Earnings Call Transcript - BATRA Q2 2023

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Liberty Media 2023 Q2 Earnings Call. As a reminder, this conference will be recorded on August 4. I would now like to turn the call over to Shane Kleinstein, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Shane Kleinstein, Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning. Before we begin, we'd like to remind everyone that this call includes certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties including those mentioned in the most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q and registration statement on Form S-4 filed by Liberty Media and Atlanta Braves Holdings with the SEC on June 8, 2023. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this call, and Liberty Media and Atlanta Braves Holdings expressly disclaim any obligation to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in expectations or events, conditions or circumstances on which such statement is based. On today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures for Liberty Media, SiriusXM and Atlanta Braves Holdings, including adjusted OIBDA and adjusted EBITDA. The required definitions and reconciliations for Liberty Media, SiriusXM and Atlanta Braves Holdings Schedules 1 through 3 can be found at the end of the earnings press release issued today, which is available on Liberty Media and Atlanta Braves Holdings website. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Greg Maffei, Liberty's President and CEO.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Thank you. Good morning. Speaking on today's call, we have Formula One's President and CEO, Stefano Domenicali, along with Liberty's Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer, Brian Wendling. During the Q&A session, we will also address questions related to Atlanta Braves Holdings, with the Braves management available as well. To start with some corporate updates, Atlanta Braves Holdings began trading as a C Corp on July 19. We believe this split-off will better showcase the value of the Braves and its real estate. For instance, the BATRA A shares and the K shares have increased by 38% since the split was announced last November. We have also settled all remaining intergroup interests associated with this split-off. Today marks the first day of trading for our new trackers, and we anticipate that more focused equities and greater future flexibility will enhance trading performance and simplify tracking for investors. Beginning with Liberty SiriusXM, this simplified tracker now consists of an 83% interest in SIRI, cash, and debt. We continued to reduce debt in the second quarter, retiring the remaining $275 million of our two and one-eighth exchangeables for SIRI. We plan to exchange the 1.8 million new BATRA shares at LSXM for debt retirement shortly. We maintain our focus on streamlining the SIRI and LSXM structures. In terms of SiriusXM's performance, we reported strong financial results with an improvement over the first quarter, as anticipated. There was a sequential improvement in self-pay net ads, and we expect a positive back half on aggregate. SIRI has also achieved a historically low churn rate of 1.5%, with efforts concentrated on enhancing efficiency and cost structure, which will positively impact EBITDA in the coming quarters. During the quarter, SIRI raised its full-year free cash flow guidance by $50 million to $1.15 billion. We have made significant progress in lowering the streaming cost per customer acquisition, now down 20% from the previous year. Data indicates that this half is a significant accelerator for in-car conversion. We are also progressing with our next-generation SXM mobile app, set to launch this fall. Sirius is focusing on bolstering its in-car position, particularly with EV manufacturers, exemplified by our agreement with Volvo. Regarding the Formula One Group, our assets include F1 ownership and related motorsport assets, including the property in Vegas. In the quarter, we effectively repurchased $1.1 million FWONA shares while settling intergroup interests previously held at LSXM for $6,750 a share. F1 is experiencing unprecedented engagement with its content across platforms. Stefano will share more statistics shortly, but we continue to achieve sellouts at nearly all races. The Sprint weekends are driving year-over-year growth in viewership. For instance, the total audience at SPA across race, sprint, shootout, and qualifying was higher compared to last year's Belgian GP. We have seen significant growth in U.S. viewership on ESPN, surpassing the 2022 average, alongside strong F1 TV performance. The 2023 season has already recorded three of the four largest live audiences in F1 history on U.S. TV, including the Miami, Monaco, and Canadian GPs. Almost all of our races have averaged more than 1 million viewers in the U.S., which is remarkable. Financially, OIBDA saw a slight quarter-over-quarter increase despite having one fewer race, due to better operating leverage on team payments and freight. As for LVGP, excitement for the race builds, as indicated by the momentum across social media platforms. In July, LVGP garnered over 11 million social impressions and over 1 million engagements. The Las Vegas team is organizing an event marked by unprecedented complexity and scale, aiming to be the largest and arguably the most premium sporting event of 2023, reflecting our goals for our Grand Prix events. Preparations are on track, and despite inflationary pressures, we do not expect any changes to our earlier revenue and profitability assumptions. We are increasing capital expenditure estimates for the Paddock building and track work, and Brian will provide additional details. We remain confident in the return profile of this incredible project, which supports the additional capital investment we're making. We have already received inquiries regarding the use of the Paddock building next year and look forward to sharing our commercial plans once they are finalized. We anticipate gaining valuable insights from our inaugural race and are committed to keeping Las Vegas at the forefront for many years to come. Now, regarding Liberty Live Group, Live Nation has recorded its strongest second quarter ever and is optimistic about continued growth through the end of the year and into 2024. Revenue for the quarter increased by 27%, with AOI rising by 23% compared to the previous year. This growth was fueled by strong international demand, presenting a significant opportunity for live events. International fan engagement increased by 46%, and more artists are touring globally. Furthermore, our OCESA acquisition in Mexico is exceeding expectations, with overall attendance and per fan profitability both up by double digits for the quarter at Live Nation. Now, turning to the Braves, which is now a standalone public company. Business continues as usual in Braves country. We have seen strong momentum in fan demand, with 96% of our ticket capacity sold season to date, tying for the best in MLB. We've achieved 40 sellouts already, the fastest we've ever reached this milestone in a season, supported by increased revenue from Truist and concessions, which are up despite shorter game times. We announced a multi-year jersey patch sponsorship with Quikrete. The Braves currently lead the NL East and the entire MLB. A franchise record of eight players participated in the All-Star game, including all members of our infield. All eight players are signed through 2023, with most having extensions through 2025. The Battery is also growing, with adjusted OIBDA for the mixed-use development up 18% in the first half compared to last year. I will now hand the floor to Brian for more insights on our financial results.

