Earnings Call
Barrick Mining Corp (B)
Earnings Call Transcript - B Q1 2025
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. This is the event operator. Welcome to Barrick's results presentation for the first quarter of 2025. As a reminder, this event is being recorded, and a replay will be available on Barrick's website later today, May 7, 2025. I would now like to turn you over to Mark Bristow, President and CEO of Barrick. Please go ahead, sir.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Thank you very much, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and particularly the folks that have made an effort to get here this morning. Thank you for joining us today. There's a lot happening, as you are well aware in the world right now, volatility, instability and shifting global priorities. Our philosophy at Barrick has never been to manage our business for the short term. While we are always ready to take advantage of high gold prices, we remain focused on building a business that can deliver sustainable profitability over the long term through the cycles, through challenges and through change. Just over 6 years ago, we set out to reposition and rebuild Barrick as the world's most valued gold and copper mining company. One that creates real long-term value, not just for investors, but for every stakeholder we work with. This past quarter was another busy one as we continued on that journey. You'll see today how we've progressed across every part of the business from operations and growth to sustainability and exploration. As part of this journey, we've also taken the step to change our name to Barrick Mining Corporation and our ticker on the New York Stock Exchange to the single letter B. It's a symbolic but important shift that reflects our strategic focus on a portfolio of long-life gold assets supported by a growing copper business. Before we begin, as usual, I'd like to draw your attention to the customary cautionary statement regarding forward-looking information. You can find the full details on our website, which you can review at your leisure if you so wish. Moving now to the group highlights. I'm pleased to show you another positive set of results with all the arrows once again pointing in the right direction. Production was up at the top of the guidance, and we continue to forecast improvements throughout the year. We have maintained the dividend at $0.10 per share, reduced debt and continued with our share buyback program. We've also announced the $1 billion sale of Donlin, the first step in rationalizing our portfolio to focus squarely on our Tier 1 assets. And across the business, our growth projects continue to gain momentum with Pueblo Viejo ramping up, Fourmile moving to prefeasibility, Lumwana and Reko Diq moving to construction and a new discovery already within the Reko Diq mining lease. Turning to our operational results. During the quarter, we completed significant projects at Pueblo Viejo, Nevada Gold Mines and Lumwana, positioning us well for the rest of the year and beyond. Copper had a great quarter, and we remain on track to meet our full year production targets for both gold and copper. Looking at the financial results. By all measures, this was a solid quarter reflecting the strength and resilience of the business we have built. On a year-on-year basis, despite the temporary shutdown of Loulo-Gounkoto and the previously mentioned maintenance work, we delivered significant growth in operating cash flow, free cash flow and earnings, all supported by a higher gold price, of course. I'll point you to our realized gold price in quarter 1, which already looks conservative, given where the spot price is today. Capital is tracking in line with our plans with growth capital expected to increase over the year as our two major construction projects ramp up their activity. Sustainability, as I'm sure you're all aware by now, remains the cornerstone of how we operate. It's not separate from our business; it is our business. Mining must leave at least a lasting positive impact. And that's what we strive for across every one of our sites. This quarter, we made strong progress on our journey to zero with a big focus on managing by walking about. We completed over 31,000 critical control verifications across the group, reinforcing leadership visibility and real-time risk management. We recorded improvements in the lost time injury frequency rate and total recordable injury frequency rate. No Class 1 or 2 environmental incidents and very importantly, our Class 3 events were down materially. Our water use efficiency remains above 80%, keeping us at the forefront of the industry. At Reko Diq, we secured environmental permits and both the Asian Development Bank and the International Finance Corporation have publicly disclosed the intended participation in Reko Diq financing. At Pueblo Viejo, the first families have moved into new homes under our resettlement program, which is guided by the IFC Performance Standard 5. We've also rolled out our social metric tracker aligned to the UN sustainable development goals to track real impact at the site level. So moving to North America and our operations there. This remains Barrick's value foundation and continues to perform steadily. We've taken clear steps this quarter to sharpen our portfolio. As I indicated already, Donlin sale is an important move aligned with our strategy to focus on Tier 1 assets. In line with that, we have also launched a process to test the market for Hemlo. Let me be clear to everyone here today, particularly, this has no bearing on our commitment to Canada. On the contrary, we've launched a significant drill program in the southern Abitibi, which I will discuss later. We are also exploring in the U.S., in Nevada, both within the joint venture and on Barrick ground, as well as in Arizona, Idaho and Montana. These programs target both gold and copper and form a core part of our organic growth strategy. Again, I will touch on that a little later. In line with our investment in people, we've now rolled out the Barrick Academy at Nevada Gold Mines, giving frontline leaders the tools to drive performance, improve safety and build operational excellence. Turning specifically to Nevada Gold Mines, we had a solid quarter, although production was lower on the back of planned roaster maintenance at Carlin. Importantly, we are starting to see real efficiency gains from the new Komatsu open pit fleet and organizational optimization, which is already driving mining unit costs back down to levels we haven't seen since 2022. At Cortez, production was lower quarter-on-quarter due to fewer high-grade underground tons and lower-grade open pit ore stacked on the leach pads. At Turquoise Ridge, throughput increased quarter-on-quarter at the Sage autoclave, though lower grades offset the volume gains. Still, recovery performance was strong, helping support overall results. During April, we also completed the planned gold quarry roaster shutdown. So with the major maintenance behind us in Nevada