Earnings Call Transcript - BMA Q4 2023

Nicolas Torres, Investor Relations

Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's fourth quarter 2023 Conference Call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions outlined in our 20-F, filed with the SEC and available on our website. The fourth-quarter 2023 press release was distributed yesterday and can also be found on our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been adjusted according to the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. Since 2020, the bank has been applying hyperinflation accounting in line with IFRS IAS 29 as required by the Central Bank. For easier comparison, figures from previous quarters have been restated under IAS 29 to reflect the cumulative impact of inflation adjustments for each period through December 31, 2023. I will now briefly discuss the bank's fourth quarter 2023 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS460 billion, which is 3,894% higher or ARS448 billion above the third quarter, and 789% or ARS408 billion more than the result from a year ago. The bank's accumulated return on equity and return on assets of 33.2% and 8.7% respectively, remains strong and demonstrates the bank's earnings capacity. In fiscal year 2023, net income amounted to ARS587.7 billion, which is 338% higher than fiscal year 2022. Total comprehensive income reached ARS627 billion and was 438% higher compared to fiscal year 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, net operating income before general, administrative, and personnel expenses was ARS1.3 trillion, up ARS778 billion quarter-on-quarter. Year-over-year, net operating income before general, administrative, and personnel expenses increased by 224%, or ARS915 billion. For fiscal year 2023, net operating income before general and personnel expenses totaled ARS2.84 trillion, 83% higher than in fiscal year 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, provisions for loan losses amounted to ARS18.2 billion, which is 144% or ARS10.7 billion higher than in the previous quarter and increased by 131% or ARS10.3 billion year-over-year. For fiscal year 2023, provisions for loan losses reached ARS45.9 billion, 125% higher than in fiscal year 2022. Operating income after accounting for general, administrative, and personnel expenses totaled ARS1 trillion, reflecting an increase of 189% or ARS680 billion from the third quarter of 2023, and 327% or ARS796 billion more than in the fourth quarter of 2022. In fiscal year 2023, operating income after these expenses amounted to ARS2 trillion, which is 123% higher than in fiscal year 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, net interest income was ARS183.7 billion, 6% or ARS10.9 billion more than in the third quarter of 2023 but down 29% or ARS77 billion from a year ago. For fiscal year 2023, net interest income totaled ARS829 billion, a decrease of 13% compared to fiscal year 2022. Interest income rose by 28%, while interest expenses increased by 70%. In the fourth quarter of 2023, interest income reached ARS573 billion, which is 13% or ARS84.5 billion lower than the third quarter and 7% or ARS45.3 billion below the previous year. Income from interest on loans and other financing hit ARS372 billion, an increase of 36% or ARS98.5 billion compared to the previous quarter, largely driven by a 68% rise in the average volume of private sector loans, partly offset by a decline of 1,211 basis points in the average lending rate. Year-over-year, income from interest on loans rose 73% or ARS157.4 billion. For fiscal year 2023, income from interest on loans and other financing totaled ARS1.1 trillion, a 43% increase from fiscal year 2022. Interest on loans composed a significant portion of total interest income in the fourth quarter of 2023. Additionally, income from government and private securities plummeted by 66% or ARS209.5 billion compared to the previous quarter, and 72% or ARS271.6 billion when compared with the same period last year. In fiscal year 2023, income from government and private securities was ARS1.1 trillion, which is 3% higher than in fiscal year 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, income from repos amounted to ARS84.2 billion, reflecting a 46% or ARS26.6 billion increase over the previous quarter and a 287% or ARS62.4 billion increase compared to last year. FX income totaled ARS182.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, down 50% or ARS182.2 billion from the previous quarter, yet 92% or ARS87.5 billion higher than last year, driven by the 131% depreciation of the Argentine peso against the US dollar and the bank’s dollar positions during the quarter, including dollar-linked and dual bonds. It is worth noting that the bank's long dollar position decreased by 42% during the quarter. For fiscal year 2023, FX income totaled ARS798.2 billion, which is 312% greater than in fiscal year 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, interest expense was ARS389 billion, 20% or ARS95.5 billion lower than in the previous quarter but up 9% or ARS31.4 billion year-on-year. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits decreased by 21% from ARS97.6 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to a 2,750 basis point increase in the average interest rate on deposits, while the volume of private sector deposits increased by 38%. Year-over-year, interest on deposits went up by 9% or ARS31.4 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2023, interest on deposits accounted for 97% of the bank's financial expenses. The bank's net interest margin, including FX, was 33.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023, lower than the 58.7% from the third quarter and the 32.7% from the fourth quarter of 2022. For the fourth quarter of 2023, net fee income was ARS55.6 billion, up 2% or ARS1.2 billion compared to the third quarter of 2023, and increased by 5% or ARS2.4 billion year-over-year. In fiscal year 2023, net fee income totaled ARS220.8 billion, 4% above fiscal year 2022. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value through profit or loss reach a gain of ARS895.2 billion, mainly resulting from the mark-to-market of certain government securities, particularly dual bonds, totaling ARS835.2 billion. In fiscal year 2023, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value through profit or loss amounted to ARS970.2 billion, a 551% increase compared to fiscal year 2022. Other operating income for the quarter totaled ARS25.2 billion, increasing by 45% or ARS7.9 billion compared to the third quarter of 2023. On a year-over-year basis, other operating income increased by 40% or ARS7.2 billion. For fiscal year 2023, other operating income was ARS72.9 billion, up 11% from fiscal year 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's administrative expenses plus employee benefits totaled ARS152.5 billion, which is 50% or ARS51 billion higher than the prior quarter due to higher employee benefits increasing by 35%, and administrative expenses rising by 80%. Year-over-year, these expenses increased by 68% or ARS61.5 billion. For fiscal year 2023, administrative expenses plus employee benefits rose by 22% compared to fiscal year 2022. As of the fourth quarter of 2023, the efficiency ratio improved to 18.6%, down from 23% in the third quarter and 28.6% from a year ago. In the fourth quarter of 2023, expenses increased by 51%, while total income plus net fee income and other operating income rose by 149%. The result from the net monetary position in the fourth quarter of 2023 was a loss of ARS525.8 billion, which is ARS194.8 billion worse than the loss reported in the third quarter of 2023, and 196% or ARS348.4 billion more than the loss reported one year ago. Higher inflation was noted during the quarter, which accelerated by 18.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Inflation for this quarter was 53.3% compared to 34.8% in the third quarter of 2023. For fiscal year 2023, the result from the net monetary position totaled a loss of ARS1.3 trillion, 84% higher than the loss from fiscal year 2022. The overall inflation in 2023 reached 211%, compared to 94.8% in 2022. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's effective tax rate was 31.4%. For the full year 2023, the effective income tax rate stood at 32.5%, higher than the 31.1% from fiscal year 2022. Additional details are provided in note 25 of our financial statements. Regarding loan growth, total financing reached ARS1.8 trillion, a 4% or ARS65.6 billion increase quarter-on-quarter, but decreased by 2% or ARS30 billion year-on-year. In commercial loans, overdrafts showed a significant increase of 66% or ARS114.9 billion, while other categories grew by 30% or ARS74 billion. In consumer lending, personal loans declined by 22% or ARS65.9 billion, and credit card loans fell by 7% or ARS38.4 billion. For fiscal year 2023, overdrafts, documents, and other loans exhibited increases of 88%, 33%, and 48%, respectively. Notably, Banco Macro's market share of private sector loans as of December 2023 was 9.1%. On the funding front, total deposits rose by 9% or ARS290.4 billion quarter-on-quarter, reaching ARS3.4 trillion, but saw a decrease of 16% or ARS663.7 billion year-on-year. Private sector deposits increased by 13% or ARS360.8 billion quarter-on-quarter, whereas public sector deposits decreased by 31% or ARS85.3 billion in the same period. The increase in private sector deposits was driven by demand deposits, which rose by 41% or ARS562.8 billion, while time deposits saw a decline of 23% or ARS313.2 billion. Within private sector deposits, peso deposits fell by 10% or ARS252.6 million, and US dollar deposits decreased by 8% or $107 million. As of December 2023, Banco Macro's transactional accounts comprised approximately 59% of total deposits, and the bank's market share of private sector deposits settled at 6.2%. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's nonperforming loans to total financial ratio reached 1.29%. The coverage ratio, as measured by total allowances for expected credit losses versus nonperforming loans per Central Bank regulations, maintained at 200.91%. Nonperforming loans in the consumer portfolio improved by 13 basis points, falling to 1.35% from 1.48% in the previous quarter, whereas nonperforming loans in the commercial portfolio deteriorated by 6 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching 1.2% compared to 1.14% in earlier quarters. In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro has an excess capital of ARS1.75 trillion, which equates to a capital adequacy ratio of 35.4% and a Tier 1 ratio of 32.8%. The bank aims to utilize its excess capital effectively, and its liquidity remains more than adequate, with a liquid assets to total deposits ratio of 118%. Overall, we have reported another positive quarter, reflecting a solid financial position. Asset quality continues to be under control and closely monitored. We are committed to improving our efficiency standards and will maintain a well-diversified deposit base. Finally, on November 2, 2023, the Central Bank of Argentina sold Itaú Argentina, now Banco BMA, to Banco Macro, which has acquired 100% of the shares along with Banco Itaú Argentina, Itaú Asset Management, and Itaú Valores. The acquisition cost was set at $50 million, which was paid on November 3, and an additional amount will be determined based on the performance of Banco Itaú Argentina and Itaú Valores between April 1, 2023, and the closing date. The outcome of this acquisition is categorized under income from associates and joint ventures, totaling ARS156 billion, as reflected in the fourth quarter of 2023. More details are included in the notes to our financial statements. We would now like to open the floor for any questions you may have.