Brian Wendling, Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer

Thank you, Greg. And good morning, everyone. My remarks will mainly focus on the balance sheet figures as of June 30, adjusted for the split-off that was completed on July 18 and the reclassification of our tracking stocks that was completed yesterday. At quarter end, and adjusted for the split-off and reclassification, Liberty SiriusXM Group had attributed cash and liquid investments of approximately $331 million, excluding $51 million of cash held at SiriusXM. There's also $1.1 billion of undrawn margin loan capacity at the parent level related to our SiriusXM margin loan. As of August 3, the value of our SiriusXM stock was $16 billion. We have $1.5 billion in principal amount of debt against these holdings. Total Liberty SiriusXM Group attributed principal amount of debt is $11.7 billion, which includes $9.5 billion of debt held directly at SiriusXM. In April, Liberty SiriusXM settled the remaining $275 million of its 2.125% SIRI exchangeables. Due to the net paydown at both SiriusXM and Liberty SiriusXM during the quarter, the total attributed Liberty SiriusXM group debt was down $360 million from $11.7 billion. This amount is exclusive of the debt reduction due to the reclassification. The 1.375% basket convertible notes mature in October, and the $199 million principal remains on these notes. Liberty SiriusXM plans to exchange its 1.8 billion BATRA shares with one or more third-party lenders to pay down debt in the near term. Turning to the Formula One Group: at quarter end, adjusted for the split-off and reclassification, Formula One Group had attributed cash, liquid investments, and monetizable public holdings of $1.4 billion, which includes $1.1 billion of cash at F1. In connection with the reclassification, approximately $100 million of cash along with certain private and public assets previously held at Formula One Group were attributed to the Liberty Live tracking stock. This includes $33 million of ETF and public assets that were liquidated prior to the reclassification, which contributed to the $100 million of cash. Total Formula One Group attributed principal amount of debt was $3 billion, including $2.4 billion of debt at F1, leaving $536 million at the corporate level. F1's $500 million revolvers remained undrawn, and their leverage at quarter-end was 2.2x. As mentioned last quarter, the margin on F1's term loan B stepped down to 3% from 3.25% effective at the beginning of May. The F1 business is best analyzed on an annual basis due to variability in the year-over-year race calendar. However, I will provide a couple of brief remarks on their quarterly results. During the quarter, F1 recognized a lower proportion of season-based income due to six out of 22 races occurring during the period compared to seven out of 22 that occurred in the prior year period. F1 also recognized proportionately less team payments given one less race, which was partially offset by expected increased team payments for the full year compared to 2022. Team payments are best viewed on a year-to-date basis and represented 63% of pre-team EBITDA in the first half of the year. Formula One generated modest OIBDA growth in the quarter despite one less race being held, alongside incremental investments and growth initiatives not accounted for in the prior year period, such as the Vegas race and F1 Academy, as well as costs associated with the canceled Imola race. Because the Imola race was canceled on the Wednesday of race week, the majority of race-related costs regarding planning, logistics, and setup had already been incurred. On a full-year basis, we estimate the impact on adjusted OIBDA from the cancellation of Imola to be modest at less than $20 million. Note that other costs of F1 revenue and SG&A are best viewed as a percentage of total revenue, with other costs being 24% of total revenue in the quarter, consistent with our historical average. The LVGP-related revenues and other costs will largely be incurred in the fourth quarter when the race occurs. For the quarter, SG&A included $7 million of costs associated with LVGP. On Las Vegas, as Greg mentioned, there are no changes to our revenue and profit expectations for the race in year one. Our Paddock building is now 85% complete, with expected CapEx related to the Vegas race, including both the Paddock building structure and track-related expenses projected to be close to $400 million, of which approximately $155 million has been incurred in the first half of the year. The majority of CapEx spending will occur at the corporate level related to the Paddock building, while land and building expenditures are separate from Formula One. Track-related CapEx incurs at the F1-OPCO level. Our team has managed this project on a compressed timeline and in an inflationary environment, leading to some increased costs. Much of this cost increase comes from track-related expenses aimed at minimizing disruption to businesses along the Strip, in addition to investments in security enhancements to ensure a quality fan experience. We are working closely with our local Vegas partners, and the speed and efficiency with which we have completed this project reflects these strong relationships. We're excited about our investment in Las Vegas and the associated opportunities for both the Grand Prix and year-round activities at the Paddock building. At the Liberty Live Group, adjusted for the reclassification, we see attributed cash, liquid investments, and monetizable public holdings of $204 million, which includes ETF assets contributed from Formula One Group. In connection with the reclassification, Formula One Group contributed private assets with a fair value of approximately $380 million, measured when we finalized our S4 filing. We do not anticipate providing ongoing updates on the value of these private assets. Additional disclosure on the composition of these assets can be found in the asset list posted to our website. There is $400 million of undrawn margin loan capacity at Liberty Live Group related to our Live Nation margin loan, and as of yesterday, the value of our Live Nation stock held at Liberty Live was $6 billion. We have $920 million in principal amount of debt against these holdings, and Liberty and our consolidated subsidiaries are in compliance with their debt covenants at quarter-end. Looking briefly at the Braves.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Let me interrupt you for one second, Brian. As we turn to the Braves, I think I misspoke too early in the morning here and said it was 56% capacity; the Braves stadium is actually at 96% capacity. Sorry, go ahead.

Brian Wendling, Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer

Thank you, Greg, for clarifying that. So looking at the Braves, revenue growth reflects that 96% capacity in the quarter, with more regular season home games in the period as well as increased game attendance growth and related revenues, including ticket and concession revenue. Battery mixed-use revenue also grew due to increased rental income from existing and new tenants. Baseball operating costs grew in the second quarter, primarily due to increased player payroll, higher variable stadium operating costs due to the increased attendance, and payments under MLB's revenue-sharing plan. At quarter-end, adjusted for the split-off, they had attributed cash and liquid investments of $131 million, excluding $52 million of restricted cash. Atlanta Braves Holdings had attributed principal amount of debt of $543 million. And with that, I'll turn it over to Stefano to discuss Formula One.