Goldmines, we're well set for an improved quarter 2 and a better second half. Moving to Fourmile. This is one of the most exciting projects, as I've mentioned before, in our portfolio. We currently have 16 rigs turning with drill holes averaging over a kilometer in depth. As we've already disclosed, grades at Fourmile are more than double those at Goldrush. Early geotechnical data points to more competent rock strength, which can potentially support larger-scale stoping than that of our other Nevada operations. Combined with its proximity to existing infrastructure, this makes Fourmile a clear standout. We've now advanced the project into feasibility study with a focus on defining the full resource footprint and evaluating the geometallurgy of the ore body and access options, all of which are critical for future development. We've already submitted the plan of operations for the potential portal disturbance and commenced with baseline studies for permitting. So this work is well underway. When you consider the potential size and quality of the ore bodies located in a jurisdiction with multiple Tier 1 assets, it's clear that Fourmile has the potential to deliver unparalleled value for Barrick and Nevada. It also explains why we chose to divest Donlin, an asset that was not in a position to compete with Fourmile for capital in our portfolio. Canada, as I said earlier, remains a core destination for us. And we're fully committed to growing our presence here. As you can imagine, it's a highly competitive environment, especially with the recent uplift in gold prices. But we're focused on building a high-quality portfolio of targets that can support long-term value. We've just recently kicked off a drilling project at Norris, making a significant step in rebuilding our exploration pipeline in the region and continue to progress and evaluate other project opportunities. We're also busy with the permitting for the next drill phase at the Sturgeon Lake project. Shifting to Latin America and Asia Pacific, we've seen stellar performance across the board this quarter. Our signature growth project, Pueblo Viejo made solid progress. Reko Diq, as I mentioned earlier, has officially moved into construction phase and is already showing an exciting early indicator of upside that comes with Tier 1 assets. Veladero delivered a standout performance yet again and development of Phase 8a of the leach pad is on track and the mine is set up for another strong year. At Porgera, the ramp-up continues and the operation commenced dividend payments this quarter. Moving specifically to Pueblo Viejo, this is a long-life operation with a planned mine life of over 20 years. And once the ramp-up is complete, we're targeting production of more than 800,000 ounces a year. The plant was down for 35 days during the past quarter, as we completed a series of upgrades. These included improvements to the flash recycle system, deslime pump upgrades and a complete overhaul of the thickener center well. As expected, gold production was lower quarter-on-quarter, but we saw improvement in throughput in April. The team continues to make good progress under our go-for-gold plan. We are on track to meet guidance this year, and our target is to produce more than 800,000 ounces in 2026. This slide shows the key components of our expansion and ramp-up program at Pueblo Viejo. As you can see, we're on track, and all major projects for the quarter were completed as planned. We remain confident that this expansion will unlock the full long-term potential of this asset. As part of the Pueblo Viejo expansion, we're developing the El Naranjo tailings storage facility, which requires the relocation of nearby communities. As already mentioned, we are following IFC Performance Standard 5 to guide this process, and we're committed to ensuring that people are better off as a result of the relocation. The first 18 families have already moved into their new homes, and we're relocating more families every week. The new community, which we call New Horizons in Spanish, is a fully self-contained development that includes housing, schools, recreational facilities, potable water, electricity, roads and space for vegetable gardens and farming. To date, 220 houses have been completed, with a total of over 550 to be finished by the end of the year as the development continues on schedule. At Reko Diq, this project is really taking shape now. You can see on the top right of the slide, a model of what the project will look like, and it's all systems go. We've begun mobilizing the first heavy equipment, and we've appointed Fluor as our lead engineering, procurement and construction management partner, working alongside the internal owners team and other partners. This is a world-class copper-gold project that will deliver enormous value, not just for Barrick but equally for our partners in Pakistan and particularly in Balochistan. It's one of the largest undeveloped porphyry copper-gold systems in the world, and it's not yet reflected in our share price. While the total Phase 1 and 2 investment is expected to be around $10 billion, our share of the total equity contribution is estimated between $1.4 billion and $1.7 billion for Phase 1, excluding capitalized financing costs. At this stage, everything indicates that we'll be able to fund Phase 2 through the project itself. It's important to understand that this is very much in line with how we've approached our early-stage investments in countries like Mali back in the 1990s and the DRC more recently, disciplined, not betting the farm, phased and with strong partnerships forged ahead of construction. On the last point, we have invested roughly $230 million to date with our partners in Pakistan, participating equally alongside us, as disclosed in our financials for everyone tracking this progress. While the Reko Diq feasibility study has defined a 37-year reserve life, and it's important to understand this is a reserve life rather than a life-of-mine estimate. The real story is the potential to go well beyond that out to the end of the century. This slide shows that even before we've started production, we are already adding life and value. One of the first new discoveries within the mining lease is just 4 kilometers north of the Western Porphyries, which is the main ore body that we've got in our life-of-mine reserve plan. It's called Bukit Pasir, and it's a clear indication of the quality and prospectivity of this region. The Africa and Middle East region has been a major value contributor to Barrick over the past 2 decades, but we're seeing some challenges in the broader environment. Africa remains, however, a highly prospective and good destination to add value to our portfolio. One of the few regions in the world where we consistently replace what we mine, and we expect the trend to continue this year. In Mali, operations at Loulo-Gounkoto remain suspended. But as disclosed in our previous press releases, we continue our engagement with the transitional government and are working hard to