive Vice President of Operations and Security; Ms. Camila Araujo, Executive Vice President of Governance and Sustainability; Mr. Elio Wolff, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development; Mr. Italo Freitas, Executive Vice President of Commercialization and Energy Solutions; Mr. Juliano Dantas, Executive VP of Technology and Innovation; Mr. Marcelo de Siqueira Freitas, Executive VP of Legal Affairs; Mr. Renato Carreira, Executive VP of Learning People and Services; Mr. Robson Pinheiro De Campos, Executive VP of Expansion Engineering; and Mr. Rodrigo Limp, Executive VP of Regulation, Institutional and Markets. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and will be made available on the company's Investor Relations website along with the presentation being shared today, both in Portuguese and English. To view the presentation of the slides in your preferred language, select the corresponding tab located in the upper left corner of the screen, Portuguese screen for Portuguese or English screen for the English version. For those who require simultaneous translation, a tool is available via the globe icon labeled interpretation located at the bottom center of your screen. Upon selecting it, please choose your preferred language. For those listening to the video conference in English, there is an option to mute the original audio in Portuguese by clicking mute original audio. Before we proceed, we would like to clarify that any statements made during this conference call regarding the company's business outlook, projections, operational and financial targets, constitute the beliefs and assumptions of AXIA Energia's executive management as well as on information currently available to the company. Forward-looking statements are not a guarantee of performance as they involve risks and uncertainties and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors should understand that general economic conditions and other operational factors may affect the results expressed in such forward-looking statements. We now invite Mr. Ivan Monteiro, President of AXIA Energia to begin the presentation. Please, you may proceed.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining AXIA's conference call for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the entire year 2025. This year has been characterized by several achievements and the establishment of a foundation for the company's ongoing growth. Within our executive board, there is a consensus that the traditional turnaround is finished, and the 2026 budget reflects this conclusion. Now let's discuss our deliveries during 2025. We observed a steady decrease in liabilities as well as a reduction in compulsory loans and related liabilities, along with PMSO. I want to highlight our current contribution of artificial intelligence towards reducing PMSO; while it is still modest, there is significant potential for future improvement. We also shifted our investment levels; a company that used to invest between BRL 2.3 million to BRL 3 million annually five years ago is now on a growth path, reaching BRL 9.6 million in 2025, with projections exceeding BRL 10 million for the coming years, which we announced earlier today. Another significant achievement was our agreement with the government regarding the sale of our stake in Eletronuclear. These actions have notably diminished the perceived risks for our investors when they consider acquiring AXIA's assets, whether through shares or fixed-income investments. Another area of development relates to energy allocation, portfolio management and our customer relationships. In terms of capital allocation and growth, I’d like to mention the volume of dividends distributed this year, totaling BRL 8.3 billion, which is comparable to the nominal market value of the former Eletrobras in 2016. A key challenge in accelerating investments is developing a strong pipeline. Although we expect very low inorganic growth, this will still align with our vision for the future and the growth of our own assets that have existing environmental licenses. We understand the performance of these assets and are modernizing them through reinforcement and improvements resulting from our success in the transmission auction. We continue to explore new technologies to enhance not only asset management but also our overall operations, production relationships with customers, and our energy portfolio, particularly focusing on the modest contributions to PMSO reduction through AI. Now, regarding the more prolonged stage of cultural transformation, I want to emphasize that the change in our company name to AXIA is more than just a rebranding; it signifies a shift in mindset towards a culture of ownership and a management approach dedicated to creating and maximizing value. Lastly, reaffirming our commitment to governance, we have proposed transitioning to Novo Mercado, with meetings planned for shareholders to discuss the director's proposal. I would like to thank all of our employees, the market for its trust, and for the performance of our shares in 2025 and the early part of 2026. I now hand it over to our CFO, Eduardo Haiama. Thank you.

