Earnings Call Transcript
Carnival Corp Ltd. (CCL)
Earnings Call Transcript - CCL Q1 2024
Beth Roberts, SVP, Investor Relations
Good morning. This is Beth Roberts, SVP, Investor Relations, Carnival Corporation & plc. Welcome to our First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm joined today by our CEO, Josh Weinstein; our Chief Financial Officer, David Bernstein; and our Chair, Micky Arison. Before we begin, please note that some of our remarks on this call will be forward-looking. Therefore, I will refer you to the forward-looking statement in today's press release. All references to ticket prices, net per diem, net yields and adjusted cruise costs without fuel will be in constant currency unless otherwise stated. References to per diems and yields will be on a net basis. Our comments may also reference cruise costs without fuel, EBITDA, net income, net loss, earnings per share, free cash flow, and ROIC, all of which will be on an adjusted basis unless otherwise stated. All these references are non-GAAP financial measures defined in our earnings press release. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable US GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are also contained in our earnings press release and on our investor presentation. Please visit our corporate website where our earnings press release and investor presentation can be found. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Josh.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Thank you, Beth. Before I begin, I would like to express my support and heartfelt sympathy for all those impacted by yesterday's event at the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore and extend our appreciation to the co-stars and all first responders. The City and the Port of Baltimore have been our long-time partners and a home to many loyal guests as well as business and community colleagues. We proudly sail year-round out of Baltimore through one of our Carnival Cruise Line ships, which was scheduled to return this weekend. Fortunately, our team has quickly secured a temporary home port in Norfolk for as long as it's needed, which should help to minimize operational changes. So we look forward to getting back to our home in Baltimore as soon as possible. Now, given that this happened just yesterday and the situation is fluid, we did not build this into our earnings materials or full-year guidance. However, we did provide a current perspective that we expect this situation to have less than a $10 million impact on a full-year guidance. With that, I'll turn to our prepared remarks which address the accomplishments included in our strong results and outlook. The first quarter has been fantastic across the board and yet another set of records. We delivered record revenues, record bookings and record customer deposits again this quarter, a great start to the year. I want to acknowledge our global team right off the bat. Everyone has worked very hard to deliver another strong quarter in a very strong way. In fact, we outperformed our first-quarter guidance on every measure. Yields, cruise cost, ex-fuel, and EBITDA enabling us to take our expectations up for the full year. Yields increased over 17% year-over-year, another record, and more than double the increase in unit costs. This was driven not only by closing the occupancy gap but also through solid mid-single digit price increases. Customer deposits beat last year's record by another $1.3 billion, contributing to our strong cash flow and enabling us to prepay another $1.8 billion of debt already this year, which is on top of the $4 billion we prepaid last year. This is meaningful progress on our return to investment grade credit. Most important, we achieved all-time high booking volumes at considerably higher prices. In fact, our North American and European brands both set booking records in the first quarter with pricing strong across all core deployments and across all quarters. Prices ran up double-digits on limited inventory left for Q2. They ran considerably higher for our peak summer period in Q3. And they were also considerably higher for Q4 while still building on our occupancy advantage. Our record book position and activity did not just happen and it is not the result of pent-up demand from repeat guests built up during the pause, which is now years in the rear-view mirror. It is because we have been creating more consideration and broad-based demand for cruise travel in all of our source markets across our well-balanced portfolio. And as a result, we are capturing more new guests than ever before which coupled with our growing base of repeat guests, delivers greater overall demand. Our brands are delivering sustainable revenue growth that hits the bottom line. At the same time, our brands are continuing to pull the booking curve forward in line with our yield management strategy to base load bookings and ultimately support higher overall pricing over the course of the booking curve. As you know, before even entering the year, we already had the best book position on record with less 2024 inventory remaining for sale after absorbing double-digit guest growth, half of which was from closing the occupancy gap and half from higher ship capacity. Those efforts have enabled us to maintain price integrity on the remaining '24 inventory and sets us up nicely to deliver a nearly double-digit improvement in yields this year. This also allowed us to focus more of our efforts through wave on further out bookings, helping to lay the foundation for an early build 2025. It is remarkable that we are even better positioned now for 2025 than we were last year at this time, heading into what is shaping up to be a phenomenal 2024. To aid in that effort, we have been rolling out an enhancement to YODA, our yield management tool designed to facilitate an even more optimal booking curve and which will continue to pay dividends well into the future. Of course, we have more in the pipeline