Earnings Call Transcript - CVX Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. Welcome to Chevron's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference call over to the Head of Investor Relations of Chevron Corporation, Mr. Jake Spiering. Please go ahead.

Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Katie. Welcome to Chevron's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. I'm Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations. On the call with me today is our Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth; and our Vice President and CFO, Eimear Bonner. We will refer to the slides and prepared remarks that are available on Chevron's website. Before we begin, please be reminded that this presentation contains estimates, projections and other forward-looking statements. A reconciliation of non-GAAP measures can be found in the appendix to this presentation. Please review the cautionary statement and additional information presented on Slide 2. Now I'll turn it over to Mike.

Michael Wirth, CEO

Okay. Thanks, Jake. In the third quarter, Chevron delivered record production and strong cash generation, supporting sustained shareholder distributions. The period was marked by several key milestones as we execute our plan for resilient and industry-leading free cash flow growth. Worldwide production exceeded 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by strong growth and high reliability across the upstream. Hess integration is on track. Synergies are being realized and asset performance has exceeded expectations. The Ballymore tieback project reached design capacity ahead of schedule, taking us another step closer to delivering over 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the Gulf of America. And we achieved first production at the ACES green hydrogen project in Utah. Earlier this month, a fire occurred at our El Segundo refinery. Importantly, there were no serious injuries and we continue to meet our supply commitments. We're cooperating with all regulatory agencies and have our own investigation underway. Our top priority at Chevron is always the safety of our people and the communities we work with. Now I'll turn it over to Eimear to go over the financials.

Eimear Bonner, CFO

Thanks, Mike. For the third quarter, Chevron reported earnings of $3.5 billion, or $1.82 per share. Adjusted earnings were $3.6 billion, or $1.85 per share. Included in the quarter were special items totaling $235 million. These included severance and other hedge related transaction costs and were partially offset by the fair value measurement of Hess shares held at the time of closing. Foreign currency effects increased earnings by $147 million. Organic CapEx was $4.4 billion for the quarter. We expect full year organic CapEx inclusive of Hess to be $17 billion to $17.5 billion, in line with guidance. Adjusted third quarter earnings were up $575 million versus last quarter. Adjusted Upstream earnings increased due to higher liftings and were partially offset by higher DD&A. Legacy Hess assets contributed $150 million in the quarter. Adjusted Downstream earnings increased due to higher refining volumes, improved chemical margins and favorable timing and OpEx results. Other segment earnings decreased due to higher interest expense, corporate charges and unfavorable tax effects. Adjusted third quarter earnings were down $900 million versus last year. Adjusted Upstream earnings decreased due to lower liquids realizations and higher DD&A from increased production at TCO, the Gulf of America and the Permian. The increase in OpEx and DD&A includes the impacts of the Hess acquisition. Adjusted Downstream earnings were higher, primarily due to improved refining margins. The Other segment was down mainly due to higher interest expense and other corporate charges. These results include benefits from our structural cost savings program. Our new operating model is live, and we've captured approximately $1.5 billion in annual run-rate savings so far, and expect to see further benefits in the fourth quarter. Cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, was $9.9 billion in the quarter. This represents a 20% increase compared to the same quarter last year when crude prices were $10 higher. Adjusted free cash flow, which includes equity affiliate loans and asset sales was $7 billion, and included the first loan repayment from TCO of $1 billion. Cash returned to shareholders totaled $6 billion and was more than covered on adjusted free cash flow. We expect strong cash generation to continue even in a lower price environment, underpinned by the increased capital efficiency and growth in high-margin assets. Third quarter oil equivalent production was up 690,000 barrels per day from last quarter, primarily due to legacy Hess production. In addition, strong execution drove production growth in the Permian, the Gulf of America and TCO. We expect full year average production growth at the top end of our 6% to 8% guidance range, excluding legacy Hess. Back to Mike to wrap it up.

