Earnings Call Transcript - CPAY Q3 2020

Operator, Operator

Greetings and welcome to the FLEETCOR Technologies Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. Jim Eglseder, Head of Investor Relations for FLEETCOR Technologies. Thank you. You may begin.

James Eglseder, Head of Investor Relations

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter 2020 earnings call. With me today are Ron Clarke, our Chairman and CEO; and Charles Freund, our CFO. Please note, our earnings release and supplement can be found under the Investor Relations section on our website at fleetcor.com. Throughout this call, we will be presenting non-GAAP financial information, including adjusted revenues, adjusted net income and adjusted net income per diluted share. This information is not calculated in accordance with GAAP and may be calculated differently than non-GAAP information at other companies. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial information to the most directly comparable GAAP information appear in today's press release and on our website as previously described. Now before we begin our formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that part of our discussion today may include forward-looking statements. This includes statements about our recovery and outlook, new products and fee initiatives, and expectations regarding business development and acquisitions, among others. They are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, you should not put undue reliance upon them. These results are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect. Some of those risks are mentioned in today's press release, on Form 8-K, and on our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents are available on our website and at sec.gov. With that out of the way, I would like to turn the call over to Ron Clarke, our Chairman and CEO. Ron?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Okay, Jim. Thanks. Hi, everyone, and thanks for joining our third quarter earnings call. Upfront here, I plan to cover four subjects: first, provide my perspective on Q3 and our Q4 outlook; second, provide an update on our AFEX cross-border acquisition; third, I'll discuss our plans for pivoting the work of the company in getting back on offense; and then finally, I'll close with some preliminary thoughts on next year. Okay. So let's start with our Q3 results. Earlier, we reported Q3 revenue of $585 million, that's down 14%, and cash EPS at $2.80, that's down 10% versus last year. We did manage operating expenses down 9% in Q3 versus last year, obviously, to minimize the impact on our bottom line. The macro environment was not helpful in the quarter, primarily due to weaker Brazilian FX; we estimate that it depressed our Q3 revenue by approximately $33 million. Organic revenue growth overall in the quarter was down 12% versus last year, but that is a sequential improvement of 5% from Q2. Corporate pay also improved sequentially, with their revenue down 11% in Q3 versus being down 17% in Q2. We did see a step rate improvement in what we call same-store sales or client softness between Q2 and Q3. So softness improved to minus 8% in the quarter versus minus 17% in Q2, which is a pretty significant recovery point-to-point. Good news on the client retention front: we improved a point there to 92%, highlighting that all of the weakness is attributable to client softness. Sales are recovering further here in Q3, finishing at 80% of the prior year, up from 54% of the prior year in Q2. Inside of that, our corporate pay sales in the quarter finished at 100% of the prior year, so we are seeing a nice rebound there. Credit performance has been nothing short of outstanding, with our Q3 credit losses finishing lower than last year and even $8 million better sequentially than Q2. So in summary, Q3 was clearly a better quarter for us than Q2. Volumes, rate recovery, client softness, and rebounding client retention are all signs of improvement. Sales are starting to get back to normal, recovering to 80% of last year. We are managing expenses down, and our credit performance remains strong. So overall, we are seeing an improving performance. In terms of transitioning to expectations for Q4, I want to share a couple of thoughts. Historically, FLEETCOR's Q3 and Q4 performance has been relatively similar in terms of revenue and earnings because weakness from seasonality or fewer business days is generally offset by business growth throughout the year. However, this