Earnings Call Transcript - BG Q3 2023

Operator, Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Bunge Limited Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release and Conference Call. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ruth Ann Wisener. Please go ahead.

Ruth Ann Wisener, Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and thank you for joining us this morning for our third quarter earnings call. Before we get started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion. These can be found in the Investors section of our website at bunge.com under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are posted on our website as well. I'd like to direct you to Slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance and industry conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation and we encourage you to review these factors. On the call this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer; and John Neppl, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Thank you, Ruth Ann, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by thanking the team for delivering another quarter of outstanding results by performing exceptionally well in this highly dynamic environment. Our team remains focused on executing our day-to-day business, effectively utilizing our global footprint and adapting to changing market conditions to meet the needs of our customers, both farmers and consumers. At the same time, the team continued to make good progress on our integration planning with Viterra. During this process, our teams had the opportunity to work with the Viterra team, reinforcing how similar our cultures are and increasing our confidence in the combination and the value it will create. We reached a significant milestone in October, receiving overwhelming shareholder approval for the merger. We continue to engage with the appropriate regulatory agencies and expect to close the transaction in mid-2024. While we will continue to operate as two separate companies until we close, we're looking forward to bringing our teams and assets together to create a premier Agribusiness solutions company. Turning to the third quarter, we delivered strong operating results, driven by refined and specialty oils and processing. We also saw strong performance in our non-core sugar business which John will cover in detail. In addition, since we reported second quarter results, we repurchased approximately $600 million of Bunge common shares, making meaningful progress against the repurchase plan we outlined following the announcement of the Viterra transaction. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year and based on what we see in the market and the forward curves today, we now expect full year 2023 adjusted EPS of at least $12.50 and depending on how market conditions continue to evolve, we see the potential for upside. I'll hand the call over to John now to walk through our financial results and outlook in more detail, and we'll then close with some additional thoughts. John?