Michael Wirth, CEO

Okay. Thanks, Eimear. Before we close, I'd like to say a few words of remembrance in honour of Chevron Board member, Dr. Alice Gast, who passed away earlier this week. In 1978, as a 20-year-old sophomore at Stanford, Alice served an internship at Chevron's Richmond refinery. She went on to earn her PhD in Chemical Engineering at Princeton. Her career came full circle 34 years later when she joined Chevron's Board in 2012. Alice was an internationally known scholar and researcher who served as President of both Lehigh University and Imperial College London. She encouraged us to stay curious, value teamwork and believe the best solutions come from listening to one another. Her legacy lives on in the questions we ask, the way we work together and the respect we show one another. And lastly, I have a final reminder that we're holding our Investor Day on November 12. You can find details and instructions for the webcast on chevron.com. We look forward to sharing our outlook to 2030 and highlighting our diversified and resilient portfolio. You can expect to hear about a consistent, disciplined and stronger Chevron. We hope you can join us. Over to you, Jake.

Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations

That concludes our prepared remarks. Additional guidance can be found in the appendix of this presentation as well as the slides and other information posted on chevron.com. We are now ready to take your questions. We ask that you limit yourself to just 1 question. We will do our best to get all of your questions answered. Katie, please open the lines.

Operator, Operator

Operator Instructions. We'll go first to Sam Margolin with Wells Fargo.

Sam Margolin, Analyst

I expect we'll probably reserve kind of strategic and long-dated questions for the November day. So we'll stick to the quarter. Maybe in the Permian, good production result there. Capital efficiency has been kind of an ongoing talking point and the distinction between co-op and NOJV acreage. Can you elaborate a little bit on what drove the Permian result? And if you're seeing some better results in the field? Or if it's just part of a broader kind of industry trend of efficiency gains?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes. So look, we had a strong quarter. We're 60,000 barrels a day over the 1 million-barrel where we said we kind of moved towards a plateau. It really highlights the efficiency gains. The team continues to deliver. We've got no change to our plans to moderate growth and focus on cash generation. We're focused on executing the program as efficiently as possible. Production is an outcome there. It will move up and down. I would expect we're going to see some quarters where it's back down a little bit based on when we're popping wells. But we've been able to continue to deliver strong performance with fewer rigs, fewer completion spreads, a lot of progress on little things including technology. And I think you'll hear more about this from Mark when we get together at Investor Day. So performance across the portfolio, co-op, NOJV, royalty has been strong, and we expect to move into 2026 with good momentum.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Devin McDermott with Morgan Stanley.

Devin McDermott, Analyst

Mike, I wanted to ask you about Kazakhstan. My understanding is you had the chance to meet with the President alongside the UN back in September. So I was wondering if you could just give us a little bit of an update on how some of the discussions around the concession extension are going, where we are in that process? Any broader color on the dialogue would be helpful.

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes. So I did see the President in New York during the UN General Assembly. It's actually the second time that I've seen him this year. And we had a good conversation about where we are. It was grounded in the fact that TCO has created enormous value for all stakeholders over the last 32 years as a stand-alone entity that has had strong partnership and performance with the Republic. Tengiz is performing well. You saw it this quarter. It's very visible in our results. It's bringing significant value both to shareholders of TCO and to the Republic. And we are off to what I would characterize as a good start to the negotiations. These are going to take some time. It's a complex contract. It's important to the Republic and it's important, obviously, to the shareholders. I wouldn't expect quarterly updates on this just due to the nature of the work. We've got technical teams engaged. We've got commercial teams engaged. And so the overall structure and governance and negotiations has been defined and they're beginning, but we really are just at the beginning. And so we'll update you from time to time as there is something more for us to say.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta, Analyst

