Earnings Call Transcript - BP Q3 2024

Operator, Operator

Thank you, everyone, for joining BP's Third Quarter 2024 Results Call. As you'll be aware, we published the slides and script and video presentation alongside our stock exchange announcement earlier today. So before we start with Q&A, let me hand over to Murray for a few opening remarks.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Thanks, Greg, and thanks everyone for joining Kate and me on the call today. To briefly recap today's results, operations ran well this quarter. Year-to-date, upstream production was around 3% up, including liquids production up 5%. Plant reliability in the upstream was more than 95% and refining availability was more than 96% for the quarter. A really cool statistic in our EV charging business, we've had 80% year-on-year growth, and cumulatively this year we've now hit 1 terawatt-hour of electrons sold to our customers around the globe. We now have 23 kbd of biogas supply online, with eight plants commissioning in 4Q. Our performance has supported underlying profit of 2.3 billion in the quarter, and on distributions, we announced another $1.75 billion share buyback and a dividend per ordinary share of $0.08. At the same time, we've made massive progress since we've laid out our six priorities at the start of the year. We've stopped or paused 24 projects as we high-grade our portfolio. We're divesting assets that won't compete for capital. We've made a lot of progress on Kaskida since FID in the summer, and I expect Tiber to follow next year. We're accessing new resource opportunities, including in Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Abu Dhabi. We've completed the Bunge and Lightsource bp transactions, and we're in action to deliver over $0.5 billion of cost savings in 2025, on the way to our target of at least $2 billion by end 2026. If you had the chance to watch the video, you'll note that Kate said we're working options that are nearly twice this target. We are firmly focused on growing cash flow through the decade, with significant optionality in our oil and gas resource base, and in transition, we're staying disciplined, focusing on ensuring we deliver returns and value for shareholders. With that, let's move over to Q&A, and Craig can get us started.

Operator, Operator

Okay. Thanks, Murray. As a usual reminder, we're aiming to finish the call at around 2 PM UK time, so please everyone limit yourselves to two questions only so everybody gets a chance. I think we'll take the first question from Josh Stone at UBS. Josh?

Josh Stone, Analyst

Yes, thanks. Good afternoon. Thanks, Craig, and thanks for the video earlier. Two questions, please. Firstly, starting on the strategy, and I appreciate we're going to need until February. You've given us a few teasers already, but I wanted to ask you, Murray, as you're gathering your thoughts and preparing your slide deck, what do you think really needs to change in the current strategy? Is this a change in the identity of BP, or rather a tweak around the edges, a little bit of CapEx here, CapEx there, but overall direction the same? Any comments on that would be helpful. And then secondly, looking at the quarter, if you could just talk about the liquids trading performance. It was particularly weak this quarter and blew a hole in the downstream earnings. I know you don't like lifting the lid on all these businesses, but if you could just maybe talk a little bit about where that specific weakness is coming from, why it was weaker quarter-on-quarter, is this all market-related, or were there particular things that are BP-specific and therefore can be addressed rather easily? Thank you.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, great. Thanks, Josh. On the strategy, look, as we've said for the past, since February, since I came in, the direction of travel towards an IEC remains unchanged. We're a corporation that has an upstream business, a big customers business, and obviously a trading business. To durably compete in the long term, we need to follow the patterns of our customers. Not only do we need to provide hydrocarbons, but we need to lighten the carbon footprint of those through time, bringing in electricity, biogas, biofuels, etc. So the direction of travel for our business remains the same. What's different is we will be very, very returns-focused, making sure that the new businesses compete on a competitive level with the historic businesses for scarce capital. If you look back over the communications over the past few months, we've given you a strong indication of how we're high-grading the business. We've talked about the renewables will be capital light. We've talked about focusing hydrogen down to five to ten projects. We've talked about three biofuels plants instead of investing in the upstream and Bunge. We focused our EV and inconvenience down to four material countries with our scarce capital and continuing to focus on biogas. Today, you'll have seen in the video we provided that based on the success we've had with our existing 18 billion barrels, plus the FIDs making, plus the new access we're making, we now see the strong possibility to grow cash flow from the upstream through the decade. So what you should hear us focused on is cash flow generation and growth through the decade from a balance of the portfolio, a continued commitment to transition, but with quality and returns top of mind. Capital light models will be used where we're not sure that things can compete for capital. So that's the direction of travel. We'll obviously update our financial targets and our aims. We call it an update on our plans on purpose. We call it an update on our midterm plans on purpose. I hope that helps with the first one, Josh. On trading, overall trading for the year is on track for an average year, that's what I'd say. Sometimes profit occurs on the gas side. Sometimes profit occurs on the oil side. It can move around quite a bit based on the volatility we see inside the markets, but overall trading is on track for an average year this year. In the oil business, which you're particularly talking about, it was a weak quarter. It's the second weak quarter in a row. If you take a look at any of the external measures on VIX for what we've seen in the oil side, you'll see that VIX risk is way, way down to historically low levels right now. There's lots of movement in the prompt, but not much movement along the structure. It's very difficult to find opportunities to trade, and that's why you've seen some of the external publicly traded companies talk about their results in oil trading with pretty dramatic declines. There’s nothing systemic with oil trading or gas trading. We're having an average year for ourselves. The risk just happens to sit in gas, as opposed to oil right now. Let's see, that can very quickly change in 4Q, 1Q, or 2Q. Thanks for the questions, Josh.

Josh Stone, Analyst

Yes. Thanks for the comments.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, Josh. We'll take the next question from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies. Giacomo?

Giacomo Romeo, Analyst

Thank you. First question, if I may, is again related to some of the comments you have on the press release today about the update on February 2025. You talked about reviewing expectations related to the buyback. I just wanted to understand, in the past, you talked about having a 1 billion per quarter floor at a $60 oil price. I understand that this was before you updated your distribution guidance, increased your distribution guidance in February this year. Is this floor in any way still valid or is it still something that we should think of in terms of minimum level of buyback at lower macro prices? Second question is, I have is on divestments. You have increased your divestment guidance for the year. It sounds like you have quite a lot of divestments lined up for 2025 as well. Is it possible we're going to see a similar amount of divestments next year? And if I may add, on the M&A side, are we – are you done in terms of larger M&A deals? You're just focusing on execution going into 2025?

