Earnings Call Transcript - BMBL Q2 2023

Operator, Operator

Hello, and thank you for joining Bumble's conference call. I will now hand the conference over to Cherryl Valenzuela, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Cherryl Valenzuela, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you for joining us to discuss Bumble's Second Quarter Financial Results. With me today are Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO; Tariq Shaukat, President; and Anu Subramanian, CFO of Bumble. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements made on this call today are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and reflect our current expectations based on our beliefs, assumptions, and information currently available to us. Although we believe these expectations are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statements to reflect changes that occur after this call. Descriptions of factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are discussed in more detail in our earnings press release and filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and our subsequent periodic filings. During the call, we'll also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to, and not a substitute for or in isolation from, our GAAP results. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are available in today's earnings press release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.bumble.com. And with that, I'll turn it over to Whitney.

Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO

Thank you, Cherryl, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining our call today. Our second-quarter results demonstrate the strength of our apps and our solid execution on our goals for the year. We delivered a strong quarter with better-than-expected revenue growth, accelerating paying users, and robust profitability. Total Bumble Inc. revenue of $260 million was up 18% year-over-year, driven by Bumble app revenue growth of 23%. Our total paying users increased 20% to reach 3.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, representing a 26% margin. With loneliness on the rise globally to the point that it's been declared an epidemic in the U.S., there is considerable room for each of our apps to grow and have a significant impact on people's lives. We have a well-constructed portfolio of apps to bring people closer together. Within dating, we have an extensive global footprint where we have at least one of the top three apps by download share in over 50 countries. Our focus is on continuing to drive market share gains, opening additional new markets, and driving further depth of engagement and payer penetration. Let me provide an update on each of our apps. I'll start with the Bumble app. Q2 revenue grew 23% to $208 million, driven by continued momentum in paying users. From Q1 to Q2, we added 139,000 payers, a significant acceleration from the 98,000 net adds we reported last quarter. The growth in payers was fueled by strength in top-of-funnel metrics, including new and reengaged users, reflecting the overall health of Bumble's ecosystem and our continued payer optimization efforts. As we've discussed previously, Bumble app's business model is built around generating durable growth. We focus on building preference, particularly with women, for our brand and our product, which in turn drives strong word-of-mouth, downloads, and high engagement. This delivers consistent growth quarter after quarter and is sustainable as we scale. The results are clear. Our core markets continue to grow, fueled both by new registrations and reengaged users. Our newer markets in Western and Southern Europe and key markets in Latin America also continue to perform well. On the product side, I'm proud of how well our team is advancing our vision and roadmap. Let me begin by updating you on some of the initiatives we've discussed previously. First, Compliment, our message-before-match feature, continues to ramp in both usage and revenue contribution. Its unique value proposition has landed well with early adopters. This feature is driving improved brand perception and engagement as Compliment is 70% more likely to get a match. We're continuing to invest in the experience to drive greater awareness and adoption. We are also excited with the traction of Best Bees, our new feature that leverages the power of our new AI algorithm to curate mass recommendations for users. We were pleased with our initial test and decided in mid-Q2 to accelerate our rollout. Best Bees was added to our Bumble Premium subscription tier in late May and is now available worldwide. Early indicators have been positive. After bundling Best Bees into Bumble Premium, we have seen an uplift in both new subscribers and renewals. We also see Best Bees improving chat initiation rates. Best Bees illustrates the practical and powerful ways we are employing AI to improve our customer experience. As I said last quarter, while AI is already core to several initiatives, including the recommendation and personalization experience, as well as our safety efforts, we are now exploring opportunities to bring generative AI into our users' experience. A few examples include providing interactive advice on improving and curating profiles, enhancing the relevancy and compatibility of matches, and preventing toxic behavior. Overall, generative AI will be a catalyst in reducing friction and pain points along the dating journey. At the start of the year, I talked about the foundational engineering work we've done that enables us to be more flexible with our subscription and consumable offerings. Bumble has successfully grown revenue primarily through two subscription tiers, Bumble Boost and Bumble Premium, with the majority of our paying users on the higher-priced tier. Two years since the introduction of Premium, as we look at the needs of our users on our service, it is clear that there are opportunities to further expand our subscription offerings on both ends of the pricing spectrum. We are continuing to test a base subscription tier to create a differentiated experience and more affordable offering that will appeal to Gen Z