Just wanted your perspective on the Bakken asset. You've had this under your portfolio here in Bruce's portfolio for a couple of months now. I mean it seems you made some adjustments to the activity plans. So what are some initial observations, thoughts on whether this asset is core? And do you view it as part of a broader Rockies corridor that can compete for capital in the portfolio?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes. We're excited to add the position to our shale and tight portfolio. Hess had a long-standing plan to grow it to 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and to maintain that plateau for the foreseeable future. We're at that level now. We see some opportunities to continue to capture efficiencies from drilling cycle time improvements, the use of longer laterals. So similar to what we've described for the Permian, we're going to look to optimize capital efficiency, operating efficiency. We'll bring experiences from other parts of our portfolio to the Bakken. And just as we saw with Noble and PDC, I'm sure we will bring some best practices from Hess' Bakken operation to other parts of our portfolio. We're in no hurry to make a decision on the longer-term role in the portfolio. I've mentioned this before, so I won't belabor it. But we had underestimated the quality of the DJ and its ability to compete in our portfolio. And as we really get a good look at it, we were pleasantly surprised. So we want to be sure that we've applied all the things that we've developed in other areas to the Bakken, take a look at how we'll compete for capital. We've got the midstream piece of it as well, which has to be factored into the thinking here. But we'll be thoughtful and thorough as we assess that and really focus on value. And we'll update you in due course as we reach any conclusions.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Ryan Todd with Piper Sandler.

Ryan Todd, Analyst

And maybe a follow-up on that. I mean overall, the Hess contribution came in at the high end of expectations or at least the guidance that you had provided earlier including very strong production. Can you maybe talk a little bit about what were some of the drivers of the strong performance? And any other kind of key takeaways a little bit into the ownership there?

Eimear Bonner, CFO

Yes, Ryan. It's Eimear. I'll take this one. Strong production growth was really the main driver along with the delivery of the anticipated synergies. Both of these factors contributed to the stronger performance. To elaborate on the synergies, we are progressing quickly through integration. This applies not just to the back-end part of the portfolio but to the entire portfolio. We had a $1 billion synergy target, and after closing, we confirmed that we will achieve this and deliver those run rate savings this year. Everything is on track, including the utilization of NOLs, cancellations or closures of productions, and operating efficiencies as we have integrated the assets into the Chevron system. We expect to see this reflected in the third quarter results and anticipate more in the fourth quarter.

Michael Wirth, CEO

Ryan, the one thing I might just add, we did see the start-up of Yellowtail in the quarter in FID for Hammerhead. I had a chance to sit down with the legacy Hess team that has been working Guyana and go through it for an entire day. And I got to tell you, I was impressed with Guyana, obviously, but I was really impressed and pleased with the quality of the people, and I have high expectations for the contributions that we're going to get out of all the Hess employees that are part of Chevron now. It's the thing that maybe doesn't get quantified or talked about as much in these kinds of calls. But in my experience, a huge amount of value when we combine with another organization is bringing in people that have different experiences can help us innovate and improve. And I have seen that again. So that's another real positive, I just want to emphasize.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research.

