8-K
Contango Silver & Gold Inc. (CTGO)
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
________________
FORM 8-K
CURRENT REPORT
PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): October 31, 2023
CONTANGO ORE, INC.
(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)
| Delaware<br><br> <br>(State<br> or other jurisdiction of<br><br> <br>incorporation<br><br><br><br><br> or organization) | 001-35770<br><br> <br>(Commission<br><br> <br>File<br> Number) | 27-3431051<br><br> <br>(I.R.S.<br> Employer<br><br> <br>Identification<br><br><br><br><br> No.) |
|---|---|---|
| 3700 Buffalo Speedway,<br> Suite 925<br><br> <br>Houston, Texas<br><br> <br>(Address<br><br><br><br><br> of principal executive offices) | 77098<br><br> <br>(Zip Code) | |
| Registrant’s Telephone Number, including area code: (713) 877-1311 | ||
| --- |
Not Applicable
(Former name, former address and former fiscal year, if changed since last report)
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2.):
☐ Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
☐ Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
☐ Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
| Title of each class | Trading Symbol(s) | Name of each exchange on which registered |
|---|---|---|
| Common Stock, Par Value $0.01 per share | CTGO | NYSE American |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§ 230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§ 240.12b-2 of this chapter).
Emerging growth company ☐
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐
| Item 7.01. | Regulation FD Disclosure. |
|---|
On October 31, 2023, the Company made available a new corporate presentation. A copy of this presentation titled “Building Alaska’s Next Gold Mines” is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is available on the Company’s website at www.contangoore.com.
The Company’s presentation furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report contains non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a numerical measure of a company’s performance, financial position, or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures are not included in the furnished presentation due to the inherent difficulty and impracticality of quantifying certain amounts that would be required to calculate the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. In addition, certain of the non-GAAP financial measures have been prepared by Kinross Gold Corporation, the Company’s partner in, and the manager of, Peak Gold, LLC, a joint venture company in which the Company currently holds a 30% interest, and are based on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) accounting standards and detailed information to which the Company has not had access to at this time. As a result, the Company is unable to quantify certain amounts that would be required to be included in the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure without unreasonable efforts.
The information included herein and in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Many of the statements included or incorporated in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the furnished exhibit constitutes “forward-looking statements.” In particular, they include statements relating to future actions, strategies, future operating and financial performance, ability to realize the anticipated benefits of the transactions with an affiliate of Kinross Gold Corporation and the Company’s future financial results. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations and projections about future events. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future operating and financial performance or results and involve substantial risks and uncertainties that cannot be predicted or quantified, and, consequently, the actual performance of the Company may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, factors described from time to time in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (including the sections entitled “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” contained therein).
| Item 9.01. | Financial Statements and<br> Exhibits. |
|---|
(d) Exhibits.
| Exhibit No. | Description of Exhibit |
|---|---|
| 99.1 | Building Alaska’s Next Gold Mines,<br> dated October 31, 2023. |
| 104 | Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document). |
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.