members. Based on our high-quality user base, we have conviction that there is also demand for a higher-priced product above Bumble Premium. We believe this higher tier will appeal and provide value to existing Bumble members with more serious dating intent. We expect this will also resonate with singles who are not currently using dating apps because they desire more curated experiences. We will start testing this product later this year. Bumble's product momentum is supported by marketing that showcases our brand and mission. According to Morning Consult, Bumble continues to retain the top Net Promoter Score among dating apps for women in the U.S., and this favorable brand awareness translates into valuable customer acquisition opportunities and makes us a highly sought-after marketing partner. I'd like to highlight a couple of recent examples of our marketing team's great work. In late June, we launched Summer of Kindness, our global integrated marketing campaign built around our feature launch of Compliment. The campaign centers around the power of kindness, which is engineered into the Bumble app. To highlight this, we rolled out a film called Kindness is Sexy, as well as outdoor ads, partnerships, and influencer campaigns, spreading Compliment around key cities. Last month, we also kicked off a category-exclusive partnership with Barbie, the worldwide #1 movie of the summer, via a 360 global co-marketing campaign where we encouraged users to have the best day ever by receiving motivation from the film's many Barbie and Ken characters to send compliments on Bumble. We were the only dating app to garner a partnership with Barbie, which is another great example of our strong and differentiated brand. The feedback for both of these launches has been overwhelmingly positive, and I am proud of how well they represent Bumble's mission and values. Now turning to Badoo. The Badoo app and other revenue totaled $52 million in Q2, up 2% year-over-year. This is the first quarter of year-on-year growth for Bumble since the first half of 2021. I'm excited that Badoo's turnaround plan is having the desired impact and the business is on a good path to stabilization. On the product side, we've been modernizing the app, minimizing friction in the user experience and providing our members with new ways to interact that are more in tune with the post-pandemic environment. These efforts have begun to bear fruit with strong new user growth in most of our markets alongside improvements in engagement trends. Monetization continues to improve as well, with sequential paying user net adds of 34,000 and several of Badoo's top markets returning to positive revenue and payer growth this quarter. We plan to build on this momentum in the second half with the brand refresh and continued innovation on its core discovery mechanics to help people instantly connect with the most relevant matches for them. Fruitz also continues to scale. It launched in the U.K., a meaningful first step in expanding beyond this space of French-speaking markets. Early results have been promising, particularly with Gen Z adoption and engagement, and we plan to introduce Fruitz in more markets in the coming months. A key part of our broader growth strategy is to strengthen the ecosystem of connections, whether it's new relationships, established couples, or friendships. Part of my original vision for Bumble has always been building relationships beyond dating. We believe there is tremendous opportunity in this expansion, and we recently took two important steps towards building out that vision. First, we acquired Official, an app that strengthens existing relationships by providing date ideas, mood check-ins, and other features for couples. Official is available in 45 countries and has been downloaded more than 1 million times since its launch. Official helps relationships that start on Bumble, Badoo, Fruitz, or anywhere else maximize their full potential. This opportunity can increase the lifetime value of our customers and open up broader lifestyle business adjacencies. Second, I'm thrilled to announce that our new and stand-alone BFF app Bumble For Friends is now live in several countries, including the U.S. The app is built to create a new way for people to discover meaningful, kind, and fun friendships in their local area. It maintains what people have loved about BFFs and adds a new, easier way to plan group activities. We are launching at an opportune time with more people open to making friends online than ever before. In a recent Bumble for Friends survey, two-thirds of Gen Z respondents shared that making new friends online lessened their loneliness, and we are uniquely positioned to make a difference in this space. We have seen strong early results with the new app. Gen Z engagement is a particular standout. By the end of Q2, our youngest BFF users were spending 34% more time per week in the app compared with the equivalent BFF mode cohort. Over the next several quarters, we'll continue to invest into the experience based on member feedback. We'll also begin testing several tasks for monetization, although we don't expect material revenue contribution this year as we prioritize the user experience. In summary, it has been a productive and rewarding first half of the year. As a company, we have been very customer-centric, nimble, and decisive. We have achieved substantial progress on the product front. We are executing well, and we are continuing to deliver on our strategic priorities. Our strong first half positions us well to achieve our goals across our growing family of apps for the balance of the year and into 2024. Before I conclude, I would like to take a moment to thank Tariq for all of his contributions to the company. He has been a great leader, and we wish him the best in his future endeavors. Thank you, Tariq. And of course, deep gratitude and thanks, as always, to Team Bumble for their unwavering commitment and hard work in support of our mission, and to our customers, partners, and investors for their continued trust and support. And with that, I will turn it over to Anu for a discussion of our financial results and outlook. Thank you.