to sustain our momentum and capitalize on this untapped revenue opportunity. For instance, we have three fantastic new ships driving increased consideration and demand to their respective brands. Carnival Jubilee, Carnival Cruise Line's third Excel-class ship was recently christened by Gwen Stefani at her inaugural home port in Galveston, Texas. Sun Princess was recently delivered the first of its class and a real game changer for Princess and soon to be delivered is Queen Anne, a new flagship for Cunard and its first new ship in 14 years. Of course, as you've heard me say before, we do not need new ships to increase yield as we continue to position our brands to drive demand in excess of supply and address the unreasonable value gap to land-based alternatives. We are also continuing to invest in the existing fleet with AIDA evolution, the largest modernization program in that brand history. The planned enhancements to the guest experience are designed to deliver a meaningful revenue uplift across the brand while further reducing its environmental footprint and bolster the performance of one of our highest-returning brands. And speaking of brands that truly outperform, we are also continuing to strategically invest in growth for Carnival Cruise Line. Celebration Key, our exclusive destination purpose-built for that brand's target guest is really starting to capture the imagination as they launched a new marketing campaign right in the heart of wave season. Although early days Celebration Key is already delivering an initial halo for bookings in the second half of 2025 across 18 Carnival Cruise Line ships departing from 10 home ports. We also announced the second phase of development for Celebration Key with a peer extension that can berth two additional ships in future years, further leveraging what will be a best-in-class asset for us. We expect ticket revenue uplift from this incredible destination as the guest experience delivers unmatched funds as well as incremental in-port spending. And this will be coupled with cost benefits driven by considerable fuel savings as it will be the closest destination of our seven owned and operated ports in the Caribbean. This destination is designed to support the continued growth plan for Carnival Cruise Line, including the two recently announced additions to its highly successful Excel-class for delivery in 2027 and 2028. All of these investments demonstrate our disciplined capital allocation strategy. We continue to prioritize our investments towards our highest returning brands and biggest opportunities. This includes investments to reduce our carbon footprint, which will not only have a measurable impact on the environment, but also improve our bottom line. Our strategic investment in advertising is also paying dividends, driving demand across our portfolio with several new campaigns launched during wave. In fact, our web visits are up over a very strong 2023 with increases in both natural search and paid search. We increased our advertising efforts around our strategic foothold in Alaska. Alaska has long been the lifeblood for both Princess and Holland America, and they have launched new campaigns to build even greater awareness for our unmatched land-sea experiences. This initiative isn't just US based. We have stepped up our marketing efforts across Europe with new campaigns for all our major European brands. AIDA's new campaign, Experience Yourself Differently launched in Germany to rave reviews, P&O Cruises' new campaign, Holiday Like Never Before, really hit home with its British guest base. And Costa's newly released campaign focusing on moments where guests are left speechless, has been met with much success in its core markets of Italy, France and Spain. These campaigns have contributed to the continued strength of our European brands, which has been a meaningful driver of our improved outlook. It is particularly rewarding to see our European brands flexing their muscles across their core European deployments. It is a real testament to the strength of our portfolio. The outperformance we've experienced this quarter has been a continuation of the strong demand we've been experiencing for all our core deployments. The Caribbean, Alaska and Europe have all helped deliver over a point of incremental yield improvement. This more than offsets the impact of the Red Sea rerouting as well as changes in the price of fuel and currency exchange rates since our last update. It has also enabled us to raise our full-year guidance for EBITDA and net income. Our improving operational performance coupled with excess liquidity and the lowest order book in decades leaves us well-positioned to continue to opportunistically manage down debt and interest expense while reducing the complexity of our capital structure. This is very much aligned with our return to investment-grade credit over time and our treasury team has been quick to capitalize on this trajectory with an ongoing stream of well-executed transactions to strengthen our balance sheet. With the vast majority of this year's business now booked, we have even more conviction in delivering record revenues and EBITDA, along with a step change improvement in operating performance lasting well beyond 2024. While we continue to optimize yield on the limited inventory we have remaining and still manage down costs, we have been turning more of our attention to delivering an even stronger 2025. We're gaining traction on improvements across the commercial space along our path of continued margin enhancement and increased returns. Again, I would like to thank our team members, ship and shore, the best in all of travel and leisure for delivering unforgettable happiness to another 3 million guests this past quarter by providing them with extraordinary cruise vacations. Of course, we couldn't do it without the support from our travel agent partners and so many other stakeholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to David.
