Earnings Call Transcript
DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (DB)
Earnings Call Transcript - DB Q3 2025
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q3 2025 Analyst Conference Call. I'm Moritz, your Chorus Call operator. The conference is being recorded. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Ioana Patriniche, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ioana Patriniche, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2025 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first; followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website, db.com. Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. We, therefore, ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to Christian.
Christian Sewing, CEO
Thank you, Ioana, and good morning from me. As you will have seen, we delivered record profitability in the first 9 months of 2025. We are tracking in line with our full year 2025 goals on all dimensions. 9 months revenues at EUR 24.4 billion are fully in line with our full year goal of around EUR 32 billion before FX effects. Adjusted costs at EUR 15.2 billion are consistent with our guidance. Post-tax return on tangible equity is 10.9%, meeting our full year target of above 10%. And our cost/income ratio at 63% is also consistent with our target of below 65%. Profitability is significantly stronger than in the same period of 2024, even if adjusting for the Postbank litigation provision, which impacted last year's result. Through organic capital generation, our CET1 ratio rose to 14.5% in the quarter. This reflects our latest share buyback program, which we completed this month and a significant proportion of next year's distributions. Asset quality remains solid. Provisions were in line with expectations, and we had no exposure to recent high-profile cases. In short, we are fully focused on delivering on our 2025 targets. Let me now turn to the operating leverage, which drove our profit growth on Slide 3. Pre-provision profit was EUR 9 billion in the first 9 months of 2025, up nearly 50% year-on-year or nearly 30% if adjusted for the Postbank litigation impacts in both periods. Similarly, adjusted for the Postbank litigation impact, operating leverage was 9% and profit before tax was up 36%. We saw continued revenue growth of 7% with momentum across the businesses. Net commission and fee income was up 5% year-on-year, while NII across key banking book segments and other funding was essentially stable. 74% of revenues came from more predictable revenue streams, the Corporate Bank, Private Bank, Asset Management and the financing business in FIC. Cost discipline remains strong. Noninterest expenses were down 8% year-on-year with significantly lower nonoperating costs, largely due to the nonrepeat of Postbank litigation provisions, while adjusted costs were flat. Let me now turn to our progress on the pillars of strategy execution on Slide 4. We are on track to meet or exceed all our 2025 strategic goals. Compound annual revenue growth since 2021 was 6%, in the middle of our range of between 5.5% and 6.5%. In a changing environment, we are benefiting from a well-diversified earnings mix. Operational efficiencies stood at EUR 2.4 billion, either delivered or expected from measures completed. In other words, 95% of our EUR 2.5 billion goal. Capital efficiencies have already reached EUR 30 billion in RWA reductions, the high end of our target range, and we see scope for further efficiency through year-end. During the quarter, we launched our second share buyback program of 2025 with a value of EUR 250 million, which we completed last week. This takes total share buybacks in 2025 to EUR 1 billion. So together with our 2024 dividend paid in May this year, total capital distributions in 2025 reached EUR 2.3 billion, up around 50% over 2024. This brings cumulative distributions since 2022 to EUR 5.6 billion. Finally, a word on our business on Slide 5. We are delivering strength and strategic execution across all 4 businesses in our Global Hausbank in 2025. All 4 businesses have delivered double-digit profit growth and double-digit RoTE in the first 9 months. The Corporate Bank continues to scale further the Global Hausbank model and delivered strong fee growth of 5% in the first 9 months, while recognized as the best trade finance bank. Our Investment Bank has been there for clients through challenging times this year and has seen an increase in activity across the whole client spectrum, institutional, corporate and priority groups. The Private Bank has made tremendous progress with its transformation so far this year, with 9 months profits up 71%. Our growth strategy in Wealth Management is paying off. Assets under management have grown by EUR 40 billion year-to-date with net inflows of EUR 25 billion. And in Asset Management, the combination of fee-based expansion with operational efficiency drives sustainable returns of 25%. We are benefiting from our strength in European ETFs and expanding our offering in that area. To sum up our performance in 2025 to date, we have delivered record profitability due to continued revenue momentum and cost discipline. Our 9 months performance is in line with our full year financial goals on all dimensions. We are on track to reach or exceed our strategy execution targets. We have demonstrated strength across all 4 of our businesses. Our capital position is strong and supports our aim of distributions to shareholders in excess of EUR 8 billion payable between 2022 and 2026. Before I hand over to James, I want to briefly address our future. We have built very strong foundations for the next phase of our strategic agenda. And with our positioning in the strongest European economy, we stand to benefit from powerful tailwinds coming from German fiscal stimulus, structural reforms and renewed client confidence. We look forward to discussing this with you at our Investor Deep Dive in London in November.