Anuradha Subramanian, CFO

Thank you, Whitney, and good afternoon, everyone. Our second-quarter results demonstrate the unique appeal of our app and the strong execution of our team. Total revenue growth was robust, driven by product initiatives and international expansion at Bumble app and continued progress towards stabilization of Badoo. On the expense side, we continue to operate with discipline around spend, driving strong free cash flow while investing in the long-term strength of our app. I'll walk you through our second quarter results before turning to our outlook for Q3 and full year 2023. Unless stated otherwise, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. Total Bumble Inc. revenue in Q2 was $260 million, up 18% year-over-year and above our outlook. Total paying users reached 3.6 million, up 20%, with both Bumble and Badoo payers showing sequential and year-over-year growth. Total ARPU was $23.23, down 1%. Revenue from Bumble app was $208 million, up 23%. Bumble app revenue growth was primarily driven by a 28% increase in paying users to $2.5 million. On a sequential basis, we added 139,000 paying users in Q2. Paying user growth was driven by strength in active users and solid improvements in payer penetration. Bumble app's ARPU was $28.21, down 3% year-over-year and up 1% sequentially. The year-over-year decline was primarily driven by geographic mix shift. Now moving on to Badoo app and other. Badoo app and other revenue was $52 million, up 2% year-over-year. Badoo app and other paying users, excluding Fruitz, grew 7% to $1.2 million. On a sequential basis, paying users grew 34,000 in Q2. Badoo app and other ARPU excluding Fruitz declined 5% to $12.83, primarily due to pricing optimization and geographic mix shift. Turning now to expenses. We continue to operate with discipline and efficiency. While we are focused on investing in our apps to bring our brands to market around the world, we are also managing incremental spending in headcount carefully, and we remain committed to expanding margins for this fiscal year and beyond. Total GAAP costs and expenses were $239 million for the quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, excluding stock-based compensation and other noncash or one-time items, our total non-GAAP costs and expenses were $193 million, up 17%. Cost of revenue was $76 million and grew 25%. As a percentage of revenue, cost of revenue was 29% versus 28% in the year-ago period. We have now largely lapsed our compliance with the Google Play store mandate, which began in April 2022. Sales and marketing expenses grew 12% to $64 million. This represents 25% of revenue versus 26% in the year-ago period. We remain diligent in our allocation of marketing spend and continue to see opportunities for leverage in particular from our brand marketing piece. G&A expenses were $29 million or 11% of revenue compared to $29 million or 13% of revenue last year. Product development expenses were $24 million or 9% of revenue versus $17 million or 8% in the year-ago period. Investment in product and technology is a critical driver of our growth, but we maintain a high bar for net headcount additions. Q2 GAAP net earnings were $9 million compared to a net loss of $5 million in the year-ago period. Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, up 23% and above the high end of our outlook range and represented a 26% adjusted EBITDA margin. Now turning to the balance sheet. Our cash position remained strong as we drove free cash flow of $40 million in Q2. We ended the quarter with a cash and cash equivalent balance of $381 million. Our total debt position was $623 million, of which $6 million is due over the next 12 months. Our strong cash flow has enabled us to return excess capital to shareholders. Last quarter, we announced that our Board authorized a $150 million share repurchase program. In Q2, we repurchased 1.3 million shares for a total of $21 million. Now moving on to our financial outlook for Q3 and full year 2023. We are pleased with the results we achieved in the first half of the year and remain confident in our ability to deliver within the previous full-year outlook ranges for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. For Q3, we expect the following: total revenue between $274 million and $280 million, representing a growth rate of 19% at the midpoint of the range. We expect Bumble app revenue to be between $221 million and $225 million, representing a growth rate between 22% and 25%. Our Bumble app revenue outlook includes expectations for sequential net adds of approximately 140,000 to 150,000 in Q3. We are pleased with the turnaround we have seen with respect to Badoo in the past quarter. We expect Badoo sequential net adds to be slightly positive in Q3, similar to Q2 levels. We estimate adjusted EBITDA will be between $71 million and $73 million, representing 26% at the midpoint of the range. With the first half behind us, we are now narrowing our outlook for full year 2023. We estimate total Bumble Inc. revenue of between $1.055 billion and $1.072 billion, representing a growth rate of 17% to 19%. We expect Bumble app revenue to be between $852 million and $863 million, representing a growth rate between 23% and 24%. Our Bumble app revenue outlook includes expectations for full year net adds of approximately 510,000 to 525,000. For adjusted EBITDA, we maintain our expectation of at least 100 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion. In closing, we believe our business remains as strong as ever, and we continue to see momentum across our apps. The authentic focus on kind connections, which is a hallmark of our offerings differentiates us in the marketplace and is demonstrated in our financial results. Our team is operating with discipline and purpose, to deliver value for our users while capturing the tremendous opportunity that we envision for our brand. Thank you for your continued support. And with that, operator, we can open it up for Q&A.