| CONTANGO ORE, INC. |
|---|
| By: /s/ Leah Gaines |
| Leah Gaines |
| Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Chief Accounting<br><br> <br>Officer, Treasurer and Secretary |
Dated: October 31, 2023
| Exhibit 99.1 |
|---|
NYSE-A: CTGO BUILDING ALASKA’S NEXT GOLD MINES November 2023 Exhibit 99.1
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT The Feasibility Study (“FS”) referenced herein that relates to Peak Gold, LLC (“Peak Gold”), was prepared by Kinross Gold Corporation (“Kinross”), which controls the Manager of Peak Gold and holds 70% of its outstanding membership interests, in accordance with Canadian National Instrument 43-101 (NI 43-101). Contango Ore, Inc. (“CORE” or “Contango”) owns the remaining 30% membership interest in Peak Gold, and must rely on Kinross and its affiliates for the FS and related information. Further, CORE is not subject to regulation by Canadian regulatory authorities and no Canadian regulatory authority has reviewed the FS or passed upon its accuracy or compliance with NI 43-101. The terms “mineral resource”, “measured mineral resource”, “indicated mineral resource” and “inferred mineral resource” as used in the resource estimate, the FS and this presentation are Canadian mining terms as defined in accordance with NI 43-101. In the United States, mining disclosure is reported under sub-part 1300 of Regulation S-K (“S-K 1300”). Under S-K 1300, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) recognizes estimates of “Measured Mineral Resources”, “Indicated Mineral Resources” and “Inferred Mineral Resources”. In addition, the definitions of “Proven Mineral Reserves” and “Probable Mineral Reserves” are substantially similar to international standards. Under S-K 1300, an SEC registrant with material mining operations must disclose specified information in its SEC filings concerning mineral resources, in addition to mineral reserves, which have been determined on one or more of its properties. Such mineral resources and reserves are supported by a technical report summary (the “S-K 1300 Report”), which is dated and signed by a qualified person or persons, and identifies and summarizes the information reviewed and conclusions reached by each qualified person about the SEC registrant’s mineral resources or mineral reserves determined to be on each material property. CORE prepared an S-K 1300 Report, dated May 12, 2023, based on the FS, that presented mineral resource estimates and mineral reserve estimates for the Manh Choh project as of December 31, 2022 (the "Manh Choh S-K 1300 Report"). CORE prepared an additional S-K 1300 Report, dated May 26, 2023, based on historical and recent drill hole assay information, that presented mineral resource estimates for the Lucky Shot project as of May 26, 2023 (the "Lucky Shot S-K 1300 Report"). Investors are cautioned that while the S-K 1300 definitions are “substantially similar” to the NI 43-101 definitions, there are differences between the two. Accordingly, there is no assurance any mineral reserve or mineral resource estimates that Peak Gold may report as “probable mineral reserves”, “measured mineral resources”, “indicated mineral resources” and “inferred mineral resources” under NI 43-101 would be the same had CORE prepared the mineral reserve or mineral resource estimates under S-K 1300. Further, U.S. investors are also cautioned that while the SEC recognizes “measured mineral resources”, “indicated mineral resources” and “inferred mineral resources” under S-K 1300, investors should not assume that any part or all of the mineralization in these categories will ever be converted into a higher category of mineral resources or into mineral reserves. Mineralization that has been characterized as resources has a greater degree of uncertainty as to its existence and feasibility than mineralization that has been characterized as reserves. Accordingly, investors are cautioned not to assume that any measured mineral resources, indicated mineral resources or inferred mineral resources that CORE reports are or will be economically or legally mineable. For more detail regarding the FS, please see CORE's press release dated May 26, 2023: https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-announces-completion-of-s-k-1300-technical-report-summary-for-its-manh-choh-project-in-alaska. The information contained in, or otherwise accessible through, the links are not part of, and are not incorporated by reference into this investor presentation. To view a copy of the Manh Choh S-K 1300 Report, see: https://assets.website-files.com/5fc5d36fd44fd675102e4420/6470afdaf94d2ac9f93d93e0_SIMS%20Contango%20Manh%20Choh%20Project%20S-K%201300%20TRS%20FINAL%2020230524%20(1)-compressed.pdf . The information contained in, or otherwise accessible through, the links are not part of, and are not incorporated by reference into this investor presentation. To view a copy of the Lucky Shot S-K 1300 Report, see: https://assets.website-files.com/5fc5d36fd44fd675102e4420/6487270414e64406df8280bb_Contango%20Lucky%20Shot%20Project%20S-K%201300%20TRS%202023-05-26.pdf. The information contained in, or otherwise accessible through, the links are not part of, and are not incorporated by reference into this investor presentation.