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes. Great, Giacomo. I'll answer the divestment question first and then I'll pass on to Kate to talk about buybacks in 2025. Look, I think on divestments, we set out a target back in 2020 to do $25 billion across the five years. We're on track for that. I think the math is we've done about 20 so far that have been announced. So we've got five quarters left to go to hit the 25. That should give you a pretty strong indication of the weighting between the years. If the price environment softens, divestments is a tool that we can use to bridge cash flow, as is CapEx. That's how we think about it from a divestment perspective. We continue to have lots of infrastructure positions that people are willing to pay very strong multiples for. We've got tail assets in the upstream, like in Egypt and Trinidad that other people would like to invest in as well. We continue to have a strong hopper of opportunities that we're working through, and we felt comfortable to bump the guidance in 4Q, given the transactions that we signed and our anticipation of when they complete. So we feel good on that side. As far as acquisitions go on the transition growth engines, we're good now. It's time to now bed these transactions in. We've done quite a few from EDF to GETEC to Bunge to Lightsource to Archaea to TravelCenters of America. It's now time to standardize them, drive the synergies into these businesses, and start to grow them in line with what we talked about to the market as we did the transactions. So that's where we'll be focused on for the next 12 to 18 months as we really drive that through. On the upstream side, we are continuing to look at acquisitions. Generally, they're organic. So farm-ins and that type of stuff. We'll continue to actively pursue those things. There's not as much competition internationally as in the past, and so there are tremendous opportunities to do these things, and we're looking forward to developing things like the Karabakh field in Azerbaijan that we recently agreed with SOCAR and, of course, the other opportunities. But that'll be lower key for now. They won't be big numbers; they'll be more inside the organic space. I hope that helps on the divestment and acquisition side. Over to Kate on buybacks.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yeah. Thanks, Murray, and hi, Giacomo. So, look, we today have announced the buyback for 3Q, 1.75 and reconfirmed the fourth quarter share buyback of 1.75. That's us following through on our commitments. When we finish executing, that will be 7 billion of the total for 2024. With regard to where we stand today, the balance sheet is strong. We are rated A+ by Fitch and A+ by Moody's, and we're firmly within all our ratings. As Murray's already said, the business is operating well. We've got operational growth through 2025. With regard to guidance for '25, back in February this year, when we guided on 14 billion, we said that was around market conditions as they were in February, and we also said that it's at least 80% of surplus. So if you wish, you can rule of thumb that. We have flexibility in our capital frame; if prices fall beyond that, we'll update you in February, as we always would alongside a medium-term plan update.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Thanks, Giacomo.

Operator, Operator

Super, thanks, Giacomo. We'll go next to Irene Himona, Bernstein.

Irene Himona, Analyst

Thank you very much. Good afternoon. Murray, you reiterate in the press release that in oil and gas, you see the potential to grow through the decade with a focus on value over volume. I understand that volume is the result of value-driven decisions. My question is, looking at your upstream project pipeline, would you say it is feasible that you may be able to grow volume alongside value? My second question to Kate, I guess, for the balance sheet, what would be the maximum level of net debt which you and the credit agencies see as compatible with maintaining that A-grade credit range, please? Thank you.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great. Thanks, Irene. I'll do the value versus volume one. I'll hand over to Kate on the net debt. So, look, we've got 18 billion barrels in the hopper that we've talked about last year in Denver with you. We've started to do some new access and the new FIDs that we've talked about. I am completely focused on cash flow and returns inside this, completely focused on that. We need to continue to turn our portfolio and focus our capital on the very best things we get. I'm hesitant to give you a volume number because we continue to high-grade the portfolio. Do we have the capacity to grow volume? Yes, we have the capacity to grow volume. But I don't really want to focus on that. For example, we've announced the divestment of Egypt and Trinidad. That's 75 KBD of production that upon completion will disappear. We continue to work through other programs as well, thinking about divesting interesting partnerships, etc. So, we do have the capacity, if that's what you're asking. But I'm much, much more focused on value and driving cash flow growth and returns out of the upstream. That's the focus, Irene. Kate, over to you.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes, thanks. And hello, Irene. So, I understand why you ask about a maximum level of net debt target. I'm going to keep going back to the way I think about financial resilience for our company. It's more than just about net debt. It's about the ratio of your earnings to your level of debt. I do think that's important. It's how we run the company with discipline. I think it also ensures we take the right investment decisions. If I look at Bunge, for example, which we've announced the completion of, that brings a level of debt with it. But it also brings earnings. It's actually accretive to my metrics, which is why it's such a great deal. I continue to monitor this closely, as you would expect me to do. At the moment, we have plenty of headroom. We continue to engage regularly with all of our rating agencies so that they have the opportunity for full and open conversations, both with regard to how we're thinking about our financial frame and our strategy. I'm not going to give you a maximum net debt number because it's too simplistic a way for me to think about resilience. I hope that helps, Irene.

Irene Himona, Analyst

Thank you so much.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Irene. Thank you. We're going to take the next question from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC. Biraj.