Operator, Operator

Our first question will come from Alexander Steiger with Goldman Sachs.

Alexander Steiger, Analyst

So maybe one for Whitney and one for Anu. Given your recent acquisition of Official and the launch of Bumble for Friends, could you dive a little deeper into your long-term vision of Bumble evolving into an ecosystem of love? What that could mean in terms of future payer growth, conversion opportunities, and retention dynamics? And then for Anu, I know it's too early to talk about 2024, but how should we think about a normalized growth rate beyond 2023?

Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO

Yes, hi, I'll start. Thank you so much for the question. As we've said from day one, Bumble has always been about kind connections at large. We obviously put a huge focus on romantic relationships and dating. But when you look at a person's life of relationships, dating is just one part of that. We really want to be there with someone on their entire relationship journey. So if you look at this relationship spectrum, we want to be with you not just when you meet your partner, but then as you go off the dating app and then have a new relationship. We want to stay with you through that whole journey. When you look at these relationships from a romantic perspective, we're just talking about Official right now, they are cyclical. Most relationships in your 20s and 30s and beyond don't last forever. So we're there when you find love and then as you build that relationship together, it really does turn into a cycle to come back into the dating ecosystem, whether that be Bumble or Badoo. Thank you. To reiterate, our lives are made up of multiple relationships. Bumble has done a phenomenal job of integrating kinder connections and a safer ecosystem into people's love lives. We've seen extraordinary demand for what Bumble offers as a brand and product in the friendship category, and we've been hard at work to launch a stand-alone product. We see this as a way to extend the lifetime value of the customer journey and retain customers over the long term.