Eduardo Haiama, CFO

Thank you, Ivan. Good morning, everyone. Before we start the presentation on Slide 7, I want to emphasize, as Ivan mentioned, that we have reached the conclusion of the turnaround and are now moving forward, which is evident in our annual results publication. This marks the first time our company has published results with such quality in February. Historically, we have released results at the end of March or mid-March. This achievement is a significant effort that extends beyond just the accounting department; it involves the entire organization working to enhance controls and processes, leading to a smoother workflow, which allows for this February release. Now, let’s dive into Slide 7 and the key highlights. As previously noted, we effectively allocated our energy portfolio and executed our capital allocation strategy, resulting in record dividends of BRL 8.3 billion. Additionally, we saw a consistent uptick in investments, securing multiple lots in the 2025 transmission auction and reaching the highest investment levels since 2015. In terms of portfolio management, we successfully sold the thermal power plant and our stake in Eletronuclear. Besides what Ivan has already discussed regarding PMSO, we are also developing international supply chains, positioning ourselves for greater resilience as we expect investment levels to grow even further. We take pride in our people and culture, which was highlighted by the launch of our first stock purchase program, with significant employee participation, reflecting their confidence in the direction the company is headed. Furthermore, all our managers now have goals aligned with our strategy, focusing on the medium and long term. Moving to Slide 8 and the financial highlights, investments this quarter approached BRL 4 billion, representing nearly 30% year-on-year growth. The generation margin also experienced an increase, reaching BRL 101 per megawatt hour, consistent with our strategy discussed in the first quarter of 2025 aimed at protecting against potential price drops due to anticipated rains. As of March, the situation shifted, and we anticipated reaping optimal results in the second and fourth quarters, reinforcing our outlook stated earlier. During this quarter, we recognized BRL 12 million from tax asset activation, marking the conclusion of our turnaround phase and reflecting our constructive perspective on future profitability from these tax assets as the company's profitability rises. Regarding the transmission auction I mentioned, we secured several lots with a total investment of BRL 1.6 billion, leading to a RAP of BRL 140 million annually upon completion. We also achieved adjusted income of BRL 1.2 billion, marking a 141% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. On Slide 9, we observe revenue growth in transmission, which reflects lower adjustment portions along with increased revenue from reinforcement and improvements. In generation, we noted a decrease due to the divestment of thermal plants that were operational until 2024, with only one thermal plant remaining operational by October 2025. We reported an increase in EBITDA driven by a nearly BRL 400 million rise in generation contribution margins, excluding thermal plants, combined with a reduction in PMSO costs. Slide 10 presents our EBITDA figure of BRL 5.70 billion, showcasing four items that weren’t adjusted in the results but had generated questions in the past. One item involves reduced revenue reimbursement for wind farms in the fourth quarter when the wind plants under contract produced less than expected, leading to a BRL 250 million repayment. Additionally, there was a BRL 225 million fluctuation in transmission revenue from the third to the fourth quarter of 2025, which are transient revenues that may fluctuate back and forth. To align our costs and strengthen our workforce for exceptional performance, we expanded the profit-sharing potential and long-term incentive program, resulting in an additional BRL 108 million compared to 2024 metrics. Lastly, regarding our rebranding efforts in the quarter, we incurred a BRL 60 million expense, and had we excluded these factors, we would have achieved a regulatory EBITDA of nearly BRL 6.4 billion. On Slide 11, the significant highlight is the recognition of the deferred tax asset, which amounted to BRL 2 billion. If we take this into account, our income growth would have been 140%. Slide 12 illustrates the evolution of investments over the years. In 2022, we invested BRL 5.4 billion in reinforcement and improvement of the transmission grid, and our current investments at the plants already exceed that total. We project that for 2026 and 2027, our investments could reach an annual level between BRL 12 billion and BRL 14 billion due to the initiation of projects from auctions we secured in recent years and the anticipated growth in transmission enhancements. Now moving to trading on Slide 14. We have shown that we possess resources in each of the submarkets, which is valuable for understanding the seasonality trends across these areas over the past quarters, including purchases and deducting long-term contracted sales, specifically the ACR sales. This analysis is reflected on Slide 15 in the changes to our generation margin. In the fourth quarter of '24, if we exclude the reimbursement of wind plants amounting to BRL 250 million, which is not directly comparable, we would have seen a 25% increase in our generation margin. It’s important to note that thermal power plants must be excluded from the fourth quarter of '24 and January of the fourth quarter of '25, indicating a well-planned and implemented strategy to manage our generation portfolio. On Slide 16, I won’t delve into the specifics of the chart on the left, as it mirrors what we discussed earlier. However, looking ahead to 2026, considering our plans and the physical guarantees we have involving GSF, along with expected GSF according to CCEE forecasts and the physical guarantees related to seasonality based on MRE, we anticipate that in the first quarter we will have nearly 14 gigawatts of energy, decreasing to 8 gigawatts in the third quarter of '26, primarily due to the expected GSF for the second half, with a rebound to 11 gigawatts anticipated in the fourth quarter. Now moving on to Slide 18 regarding our culture and ESG agenda. We initiated our first share purchase program, resulting in 1,644 employees becoming new shareholders of the company, which accounts for 22% of our total workforce. Notably, around 54% of these individuals exclusively own AXIA shares. Furthermore, nearly 40% of these participants are purchasing shares for the first time, reflecting a strong confidence in our long-term strategy. These shares will remain restricted for a period of three years, emphasizing a long-term perspective. Regarding the compensation program, we have made updates to enhance the alignment between performance and value generation, prioritizing the company’s strategy. This reinforces our goal of fostering a sense of ownership among all employees. On Slide 19, talk a little bit about the ESG agenda. We've proposed the migration to Novo Mercado, and we'll talk a little bit about this in the next slide. And with that, I think we'll improve greatly our governance, which was already good. It's going to get even better. We launched a calculator available for anyone to measure their GHG emissions, also providing solutions to help reduce or neutralize them. I'm very proud to say that we are now on the A list of the CDP, which is a global benchmark for corporate environmental assessment, very much in line with our net zero 2030 trajectory. And again, we also made it in the Global Sustainability Yearbook 2026 of S&P. On Slide 20, I’d like to highlight that we will hold our meeting on April 1st of this year to discuss our transition to Novo Mercado, which is the highest governance level on the Brazilian stock market B3. As a result, shareholders will retain all their political and economic rights, including dividends, equally. We believe this move will optimize our capital allocation and enhance our appeal to potential new investors, thanks to improved ESG ratings. Additionally, by merging the different share classes, we've increased liquidity and positively influenced overall risk perception. With that, I think we can proceed to the questions-and-answer session. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Daniel Travitzky Safra.