John Neppl, CFO

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to the earnings highlights on Slide 5. Our reported third quarter earnings per share was $2.47 compared to $2.49 in the third quarter of 2022. Our reported results include a negative mark-to-market timing difference of $0.14 per share and a negative impact of $0.38 per share, primarily related to acquisition and integration costs associated with our announced business combination agreement with Viterra. Adjusted EPS was $2.99 in the third quarter versus $3.45 in the prior year. Adjusted core segment earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, were $735 million in the quarter versus $740 million last year. Agribusiness adjusted results of $472 million were down compared to last year as a slightly higher performance in processing was more than offset by lower results in merchandising. In processing, higher results in Brazil soy origination, Asia and North America were largely offset by drought impacted results in Argentina. Results in Europe were in line with last year as improved performance in soft seeds was offset by lower results in soy crush. In merchandising, higher results in our global corn value chain, which benefited from the large Brazilian safrinha corn crop were more than offset by lower results in financial services and our global wheat value chain. Higher refining specialty oils results were primarily driven by North America. Higher results in Asia, led by our India business also contributed to the improved performance. Results in South America and Europe were lower. In Milling, higher results were primarily driven by our South American operations, reflecting improved margins due to the combination of lower wheat costs and more favorable channel mix. Results in the U.S. were also higher. The increase in corporate expenses primarily reflected investments in growth initiatives as well as performance-related compensation accruals. Lower other results were related to Bunge Ventures in our captive insurance program. Better results in our non-core sugar and bioenergy joint venture were primarily driven by higher sugar prices, which more than offset lower ethanol prices. Net interest expense of $95 million in the quarter was higher compared to last year, primarily due to higher average variable interest rates. For the first nine months of the year, income tax expense was $495 million compared to $257 million in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to higher pretax income in 2023 as well as a change in geographic earnings mix. Let's turn to Slide 6, where you can see our adjusted EPS and EBIT trends over the past four years, along with the trailing 12 months, reflecting our team's continued excellent performance while also delivering on a variety of growth and productivity initiatives. Slide 7 details our capital allocation of the nearly $1.9 billion of adjusted funds from operations that we generated year-to-date. After allocating $321 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance and environmental health and safety, we had approximately $1.6 billion of discretionary cash flow available. Of this amount, we paid $287 million in common dividends, invested $484 million in growth and productivity related CapEx, which is up significantly from $168 million this time last year, and repurchased $466 million of Bunge shares, leaving $377 million of retained cash flow. In October, we repurchased an additional $134 million of Bunge shares bringing the total amount of repurchases to $600 million since we reported Q2 earnings in early August. This leaves us with approximately $1.4 billion remaining on our existing $2 billion authorization. We expect to complete about half of the authorization prior to the close of the Viterra transaction, with the remainder to be completed within 18 months of that date. As shown on Slide 8, at quarter end, Readily Marketable Inventories, or RMI, exceeded our net debt by approximately $3.2 billion. This reflects our use of retained cash flow to fund working capital while reducing debt. Our adjusted leverage ratio, which reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.3x at the end of the third quarter. Slide 9 highlights our liquidity position. At quarter end, all $5.7 billion of our committed credit facilities was unused and available, providing us ample liquidity to manage our ongoing capital needs. Please turn to Slide 10. For the trailing 12 months, adjusted ROIC was 19%, well above our RMI adjusted weighted average cost of capital of 7.7%. ROIC was 14.4%, also well above our weighted average cost of capital of 7%. Moving to Slide 11. For the trailing 12 months, we produced discretionary cash flow of approximately $2.1 billion and a cash flow yield of 19.2%. Please turn to Slide 12 on our 2023 outlook. As Greg mentioned in his remarks, taking into account year-to-date results in the current margin environment and forward curves, we've increased our full-year 2023 adjusted EPS outlook to at least $12.50 with potential upside depending on how market conditions evolve over the balance of the year. In Agribusiness, full-year results are forecasted to be up from the prior year outlook and in line with last year, as higher results in processing are largely offset by lower results in merchandising. In Refined specialty oils, full-year results are expected to be up from our prior outlook and last year's record performance. In Milling, full-year results are expected to be in line with our prior outlook and significantly down from a strong prior year. In Corporate and Other results are expected to be down from our prior forecast and last year. In non-core, full-year results in our Sugar and Bioenergy joint venture are expected to be up from our prior outlook and higher than last year. Additionally, the company expects a falling for 2023, an adjusted annual effective tax rate in the range of 21% to 23%, net interest expense in the range of $340 million to $360 million, which is down from our prior outlook of $350 million to $370 million. Capital expenditures are in the range of $1 billion to $1.2 billion and depreciation and amortization of approximately $425 million, which is up $10 million from our prior outlook. With that, I'll turn things back over to Greg for some closing comments.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Thanks, John. Before turning to Q&A, I want to offer a few thoughts. So looking at the longer term, the fundamental drivers of our business remain in place. Global population continues to grow and the need for sustainable solutions to meet that demand means the world will continue to look to Bunge to supply essential products and services to the feed, food, and fuel industries. Our strategic combination with Viterra will help us accelerate our long-term growth with greater diversification across customers, assets, geographies, and crops. We're creating a platform with enhanced efficiencies, connectivity, and capabilities across value chains. This will provide us with more optionality and allow us to even better serve the needs of both farmers and consumers regardless of the market environment. In addition, we're continuing to progress on our other important growth initiatives, including enhancing our footprint with targeted greenfield and bolt-on acquisitions, deepening our relationships with customers at both ends of the value chain, strengthening our digital capabilities, and investing in innovative and sustainability-oriented programs and products. In Brazil, we reached an agreement to acquire CJ Selecta, a leading manufacturer and exporter of soy protein concentrate in Brazil. Construction is also progressing well on our soy protein concentrate plant in Morristown, Indiana, and we're nearly ready to begin serving customers from our new highly efficient multi-oil facility in India. To continue to help our customers meet the demand for sustainability and low CI crops, we're executing on regenerative agricultural projects with multiple customers in multiple countries, helping to build sustainable, integrated supply chains and expand global regenerative agricultural practices. For instance, tomorrow, Bunge and CP Foods, a leading Asian feed and food company, will announce a collaboration to develop a blockchain solution for the traceability of deforestation-free soy from Brazil. We're proud of the progress we're making, but also know there's still much to do as we continue positioning Bunge to deliver on our critical mission of connecting farmers to consumers to deliver essential food, feed, and fuel to the world. I continue to be impressed by the energy, collaboration, innovation, and commitment of the Bunge team as we work together and with key partners to find solutions to the world's most pressing food security issues. And with that, we'll turn to Q&A.