Doug Leggate, Analyst

Mike, I'm guessing you might touch on some of this in a couple of weeks, I'm not trying to front run you in any way, but I want to ask you about exploration. So you just made the point that you've hired or you've inherited a lot of people presumably exploration folks on Guyana from Hess. But you also just hired the ex-Head of Exploration from Total. You used to be the top explorer, if you go back pre-shale 2010 through 2015, spending a significant amount of capital and exploration. I'm just wondering, as you think about shale maturity, not necessarily for you guys, but in the industry generally, what is your prognosis for exploration, the role of exploration and the associated spending that could fit in Chevron going forward, let's say over the next phase of your development?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes. Thanks, Doug. Over the last several years, you're right, we've constrained our exploration spending, and we narrowed our focus into near infrastructure opportunities. We were adding a lot of resource and reserves in the unconventionals. And we're very serious about capital discipline. And so we made some trade-offs within the overall capital program. We now are at a point, I think, where we've characterized our unconventional position. It's a big and very attractive one. And we need to ramp up some of the exploration activity beyond just the focus on near infrastructure opportunities. So we'll move to a more balanced approach of mature areas that are well known and also early entry into high-impact frontier areas. We've added a lot of new country entries over the last couple of years in the South Atlantic margin, the Middle East, the West Coast of South America as well. So we will look to have a broader program in some of those areas, countries like Suriname, Brazil, Namibia, more opportunity in Nigeria and Angola, where we like some of the prospects that have added both blocks and have been shooting seismic recently. So we're looking for more out of that. We've modified our internal organization as part of the overall restructuring that you've heard about to simplify decision-making and speed it up. We're going to be bringing new technology to bear and have some really interesting things going on there. We've got some new people from Hess, also now Kevin joining us from Total. And our current Head of Exploration, Liz Schwarze has reached the end of a long and very wonderful career. It's a natural time to move on to a new person. And often, we look both inside and outside the company. And I think Kevin brings some unique experience that we expect will be helpful as well. And so, we will talk about that more in a couple of weeks when we see you. But the short story is more emphasis on frontier exploration. I think you'll see a little more commitment of resource. So that would be both people and capital to that.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria, Analyst

Actually, it's just another follow-up on the exploration front. It has been notable the new country entries. The one that caught my eye was in Namibia. I believe you're planning a 10-well campaign there. It doesn't seem like the first well has sort of put you off the basin. So a couple of questions related to that. Could you give us your updated thoughts on the prospectivity of the basin? And secondly, whether you feel like you have enough exposure through the exploration campaign or whether you'd be looking to add more from any inorganic opportunities that might arise?

Michael Wirth, CEO

We have identified a range of opportunities based on seismic data from our blocks. We drilled one well that did not find commercial hydrocarbons, but it was executed well, providing us with valuable insights that we are using to assess options for drilling other blocks within these licenses. Recently, we completed a farm-in on a couple of additional blocks in the Walvis Basin, and we plan to utilize some concepts from the Orange Basin for a well we aim to drill in 2026 or 2027. There has been significant interest in this area, and there have been past successes, including the Kudu gas discovery many years ago. We remain optimistic, as exploration requires thorough investigation to determine the findings. Regarding the 10 wells mentioned, we have an environmental permit that allows for up to 10 wells, but I wouldn't interpret that as a definitive plan to reach that number unless circumstances indicate it's the right approach. We don't usually comment on commercial activities or discussions, but we always evaluate all options to ensure we understand the market well. As I noted, we have farmed into some new opportunities, and we will continue to optimize our portfolio in Namibia and other locations.

Operator, Operator

We'll go next to Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.

Paul Cheng, Analyst

When I review your results from the past year or two, your core operations have performed very well. I'm curious if you've changed your management approach for your core business, and if this is now a sustainable model. It seems that the entire industry is also improving. Should we expect that the decline in your core business will be much less severe going forward, possibly around 3%? Is that a reasonable estimate, or could it even be lower in the future?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Thank you, Paul. I appreciate your attention to our global operations. There are a few key points to highlight. First, we are committed to executing the small details effectively. The current restructuring has enabled us to establish an organization in the upstream sector that is now aligned around asset classes, such as offshore and unconventional projects. We do have some significant assets in locations like Australia and Kazakhstan that report separately, but our alignment now facilitates the sharing of best practices and technology across these operations. As we make improvements in one area, we expect to see those benefits extend to others more rapidly. We are leveraging advanced technology, particularly in information technology that aids in automating processes and making quicker decisions, which we believe will lead to more significant results, and we are already observing some positive initial outcomes. Additionally, I want to remind you that our portfolio has evolved compared to a decade ago, where today a substantial portion of our production is in facilities that are capacity constrained, like TCO or Gorgon and Wheatstone. These facilities can deliver more, but their limits prevent a decline, allowing us to maintain production at lower capital levels. Similarly, in regions like the Permian, DJ, and Bakken, we are managing unconventional resources efficiently. The Permian in particular shows that production can remain stable with efficient capital use. While new wells may have a peak production profile, over time, as we move from many individual wells to larger numbers, we encounter a flatter production curve with minimal decline, which we can mitigate through our capital-efficient programs. The key takeaway is that our portfolio characteristics are intentional, designed to minimize the need for substantial capital investment to counteract significant declines, thereby creating a sustainable operational model year after year.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Steve Richardson with Evercore ISI.

