Earnings Call Transcript - CMCL Q4 2020

Steven Curtis, CEO

Well, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining the 2020 Results Presentation of Caledonia Mining. It's a pleasure to present these results, and you'll understand why as we run through the very successful financial results, operational results and just a general update for Caledonia. So let's proceed without any further ado. The disclaimer, most of you will be familiar with, and we have to put it up there. So there it is for you. Now moving on to the 2020 highlights. It really is encouraging and pleasing to be able to talk to highlights in a year that most of us look back and wish had never happened. 2020 was a tough year from a COVID perspective, affected every single one of us. Luckily, COVID had a minimal effect on Blanket Mine. We had one case at the mine during 2020, but the structures that have been put in place, the discipline that is demonstrated by the staff saw us through the COVID pandemic, and it did not affect our overall operating results at Blanket Mine to the extent that we recorded a record production of 58,000 ounces. Blanket, as it always does, had very well-controlled costs. Obviously, there were some exceptional costs because of COVID, and Mark will talk about those just a little bit later when we get into the financial review. A very, very good strong set of financial results, high production, a higher gold price arena. I'm not going to elaborate too much on the financial results because Mark is going to talk about them, but there are four very, very important points. Turnover hit the $100 million level, a 32% increase above previous years. Gross profit hit $46 million, a 50% increase. And adjusted earnings per share hit just over $2.00 a share, $2.04 a share, which was a 41% increase. So all in all, that says the business is running well, and we demonstrated that during the year by increasing dividends four times. That gave shareholders a cumulative increase of 60% on the return that they got via the dividends. We are confident about the outlook for the future for Caledonia and Blanket Mine. The Central Shaft, which has been this five-year long project, will be commissioned during Q1 of this year, 2021. That will then draw a line underneath the project. Dana and his teams will be able to bring into operation the Central Shaft into the structures of Blanket Mine, enabling us to ramp up production this year to 61,000 to 67,000 ounces. Looking forward into 2022 and onwards, that's when we'll hit our anticipated run rate of 80,000 ounces, which is the target we've been putting out there for the last five years, and we're very excited that it is now just around the corner. Equally as important, we've spoken about Caledonia's ambition to become a multi-asset operation, which we demonstrated at the end of last year when we announced the signature of two exclusive exploration rights on two properties. We will be exploring there for the next 15 to 18 months, and we will then be able to make a decision as to whether we exercise those options, purchase the properties, and decide what the next steps are. Our brownfield operations, the Glen Hume operation, is actually undergoing drilling at the moment. Connemara North is in late-stage planning, using consultants to provide their insights about where best to site the drill holes. The highlights are very pleasing, and we'll go into more detail for you when we go into the financial results. Looking at the health and safety performance of the mine, critically important to us, top of most agendas, the Nyanzvi initiative really set the mine up to deliver another excellent set of results. We continued with training where we could, but at a very, very reduced level during 2020 because of COVID and social distancing. The benefits of Nyanzvi flowed through, and that enabled us to achieve record production. Just shows if you lay the foundations well, you will reap the benefits later on. Increased awareness has resulted in a continuing reduction in total accidents, and that continues to be our objective. Our people are paramount to us from an importance point of view. Their safety is critically important, and we will continue to strive to improve here all the time. Training never stops. We didn't have a large staff turnover in the year, but we will continue to do the training as and when necessary. I think I've spoken enough about COVID. We did assist the Chamber of Mines in Zimbabwe with some donations, which they