Earnings Call Transcript - CSIQ Q1 2024

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Canadian Solar First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Mei, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Wina Huang, Head of Investor Relations of Canadian Solar. Please go ahead.

Wina Huang, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Canadian Solar's First Quarter 2024 Conference Call. Please note that today's conference call is accompanied by slides available on Canadian Solar's Investor Relations website within the Events and Presentation section. Joining us today are Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO; Yan Zhuang, President of Canadian Solar's subsidiary, CSI Solar; Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP and President of Canadian Solar's subsidiary, Recurrent Energy; Dr. Huifeng Chang, Senior VP and CFO; and Xinbo Zhu, who will be taking over the CFO position on May 15, 2024. All company executives will participate in the Q&A session after management's formal remarks. On this call, Shawn will go over some key messages for the quarter. Yan and Ismael will review business highlights for CSI Solar and Recurrent Energy, respectively, and Huifeng will go through the financial results. Shawn will conclude the prepared remarks with the business outlook, after which we will have time for questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that management's prepared remarks today, as well as their answers to questions, will contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The company claims protection under the safe harbor for forward-looking statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ from management's current expectations. Any projections of the company's future performance represent management estimates as of today. Canadian Solar assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future unless otherwise required by applicable law. A more detailed discussion of risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's annual report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management's prepared remarks will be presented within the requirements of SEC regulation G regarding generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP. Some financial information presented during the call will be provided on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. By disclosing certain non-GAAP information, management intends to provide investors with additional information to enable further analysis of the company's performance and underlying trends. Management uses non-GAAP measures to better assess operating performance and to establish operational goals. Non-GAAP information should not be viewed by investors as a substitute for data prepared in accordance with GAAP. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Canadian Solar's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Shawn Qu. Shawn, please go ahead.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Wina, and thank you to everyone for joining our first quarter call today. Please turn to Slide 3. We delivered strong results in line with our guidance. In the first quarter of 2024, we delivered 6.3 gigawatts of solar module shipments, realizing revenue of $1.3 billion, and an improved gross margin of 19%. As we have mentioned in the past, our priority is to drive high quality, profitable growth, which means at times we're willing to take lower-priced deals. In a challenging environment, our significant recovery in margin from that of last year's final quarter underscores our resilience. Indeed, with respect to our module business, we are at a very difficult point in the cycle. Fierce competition is creating immense near-term headwinds for the industry. However, I hope we will see improvement in the second half as the market rationalizes. Demand continues to be strong, and we are seeing signs of improvement in the distributed generation market and certain regions. While prices have stabilized, they will remain at historically low levels. In April, during my presentation at Harvard University, I discussed how advances in generative artificial intelligence are expected to boost electricity demand, and how solar coupled with energy storage is well-equipped to support AI development. For example, in the U.S., a 1 kilowatt solar system can generate approximately 4 kilowatt hours of electricity daily on average. Paired with a 2 kilowatt hour lithium battery energy storage system, this configuration can shift half of the electricity generated for nighttime use, creating a reliable and controllable energy supply around the clock. The resulting levelized cost of electricity can be as low as $0.07 per kilowatt hour, competitive with fossil fuels, even without accounting for the carbon credits. As AI development accelerates, it is crucial that we do not compromise our climate change objectives, ensuring that the surge in electricity demand is sourced from clean energy. The world is rapidly evolving, and we are instrumental in driving these changes. Amidst a dynamic industry landscape, we're deploying tailored strategies across our increasingly diverse business. In our module business, we focus on achieving profitable growth and increasing our market share in key strategic markets. At Recurrent Energy, we are in the process of finalizing the BlackRock investment and advancing our extensive pipeline of solar and battery energy storage projects. Simultaneously, our e-STORAGE platform is experiencing rapid growth as we secure our contracts in new markets and enhance our proprietary technologies for both utility-scale and residential applications. Next, I would like to discuss our progress and achievements in environmental, social, and governance practices. Please turn to Slide 4. Today, differentiation in our industry takes many forms. Our customers and partners, ranging from financial institutions to sophisticated project developers and utility companies, are increasingly focused on ESG. Operating transparently and sustainably yields substantial commercial impact, and our leadership is evident. Highlighting just two of our recent achievements, we were awarded Silver rating by EcoVadis, one of the world's largest and most trusted providers of business sustainability ratings. Canadian Solar scored especially high in the environmental and sustainable procurement categories, placing among the top five companies rated by EcoVadis in our industry. We are also pleased to win, for the second time, the Environmental Finance Green Project Bond of the Year awarded for our $120 million green samurai private placement. The award recognizes our innovative financing strategies in our global development business. We look forward to sharing more details in our upcoming annual sustainability report, which we expect to release in the coming weeks. Lastly, I would like to address the concerns regarding the recent filed anti-dumping and countervailing duty petition. While we will not speculate about ongoing cases, I want to convey our confidence in the face of any potential challenges that may arise. We have been navigating similar cases for over a decade and have consistently managed risk effectively on behalf of both our company and our customers and partners. Furthermore, as Thailand is both a WTO member and a market economy, it likely faces lower AD/CVD risks. Our local leadership and professional cross-functional teams are among our key competitive edges. As a Canadian company with a plan to invest over $1 billion in new manufacturing in the U.S., we hope to continue playing our part in ensuring a long-term and resilient domestic solar supply chain. With that, let me turn the call over to Yan, who will provide more details on our CSI Solar business. Yan, please go ahead.

