Earnings Call Transcript - CSIQ Q1 2025

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Canadian Solar's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Sheri, and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the call over to Wina Huang, Head of Investor Relations at Canadian Solar. Please go ahead.

Wina Huang, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone to Canadian Solar's first quarter 2025 conference call. Please note that today's conference call is accompanied with slides, which are available on Canadian Solar's Investor Relations website within the Events and Presentation section. Joining us today are Dr. Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO; Yan Zhuang, President of Canadian Solar subsidiary, CSI Solar; Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP and President of Canadian Solar subsidiary, Recurrent Energy; and Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO. All company executives will participate in the Q&A session after management's formal remarks. On this call, Shawn will go over some key messages for the quarter. Yan and Ismael will review business highlights for CSI Solar and Recurrent Energy, respectively, and Ismael will go through the financial results. Shawn will conclude the prepared remarks with the business outlook, after which we will have time for questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind listeners that management's prepared remarks today, as well as their answers to questions, will contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The company claims protection under the safe harbor for forward-looking statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ from management's current expectations. Any projections of the company's future performance represent management's estimates as of today. Canadian Solar assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future unless otherwise required by applicable law. A more detailed discussion of risks and uncertainties can be found in the company's annual report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Management's prepared remarks will be presented within the requirements of SEC Regulation G regarding generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Some financial information presented during the call will be provided on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. By disclosing certain non-GAAP information, management intends to provide investors with additional information to enable further analysis of the company's performance and underlying trends. Management uses non-GAAP measures to better assess operating performance and to establish operational goals. Non-GAAP information should not be viewed by investors as a substitute for data prepared in accordance with GAAP. And now, I would like to turn the call over to Canadian Solar's Chairman and CEO, Dr. Shawn Qu. Shawn, please go ahead.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Wina, and thank you all for joining our first quarter earnings call. Please turn to Slide 3. We began the year with a solid performance. Module shipments reached 6.9 gigawatts, slightly above our guidance. Revenue totaled $1.2 billion at the high end of our range, while gross margin of 11.7% modestly exceeded expectations. Profitability was affected by lower contributions from storage duties and tariffs, recurrence, ongoing transformation, and intra-company eliminations. This resulted in a net loss to shareholders of $34 million, or $0.69 per diluted share. The year 2025 will face many of the same challenges as 2024. While near-term headwinds remain, we are confident in the long-term opportunities and will continue to invest in them. Please turn to Slide 4. In the near term, we are addressing challenges that test us operationally and financially. Structural overcapacity across the solar supply chain has prolonged the market downturn, putting pressure on module pricing in most global markets. In addition to fierce competition, tariffs and shifting policies are raising costs and squeezing margins. To navigate these challenges, we are maintaining a profit-focused approach in our modules business, carefully managing volumes in less profitable markets, leveraging blended supply chain strategies, and offering bundled sales. Storage continues to be a key differentiator and profit driver. We are also diligently managing operating expenses and capital expenditures to support our bottom line and cash flow. Recently, we held an internal town hall meeting where I posed a question on behalf of the broader renewable energy sector. Does this industry still have a bright future? My answer is a resounding yes. Global electricity demand is growing at its fastest pace in years, and the rise of AI and other energy-intensive applications is widening the energy gap. Solar power, clean, affordable, and easy to deploy, can quickly meet this demand, especially when paired with storage. Canadian Solar has a proven track record of navigating policy shifts and market cycles, demonstrating our technological leadership and resilience in challenging times. While our operating environment continues to evolve, our constant is our commitment to R&D and leadership through innovation. Please turn to Slide 5. Over the past two months, we have announced several new products showcasing our leadership in both solar and energy storage technologies. In solar, we completed our first deployment of Canadian Solar's innovative Anti-Hail technology in Australia. This technology protects solar panels from severe weather, reflecting our dedication to delivering durable, high-performance solutions in even the most demanding environments. We also introduced our new N-type High Power TOPCon Gen 2 modules for utility scale and C&I systems. Built on our latest TOPCon Cell technology, these modules deliver a maximum power output of up to 660 watts and a conversion efficiency of up to 24.4%. By advancing our solar technology, we help customers lower their levelized cost of energy and improve project economics, reinforcing solar as one of the most cost-effective energy generation options. On the storage front, we achieved key milestones in both utility-scale and residential offerings. At Intersolar in Munich, we officially launched our SolBank 3.0 Plus, which enhances the lithium-ion phosphate battery cell manufacturing process and elevates its performance beyond the already successful SolBank 3.0. This solution offers a 25-year lifespan, near-zero degradation for the first four years, and up to 12,000 cycles at 95% round-trip efficiency. SolBank 3.0 Plus can significantly reduce our customers' operational costs by boosting overall lifetime energy throughput by over 13%. We are also proud that our residential energy storage solution, EP Cube, received the prestigious 2025 iF Design Award and Gold at the 2025 MUSE Design Awards. EP Cube combines an aesthetically pleasing design, important to homeowners, with functional advantages like easy installation and flexible capacity options. It continues to gain strong traction in global markets. With that, I will now turn the call over to Yan, who will provide more details on our CSI Solar business. Yan, please go ahead.