Operator, Operator

The first question comes from Andrew Strelzik with BMO.

Andrew Strelzik, Analyst

So I guess my first one, you alluded to some of the upside opportunities for the year. And when you talked last quarter about some of them, I believe there was the thinking that there's even more upside really was more in 4Q than in 3Q. You talked about merchandising opportunities, dislocations, potentially in China. Can you talk about how those are shaping up relative to what you were thinking three months ago or if some of those opportunities have evolved at all where you're seeing the upside potential?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Certainly. I want to highlight the excellent execution by the team, which has been crucial. The situation remains dynamic, but achieving strong results in Q3 and confidently raising our annual forecast showcases impressive execution. We have noticed improvements in crush margins, primarily driven by increased soybean demand. This has enabled us to secure a significant amount of our Q4 crush needs. However, we lack the same clarity regarding Q1 and Q2, which we anticipate will become clearer as we progress through Q4. Globally, we’re still dealing with a tight supply, especially with Argentina's crop being less than half of last year’s production. This situation necessitates increased global crush capacity to meet demand. Additionally, we continue to see robust oil demand in North America, which comes from both food and fuel sectors. This demand has created opportunities despite the volatility in crush and gross margins, which remain strong and have led to increased oil reformulation and imports. These factors will drive our performance in Q4.

Andrew Strelzik, Analyst

Okay. Great. That's super helpful. And then maybe as a follow-up to that, as we think out to next year, and I'm certainly not asking for guidance. But I guess I'm just curious how you think about what's durable from this year and what's not. Certainly, there's a lot of conversation in the market about U.S. crush margins given the curve. Refined oils has been kind of consistently stronger than you anticipated. Brazil's going to have another big crop. So how are you thinking about what could be similar or different in '24 versus '23?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

You bet. I think what will be similar is until we get another look at the South American crop. And while the weather patterns look like they're setting up favorable for South America with an El Nino, that's really not how the planning is starting. So we do need to see that weather happen and see a good crop. But if you can get strong crops. We had a record in Brazil. If we see another record crop in Brazil and then see the crop, I think the U.S. data think that we could see a crop in Argentina on soybeans even back above 22 levels, but that would be about twice what we saw for production this year. That starts to make South America again very competitive globally on soy exports as well as exports to China, but it's on meal and oil. So that will be the one we watch, but remember, we're not going to get that until April or later. So this tightness will continue through Q1. And so as we get more visibility, the first half, we'll see, we'll be able to kind of lock that in and then see how weather plays out here in the second half. And the others ultimately on China, where we look at soybean imports probably to be flat and corn imports to be up. But China is a very savvy buyer and we've seen it can really depend on prices when they'll reload stock. So I think any surprises there could be to the upside on volume and be supportive also on the merchandise side.

Operator, Operator

Next question is from Ben Bienvenu with Stephens Inc.

Ben Bienvenu, Analyst

I want to ask about the buyback. You made good progress already, more than $450 million in the quarter, and it looks like more kind of since the end of quarter close. When you think about kind of your goal of $2 billion within 18 months of the Viterra closing, is that timeline getting pulled forward? And how are you thinking about kind of balancing cash flow as it relates to deploying the cash flows to buyback?

John Neppl, CFO

Yes. Look, I think as of now, we're keeping the timeline fairly steady. Now that could certainly accelerate given the steps we've made already. But when you look at 2024, we've got a pretty robust pipeline of CapEx projects to execute. We had significant increases here in CapEx and a lot of that relates to some big greenfield projects that are underway, and we'll have similar or maybe even slightly higher CapEx next year related to that. We announced CJ Selecta, that will close in 2024. That's going to be a draw as well. We'll see how things shake out on the cash generation side as we go into the year. And then we'll balance that, obviously, with share buybacks and other M&A opportunities that might come up. But ultimately, as we get near the close of the Viterra transaction, we do want to try to target certain leverage ratio at close, and so that might impact timing as well. But whether we pull it forward or not, we still remain committed to hitting the $2 billion.