Daniel Travitzky, Analyst

I have two questions on my side. The first about the very high income that you reported this quarter. I'd like to ask how this result may reflect in future dividend payout and capital allocation for the company? That would be my first question. And the second question, looking at the auction pipeline that we have this year, both in generation capacity in March and in the future for batteries and the transmission auctions that will be very relevant this year. I'd like to understand how the company sees these opportunities. If you can give us some color on how you see that.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President

Thank you, Daniel. To start, regarding capital allocation and dividends, we have focused extensively on the company's structural results and their predictability. This gives us confidence in our ability to capture energy prices. The management has worked on various conditions, and the forecasts for future net income in the fourth quarter are not particularly optimistic. However, I want to highlight the company's consistent performance since privatization, which involved significant efforts to reduce liabilities, lower operational costs, adjust our strategy, and implement cultural changes as detailed by Haiama. I will now hand over to him, along with Elio, to discuss our strategy for upcoming auctions, including those for battery capacity and transmission. Haiama, please take over.

Eduardo Haiama, CFO

Thank you, Daniel. As for dividends, considering what happened with the activation and what was acquired, it doesn't change with our capital allocation methodology. We have that capital allocation in dividends and buyback or new investments, we always look at a 5-year horizon based on a prediction of cash flow leverage, always using conservative prices for the uncontracted energy part. And with that, we check whether or not we have room for that to allocate more capital, paying more dividends or buybacks or more investments. So the income itself that was due to this IR activation is just a constructive view on the very long term for the company, not on the short term. On the short term, this methodology is what goes. I mean, as Ivan talked about, we have a lot of things that help in our risk perception, but profit or income alone is not the driver to pay out more or less. That's our view. It's always from the 5-year view.

Elio de Meirelles Wolff, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone. As we have stated before, transmission auction activity is ongoing and since 2023, we have been actively engaged in the auctions. To give you an idea, we have offered around 39 transmission lots since 2023. The AXIA Group remains competitive and dedicated to delivering value, having participated in 34 of those 39 lots. We review all of them; we may not participate in every auction, but our decisions are always based on technical and objective factors. In the 34 lots we participated in, we were successful in 9, which reflects our competitiveness. We have been enhancing our capacities, especially in engineering and supply, which is integral to our company's identity. This will continue as we approach 2026, where we expect to engage in at least 3 organized auctions, potentially even 4 or 5. For March, we have already counted 2 upcoming auctions. The first will be a capacity auction for hydropower plants, and we are optimistic about our position. Ivan mentioned our pipeline, and in terms of hydropower capacity alone, we anticipate potential medium to long-term income exceeding 6 gigawatts, with plans to participate in the auction on March 18. The same approach applies to transmission; we always analyze all available lots. There’s an auction on March 27 and another planned for October, with a possibility of a sub-auction or a collaboration with a different player around April or May, which we will also consider. This is an ongoing effort, and as we approach each auction, we determine our participation strategy and which lots to bid on, always prioritizing value generation. Lastly, while there is no set date yet, we are preparing for a battery auction, which we have been studying since we surpassed 4 gigawatts in our battery pipeline. We want to understand the rules and see how much of this capacity we can actually offer. The group is steadily increasing its pipeline to facilitate this with disciplined value generation, and these auctions present a great opportunity to realize those investments. That’s all I have.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Bruno Amorim at GS.