Anuradha Subramanian, CFO

Yes. And Alex, to your question about what this means for us in terms of 2024, you're right, it’s a little early to be talking about what growth rates look like. What I will say, though, is we are very excited about our well-diversified portfolio. Within dating, we have Bumble, which is continuing to have momentum; we have Badoo, which is doing really well now; Fruitz is now also launching in many countries; BFF will be exciting for us next year, and now we have Official in the mix as well. We're excited about what this means for us in the coming years. Obviously, we'll provide more information in the coming quarters about what that means in terms of actual growth rates, etc.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ygal Arounian with Citigroup.

Ygal Arounian, Analyst

I want to maybe focus on the comments around expanding the subscription offering to a higher and a lower tier. Can you expand on that? I think on the lower tier, it might be similar to what you've talked about with Gen Z and the college audience. And then maybe a little bit more on the higher tier, what your expectations are there and what people are looking for from that category.

Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO

Yes, thank you so much for the question. We really look at monetization as a barbell. If you look at the current offering, we primarily have these two subscription offerings of Boost and Premium. When you look at the very wide variety of customers and user bases we have, we want to ensure that we are providing offerings that cater to their unique needs. Let's start with the lower price tier, which is about building an experience that's extremely native, particularly for Gen Z. It provides them with a way to engage at a lower price point. If you think about Gen Z, not everyone has disposable income. Moving to the higher tier, we are receiving consistent feedback from a wide range of customer segments looking for more serious dating. They’re very willing to pay a higher price because they feel that the relative value is exceptionally low. The current cost of our higher tier Bumble Premium is really the cost of a couple's drinks at any local bar. This higher tier will provide a more premium offering for an audience that values curated experiences. We see a lot of runway to expand there. All to say, this is currently in motion, and we hope to have updates by the end of the year.

Ygal Arounian, Analyst

And maybe just a follow-up. I'll go to the ecosystem idea on keeping people in the ecosystem. You talked about leverage and brand marketing. Can you discuss how you expect to build the marketing message around products outside of the core traditional dating use case and what that might look like?

Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO

Yes, of course. We believe there's strong benefit to the dating category even when we market Bumble for Friends. We hear time and again that people think they're not interested in dating but want to find friends, and they join Bumble for Friends with no intention to date. They then often change their mind shortly after and naturally choose Bumble dating as a tail to the friendship ecosystem. When we do a marketing campaign, we integrate it around products. For example, our Summer of Kindness campaign promotes the feature of Compliment, showcasing relevance to the product.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

Shweta Khajuria, Analyst

The first one is on Compliment and even the potential impact. Could you please frame the magnitude of the impact, if that's baked into the guidance? And then how should we think about that next year? In terms of the margin expansion, could you talk about that too?

Anuradha Subramanian, CFO

Great. Thanks for the question. In terms of Compliment and Best Bees, the way we think about what's included in our revenue guide is based on data from testing for all of these products. Compliments are pacing to what we had hoped at the beginning of the year. We haven't changed our assumptions around what that means for our full-year revenue guide. With Best Bees, we noticed it lead to good conversion rates and increased engagement, which influenced our decision to move it into our premium tier. That's contributed to payer growth this quarter as well. Regarding margins, you are right that our goal is to continue to expand margins both in the short term and in the medium term.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.

Cory Carpenter, Analyst

It looks like you've increased prices on certain Bumble app offerings in recent months. Could you talk about the rationale and the type of response you're seeing from users? Anu, could you explain the trends that led you to raise your Bumble app net guide by 40,000 at the midpoint?

Anuradha Subramanian, CFO

Yes, sure, Cory. Our pricing team operates with a sophisticated pricing architecture. Our goals are not just to increase prices but to optimize for the value we provide users. This has been an ongoing exercise. We've increased prices in some markets while lowering them in others for revenue optimization. When we think about pricing, extensive testing around price elasticity is essential across all geographic markets. We've also seen strong payer performance and higher payer penetration, which contributed to our confidence in raising our net add numbers.