quarter, we are not sure what to expect: whether volumes will further recover or simply flatten and plateau. We are planning to manage operating expenses down about 10% to 12% below last year, and we are forecasting sales to further strengthen, hopefully coming in more than 90% of the prior year. So it's a bit of a wait and see. Moving on to AFEX, the B2B cross-border payment company that we signed up and announced in September. It's a bit of a Cambridge look-alike. About two-thirds the size of Cambridge in revenue, although far less profitable. It was a grower, growing in the pre-teens pre-COVID, and its outlook in 2020 performance is expected to be about flat with 2019. The rationale for the deal is pretty straightforward. It's a business that we know and like, growing on its own, with a significant total addressable market. As we mentioned in the press release, this business is quite complementary to ours as it strengthens our position in Europe and Asia. Our conviction in the AFEX synergy plan is high, as we have run a similar integration process a few years ago with Cambridge. Once closed and fully run-rated, we expect accretion in the $0.25 to $0.50 cash EPS range, which we believe will be a good contributor. In terms of timing, we are still tracking to a Q1 2021 close, subject to customary regulatory and antitrust approvals. Now, I want to pivot to the work of the company and getting back on offense. Like many companies, we've been consumed with our COVID response work, putting a lot of energy into that. We feel we are coming out the other side and can redirect our attention to several key areas. One key area is sales. We are very focused on getting sales back; you can see evidence of the recovery, moving from 50% sales production versus last year in Q2 to 80% this quarter, with hopes of exceeding 90%. So there is some evidence that sales performance is returning to normalized levels. We are making investments now in anticipation of next year, adding salespeople and some select digital initiatives. We've reopened credit to pre-COVID levels across many of our businesses to improve our approval rates. We are also back on the tech front, having stepped up investments in technology, particularly around digital tech. We've developed and launched a new client UI, receiving very favorable user experience scores. It's a mobile-centric platform, representing a significant improvement in our client-facing front end. We are better at leveraging API layers to speed up interfaces and connections to partners and accounting systems, which aids our ERP integrations and generates leads in our corporate payments business. For the moment, we've begun embracing electric vehicle recharging in Europe, adding EV networks in the U.K., the Netherlands, and Germany. These EV networks complement traditional fueling networks, as clients want their total purchases consolidated across their mixed fleet, retrieving data in one place. Surprisingly, the economics for EV seem adequate; in mixed fleets, it is nearly neutral for us. We continue to earn card fees for electric vehicles, enjoy higher MDR rates within the charging network, and receive subscription fees for managing at-home and workplace charging. At least initially, we appear to be well-positioned as an integrator as clients transition their fleets to electric vehicles. In terms of acquisitions, we are back aggressively pursuing opportunities, alongside AFEX. We are exploring a couple of new deals in and around our corporate payment space and are comfortable with our liquidity and management capacity to pursue these options. Lastly, I want to look ahead to next year, 2021. I see signs of optimism in our outlook. Firstly, while COVID has impacted client activities, we anticipate further recovery in volumes and revenue from existing clients, which will be incremental to the recovery we've already noted. Secondly, we expect significant growth in sales moving forward, with encouraging signs already visible contributing to increased revenue from new business. Thirdly, we are resuming our Beyond initiatives, focused on cross-selling additional revenue opportunities from existing clients. Fourthly, trends like client retention and credit are expected to continue positively into next year, aiding our outlook for performance in '21. Lastly, we expect to close the AFEX acquisition and potentially encounter a few more deals next year. Overall, we think several positive factors will shape our outlook for 2021.