Stefano Domenicali, President and CEO, Formula One

Thanks, Brian, and good morning to everyone. We are already over halfway through the 2023 Formula One season. I would first like to congratulate Red Bull and Max Verstappen on their incredible performance this season, breaking an all-time record for consecutive wins. The title field behind them has produced incredible action for all our fans, and I believe the gap will continue to close over time for all the teams. In Silverstone, the top six finishers crossed the line within 13 seconds of one another. Hungary had one of the most thrilling qualifying rounds to date, with the top six all within three-tenths of a second. McLaren's performance improvements following recent upgrades have delighted fans, particularly with their second-place podiums at Silverstone and Hungary, alongside a strong drive from Piastri. Our fans are accessing F1 content across multiple media platforms, with the global audience averaging 68 million through the first eight races. In growth markets like the U.S., viewership over the same period is up 5% on ESPN, with events like Monaco growing by 29% compared to last year's U.S. viewership. The Sprint Series has continued to generate excitement on the track and drive viewership growth. For instance, our first sprint of the season at Azerbaijan saw total weekend viewership across race and sprint events increase by 10% versus 2022. We recognize that sports fans today engage with content across a variety of platforms, including linear, digital, and social media. Across our social channels, F1 reached 64.6 million followers as of Q2, up 29% year-over-year. F1 continues to adapt and expand our content to meet different platforms and serve all segments of fans. For example, at the Hungarian Grand Prix, we piloted our first F1 broadcast for kids in partnership with Sky UK in Germany. In just one day, social media coverage for the announcement and the presentation featuring driver avatars reached more than 45 million users with 93 million impressions and hugely positive sentiment. F1's celebrity presence continues to draw in fans. A social post featuring Shakira at the Spanish Grand Prix generated over 50 million impressions and more than 2 million engagements. As filming for the Apple TV movie began, a post from Silverstone featuring Brad Pitt and Damson Idris at the back of the grid generated 2.8 million engagements and over 7,000 comments. The social efforts shown when Yuki Tsunoda and his AlphaTauri teammates helped the community after the flood in Faenza generated almost 15 million social impressions. F1 is considering how to advance our audience measurement approach to better capture a wider viewership and engagement for the future. Our discussions with commercial partners are successfully focused on these broader engagement metrics. The promoters continue to enhance the quality of Grand Prix events and invest in enriching the overall fan experience. We have seen the results of these efforts with continued sellouts, many at increased capacity. The Canadian and Silverstone Grand Prix both set new attendance records with crowds of 345,000 and 480,000 respectively. Silverstone's attendance was up 20% compared to last year, partly due to cultivating the fan experience throughout the race weekend, including events like Calvin Harris's performance on Thursday evening before on-track activity began. We continue to work with our promoters on these efforts. There are growing ways to engage with F1 outside of race weekends, including our F1 Arcade licensees announcing further expansion plans, with new sites opening in Birmingham, UK, in December and Boston in May 2024. The flagship London location grew 16% in Q2 versus the prior quarter, with an average of over 7,000 visitors per week. In June, EI launched the F1 23 video game. In its first week, the game ranked #2 and #3 in U.K. Games and Global's Steam sales charts, respectively. F1-related podcasts are increasingly providing content to engage our fans. A new Formula Y podcast launched in May and reached #1 in the U.S. and U.K. sports podcast channels, performing particularly well among newer fan cohorts, with 35% of its audience in the U.S. and 30% female. I'll provide an update on our commercial agreements. Recently, we announced a further extension of the Austrian Grand Prix through 2030. Hungary has also extended through 2032, with commitments made by the promoter to significantly invest in their physical infrastructure, including a new pit building and grandstand by 2026. We announced a record-breaking 24 races Championship calendar for 2024, with the return of the race in China for the first time since 2019. F1 is progressing towards greater regionalization of the calendar where possible, including back-to-back races in Japan and China, as well as Abu Dhabi and Qatar. This improves operational efficiency and reduces unnecessary delays in travel, particularly from a freight perspective. On media