Steve Richardson, Analyst

Mike, I'd like to get your thoughts on the California refining market. We are currently seeing a couple of significant shutdowns and there are some proposed pipeline projects aimed at delivering products to the West Coast, along with an increase in waterborne imports. I'd really appreciate your insights on this, the policy landscape, and how it impacts your business in the state.

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes. So the 2 recent, I guess, one that's underway right now and one that is set to close in 2026. Again, a lot of attention. Remember, there's a couple of other facilities that have been converted from petroleum-based feedstock to bio feedstocks with much lower overall production capacity. So you've seen a market where supply has tightened. It is a function of policy, pure and simple. Others have spoken to that as they've made changes either in the way a refinery is being used or announced plans to close it. And so, the policy is yielding the desired results. I think you're seeing some discussion now where the policy is being reconsidered, and there may be some small steps in the right direction we've seen, but nothing that I would say is significant. The other thing that is underway is people have to think about how do they get product to the state now because it is not going to be balanced to long. It is going to be balanced to short. And so marine imports are going to have to become a more regular feature. People are going to have to figure out how to do that. The recent talk about pipelines is interesting. California doesn't have inbound product pipelines or crude pipelines for that matter. These are interesting announcements. They're ambitious projects. There's many moving parts. These are complicated to permit. They're complicated to build. But I think fuel suppliers are looking for ways to meet the demand. One thing I think, as the supply is going to come from somewhere. So to the extent California starts to pull product from other markets, that has other knock-on effects as well. And so we'll see if these projects get built, we'll see how the market dynamics play out. But it's clearly a changing market. We've got a strong refining and marketing presence there. And to this point, can compete and deliver acceptable returns, but that's something that will continue to be tested. And the policy moves by the state will have an impact on the decisions get made by us and I suspect by others.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.

Jean Ann Salisbury, Analyst

This was true before Hess, but now more so, Chevron's portfolio is more weighted towards upstream than many of your integrated peers. Are you happy with that mix? Or is that something that you might seek ideally to even out over time with more downstream or CHEM's exposure?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes, our portfolio after Hess is approximately 85% upstream and 15% downstream, which aligns with our historical balance over the past couple of decades. We do not feel the need to increase our focus on the downstream segment beyond this. Although I have a strong appreciation for the downstream business, I recognize that upstream is a depleting resource sector, while downstream tends to expand in terms of capacity with facilities that generally grow rather than shrink, making it challenging to shut down refineries. We have witnessed some rationalization in the past five years due to COVID and market imbalances. Nonetheless, we believe that downstream returns will face more pressure over time compared to upstream returns, which are somewhat self-correcting. We are particularly interested in growing our petrochemical segment, with several projects currently active at CPChem. Although the market conditions in that area are difficult, we remain optimistic about long-term demand growth and economic prospects in petrochemicals. Expect our portfolio weighting to remain relatively stable compared to our current position.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman, Analyst

It looks like equity affiliate distributions have been running much higher than guide year-to-date. I think every quarter, it beats guide this year by about $700 million. Wondering what's driving that beat? Is it TCO outperformance? Is it higher LNG prices? And should we expect that to continue into 4Q and next year?