Alaska considered one of the top 10 jurisdictions in the world for mining investments1 Manh Choh Mine - One of the world’s highest grade open pit gold mines (8 g/t expected average grade) We believe the following factors significantly de-risk the Manh Choh project: Agreement in place with Tetlin Alaska Native Tribe Fully Permitted - All State and Federal permits received Proven operator for Project - Kinross Turn-key operation, major contracts in place Currently Mining and Stockpiling ore at Manh Choh mine site Project financing arrangements in place ING/Macquarie Banks - US$70 M Fully funded to production Strong cash flow per share (CFPS) expected to start in 2024 Exploration upside 1. See Fraser Institute’s annual survey of mining companies for 2021 Investment Highlights 3
Lucky Shot Mine – Initial Resource 100% owned Exploring historic high-grade gold mine Permitted for mining 106,000 Oz Indicated Resource grading 14.5 g/t Au Reserves/Resources Exploration Stage Fort Knox Mill Developing Alaska’s Next Gold Mines 4 Manh Choh Mine – Mining and Stockpiling Ore Underway Partnership with Kinross (70%) and Contango (30%) Using existing Fort Knox milling facilities owned by Kinross Reduced execution risk Partnership with the Alaska Native Tetlin Tribe (Royalty) Alaska’s Golden Triangle
Institutional Retail / Others Directors & Officers (Insiders) TRADING - NYSE AMERICAN: CTGO1 90-Day Avg. Daily Volume 57,773 shares per day 52-week range US$17.01 - $33.67 Market Cap $166 M *Russell 3000 Inclusion - June 26, 2023 CAPITAL STRUCTURE2 Issued & Outstanding 9.4 M Warrants 0.4 M Options 0.1 M Fully Diluted 9.9 M FINANCIAL POSITION2 Cash $18.0 M Debt (gross) $40.0 M ANALYST COVERAGE Cantor Fitzgerald Mike Kozak Roth Capital Partners Mike Niehuser Fundamental Research Corp. Nina Rose Coderis Maxim Group Tate Sullivan Freedom Capital Dilrukh Sharipov TOP SHAREHOLDERS Hexagon Asset Management Alaska Future Fund Tocqueville Asset Management Insiders GAMCO Investors 1. Approximate amounts reported as of October 10, 2023 2. Approximate amounts estimated as of September 30, 2023 Capital Structure 5
Feasibility in 2022Construction in 2023 Production in 2024Explore 2,800km2 area Development Plan - Mine Manh Choh gold ore and then truck and process the ore at Kinross’ Fort Knox Milling complex Reduces execution risk to produce gold and silver over 4.5 year mine-life starting second half of 2024 Kinross JV expenses since inception: >$120 million Road construction continued through Winter 2022-23 – Ahead of schedule and on budget $43 million Peak Gold H1 2023 budget completed $122 million H2 2023 Peak Gold budget underway – Construction nearing completion and mining at Manh Choh site has commenced ALL MINE OPERATING PERMITS RECEIVED MINING UNDERWAY CONSTRUCTION NEAR COMPLETION NEAR-TERM PRODUCTION POTENTIAL & EXPLORATION UPSIDE Manh Choh Gold Project 6
Manh Choh Update – Groundbreaking Ceremony Mining Operations Initiated 7
Manh Choh Update – Mining Underway 8
Kiewit selected as mining contractor Founded in 1884, Kiewit is one of the largest engineering, construction and mining companies in North America Mining and Road Haul Contractors Engaged 9 Contracted for Ore Haul Alaska Business for 35 Years
10 10 Completed Completed Mill Modifications at Fort Knox
Using existing infrastructure at Fort Knox, Peak Gold is planning on a H2 2024 start date Production estimate of 914,000 GEO over a 4.5-years equating to roughly 225,000 gold equivalent ounces (“GEO”) per annum (30% to Contango Ore = +274,000 GEO or 67,500 GEO/Yr)1 Average processed grades expected to be ~8 g/t Au Capital Costs Initial $189 million (including $14M Contingency) for Peak Gold – Contango’s share: $56.8 million $26 million Capitalized Strip – Contango’s share: $7.8 million Total Capital Costs to Contango = $64.6 million based on the Manh Choh SK 1300 Report1 Operating Costs - Contango AISC = $1,116/GEO1 Model Assumptions per Contango Manh Choh SK 1300 Report1 1 See Contango’s SK1300 Manh Choh Technical Report Press Release dated May 26, 2023; Initial capex reflects the Kinross feasibility study reported in “Q2 Corporate Update ” Press Release and Corporate Presentation dated July 26 and 27, 2022; The optimization for the mineral reserve estimate assumed a $1,300 per ounce gold price; the $189 million estimate reflects remaining funds to be expended between 2022 and 2024; there will be additional capital required at Fort Knox to accommodate Manh Choh ore; and is a Toll Milling charge to the Peak Gold JV; "All-in sustaining cost (AISC) per equivalent ounce sold“ is a non-GAAP ratio. “GEO” refers to Gold Equivalent Ounces. See: https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-announces-completion-of-s-k-1300-technical-report-summary-for-its-manh-choh-project-in-Alaska. The information contained in, or otherwise accessible through, the links are not part of, and are not incorporated by reference into this investor presentation. he The Manh Choh Gold Project: Anticipated Economics 11