Bruno Amorim, Analyst

Congratulations on the results. I have two questions. The first concerns energy price dynamics. There seems to be a belief that energy prices are structurally on the rise and may continue to climb. However, this year has been drier, which could lead to higher price levels. How have you been operating in this environment? Are you leveraging the favorable cyclic dynamics, or is the strategy to wait for the higher prices to materialize? How do you view the cycle in both the short term and long term? My second question is about the opportunities arising from data centers. Do you see discussions taking place or recognize this as an opportunity for the country and the industry regarding electricity demand over the next 3 to 5 years? Or is it too early to determine?

Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President

Thank you for your question. I'll turn the floor to Pedro to talk about this view. And then LPSMG, I'd like to hear from Italo as well, and he can complement to our strategy for data centers, but thank you for your question.

Rodrigo Nascimento, Executive VP of Commercialization and Energy Solutions

Thank you, Bruno. In recent years, we have observed changes in the price dynamics of the energy market. During parts of '22 and '23 up to mid-'24, prices were near their lowest levels, even with a longer-term perspective. However, starting in the second half of 2024, we noticed significant changes and increased volatility in our industry, particularly regarding same-day reliability and flexibility, which affected price reflections. Initially, we did not perceive this volatility in the early years. Additionally, the decision to reduce subsidies to better signal prices has contributed to this change in market perception. The industry landscape for '23 and '24 is very different from what we have today. We anticipate this trend continuing in the coming years. This year, as you mentioned, we are experiencing some price pressure due to hydrology. Until January, we faced a period of low rainfall. In February, we saw an increase that provided some relief for the industry and improved reliability for the year, but so far, there hasn’t been any significant structural change in prices. In managing our portfolio, we consider all scenarios. It is evident that we are currently experiencing much more volatility than in the past, which means prices could fluctuate significantly in the next one to two months. A key factor in our portfolio management is the submarket distribution, as we have a well-diversified energy portfolio across various submarkets, including the North and Northeast. In January and February, we noticed higher prices that were reflective of the submarkets, but we anticipate that March may see prices exceeding BRL 100. We have adopted strategies to protect ourselves against this volatility and submarket risk. In the long run, we foresee a greater perception of prices. Therefore, we are always open to discussions with customers regarding long-term proposals and pricing, and we will proceed as negotiations make sense. Thank you. Pedro, please.

Pedro de Oliveira Jatobá, Executive VP of Technology and Innovation

Thank you, Bruno. I want to expand on Limp's comments regarding prices. Brazil is entering a new phase in the electricity sector characterized by volatility, primarily due to a limited capacity to adapt to the flexibility demands of the system, especially concerning distributed generation. This trend is expected to continue as technology increasingly influences the new electrical system in Brazil. We anticipate a price increase until a technological solution stabilizes the system. Consequently, there will likely be a price trajectory, especially given Brazil's dependency on hydrology, as Limp pointed out. A tight situation in January has already created some price pressures. Additionally, we are facing curtailment issues, particularly in the Northeast, where there is a significant demand for power. This creates a favorable environment for the data centers you mentioned, Bruno. We are in discussions with several major data center operators, but the main concern is the existing infrastructure challenges in Brazil, which need to evolve to accommodate the substantial energy demands of large hyperscale data centers—those requiring over 500 megawatts or up to 1.5 gigawatts. This brings operational challenges to the system, especially related to whether the application involves training or inference, as it could cause disruptions. The system frequency may drop, and ONS is currently unprepared for such scenarios. Therefore, we face a structural challenge that must be addressed in order to support these significant energy loads. Nonetheless, Brazil, especially the Northeast, is well-positioned to accommodate larger loads. We are engaging with various players and considering all operational adjustments required.

Operator, Operator

Next question, Fillipe Andrade from Itau BBA.

Filipe Andrade, Analyst

I'm here with the AXIA team. I'd like to address two topics, if I may. First, talking about trading. The company presented a contribution market on the ACL, the short-term market, close to BRL 300 per megawatt hour in our view that is closer to BRL 30 per megawatt hour. So considering the price level that we're seeing in the first quarter of '26, what is the level that the company sees in terms of modulation, the same level or any change? And how do you see the impact of El Nino in the prices in the second half of the year? And finally, also, if you can talk about the best expectation of the management for a potential conclusion of the Novo Mercado migration process.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President

Fillipe, as relating to trading, I will ask Limp's, I'm sorry, Haiama's participation for Novo Mercado migration. Haiama, Camila, please feel free.