David Bernstein, CFO
Thank you, Josh. I'll start today with a summary of our 2024 first-quarter results. Next, I will provide a couple of highlights about our second quarter and some color on our improved full-year March guidance. Then I'll finish up with an update on our refinancing and deleveraging efforts. Let's turn to the summary of our first quarter results. Our bottom line exceeded December guidance by $100 million as we outperformed once again. The improvement was essentially driven by two things, favorability in revenue from higher ticket prices as yields were up over 17%, nearly three-quarters of a point better than December guidance worth almost $30 million, while cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day or ALBD came in over two points better than December guidance due to the timing of expenses between the quarters, which was worth over $50 million. Per diems improved 5% with improvements on both sides of the Atlantic driven by considerably higher ticket prices. At the same time, we saw outsized growth in occupancy of nearly 20 percentage points at our European brands on their path back to historical occupancy. Our North American brands of occupancy grew strong mid-single digits. The difference in occupancy growth on the two sides of the Atlantic resulted in a sizable mix impact on our consolidated onboard revenue per diems since as we have discussed in the past, our North American brand customers naturally spend more on board than their European counterparts. However, the underlying fact is that we saw an increase in onboard revenue per diems on both sides of the Atlantic, driven in part by the acceleration of strong pre-cruise sales growth. In fact, we saw a continuation of strong consumer behavior by guests onboarders trips, much like our booking trends this past quarter. As Josh indicated, first quarter was fantastic across the board with strong demand for our brands delivering record revenues, record yields and record per diems. Before I discuss our second quarter and full year guidance, I would like to add that given the timing of yesterday's events in Baltimore that Josh mentioned, our guidance does not include the current estimated impact of up to $10 million for the full year 2024 from the temporary change in homeport. Now a couple of things to highlight about our second quarter March guidance. The positive trends we saw in the first quarter are expected to continue in the second. Yield guidance for the second quarter is set at a strong 10.5%. The difference between the yield guidance for the second quarter and the first quarter yield improvement of over 17% is simply the result of the greater opportunity we had in occupancy in the first quarter 2024. With the improving trends we experienced during the first half of last year, 2023 second quarter occupancy was already seven percentage points higher than the first quarter. In addition, I did want to point out that nearly three-quarters of the full-year impact from the Red Sea rerouting is expected to occur in the second quarter with the remainder expected in the fourth quarter. Turning to our improved full-year March guidance. We are now forecasting a capacity increase of 4.5% compared to 2023. March guidance for net income of $1.28 billion is an $80 million improvement over our December guidance. The improvement was driven by two things, more than a point increase in yields to approximately 9.5% based on the considerably higher prices we have seen in booking trends so far this year and the continued strength in demand we anticipate going forward worth about $200 million. In addition, we are forecasting a collective improvement in all our cost lines, excluding fuel of over $50 million, including an improvement in cruise costs without fuel. This improvement of over $250 million is partially offset by the Red Sea rerouting impact of $130 million and the net impact from higher fuel price and currency of almost $45 million. The strong 9.5% improvement in 2024 yields is a result of an increase in all the component parts, higher ticket prices, higher onboard spending and higher occupancy at historical levels with all component parts improving on both sides of the Atlantic. I did want to point out that cruise costs, excluding fuel is expected to be better than December guidance due in part to cost savings related to Red Sea rerouting as certain ships reposition without guests as well as other efficiencies we identified that are included in our March guidance. While absolute costs are lower, the change in cruise costs without fuel per available lower berth day of 0.5 point from December to March guidance is simply the math of spreading all costs over the lower ALBDs resulting from the Red Sea rerouting as certain ships reposition without guests. We recognize that even within our industry-leading cost structure, there are opportunities which we can focus on and harvest over time. A great example is our Maritime Asset Strategy Transformation system, or what we refer to internally as MAST. As previously mentioned, MAST is a centralized system developed to optimize the management of equipment and machinery across all brands and all our ships. As we continue to roll-out MAST, it will allow us to leverage spare parts more effectively across the entire fleet and optimize our maintenance schedules and practices, all of which will strengthen our efficiency and reduce costs from unplanned maintenance over time. I will finish up with a summary of our refinancing and deleveraging efforts. During the first quarter, we generated cash from operations of $1.8 billion and free cash flow of $1.4 billion. We took delivery of two spectacular new ships and utilized two export credit facilities, continuing our strategy to finance our new build program at preferential interest rates. Also during the quarter, we successfully extended the maturity of our forward starting revolving credit facility by two years to August 2027 and upsized the borrowing capacity by $400 million, bringing the total commitment to $2.5 billion. We will continue to look for opportunities to upsize the facility through its accordion feature that allows us to add new banks and grow the commitment. Our efforts to proactively manage our debt profile continue throughout the quarter between open market repurchases early in the quarter and then our call of the remaining 9.9% second priority secured notes, we redeemed over $600 million of debt, removing the secured second lien layer from our capital structure. In addition to our second lien notes, we were able to repurchase almost $400 million of debt at a discount, adding power to our deleveraging efforts. We expect to continue our open market repurchase program on an opportunistic basis. We will continue to call some of our existing debt. In fact, yesterday we prepaid our $837 million euro term loan due in 2025 removing higher-than-average interest rate debt and another secured instrument from our capital structure. This further demonstrates our commitment to an investment-grade balance sheet. Our leverage metrics will continue to improve throughout 2024 as our EBITDA continues to grow and our debt levels improve. Using our March guidance EBITDA of $5.63 billion, we expect a two-turn improvement in net debt to EBITDA leverage positioning us more than halfway down the path to investment grade metrics. In summary, continued execution coupled with strengthening demand for our brands is driving increased confidence in our ongoing performance. We are pleased this has been recognized by S&P and Moody's with their recent upgrades as well as by our banking partners with their recent upsizing and two-year extension of our revolving credit facility. Looking forward, over the next several years, substantial free cash flow will significantly reduce our leverage, moving us further down the road to rebuilding our financial fortress, while continuing the process of transferring value from debt holders back to shareholders.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from Robin Farley with UBS. Please proceed.