Yan Zhuang, President, CSI Solar

Thank you, Shawn. Please turn to Slide 6. In the first quarter of 2025, module shipments increased by 9.4% year-over-year to 6.9 gigawatts. We slightly exceeded our module shipment guidance, driven by incremental shipments to China as the industry rushed to complete installations ahead of new policies taking effect on June the 1st. Storage deliveries aligned with guidance, totaling 849 megawatt hours. Revenue reached $1.2 billion, and our gross margin declined by 640 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 13.4%, primarily due to lower energy storage shipments, while costs rose slightly, partly from non-refundable VAT changes in China effective last December and slightly higher manufacturing costs in Southeast Asia under our blended supply chain strategy. Average selling prices improved with a higher share of shipments to North America, with shipping costs declining sequentially due to softening global shipping rates and our rigorous management of operating expenses. We achieved operating income of $2 million. Now turning to e-STORAGE, please refer to Page 7. In the first quarter, we recognized revenue from 849 megawatt hours of shipped solutions. The softer performance was due to contract timing, and we expect a much stronger second quarter. Understandably, the ongoing US-China tariff negotiations remain top of mind for all stakeholders. While we cannot predict final outcomes, it is critical to recognize that these US energy storage projects, essentially for great resilience and energy dispatchability, took years of planning and significant investment. While clarity may take some time, the industry will work together to advance these projects. Like all market participants, we're navigating this uncertainty. For e-STORAGE, the US accounts for upwards of one-third of our energy storage business expected for this year. We are actively engaging with customers to mitigate risks and ensure smooth project execution. Notably, we are well-positioned with our global blended manufacturing strategy. Beyond our planned Kentucky storage facility, we have cell manufacturing capabilities and supplier partnerships that will allow us to offer customers flexible options starting in 2026. Demand for storage is stronger than ever, not just in the US, but globally. As of March 31, our record pipeline of 91 gigawatt hours, including $3.2 billion in contracted backlog, highlights the structural growth potential of energy storage worldwide. For example, we recently secured another major project in Latin America. Please turn to Slide 8. Colbun, a leading Chilean power generation company, selected e-STORAGE to supply a 912 megawatt-hour battery energy storage system for their Diego de Almagro Sur project in Chile's Atacama region. Like many in e-STORAGE's global track record now exceeding 11 gigawatt hours, this project highlights the value of energy storage. It strengthens grid reliability, optimizes renewable energy use, and ensures secure continuous power for industrial demand. Now let me hand the call over to Ismael, who will provide an overview of Recurrent Energy, Canadian Solar's global project development business. Ismael, please go ahead.

Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP, Recurrent Energy

Thank you, Yan. Please turn to Slide 9. In the first quarter, we generated $125 million in revenue. Gross margin was 18.6%, driven by project sales in Latin America. Due to the operating costs of our platform and the ongoing scaling of our IPP portfolio, we posted an operating loss of $12 million for the quarter. Regarding our business transformation, we will remain focused on execution. Currently, we have 1.2 gigawatt peak of solar and 1.4 gigawatt hours of energy storage projects under construction in Europe and the US. In January, our 35 megawatts peak Montalto project in Lazio, Italy, reached commercial operation. The PV project was contracted with Axpo with an attractively priced PPA. In addition, Montalto is also one of the first co-located PV and best projects in the Italian market. The best portion won a 15-year fixed capacity payment in a public auction and it is now under construction. In the US, we secured tax equity and project finance for Fort Duncan, a 200 megawatt hour Merchant Storage project in ERCOT, Texas. This is testament to the strength of our projects and financing teams as well as the strong support from our capital partners in enabling innovative solutions to drive impact. Construction for Fort Duncan is complete and under commissioning as we speak. In line with our global growth strategy, we secured a $450 million multicurrency credit facility, which includes an accordion feature that allows for potential upsizing. This corporate facility provides flexible and scalable financing with disbursements in US dollars, Euros, British Sterling, and Australian dollars, supporting our strategy to expand our IPP portfolio across diverse markets and geographies. Given the uncertain policy environment in the US, we are proactively implementing safeguards for all major IPP projects, including safe harboring equipment. While the long-term effects of tariffs remain to be seen, we expect very limited impact given recent progress in trade negotiations. Now, please turn to Slide 10 for an update on our pipeline. As of March 31st, 2025, we have secured interconnections for 9 gigawatts of solar and 16 gigawatt hours of storage globally, excluding projects already in operation. Our total project pipeline now stands at 27 gigawatts of solar and 76 gigawatt hours of energy storage. While we continue to expand our pipeline, the availability of easy-to-develop land with relatively cheap interconnections is becoming increasingly scarce. We are now prioritizing our core markets, the US and Europe, while in other regions we focus primarily on low-cost greenfield development. Now, let me hand the call over to Xinbo, who will go through our financial results in more detail. Xinbo, please go ahead.

Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO

Thank you, Ismael. Please turn to Slide 11. In the fourth quarter, we shipped 6.9 gigawatts of modules, slightly above guidance, and delivered 849 megawatt hours of energy storage solutions, in line with expectations. Revenue reached $1.2 billion, at the high end of our forecast. Gross margin of 11.7% exceeded guidance. The 260 basis point sequential decline was primarily due to lower energy storage shipments, while the 730 basis point year-over-year decline was driven by lower module ASP. Operating expenses decreased 4% year-over-year, driven by lower shipping costs. Last quarter's results included non-recurring impairment charges related to certain manufacturing and solar assets, making the year-over-year comparison more reflective of our ongoing operational performance. Net interest expense in the first quarter was $28 million compared to $9 million in the fourth quarter of 2024 and less than $1 million in the first quarter of 2024. The current quarter reflects a more normalized interest expense as prior comparative periods benefited from non-recurring interest income items. Net foreign exchange loss was $14 million, primarily due to dollar weakness and tariff-related pressures. Total net loss was $34 million, or $0.69 per diluted share. These results included a positive HLBV impact of $26 million or $0.38 per share from tax equity arrangements tied to certain US operating projects. Now, let's turn to cash flow and the balance sheet. Please turn to Slide 12. Net cash flow used in operating activities during the first quarter of 2025 was $264 million. This outflow was primarily driven by increased inventories and project assets. Total assets grew to $13.9 billion, driven by investments in project assets and solar power systems, positioning us for longer-term value creation. In the first quarter, we allocated $256 million in capital expenditures primarily toward US manufacturing initiatives. Our full year 2025 CapEx outlook remains unchanged at around $1.2 billion. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $2.0 billion and total debt of $5.7 billion, reflecting borrowings for capacity extension, working capital, and project and operational assets development. Now, let me turn the call back to Shawn, who will conclude with our guidance and business outlook. Shawn, please go ahead.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Xinbo. Please turn to Slide 13. For the second quarter of 2025, we anticipate CSI Solar's module shipment will range between 7.5 gigawatts to 8 gigawatts, including approximately 500 megawatts allocated to our own project. We also expect to deliver between 2.4 gigawatts and 2.6 gigawatts of energy storage solutions during this period. We project total second quarter revenue to be in the range of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion with gross margin expected to be between 23% and 25%. The anticipated margin improvement reflects strong energy storage shipment and includes a sizable margin contribution from the deconsolidation of a US project. This deconsolidation would release previously eliminated intracompany gross margin on CSI Solar components installed within the project. We continue to operate in an environment marked by global pricing volatility and evolving policy uncertainty, which limits our margin visibility. Based on our recent assessment of market and geopolitical development, we are updating our full year guidance as follows. For the full year of 2025, we update module volume guidance to 25 gigawatts to 30 gigawatts, including approximately 1 gigawatt to our own project. For energy storage shipments, we provide conditional guidance between 7 gigawatt-hours to 9 gigawatt-hours, including approximately 1 gigawatt-hour allocated to our own projects. The reduced module volumes primarily reflect our strategic reduction of exposure to less profitable markets, while the expected storage adjustments relate to US volumes affected by trade negotiations. As a result of these volume adjustments, we now expect full-year revenue to be between $6.1 billion and $7.1 billion. With that, I would now like to open the floor for questions. Operator?

Operator, Operator

Our first question is from Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer & Company. Please proceed.

Colin Rusch, Analyst

Thanks so much, guys. There's a lot of variables here, and Shawn, obviously, you've gone through a variety of policy shifts. One element that I'd love to get a bit more detail on is around the FEOC provisions that were released in the budget. I guess as you guys look at how that might evolve and get solidified in the budget, how does that impact your plans for US capacity investment? And how should we think about that, some of those elements impacting the variability in your guidance?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thanks, Colin. That's a good but challenging question. The new draft of the FEOC was only released two days ago by the House Ways and Means Committee, and it's just the initial draft. We anticipate that the final reconciliation bill will differ significantly from this draft. It's difficult to provide comments at this stage because we expect changes over the next two to three years. We will also share our opinions and suggestions with the relevant representatives, senators, and the administration. Therefore, I won't comment further now since it's only been two days since the draft was released.

Colin Rusch, Analyst

Perfect. Appreciate that answer. And then just shifting gears to the balance sheet, as you move through this year, we've seen some of the long-term debt increase, assuming that the bulk of that is around projects. How should we think about target ratios for you guys from a cash flow perspective and a leverage perspective?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yeah, Xinbo, do you want to answer this question?

Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO

From a recurrent perspective, we are still transitioning from a project developer to a partial Independent Power Producer, so we are continuing with our projects and facing some technical difficulties. Consequently, the leverage of Recurrent will increase slightly. For CSI Solar, we aim to maintain a similar leverage ratio to balance our growth and capital structure.

Colin Rusch, Analyst

Okay. Thanks, guys. I'll hop back in the queue.

Philip Shen, Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. In terms of the 2025 guidance, you lowered your module shipments by 15% and battery shipments, I think by 30%. But the revenue guide only came down 10%. Can you walk us through again, or just walk us through how revenue is able to be down only 10%? Do you expect pricing to go higher? Sorry if I missed some of your explanation. Thanks.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yeah, maybe, Wina, you are at the best position to answer this question.

Wina Huang, Head of Investor Relations

Hi, Philip. So as Shawn mentioned, we are maintaining a profit-first strategy, which means that the volumes we reduce for marginals is in less profitable markets, whereas for storage, this is our best estimate given the ongoing trade negotiations. So, this is still very fluid. As you can see, it's a pretty wide revenue guidance range.