Biraj Borkhataria, Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I had two on the light source deal. One of the comments that caught my eye around that was it looks like either all or part of the operating assets were carved out as part of the deal into a new JV. It wasn't, I didn't see this in the original press release or the closing one. Could you just help me understand what's happening there? I assume part of the rationale for this deal is a call on interest rates. So if you're looking to flip those assets at some point, why didn't you buy them all? Because you are taking on that debt. There's not much in terms of earnings contribution. Secondly, just on the financial framework, you gave two net debt numbers around light source as part of the release, which suggests that the entity added something like £600 million of net debt in a year. That seems quite aggressive. Obviously, you're a guarantor of that debt for a small business. So could you just help me understand how the financing costs of that business changes now you're taking full control? So any numbers around that would be helpful as well. Thank you.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great. Thanks, Biraj. I'll start off with a little bit of marketing on light source BP and talk about the carve-out, and then I'll pass on to Kate for the financial frame for light source. Look, light source is one of the top solar developers and battery deployers globally. They brought on 10 gigawatts so far to markets. They have a mature pipeline of 40 gigawatts to 50 gigawatts. You'll see advertising at 60 gigawatts. But the mature pipeline is in the 40 to 50 range. They have 3 gigawatts of battery pipeline as well. They've set up their first battery farm in Australia and another one coming in the UK. They have the capacity with the 1300 member team across 19 countries to develop 3 gigawatts to 5 gigawatts for develop and flip. The returns on that looking back in history have been mid-teens. We would not expect that to change moving forward. It will be a developed and flip model with some retained equity. At some moment in time, we'll bring a partner in here. As I said last quarter, probably within the next 12 to 18 months. We have a lot of inbound attention coming in, Biraj, to the entity itself. It's probably one of the more prized assets that we find across pension funds and strategic asset managers. As we prepare ourselves for that, I think we'll do just fine on it. As far as light source BP itself goes and the carve-out, we decided with our existing co-owners to carve out the 2.5 gigawatts in the U.S. That was a purposeful decision. As we went through this process with interest rates so high, it was hard to agree on a bid-ask difference. They were saying you need to pay us for a real decline. We were saying, no, that doesn't make any sense. So we just went ahead and decided that we'd carve it out. As interest rates come down in the U.S., as you say, they're very sensitive to interest rates. As those interest rates come down in the U.S., then we can flip it down the road. That 50% of that money will come back to us through light source BP, and 50% will go to the other co-owners. So that was the decision making. That was the reason we went into the entity. We see it as a tremendous vehicle for us to provide us with green electrons into Carol's business, our Head of Trading’s business, as well as our own portfolio, and our marketing businesses. So we see it as a tremendous asset that we can repackage and help us a lot in the future. The carve-out just made sense in the commercial negotiation.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes, and hello, Biraj. Nice to talk to you. So in terms of the debt, yeah, there was an increase over the last few quarters as light source really funded the development of some new projects which will monetize through the next couple of years as light source recycles its capital and sells down at FID. In terms of the financing for light source post-control, what we did in the third quarter was build up a level of cash inside BP to ensure that we were in a position to refinance their external debt. It's a much more cost-effective way of financing going forward. Once we have light source completely within our control, it will largely be self-financing going forward through its develop and flip model. I expect we will use project finance at the asset co-level, and there'll be a base level of working capital that goes in at the start. Beyond that, it's largely self-financing. One other point to make while I'm talking about Lightsource and debt with regard to the acquired debt of circa 3 at the date of completion. The way we think about this is that it is largely transitory. There's plenty of inbound interest in this space, and I believe we're going to have a lot of choice around timing and selection of partner in due course as we choose to bring in a strategic partner for value. At that point in time, a significant proportion of that three billion will be removed as a consequence of that transaction. That’s how to think about it.

Operator, Operator

Great. Thank you, Biraj. Right. We'll go to Doug Leggate at Wolfe. Doug, good morning. Early morning.

Doug Leggate, Analyst

Well, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Murray, Kate, I wonder if I could beat up on a topic that you've heard a couple of times on this call already, which is the balance sheet. But I want to ask the question slightly differently. You're going to take in $3.7 billion of consolidated debt. Although the credit industries don't care about it, the equity market does. You have an additional $13 plus billion of hybrid bonds. I want to understand why, when you think about the capital allocation going forward and your strategic review, where does capital structure fit in the priority for use of free cash? Because buybacks clearly haven't helped. My follow-up is a quick one on hybrid bond costs. As interest rates come down for the cash that you have in the balance sheet, $34 billion, what is the actual cost of your hybrid bonds? Why would you maintain those as part of your capital structure, given the elevated cost of that equivalent interest charge?

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great, thanks, Doug. Looks like you're going to make Kate work for her money. I'll pass these questions on to Kate to give you some thoughts.

Kate Thomson, CFO

I appreciate the feedback. It probably doesn't come as a surprise, given the previous conversations we've had. I have heard your point. Murray and I have spoken to an awful lot of our shareholders over the last few months. I think we've talked to the vast majority of our long-only. The perspective that we get back from our shareholders is that they're supportive of the way we're balancing the financial frame at the moment. So, I hear your push on the balance sheet. But I think that the balance we have struck at the moment feels right. With regard to the hybrid, I do view it as a permanent part of our capital structure. I'm aware of the limits that S&P put on potential refinancing versus rollovers year-on-year and cumulative. We will step towards each maturity thoughtfully and with regard to the hybrid market and how refinancing looks. I'm not intending to breach the 10% per annum or the cumulative 25% retiring of hybrid debt because of the change that, that will create in terms of the way they're accounted for both on the balance sheet and from the rating agency's perspective. Finally, on cost, around $5 billion of our hybrid debt is currently fixed, and most of that is fixed at a very competitive rate. In terms of current financing, the numbers stack up for me. We will step toward each maturity as you would expect us to with thought and care with regard to how we might finance any maturities, whether we refinance them externally or whether we choose to use cash to refinance those. I understand your points. They are listened to, and we are stepping through each of them carefully and thoughtfully as you would expect us to.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Kate. Thanks, Doug. We'll take the next question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia?