James Von Moltke, CFO
Thank you, Christian, and good morning. As you can see on Slide 7, we saw continued strong delivery this quarter against all the broader objectives and targets we set ourselves for 2025. Our revenue growth, cost/income ratio and return on tangible equity are all developing in line with our full year objectives. Our capital position is strong, and our liquidity metrics are sound. The liquidity coverage ratio finished the quarter at 140%, and the net stable funding ratio was 119%. With that, let me now turn to the third quarter highlights on Slide 8. Our diversified and complementary business mix resulted in reported revenue growth of 7% year-on-year or 10% if adjusted for foreign exchange translation impacts. Due to the nonrecurrence of a provision release related to the Postbank takeover litigation matter from which we benefited last year, third quarter nonoperating costs and noninterest expenses were both higher year-on-year. The tax rate of 26% in the third quarter benefited from the reduction of deferred tax liabilities due to the change in the German corporate tax rate, which will start to decline after 2027. We continue to expect the 2025 full year tax rate to range between 28% and 29%. In the third quarter, diluted earnings per share was EUR 0.89 and tangible book value per share increased 3% year-on-year to EUR 30.17. Before I go on, a few remarks on Corporate and Other with further information in the appendix on Slide 36. C&O generated a pretax loss of EUR 110 million in the quarter, mainly driven by shareholder expenses and other centrally held items, partially offset by positive revenues and valuation and timing differences. Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results, starting with net interest income on Slide 9. NII across key banking book segments and other funding was EUR 3.3 billion. The Private Bank continued to deliver steady NII growth, supported by the ongoing rollover of our structural hedge portfolio and deposit inflows. Corporate Bank NII was slightly down quarter-on-quarter, reflecting lower one-offs, while it continues to be supported by underlying portfolio growth as well as hedge rollover. With respect to the full year, we continue to benefit from the long-term hedge portfolio rollover detailed on Slide 24 of the appendix and are on track to meet our plans on a currency-adjusted basis. Turning to Slide 10. Adjusted costs were EUR 5 billion for the quarter. Cost discipline across the franchise remains strong. Compensation costs were up on a year-on-year basis, primarily reflecting the higher performance-related accruals, higher deferred equity compensation and the impact of increasing Deutsche Bank and DWS share prices. With that, let me turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11. Stage 3 provision for credit losses increased in the quarter to EUR 357 million as provisions for commercial real estate continued to be elevated, while the prior quarter included model-related benefits. Stage 1 and 2 provisions reduced to EUR 60 million and were driven by further model updates, which, as in the prior quarter, mainly impacted CRE-related provisions. Wider portfolio performance and asset quality remain resilient. While the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment continues to create uncertainty, we continue to expect lower provisioning levels in the second half of the year relative to the first half year, primarily due to the expected absence of additional notable model effects impacting Stage 1 and 2. We are actively monitoring and managing risks from private credit, which, as outlined on Slide 28, accounts for about 5% of our loan book. Our private credit exposure predominantly reflects lender finance facilities extended to high-quality financial sponsors backed by diversified pools of loans. These facilities are overwhelmingly investment-grade rated internally and are underwritten and maintained with conservative LTVs. We apply conservative underwriting standards, including our assessment of sponsor and investor quality, loan sizes and structural features. We are comfortable with our portfolio. And as Christian said, we had no exposure to recent high-profile cases. As you might expect, we remain vigilant and have undertaken additional portfolio reviews in light of these events. With that, let me turn to capital on Slide 12. Strong third quarter earnings, net of AT1 coupon and dividend deductions led to an increase in the CET1 ratio to 14.5%, up 26 basis points sequentially. RWA were flat during the quarter. As we head into the fourth quarter, let me remind you of the 27 basis point CET1 benefit we still have from the adoption of the Article 468 CRR transitional rule for unrealized gains and losses, which will expire at the end of the year. Also, following revised EBA guidance from June 2025 regarding the calculation of operational risk RWA under the new standardized approach, we must now perform the annual update of operational risk RWA already by the end of 2025, which is expected to lead to a 19 basis point drawdown in CET1 ratio terms. All else equal, therefore, these 2 items applied to the third quarter would lead to a pro forma CET1 ratio of approximately 14%, which is also roughly where we currently expect to finish the year. Our third quarter leverage ratio was 4.6%, down 11 basis points, principally from higher loans and commitments alongside increased settlement activity at quarter end. Tier 1 capital was essentially flat in the quarter as the derecognition of the USD 1.25 billion AT1 instrument that we called in September materially offset the quarter-on-quarter increase in CET1 capital. Let us now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 14. In the third quarter, Corporate Bank achieved a strong post-tax return on tangible equity of 16.2% and a cost/income ratio of 63%, maintaining its high profitability. Both metrics showed a year-on-year improvement for the quarter as well as for the first 9 months of 2025. As anticipated in the previous