Eimear Bonner, CFO

Yes, the performance of affiliate dividends has exceeded expectations, largely due to TCO's strong performance since the start of the year. They have operated safely and reliably, and the results reflect that. However, there will be no change to our guidance despite this outperformance. In the fourth quarter, we have a pit stop plan for TCO, which will lead to a reduction in production. Additionally, TCO needs to conserve cash for two loan repayments due next year, one in the first quarter and another in the third quarter. These two factors are what drive the change in guidance, which may appear to be a decline, but is actually influenced by these considerations.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

Arun Jayaram, Analyst

Just a quick follow-up on TCO. That was a driver of the earnings beat this morning. Your production on the liquids side grew 5% sequentially, notwithstanding the turnaround in fourth quarter, but are you essentially ramped to capacity there?

Michael Wirth, CEO

We are very happy with TCO's performance. In the last quarter, we had consistent production, and I want to highlight the reliability of starting up a new set of processing trains, which can usually present some challenges. Fortunately, this time it went exceptionally smoothly. We had no planned maintenance in the third quarter, so everything is operating as expected. Additionally, we now have three generations of surface plants to process both liquids and gas: the original complex technology line, a second-generation plant started last decade, and a third-generation plant from this decade. We have an integrated control center that optimally routes streams across all three facilities, utilizing advanced information technology for better automation. This gives us more tools to enhance plant performance. We're also experiencing less back pressure from the field, contributing to our success. Historically, with these large and complex facilities, we manage to incrementally increase capacity over time. It's too early to revise any guidance on that, but history indicates there is potential for improvement, and our team is actively working on it. The fourth quarter will reflect the maintenance mentioned, and we'll continue to update you on our progress as we see developments unfold.

Operator, Operator

We'll go next to Phillip Jungwirth with BMO.

Phillip Jungwirth, Analyst

One of the big U.S. upstream themes has been getting more value for Permian gas. There's been a number of pipelines announced FID-ed. I know Chevron is already relatively well positioned here. But given that you produce, I think around from the Permian, just was hoping you could talk about what you're already doing on the marketing side here and also what you think you can do in the future to further maximize value?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Thank you, Phil. I appreciate your interest in this topic. In the Permian, we handle all of our company-operated production, which includes oil, NGLs, and gas, along with nearly half of the NOJV production. Overall, about 70% of our production benefits from U.S. Gulf Coast pricing. The remaining NOJV and royalty volumes that we don't market are subject to in-basin pricing and Waha pricing for gas. Our exposure to Waha pricing can fluctuate each quarter. Last quarter, it was closer to 20% instead of the 30% I previously mentioned because we utilized some of our excess firm transportation capacity to gain value from others who couldn't move their resources out of the basin. This allows us to take advantage of opportunities that arise from time to time to mitigate some of the volumes we don't market ourselves. Moving forward, you can expect us to continue this strategy. We currently have transportation covered for all three streams out of the basin. When we have surplus capacity, we can leverage it for additional value. Since we follow a consistent and well-organized program, we can commit in advance with confidence regarding production composition and the volumes we’ll require. Midstream companies find us a desirable partner due to our credit quality and reliability, and we will keep using that to ensure we are well-positioned and optimize value throughout the entire value chain.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Lucas Herrmann with BNP.

Lucas Herrmann, Analyst

I wanted to revisit the Downstream and Chemicals segment. You have two major facilities starting up in collaboration with Qatar Energy next year. My question is regarding the cash flow increment you expect at current levels as these facilities come online or as their capacity increases. Additionally, similar to TCO, how much do you anticipate CapEx at CPChem to decline, and what impact will this have on distributions to your central operations?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes, Phil, we'll talk about this a little bit more at Investor Day. Two things I would just point out, these are world-scale facilities. They have very advantaged feedstock positions and they will be very low on the cost curve. And so they're highly competitive facilities that will be coming into the market. At the margin, some of the length in the market tends to be in countries where they're cracking naphtha. They tend not to be world-scale facilities, and they're feeling a lot of economic pressure right now. So we think both of these projects are well positioned to deliver returns over the long term. They're kind of 20% type IRR expectations on these projects. We're very pleased with our relationship with QE. Chevron's exposure comes through a joint venture in CPChem and then a further venture with QE. So you have to think about that as you think about how exposed we are and how much cash those might generate because it flows back through the dividend policy at CPChem and we're only exposed to a portion of each of those facilities. So more to follow at Investor Day on that subject.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Paul Sankey with Sankey Research.