distributed more broadly into the Zimbabwe environment. We were able to do some of our own projects, and we'll talk about those a little bit later. Overall, the shaft was a bit delayed, but as I've said, commissioning will happen this quarter. It must be remembered, though, that some of the underground development work was delayed to a greater extent, and that needs to be caught up this year, which is why we have a slightly lower target of 61,000 to 67,000 ounces. But we can still, with the work done previously and the work that will be done this year, hit that 80,000 ounces in 2022. One of the CSR projects we delivered is particularly exciting as it was conceptualized, planned, executed, and delivered during the height of the pandemic. This was an isolation center at the Phakama clinic, located in the local community areas where we operate. This enabled us to build two isolation wards for the local communities, a decent ablution facility, and kitchen facility. We equipped these isolation wards, and now that the pandemic is hopefully behind us, these will serve as great assets for the area, providing respectable and decent surroundings for the local community at large. We are very proud of what the team managed to accomplish on this project. From an operating point of view, I've already mentioned that we produced 58,000 ounces. The graph shows that there was a gradual ramp-up of tonnage, which was as per the plan. We had a great start and continued to progress to the 58,000 ounces grade. We continue to work hard to deliver a good grade to the mill, so planning is essential. The grade, obviously, affects the overall recoveries, the number of ounces produced, and how your costs pan out at the end of the day. This is not a particularly high-grade mine, but we can still generate a decent blended grade across the various ore bodies. We can get the tonnes we need, which gives us confidence that we will be able to deliver the 80,000 ounces because we will have more infrastructure available to us when the Central Shaft is commissioned, enabling us to move more tonnes with more underground development done for increased access to stopes for the mining teams. This allows for more flexible planning. We can therefore get the tonnes out to the plant at the required grade and deliver the required ounces. Blanket just continues to deliver and slowly ramps up during five years when we had to look after the mine, generating sufficient and significant cash flows. This slide tells a very good story about the capabilities of this operation, and we should be very proud of a slide like this and the overall results. Electricity continues to be a challenge in southern Africa, where we operate. Blanket runs off the national grid, which in Zimbabwe is constrained, as are many of its neighbors, but it does buy power from its neighbors, South Africa and Mozambique. We went through a difficult cycle when there was a severe drought, resulting in less power coming from the hydroelectric scheme at Kariba. I'm pleased to say that this issue has improved this season. While electricity remains a problem and we do have the diesel generators with 18 megawatts of capacity, this option is expensive and not environmentally friendly. Therefore, we decided last year to build a solar farm. Ultimately, we will operate with grid power, diesel generators as necessary, and solar power. The important thing for us is that during daylight hours, the solar farm will provide us clean and consistent power, addressing one of the issues with the grid power, which generally tends to be of lower and variable quality, not ideal for sophisticated machinery. The solar farm is a very strategic piece of insurance for us, and we look forward to that coming to fruition. The solar farm will provide 12 megawatts of power, which will cover about 27% of Blanket's daily requirements. It is fully funded; we completed our funding last year. Mark anticipated a great opportunity, and we executed an ATM fundraise in New York, raising $13 million gross, placing us in an enviable position to fully fund this project. The go button has been pushed, the ground has been cleared, and Voltalia is in full delivery mode. We should expect to have solar power sometime in 12 months from now. So this time next year, we will be a generator of solar power, and we are very excited about that. We're now going to go into the financial review, and I'm going to hand over to Mark to deliver what are really a very, very good set of results.