Robin Farley, Analyst
Thank you very much. I wanted to ask about your comments regarding significantly higher expectations for the remainder of the year. Based on that, can I assume that your per diem growth for the rest of the year is likely accelerating to around 6% or more compared to the 5% in Q1? I wanted to confirm if this interpretation aligns with your view of what significantly may imply. Additionally, as a follow-up, regarding ship orders, I noticed you placed your second ship order yesterday since the pandemic, and there was a mention about reviewing fleet plans, which seemed to suggest there might be an additional ship order later this year for 2028. Does that interpretation of the language hold? Thank you.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Hi. Good morning, Robin. This is Josh. So, yeah, I mean, the good news is we just experienced a first-quarter booking activity that really knocked the cover off the ball, which is really gratifying to see. The volumes are going to naturally taper down, as we talked about, but the good thing is people are paying for what we have left to offer. And so when we came up with our guidance for yields overall, it was not just based on occupancy, it was based on occupancy plus per diem growth in pricing, and that is playing out. So I won't give you a specific number for rest of year or fourth quarter, but we know the comps get harder, but that's not an excuse. We just need to make sure we're doing what we need to do on the demand and get the per diems up year-over-year every quarter, which is what our expectation is. So that trend has continued well, and the great thing is that hasn't stopped. If you look at the first month of our next quarter of March, that trend has continued. So we're in good stead there, and that's spilling into 2025 as well, where, as you heard me say and David say, we're off to another unprecedented start, which is great to see. As far as the newbuild, yeah, we're incredibly excited that we've restarted our newbuild ordering. But as you mentioned, in line with what I've been saying for almost two years now, which is when we restart, which is what we've done, we're talking about one to two ships a year starting in 2027. There won't be another one in 2027. That will be what we've got. As far as 2028 goes, could there be another one? It's not closed, but I wouldn't necessarily bank on it either. We are working on more things that are going to be geared towards our highest returning brands as we've been talking about. And when there's something to talk about, we'll certainly share it.
Robin Farley, Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies. Please proceed.
David Katz, Analyst
Hi. Good morning. David, appreciate all the insights so far with respect to the guidance etc. But with the ship orders and just taking a much longer-term view, presuming, and I just looking for confirmation that, that doesn't change or alter the path to investment grade by sort of adding some more CapEx to the system longer term.
David Bernstein, CFO
No, not at all. We are on our path to achieving investment grade. We are focusing on paying down and repurchasing debt. As we did in the first quarter, we have already prepaid $1.8 billion of debt this year. With improved EBITDA, we anticipate meeting investment-grade metrics by 2026. It's important to note that we are only discussing one to two ship orders per year, and with the cash generation, we expect to see improvements in our debt and net debt to EBITDA in 2027 and 2028, even with the new orders as we progress toward investment grade.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Yeah, when we came up with our roadmap, sorry, this is Josh. We did factor in the assumption that there would be future newbuilds with stage payments in advance. So that was already factored into how we were thinking about the world and still being able to pay down the debt and get to those investment-grade metrics.