overcome these challenges and achieve a long-term solution that puts an end to the current impasse. This has been a cornerstone asset for the country, and we are committed to finding a constructive way forward. On the copper side, Lumwana has now officially transitioned into the construction phase of its expansion project, and Jabal Sayid delivered a strong quarter, maintaining its momentum. At Kibali, production was lower this quarter, mainly due to lower ore grades from underground as scheduled in the mine plan. We expect throughput to improve over the course of the year with a stronger second half, in line with our guidance. We have also advanced work on the solar power installation, which, again, will reduce energy costs and further support our sustainability goals. Importantly, Kibali has a track record of replacing the reserves at mines, and this year is no different. Also worth noting, Kibali is trialing a fleet of EV trucks for rehandling material on the ROM pad. This slide zooms in on the ARK-KCD corridor, and it's worth emphasizing just how important this work is to the future of Kibali. The team has made great progress, not only extending the main KCD ore body down plunge but also on the adjacent ARK target, which is a significant brownfields growth opportunity. We're seeing high-grade intercepts with encouraging continuity, and this work is starting to build a coherent geological model across the corridor. The key question we are now testing is whether ARK and KCD connect. If that's the case, it could represent a material extension of the mineralized system and unlock meaningful new ounces from within the existing footprint. In Tanzania, both North Mara and Bulyanhulu had solid quarters, delivering in line with the plan. There were some commissioning activity and lower grades at North Mara as scheduled in the mining sequence, but recoveries and efficiencies remain strong, and both sites are on track to meet full-year guidance. Since 2020, we have built trust, stabilized the operations and restored Barrick's reputation as a long-term partner in the country. It's a powerful example of how responsible mining done right can rebuild the business and create lasting value for all stakeholders. Turning to Lumwana and Zambia. Q1 production reflected a planned mill reline and lower grades as noted in our guidance. We expect performance to improve in Q2 and strengthen further in the second half as these temporary factors roll off. The Super Pit project will double production and is expected to come online in 2028. One of the key focus areas is power infrastructure, as you can imagine. We're actively working to ensure we can manage this challenge as the expansion ramps up. The scale and value of Lumwana and the expansion in particular are still not reflected in our share price, and we believe this project will be a major value driver for the group in the years ahead. Africa and the Middle East continues to be one of our most prospective regions and this slide highlights the breadth of our exploration footprint across the continent. We've consistently delivered value here through exploration, development and partnerships. And we're well positioned to do so again. We're actively exploring across the Central African copper belt, including new permit areas in Zambia and the DRC, as well as advancing greenfield work in Tanzania, Senegal and through our joint venture with Ma'aden in Saudi Arabia. I have always said that the foundation of a real mining company lies in its reserve base. And this slide brings that into sharp focus. On the left, you can see the growth in our gold reserves per share since the merger. And on the right, the gold equivalent reserve base, again, per share, which now includes a material increase in copper and reflects the strength of our broader resource portfolio. We're proud that Barrick continues to lead the industry in replacing and growing reserves through the drill bit and not through overpriced M&A. Since the merger, we've added 111 million gold equivalent ounces of reserves at a cost of just $10 per gold equivalent ounce compared to M&A deals in the sector averaging over $440 per ounce, and in some cases, more than double that. It's a disciplined strategy that underpins our growth plans and reinforces the long-term value of our business. So ladies and gentlemen, as we wrap up, it's worth highlighting something that really sets Barrick apart in the mining industry: its ability to present a long-term rolling business plan. This isn't common in our sector. Most companies can only talk in 1- to 3-year snapshots. But at Barrick, we give our shareholders a clear road map, a long-term view of how we intend to deliver production, profitability and growth. The visibility gives us confidence because it allows us to plan, prioritize and manage our portfolio in a disciplined way. We've also shown that over time our ability to replace the gold and copper we mine while finding more keeps changing that forward profile for the better. We are driven by a strategy that invests in the future. And as you can see here, there's significant organic growth built into the portfolio through to the end of the decade. As we've shown in our 10-year plan and beyond that, look at what we already have: Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo, the Tier 1 assets in Africa, all with tangible brownfields upside. Add to that, Fourmile, the Lumwana expansion and the Reko Diq growth project, plus the new project pipeline our exploration team is pursuing, and you begin to see just how much potential is still ahead of us. This is a high-quality portfolio built by a high-quality team, operating in some of the world's most prospective regions. So Barrick is as it stands, a standout performer in our industry. It isn't just the quality of our assets or the strength of our pipeline; it's the way we build this company on a strategy grounded in long-life Tier 1 assets, supported by a growing copper portfolio, exceptional growth assets that don't require new debt or share dilution, a disciplined balance sheet, continuous reserve replacement and a global exploration engine that's active in every major mineral belt. It's also about our people. We've invested in our leaders, our teams and our culture. And that's why we are able to operate in the world's most prospective, but sometimes more challenging jurisdictions. And do so successfully, I might add, and sustainably. We're delivering returns today whilst also building this business for the long term. And we're focused on delivering value for all our stakeholders, not just in ounces or earnings, but in jobs, in partnerships and an opportunity. And importantly, we've done all this without issuing new equity. On the contrary, we continue to buy back our shares while investing in growth and strengthening their balance sheet. That's the Barrick difference. And that's why we believe the best is yet to come. Thank you all for listening, and we'll be happy to take questions. And I think, Claudia, we're going to take from here first. Okay.