Lydia Rainforth, Analyst

Thanks and good afternoon. I have two questions. First, regarding the products business, Murray mentioned that while there may not be significant profit, there was some profit in oil trading. However, I noticed that the loss was still close to $0.5 billion, and I'm unclear about why it is so high. Does this reflect what refining will achieve in the current environment? If you could clarify that for me, I would appreciate it. My second question is about annualizing the cash flow and CapEx from just one quarter. While I see potential for more from the assets by 2025, is the business generating the cash flow you believe it should at this time? This might also relate to costs. Thank you.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes. Thanks, Lydia. Let me try to answer these, and then Kate can clean up anything that I miss. Overall cash flow for the business, we're quite happy with it for the vast majority of the business. The upstream is performing very well. The cash conversion inside the upstream is strong. We're obviously highly levered to oil price, so there's nothing inside the upstream that I'm particularly concerned about. Regarding the product side, as you say it was a tough quarter in Europe for refining. It was a tough quarter, and refining was in a loss, especially in Europe. Very, very difficult market as product got flooded in from multiple geographies into Europe. That's what's unusual on the margin side. Relative to the RRM, margins are very, very depressed inside the continent, especially in Germany. The refineries were all operating well, but we had two pretty sizable TARs during that time period as well. So it's not really an enduring level of cash flow to think about given the TARs that were ongoing. We started a TAR in Indiana as an example in the quarter. I don't view Q3 as enduring; as we look forward to 2024 on the product side, you would expect refining to turn back to a profit as we expect it to be a lower TAR season. You would expect it back to a profit as we hopefully don't have any outages like we had in the first quarter. We're continuing to work on our business improvement plans to drive cost out of the business safely. We are reconfiguring Gelsenkirchen that we've announced previously to the market, which will improve cost over time. We're starting to make some headway on digital now with Palantir and Infosys that will help the refining system over time. They've done their ontology, and Palantir and Infosys can get into action quite quickly. You'll see the products business improve as we move through to next year, but it was a particularly hard time on refining margins in continental Europe and especially in Germany in the quarter. Regarding enduring cash flow, as you look from 2024 to 2025, I think I'd go back to my opening points. We're performing relatively well in the year. As we look forward, we have strong growth coming. We have five new major projects in the upstream to come online. We have more LNG contracts coming online. We have the refineries getting back to more normal conditions and a lighter TAR season. The start of the cost program starting to come through, and you heard the confidence from Kate on that. We will flex capital and we will flex proceeds as we need to ensure that we've got enduring cash flow for shareholders, Lydia. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Okay. Thank you, Lydia. We'll take the next question from Peter Low, Redburn, Peter?

Peter Low, Analyst

Yes, thanks. The first was just a clarification on the CapEx guidance for this year. You left it at around $16 billion, but I think you've done about 12.5 year to date and then you have a couple of acquisitions completing in the fourth quarter, which I think have a combined consideration of about $1.3 billion. Given the organic run rate, it feels like you're perhaps going to be above the 16 billion. Is there anything I'm missing in that analysis? My second question is at 2Q, you suggested that a mark-to-market and current commodity forward curves would have around a $4 billion negative impact on your 2025 EBITDA guidance. Given how commodity prices have developed since then, would that now be a bigger number or could you give any update on that? Thanks.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, Peter. I'm not going to confuse the market by putting another set of numbers out on your second question. You've got our 46 to 49 and the price conditions prevailing in 2023. You've got what we said last quarter, and you've got our rules of thumb. So I'll just allow you guys to use our rules of thumb, which work pretty well to determine the cash flows next year. Regarding Kate on CapEx for 2024, please.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes. Hi, Peter. As you'd expect, we test it quite hard at the end of the third quarter to check we're comfortable with our full-year guidance. We are going to be around about 16. There is a level of deferred consideration associated with some of the transactions that are completing—that might be the missing piece in your jigsaw. But yes, we will be around about 16 billion for the full year.

Operator, Operator

Okay. Thanks, Peter. We will take the next question back to the U.S. from Roger Read at Wells Fargo. Roger?

Roger Read, Analyst

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Recognizing the 2025 outlook is coming, but just as a way to think about some of the questions here, I think a lot of people focused on the balance sheet, your comments about value over volume, and ultimately it's about cash flow generation. If we look at BP's ongoing CapEx level versus either a look back on cash from operations or earnings power, and we compare that to some of the peers, BP looks a little more capital intensive. My question to you, Murray, is there a cost issue that you think is inherent in BP? Is it that, as you've laid out, 12 to 18 months focusing on some of these energy transition and renewables areas, integrating them, and getting them to work right, generating more cash? How do you look at that particular item within the company and relative to peers?

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, great, Roger. I always find it hard to compare to the American peers. They've done $50 and $60 billion acquisitions using stock. If you normalize that, we're way below them on capital investment. I find it very difficult to compare that metric across companies, given sometimes people use stock to do things. Instead then, I just look at ourselves and think about our portfolio and how we drive growth. What I'd say is, in the transition space, starting to put more leverage off balance sheet makes sense to drive these things forward, which starts to address some of your question. That's something we're thinking about as we particularly think about the renewables and the hydrogen CCS space. It might make sense to use other people's money to drive that, to allow us to then get the offtake, etc. That's a constant consideration in our mind. The nature of the portfolio we have in the upstream business—we have a lot of great deepwater positions, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. They might be a little bit higher development costs than some of the competitors, but boy, do they throw off margin. If you attenuate for that, you get back to a similar position on the upstream businesses. I understand the question. We are a bit heavier than some, maybe the Europeans who haven't done the big stock transactions. It's a little bit of portfolio mix, and it's a little bit of thinking about how we structure in the renewable space as well. We'll be updating you on that in February. Thanks for the question.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Roger. We'll go next to Lucas Herrmann, Exane. Lucas?