1 See Contango’s SK1300 Manh Choh Technical Report Press Release dated May 26, 2023. See: https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-announces-completion-of-s-k-1300-technical-report-summary-for-its-manh-choh-project-in-Alaska. The information contained in, or otherwise accessible through, the link is not part of, and is not incorporated by reference into this investor presentation. Manh Choh Grade Comparsion1 12 One of the Highest-Grade Open Pit Gold Mines in the World
Illustrative Economics at Select Gold Prices1 At gold spot price ($1,920/Ounce) as of August 28, 2023 $129 M+ of annual revenue $54 M+ of annual cash flow 1 See Contango’s SK1300 Manh Choh Technical Report Press Release dated May 26, 2023; Initial capex reflects the Kinross feasibility study reported in “Q2 Corporate Update ” Press Release and Corporate Presentation dated July 26 and 27, 2022; The optimization for the mineral reserve estimate assumed a $1,300 per ounce gold price; the $189 million estimate reflects remaining funds to be expended between 2022 and 2024; there will be additional capital required at Fort Knox to accommodate Manh Choh ore; and is a Toll Milling charge to the Peak Gold JV; "All-in sustaining cost (AISC) per equivalent ounce sold“ is a non-GAAP ratio. “GEO” refers to Gold Equivalent Ounces. See: https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-announces-completion-of-s-k-1300-technical-report-summary-for-its-manh-choh-project-in-Alaska. The information contained in, or otherwise accessible through, the link is not part of, and is not incorporated by reference into this investor presentation. Manh Choh Illustrative Economics 13
1 See Contango’s SK1300 Manh Choh Technical Report Press Release dated May 26, 2023; Initial capex reflects the Kinross feasibility study reported in “Q2 Corporate Update ” Press Release and Corporate Presentation dated July 26 and 27, 2022; The optimization for the mineral reserve estimate assumed a $1,300 per ounce gold price; the $189 million estimate reflects remaining funds to be expended between 2022 and 2024; there will be additional capital required at Fort Knox to accommodate Manh Choh ore; and is a Toll Milling charge to the Peak Gold JV; "All-in sustaining cost (AISC) per equivalent ounce sold“ is a non-GAAP ratio. “GEO” refers to Gold Equivalent Ounces. See: https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-announces-completion-of-s-k-1300-technical-report-summary-for-its-manh-choh-project-in-Alaska. The information contained in, or otherwise accessible through, the link is not part of, and is not incorporated by reference into this investor presentation. Manh Choh Cashflow Per Share1 14 Strong Projected Cash Flow per Share
Main MC North MC $3 Million Exploration Program Budgeted for 2023 Continued exploration for new resources in Chief Danny area Further evaluation of 685,000 acre Manh Choh project Additional regional stream sediment sampling Geologic mapping Geophysical surveys including detailed ground gravity survey Manh Choh Project and Surrounding Targets 15
DRILLING SCOPING STUDY PERMITTING & FEASIBILITY PRODUCTION DETAILED DESIGN PROCUREMENT CONSTRUCTION Approximately $19 M program in 2021 which included resource in-fill, hydrology, geotechnical, metallurgical engineering; environment and community outreach Tetlin Tribe indicates their support for the project development plan; Continued community engagement Approximately $40 M program in 2022 Kinross Feasibility Study completed and permitting activities are advancing well Wetlands Dredge and Fill (404) Permit from USACE Other permits issued by State of Alaska “Early Works” construction decision announced in July 2022 Road construction/mill modification/camp Production expected to commence in H2 2024 Image used with permission from Kinross Community Engagement Mine Site construction decision with receipt of Mine Operating Plan approved in May 2023 With ~$2 M exploration drilling to potentially expand the mine life Timeline to Production 16
1 Hart, C.J.R., 2005. Mid-Cretaceous Magmatic Evolution and Intrusion-related Metallogeny of the Tintina Gold Province, Yukon and Alaska. Unpublished PhD thesis, University of Western Australia, 198 p. 1 Early-Stage Exploration Projects (100% owned) Eagle-Hona Triple Z Shamrock Current focus on Lucky Shot mine Tintina Gold Belt1: >100 Million Ounce Gold Endowment 17
Coleman Adit Lucky Shot “500” Adit War Baby Adit Looking NNE Enserch Tunnel Lucky Shot Vein 15.6 g/t Au = ½ Oz/ton Au1 +1 mile (1.6 km) strike length and open along strike and down dip See https://www.contangoore.com/press-release/contango-ore-issues-initial-s-k-1300-resource-technical-report-summary-for-the-lucky-shot-project-alaska-indicated-grades-average-15-g-t Lucky Shot Vein: Overview 18 Lucky Shot Mine reported 252,000 ozs from 169,000 tons of free-milling ore indicating an average head grade of 40 g/t Au (1.28 oz/ton) with additional production from the Coleman and War Baby mines1.