Philip Shen, Analyst

Okay. Thank you, guys. And as it relates to the Draft House bill, I know Shawn, you talked about the FEOC rules and how that might need to be changed, or you might expect it to be changed ahead. They also have new rules as it relates to the ITC and PTC. If they were to pass, now they're looking to get placement service requirements instead of construction starts to secure the ITC and PTC. How would you expect that to impact your installations over the next two years? Do you think there would be modest, if limited, impacts on the recurrent business, or do you think there might be some challenges with that new language? Thank you.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

That’s an excellent question, Philip. The FEOC and the ITC schedule are both crucial, and we are closely monitoring the draft from the Ways and Means Committee. I anticipate that changes will occur as it is still quite distant from becoming the final law. However, the ITC holds significant importance for developers and manufacturers alike, including Canadian Solar, which operates in both capacities. If the ITC is scaled back, it will have a considerable impact. Our estimates suggest that one year of the ITC could mean several hundred million dollars for Canadian Solar alone, significantly affecting the entire industry. Therefore, it’s essential for us to provide our suggestions and insights. Historically, there have been discussions about phasing out the ITC multiple times over the last 10 to 15 years, since it was first introduced during President Bush's administration, and successive administrations have extended it. However, we have been preparing for the potential phase-out and have a history of safely harboring modules and other equipment, particularly through Recurrent, in anticipation of extensions. The ITC has proven to have considerable staying power. We will see how things unfold this time, but both the industry and Recurrent, along with Canadian Solar, are ready to navigate another round. Currently, solar and energy storage project prices are quite competitive, and electricity demand is high. Regardless of the ITC situation, I believe the industry will adapt and continue to expand.

Philip Shen, Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Shawn. Hey, I had a follow-up question on the Q2 margin guide, and you gave some detail around the strength being due to storage, and I think the deconsolidation of the US project. Can you share a little more color there? What is the expectation for storage margins these days? Historically, I think you guys have talked about 20-ish percent, but is it closer to mid-20s percent or even higher? And just provide a little bit more detail on the deconsolidation? Thanks.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Provide comments on the energy storage and margin, and then Xinbo, you may want to explain the deconsolidation of the solar project. Yan?

Yan Zhuang, President, CSI Solar

On the storage side, the Q2 storage shipment occurred in Q1, which was before the tariff war. Margin-wise, I can say it's about 20%, which is quite healthy. Additionally, the volume for Q2 is expected to be much higher. The guidance is 2.6 gigawatt hours to 2.8 gigawatt hours, compared to 2.4 gigawatt hours to 2.6 gigawatt hours, indicating a significant increase over Q1.

Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO

Yeah. Let me comment on the deconsolidation. We have a storage project with a fixed-rate toll agreement covering about 80% of the project lifetime. According to accounting standards, when the projects reach COD, the majority of the risks and controls are transferred to the counterpart. So, according to accounting standards, we need to deconsolidate this project from our balance sheet and release the intercompany profit eliminated in earlier quarters, and it's a one-time event contributing about 5% to 6% of gross margin in the next quarter.

Philip Shen, Analyst

Thank you. What kind of gross margins can we expect in Q3 and Q4 due to this strength?

Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO

No, we are not guiding this.

Philip Shen, Analyst

Okay, appreciate it. Thank you, guys. I'll pass it on.

Tyler Bisset, Analyst

Hey guys, this is Tyler Bisset for Brian. Thanks for taking our questions. You guys lowered storage volume expectations due to the trade negotiations. And can you provide some details on what sort of tariff assumptions are embedded in your guidance? I know there are some recent negotiations. Just want to confirm what's embedded there. And, similarly, you mentioned offering some flexible sourcing capabilities. So, can you provide some more details on kind of the pricing differentials of leveraging different sources versus your existing products?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yeah. Yan, do you want to handle this question, the energy storage guidance, new guidance.