Operator, Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Andrew Marok with Raymond James.

Andrew Marok, Analyst

On Badoo, we're seeing some encouraging signs there. What do you think we need to see in terms of the combination of overall market conditions and products to get back on a sustainable growth trajectory?

Tariq Shaukat, President

Andrew, it's Tariq. I'll start, and Whitney may chime in as well. With Badoo, you're right, there have been macro effects impacting it. We have learned that the resonating part of Badoo in this post-pandemic environment is the instant experience. Users wait less to connect, which is driving top-of-funnel results. We're able to monetize this, and we feel good about the product's evolution focusing on that immediacy element. We're also working on a brand refresh, which we believe will start emphasizing these points.

Andrew Marok, Analyst

Do you have a view on which of the lower price or the higher-priced tier could be bigger from a revenue perspective?

Anuradha Subramanian, CFO

It’s too early to quantify the impact of these offerings. We have a large user base, and a small portion pays for our product. This is about providing features for the spectrum of users on our product and creating value for them. There are many singles worldwide not online, and we see this as an opportunity.

Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO

Our brand is uniquely positioned for higher and lower tier offerings. Many users express a desire for a more premium, curated experience than what we currently offer.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bin Glass with Deutsche Bank.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Can you talk about how the international launches are faring? Are your competitors' marketing efforts having any discernible impact on Bumble's growth internationally? Can you give us just a little more sense of the product roadmap over the next 6 to 12 months?

Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO

Growth in our international markets for Bumble continues to be a strong source of strength. We see positive downloads and increases in MAU and payer growth. We successfully expanded our marketing efforts in newer markets like Italy and Portugal, continuing our European expansion. Our recent launches in Latin America are also gaining traction. Some competitive markets have intensified due to elevated marketing spends, but we are pleased with our performance and loyalty from women and Gen Z. Regarding the product roadmap, we categorize it into three buckets: optimizing what works well, innovation driven by AI, and building out our monetization platform.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Blackledge with TD Cowen.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Could you discuss back-to-school and if some of the product and marketing decisions from last year were shifted? And how might generative AI impact margins?

Tariq Shaukat, President

We are paying attention to seasonality patterns post-COVID. We expect the same as last year, where marketing and product launches targeting the college community won’t occur in the first few weeks of a new school year. As for generative AI, it has potential use cases to improve efficiencies and productivity within our operations, though it’s too early to determine its exact impact on margins.

Anuradha Subramanian, CFO

We're excited about what generative AI can mean from a consumer experience perspective, but also for internal operations. We're exploring many areas, such as marketing and creative sides, where generative AI can improve productivity, which is hoped to impact the bottom line positively.

Operator, Operator

Your final question will come from the line of Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

Nathaniel Feather, Analyst

Just two quick ones for me. For Bumble app, how should we think about the balance of payer ARPU growth as we exit the year? And for singles that haven't tried online dating, what do you think are the key unlocks you're working towards that could bring them into the funnel?

Whitney Herd, Founder and CEO

I think it's a handful of things. First, delivering something that aligns with their intentions is crucial. Many are deterred by the perception that online dating may be casual or may not yield true relationships. We're methodically collecting feedback from target demographics to identify their pain points. Trust, safety, and discretion are central to our mission. We focus on both online and real-life (IRL) experiences to create a seamless transition for new users.

Anuradha Subramanian, CFO

Regarding the payer and ARPU cadence, we provided guidance for Q3 net adds between 140,000 and 150,000, projecting a seasonal dip in Q4 as we've seen in prior quarters. On ARPU, we expect a slight negative trajectory, estimating a decline of about 1-2%. That's how we're currently thinking about it.

Operator, Operator

And this concludes today's conference call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.