Charles Freund, CFO

Thank you, Ron. I'm happy to be here on my first earnings call as CFO. I'd like to note that in an effort to streamline my prepared remarks, all of my rates of change are on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted. So let's delve into it. The third quarter of 2020 was affected by COVID-related business slowdowns, but to a lesser degree than what we experienced last quarter. As such, we reported revenue of $585 million, down 14%. GAAP net income decreased 16% to $189 million, and GAAP net income per diluted share decreased 12% to $2.19. As usual, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial metrics, including adjusted net income and adjusted net income per diluted share, with a reconciliation to GAAP numbers provided in Exhibit 1 of our press release. Adjusted net income for the third quarter of 2020 decreased 14% to $242 million, and adjusted net income per diluted share decreased 10% to $2.80. We are well-positioned to recover business alongside economic advancements. I'm pleased with our ability to manage expenses effectively and minimize negative impacts on our bottom line. From a macro perspective, the third quarter of 2020 results reflect a negative year-over-year impact of approximately $33 million in revenue, primarily due to lower foreign exchange rates, mainly the Brazilian real, which had a negative impact of about $28 million. Fuel prices were also down year-over-year for the quarter, contributing another $9 million negative impact on revenue. However, fuel spreads had about a $4 million favorable effect. Organic revenue in the quarter was down 12% overall, mainly because same-store sales were down 8%. Our fuel category witnessed an organic decline of about 11%, net of unfavorable macro impacts. There are various moving parts in our fuel businesses worldwide, but, as shown on Page 8 of the supplement, volumes in our international businesses have recovered more than volumes in the U.S. fuel businesses since international economies have reopened more compared to the U.S. The corporate payments category was down approximately 11% in the third quarter. Approximately 8 points of the decline originated from significant softness in a small portion of our over 9,000 customers. These 100 customers experienced the highest year-over-year revenue decline during the COVID pandemic. Lower spending on our travel and entertainment (T&E) product drove another 3 points of the organic drag. You'll notice that in the earnings supplement, we've included a new slide on Page 9 for clearer illustration of this point. Aside from those 100 customers and T&E card activity overly affected by COVID, our corporate payments business is holding up quite well, showing some resilience. In the corporate payments category, virtual card volumes were flat for the quarter, an improvement from being down 12% last quarter; political spending and new customer acquisitions mitigated the drag from highly affected customers. For our cross-border or FX-related volumes, they remained down in the mid-single-digit range, as payment volumes were still affected by reduced invoice levels, especially in manufacturing and wholesale trade. It's essential to note that our cross-border business is very different from that of Visa and MasterCard, which primarily targets consumers traveling between countries. Our cross-border business facilitates payments for international trade and isn't reliant on travel recovery. Full AP performed exceptionally well, with volume increasing by 20%. New sales of Full AP were robust, having sold more than three times compared to last year due to both direct and reseller wins. Looking at tolls, which continues to be our most resilient business, it grew organically by 3% in the third quarter, stable with the last quarter, as the subscription-based revenue model wasn't significantly affected by the COVID-driven slowdown in the Brazilian economy. Active toll tags increased by 5% in the quarter, as our new methodologies for tag sales, including direct sales at toll plazas and introducing low-frequency plans, offset the decline in sales at malls and stores. Parking volumes have decreased due to work-from-home policies, but fuel and drive-through volumes have shown signs of recovery as residents have resumed normal activities. The lodging category saw a 32% organic decline in the third quarter, with 9 points of that decline attributed to the inclusion of the acquired airline lodging business in the previous year. Our workforce business outperformed our airline business, and we expect workforce to continue improving as business activities pick up. However, we recorded lower margins for the quarter, as large enterprise accounts with lower rates recovered faster than small business accounts. Additionally, we experienced rate compression as hotels reduced prices due to sluggish business and low occupancy levels, affecting revenues. Recovery for the airline lodging business is anticipated to be slower, dependent largely on the airline industry's recovery. Moving down the income statement, total operating expenses decreased by 9% for the third quarter of 2020 to $321 million, which was our target for high single-digit reductions year-over-year. This decrease was primarily due to lower volume-related expenses, reduced employee-related costs from headcount reductions, lower sales commissions, and reduced T&E spending, along with the impact of foreign exchange rates. Operating expenses represented approximately 54.8% of total revenues, a roughly 470 basis point improvement from the last quarter. Bad debt expense in the third quarter of 2020 stood at $13.5 million, or 6 basis points, relative to $14.6 million, or 5 basis points, in the third quarter of 2019. Bad debt levels remain favorable, and our aging roll rates are very advantageous. However, uncertainties surrounding government stimulus and various responses to increasing COVID cases around the globe remain considerations. Interest expense declined by 14% to $31.4 million, driven by decreases in LIBOR related to the unhedged portion of our debt and lower borrowings from our securitization facility due to reduced volumes and fuel prices in the third quarter. This was partially tempered by additional borrowings for share buybacks. Our effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2020 was 19.8%, a reduction from last year primarily driven by the incremental excess tax benefit on stock option exercises. Now, turning to our balance sheet, we finished the quarter with $1.37 billion in total cash, of which approximately $582 million is restricted and consists mainly of customer deposits. As of September 30, 2020, we had $3.8 billion outstanding on our credit facilities, and $688 million borrowed in our securitization facility. I would note that in the quarter, we secured a commitment to extend our $1 billion securitization facility for another year upon its expiration in November, providing us ample capacity to support future growth. In total, we have a liquidity of approximately $1.6 billion, consisting of available cash on our balance sheet and our undrawn revolver at quarter end. The primary change in liquidity from the last quarter was the termination of the short-term $250 million bridge loan, which we closed due to a lack of need for additional liquidity at this time. We remain committed to a consistent capital allocation strategy using our free cash flow for both acquisitions and buybacks. During the quarter, we repurchased 1 million shares at an average price of $238, utilizing free cash flow generated in the quarter. We also announced the acquisition of AFEX for $450 million that Ron discussed earlier. Some might have thought we forgot how to conduct M&A the FLEETCOR way, but clearly, that is not the case. We perceive this as a classic FLEETCOR deal that you've come to expect. We remain disciplined with acquisitions; deals will remain irregular. We've demonstrated that we have ample liquidity to pursue any near-term M&A opportunities while still opportunistically buying back shares when appropriate, as we did this quarter. Notably, in October, our Board of Directors approved a $1 billion increase to our share repurchase authorization. Finally, we recorded approximately $18.1 million in CapEx during the quarter and finished with a leverage ratio of 2.77x trailing 12-month EBITDA as of September 30. I want to remind everyone that our businesses are very resilient. While they have all declined due to the COVID pandemic, they have substantially recovered from their low points. However, due to the uncertainties surrounding global reopenings versus shutdowns, we are currently not in a position to provide guidance. We expect to manage expenses 10% to 12% below last year's fourth quarter to balance current profitability with investment for future growth.