Paul Sankey, Analyst

Mike, I understand you can't discuss the specifics of the analyst meeting, but I wanted to ask if you could provide some context regarding the macro environment. This meeting will be your first since 2023, marking the longest gap between meetings that I can recall. Given the current state of the world, I would like your perspective on how things have changed, noting both cyclical and structural shifts as we approach this meeting. To help guide your response, I'm thinking about several key issues: the ongoing war in Ukraine, a significant shift in ESG priorities, the rise of AI, changes in OPEC policy, the potential second Trump administration, and the evolving interest rate environment. I'd appreciate it if you could set the stage for us.

Michael Wirth, CEO

All right. Well, Paul, what you've done is you've kind of teed up the answer I give to people when they say, isn't this kind of yesterday's business and there's not a lot going on in it. I mean the world changes constantly. And in 2.5 or 2 years and 8 months, whatever it will have been since our last meeting, a lot has changed. The war in Russia had only begun or the war in Ukraine. The Middle East hadn't seen the hostility breakout. We hadn't seen Iran hit the way that it now has been. You're right. We were kind of at peak ESG. At our last meeting, there was not much interest in AI at the time or not much public acknowledgment of what was probably going on behind the scenes there. OPEC was responding, I guess, at that point in time, still we've been in a high-price market due to the start of the conflict in Ukraine. But before long, they started constraining. And we had President Biden in the U.S., not present Trump. So we always have a changing context in this industry. The last few years might have had a little more interesting change than most. But the fundamentals really are what we try to look through and the global economy continues to grow. The population of the planet continues to grow. Economic development continues to advance. And affordable and reliable energy is fundamental to that progress. And I think the conflict in Ukraine has pointed that out. What we're seeing with AI and the stress on the power system in the U.S. is pointing that out. And so affordable, reliable energy is the lifeblood of a modern economy. That's the business that we're in and the fundamentals of that, we continue to believe offer value-creating opportunities for wise capital investment long, long into the future. So we'll talk about that. We'll give you some guidance on our business out to the end of the decade. Right now, I think most of our guidance goes to the end of next year. I think one thing I would say, Paul, is you should expect us to be consistent in what you're going to hear from us. Our strategy has stood the test of time over a pretty volatile period, as you just described. And we know you're interested in cash and earnings growth through the decade. What we'll also talk about is how we'll deliver that through continued capital and cost discipline, through innovation, through technology, through a very strong portfolio, through one that is low risk and high confidence, as I've seen in my career and is set up to continue to reward our shareholders with continued strong cash returns through the dividend policy where we have been a leader. And through a steady through-the-cycle share repurchase program, where I think we've been very predictable and consistent. So that maybe says no huge surprises. But it does say that a good story is continuing to get better.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Bob Brackett with Bernstein Research.

Bob Brackett, Analyst

There's a view out in the macro market for oil that the market is oversupplied in '26 and that shale has to make some room for OPEC spare capacity. You all touch more barrels in the Permian than anyone through your operated, your non-op JVs and your royalties. What's the state of the Permian today? And how would you forecast that, say, into next year?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes. I mean the current rig count is somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 rigs, I think, that is at or at least close to multiyear lows. I think most third parties seem to think that level of rigs is an appropriate number to maintain current production levels. And that's, of course, dependent upon are they still finding good productive opportunities beyond the top-tier acreage? Are companies still able to deliver cash back to shareholders, which is a promise that I think we've seen a lot of the Permian operators now commit to, that may be tested as we go through a period of lower prices, and see how they handle the trade-off between capital and cash returns to shareholders. We continue to see efficiency and productivity gains in our fleet. I think others are probably seeing similar kinds of gains and we continue to work on technology and things that will improve not only the ability to execute well, but the ability to recover more. So most companies seem to be guiding to kind of flattish or maybe slightly reduced CapEx as we go forward. I would say that's probably not a bad proxy for where production is likely to go. So not growing at the rate that we've seen before, probably plateauing. But as all of you that have watched the Permian over the last 15 or 20 years have seen these things change. And it's a dynamic basin. It's a highly responsive basin with a lot of players in it, and it can be quite responsive to market signals.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from Geoff Jay with Daniel Energy Partners.