quarter, Corporate Bank revenues remained essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter, demonstrating resilience in a challenging environment. Margin normalization and FX headwinds were offset by interest hedging, higher average deposits and 4% growth in net commission and fee income, driven by continued expansion in corporate treasury services. On a sequential basis, revenues were slightly lower as the prior quarter benefited from one-off interest hedging gains and seasonally stronger net commission and fee income. Loans and deposits remained essentially flat on a reported basis. Adjusted for foreign exchange movements, loan volumes increased by EUR 5 billion year-on-year, driven by growth in the trade finance business and by EUR 1 billion sequentially. Deposit volumes remained strong with underlying growth both year-on-year and sequentially, offsetting the runoff of concentrated client balances. Noninterest expenses and adjusted costs were essentially flat as effective cost management mitigated the impact of inflation and investments in client service. A release of provision for credit losses, reflecting a release of Stage 1 and 2 and a low level of Stage 3 provisions demonstrates the continued resilience of the loan book. I'll now turn to the Investment Bank on Slide 15. Revenues for the third quarter increased 18% year-on-year with continued strength in FIC supported by a material improvement in O&A. FIC revenues increased 19%, driven by strong performance across businesses. Macro products and credit trading demonstrated material year-on-year improvements following strong market activity through the quarter, while financing continued its momentum with revenues again higher than the prior year period, driven by an increased carry profile, reflecting targeted balance sheet deployment. Moving to O&A. Revenues were significantly higher both year-on-year and sequentially, increasing 27% and 22%, respectively. Debt origination was the biggest driver as both leveraged and investment-grade debt grew revenues year-on-year with the leveraged finance market particularly active, having recovered well since the second quarter. Equity origination revenues increased 57%, driven by strong issuance activity, including an improved IPO market. Advisory revenues were essentially flat year-on-year as the industry fee pool moved away from our areas of strength. However, pipeline for the fourth quarter is encouraging. Noninterest expenses were higher year-on-year, primarily driven by the impact of higher deferred compensation and increased litigation charges. Provision for credit losses was EUR 308 million, significantly higher year-on-year, with Stage 1 and 2 provisions materially impacted by further model updates during the quarter and Stage 3 impairments. Let me now turn to the Private Bank on Slide 16. The Private Bank continued its disciplined strategy execution and delivered a strong quarterly performance. Profit before tax doubled, reflecting 13% operating leverage in the quarter. Return on tangible equity rose to 12.6%, showing robust growth both sequentially and year-on-year. Revenues increased driven by a 9% rise in net interest income from deposits and lending, while net commission and fee income was essentially flat year-on-year. Growth in discretionary portfolio mandates, specifically in Germany, was partially offset by lower net commission and fee income from cards, payments and postal services this quarter. Growth in Personal Banking was mainly driven by higher investment and deposit revenues. Lending revenues were up slightly, helped by the absence of an episodic item in the prior year. The continued expansion in Wealth Management and Private Banking was supported by solid momentum in discretionary portfolio mandates. Sustained cost efficiency underpinned by transformation benefits led to a 9 percentage point improvement in the cost/income ratio to 68%. Personal Banking continued its transformation with 24 additional branch closures in the quarter, bringing the total to 109 this year. These actions contributed to workforce reductions of 1,000 in the first 9 months, demonstrating continued strategy execution. Business momentum remains strong with significant net inflows of EUR 13 billion, supported by successful deposit campaigns. Underlying credit trends showed improvements with provision for credit losses benefiting from model updates. Turning to Slide 17. My usual reminder, the Asset Management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS stand-alone financials. Profit before tax improved significantly by 42% from the prior year period, driven by higher revenues and resulting in an increase in return on tangible equity of 9 percentage points to 28% for this quarter. Revenues increased by 11% versus the prior year. Growth in average assets under management, both from markets and net inflows resulted in higher management fees of EUR 655 million. In addition, performance fees saw a significant increase from the prior year period, primarily due to the recognition of fees from an infrastructure fund. Noninterest expenses and adjusted costs were essentially flat, resulting in a decline in the cost/income ratio to below 60% for the quarter. Quarterly net inflows totaled EUR 12 billion with EUR 10 billion into passive products, including Xtrackers, which also recorded its best day ever this quarter in terms of net new assets. SQI, advisory services and cash contributed a further EUR 3 billion of net inflows, which more than offset EUR 2 billion in net outflows from multi-asset and active equity products. Assets under management increased to EUR 1.05 trillion in the quarter, driven by positive market impact and the aforementioned net inflows. During the quarter, DWS received the necessary licenses to open a new office in Abu Dhabi, strengthening its regional presence and client engagement in the Middle East, reinforcing its position as the preferred gateway to Europe for global investors. For further details, please have a look at DWS’s disclosure