Ralph Profiti, Analyst
This is Ralph Profiti from Stifel. First one, you've talked about one of the rationales for the sale of Donlin being competing for capital against Fourmile. I'm wondering if there's a read-through on the valuation and how it pertains to Fourmile because there is a valuation and a market valuation anchor to how you're going to bring Fourmile into Nevada Gold Mines. And I'm wondering if there's a correlation between the two on valuation.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
No, I think there's no correlation between the two. I think Donlin is way out of mining. And when you look at our development plans, it was way back at the back end of our development planning. And so it makes sense to realize that asset and focus on the assets that meet our Tier 1 definitions. And that's really the driver. We saw the value of Donlin in the market is well set by NovaGold at the stage of the deal, the NovaGold market cap. So that was as close as we could get to a market-related value, and we were comfortable with it. And clearly so as NovaGold.
Ralph Profiti, Analyst
Understood. You presented a slide on Kibali, indicating some of the newer geological findings suggest a more complex geological structure. I'm curious about how you're considering potential changes to the processing side to incorporate that long-term potential.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Kibali has an effective flow sheet that includes standard gold crushing and milling, along with flotation and ultrafine grind processes. It does not require roasters or autoclaves, making it complete as it stands. We expect no changes in the metallurgy of the new deposits. The ARK area is interesting as KCD is the first major ore body we've started with in open pit mining, and it's currently being mined down dip. This area has cigar-shaped, tightly folded ore bodies where the mineralization follows the hinge lines of the folds. ARK is appearing similar to this, being subparallel. There is no difference in mineralization, as it's linked with tightly folded banded iron formations. We are observing significant continuity and some notably high grades similar to the 3,000 lode and 5,000 lode of KCD, which were crucial for Kibali's success. This is a new target located very close to the existing site. The key question is whether it is part of the same tectonic or structural event and mineralization event, or if it is distinct. We believe it is the same event. However, it is different from the other satellite deposits we've mined at Kibali. We also have additional deposits located further from the processing plant and the main mine. While Kibali presents geological challenges, we've managed to double the reserves defined in our initial feasibility study and have been mining for a considerable time.
Brian MacArthur, Analyst
Brian MacArthur, Raymond James. One of the things you highlighted in the report was how you're getting value-added tailings with sulfur to be used in Nevada? And obviously, there's a huge benefit from sustainability. But can you just talk about the economics and how that helps the roasters in Nevada? And just how much it might actually be worth if you're willing to put a number on that?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
The value is significant. We have two projects like this: Golden Sunlight, which is a closure site in Montana, and we're currently busy ramping that up. It has faced some challenges in achieving full ramp-up, but it is primarily a rehabilitation project that eliminates the need for ongoing water treatment while producing a valuable product in the form of sulfide concentrate. This serves as fuel for both our autoclaves and roasters. With this understanding, our Nevada team, based in Phoenix, reassessed our tailings, which are rich in sulfide. They conducted a feasibility study and built a concentrator in Phoenix. This new facility will yield more than Golden Sunlight, though it won’t fully satisfy all our requirements, it is nonetheless significant. Prill sulfur is very expensive, so we are addressing an environmental challenge while supplying low-cost fuel for our roasters and autoclaves. Henri, do you have insights on the benefits, perhaps comparing the cost of prill to your production costs or something similar?
Henri Gonin, Finance Executive
The cost of the prill is variable, but we currently pay about $300 per ton for sulfur, and we are producing the sulfur concentrate at Phoenix for under $70 per ton delivered to the roasters.
Brian MacArthur, Analyst
Sorry, can I just follow up and ask if there are other tailings at other sites in Nevada that you could utilize to create additional value over time? I'm aware that Phoenix is at a different stage than some of the others, but I was just curious.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
No, I think one of the things to consider is that Nevada has multiple ore bodies and large tailings facilities. We are investigating what other metals are present in those tailings, especially rare earths and some critical minor elements that usually do not occur on their own. We are quite confident in our ability to reprocess our tailings dams. For instance, with Morila, we extracted from a very high-grade ore body, and towards the end of the mining operation, we reprocessed the tailings dam and continued to profit until there was nothing left in the tailings. This is something we have done before, and we are always looking for opportunities to capitalize on that. A significant challenge in the mining industry is ensuring we manage our tailings deposits effectively because historically, they have created substantial liabilities due to ongoing water treatment needs, which is also true for copper facilities. We are very conscious of this issue, and our closure team is focused on identifying and extracting any valuable materials from the tailings dam.
Operator, Operator
Our first question is from Josh Wolfson with RBC Capital Markets.