Operator, Operator

Our first question is from Ramsey El-Assal from Barclays.

Ramsey El-Assal, Analyst

Could you provide some commentary on the trends you're observing in the business right now compared to Q3 levels?

Charles Freund, CFO

Ramsey, this is Charles. It's a pleasure speaking with you this evening. What we've observed inter-quarter has been a bit lumpy; some indicators are moving positively while others negatively. It's hard to consistently measure what will occur. Overall, Q3 was an improvement compared to Q2, which is a favorable outcome. However, it's difficult to ascertain precise inter-quarter trends.

Ramsey El-Assal, Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. Could you also provide updated commentary on what you're observing in terms of recovery rates for larger versus smaller customers? I understand this differential in recovery rates has been impacting revenue yields. I'm curious if smaller customers are starting to bounce back more strongly or how that landscape looks now?

Charles Freund, CFO

Yes, it varies by line of business. In our fuel business, we've seen a bit more recovery, especially in trucking within the small fleet segment. Keep in mind that small fleets experienced a more substantial decline compared to large fleets, so they've been recovering more quickly, but they're still not at the levels of recovery of the large fleets. In our lodging sector in the U.S., we are still seeing that phenomenon, with smaller customers lagging behind the large customers significantly.

Operator, Operator

And our next question is from the line of David Togut with Evercore ISI.