on their Investor Relations website. Turning to the outlook on Slide 18. We are on track to meet our full year 2025 targets and remain confident in our trajectory to deliver a return on tangible equity of above 10% and a cost/income ratio of below 65%. Our year-to-date performance supports our revenue and expense objectives. Our asset quality remains solid. And despite uncertainty from developments around CRE as well as the macroeconomic environment, we continue to anticipate lower provisioning levels in the second half. Our strong capital position and third quarter profit growth provide a solid foundation as we head into 2026. We also completed our second buyback, taking total buybacks in 2025 to EUR 1 billion, and we reiterate our commitment to outperforming our EUR 8 billion distribution target. And we look forward to providing you with an update on our forward-looking strategy and financial trajectory at our next Investor Deep Dive on November 17. With that, let me hand back to Ioana, and we look forward to your questions.
Ioana Patriniche, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, James. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.
Operator, Operator
And the first question comes from Tarik El Mejjad from Bank of America.
Tarik El Mejjad, Analyst
I have two questions, please. First, you reported strong Q3 results, which puts you on track to meet your 2025 targets regarding revenues, costs, return on tangible equity, and capital. Can you share your views on achieving the 2025 targets and whether Q4 will show similar or improved trends compared to Q3, or should we be prepared for some potential negative surprises? I'm asking this because it's crucial for the trajectory and credibility of your medium-term targets that will be presented in three weeks. The second question is more long-term: can you discuss how a bank like yours would benefit from the German fiscal stimulus? How significant is it for your medium-term profitability? Additionally, could you provide an update on how the implementation of fiscal stimulus is progressing and its advantages?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Thank you for your question. Let me address both of your inquiries. Firstly, we fully agree with you on the significance of achieving our targets for 2025 to strengthen our credibility. I can honestly say that we are very confident in our ability to reach these goals. I want to reiterate what James mentioned at the end of his comments. We are pleased with our performance over the first nine months, which showcases our strengths and the ongoing improvement, momentum, and validity of our strategy. Particularly during these times of geopolitical uncertainties, the concept of the Global Hausbank is gaining traction, and clients are increasingly seeking our advice, whether they are private, corporate, or institutional clients. Therefore, I am optimistic that this momentum will continue into the fourth quarter. On the revenue side, we had a strong start in October in investment banking, and we have good visibility regarding our pipeline for the fourth quarter. Our more predictable business segments, especially Private Banking and Asset Management, look solid. While the year is not over, I anticipate higher performance fees in Asset Management, indicating potential upside to our already positive outlook. Although Q4 is usually a bit weaker seasonally, it aligns with our plans and may even surpass them, reinforcing my confidence in achieving the EUR 32 billion target. We are adept at managing costs, as demonstrated quarterly, and we will apply the same discipline in Q4. I am confident that we will demonstrate another strong quarter from an operating performance perspective. Regarding risk, we anticipate that the second half of 2025 will show lower provisions than the first half, and we have already started to observe this in Q3. Our credit portfolio remains solid, and we have maintained our stringent underwriting criteria. Overall, despite occasional seasonal issues, everything points toward my strong belief that we will meet and possibly exceed our targets for return on equity, the cost/income ratio, and shareholder distributions well above EUR 8 billion. We also have a compelling capital story, which I am sure James will address. Regarding Germany and how this fits into our plans, I don’t want to be defensive, but we will discuss this in detail during our upcoming event in two and a half weeks. However, I maintain my positive outlook on Germany's stimulus program and its initiatives over the next two to three years. The government has consistently emphasized growth and competitiveness as key priorities. While there are concerns about the pace of implementation, which we all wish were faster, we should also consider the progress made alongside the adjustments to the debt break. There are concrete discussions between the government and institutions, including ours, on how to effectively utilize the EUR 500 billion for infrastructure and defense. We have seen reforms in taxation, investment incentives, and some initial changes to social and pension policies. There is a clear indication from our discussions with the government that more reforms are on the horizon. Consequently, we are optimistic that Germany can achieve a growth rate of 1.5% in 2026. Although private corporations are calling for more expedited actions, the recent announcement of the Ifo Business Climate Index being at its highest since 2022 is an encouraging sign that progress is being made. The "Made for Germany" initiative, which we discussed back in July, has nearly doubled the number of participating companies, totaling more than EUR 730 billion in committed investments over the next three years. While it is essential to maintain pressure on the government, I am optimistic that Germany will move beyond the stagnant growth we have experienced for too long and return to a growth trajectory, which will ultimately benefit us, with further details to come on the upcoming event.