Yan Zhuang, President, CSI Solar

Sure. I believe the range of 7 gigawatt hours to 9 gigawatt hours already accounts for various uncertainties. This includes the exemption for spending days and other uncertainties that may arise. Therefore, it could be as low as 7 gigawatt hours or as high as 9 gigawatt hours. That's the assumption we've made.

Tyler Bisset, Analyst

And any sort of details on, just like pricing differential from different sourcing capabilities?

Yan Zhuang, President, CSI Solar

Okay. And actually, for the storage contracts, we all have a change of law protection. Some of them are like capped pricing and the others with a shared on tariff. So, even with the different uncertainties, I think the 7 gigawatt hours to 9 gigawatt hours we continue to have a healthy margin.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Brian, I want to add that the sourcing flexibility will only benefit us in 2026. We're starting to see our suppliers build up their capacities outside of China, but most of that advantage will not take effect until 2026. In 2025, we still need to fulfill all our storage projects from China, which does have an impact due to tariffs. Consequently, some of our customers have requested to delay their project deliveries until next year when the non-China battery cell options are ready. This contributes significantly to the changes in our guidance.

Tyler Bisset, Analyst

Super helpful color. Appreciate that. And then you discussed some pull forward of demand in China, given some policy changes there. Do you have any sort of expectation for shipment growth next year in China?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yan, do you want to answer this question? The shipment growth in China.

Yan Zhuang, President, CSI Solar

We're currently waiting for policy clarification at the provincial level, which is crucial for our next steps. As a result, our investment decisions in China are largely on hold. We believe there will be a few months of adjustment in the market, but once we receive the necessary policy details, we expect the situation will not be dire. Demand should gradually increase, although we anticipate a weaker second half. Looking ahead to next year, uncertainty remains, but we believe there will be strong demand for storage. Historically, much of the storage demand in China was driven by mandatory solar regulations. With the changes from Policy 133, we expect to see a more open trading market that will create real demand for storage. Therefore, we are optimistic about healthy growth in high-quality storage projects next year.

Tyler Bisset, Analyst

Perfect. Really appreciate the color. Thank you.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thank you.

Alan Lau, Analyst

Thank you for addressing my question. I have a follow-up regarding the 6% margin contribution from the capitalization of this project. I would like to clarify whether there is a fixed-rate agreement in place for the project's duration, as accounting standards require us to recognize the profit. Is this a one-time impact on Q2, or will it amortize over the quarter?

Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO

From an accounting perspective, yeah, it's a one-off impact on Q2 this year.

Alan Lau, Analyst

Okay, thank you. That's clear. So, Q3 onwards unless you have other projects that are deconsolidated otherwise this is only one of Q2, right?

Xinbo Zhu, Senior VP and CFO

Correct.

Alan Lau, Analyst

Thank you. And then next question is a follow-up on US policies because there's a lot of prevalence in the past one week. Would like to check on your view because the language is actually saying that at least for the next two years, if a FEOC is not having the majority stake, then we'll still be able to get 45x. Just to reconfirm our company, CSIQ, is actually Canadian-owned, and also per your understanding, it's not an FEOC, or what do you think about it?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Canadian Solar is Canadian-owned and publicly traded on NASDAQ, attracting shareholders from the US market. The company owns approximately 65% of CSI Solar, which is listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and operates under Chinese corporate law. CSI Solar has invested in several facilities in the US, including a modular factory in Mesquite, a cell factory in Jeffersonville, Indiana, and a storage factory in Shelbyville, Kentucky. If the language in the new draft remains unchanged, all three facilities will be affected, necessitating a change in the ownership structure to comply with the new laws. However, since CSIQ, a Canadian company, still holds 65% and is the controlling shareholder of CSI Solar, it may be simpler for us to adjust the structure and possibly involve third-party investors to ensure compliance with the new rules. As I mentioned in response to a previous question, the draft released by the House Ways and Means Committee two days ago is merely the first version, and we anticipate numerous revisions before it becomes law. There is uncertainty about how quickly the reconciliation process will occur, with some predicting July for the August recess and others suggesting September. We are not experts in legislative processes, but we are actively providing our feedback through appropriate channels. I hope that the final legislation will take all of this into account and ultimately facilitate a return of manufacturing to the US.