Lucky Shot Vein: Ariel View 19 1 The historical production information presented is based upon reports file by the US Geological Survey from information provided by prior owners and operators of the mines. The Company has not undertaken any independent work to verify or confirm the previously reported information ( see Harlan, et al., 2017 and Stoll, 1997). The historical information may not be representative of future results of the Company’s activities,
Fully Permitted Active Mine Site Safety First Approach Zero LTIs Lucky Shot: Fully Permitted Mine Site - Safety First 20
Classification Tonnes Au Grade (g/t) Au Ounces Measured - - - Indicated 190,092 15.6 95,036 TOTAL 190,092 15.6 95,036 Inferred 74,265 9.9 23,642 Classification Tonnes Au Grade Au Ounces (g/t) Measured - - - Indicated 36,871 8.9 10,584 TOTAL 36,871 8.9 10,584 Inferred 7,793 5.9 1,468 Coleman Lucky Shot War Baby Murphy Note 1: Measured, Indicated and Inferred mineral resource classification are assigned according to CIM Definition Standards. Mineral resources, which are not mineral reserves, do not demonstrate economic viability and there is no guarantee that mineral resources will be converted to mineral reserves. This mineral resource estimate was prepared by Sims Resources LLC based on data and information available and has an effective date of May 26, 2023. The Measured, Indicated and Inferred mineral resources are reported using the following parameters: undiluted gold grades; long term gold price of $US1,600 per ounce; reported as contained within a 3.0 g/t Gold underground shapes and applying a 3.0 meter minimum width at a 4.3 g/t gold cutoff grade (“COG”). Coleman and Lucky Shot Resources Tables1 Please see S-K 1300 Technical Report Summary on the Lucky Shot Project Alaska, USA Link: https://www.contangoore.com/investors/overview Lucky Shot Segment of Lucky Shot Vein Coleman Segment of Lucky Shot Vein Combined Segments of Lucky Shot Vein Resources Classification Tonnes Au Grade Au Ounces (g/t) Measured - - - Indicated 226,963 14.5 105,620 TOTAL 226,963 14.5 105,620 Inferred 82,058 9.5 25,110 Lucky Shot Vein: Oblique View – Looking West 21
? Coleman Segment of Lucky Shot Vein: Infill and Expand Resource 22 Objectives: Upgrade 100,000 Oz Indicated Resource to Measured category Increase M&I Resource to 150,000 oz gold Evaluate mine optimization from Enserch tunnel Assess continued exploration opportunities Classification Tonnes Au Grade (g/t) Au Ounces Measured - - - Indicated 190,092 15.6 95,036 TOTAL 190,092 15.6 95,036 Inferred 74,265 9.9 23,642 Currently: Coleman Segment of Lucky Shot Vein ?