Yan Zhuang, President of CSI Solar

Thank you, Shawn. Please turn to Slide 5. In the first quarter of 2024, we shipped 6.3 gigawatts of modules, with North America accounting for over 20% of the total share. Revenue reached $1.3 billion, and our gross margin increased 630 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 18.4%. Despite a significant decrease in module prices compared to the same period last year, and a contraction in the overall profit margin of the industry, CSI Solar still posted an operating income of $82 million. As Shawn highlighted, these gains in profitability are due to our deliberate management of volume and the boost from our expanding energy storage business. While the first quarter is seasonally softer, our results were primarily driven by our team's disciplined execution. Let us walk through some key drivers. Please turn to Slide 6. Our costs in the solar module business continued to decline as we expand our N-type TOPCon capacity, a trend bolstered by the recent reduction in polysilicon prices. Our processing costs are decreasing, although moderated by planned expansions in the second half. These include our upstream investments in ingots and wafers, as well as U.S. manufacturing. With increased vertical integration, we aim to further reduce costs and enhance control over our supply chain. Following the rationalization of our capacity expansion plans starting last year, our utilization levels have remained healthy. In terms of the market, we see demand is robust but price sensitive. We remain hopeful of a recovery in ASPs in the second half, although this improvement may be moderated by the availability of low-cost PERC products. Against this challenging backdrop, we are combining strategic order management with cost savings to navigate the market effectively. In the views of both solar and energy storage, we are intensifying our investment in research and development. Our R&D team has grown to nearly 1,300 members. Today, our mass production TOPCon cell efficiency has reached 26.5%. In energy storage, we are dedicating R&D efforts to both upstream and downstream initiatives, thereby enhancing our technology for both commercial and strategic purposes. As Shawn highlighted, we are committed to ESG principles and have been continuously advancing our technology and operations to reduce carbon emissions throughout the entire product life cycle. We have received not only the French Carbon Footprint certification but also the Thailand Environmental Product Declaration certification. Additionally, our Thailand module factory is the first facility outside of Korea to earn the Korean Carbon Footprint Certification. Turning to e-STORAGE, please refer to Page 7. In the first quarter, we recognized revenue from over 1.1 gigawatt hours of shipped product. The revenue and volume of this quarter topped the total for all of 2023. We currently have a significant backlog valued at $2.5 billion. Our contracted backlog reflects both newly contracted opportunities and reductions from revenue recognition. Given energy storage is a project-by-project business, its growth may be uneven. Regarding manufacturing capacity of energy storage, we have not only achieved our target of 20 gigawatt hours for the year, but we also plan to expand further next year to 30 gigawatt hours in response to our robust demand. Additionally, with our impeccable track record, e-STORAGE is proud to have earned a place on the prestigious Bloomberg NEF energy storage Tier 1 list for the second quarter of 2024. This award recognizes e-STORAGE as a leader in delivering bankable and reliable energy storage solutions globally. Finally, I'm pleased to provide encouraging updates regarding UFLPA detentions. Since our first detainment in the second half of last year, we have fully cooperated with CBP to provide detailed information, demonstrating our strict traceability procedures. We're happy to share that at this point, a majority of our bonds have been approved for release and now have been excluded. In terms of the impact on our customers, we believe we have addressed associated risks almost in their entirety. Now let me hand over to Ismael to provide an overview of Recurrent Energy, Canadian Solar's global project development business. Ismael, please go ahead.

Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP and President of Recurrent Energy

Thank you, Yan. Please turn to Slide 8. Since the announcement of BlackRock's $500 million commitment in January, we have made swift progress. Having secured most requisite regulatory approvals, we anticipate closing within the next few months. As part of this transaction and in our commitment to enhancing ESG transparency, Recurrent Energy is actively developing an independent ESG strategy to guide our future growth. In early 2024, we joined forces with a reputable, sustainable firm to conduct a comprehensive double materiality assessment, aligning with the guidelines of the European Union's corporate sustainability reporting. This assessment aims to pinpoint ESG issues that hold significance for our business, including both risks and opportunities as well as our operational impact on these matters. We remain laser-focused with our goal of operating 4 gigawatts of solar and 2 gigawatt hours of battery energy storage systems by 2026. We are focused on advancing our substantial solar projects, including approximately 1.5 gigawatts of solar projects that are currently under construction. AI represents a significant opportunity, and we are witnessing this demand firsthand in our business. We have already secured nearly 700 megawatts of PPAs with top cloud service providers and are in the process of negotiating hundreds more megawatts of PPAs. More broadly, we continue to target 70% to 80% of our generation assets to be secured under long-term contracts exceeding 10 years with top-tier companies from a financial rating perspective. Now moving on to quarterly performance. Please turn to Page 9. The first quarter was relatively modest with no major project sales. We achieved $39 million in revenue with a gross margin of 33.1%. During this period, we also strengthened our footprint in Spain through a strategic acquisition that added over 420 megawatts to our project pipeline. Currently, we have projects at different stages of development in Spain, and we anticipate reaching more than 1 gigawatt of solar projects in the country in 2024. Turning to Page 10. We are proud to have one of the world's largest and most mature solar and energy storage project development pipelines. I would like to particularly highlight our recent progress in the Japanese BESS market, where as of March 31, 2024, our solar and BESS project development pipelines have reached 240 megawatts and 1.7 gigawatt hours, respectively. The unveiling of the Long-Term Decarbonization Auction results on April 26 represents a significant milestone for Japan's energy landscape. This system provides long-term income predictability for projects, including those involving battery energy storage. We are honored to have secured three of the best projects in this auction, totalling 93 megawatts, which accounts for 13.3% of the total awarded energy storage projects. Now let me hand over to Huifeng, who will go through our financial results in more detail. Huifeng, please go ahead.