Eduardo Haiama, CFO

Fillipe, first, you were asking about modulation. In the fourth quarter, we even have in our presentation in the attachment that the fourth quarter generated close to BRL 15 per megawatt hour for the hydropower plant. And when you sell that to energy that we have allocated, it will run at around BRL 300 million, maybe a little bit less in the quarter. And the trend going forward, obviously, as the system has more insertion as Itau said, with more intermittent sources and demands that may have peaks due to heat waves and it may grow over time. But going forward, I'd like to ask the expert to talk about this a little bit more. Yes, even as I mentioned earlier, today, we have an increasing presence of this daily modulation, the price volatility at different hours of the day. For example, in February 4, that was a very atypical time. At this time, it got to BRL 1,600 and modulation exceeded BRL 40. And today, we're looking on average BRL 15 to BRL 20, a slight increase in this first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. And the trend is for it to grow in the next few years. Of course, that new technologies, capacity auctions, storage systems in the future end up maybe attenuating or mitigating this in a relevant way. But today, the price indication and the daily PLD results bring this effect in modulation. That's always positive for hydropower plants because of the role they play and the characteristics of that source that is the only one and in fact that provides this flexibility that the system requires so much and this must be valued. Now talking about Novo Mercado, Fillipe. Our expectation in April 1 is to have the general meeting with the Class A B preferred shares and common shares. I think the market showed a little bit of what the meeting should be. I think it was very well received. And I think even you and the analysts present here, I think everybody understood this movement, but it's part of the normal natural move in the company's current stage. So we are relatively confident with this process, expecting to be able to unify these, but only with the future agenda going forward. Camila, if you'd like to add.

Camila Araujo, Executive VP of Governance and Sustainability

I think Haiama expressed it well. We have confidence in the approval model we are utilizing. The meeting on April 1 is not a joke; it’s a serious matter. We plan to hold three meetings with a positive outlook based on the results we’re observing and the feedback we’re getting about this initiative. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Our next question, Raul Cavendish from XP.

Raul Cavendish, Analyst

Can you hear me well?

Operator, Operator

Yes, we do.

Raul Cavendish, Analyst

I have a question here. Thinking about the energy allocations that you disclosed in your materials and considering GSF and so on. I've been noticing difficulty to reconcile the volume of energy sold in the quarter versus the allocations that you published ahead of time. Is there any element that is not captured in the disclosure of allocation that impacts the energy sale volume, and we're not able to model, for example, trading activities or something like that to help us be more accurate in our modeling over the quarters, even if the annual view doesn't really change that much.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President

Thank you, Raul. I'll turn to Haiama.

Eduardo Haiama, CFO

Thank you, Raul. There's an information here that's very confidential that's our assured energy. When we disclose the information, we disclose what's in the MRE. That's what we've included in the slide even. So from physical assurances allocated with the projected GSF. So that's a difference that occurs. As of '27, this difference won't be there anymore. So that's going to be easier. But in addition, we have to look at how you're modeling it. Remember that our contracts that are on the ACR, the long-term contracts with the distributors all have the GSF, some 92%, others 100%. And that, of course, has an impact when we do this calculation. So that may be generating some disruption when you make your projections compared to what's realized. But without that, everything that we release in liquidation and sales is what's, in fact happening, but there may be these differences here from the projection to what we see. I don't know if it's clear, Raul.

Raul Cavendish, Analyst

Yes, it is excellent. And then I think, finally, an additional question. So in addition to the LR cap of the hydro products, we have the storage, maybe I'd like to take Elio's and his team's perspective. And the group's mindset about the storage auction, if it makes sense and if this recent discussions about the battery, if it's on this range of 1.2 to 1.7. If you think it's adherent or do you see any discrepancy considering the CapEx of batteries anyway, to hear a little bit of your view.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President

Thank you, Raul. Please, Elio.

Elio de Meirelles Wolff, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development

Okay, Raul, this discussion is centered on the capacity auction. What we observe is that the system increasingly requires more power. This is just the first auction, and there will be additional opportunities to sell our capacity and potential pipeline. Regarding batteries, it's still too early to determine what we might consider. The landscape is different, with many suppliers, and we have been collaborating with several of them over the past couple of years to develop this. We will adjust our approach to participation as long as it makes sense for the group. However, it is still premature to dive into battery discussions.

Operator, Operator

The questions-and-answer session is concluded. We would like to turn the floor to Mr. Ivan Monteiro to deliver the company's closing remarks.

Ivan de Souza Monteiro, President

I would like to thank you all for your participation. Any additional doubts, please contact AXIA'S IR department. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

AXIA Energia conference is now closed. We thank everyone for their participation, and wish you all a good day.