Mark Learmonth, CFO

Thank you, Steve. So just looking at some of the highlights, Steve discussed the production level, nearly 58,000 ounces, a record. So production was 5% up. The gold price was obviously higher, leading to a 27% increase in price, which, along with production, contributed to revenue of $100 million, a 32% increase. Gross profit was up by 50% to $46.7 million, and adjusted profit attributable to shareholders was also up by about 55% to $23.8 million. We strip out foreign exchange gains and losses for adjusted profit. Last year, we incurred substantial profit on the disposal of a subsidiary. This year, we strip out that background noise to give you a pleasing increase in attributable profit. Earnings per share, as Steve mentioned, was just over $2 per share, placing us at a current price-to-earnings ratio of about seven. As Steve mentioned, we've progressively increased the dividend pretty much quarter-on-quarter, resulting in an overall dividend paid in 2020 at $0.335, about 22% higher than the $0.275 paid the previous year. Looking at the profit and loss, I've already mentioned revenue; the royalty remains the same, at 5% of revenues. Production costs increased by about 20%, from $36 million to $43.7 million. This increase includes a sizable component of what I call non-controlled costs, which I'll discuss in more detail later. Gross profit increased from $31 million to $46 million. General and administrative expenses rose from $5.6 million to $8 million, largely driven by higher insurance and increased wages and salaries, but again, I'll discuss that in more detail later. Last year, we had a substantial foreign exchange gain of nearly $30 million; this year, it was much smaller at $4 million. The reason for the foreign exchange gain reduction is simply because once you've written liability down, there's not much further you can take. Thus, despite the continued devaluation of local currency, the foreign exchange movement was much lower. Profit before tax was $60 million last year, down by $40 million this year. However, don't forget that the $60 million included large foreign exchange gains. I will talk in more detail about taxes later. While the overall tax rate of about 37% appears high, I can provide context for that. I think there's little more to say on the profit and loss account; it reflects a very strong performance. I mentioned that I would discuss production costs in detail. Here you see the breakdown of production costs by main components. Wages and salaries increased from just under $14 million to just over $16 million, a 16% increase. This increase was primarily due to a 12% increase in man-hours worked and the introduction of a slightly more aggressive bonus structure. To clarify, we pay our workers a combination of local currency and US dollars, so we aren't affected by Zimbabwe's high inflation rate; the amount we pay in local currency is determined each month based on the prevailing US dollar RTGS exchange rate. Consumables also increased. A significant proportion of this increase relates to the cost of maintaining the underground fleet of trackless equipment; these costs will continue for a few years. We believe we have our arms around this now, as we've improved maintenance schedules and upgraded our fleet with newer equipment. Previously, we bought secondhand equipment due to capital constraints. You can also see about $800,000 of COVID consumable costs, which clearly weren't incurred the previous year. Electricity is split down between the costs of grid power and diesel. The cost appears to have gone up due to increased power usage. However, it's fair to say that in 2019, for part of the year, we were paying for our grid power in local currency; at one point, we were effectively paying around USD 0.01 per kilowatt hour, which is ridiculously low. That has corrected this year, contributing to the increase in investor costs. A significant increase in the cost of diesel for the generators resulted from needing to run the generators longer, costing about $1.8 million. This increase led to our decision last year to proceed with the first phase of the solar project, as we cannot see the electricity situation improving and it could worsen, highlighting the need to protect the business and proceed with solar. On-line administration costs slightly decreased, as that is one of the few areas where our costs are denominated in local currency, and we benefited from further local currency devaluation. The LTIP, long-term incentive awards for certain company staff, incurred an expense of $600,000, largely determined by share prices. As share prices rise, so do the award sizes. Therefore, this is not a cost we control. The overall IFRS production cost went from about $36.4 