Alan Lau, Analyst

Thank you. The next question is regarding a recent news article mentioning that CSI Solar, a division of Canadian Solar, has a commitment in Ethiopia. Could you share your plans there concerning modules or if there are any sales plans?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yeah, that's not true. Our business development people have traveled around the world. So they travel to Ethiopia, but we haven't made any committed decision to any activities in Ethiopia yet.

Alan Lau, Analyst

I see. So there's some probably due diligence, but not up to the stage of any commitment yet?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

We are developing and exploring options, but we have not committed to anything yet.

Alan Lau, Analyst

I understand. My final question is regarding the guidance. I would like to know if the guidance has come down. What is the main difference compared to last time? Is it primarily related to US volume?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yan, should you answer this question?

Yan Zhuang, President, CSI Solar

Okay. So, the US annual volume stays, so we don't have a new update on that.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

The shipment to the US is pretty much still what we guided before, and this volume reduction reflects the reduction of unprofitable sales to other markets.

Praneeth Satish, Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Just going back to the FEOC draft legislation, I guess the question here is on your Indiana, Kentucky facilities. Does it make sense to put those on pause? You maintained your CapEx guidance of $1.2 billion, but until you get final clarity on the rules, is there a chance that maybe some of that CapEx comes down, you shift the projects out, or are you confident that the draft language will change with the future revisions? Or you see a path here that even if it doesn't change through ownership changes bringing in third-party investors that you can comply with the rules?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

The factory in Jeffersonville, Indiana is currently under construction, including the building and equipment. We have shipped most of the Phase 1 equipment, which accounts for about 2 gigawatts of solar cell capacity. This equipment is currently stored in a warehouse in Indiana, waiting for the building to be finished. We have proposed a plan to expand the facility's capacity to 5 gigawatts, dividing this into Phase 1 and Phase 2. We are being cautious with our spending. At this time, the Phase 1 equipment is nearly in place, and we expect to complete Phase 1. The decision on Phase 2 will likely be made by summer or shortly thereafter, contingent on the outcome of the budget reconciliation process. We are not significantly increasing our spending in Jeffersonville beyond what has already been committed. The timeline for our project aligns with the budget reconciliation timeline, and we anticipate reasonable final language regarding the budget.

Praneeth Satish, Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe one more on the Recurrent business here. So, at least in the US PPA prices are going up and we're seeing on the gas side for CCGT costs and prices are going up a lot with data center demand. So is that giving you more headroom on the solar and storage side to increase PPA prices and absorb a lot of the cost increases that we're seeing from all the trade and policy uncertainty? And then are you any more inclined for long-term ownership of assets versus monetization in the current environment?

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Yeah, Ismael, this is a question for you.

Ismael Guerrero, Corporate VP, Recurrent Energy

Thank you, Shawn, thanks for the question. We see the market in a similar way. Yes, we do. We are experiencing the same things you are referring to. In general, with the capital we have, we have a limited capability to hold a certain amount of projects. And we are continuously assessing every time a project reaches the RTB status, whether we should sell it or we should keep it in operation. So, how many projects we keep in operation is a decision taken based on the amount of money we have available and the status of the project, and which are better to hold and better to sell. But the market remains very attractive. This is what we are seeing both in the US and Europe.

Praneeth Satish, Analyst

Got it. Okay, thank you.

Operator, Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

Shawn Qu, Chairman and CEO

Thank you. And thank you for joining us today for your continued support. If you have any questions or would like to set up a call, please contact our investor relations team. And take care and have a great day.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And thank you for your participation.