David Togut, Analyst

Good to see corporate payments bookings reached 100% of year-ago levels. Can you frame for us whether this business might return to meaningful growth in 2021? This has historically been your best growth engine, yet you highlighted the bookings performance despite about 100 clients remaining quite weak. Can you help us think about the year ahead and where you might land in this business?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Yes, David, it's Ron. I'll emphasize that it depends entirely on the sick client group we outlined in the supplement. Some of the most troubled clients in the T&E business have significantly declined, resulting in a projected performance of minus 11% for the quarter, remaining flat without those clients. Certainly, the non-T&E, non-sick clients will contribute to growth in 2021. The uncertainty lies in how much of the current softness we see in Q3 will return. We are monitoring this closely, and we noticed some encouraging signs in intra-quarter virtual cards, indicating some recovery.

David Togut, Analyst

Got it. Thanks for that insight. As a follow-up on capital allocation, you increased the buyback authorization by $1 billion and are nearing the AFEX deal completion. How should we approach the year ahead considering share repurchase versus other meaningful M&A?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Our philosophy remains consistent. We have several deals in our pipeline, some of which are in the late stages. We maintain a balance between having enough liquidity for upcoming deals and being strategic with share buybacks when our stock price is favorable. This dual approach guides our strategy. Our liquidity is still well over $1 billion, correct?

Charles Freund, CFO

Yes, that's right.

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

So we have plenty of resources available, plus the option to borrow more if needed.

Operator, Operator

And our next question is from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang Wang with JPMorgan.

Tien-Tsin Huang Wang, Analyst

I want to ask, Ron, on the new sales and bookings. Do you recognize any pent-up demand? Additionally, what is your confidence level in replenishing the pipeline as you adapt to a new selling rhythm during this pandemic? What's the ground situation like?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Yes, I'm uncertain about the sales prospect. It's not just pent-up demand; I'd define it as tension. The marketplace has become more receptive, and clients seem less distracted now. We’ve been analyzing Google Analytics search volumes across all our categories and observe that there’s increased receptivity. Secondly, we’ve found a rhythm for how to sell. Our sales teams have adapted from in-person meetings to digital channels well. This 80% sales figure we've reached is promising, particularly in the corporate pay sector. I'm optimistic about setting a new sales forecast exceeding 90% for Q4, especially since we've completed one month successfully.

Tien-Tsin Huang Wang, Analyst

Does this imply you're not quite ready to boost capital towards sales and marketing efforts, or is this on a different level compared to expenses?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Yes, the reason it looks like there's not a major uptick in sales and marketing is due to softer commission rolls resulting from our poor Q2 performance. However, we decided about 60 days ago to begin ramping up investments in both personnel and targeted digital initiatives. So, no, we recognize sales as crucial. This is our primary focus moving forward, and we are in the process of developing a sales plan for next year that keeps the company progressing.

Tien-Tsin Huang Wang, Analyst

I appreciate that perspective. A final question regards the Cambridge strategy with AFEX. Are these integration strategies quite similar? You seem confident about achieving normal accretion.

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Yes, we’re utilizing our well-established playbook. We've seen success with Cambridge, where we've significantly increased profitability from '17 to '19. I assure you we will deploy the same strategies with AFEX. Additionally, since both businesses share common attributes, we anticipate double synergies in combinations, as compared with Cambridge, further supporting our positive outlook.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Steven Wald with Morgan Stanley.

Steven Wald, Analyst

Regarding the corporate payments, you discussed working through backlogs on previous bookings. How does the business outside of T&E appear, given improvements are noted? Can we expect a significant upward trend as implementations speed up?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

That's a great question, Steven. Some of the softness we've seen in 2020 relates to sales, but also to stalled implementations. Many implementations were delayed, especially due to the challenges faced in Q2. We are now observing promising signs of renewed activity in implementations over the past couple of months. The critical factor will be how many of these customers remain engaged and cooperative with us in executing their implementations.

Steven Wald, Analyst

Lastly, could you provide updates on your Beyond initiatives in Brazil considering the pandemic's disruptions?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Certainly. In Brazil, the pandemic impacted our operations significantly. There was a noticeable slowdown in demand for services like fueling and parking amid government restrictions. We've since observed a rebound in activity after the reopening, and we’ve been actively pursuing the Beyond initiatives to entice users who typically wouldn't engage with us. We're expecting to see continued improvements as the country is reopening.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with Deutsche Bank.