rights, we entered into a multi-year agreement with Tencent to stream F1 events across its digital platform. This complements our existing coverage in China on CCTV. Additionally, we continue to grow F1 TV Pro and access subscribers, particularly strong in the U.S. market. Heineken has extended their global partnership through a new multi-year deal, and they will also be the official title partner of the Formula One Heineken Silver Las Vegas Grand Prix. The relevance of F1 brands continues to generate sponsorship interest, including leveraging our sustainability strategy and new inventory like Las Vegas. We are focused on delivering incremental value to our existing sponsors while further developing our strong pipeline of new commercial partners. We are just over three months away from the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix. This event will offer an unparalleled guest experience, combining the thrill of Formula 1 racing with premium live entertainment, musical acts, world-class culinary offerings, and more. We continue to expand our fan offerings with new partnerships, ensuring all partner venues meet the high-quality standards our fans expect and deserve. Recently, we announced additional hospitality experiences including the Heineken House, Club SI, Club Paris, and a partnership with Hilton Grand Vacation to host a premier on-track hospitality suite. Musical acts will include Jay Baling and Major Lazer, with a headlines set at the Sphere Stage by T-Mobile Zone featuring many high-profile music and DJ acts yet to be announced. Liquid Death has been named as the official event partner to provide fans with a sustainable alternative to single-use plastics through their beverage offerings. Formula One and Liberty have made a long-term commitment to race in Las Vegas and have invested meaningful capital to make it happen. The team, led by Renee Wilm, has forged incredible partnerships with the local community, all of whom stand to benefit from the tremendous economic value we believe Formula One will bring. The Las Vegas team worked with third parties to gather market data and estimate the economic impact of the Las Vegas race in year one will exceed $1.2 billion. This is in addition to meaningful community efforts focused on food insecurity, water conservation, and access to education in Southern Nevada. We are proud of our team's efforts and confident that the Las Vegas Grand Prix will make waves in the global sporting community this November. F1 continues to progress on sustainability and diversity and inclusion initiatives. The F1 Academy began its inaugural season in Austria in April and has completed six out of seven races. The season finale will take place in Austin alongside the F1 race with Marta Garcia leading the championship. Last week, we announced that all 10 Formula One teams will have F1 Academy drivers and liveries for the 2024 season, demonstrating the depth of support across the F1 community for the importance of grassroots initiatives that build the next generation of women in racing, which will benefit the entire F1 ecosystem. F1 has advanced initiatives this season in environmental sustainability. In Austria, we piloted an energy-efficient power system that delivered a 90% reduction in carbon emissions from operating the Paddock pit lane and F1 broadcast area. Additionally, a new fleet of biofuel trucks operated by DHL is delivering our production and technical equipment for the European events of the 2023 season, which we expect will reduce our road freight emissions by a minimum of 60% compared to traditional fuel vehicles. Formula Two and Formula Three cars are successfully running on 55% advanced sustainable fuels this season, and we remain on track to introduce 100% advanced sustainable fuels to Formula One in 2026. We are encouraged by the increasing awareness and openness of governments to include advanced sustainable fuels in their policy roadmaps to net-zero, something F1 will continue to pioneer. We look forward to an exciting rest of the season and, of course, a well-deserved summer break for our teams. The season will resume in the Netherlands later this month before heading to Monza. The competition is getting closer on the grid. We have a three-month sprint series coming up in Austin, Qatar, and Brazil. Our business is in an incredibly strong position, both financially and commercially, and I look forward to updating you on our progress. Avanti tutta! "Full speed ahead." And now I will turn the call back over to Greg. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Thanks, Stefano and Brian. Our Annual Investor Day will be Thursday, November 9, in New York. Please save the date. Additional details will be provided soon. We hope to see many of you there. We appreciate your continued interest in Liberty Media and Atlanta Braves Holdings. And with that, operator, I'd like to open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Stephen Glagola with Cowen & Company.