David Katz, Analyst
Understood, Josh. And if I can just follow up quickly, and I know I asked this repeatedly, I'd love to just get your sense for sort of what's at or near the top of the list in terms of just the business in general and other change in execution or how things are done or other improvements that you're working on. Thanks.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Sure. I'm going to sound like a broken record. When it comes to the commercial side of the operations, I think everybody has room to improve across all areas and that's never going to stop being a focus. And we're seeing a good amount of progress and that's across the advertising, across revenue management, across onboard execution, certainly deployment planning, I mean, you name it, we just expect to continually understand our business, understand our guests brand by brand, and have them execute at the highest level possible. So we've talked about some game changers for us around Celebration Key, which will be coming in 2025, a new period, Half Moon Cay, which will open up that destination which is a true jewel to even more guest flow. So there's certainly some very specific strategic assets that we've got moving in place which are going to be a great tailwind for us. But I think the bigger tailwind is really having our brands perform across their core markets, to their core guests, to the best of their abilities.
David Katz, Analyst
Thank you. Appreciate it.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please proceed.
Brandt Montour, Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. Josh, looking at your per diem growth guidance for 2024, and considering the past six to twelve months, we recall that last year you were focused on building a foundation for 2024, in a pricing environment that wasn’t as favorable as it is now. My question is, comparing last year to this year, do you feel more confident in your strategy, and has it changed as you consider base loading for 2025 and the potential for pricing growth over the next year?
Josh Weinstein, CEO
I feel more optimistic because we have another year of experience with our brands, focusing on optimizing their booking curves. This year, we benefit from a more stable environment compared to last year, where each brand struggled with short-term challenges while also trying to think long-term. Thanks to the groundwork we've laid at the start of the year, we have a historic opportunity to focus more on strategic optimization instead of just addressing immediate issues like we did last year. I believe the future looks very promising.
Brandt Montour, Analyst
That’s helpful. Could we delve deeper into the performance of the EA and European brands? I’d like to understand how their recovery compares to 2019 and how they are performing relative to your North American brands. It would be great to break it down by occupancy, ticket sales, and onboard metrics, and indicate where these brands currently stand across those areas.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Let me provide an overview, and David can add further insights if he'd like. The most significant difference between the brands by segment this year is the substantial increase in occupancy that the European brands are experiencing compared to last year. This increase was mainly evident in the first half of the year, after which it normalized considerably in the latter half. Overall, from a pricing and onboard spending perspective, the situation is improving positively on both sides of the Atlantic as we progress through this year. We anticipated that the European brands would significantly contribute to yield improvement due to their occupancy levels, and I can assure you that they are achieving this without compromising on price. Our European brands are successfully managing both price and occupancy.
Brandt Montour, Analyst
Okay.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
David gave me a thumbs up, so I hope that answers your question.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from James Hardiman with Citi. Please proceed.
James Hardiman, Analyst
Hi. Good morning. So maybe just to belabor that last point about occupancy, it seems like at least part of the first quarter success was occupancy was better than you thought. I'm assuming we're at a place now where it's not just about filling rooms, it's about filling rooms with more people to get to higher occupancy. So what drove that outperformance? And is there a way to think about the full year and/or the second quarter occupancy number? Obviously, there's a wide range to what could be considered historical. But I don't know, versus 2019, how should we think about occupancy this year? Thanks.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Hey, James. So I think David talked about last quarter, the historical range, we're talking 104 to 107, and 2019 was the peak at 107. That may or may not be the right ending point for us. And I'm not trying to be vague, because we want to give our brands the flexibility to not optimize for occupancy or price, but it's about yield. It's about the combination of both. So I feel quite good about where we are. We did beat a little bit in occupancy, and we also beat a little bit in price in the first quarter, which was good to see. And from my perspective, I'd like us to outperform on both every single quarter. So, yeah, there's no games here. I expect us to be well in the historical range, and we'll take it and our brands will take it as far as they think it should be in order to get the price combination along with the occupancy.
David Bernstein, CFO
The only thing I'll add is that we essentially returned to historical occupancy in the latter half of 2023. Therefore, the opportunity for occupancy in 2024 is much more significant in the first half, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, where we were able to increase occupancy by 11% in the first quarter. We also anticipate an increase in occupancy in the second quarter.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
And our brands, I don't want you to take this the wrong way. Our brands are being quite thoughtful about opportunities to introduce more families than they maybe had in the past, looking at their cabin configuration. So there's always opportunities and we encourage our brands to certainly lean into that.
James Hardiman, Analyst
That's helpful. And then, yeah, go ahead, David.
David Bernstein, CFO
The only thing I'll add is that we essentially returned to historical occupancy in the latter half of 2023. Therefore, the occupancy potential in 2024 is much more focused on the first half, where we were able to significantly increase occupancy by 11% in the first quarter. We also anticipate an increase in occupancy in the second quarter.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
And our brands, I don't want you to take this the wrong way. Our brands are being quite thoughtful about opportunities to introduce more families than they maybe had in the past, looking at their cabin configuration. So there's always opportunities and we encourage our brands to certainly lean into that.