Joshua Wolfson, Analyst
There's a lot of interesting headlines creating some conversations today. And I just want to sort of clarify what the company's views are on some items. The first question I had was, I think, Mark, you made some comments about gold-related M&A here at the top of the cycle being a risk. I just wanted to sort of maybe pivot on the other side. On the copper side for M&A, would you see there be any cyclical advantage to looking at opportunities today given where gold prices are relative to copper?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Yes, Josh, that's a very insightful question. The challenge we face in copper, similar to what we experienced in 2011, is the prevailing belief that gold prices will continue to rise. From my perspective, there is certainly a base forming in the gold sector, driven by demand and a lack of short-term solutions in the global economy. Additionally, de-dollarization is becoming a reality. Recently, we've also noticed increased volatility in gold prices, which is expected for a time. Whether this stabilizes into a new base or builds a foundation for further growth remains uncertain. However, the market drivers are firmly established, and the global political dynamics are intensifying these factors. There's also a significant concern about increasing debt levels throughout the global economy. On the copper front, the situation is a bit different. To conclude on gold, rising prices can make mineral deposits appear more promising; however, people often overlook the impact of costs, inflation, and the risk of depleting reserves. Currently, our industry has limited inventory available, and we are continuously acquiring assets that were not viable just a year and a half ago, often at a premium. As for copper, the existing inventory held by large producers and diversified miners is not economically viable at current prices around $4.20 to $4.50 per pound. While there is inventory, little investment in new capital has occurred. Instead, the copper industry has focused on brownfield projects, accepting higher operating costs for quicker, less capital-intensive production. Unfortunately, we have not prioritized exploration, which has hindered our ability to replenish supply. A higher copper price is needed to incentivize investment and development because constructing a new copper mine is time-consuming. That's why Lumwana and Reko Diq stand out; they have significant capital requirements. Lumwana, in particular, is generating cash flow alongside our second-stream project. Interestingly, despite a somewhat unclear global economic outlook, copper prices have recently demonstrated strength. This is noteworthy, as it suggests a tightening in supply. Observing this trend in the copper market amidst a soft global economy is intriguing. When we presented our capital plans to our Board and colleagues in Pakistan, we emphasized the timing as ideal for developing copper mines, particularly if they can be operated profitably at lower prices. In the past, we took bold steps by investing when gold was at $260 an ounce, targeting viable projects and using a gold price threshold of $450. This strategy allowed us to build three new mines and benefit from the price spike in 2011 while repaying debt strategically when others focused on mergers and acquisitions. Over the past couple of years, we have remained vigilant about our balance sheet and sought to enhance our per-share value through cash investments rather than relying on expensive equity deals. That sums up my response to your question.
Joshua Wolfson, Analyst
Got it. The other sort of bigger headline today, I'm never sure if journalists and perhaps analysts in some situations are taking liberty. But there was an article talking about a Board formalized process to find a successor. I understand you're committed to stay until 2028. And I guess I just want to understand why would the Board be preparing for this 3 or 4 years in advance? And any sort of commentary on the succession planning?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
The succession process is always overseen by the Board. It’s clear that everyone is eager for a narrative. As you know, Randgold placed significant emphasis on succession, and we collaborated with the Board to manage it. Major succession plans require careful consideration. You've been asking about this for quite some time, and I've addressed it repeatedly. I've always emphasized the significance of succession, and it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone because you all understand our philosophy. We evaluate risks, including leadership, and we consider both uncontrolled events and managed transitions. This is why we successfully took over the challenging business of Barrick from Randgold in 2019, allowing us to address most issues promptly due to our established succession plan. Our succession strategy operates on a 12-month rolling program, deeply embedded in the organization. As an executive group, we are familiar with the top 300 high-potential employees across all regions. We discuss this with the Board, and we incorporate an executive development program as a key component of our succession plan. The Board’s involvement is vital. Let me clarify, three years is not a long period in a business like Barrick.
Joshua Wolfson, Analyst
Yes, if I can ask just one more question on the operations side. Are there any kind of insights you can provide in terms of how PV is performing post first quarter results and some of the action plans that were taken then?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Yes. The major development involved changing out the NOL of the settler, which was a significant project. We also upgraded the pressure cooling in the autoclaves and made improvements to some large pumps. The key focus is on settling to enhance throughput. During the expansion, we implemented a SAG-ball combination in the initial phase, and the recent expansion introduced a substantial SAG mill. Initially, we weren't sure if we would require additional settling capacity, but it became evident that we did, so we retrofitted it as an option. As a result, throughput has improved, and the data I shared reflects that we are on track. April showed solid throughput, and while there's some variation as we stabilize these numbers, we are consistently hitting our targets. We have reached the quarter 2 performance in shorter production runs. We believe this installation will meet our expectations, and we'll continue to monitor and report on it. Currently, our main goal is to stabilize throughput and enhance recovery, anticipating a 1% increase in recovery by the end of this quarter. We plan to maintain that recovery into quarter 3 while also seeing another increase in throughput, which should lead to further improvements in recovery. As we mentioned a few quarters ago, we expect recovery to rise over the next six quarters, but the essential factor driving production is throughput, which is our current priority.
Operator, Operator
The next question is from Dan Major with UBS.
Daniel Major, Analyst
Yes, first question, just on Mali. I see it consumed around $80 million of cash this quarter, like negative $64 million EBITDA and $14 million in CapEx. As far as I'm aware, it has not been placed on care and maintenance while the negotiations continue. How long are you willing to keep in this status? And can you give us a reminder on what the care and maintenance cost would be if you move to a full care and maintenance scenario?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
At this point, we have not transitioned to a care and maintenance scenario and do not plan to do so unless absolutely necessary. Currently, we are using the facilities of two independent companies in Mali to support their ongoing operations. As we approach the rainy season, we need to manage the situation and ensure that all infrastructure remains operational and that the underground mines are properly dewatered. That's our focus right now. Graham, would you like to address the potential holding costs if we were to close and enter into care and maintenance?
Graham Shuttleworth, CFO
Yes. So the current sort of run rate, Dan, is around $15 million a month. But as Mark points to, we still have all of our staff on the payroll. We have relocated some of our expatriate staff elsewhere. If we were to go to a, let's call it, a full care and maintenance scenario where we were literally just doing skeleton maintenance, you could expect to half that number.