Stephen Glagola, Analyst

Greg, can you help us better understand monetization of the Las Vegas Paddock outside of the Grand Prix in 2024 and beyond? What type of events do you plan on holding? Any early indicators on sponsorship interest outside of the Grand Prix? And do you expect this OIBDA contribution to match or exceed the Vegas Grand Prix over time?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

I will manage expectations first and say I do not expect it will exceed the amount we will make in the Grand Prix over time. With that, we have Renee Wilm here, who's running our Las Vegas effort. I'll let her comment on some of the things we're thinking about outside the race.

Renee Wilm, Director of Las Vegas Effort

Thanks, Greg. Happy to. We are just beginning to really explore what is available for us on a go-forward basis with the building. We have had several inbound requests. Think about Super Bowl parties, or events related to racing like karting or high-end supercars. Las Vegas is the convention center of the world, and there is a lot of interest in our state-of-the-art LEED certified building. Many of our partners in the F1 ecosystem are very interested in collaborating with us throughout the year. More to come in the following months.

Stephen Glagola, Analyst

And if I could squeeze in one more. How should we interpret what appears to be some recent conflicting comments from the FIA concerning an early renewal and the concrete agreement, and the appetite for new team entrants? Do you see any conflicts of interest with your vision of the sport long-term versus what the FIA views?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

I'll make a statement or two, then I'll let Stefano add. I think there's little distance between Stefano's and my views, which is we have 10 great teams. We're very excited about what they’re doing. There is a process to add more teams, but the bar is very high, and it's unclear what an 11th team would add in value. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty among other teams regarding an 11th team. The FIA and we have had productive discussions about all this. Do we agree on everything every moment? No. We discuss, and we work things out. Stefano, what would you add?