Lucas Herrmann, Analyst

Yes, thanks very much, Craig. Just a couple of my, I just wondered if you could talk about the transition growth engines more broadly in terms of momentum, how things are progressing. The build-out in Archaea seems relatively modest or certainly lower than the expectations you initially set, Murray. I hear the comment about a gigawatt or a terawatt rather of sales in EV charging, but again that seems relatively modest; it doesn't suggest the utilization rates are moving dramatically. Obviously, we're conscious of the lower rate of building in EV more broadly. So just some comments there. And then secondly, if I could just remind the company offered its employees very kindly a large, or I think it was £25,000 worth of equity for the 60,000 or so employees back in 2000, 2001, which was going to vest, or much of it was going to vest in 2025. Where are we in terms of that process? Obviously, it hasn't vested as yet. But if you think about the equity that's associated with that, where would it stand? Those were the two. Thanks.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great, Lucas. I'll let Kate talk about the ESOP. On transition growth engines and the progress we're making, I'll talk to the two that you asked about. EV, despite many news articles you hear about EV adoption slowing, they're still growing 20% across the core markets that we operate in. It might not be 30% that people were seeing in previous years, but we see across all those basins a 20% year-on-year increase in EV adoption. In the four car markets that we're operating in, the one terawatt—remember, we've gone from 12 countries down to 4 with real concentration for our CapEx through high grading. That's a lot of energy sales, 80% growth year-on-year. Our charging time as a function of power. The amount there in residence is way higher than we thought. We're at 10% now. We didn't think we'd be at that level until 26 or 27 on a weighted basis. So we're seeing lots of cars, and we're seeing lots of adoption, and we're seeing very high charge levels. It's because of the great product that the team has put together and the great partnerships that they've established. The latest one to look at was Prime in the United States, which is a fantastic thing to do to bring Prime customers to the fast charging. I'm sure that will continue to improve. I feel pretty good about EV and that we're on track for our targets that we set out for 2025. On Archaea, we talked about 15 plants this year. Seven are up and online and operating. Eight are flowing natural gas through them and working out pipelines back with the midstream providers that they flow into. They're up, and they're operating. We just need to adapt the separation to ensure the separation is working effectively to get the molecules to flow. We'll probably hit the 15. The stunning bit about this is the largest number of plants that anybody else in the sector has brought online is two or three, so we're a standout inside the sector at this 15 that I think creates the case for a lot more business moving forward. I feel quite good about Archaea as well. On the biofuel side, margins remain suppressed in Europe. I don't think that's a surprise to anyone. They're good in Brazil, and they're okay-ish in the U.S., but suppressed in Europe would be the other thing I'd call out right now. Pretty decent progress, Lucas.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes, okay. On ESOPs, Lucas. You're right, there was a mixture of options and shares granted a number of years ago, and they vest in the middle of March next year. The cost of it will vary depending on share price, really, plus employee behaviour. History would tell us that about 15% of employees would exercise options as they vest in the first couple of weeks or so. It will depend, I imagine, on the environment and that behaviour pattern in terms of what the impact is on us. We're still a couple of quarters away from seeing it actualised, so I just suggest we will provide greater clarity in due course. We'll offset dilution associated with that over time, as we've said a number of times before. The counting is quite unusual regarding these options and shares, so if you're super interested, we can take you through that offline at some point in early 2025.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Thanks, Lucas.

Operator, Operator

Yes, thanks, Lucas. We'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America. Chris?

Chris Kuplent, Analyst

Yes, thanks very much, Craig. Two quick questions for you, please. We're hearing Total Energy talk about having a task force to look at a way to be listed in the U.S. and be included in the indices. I want to ask again whether you have such a task force in-house. It seems like your asset footprint seems a more natural candidate for such a task force to at least look into. The second question goes back to a question that's been asked a number of times. And Kate, apologies, but you've based your $7 billion buyback in February on, I get it, macro conditions at the time, but also on an 80% payout ratio. We now have nine months into the year. My number suggests that surplus cash flow that it's based on is below $2 billion nine months in. Can you confirm that number, roughly at least, given that you're not disclosing it? Why continue with $1.75 billion in the fourth quarter when it doesn't look very likely, even with a slight pickup in disposal proceeds, that you're going to get closer to $9 billion, which I guess is, on an annual basis, what you would require for that 80% payout to be held? Thank you.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great. Thanks, Chris. I'll let Kate mull the math on that one. I'm not sure we're following the math that we might be doing to do that one offline, but we'll let her answer you. On U.S., no, we're not focused on the U.S. The stigma is not on our agenda. Thanks for the question, Chris. Kate, over to you on the surplus calculation.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes, I don't really want to start guiding forward on what our surplus is at the end of 2024. We've said 80% of surplus over time. We've also said that, in our view, the balance sheet is strong enough to tolerate quarter-on-quarter movements, which is why we deliberately moved away from a quarter calculation at a time on surplus numbers in that quarter. It created a lot of volatility. We will continue with the buyback. At our view, the 3.5 that we said we were committed to announcing back in July is exactly that. It's a commitment, and we're confident the balance sheet can tolerate those payments. Consequently, we did not want to change anything about that commitment. We're following through on it, and that's how we think about it.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Kate. Thanks, Chris. We'll take the next question back in the U.S. from Ryan Todd at Piper. Ryan?

Ryan Todd, Analyst

Thanks. Maybe the first one on natural gas, I guess specifically U.S. natural gas prices. After some earlier excitement in the earlier part of this year, natural gas prices in the U.S. remain pretty weak, both at the headline Henry Hub, but particularly in most basis differentials. Specific to, I guess, how do you think about U.S. gas prices and specific to a couple of your operations here in the U.S.? What does it mean for, how do you think about where the Haynesville fits from an activity level point of view in there? Is there anything you can do in places like the Permian to specifically improve what feels like perpetually weak dynamics there on a pricing point of view? The second question is on the expiration front. Can you talk about, are you still spending the right amount of money on the expiration program right now? Is there anything that excites you on the horizon as you look at future opportunities?