Huifeng Chang, Senior VP and CFO

Thank you, Ismael. Please turn to Slide 11. In Q1, we delivered $1.3 billion in revenue and a gross margin of 19%, in line with guidance. The sequential decrease in revenue primarily reflects a decline in solar module shipment volume and a decline in module average selling price, which were partially offset by higher battery energy storage solution sales. Gross margin improved 650 basis points quarter-over-quarter due to strategic management of module volume coupled with upside from e-STORAGE. Operating expenses declined in Q1, mainly driven by lower general and administrative costs due to cost-cutting measures. Shipping costs temporarily increased due to the Red Sea crisis that has since decreased. Net interest expense improved sequentially by $17 million, mainly driven by $19 million of interest received on refunds of the anti-dumping and countervailing duty deposits from the Solar 1 proceeding. Total net income was $12 million or $0.19 per diluted share. Now on to cash flow and the balance sheet. Please turn to Slide 12. Net cash flow used in operating activities in the first quarter of 2024 was $291 million. The sequential decrease in operating cash flow primarily resulted from increased inventories and project assets. Our total assets have surpassed $12 billion, driven by significant growth in product assets and solar power systems, setting the stage for future profit generation. In the first quarter, we spent around $266 million in capital expenditures, progressing our U.S. supply chain and TOPCon manufacturing capabilities. Our full year 2024 capital expenditure expectation remains unchanged at approximately $1.8 billion. We ended the period with a healthy cash balance of $2.9 billion and a total debt of $4.3 billion, which reflects incremental borrowings for working capital and additional vertical integration for CSI Solar, as well as new product development for Recurrent Energy. Lastly, I would like to say a few words about the CFO transition. Please turn to Slide 13. I want to thank Shawn, the Board of Directors, and our shareholders for the opportunity they have extended me over the past eight years. Canadian Solar has now evolved into a globally leading provider of solar and energy storage solutions, spanning both manufacturing and project development. As both our company and the world have evolved, I see my role transforming as well. I'm excited to continue making an impact at the company, notably in our U.S. business operations through my new position as Chief Strategy Officer. I confidently hand over the reins to Xinbo, whom I have worked closely with throughout my journey at Canadian Solar. I'm confident he will contribute to the company achieving even greater feats. Before I hand the call over to Shawn, let's pause for a moment to hear from Xinbo.

Xinbo Zhu, Incoming CFO

Thank you, Huifeng. I'm grateful to Shawn and the company's Board of Directors for entrusting me with this new role. I would also like to thank Huifeng for his invaluable guidance and support throughout the transition period and look forward to working with the Board and the Canadian Solar senior management and finance team to continue executing on our vision and strategy, ensuring long-term value for our shareholders. Now, let me turn the call back to Shawn, who will conclude with our guidance and business outlook.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thanks, Huifeng, and thanks, Xinbo. Let's turn to Slide 14. For the second quarter of 2024, we expect solar module shipments by CSI Solar to be in the range of 7.5 to 8 gigawatts, including approximately 100 megawatts of solar module shipment to our own projects. Total battery energy storage shipments are expected to be between 1.4 to 1.6 gigawatt hours, including about 800 megawatt hours to the company's own project. Total revenues are expected to be in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion. Gross margin is expected to be between 16% to 18%. Regarding our outlook for the later half of the year, I would like to highlight four key trends. We remain hopeful of an improvement in both supply/demand dynamics and profit levels within the industry during the second half. e-STORAGE is expected to significantly contribute to our revenue and profitability, even more so in the second half than in the first. Our advanced N-type TOPCon capacity will continue to ramp up, enhancing efficiency, yield, and cost to meet market demand, which is rapidly surpassing our PERC. We expect continued improvements in the distributed generation market where we have traditionally excelled. With that in mind, for the full year of 2024, we are adjusting CSI Solar's total solar module shipment guidance to be in the range of 35 to 40 gigawatts. We expect full year revenue to be in the range of $7.3 billion to $8.3 billion. Our revised shipment and revenue forecast underscore our dedication to profitable growth as we navigate a challenging macro environment. With that, I would now like to open the floor for questions.

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer.