Stefano Domenicali, President and CEO, Formula One

Greg, you said it perfectly. As we start the process, we are waiting for the final conclusion. But as always in this discussion, we will find an agreement together because, as you noted, the value of the teams and the business today is very, very strong. That decision and information will come very soon, likely within the month of September.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Ben Swinburne with Morgan Stanley.

Benjamin Swinburne, Analyst

On F1, what's your sense of optimism about potentially signing a concrete agreement with the teams this year, which would be a couple of years early? And Stefano, when you look at the product this year, being dominated by one team, how do you view that in light of all the changes you've made to drive more parity into the sport? Is this a step backward, or just how the sport evolves unpredictably over time? Lastly, I just had a Braves question. Some teams are leaving Diamond and moving to different business models in other sports. What does that tell you about the Braves' opportunity over the next couple of years as the Diamond process plays out?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

I'll let Stefano take the first two and I'll tackle the Diamond question, and obviously, Derek, feel free to add. Stefano, why don't you begin?

Stefano Domenicali, President and CEO, Formula One

Yes, thanks, Greg. First of all, I think it’s the right moment to celebrate the incredible job the team is doing with that car. The gap among teams is simply remarkable. However, this is a part of Formula One, and this dynamic is a natural phase of the sport's evolution. I believe that in the next couple of years, the technical gaps will reduce, but if someone is excelling, we should acknowledge their legacy. In some new markets, this also develops an incredible legacy. Winning so many races shows true leadership. So I see nothing negative from this perspective. Regarding the Concorde agreement, discussions are progressing very positively due to the current momentum of the sport. There's no rush, but things are looking favorable for a conclusion, both with the teams and the FIA.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

On the Braves, I’ll share my thoughts, and Derek, feel free to add. We are fortunate to hold a robust market of 14 million broadband households and a fan base that deeply appreciates our successful team. With a decent deal from Diamond or Valley, we think our situation is much more profitable than many others, who might have less appealing territories, fan bases, or revenue-plus-cost ratios. That's why, during the bankruptcy proceedings, they terminated the executory contract by Valley. I do not anticipate similar outcomes for us, due to the strengths we have mentioned. However, we are aware of other alternatives if needed, given the strength and demand for our products in the territory. Derek, do you want to add anything?

Derek Schiller, Executive at Braves

Greg, you articulated that very well. I would add that we and Valleys are adhering to our agreement terms as they stand. We are being paid in full, and we are delivering our rights in full. We don’t foresee any changes in this situation anytime soon. In general, large sports content continues to be in high demand, suggesting a good long-term outlook regardless of developments.

Benjamin Swinburne, Analyst

You guys want to comment on the next season today, just kidding.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Vijay Jayant with Evercore.

Vijay Jayant, Analyst

A couple of questions for me. On Liberty Live, regarding those private assets that moved from Formula One, do you have any ATBs there? Broadly, do you have some liquidity at Liberty Live? Is there any business strategy involving buying venues or partnering with Live Nation directly to grow a real estate portfolio, or is it strictly focused on discounts if that continues? And regarding Formula One, I don’t want to nitpick, but the team payments seem lower than I anticipated while implying around a $1.3 billion amount. I understand your conservative approach, but with one less race, is there anything affecting the 2Q estimate?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Okay, Vijay. That's a lot to unpack, but thank you. On Liberty Live, we are searching for opportunities as there is currently no ATB in this business. We are exploring ventures we believe will be beneficial and potentially fit with Live Nation's strategy. It provides us with flexibility, and real estate is certainly of interest, especially in venues anchored by Live Nation events. Our liquidity in that area is rather limited, so we will have to employ creative approaches, but we have ideas. Regarding Formula One, I noted a few items. We feel good about the rest of the year, but analysis regarding payments and cash flow could impact third and fourth quarters. Brian, do you want to expand?

Brian Wendling, Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer

Yes, I’d say that there was some noise in the second quarter due to rephasing and the impact of Imola. I suggest looking at the first two quarters together and considering the overall percentage. We mentioned earlier that we were at 63%.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Bryan Kraft with Deutsche Bank.