Ben Bienvenu, Analyst

Okay. Great. And then, Greg, just to revisit Andrew's question around next year. You made a comment that you expect the crush curves to firm in the first half of next year or into 1Q as we move through the fourth quarter. Could you talk about some of the drivers that you see at play there? And then I guess just panning out and thinking about 2024, you mentioned some of the positives or potential upside drivers to strengthen the year. Could you just kind of stack on each side of the ledger, the potential positives and negatives that you guys are paying attention to as of now, so we can be mindful of them?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

In the first half, we anticipate some tightness and have discussed the size of the South American crop. It's important to remember what we experienced this year, which has been beneficial for our global operations. Maintaining a balanced global presence has allowed us to fully leverage our footprint in South America, particularly in Brazil. The record crop there positively impacted both our export and crushing systems, making South America more competitive compared to North America for bean exports. This dynamic resulted in more beans staying in the U.S., where our crushing operations are larger than our export activities, ultimately benefiting our crushing business. If South America sees another record crop, we can expect similar advantages in Brazil, while Argentina, which has been less productive this year, could perform better next year. We're closely monitoring the weather, especially looking ahead to 2024, as several factors introduce uncertainty, including geopolitical issues and ongoing conflicts that could disrupt crops and oil flows. I have full confidence in our team’s ability to execute while focusing on controllable factors, such as government policies related to biofuels. Regulators seem inclined to support the development of these markets, and as we demonstrate our capacity to supply, we believe policies can be adapted to increase demand. Although there will be some volatility in supply and demand as these markets evolve, we see new demand for the industry solidly establishing itself. We also need to keep an eye on weather patterns, particularly El Niño, which could benefit South America, although we're not seeing those effects yet. Low river levels in the U.S. this year made our exports less competitive, but this situation favored our crushing and processing segments. Moreover, China remains a challenging but crucial customer for beans and corn. On the merchandising side, which includes serving our crushing operations, third-party customers, and overall commodity merchandise in corn, wheat, and freight opportunities, there could be upsides from market dislocations. I have strong confidence in the team’s execution, but clarity may diminish in the second half of the year.

Ben Bienvenu, Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. Great. Congratulations on the quarter.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Thank you so much.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Manav Gupta with UBS.

Manav Gupta, Analyst

I wanted to ask you if you've had the opportunity to talk with the larger shareholders regarding the Viterra deal. Have you been able to present them with a proposal that would encourage them to become long-term shareholders of Bunge, allowing them to retain their stock after the lock-in period ends?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. Let me start, John. You can finish. Look, I think one of the things that we were really excited about the Viterra deal and what's great is they've got two great shareholders that really know this business in Glencore and the Canadian pension funds in CPP and BCI. So they wanted equity. In fact, they wanted more equity than we ultimately gave them and they want the ability to buy more equity for the long term because they believe in the power of the combination. They believe in the industry, the important essential role the industry plays and they want to be able to add on to that investment. So that is all laid out in the agreement. They are going to have two board seats each, so they'll have four of our twelve board seats will be from our new shareholders. So we're really excited to be able to get not only the teams together and the asset bases together once we are able to close this transaction. But we're excited to bring those new Board members in and bring that experience in and that knowledge to help drive this business. So just excited about really all aspects of the combination.

Manav Gupta, Analyst

Perfect. My quick follow-up here is, I wanted to understand a little better what you see as a demand for refined versus unrefined soybean oil. And the reason I'm asking this question is, some of these new units are coming up with PTUs. A, the PTUs are not up to the mark, they're struggling. And B, what we have heard from some of the producers is that the PTU would be more for tallow and some of the other very hard-to-process feedstocks. They may not be running unrefined soybean oil through it. So just trying to understand that even with the PTUs, is there a possibility that we continue to see some demand growth on the refined soybean oil side?

John Neppl, CFO

Yes. This is John. We have long anticipated that producers would eventually transition from refined soybean oil to crude soybean oil, but this shift has been slower than we expected. Currently, the new production may have pretreatment capabilities, but the existing units have not fully transitioned yet. Therefore, we expect the demand for refined soybean oil to remain fairly steady for a while, even with growth as new production comes online with pretreatment. We recognize similar trends and believe we can offer effective solutions for both refined and crude soybean oil. Additionally, we believe we have a role in the supply chain concerning low carbon intensity feedstocks and will continue to pursue that to meet the energy needs of our customers.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. And I'd just add one thing. You said that, that margin, right, it will move around between our value chain. You may see some of that move from refined back into the crush with the demand for crude oil. And then I would just also say you hit on an important part that yes, it does take some time to get these units up and running and get the catalyst dialed in. And what we hear from some of the folks as they handle some of these other oils that are more difficult, part of that is using the refined oil for a dilution. So we play a role long term even as they bring in other feedstocks.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from Ben Theurer with Barclays.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

Greg, John, congrats on the results.