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, great, Ryan. I'll take both of those. On expiration, we're drilling about 30 wells a year right now. I don't know, should it be 32 or 33 or 26 or 27? I don't know. Should it be vastly different than that? Probably not. Lease bonuses are very small these days, as opposed to past history. Drilling efficiency is much better than it has been. So I think we're in the realm of stuff that's fine from an activity level perspective. What's interesting coming up on exploration? With an explorer as a father, I can't decide if I go optimistic or pessimistic. What I'm definitely saying, on the optimistic side for exploration, we've got some interesting stuff going down in the Rhino block in Namibia that'll start up soon. I think Claudio has talked about that with Ian and me, our partner in Azule who's drilling with us. That looks interesting. Let's see. We've got a couple more wells going down in Brazil that are in a hot basin. Let's see. It's in the right postcode. We had a good discovery on Cabo Frio a while ago that we'll be appraising. That'll be interesting. Let's see how the next one goes, which is the next big well in Brazil as well. The Paleogene is really interesting, too, guys. We'll appraise the west bump, and there are some really, really big bright spots we've got on new seismic that we've done. Cutting-edge seismic below salt that we’ve done looks really big. Farther out, I think Namibia, Brazil, and GoM look pretty interesting, but I'm happy with the overall level of activity, Ryan. On U.S. natural gas, yes, I think if I start at a high level, I'm pretty optimistic about natural gas prices through the decade. The nation is producing about 100 Bcf/d right now, with obviously 15 Bcf/d of capacity needing to come online to fill the liquefaction plants. The hyperscalers are driving crazy demand for natural gas right now. We could see something like another 10 Bcf/d of demand by the end of the decade. Hard to predict right now, but crazy, crazy demand for base load, so we see high demand for natural gas as we move through the decade, making us optimistic about our 22 Tcf of natural gas just sitting there, waiting for a price response. For now, we have low levels of activity in Haynesville and the Eagle Ford on the dry gas side as we wait for a pop in price. If that price increase happens, we'll structure something and start to drill into those basins. For now, that hasn't occurred. We think the price response will come as the LNG becomes more real. On basis differentials, Haynesville and Eagle Ford, we're okay. We're direct to market there, ensuring we have lots of capacity in that space. Obviously, the Permian will remain a challenge for everybody. We have the new pipeline coming online, Matterhorn, which will bring 2.5 Bcf/d of capacity. We think that helps for a while, but it probably fills up after a while. I think we feel okay about the Eagle Ford and Haynesville and the 22 Ts; the Permian will remain a challenge, which I believe was your point, Ryan. Hope that helps.

Operator, Operator

Okay, thanks, Ryan. We'll turn next to Alastair Syme at Citi. Alastair?

Alastair Syme, Analyst

Thanks, Craig. Two quick ones. On cash taxes for Kate, we're running quite a bit ahead of P&L tax this year. I can maybe just explain what's going on and how you would seek to guide us going forward. And then, Murray, one of the arguments for the IEC model was you could have these strong corporate-level relationships and transactions. You just mentioned the hyperscalers there. It seems like you are seeing pretty high prices that people are willing to pay for nuclear capacity. Are you seeing the same disconnect in the sort of deals you're able to put together with customers?

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, I'll let Kate hit the cash tax first, and then I'll come to the hyperscaler question.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes, hi, Alastair. So yes, I think the main reason you're seeing cash taxes run slightly ahead of where you might have expected is that the ETR is on prices which are lower this year than they were last year. That's probably flowing through. You'll always get a level of movement in geographical mix, and things move around with regard to deferred tax asset recognition quarter-on-quarter as well. That's basically it in terms of moving parts. There's nothing else to call out there.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Last year, the prices were high, and this year, you pay the high.

Kate Thomson, CFO

3Q is always higher. Typically, the third quarter is higher, and we flagged that.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great. Two people with tax history in their life answering tax questions. Kate and I. Dangerous, isn't it? Back to the hyperscaler conversation. Look, we're in conversations with all of them. They are looking for energy. They would like it to be as decarbonized as possible. We're working with that. The lead place in the world right now is the United States, where they're moving fast. Other places aren't moving as fast. I think that's a yet observation. We'll start to see hyperscalers really moving in the UK, Europe, and other parts of the world a little later than the U.S. If you want to remain competitive in AI, you'll have to do that. Everyone wants to maintain competition in the AI space. If you're an integrated energy company, this is the right time for you. If you've got the ability to bundle natural gas with solar, with wind, if you're able to create hedging shapes for them, etc. You're an ideal place. There will be companies that will go to that can't provide the lower carbon stuff because they can't. There will be many companies that can't do global reach. So that's why I'm excited about the future for the business and why I'm committed to continuing to transition it. Our customers, and clearly hyperscalers are going to be one of the bigger customers moving forward for energy, need baseload reliable energy that will decarbonize over time. That's the situation, and I believe there are only two or three companies in the world that can deliver that at scale across multiple countries. We've done some deals that are quiet, and over time, we may publicize some of these. But it's a very, very interesting space, Alastair. Thanks for asking about it.

Operator, Operator

Okay, thanks, Alastair. Next question from Kim Fustier, HSBC. Kim?

Kim Fustier, Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Firstly, I wanted to ask about CapEx. I know you'll guide on 2025 CapEx in February. But I think you mentioned earlier that CapEx is a tool that you can select. I was wondering, in a $70 oil price environment, could you say whether anything changes in your capital program relative to, let's say, an $80 Brent price environment? If so, where would that flexibility come? Would you lean more on short cycle and reduce that bid? Are there any projects that wouldn't make the cut? Secondly, on divestments, it seems to me the majority of the assets sold or up for sale are in midstream and renewables. The tap pipeline, formerly downstream, light source BP, wind assets. Is it fair to say that there's more focus on midstream and renewables asset sales rather than on upstream? If so, where does that leave your target of 200,000 barrels a day of upstream divestments?