Bryan Kraft, Analyst

Greg, I had a couple of questions for you regarding Liberty Sirius. First, many investors ask why Liberty hasn't made its Sirius shares available for borrowing to increase market efficiency around that spread. Could you share the rationale behind this decision? Second, I understand the leverage sensitivity and potential merger of Liberty Sirius with SiriusXM. Would it make sense for Liberty Sirius to sell some of its SIRI shares to get closer to the 80% level, bringing in cash and using that to reduce Liberty Sirius's debt? Are there any restrictions preventing or discouraging this?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

I'll let Ben Oren answer the first part, but I'll respond to the second one first. We are concerned about the leverage, but I believe SiriusXM could support the leverage of the combined businesses. However, we'd rather not sell shares due to the low tax basis we have, which would be tax inefficient. We expect to support the merger. We regularly assess ways to manage our leverage and have applied dividends from SiriusXM to reduce it in the past. Ben, can you address the borrowing issue?

Ben Oren, Executive at Liberty

Sure. While we understand the borrowing concerns because it creates volatility, we have consulted closely with legal teams to explore the feasibility of lending out our shares. Currently, there are legal and tax measures making it inefficient for potential users. For now, we won't lend our shares but will continue evaluating the situation. Never say never.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

David Karnovsky, Analyst

Regarding the increased CapEx for Vegas, could you remind us what the original projection was for the Paddock? Also, can you expand on the drivers behind the increased spending? About race promotion, I noticed that revenue is up compared to last year in Q2; was the mix of races the same minus Imola? Could you comment on any drivers there—any one-offs or material step-ups to be aware of?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Brian, can you provide updates on the CapEx?

Brian Wendling, Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer

Yes, we haven’t provided a specific CapEx number. We indicated it would likely be close to or slightly above the land purchase price.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

So we have not given a firm number yet, we've just indicated it will exceed that amount.

Brian Wendling, Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer

Yes, approximately $400 million is what we are estimating.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Could you please repeat the second question for clarity?

David Karnovsky, Analyst

Sure! It was regarding race promotions. The press release noted it was up year-over-year, and I believe you had the same mix of races, minus Imola. Any drivers we should be attentive to concerning one-offs or material step-ups?

Brian Wendling, Chief Accounting and Principal Financial Officer

No, it reflects regular contractual increases, offset by the impact of the Imola race going away.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Laszczyk, Analyst

Perhaps for Greg and Renee, on Las Vegas. I appreciate your focus for year one on fan experience. However, thinking ahead to years two and beyond, are there specific opportunities around the Grand Prix that have become clearer in the last six months but might not fit in time for this November? I’m looking to understand the long-term vision and profitability opportunity for Las Vegas compared to what we might see in year one.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Yes, we touched on some of this. Both on the revenue and cost sides, there will be opportunities surrounding the GP and events outside it as we proceed into year two. We've rapidly moved, with the F1 team and Renee’s team, to put this in place, which has led to some increased costs. Additionally, there were opportunities we couldn’t capitalize on, such as fan festivals, sporting events, and music events that have the potential for growth surrounding the second GP and beyond.

Operator, Operator

Our last question comes from Marlane Pereiro with Bank of America.

Marlane Pereiro, Analyst

Just quickly on Sirius—Liberty SiriusXM—are there any targets for debt reduction within the next year?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

I mentioned earlier our focus on this issue. We have explored several alternatives involving combinations with SiriusXM, all would lead to combining debts in some form while potentially accumulating more. There is no distinct target since we aren't sure which path we will follow. SiriusXM is a substantial cash flow generator, which is another reason we are not eager to sell our stock. We have a positive outlook on the company’s prospects and its ongoing capacity to produce cash. Any combination sector might have higher leverage for a brief period, but we believe the cash flow will facilitate quick repayment back to our targeted level of 3.5x.

Marlane Pereiro, Analyst

Got it. Are there any factors that might hinder a potential combination?

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

You will have an independent committee at SiriusXM negotiating for their shareholders' considerations, while Liberty will represent LSXM. We hope for a mutual agreement, but there is always the possibility of not reaching consensus.

Marlane Pereiro, Analyst

I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Gregory Maffei, President and CEO

Thank you very much to all our questioners. Thank you to everyone on the line for your interest in Liberty Media. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter, if not sooner. And I think we’re done, operator. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.