Colin Rusch, Analyst

Could you talk about the pricing dynamics for utility-scale batteries? And what you are seeing in terms of trajectory and how that translates into margin for the company? Obviously, with the rationalization of the supply chain on the cell production side, there's some potential for margin expansion, but I'm curious how you guys are thinking about those two trajectories matching up as it flows through the guidance?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yes, Colin. I would like to ask Yan to provide a comment on this question.

Yan Zhuang, President of CSI Solar

Right. This is Yan. As you know, contract signing or negotiation for utility storage contracts has always been at least one or even two years ahead of shipping. So we've been signing contracts, and most of our contracts are indexed over the lithium covenants pricing. So we're protected in terms of margin, and this margin is healthy. Even for the pipeline that we're negotiating today for 2025, 2026, sometimes even 2027, we're still seeing a healthy margin. So we're actually pretty safe there.

Colin Rusch, Analyst

And then just shifting gears to Recurrent and construction timeframes. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of not just grid access permits and interconnection permits, but really just the construction timeframes? And what you're seeing at the civil level, both in the U.S. and Europe right now in terms of the cadence of that and any sort of slowness or ability to quicken the pace on those construction timeframes?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yes, I think this question is for Recurrent, so Ismael, do you want to comment?

Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP and President of Recurrent Energy

Sure. Thanks for the question, Colin. We are not experiencing significant delays in civil works or anything of the sort, but we see many of the EPC competitors facing challenges. So what we are doing is engaging with them well before construction starts, like one to one and a half years ahead, when we begin doing engineering detail analysis, so we can make sure that these teams are ready by the time the EPC kicks off. It's taken nine months to build a site of reasonable size, roughly 150 megawatts or so. In Europe, it's more difficult. That's why we took action last year to acquire an EPC company to grow our own EPC in Europe. We acquired a company that has their own piling machines and everything, and thanks to that, we have been able to achieve reasonable timelines on execution like one year, something like that. I hope that helps, Colin.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Praneeth Satish with Wells Fargo.

Praneeth Satish, Analyst

So I guess on the revised guidance for module shipments in 2024, it still assumes a sharp recovery in the back half of the year. Maybe if you can just unpack the drivers, the confidence level that you have in that recovery? And then as a follow-up, I think you've been prioritizing margin here with shipments in the first half. So as you see a recovery in the second half, do you think you can maintain gross margins at the 17% to 19% type of range? How should we think about that?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yes. I will still ask Yan to comment on this question. Yan?

Yan Zhuang, President of CSI Solar

Okay. We realize the oversupply situation, but we still believe that the demand in the second half is going to be stronger than the first half. Also, we're continuously reducing our costs on both COGS and OpEx. Our TOPCon capacity will continue to ramp up and improve. We believe that the distribution channel, particularly in mature markets, is recovering. So we are confident that we can actually get more volume at a reasonable margin moving into the second half of the year.

Praneeth Satish, Analyst

And then maybe just switching gears. So on the AI data center side, obviously, a lot of power consumption is coming. I guess in the U.S. on the CSI Solar business, on the module business, are you seeing any data centers or data center developers come to you directly to start preparing for load generation later this decade? How large of a pipeline do you think this is? And then do you think there's an opportunity here to enter into some multiyear supply contracts, just given the visibility of this growth?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

CSI Solar typically deals with developers and EPC companies. The EPC developers manage the data center. So I would ask Ismael to provide some color on the data center activities.

Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP and President of Recurrent Energy

Thank you, Shawn. Look, what we are seeing is, first of all, we saw a big shift in re-signing the PPAs. By far, the number one PPA signing company in the world right now is Amazon, and they are very keen on continuing to sign as much as they can. The top four PPA signing companies are the IT companies, and they are engaging with us on several year agreements to do development basically for them, based on their expectations on where they are going to be having all this power generation. We are even discussing going further beyond our services to these companies because they are truly struggling to have the power they need on time. The projections they have for the short term are much higher than what we see in any of the reports that are usually distributed in the market.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Philip Shen of Roth Capital.