Daniel Major, Analyst
Okay, so less than $10 million a month. Okay. That's clear. And then, yes, next question, just on the portfolio. There are some positive moves in looking to divest some of the non-core assets, Donlin, and I see the press commentary around Hemlo. Any other comments you can make on Zaldivar? I know that's one that you've highlighted before? Is this process of considering the noncore assets sharpened the focus on that asset?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
We are actively working on renewing the mining license for Zaldivar and making good progress, which is our main priority for that team, both at Antofagasta and among our team involved in the process. Currently, our focus is on Zaldivar. Regarding Hemlo, we had it for sale in 2019 but decided to hold it back as it lacked a solid plan. Over the past three years, we have invested in the mine. In the last two years, we have seen an increase in cash flow from operations, completed the initial open pit expansion, and are currently drilling underground to align the underground reserves with the open-pit production profile. Hemlo has a life-of-mine of 10 years with good potential. We have expanded its footprint and its potential for growth. While the mine has lower production levels compared to our top-tier assets, it remains a solid operation that offers ongoing prospects, making it appealing to a mid-sized mining company, although it isn’t suitable for Barrick. In 2019, when we did the transaction, we cleaned up our portfolio by selling KCGM, Lagunas Norte, and Massawa, distributing those capital gains back to shareholders, which is often overlooked but was a significant return. Now, with tangible growth on the horizon, we are targeting a 30% increase in gold equivalent production by the end of the decade. Quickly divesting non-core assets helps us focus on high-quality assets, improving overall company value. This is an ideal moment to clarify our non-core assets as our Tier 1 holdings, and we are enthusiastic about Barrick's next phase that promises real growth. This situation is somewhat similar to what we experienced with Randgold from 2009 to 2013 when we developed Loulo, Tongon, and Kibali while incurring debt, ultimately increasing production alongside rising gold prices. We financed this expansion through debt and internal funds without issuing equity during construction, except for a small amount during the Moto acquisition, which added value to the portfolio. We are beginning to show you results, setting the foundation for value per share growth as we trend reserves in the right direction. You can monitor this performance moving forward.
Daniel Major, Analyst
Great. And maybe I could just put one more in there on the portfolio and perhaps a bigger picture question. When I look at asset values across the sector, there's been a widening gap between higher jurisdictional risk and lower jurisdictional risk regions. You've previously shown the kind of discounted multiple of, for example, the Nevada assets within the Barrick portfolio. Internally, is there any discussion about separating the higher and lower jurisdictional risk assets to realize what appears to be a trend amongst investors of willing to pay more for low-risk assets? Is that an internal discussion at all?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Let me clarify that this idea stems from a perception that has developed in the market. The primary driver of valuation in what we refer to as lower-risk areas is the focus on immediate gains. When examining the assets that have truly generated significant equity growth, it’s all about short-term cash flow generation, while analysts often overlook the long-term potential. They tend to concentrate on quarterly or yearly performance, neglecting the broader picture of results over the life of the mine. There’s a considerable amount of cash flow being generated, and that’s what fund managers are currently valuing. If we analyze the previous two decades, the real value lies in long-term performance. For instance, Barrick’s yield ranks among the highest, not due to large dividends but because of equity costs. When you invest in that equity with a long-term perspective, you can achieve substantial returns by considering the life of the mine. A straightforward cash flow model would show that free cash flow can increase rapidly. We are consistently replenishing our resources. However, if reserves aren’t replaced, sustaining capital decreases quickly, which may appear favorable at first. But as many of us have observed over the years, production declines become apparent when there are no alternatives. Acquisitions can only sustain you for so long. I would argue it’s more about establishing operations in secure regions, while also considering the impact of mergers and acquisitions. It's important to note that I am a significant shareholder who supports a long-term strategy, as that’s ultimately what generates real profit for investors, including large value investors. It’s crucial to understand that our assets in Africa were instrumental in addressing historical neglect in Nevada, which is now performing well. Comparing Nevada’s current asset profile with the past illustrates this transformation. The success comes from our globally diversified asset base. Recent history shows major companies, such as Rio and Newmont, expanding into regions like Mongolia, Guinea, and Papua New Guinea, as well as focusing on areas like the Central African Republic, known for its rich copper and critical minerals. Sometimes, we get sidetracked or confused between short-term gains and jurisdictional risk.
Operator, Operator
Next question is from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Mark. I have a couple of questions, particularly about two assets, which I'll address first to be mindful of time. You mentioned the long-term value and investments in Nevada, which are commendable. However, one asset that hasn't received much emphasis, especially regarding copper, is Phoenix. It has a notable copper portfolio or copper byproduct. When considering this asset, do you believe there is some upside that the market may be overlooking with Phoenix? Specifically, with the U.S. evaluating strategic assets containing copper, such as those on the FAST-41 list. My second question is about the Goldstrike roaster. How many days were lost to planned maintenance at the Goldstrike roaster in Q1? Additionally, are there any other significant planned maintenance activities for the roaster or autoclave scheduled for this year in 2025?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Yes, to address your question about Phoenix, our current priority is to fully explore its potential. Historically, Phoenix has been operated primarily as a gold mine while accounting for copper credits. However, there is significant porphyry potential at Phoenix, and we have established targets there that we are actively evaluating. It's still early in this process, but Phoenix today represents a different business compared to 2019. Over time, we believe it will prove to be a valuable resource. We have not yet fully explored conversion opportunities as we focus on understanding the geology better. On the topic of the shutdown, Henri is here and can provide more details. We experienced two major shutdowns in succession: first the Goldstrike roaster and then the gold quarry roaster at the end of April, which prepares us for improved production in Carlin and Nevada overall in the second quarter, as well as a stronger second half of the year. This improvement comes as a result of our efforts to complete maintenance schedules. Henri, could you please provide more information on the timing?