million to $43.7 million. Within that, in 2020, there's about $3.3 million of what I call non-controlled costs—COVID costs, diesel costs, and share-based expenses. Removing those for a like-for-like basis, controlled costs rose from about $34.9 million to approximately $40 million, a 16% increase. As for cost per tonne, there was approximately an 8% increase, with the actual cost per tonne going from $62.78 to $67.61. Frankly, anything below $70 is a figure we are pleased with. A little more detail on G&A, broken down into the main components. Investor relations costs were reduced as many of last year's planned events converted to virtual events. While we knew we had a compelling story to tell, these virtual events were cheaper and contributed to decreased travel costs. Advisory service fees increased from $400,000 to $900,000, reflecting the considerable amount of activity in 2020. For example, we incurred legal costs related to the delisting from Toronto, the filing of the FV registration document with the SEC, which we subsequently used for the ATM, and legal expenses associated with the solar project incurred before we received Board approval to proceed. I do not expect this level of fees to continue as they reflect actions we've taken for business benefit. The increase in wages and salaries, from $3 million to just over $4 million, resulted from headcount growth at the Johannesburg office, primarily due to senior appointments in geology and rock mechanics, plus a new investor relations role in London. There were also management bonuses reflecting strong performance. The significant increases in management liability insurance, known as DNO insurance, rose from under $100,000 to over $1 million, reflecting a tightening in the market for this type of cover. We are not the only smaller mining company to experience this increase, further exacerbated for us because our primary trading market is in the United States, making insurers more concerned about potential class actions. This context explains why G&A costs increased from about $5.6 million to nearly $8 million. Reviewing cost per ounce, in 2019, the cost per ounce was $651, benefiting somewhat from lower electricity charges in the first half of 2019, which were not present in 2020, contributing to the $744 an ounce in 2020. This includes about $3 million of what we call non-controlled costs, roughly equivalent to about $56 an ounce. Similarly, the all-in sustaining costs rose from $856 to just over $1,000 per ounce, which also includes about $3.2 million of non-controlled costs and $1.4 million of share-based expenses, putting that increase in context. Looking ahead, as we grow production and reduce CapEx, we expect the all-in sustaining costs to move towards $700 to $800 per ounce from 2022 onward, likely nearer the top of that range due to higher gold prices. Lastly, a word on taxation. The overall tax charge of $15.1 million represents an effective rate of about 37% from our IFRS profit before tax, which appears high. However, the main components of the tax include Zimbabwe income tax of $8.1 million and Zimbabwe deferred tax of $5.7 million. If you express those as a percentage of gross profit, which is close to our profit before tax, it yields an effective rate of about 27%, very close to the headline income tax rate in Zimbabwe of 25.75%. Therefore, the underlying tax charge—Zimbabwe income taxes, and Zimbabwe deferred tax—is reasonable. We also incur tax in South Africa of about $760,000 on intercompany profit, which does not disappear on consolidation, contributing to the overall tax charge of approximately $15 million. Analyzing cash flow, the number I find most encouraging is that the cash flow before working capital increased from $28 million in 2019 to $42.5 million in 2020. This shows that even at a production rate of 58,000 ounces, this business is highly cash-generative, and we expect that cash generation to increase as production escalates, costs decrease, and CapEx falls. We did experience working capital absorption; this was a deliberate increase in stock levels to protect against lockdowns when we were reliant on stocks of cyanide and explosives, and you can see continued high levels of investment at $28 million last year, which includes $2.6 million spent on securing new exploration properties, Glen Hume and Connemara. We will continue to invest heavily this year in both the mine and the solar project, and we expect CapEx to began tapering off from 2022 onwards. Regarding financing, net finance income stood at $7.3 million, boosted by a $12.5 million net equity raise via the ATM last year, offset by $4.5 million in dividend payments. Our cash position remains very strong, confirming that this business is highly cash generative.