James Hardiman, Analyst
That's helpful. And then, Josh, you seem to make a point of noting that you don't think the current demand strength is really pent-up demand at this point, which seems to suggest that maybe we've graduated from the post-pandemic phase to the post-pandemic phase. Maybe speak to the secular story that seems to be building here whether it be from an industry perspective or a company-specific perspective, I think a lot of people are just trying to figure out the sustainability of the demand growth that we're seeing. Obviously, per diems are ahead of sort of that long-term algo, right? How long can that ultimately last, and what are going to be the drivers there? Thanks.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
I believe I can speak for the industry here. There is a growing awareness of the value and experience gap that cruising offers compared to other options. Since the pandemic, this gap has widened because cruising provides better value as land-based operations have increased their prices without enhancing the guest experience. Even with our significant increase in per diem, there's still a noticeable value gap. Consumers are smart; they are seeking value and meaningful experiences worth their money. When you consider this, it bodes well for the cruise industry. As a company, we are increasing our advertising efforts to effectively share our message, which provides additional support. Our new-to-cruise bookings are up over 30% compared to the first quarter of last year. This isn't just pent-up demand; we are genuinely reaching a broader audience and delivering great experiences. Therefore, I don't anticipate a decline soon. We have the potential to reduce the gap with land-based options while emphasizing value and experience. This perspective is very promising for the industry.
James Hardiman, Analyst
That's really good color. Thanks, Josh.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Yeah, thanks, James.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel. Please proceed.
Steven Wieczynski, Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Josh or David, regarding the revised yield guidance for the year, increasing it by 100 basis points makes sense since you have greater visibility on how the year will unfold, and your bookings should be very strong. My question is more about the onboard metrics. As you consider the remainder of the year, I would think you're adopting a somewhat conservative perspective on those metrics. If the onboard numbers remain stable, it seems likely that there could be an upside to your guidance. Is it okay if I frame it that way?
David Bernstein, CFO
Steve, as I mentioned earlier, we are observing growth on both sides of the Atlantic. However, there will be a mix impact in the second quarter, though it won't be as significant as in the first quarter. The occupancy growth opportunities for our European brands will be more limited in the second quarter. Nevertheless, we are seeing positive trends on both sides of the Atlantic, and we remain optimistic. We're experiencing continued strength in onboard guest experiences and are accelerating pre-cruise sales. In the first quarter, we noted a double-digit increase in the percentage of pre-cruise sales contributing to onboard revenue. These encouraging developments have been factored into our guidance.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
I would say, Steve, that we aim to provide the best understanding of the current landscape while continuously working internally with our brands to optimize and maximize both ticket sales and onboard spending, which is increasingly important as we focus on a combined perspective due to bundling and how we present our offerings to guests. The momentum has not slowed, and that is the key message to convey. There has been some commentary that raised concerns about potential slowdowns in Q4. However, for us, the opposite is true. We are experiencing acceleration in both volume and pricing in Q4, and we hope this trend continues.
Steven Wieczynski, Analyst
Okay, thanks for that, guys. And then second question, I'm going to ask about 2025. And look, I'm sure you're obviously very limited in what you can say around bookings, given it's still so far out. But if you look at bookings for next year, I guess what I'm trying to get a sense is, are you seeing a change in who's booking today? And what I mean by that is normally you'd be booking your longer, more exotic itineraries right now, but are you starting to see more, what we would call the normal itineraries being booked this far out? And are you continuing to see that new-to-cruise category for next year still be pretty strong or is it just still too early?
Josh Weinstein, CEO
The good news is that we are seeing improvements across the board. It's not only about an increase in world cruise bookings, although that is happening. We're also noticing better revenue management and booking trends overall, which is promising for 2025. While it's likely too early to assess the composition of guests, it's clear our profile is improving as we expand our reach beyond repeat customers to attract new cruise-goers. This indicates that our messaging is effective. Additionally, as we approach 2025 and the opening of Celebration Key, expected in the latter half of that year, we'll have more insights into its positive impact on our offerings.
Steven Wieczynski, Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Thanks.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Jaime Katz with Morningstar. Please proceed.