Philip Shen, Analyst

First one is around the U.S. I was wondering if you could share the percentage of revenue and shipments from the U.S. in Q1? And what's your expectation for Q2 and Q3?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Well, Philip, this is Shawn. On one of our slides, I think the second page or the third page, we show the shipment. North America accounts for 23% in terms of gigawatt shipments. North America is, yes, more or less the U.S. and Canada is a small market.

Philip Shen, Analyst

And so as you think about the anti-dumping and countervailing duty case on Southeast Asia, is it fair to assume that the mix should be the same for Q2, roughly maybe 25%? And then for Q3 and Q4, would you expect that to go down? Or do you expect an increase or still the same?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

I would expect it to be more or less 20%. As you know, our new annual module shipment guidance is 35 to 40 gigawatts, and in previous earnings calls, you asked me what our expectation of U.S. shipment for the year was. I believe Thomas and I answered this in the last earnings call, and we said around 10 gigawatts. That was in the last earnings call. So it's around 20%.

Philip Shen, Analyst

And then from the 45x standpoint, I'm sorry if I missed this, but did you guys share the benefit in Q1? Can you share, if not, what it was? And then what you expect in Q2 and Q3?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Well, the 45x, the IRA incentive is for U.S. module production. We are still ramping up the U.S. factory. So the Q1 shipment from the Mesquite factory is still small and insignificant compared with the total 6.3 gigawatts. From Q2 on, we'll hopefully see significant numbers. I would be more than happy to share this question again in three months when we report Q2.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.

Brian Lee, Analyst

I might have missed this, but could you give us a little bit of color behind the gross margin guidance for 2Q? I mean, you had really solid gross margin results in 1Q, and it sounded like battery storage was part of that. So why are gross margins being guided down in 2Q despite the higher mix of battery? And then you even mentioned some lower costs on the module side and you have higher revenues. So just wondering what's driving the lower gross margin view into 2Q?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

I believe our Q1 actual gross margin exceeded our guidance range, and on top of the guidance range. So I hope in Q2 we can also do better than we guide. When we provide guidance, we do it according to the current numbers, and it's difficult to be so accurate. I would say, I'm not going to say the 16% to 18% guidance is not much lower than the 19% actually realized. I will say that's the same range. Talking about the cost, indeed, the cost of solar modules and the materials, especially the silicon-related materials, went down again in the past few weeks. However, maybe in some of the markets, especially the low-end market, the price moved down as well. That's why we are cautious in modeling our gross margin for Q2. But as I said, I hope we can report a better number than what we guided.

Brian Lee, Analyst

So maybe some conservatism baked into that. If we drill down into that a bit more, can you give us a sense of what gross margin expectation you're embedding for the 2Q guidance for solar modules versus the gross margin you're embedding for battery storage just in the 2Q guidance? And then what do you expect for gross margin cadence for both various product sets within CSI Solar in the second half of the year?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yes. I will let Yan provide color on these details.

Yan Zhuang, President of CSI Solar

Right. So on the gross margin, we don't separate. We don't disclose the separation of the margin, but I can tell you in the previous calls we mentioned about 20% for utility-scale storage. On the module side, as Shawn mentioned, we try to be conservative because we are trying also to sell more in Q2. We're striving to grab more volume while achieving a healthy margin. So let's see if we can do better. Moving into the second half, we have a lot of uncertainties, but we know that it's not going to be worse than the first half. This is our belief. We're confident that we can continue to improve both cost and quality of our capacity. Furthermore, we have strong confidence in our e-STORAGE business, which is getting significantly stronger in the second half. We're also seeing, aside from the distribution channel in the U.S., that Europe and Japan are bouncing back on both pricing and demand, and that new markets are actually growing faster. So I think I hope that answered your question.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call over to management. Please continue.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thank you for joining us today. And also thank you for your continued support. If you have any questions or would like to set up a call, please contact our Investor Relations team. Take care, and have a nice day.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.