Oblique View of Lucky Shot Segment – Looking NE Lucky Shot Vein: Exploration Open Along Strike and Down Dip 23 Classification Tonnes Au Grade Au Ounces (g/t) Measured - - - Indicated 36,871 8.9 10,584 TOTAL 36,871 8.9 10,584 Inferred 7,793 5.9 1,468 Lucky Shot Segment of Lucky Shot Vein
13,000 meter in-fill drill program for 15-20 meter spacing Looking Southwest Lucky Shot Vein: Exploration Drill Plan 24 Objective: Outline 400,000 ounces of gold resource Enserch Tunnel
THANK YOU 25 Corporate Inquires:info@contangoore.com+1-778-386-6227www.contangoore.com Twitter: @orecontangoLinkedIn: Contango OREInstagram: ContangoOREFacebook: Contango ORE
This presentation contains forward looking estimates of all-in sustaining cost (“AISC”), resources and EBITDA, which are financial measures not determined in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). We cannot provide a reconciliation of estimated AISC, resources and EBITDA to estimated costs of goods sold, assets and net income, which are the GAAP financial measures most directly comparable to such non-GAAP measures, without unreasonable efforts due to the inherent difficulty and impracticality of quantifying certain amounts that would be required to calculate projected AISC, resources and EBITDA. In addition, the estimates of AISC, resources and EBITDA have been prepared by Kinross and are based on IFRS accounting standards and detailed information that the Company does not have access to at this time. These amounts that would require unreasonable effort to quantify could be significant, such that the amount of projected GAAP cost of goods sold, assets and net income would vary substantially from the amount of projected AISC, resources and EBITDA. NON-GAAP RECONCILIATION DISCLAIMER 26
Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold* • As the supply of government bonds has continued to increase over the past year, the price of bonds has declined. • Meanwhile the supply of gold has been stable, and the price of gold has risen. • The forecast in the coming years is for a substantial increase in the supply of bonds and a likely decrease in the supply of gold. 27 * I would like to thank and acknowledge the work of Chris Mancini from Gabelli Group for this simple but thoughtful analysis
The supply of new government bonds into the market has increased substantially over the past few years. 28 Chart of the total amount of U.S. government debt outstanding 2018 through 2023 Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold
As bond supply has flooded the market over the past year, the price of bonds has declined. 29 Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold Chart shows total government debt outstanding relative to the price of the iShares 20 Year Plus Treasury ETF (TLT)
30 Source: World Gold Council Source: World Gold Council As gold supply has remained stable, the price of gold has been relatively stable. The chart below shows gold supply relative to the gold price over the past twelve quarters. The supply of gold meanwhile, has been stable over the past few years Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold
Over the next 10 years at today’s gold price, supply of gold will likely decline. Only a substantial increase in the price of gold will adequately incentivize producers to build enough new mines to replace mine depletion. The supply of bonds however, is projected to increase substantially over the next 30 years as government deficits rise. 31 While the supply of bonds in the market will likely continue to increase relentlessly, the supply of gold will decline. Law of Supply and Demand: If supply actually does matter, then gold will likely be a much better savings instrument than bonds. Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold Chart from the Congressional Budget Office showing the projected public debt outstanding as a percentage of GDP
For over 10 years gold has shown a close inverse correlation with real interest rates – No longer! “Obviously, this isn’t a normal market environment!”* 32 Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold Chart shows gold price versus inversed 10 year real interest rates * Brien Lundin
When’s the last time that happened?….the 1970s….when gold went from $35 to $800/oz 33 Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold Chart shows Gold Price un-adjusted US Dollars with Recessions Gold Price $20.78 to $35/oz The 1970s ~40% ~23X at peak after 10 year period Gold Price “stable” between $300 to $400 between 1981 to 2000 (~10X from before move) 1933
When’s the last time that happened?….the 1970s….when gold went from $35 to $800/oz 34 Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold Chart shows Gold Price inflation adjusted US Dollars with Recessions Gold Price $20.78 to $35/oz The 1970s Between 1980 and 2000 gold lost out on an inflation adjusted basis and shorting gold was popular! The average inflation rate of the USD between 1980 and 2000 was 4.23% per year. The cumulative price increase of the dollar over this time was 108.98%. 1933
When’s the last time that happened?….the 1970s….when gold went from $35 to $800/oz 35 Supply and Demand: US Bonds and Gold Chart shows gold price un-adjusted US dollars in log scale with recessions Gold Price $20.78 to $35/oz Gold Price $20.78 to $35/oz The 1970s Remember: This is Log Scale! And took 10 years to play out! 1933