Henri Gonin, Finance Executive
Yes, the Goldstrike roaster was originally scheduled to be offline for 21 days but was operational again after 20 days. The Gold Quarry roaster was down for its planned 28 days in April. Regarding the autoclaves, we take each stream of the Sage autoclave at TR down individually. The plant operates at 50% capacity during this time, but it did experience a complete shutdown for 7 days as planned while the first autoclave was down. The next autoclave is scheduled to go down in September for maintenance. I would like to emphasize that we are significantly shifting the majority of our maintenance downtime. This planned maintenance has been crucial in helping us manage our production guidance.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Yes. Great for that. Can I also ask you about the intended use of proceeds for the Donlin cash that you'll be receiving hopefully shortly?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Our capital allocation strategy is straightforward. We stick to our plans, aiming to maintain a healthy balance sheet as we enter this capital phase during a dynamic period. We have the capacity to reduce our debt, and when our net debt is between zero and $500 million in positive cash, we will issue a special dividend. We're also focused on share buybacks, and as we've shown, we are implementing a deliberate share buyback strategy while rationalizing some of our productive assets. Using some of the Donlin cash for stock buybacks is a sound investment for us right now, providing benefits on every metric. Additionally, we understand the importance of rewarding our shareholders with increased dividends. This is the approach that Graham and I, along with the Board, have agreed upon for managing our balance sheet, and we will continue with this strategy.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
When considering the possibility of relocating our domicile to the U.S., we need to factor in the cost of losing the net operating loss tax benefit. What advantages do you believe would warrant such a decision?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
The main point is that I want to emphasize the importance of consideration regarding this topic, which has been a discussion ongoing since the days of Peter Munk, when they referred to Barrick as American Barrick. We shouldn't jump to conclusions at this time. The current structure is well organized. One challenge is that the U.S. assets are not optimally managed within the corporate framework, and there is room for improvement. Regarding the accumulated losses, we have both operational and capital losses that we intend to utilize without eliminating them. We constantly evaluate ways to leverage those losses. This will be taken into account during our ongoing discussions, which is our current position. A specific Canadian publication prematurely published a story. However, as I mentioned to them, this is something we regularly assess. It is a common topic of discussion at our Board meetings at least once a year, and we will keep exploring potential opportunities. It must be driven by logic, which is a significant challenge.
Operator, Operator
Next question is from Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Mark, can I start back on the noncore assets now that Hemlo is on the block? I look through your portfolio; I think on the previous conference call, you had mentioned both Zaldivar and Tongon as being noncore. Where does Pascua-Lama, Norte Abierto sit within that portfolio for you?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
So Tongon is well advanced in the realization process, which we started some time ago. Hemlo is just getting underway, while we've applied for drilling permits for the preliminary economic assessment related to Pascua. Pascua is a vital component of Lama and has always been. We have taken a step back to consider it in conjunction with Veladero. There’s still some work to be done before deciding to categorize it as a noncore asset. Right now, we are drilling targets near Veladero, which is in a strong position. We've just completed the community consultation and submitted the initial notice to apply for drilling permits for Pascua-Lama, which we now refer to as El Alto.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay. Not southwest and other down there? Are those potential...
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
We've completed most of El Indio and are currently working on Alturas, which is in Chile. At the moment, we are occupied with a new pre-feasibility study for Montana. The study is in progress, and we will wait for the results.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay. And then if I could come back, my second question is, Mark, on the succession planning. From the article in the Financial Times, they made it sound that it's a more formal process now. I guess the way you answered it, it's just a normal Board process through the Governance Committee that you review succession planning quarterly or yearly. Is that a fair statement?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Yes. I believe it's important to emphasize that we've gone through a similar process with Randgold Resources. Therefore, you should rely on my perspective rather than the reporter's. We have consistently talked about the need to develop people skills. Our succession plan is very well-structured. As we approach the end of the decade or the completion of Reko Diq, or both, you will notice a more formal process taking shape. It’s a logical progression.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
And then my last question was just on Mali. Mark, what are the next steps? Where do we currently stand? I know negotiations are ongoing, but could you provide some visibility on any next steps that we should be aware of? What are your next steps?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
We have reached agreements three times with the Malians, only for them to retract those agreements. We have initiated a process under the exit arbitration provisions, which is based on the agreement regarding the appropriate dispute resolution mechanism that we have already established. We have used this mechanism before, and there's precedence for it, so we believe that this should be the focus. I can confirm that Mali is participating in this process. However, as we've done over the past couple of decades, it's preferable to negotiate a settlement rather than engage in a poorly managed legal battle. I believe we are still very much engaged. This situation is reminiscent of what we faced after the 2019 transaction, when we dealt with closed operations in Tanzania, nationalization in Pakistan, and pending permits in Papua New Guinea, navigating through several challenging situations to achieve significant results and forge new partnerships. The circumstances in Mali are more difficult due to a forced change, compounded by the lack of professional advice on their side, which hinders our ability to sit down together and thoroughly analyze the numbers. One major concern for me is the unnecessary retention of four of our executive teams, which is completely unacceptable. We are committed to addressing this diligently and finding a lasting solution with proper due process and the safeguarding of our rights, which we are actively managing.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Can you just remind me where the arbitration will be held? Is it in France, I guess?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
It's an exit process. Exactly where the actual arbitration committee will land is something that the process will define going forward. But it's a World Bank exit program.
Operator, Operator
The next question is from Josh Rales with RFI Associates.