Jaime Katz, Analyst
Hi. Good morning. I want to piggyback onto that value proposition question we had earlier from James. And I guess, can you talk a little bit about what is motivating consumers to actually convert the booking? Is it bundling? Is it traditional marketing like advertising? Is there something else or has there been sort of any change in the pattern to what is motivating people to make that decision? Thanks.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Certainly. I believe there hasn't been a significant change, but we are executing our strategies more effectively than before. We are enhancing our advertising efforts and improving how we communicate our message. It's crucial to manage our pricing correctly to encourage bookings. I'm sorry, I momentarily lost my train of thought. Overall, I don’t see any fundamental differences, other than being more in-depth and effective in our approach. The positive results we're observing, from bookings to search activity, website visits, and conversions, indicate that our commercial initiatives are effectively disseminating our message. Additionally, it’s important to consider that we have just emerged from a four-year period with no sailings, and now we’re fully operational. This year marks a return to full capacity, with all guests aboard our ships sharing their experiences with friends and family, which helps attract new customers. We're finally at a point where we have all the necessary support systems in place to drive future growth.
Jaime Katz, Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. And then I think there was a comment that there was some benefit to a timing of expenses in the first quarter. Is there any shift in the timing of expenses over the back three quarters that would be helpful to be aware about. Thanks.
David Bernstein, CFO
We provided guidance for the second quarter. The third quarter might be slightly lower than the fourth overall, but we are not seeing any significant changes at this time.
Jaime Katz, Analyst
Excellent. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
Matthew Boss, Analyst
Great, thanks, and congrats on another nice quarter.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Thank you.
Matthew Boss, Analyst
So, Josh.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Is that a question? All right. Go ahead, Matt.
Matthew Boss, Analyst
So near term and maybe relative to the phenomenal wave season and the strength that you cited across brands, I was hoping maybe, could you elaborate on trends that you're seeing today at the Carnival and AIDA brands, maybe relative to the direction of improvement that you're seeing across your other seven brands as we think about maybe just the remaining opportunity across the portfolio in 2025 and beyond?
Josh Weinstein, CEO
That's a good question. Let me think about how to answer that. I would say that both of those brands have fully recovered to pre-pause levels. Their return on invested capital is already back to where it was and actually exceeding it. When we look at the spectrum and consider where all our brands have been and where they currently stand in the commercial space, particularly in revenue management, deployment planning, performance marketing, and brand marketing, those two brands are our leaders in these areas. This gives us a roadmap for the other brands to follow, which is what we are doing. I want to clarify that all our brands are improving. It’s not surprising that those that performed best before are back at the top again. We are ensuring that the insights and practices learned are shared and utilized across the board, which is why we are gradually restoring our return on invested capital. Based on our guidance, we expect to exceed 9% by the end of this year. We have three additional points to achieve our targets for 2026, which I am confident we can meet, and we plan to go beyond that by continuing our progress in the commercial arena.
Matthew Boss, Analyst
And then maybe just a follow-up. So if we think about the booking curve at record levels and obviously providing some increased forward visibility. When we think about pricing power in '25 or multi-year, and I'm just thinking back to the baseline of low-to-mid single-digits, historically, the incremental seems like the experiences and the investments that you've made as we think about opening of Celebration Key in the second half of '25. So just thinking about pricing power moving forward, maybe relative to the historical baseline, what the opportunities may be?
Josh Weinstein, CEO
While I wish I could say it's that straightforward, it's not entirely simple. Celebration Key is going to be incredible, and we are already starting to see its positive effects. However, it's crucial to highlight that when we effectively manage revenue and optimize our booking timeline while carefully adjusting pricing, we avoid drastic price reductions later on. It's all about the numbers, and this approach enables us to sustain price consistency, leading to year-over-year price increases. Regarding our other brands, some have successfully implemented this strategy for years, while others are now starting to adopt it, and we are beginning to see improvements. The encouraging part is that there is significant potential for this trend to continue.
Matthew Boss, Analyst
Great. Best of luck.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities. Please proceed.
Patrick Scholes, Analyst
Great. Good morning. Thank you. Josh, certainly, you've talked sort of high level on positives around Celebration Key. I'm wondering what sort of daily cruise pricing premium you're seeing or maybe expecting for itineraries that do stop at Celebration Key. Thank you.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Hey, Patrick. We’re not providing guidance for 2025 yet. Since we’re not operating there until then, I’ll be cautious in my response. To start, we are anticipating an increase in both ticket sales and onboard spending, which will translate into onboard revenue. It's premature to share specific details. When we made our investment in Celebration Key and decided to expand with additional berths, we did so with a strong return on invested capital, derived from three main factors: increased ticket sales, higher onboard spending, and the advantages of our proximity to home ports in the United States, which significantly reduces our fuel costs. These three elements are guiding our decision-making, and we believe this will enhance the guest experience and become a tremendous asset for us.