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes. Great, Kim, thanks very much for the questions. I don't think you'd flex anything between 70 and 80 on the upstream. We don't run our hurdle rates at $80; that's just upside for us. If you think about '25, then and capital flexibility, if you need capital flexibility, you've obviously got the option to do things lighter capital by bringing in partners. That's an option that you always have. We'll continue to push the pipelines for decapitalization. That was quite hard in '21, '22, '23; companies just weren't willing to do that. They're back at it now. Infra funds are back at it, looking for those types of assets. That gives us an opportunity to decapitalize many pipelines we have inside the business. Some companies are quite aggressive; they're saying, can we decapitalize your compressors? Can we decapitalize your wells? That's not something we'll do. But it shows you a sign of the scale of capital that's available to decapitalize a portfolio. It gives you confidence that if you need to flex, you want to, if you see the right multiples, you can start to flex that asset base as well. We have had divestments that we've announced, so we have Egypt and Trinidad. Those take 75 kbd out of that 200. We continue to work on a couple more options that I'd like to high-grade in time as well. They're either entities that don't earn much money for the production or they're not an efficient use of capital for us. We'll continue to think about doing that; the 200 is kind of okay for now. Seventy-five done and maybe even a little bit more if I think about some other ones we've done in the past. I feel on track for that. So, lots of flexibility in CapEx, depending on what happens with the environment. Flexibility in the upstream is very high; we're at a period where we're finishing off major projects. We're only starting up new ones. The vast majority of capital is going into drilling, and we have all kinds of flexibilities in those contracts if we needed to use them. Hope that helps with that range of questions.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Kim. We'll next go to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martijn?

Martijn Rats, Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Hello. I also have two, if I may. First of all, I wanted to ask if you could elaborate a bit about the project you mentioned in Kirkuk, as Iraqi projects have a long history of being famously low margin. But at the same time, that is from some time ago. I was wondering where you see the level of profitability in the project that you recently mentioned. Where could it sort of get to? Is that a different level of margin? The other one I wanted to ask goes back to the balance sheet financial framework, and looking forward to what might be the buyback in 2025 remains a key issue for all of us, of course. If we add back the debt that you will be consolidating from Bunge and Lightsource, and then look at the level of gearing that that implies, that takes the gearing back to the level of early 2021. In early 2021, the guidance for the buybacks was 60% of surplus cash flow, which I interpreted as being in recognition that the other 40% was needed for balance sheet de-gearing. I was wondering if 80% of surplus cash flow is indeed the indication we should assume for the buybacks in next year, or given the balance sheet is where it is, once the additional debt is consolidated, whether we need to start thinking about a payout out of surplus cash flow that is reminiscent of a few years ago.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great, Martijn. I'll let Kate answer that one on the thin frame, which, of course, remains consistent since 2020 and will remain so. In the meantime, I'll talk about Kirkuk. A very exciting opportunity for us. Five domes, five domes full of oil, 20 billion barrels yet to produce. That's not in place; that's yet to produce. 20 billion plus saturated rock nearby provides a tremendous opportunity for oil and natural gas. The Iraqi terms have changed magnificently since 17 or 18 years ago that you might be remembering, Martijn. You can go on WoodMac and see the latest rounds, called round eight, and see what those terms look like, they are competitive with most of the other countries in which we operate now in PSA structure. We're happy to move forward with that. We see this as a tremendous opportunity to grow short-cycle oil in the Middle East in some of the lowest cost supply in the world. Over to you, Kate, on balance sheet.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Thanks, Murray. Hi, Martijn. Yeah, if I go back to February of this year when we updated our guidance to 80% of surplus, and to be clear, our guidance is unchanged currently. We went there because of the degree of progress we made in reducing our debt on the balance sheet through 22 and 23. If you bear with me for a minute, I'm going to step you through why I'm comfortable with the balance sheet today. We're at the end of the third quarter. We've got about net debt of, let's say, 24.05. We said around $1 of divestment proceeds were delayed by four days, so I take that off. If you look at our cumulative working capital build on our balance sheet since 2019, it's around 13, nine of that is from Deepwater Horizon and two of that is decommissioning. That leaves about $2 billion of build left to reverse over time. So when I take that into consideration, and think about my net debt at the end of 2Q, it's probably permanently around the $21.5 level. Yes, we will be consolidating debt from light source BP. But as I've said, the majority of that is transitory as we bring in that strategic partner at the right time and for the right value, that will be removed. So, I wanted to step you through how I'm thinking about the balance sheet and why I feel comfortable saying that it's strong and we're comfortable with where it sits right now. I hope that's helpful.

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Martijn. Getting close to time here. We've got three remaining questioners. So the first one, Matt Lofting at JPMorgan.

Matt Lofting, Analyst

Yeah, thanks for squeezing in the questions. Two quick ones, please. First, if we just come back to the other comments around cash flow generation, obviously, CFFO can be phased and lumpy quarter-by-quarter. I wonder if you take a step back and look at nine months delivery compared to BP's internal expectations at the beginning of this year, how you see underlying cash generation year-to-date, and how you would grade it versus the start of the year. The second, Murray, I think you talked earlier about trading year-to-date being on track to be average. Assuming that corresponds broadly to the 4% return contribution you've talked about in the past, can you share a sense of how that compares to the contribution that business was making in ‘22, ‘23, and how confident you are you can sustain this year's level of 25 plus under four strip conditions? Thanks.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, thank you, Matt. On trading, yes, we've had an average of 4% over time since 2020. Sorry, I was having an elder moment there. This year, we're on track for the 4%. I feel very comfortable with that. We were up around 6% in the heights. So we're 2% below that, but 4% as we're delivering now. You may wonder, is 4% durable, especially if the world shifts to lower volatility? My answer to that is absolutely. And the reason I say absolutely is, we're building a series of businesses around our historic trading business, which give us much more optionality and flow. Trading businesses make money from equity optionality, merchant optionality, and flow. So building out power businesses through EDF and GETEC acquisition, building a biogas from Archaea, building out a biofuels position in Bunge that allow us to arbitrage bioethanol to the west coast of the U.S. and Europe. These steps we're taking to build out these peripheral businesses where customers want lower carbon energy allow us to durably make this 4%. If Carol’s listening, I’d probably say grow over time as well, even without volatility. The way to think about it is that extreme volatility saw 200 basis points in the past couple of years, but we feel very confident in the 4% durability of trading moving forward, given that we're building these businesses. Regarding the grading for my leadership team performance this year, I'd say the upstream is performing as we'd hoped. Production is about on plan, costs are coming in on plan, projects are coming in on plan, so I feel very good about that. Refinery is operating very well, except for the first quarter where we had a problem in Whiting. That’s not entirely their fault. It relates to external circumstances. But the Whiting outage in Q1 is the one point for the year that scores us down of the rest of the year. Otherwise, we’re doing just fine. I feel on track for the 3% to 4% underlying growth we talked about and look forward to beating that as we move into '25. Hope that helps, Matt.