Ernesto Gabilondo, Analyst

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Gustavo, Jorge, and Nico. Thanks for the opportunity and congrats on your strong earnings. My first question is on your investment securities and FX positions. Can you elaborate on how the positions benefited from the high inflation, the high rates, and the FX? And how should we think about the valuation of these positions in 2024? If we continue to see higher inflation or FX depreciation, should we continue to see positive results? Or how should we think about them? And also related to this question, how much of the Leliq do you continue to hold? Then my second question is on loan growth. I'm pretty sure that Macro will be one of the few banks in Argentina with real loan growth in '23. Having said that, we saw that it was driven by commercial loans, but the retail part continues to be very weak. So how should we think about real loan growth for this year? And for my last question, it's about your ROE. We saw the '23 ROE close around 33%. But again, it was highly driven because of the gains on investments, on securities. So considering that you will have a tougher Q over Q base in '24, how should we think about the ROE in this year? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci, CFO

Hi, Ernesto. How are you? Thank you for your questions. Let's begin with the first one. In the last quarter of 2023, we were anticipating potential issues with Leliq, which led us to transition from Leliq to dual bonds that were yielding inflation or the official FX at higher rates. We assessed that the weakness between the Central Bank and the Treasury was nearly equal, prompting us to be the first bank to alter our portfolio away from Leliq. By the end of November, we no longer held any Leliqs and had shifted to dual bonds. We also benefited from the devaluation of the official FX in December, which positively impacted our fourth quarter results posted recently. In 2024, we plan to convert part of those dual bonds into inflation-linked bonds. However, I cannot provide additional details as this information is not public. As I mentioned earlier, we had no Leliqs as of the end of November. Regarding loan growth, which was your second question, commercial loans performed well. It's important to consider that we are including Itaú’s portfolio, primarily commercial, which clarifies the comparisons and increases shown in the numbers in the press release. Additionally, the ROE we reported for 2023 was impressive. Moving forward, we anticipate a more normalized ROE range between 15% to 20%.

Ernesto Gabilondo, Analyst

Excellent. Super helpful. For '24, we should expect ROEs between 15% to 20%? Or is this something that will start to show up more in '25?

Jorge Scarinci, CFO

I think in a normalized scenario, Banco Macro should have no problem delivering ROEs in the area of 20%. In 2024, it's tough to forecast right now. Let's say around 15% in real terms and we could be fine-tuning this in coming quarters.

Carlos Gomez, Analyst

Hi. Sorry, the line is having technical difficulty, so first of all, congratulations on the result. Can you explain the drivers of the conditions in which you are operating in the first quarter of the year, meaning with relatively high inflation, with much lower swap rates from the Central Bank? What should we expect in the first and second quarter of the year? And then what do you expect to see once we normalize by the end of the year? I'm talking in particular about securities gains and essentially your margin from financial operations. Secondly, if you can give us a bit of an update on what you are going to do with your newly acquired asset, Itaú? When do you expect to integrate it and whether you've seen that there are more assets that come up for sale for you in the coming years? Thank you.

Jorge Scarinci, CFO

Hi, Carlos. I couldn't hear exactly the first part of your question, but the last part of your first question talked about securities. In the first quarter of this year, of course, it is not possible to repeat the spectacular performance we had in the last quarter of last year. So I think we are going to have a more normalized behavior of securities gains in the first and second quarter. Again, it will depend on market conditions, volatility, and of course, bond prices. I mean, we have demonstrated the bonds that we can be switching the portfolio into those that deliver the best results. So I think that the result is going to be good; again, not as spectacular as we saw in the last quarter of last year. In terms of the Itaú merger, I would say that is going to happen in the second half of this year. The legal merger with Itaú is expected to occur then. So in the last part of the year, you are going to see the consolidated normalized numbers, including Itaú in all the figures.

Carlos Gomez, Analyst

Okay. So that is the legal merger. And in terms of operationally, how long do you think that process will take?

Jorge Scarinci, CFO

Sorry, Carlos. Could you repeat that, please?

Carlos Gomez, Analyst

Yes. My apologies again for the line. I was asking when you think you will have the operational merger with Itaú and when will you be using a single brand?

Jorge Scarinci, CFO

Carlos, that is going to come in the second half of the year. Exactly, we believe that it's going to be between August and October, but we still do not have an exact timeline. But for sure, it will be in the second half.

Carlos Gomez, Analyst

Second half, all right. That is good. And going back to the gains from the regional market, again with the swap rate and the case with negative real rates today, what do you think in a normal market would be if these conditions ramp up?

Jorge Scarinci, CFO

I mean, yes, the environment here is negative real interest rates. You have to consider that when you compare the average cost of funds of the bank and the yield that we are getting on loans and on the securities, even though they are still negative in real terms, the margins are quite attractive. Take into consideration that almost 50% of our deposits are close to 0%, the other 50% close to 100%. So we assume that the average cost of funds is in the area of between 55% and 60%. Then you have to assume that loans are used in the area of under the Securities. Therefore, margins still look quite attractive for a banking intermediation tier. And therefore, that's why we continue to increase our funding on the asset side by increasing loans or securities.

Carlos Gomez, Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Nicolas Torres, Investor Relations

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again soon. Good day.

Operator, Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending and have a great day. You may now disconnect.