Patrick Scholes, Analyst
Okay. And then just a follow-up on that. From a high level, what are some of the opportunities for upsell once you are on the island of Celebration Key? I'm aware of competitors and what items they charge for and what they don't. Although this might seem like an easy question, what do you think people will be willing to pay extra for to have an even more special time on your island? Thank you.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Sure. It will be a mix of different elements. We're developing a private beach club as part of the larger Celebration Key project, which is located on Grand Bahama, an excellent location for us. We will offer a significant number of cabanas, including overwater cabanas and various sizes that guests can rent for the day. You'll be surprised at how much people are willing to spend on cabana rentals. There will also be food and beverage options and retail opportunities. This is just the beginning with phase one, as we've only developed about a quarter of the property we own. Phase one consists of these features, and phase two will introduce additional guest experiences, spaces, and revenue opportunities.
Patrick Scholes, Analyst
Okay. I'm all set. Thank you.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Thanks, Patrick.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Ben Chaiken with Mizuho. Please proceed.
Ben Chaiken, Analyst
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I want to discuss the cost cadence a bit more. It seems that the first quarter performed better than expected, possibly due to some timing issues. Can you confirm if that means some costs were pushed into the second quarter and if the second quarter also accounts for 1.3 points from Red Sea? Considering this, the full-year cost guidance is at 5% constant currency, which likely indicates something in the mid-single digits for the latter half of the year, especially since year-over-year occupancy comparisons will become easier. Am I understanding these dynamics correctly? Additionally, could you provide more insight into the factors you are considering for the second half? Thank you.
David Bernstein, CFO
Sure. The moving parts are correct. The average for the first half of the year, which was 7% in the first quarter and 3% in the second, is about 5%, and the second half is also around 5%. Some of the differences are influenced by dry dock days due to different timing between the quarters. In December, I mentioned the increase in dry dock during the first quarter. There are also variations in advertising and other factors between the quarters. I always encourage people to evaluate us based on our full-year cost guidance since the timing of expenses between quarters can sometimes depend on our decisions regarding spending on repairs, maintenance, and other matters. So, consider it from a full-year viewpoint, as that is the best way to assess our performance.
Ben Chaiken, Analyst
That makes sense. Just maybe a little bit more detail on the dry dock. Could you maybe clarify the quarters? I believe originally it was 1Q and 4Q were the heavy dry dock quarters. Is that still the right way to think about it or how would you?
David Bernstein, CFO
Yeah, that is. And the 1Q is considerably higher than the second quarter or the fourth quarter.
Ben Chaiken, Analyst
Thank you. I appreciate it.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
So, operator, I think we got time for one more question.
Operator, Operator
We have a question from Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Lizzie Dove, Analyst
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I think your ticket price per passenger is very strong this quarter, and it sounds like a pretty decent outlook for this year and '25. I'm curious how much of that is kind of benefit from some of the new hardware. The Firenze joining the fleet over from the other brand, Carnival Jubilee, Sun Princess. How much do these new ships impact pricing? What kind of premium are you getting and how does it change how you manage the pricing for the rest of the fleet?
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Good morning, Lizzie. Welcome to your first call or the first call since you've been covering us. There is no doubt that the new ships command a premium. The way we manage this varies by brand and depends on the specific itinerary because we may not want to assign the best ship to the best itinerary, as that wouldn't be beneficial for the overall brand. There are many factors to consider. However, just to put things into perspective, we have nine brands, most of which haven't received new builds and won't for some time. The pricing improvements we're seeing are not only limited to brands with new ships; those that haven't received new builds are also experiencing significant pricing improvements. While I do appreciate the new ships, they are only three out of our 95 ships. The 92 other ships achieving strong demand and pricing will have a greater impact on us than a premium from one or two ships. So, while I understand the question, it's far more crucial for us to increase the per diems across the rest of the fleet, which we have been very focused on.
Lizzie Dove, Analyst
That's helpful. I have a follow-up regarding James' question about the long-term growth outlook. I know your company tends to attract more new-to-cruise customers compared to others in the industry. You mentioned that you reached 3.5 million new-to-cruise guests last year. How many of those do you expect to turn into repeat cruisers? Additionally, what is the outlook for actual category expansion?
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Our brand repeaters increased by 9% year-over-year, which indicates an overall growth in demand for the long term. Generally, cruisers do not sail every year; ideally, we're looking for them to return every three to four years if they enjoy their experience with us. This is a key part of our growth strategy, as we aim to attract a significant number of them to cruise with us again in that timeframe.
Lizzie Dove, Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
Josh Weinstein, CEO
Okay. Well, thank you, everybody. I appreciate the questions and look forward to seeing you all soon.
Operator, Operator
That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.