Operator, Operator

Okay, thanks, Matt. We'll take the next question from Paul Cheng at Scotia. Paul.

Paul Cheng, Analyst

Thank you. Two quick questions. First, Murray, can you give an update about GTA Phase 1, the LNG project? Are we still on schedule for the end of the year or early first quarter start-up on the first gap? And second, I think it is okay on the $2 billion cost reduction by the end of 2026. Can you give us an idea of how that's going to be divided between the organic cost reduction and the cost reduction related to asset sales? Thank you.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Great, Paul. Fantastic. On GTA, we continue to make good progress. All the equipment is in the field now. During the quarter, we brought in an LNG vessel to unload LNG into the actual LNG facility itself, and that has allowed us to pre-commission the LNG. That's gone very well. Congratulations to the team for delivering on that. It's not a straightforward operation. The next milestone—we continue through punch lists, etc. The next big milestone is we'll be introducing natural gas from the wellheads into the floating FPSO offshore and then into the pipelines that go to the LNG plant. I'm happy with progress. I don't want to put any pressure on the teams. What they need to focus on is safely starting this up. That's what will be remembered over time as a safe start-up. I feel like we're making good progress, Paul. We'll update you next time we talk to you. Kate, over to the cost savings and how much is organic versus inorganic.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes, thanks, Murray. When we first set out the cost efficiency back in February, we talked about four areas, four levers where we would be driving cost efficiency through. One of those was our portfolio, so as a rule of thumb, that's probably not a bad guide. Sort of 25%. We'll provide a better idea of delivery as we get to the fourth quarter. My expectation in February will be to explain business by business how we're doing and what we're delivering. The other thing I’d like to say today is we have line of sight now to in excess of $500 million in 2025. If you remember what I've said on previous calls, I primarily want them underpinned. Then I want to do what we can to accelerate and exceed it. The third point is how to sustain this. I hope that gives you the lens through which we're driving this whole area of work. The teams are making tremendous progress. As you can see, we're working on a lot of options. The track record at every other company that tries to do this would say you need a hopper of options that are significantly in excess of your delivery. Right now, we feel very comfortable about our $2 billion in 2026.

Operator, Operator

Okay, thanks very much, Paul. I'm afraid due to time, we're going to take our final question, and that's from Bertrand Hodee at Kepler. For anybody remaining on the call with questions, we will follow up with you. Thank you. Bertrand?

Bertrand Hodee, Analyst

Yes, thanks, Craig. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on your Paleogene opportunities. If you sanction Kaskida this year, you will sanction, or you want to sanction Tiber next year. I've seen a third project popping up called Guadalupe. I remember it was a discovery announced a few years back. How should we think about Guadalupe? Is it a potential new hub or is it a tieback opportunity to Kaskida or Tiber? The second question is on the corporate division. It was a bit of an awkward number in Q3 with a positive contribution from it. Can you explain the rationale behind it?

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, great. Bertrand, I'll let Kate describe that one. On Paleogene, thank you for your memory; that's fantastic. You remember Guadalupe. You might recall Gila as well if you were really stretching back in time. We have the Guadalupe discovery. It's there; we haven't made a decision yet on it, to be honest. Is it a tieback to Tiber or standalone? We have a couple wells going down across 25 and 26 that will help us decide what we do. First, we have the appraisal well on the west bump on Kaskida. So when we say we're sanctioning Kaskida, we mean the east bump of Kaskida with six wells. The west bump will drill an appraisal well. That will determine what we do with that one. In our minds right now, it's a tieback, but it depends on how that goes. Certainly, it will be a tieback; I don't think it will be standalone, but let's see how the appraisal well goes. We have the big exploration prospect that I talk about, west of that. That will be drilled, and that will determine what we do with the region. If that comes in with a size similar to Tiber and Kaskida, you'll have to think about a standalone there. If it's dry, which is possible, we'll have to make this decision on Guadalupe as well. The roundabout answer is we're clear on Kaskida and we're underway getting to construction now. It looks like we'll sanction Tiber; I feel very confident about that. Guadalupe is an option, appraisal is an option, and the next exploration well is an option. We have shot seismic as well and we're seeing other bright spots, so there's a lot of resource there. We're on the verge of making two infrastructure decisions with two vessels. I hope there's a third one there, but it's a bit too early to say. We need to do more appraisal and some exploration drilling. I hope that helps. Share your thoughts, Bertrand, and over to you, Kate.

Kate Thomson, CFO

Yes, thanks. First, let me clear up on other business and corporate. It's an area of the results that can move around quite a lot quarter-on-quarter. In terms of 3Q, you may remember earlier in the call, I mentioned building cash through the third quarter in preparation to repay financing for Lightsource BP so that we could finance it internally. It's a lot more efficient this way. As a consequence, we had greater levels of interest income in Q3. The other big component was favorable FX movement on a weaker dollar. That's all that’s going on, but it does move around a bit. I know it's tricky.

Murray Auchincloss, CFO

Yes, great. Thanks, Kate. I think, Craig, with that, we'll call it to an end and I'll just make a few closing statements. Thank you for all your questions and for listening. Another quarter of resilient operations, and I hope you'll agree significant progress in driving focus and efficiencies into the business. The actions we are taking create real change at BP and we're staying focused on what we control, growing the underlying performance of the business. We have great assets, a great team, and great opportunities to grow returns and value. I firmly believe we are one of a few companies that can deliver unique integrated energy solutions for countries, companies, and customers alike. I have deep conviction that the actions we're taking will grow the value of BP. We're very much looking forward to providing an update on our medium-term plans when we broadcast from New York in February. Thanks, everyone, for your questions and for joining the call. Bye-bye.