Geoff Jay, Analyst

My question is about Argentina. I noticed that you produced a significant increase this quarter. Given that you have a similar amount of acres there as you do in the DJ, I'm curious about how you see the potential for Argentina's production over the next two or three years. What are the main factors that could affect that growth?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Yes. Let me begin by mentioning that we have been operating in Argentina for many years, with a history that includes vertical production through acquisitions from decades past. We have a strong understanding of the subsurface and are pleased with the quality of the subsurface in the Vaca Muerta region, both in the south at Loma Campana with our partner YPF and in the north at El Trapial, where we manage operations. It was also encouraging to see the support for President Milei in the recent election. We have noticed some positive macroeconomic indicators in Argentina since the current administration came into power in 2023, including efforts to stabilize the banking system, reduce or eliminate capital controls, lower inflation, and invest in regional infrastructure. These policy reforms have the potential to make Argentina more appealing for investment and enhance its competitiveness in our portfolio. We do not anticipate any changes to our short-term plans and want to see how these indicators develop. We appreciate the quality of the rock and expect moderate growth this year, estimating around 25,000 barrels a day by 2025. We are incorporating lessons, talent, and technology from other basins into our operations in Argentina to improve results. If the policy advancements continue, Argentina could effectively compete for investment moving forward, and we are hopeful that it will. There is significant potential for growth, which I won't quantify, but there is definitely upside due to its scale and the competitive quality of the rock. The DJ area might serve as a useful comparison, but we will proceed methodically.

Operator, Operator

We'll take our next question from James West with Melius Research.

James West, Analyst

Quick question on the Permian for you. I'm curious, as other operators are dropping CapEx, dropping rigs, dropping frac spreads, you guys recently hit 1 million barrels a day. You're having a lot of success there. What's the differentiator on your operations versus, say, the smaller peers?

Michael Wirth, CEO

Welcome, James. It's great to hear from you, and we look forward to seeing you in New York in a few weeks. We operate with a long-term strategy and have a manufacturing-oriented approach to asset development. We plan our tasks and execute accordingly, without significantly reacting to short-term fluctuations in commodity markets. Smaller operators, who may not have the same financial stability, diversified portfolios, or may face additional financial challenges, might take a different approach. We believe that maintaining a steady and consistent manufacturing strategy enables us to test and implement new techniques and technologies, leading to ongoing improvements. Our productivity in drilling wells has increased by 40% compared to a few years ago, and we've seen similar advancements in completions. The scale and steady developmental approach contribute to our continuous improvement, while smaller companies often cannot maintain the same pace without needing to readjust their plans. Regarding our NOJV, we've partnered with some of the largest operators in the region, and currently, we are not witnessing significant changes in their activity levels, which remain aligned with our business strategy. We have a clear outlook for our performance in 2025 for the rest of this year and a promising perspective on 2026, with visibility on wells either currently operational or under construction and AFEs already being processed for 2026. Therefore, we do not anticipate significant constraints or contractions in the NOJV aspect of our business as we move into next year.

Jake Spiering, Head of Investor Relations

I would like to thank everyone for your time today. We appreciate your interest in Chevron and your participation on today's call, and we look forward to seeing you in a few weeks. Please stay safe and healthy. Katie, back to you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This concludes Chevron's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.