Ashish Sabadra, Analyst

I'd like to focus on the corporate payment side. Referring to Slide 8, could you highlight segments that might not be recovering, while everything else improves? Assuming virtual card and FX contribute heavily, how do we align the perceived volume decline?

James Eglseder, Head of Investor Relations

Yes, Ashish, we're probably going to have to follow up on that and crunch some numbers. This is Jim. But I'm not certain how profound the disconnect is.,

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Could you reiterate the question for me, Ashish? I want to ensure I understand it accurately.

Ashish Sabadra, Analyst

In a broader context, aside from T&E, were any specific areas within the segment impacting growth?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Yes, the variance between volume recovery and revenue is primarily due to mix. Some channel partners offering lower revenue-generating opportunities have shown greater recovery rates. Unfortunately, these partners contribute less per spend dollar. It’s worth noting that sectors such as healthcare have experienced a surge, although their margins are lower than traditional businesses, which could affect our aggregated results. Our domestic fuel business has generally observed a recovery curve that's significant, although we are still cautious concerning smaller credit accounts amidst concerns around fraud. Overall, the situation doesn't appear quite as stark compared to the corporate payments business, where we see more variability due to tighter restrictions among impacted clients.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Neill from Goldman Sachs.

Matthew O'Neill, Analyst

Ron and Chuck, could you clarify about re-extending credit? Are we back to pre-COVID levels across the board, or was that a quarter-end comment?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

No, it wasn't simply a blanket approval at the start of the quarter; our approach has varied by business types and client sizes. Some businesses have rebounded faster than others. As for the current status, we are roughly at 80% to 85% of normal with some exceptions, particularly in the smaller digital and Beyond segments.

Charles Freund, CFO

This is Charles. We've also retained cautious credit measures in sectors still significantly challenged by the pandemic, primarily those heavily reliant on travel.

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Yet, we remain adaptable. Our credit loss figures have been encouraging over the last two quarters, guiding us towards a more balanced growth approach.

Charles Freund, CFO

In terms of the expense reductions and their permanence, several are linked to volume and may rebound as our sales increase. Some efficiencies driven by foreign exchange rates and low bad debt levels could endure for a while. We will manage expenses yet look for opportunities to switch to growth.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Bob Napoli with William Blair.

Robert Napoli, Analyst

The corporate payments business seems to be a key driver for hitting your historical targets. What is strategically needed to expand this business? Where are you investing to innovate, and what key M&A opportunities are you exploring?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

That's a great question, Bob. We see this business as a game board with different segments. Our goal is to pinpoint areas where we can excel and understand the necessary capabilities for segments where we currently aren't involved. We identify opportunities for vertical growth, especially in sectors like construction and within smaller markets that we have not yet fully explored. Additionally, we've talked about the potential to enhance the value chain through automation, which would enable us to better support our clients. Our strategy will focus on building our skills in these areas.

Robert Napoli, Analyst

Are you primarily building invoice automation internally, or are you considering potential acquisitions?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

I won't elaborate too much, except to say we remain open to various options. We're committed to this space and will be expanding our footprint.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of John Coffey with Susquehanna.

John Coffey, Analyst

Regarding Slide 8, I noticed a modification in structure compared to last quarter. Should I interpret the last column as sequential growth from Q2 to Q3, or is it based on some other parameter?

Charles Freund, CFO

John, this is Charles. The trends you're observing in Slide 8 reflect both Q2 year-over-year and Q3 year-over-year; the last column reveals the difference between Q2 and Q3. For instance, in local fuel, we’ve improved from minus 17% to minus 12%, representing a 500 basis point advancement showing sequential recovery.