John Neppl, CFO

Thank you, Ben.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

So just quickly following up on that acquisition you announced in Brazil, CJ Selecta. Is there any more detail you can provide, i.e., like how much you're going to pay for that so that we can kind of factor that in within our capital allocation assumptions for next year? I care you disclose that number?

John Neppl, CFO

Yes, it's about $600 million, Ben.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

Okay. Perfect. So obviously, in light of that, and thanks for that clarification and putting it into context from a CapEx perspective. So you said $1 billion to $1.2 billion, maybe a bit more next year, we get the $600 million that gets us maybe to close to $2 billion, add on a little bit of buyback. So if we think about the cash flow generation and your dividend policy, which in the past, you've tried to increase that. How should we think about that going forward? Just given the cash outlay you're going to have for that CJ Selecta acquisition plus CapEx plus the buybacks. Fair to assume the dividend might not be on the growth side next year?

John Neppl, CFO

I don't think we can make a definitive statement on that just yet. We remain committed to our dividend as a key element of our returns to shareholders. As we look ahead, we'll evaluate this alongside everything else we have planned and the timing of our share buyback. Our aim is to complete the remaining $400 million by the time the transaction is finalized, which provides us some time to assess the situation thoroughly. Historically, we review this in the first quarter and typically make adjustments as we approach May. We'll follow the same process this year. It's likely too soon to make a judgment, but we do have numerous strong opportunities for capital allocation, which is a positive challenge to have. However, it's still early, and we are indeed committed to our dividend. We understand its significance to our shareholders.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

Okay. Perfect. And then on Argentina, you've mentioned it a couple of times with like the expectation of, well, hopefully getting maybe better supply, etc. But obviously, there's also the political risk lingering in with the upcoming elections and a little bit of the surprise outcome over the last weekend. Can you help us understand in between the two extremes, what the potential impact could be for the industry as a whole and for Bunge in specific?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. I would say that I’m not the best at predicting political outcomes. However, we have been present in Argentina for a long time and have closely collaborated with the government. Agriculture is a significant sector, and we have assisted various administrations in achieving their objectives. Regardless of who is in leadership after the November election, change doesn’t happen instantly; it takes time to implement. We aim to be a supportive partner to the government and we will remain engaged.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

Okay. I guess, that's as much you can say for now. Congrats.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

Adam Samuelson, Analyst

Regarding the refining and specialty oils segment, you mentioned that this business has consistently exceeded expectations, and you've raised the outlook once again. However, the recent performance suggests that the operations in South America, particularly in Brazil, aren't functioning at their maximum capacity. As you look towards the medium-term prospects for refined and specialty oils, it seems that factors like the refining premium in the U.S. might shift towards crushing, depending on the pretreatment processes. Are you adopting a more optimistic medium-term perspective on earnings potential in this area, or what factors might prevent you from further revising the medium-term outlook or profit contribution expectations for this business unit?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. One thing, and I should probably clarify or remind everyone of, I mean, that's a great global business, and we have done a lot of work the last few years to really improve everything, how we're integrated with our value chains on risk management, how we're working with customers and our customer segmentation, how we're working with customers on innovation. And with the supply chain problems that the industries went through, as well as a lot of switching on the oils. Now remember, over 80% still goes to food, even though there's 20% going to fuel or to feed as we're seeing some of that reformulation. But the food industry is very strong there. We added that Avondale refinery in Louisiana this year and we integrated that right into the network, and that's allowing us to import additional seed and tropical oils and serve our food customers here in North America. So overall, the energy demand is important, but there's a strong underlying business there that's executing very well for our customers. And that's both the brands that are the CPG brands, some of the famous brands that you know well as well as in the food service space as well.