Josh Rales, Analyst
I have 2 questions. The first relates to your cost structure. I love your ownership orientation. I love the Barrick Academy. I'm looking at how you train people and how you manage costs. I was comparing Barrick's projected all-in sustaining costs for the year versus Agnico. You're about $300 an ounce higher. Could you give a little bit of color on what the main factors are that you think drive those higher costs and whether it's a short-term thing that will converge over time or whether it's because you're all over the world and they're more concentrated in a jurisdiction? I'd love to get your thoughts about that to understand that.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
And the second?
Josh Rales, Analyst
The second point relates to my excitement for the industry and your company. When you consider the midpoint of your production and all-in sustaining cost guidance for 2025, if you analyze the current gold price, it results in approximately a $1,900 an ounce pretax margin. I just wanted to confirm that I'm on the right track. If this continues over a 12-month period, which we can't be sure of, that translates to about a $6.3 billion pretax earnings run rate for the year. You have outlined how you would prioritize the use of funds, but I'd like to ask if there are any other exciting projects beyond Fourmile that you would consider if you had extra funds. Would your priorities shift to perhaps invest more in Canada or elsewhere, or would you stick with the special dividend and the buyback?
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
So Josh, I'll start with the second part of your question. Let me take you back to the years 2011 to 2015, when there were complaints that Randgold had lost its growth focus because we were primarily increasing our cash flow. It was around 2015 that Barrick became the most valued gold company globally. Growth can manifest in various forms, and the most promising type is long-term growth that is sustainable while simultaneously increasing profits and cash flow. Considering today's market conditions, which are challenging, we acknowledge that costs fluctuate, but we believe these will be manageable. If our current cost structure persists, we won't incur any debt and will see revenue growth. Importantly, we've demonstrated that we're not constantly shifting from one merger or acquisition to another; instead, we are consistently investing in our future, which will ultimately yield returns. Regarding costs and Agnico Eagle, I urge you to analyze the depreciation of the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar in relation to the U.S. dollar since the U.S. dollar serves as the benchmark. Real headline inflation is impactful in U.S. dollars without currency depreciation. Depending on the timeframe, the depreciation is roughly about 10%, with the Australian dollar experiencing even greater depreciation. Our predictive cash flow, along with all-in sustaining and total cash costs, keeps us comfortably within our range when adjusted for inflation regarding Agnico. Simultaneously, we are focusing on long-term investments rather than merely completing transactions. We're addressing some challenges in Nevada, Porgera, and Tanzania. As shown during Investor Day, we are incurring an additional cost of about $150 per ounce above our typical sustaining capital due to historical neglect of planned maintenance in Nevada, which we are now addressing. We have expanded reserves through organic growth, adding approximately 110 million ounces of gold equivalent — which includes copper and gold life-of-mine schedules. The impact of this growth will ultimately depend on our success in replacing and extending our plans, which will help mitigate increases in all-in sustaining costs. Currency fluctuations provide some advantages; however, most of our operations are dollar-denominated. Given our scale, particularly outside of substantial operations in Canada and Australia, comparison should reflect the distinctions between various markets. I see Graham would like to contribute further to this discussion.
Graham Shuttleworth, CFO
I think you've addressed it well, Mark. The only additional point I would make is that our production forecast is set to increase over the next few years. With this rise in production, we anticipate a reduction in our costs.
Josh Rales, Analyst
This is extremely helpful. Thank you for your excellent management. The quality of these calls is remarkable.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Thank you for that, Josh. As you know, we're always available if you call in to the team to help you get those models clear.
Operator, Operator
And the last question is from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
John Tumazos, Analyst
Could you explain the organizational benefits as you simplify without Donlin and potentially Hemlo, Tongon, maybe you save $2 million a month of exploration costs without Donlin, that you free up exploration personnel, admin resources, maybe reclamation personnel down the road, divesting the older mines. Just tell us how it makes your life easier.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
It's great to hear from you, John. As always, you're the last question, but not the least important. We maintain a consistent exploration budget regardless of fluctuations in gold prices. Our mineral resource management and exploration teams compete for that budget, which helps us focus on the quality of our portfolio. Over the last few years, we've streamlined our exploration team. As you know, we've closed or dealt with longstanding projects like El Indio and shifted to a new, more focused portfolio of targets. Donlin has its own dedicated team, and we've managed that process alongside Christine and her team with NOVAGOLD. Christine is looking forward to spending more time focusing on North America and our portfolio rather than being in Alaska, which will free up executive time. Similarly, for Tongon, we plan to sell the asset along with the team that manages the mine. Our organizational structure is diverse yet flat, ensuring that any buyer can acquire the existing management team if they choose. We intend to keep our exploration efforts active in Ivory Coast, where we have exciting new projects on the opposite side of the country from Tongon. We're also pursuing generative work in Chile, with emerging projects in Peru, Argentina, and some new ones in Ecuador. There's plenty to keep us occupied. We're addressing smaller high-cost assets, which are at the higher end of our portfolio, and we anticipate reducing costs while maintaining our production profile. I hope that clarifies things.
Operator, Operator
There currently are no further questions in the conference call.
Mark Bristow, President and CEO
Thank you. Can we wrap up? Thank you very much, everyone. Thank you, those on the line for taking the time. I know it's been a busy day with multiple presentations. I appreciate those who have actually made the time to come in and visit. For those who are here, we've got some snacks, and you can catch up with the team next door. Feel free to stay on. Thank you again, and we'll be speaking to you most of you, I think, maybe in Barcelona next week. Cheers.
Operator, Operator
This concludes today's event. Should you have additional questions, please contact the Barrick Investor Relations team. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.