John Coffey, Analyst

Additionally, I've seen the declines among the 100 most impacted customers. Is it reasonable to attribute that primarily to the T&E cards, or does it also encompass virtual cards?

Charles Freund, CFO

In slide 9, we are specifically separating T&E card products from the analysis, so the 100 customers experiencing the most impact are engaging our payment products, either virtual card, cross-border, or AFEX services.

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

It's essential to emphasize that the impact of COVID has varied greatly within client segments. Our business performance reflects the overall health of our client base. The downturn experienced is primarily tied to a narrow segment of clients severely affected by the pandemic, but overall, our other sectors are showing positive signs.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of George Mihalos with Cowen.

Georgios Mihalos, Analyst

I'm interested in understanding the electric vehicle transition, particularly how it's progressing in Europe and when we could anticipate similar dynamics in the U.S. Are the economics sustainable? What should we monitor?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Sure. Regarding economics, we find our current involvement in EV is healthier than expected. Companies requiring comprehensive vehicle usage data find our service valuable, even for electric vehicles. As for the U.S., the speed of adaptation will likely depend on government incentives and prioritization. Our observations suggest that market demands will create a competitive environment similar to what we see in Europe.

Georgios Mihalos, Analyst

Could you address some points on the full AP business? I believe it grew by 20% in Q3, yet July saw volumes up 27%. Should we evaluate the anticipated trajectory for this business?

Charles Freund, CFO

Certainly. The 20% growth referencing Slide 8 accounts for embedded volume growth. We are now comparing against synergies established last year post-acquisition. Essentially, we're engaging organic growth, with ongoing transaction volumes overcoming COVID-related challenges.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Trevor Williams from Jefferies.

Trevor Williams, Analyst

Charles, regarding the expenditure comments you made earlier, can we expect robust investments in sales and marketing linked to your returning revenues? Should we assume lower incremental margins than the traditional 70% level during the revenue upswing?

Charles Freund, CFO

We remain disciplined and balanced. Our investments will be incremental, but our focus will be on shifting resources effectively. Cost controls are maintained across operations, allowing for a more significant investment in sales and marketing. Thus, I wouldn't foresee dramatic changes to our margins; it's more about reallocating our existing spending to focus on growth.

Trevor Williams, Analyst

Regarding your comment on hoping for sales to increase to 90% of last year's level. Are you referencing new sales or total revenue?

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

That metric reflects new sales. We track quarterly new business and its predicted revenue generation. When I quote 80% for Q3, that’s an analogy comparing current quarterly new business to that of a year prior. We strive to reach 90% in Q4, leveraging the patterns observed thus far.

Trevor Williams, Analyst

Thanks for clarifying that.

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Remember, achieving a healthy sales growth against attrition is crucial for us. With retention increasing, we are building a reliable structure for our future revenue growth.

Operator, Operator

And our final question comes from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

Mihir Bhatia, Analyst

Quickly, could you share insights from the fuel card segment? Are any specific sectors or customers not recovering as expected? Additionally, could you elaborate on the implications of potential renewed lockdowns in parts of Europe?

Charles Freund, CFO

In the fuel card business, we continue to observe certain softness among small businesses. Areas like manufacturing and public transport are still lagging behind in recovery in our local fuel business. Regarding Europe, while we saw recovery, we remain vigilant with the impending lockdowns, though indications suggest they may be less stringent than previous measures.

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Indeed, we analyze all client segments and recognize that while we observe a favorable recovery in sectors like fuel, there are still some severely affected clients within our portfolio affecting overall performance. Moving forward, we're helping manage the varying impacts of COVID across our diverse client base.

Operator, Operator

And there are no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over for closing remarks.

Charles Freund, CFO

Nothing further on our end, everyone. Let me know if you need anything else; I am always available. Have a good evening.

Ronald F. Clarke, Chairman and CEO

Thanks, everybody.

Operator, Operator

That concludes the conference call for today. We appreciate your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you, and have a great day.