Adam Samuelson, Analyst

That's helpful. Can you discuss how the CJ Selecta acquisition relates to your existing relationship with Imcopa, which is also a significant producer of soy protein concentrate in Brazil? Additionally, how do you view the long-term growth potential of that ingredient category?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes, I believe it's a strong fit for us to implement our programs, whether by collaborating with producers to enhance value in both non-GMO and GMO programs. Selecta is a significant supplier to the feed industry and aquaculture, which continues to grow well. We see these areas as complementary. As we develop our Morristown facility, our strategic goal is to establish a solid presence in North America and South America with a cost-effective approach, directly connecting with farmers to create transparent and verifiable supply chains for our customers. This will ultimately lead to lower CI products and enable us to expand in a growing market. The overall meat sector has been soft, but traditional uses in the meat industry remain strong, while we are also witnessing growth in dairy, pet products, and aquaculture. This acquisition positions us well for long-term success in a natural extension of our business. The addition of Selecta fills the last gap in our origination footprint in Brazil, and we aim to support all our producers. Additionally, through our partnership with UPL and Origio, we will be able to introduce regenerative practices and other innovations to our farmers. Ultimately, we aim to continue expanding our footprint where we have opportunities and leverage our strengths while maintaining focus.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America.

Salvator Tiano, Analyst

Yes. So firstly, I wanted to also ask about the CJ acquisition. If I heard correctly, you mentioned it was $600 million. And firstly, I want to clarify because I think some reports from Korea, the price was under $400 million, $350 million or so. So what's the difference between what the seller said and the price you mentioned? And given that it is a substantial acquisition, can you discuss a little bit some of the metrics, perhaps the expected contribution to profitability, the volumes that are being processed or anything else that's relevant?

John Neppl, CFO

Yes. First, Salvator is the Korean owner that announced they only own 65% of the joint venture. They were reporting on the proceeds they were going to receive from the transaction. Regarding the overall situation, we expect early low teens returns, with the potential to reach mid-teen returns on the project, and it will be accretive from day one. Our objective is to grow this over time, as Greg mentioned, considering the markets we should be able to serve from this asset. It complements our current operations well, and the growing European market is an example of a destination for that plant and operation. We are quite optimistic about it, as we believe it will be a solid accretive project for us from day one.

Salvator Tiano, Analyst

Perfect. And I just wanted to follow up a little bit and ask about international crush margins that haven't really been great. And if you can just give us an update where are things today in your key non-U.S. regions versus where they were on average for Q3?

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Sure. If you look at China, crush margins have been volatile all year there. It's very spot. But our team has done a fantastic job. We've had a very good year in China, a better year than last year. And Q3, we actually had a great coordination between our industrial and commercial logistics team ran record volumes for us. And so animal numbers continue to hold in China. So while it continues to be very spot, it looks like some of that will carry into Q4. We talked about Argentina. Of course, you've got about 0 farmer selling right now there. So until we get to new crop, Argentina continues to be a non-event, very tough situation. And then we've seen margins improve in Brazil, and that's really good global demand and the back end of what was that record crop. Now the farmer has been a little sporadic on old crop selling South American farmers were watching and the weather situation developed in North America to ensure that there was going to be a crop there. But then as that crop kind of came home in North America, then we saw some better selling and new crop selling has been pretty slow. So that will be the key to watch there as well.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Thomas Palmer with JPMorgan.

Thomas Palmer, Analyst

Could you provide an update on soybean oil and what you're observing? I know you mentioned it, but we've noticed some pricing weakness in the U.S. over the last month or two. Do you believe this is due to eroding demand or is it more about supply? How do you anticipate this will develop in the next few quarters? It seems like you have a positive outlook on the overall demand, but the current pricing suggests some level of imbalance.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

Yes. As we said, I think the long-term fundamental drivers there of more demand. Food has held in there. In fuel, we know that demand is going to grow as we see RD projects continue to come online. It will be a little choppy depending on how things are running. Crush is running hard. We've got some new crush coming online and the market will have to do some adjustment. But global stocks of oil are fairly balanced. If you look palm still from a production on how it's producing probably going to get tighter in first half and tighten up the global oil situation. And the nearby softness, some of that was driven around RINs in that, and then the meal demand stepped in. And so they will continue to be a bit of a battle on whether meal or oil is going to carry the crush. I don't think it's going to be a straight line to either one as we move forward.

Operator, Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Heckman for any closing remarks.

Gregory Heckman, CEO

All right. Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today, and I appreciate your interest and support of Bunge. Again, I'd like to thank the team for great execution and just the focus on the things that we can't control and what continues to be a complicated world. But we continue to be confident in our ability to execute. Look forward to seeing you again. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.