Steven Curtis, CEO

Thank you, Mark, and excellent to discuss numbers that look like that. As I said before, I am very proud of the team at Blanket and the Caledonia team for holding the ship together and achieving fantastic results for the shareholders. So regarding the outlook, we've discussed previously, we aim for 80,000 ounces in 2022. The infrastructure that our operational team has is vastly improved from where we started. Our new six-meter diameter, four-compartment shaft reaches down to 1,200 meters, providing access to deeper ore for longer. Therefore, the future of this mine is secured for approximately the next 14 years, until 2034, demonstrating that there is substantial value in this business. Despite its operation for over 110 years, it is a remarkable ore body comprising a collection of ore bodies, and we are extremely excited about the future. We've made significant investments. Mark has already highlighted how cash-generative this business truly is. In context, the Central Shaft alone has consumed $67 million in investments since January 2015, all generated by the mine during lower gold prices and production periods beneath what we've recently seen. This illustrates that a good operation will always deliver and provide the flexibility expected by a management team. Regarding opportunities in Zimbabwe, we have explored many over an extended period and were pleased to announce two last year. The Connemara North property is now in a late planning stage. Currently, no drills are operating there, but we have an exclusive exploration project there spanning approximately 18 months. If we discover what we hope for, we can exercise the option to purchase this property for just over $5 million with a 1% net smelter royalty. If you're producing gold and generating profit, a 1% net smelter royalty is quite favorable, given we have capped the introductory price. The slide clearly shows this as a brownfield operation, previously owned by First Quantum, which decided not to continue during some troubled times in Zimbabwe. We have endured those difficult periods, and we are confident in our operation and excited about expanding our asset base in Zimbabwe. The other project is called Glen Hume, located in the same region as Connemara North, near Gweru, with both properties within 30 kilometers of each other. Thus, they are useful if we can find something on both. However, these are exploration opportunities. We will conduct appropriate exploration exercises and update the market as we find results. We are very satisfied with adding these projects to our portfolio. From a sustainability perspective, we take our responsibilities as an operator in a developing country very seriously and hold ourselves to high governance standards. High levels of foreign exchange do not exempt us from being diligent miners, extracting resources in a manner benefiting both the country and shareholders. Health and safety are extremely important—this remains our top priority. We continue to train and emphasize the importance of health and safety to our workforce. Our teams weathered the COVID storm and have emerged with great credit; they take pride as 10% owners of Blanket Mine. This ownership level will remain, even with changes in Zimbabwe's ownership laws allowing Caledonia to own 100% of the property. However, we will always partner locally, and our staff will maintain their 10% stake. We also value our local community; they own 10% of the mine, and we maintain a defined CSR project, which we will discuss in detail later. I've briefly mentioned our work at the Phakama clinic and projects concerning schools and community development. We take this aspect of our business seriously. Regarding the environment, we operate to the highest international standards with our tailings dams. Our solar project rollout is another part of our commitment to responsible operations. We aim to measure our actions against the best standards, acting appropriately for a business of our size in our region, ensuring responsible operations. Corporate social responsibility is deeply embedded in our culture and continues to grow in importance. We focus on five pillars: education for locals, health initiatives, agricultural support in rural areas, assessing our environmental footprint, and empowering women and youth. This legacy is significant, and we prioritize structured approaches, committing yearly funds to these initiatives. The Board has recognized this importance, and we recently appointed a new non-executive director to lead and guide us, drawing from her 20-25 years of expertise in this area. We are sincere in our commitment; the community relies on us, and we rely on them for mine success. We collaborate closely, which requires effort, funding, and discipline— we are fully dedicated to this endeavor. Strategically and in summary, our goal is to reach a production target of 80,000 ounces from 2022 onwards, leading to increased cash flows and enabling us to pursue further opportunities, offering us more choices. As production rises, we will lower our average all-in sustaining cost, yielding economies of scale as the proportion of fixed costs remains. We will continue deep-level exploration, extending the mine's life beyond the current projection of 2034. High levels of cash generation will flow through to Caledonia as CapEx tapers off, meaning we can increase returns to shareholders. We've increased our dividends by 60% over the past 12 to 14 months, an achievement we take great pride in. The cash generated allows us to seek further opportunities, both domestically and internationally, should we not identify suitably valuable prospects to pursue. We will not stagnate; we will not rest on our laurels, but will tirelessly seek new opportunities, invest wisely, and generate shareholder returns, aiming to enlarge Caledonia from a single asset, small company into a larger, mid-tier gold producer with multiple assets and possibly in diverse jurisdictions. The future is promising, and we know we can succeed, bolstered by our team. We eagerly anticipate the way forward.

Mark Learmonth, CFO

I think that's everything, Steve, so I believe we are finished. Thank you.

Steven Curtis, CEO

Thank you once again for your time. We look forward to discussing further as the year progresses and when we release additional quarterly results. Thank you for your time, and cheerio.