Joseph Dickerson, Analyst
I've got a question first on private credit in a couple of areas. So I've seen your disclosure on Slide 28. And it seems to me that people tend to conflate private credit with other aspects of asset-backed finance and sponsor lending. So I guess, could you just give us your perspective on private credit and the outlook? What are the areas of risk you're looking at? And what are the areas of opportunity that you are also assessing because it seems like only months ago, this was a big area of opportunity for banks? So it would be interesting to have your opinion on the opportunity. And then just on nonbank financial institutions because I know the disclosure in the U.S. is different from Europe, where I don't think there's a precise definition, but how do you assess NBFIs and counterparties in that regard? So that's, I guess, the first question around private credit. And then secondly, on the CET1 ratio with the OCI filter and the op risk, which I think was pulled forward in the Q4. Can you confirm that going forward, you'll distribute capital down to the 14% threshold sustainably? Because I think that's an important point for investors.
James Von Moltke, CFO
Thanks, Joseph, for your questions. It's James. Let me start with the capital item you mentioned. The short answer is yes. We wanted to indicate with the pro forma we provided even greater confidence in our distribution path moving forward. I want to ensure that our comments were clear. The two items we highlighted are ones we've discussed before. We now believe that, through the EBA guidance and our own actions, we can include both in the year-end ratio. You may remember we mentioned some potential volatility in the ratio, which would not have given a clear view of our position as we head into '26. We think we can now achieve that. Hence, we're guiding at 14%, which we find encouraging as it positions us to generate excess capital from the start of the year and potentially distribute that. Additionally, with the interim profit recognition we have, EUR 2.4 billion of capital is excluded from the ratio. The 14.5% does not account for EUR 2.4 billion set aside for distribution next year. Furthermore, 50% of net income in the fourth quarter would also be available for distribution based on that 50% payout ratio. We believe we will exceed that based on earnings above the 14% starting point. We wanted to convey a strong message that we're beginning at the top of our range, which gives us even greater confidence compared to our last quarter's discussion. Regarding the NBFI disclosure, it really isn’t very useful because it includes various aspects that investors aren't interested in, like clearing houses and insurance exposures. That's why we provided additional disclosure indicating that about 5% of the loan book is allocated to private credit. We've been active in this market for a long time, and the FIC financing business is not new to us. We have extensive experience in structured credit lending and believe we possess strong capabilities to innovate and seize market opportunities as they arise. Our track record in underwriting and risk discipline has been solid. Although we're experiencing spread compression due to increased capital entering private credit from banks and industry players, we also see opportunities to innovate and expand our portfolio. We've maintained strict discipline in this area, and we have successfully and profitably grown before, and we believe that will continue despite the earlier mentioned spread compression.
Joseph Dickerson, Analyst
Great. So just to conclude on the Q4 capital position, it sounds like you're creating a position of strength for next year.
James Von Moltke, CFO
Position of strength, absolutely. We talked about the OCI filter starting in the third quarter of last year. It was a feature of CRR3 that we and other banks availed ourselves of. So a temporary protection of about EUR 800 million in unrealized losses on essentially sovereign debt. And then we've also talked about the fact that in the old regulatory guidance, we would only recognize op risk RWA increases in the standardized approach that refer to the prior year's revenues. Based on new EBA guidance, that's expected to be recognized already in the year. And those are the 2 items we're calling out. And the good news for investors is it will take the volatility out of our disclosure, but the guidance of a 14% endpoint, we think, is encouraging.
Giulia Miotto, Analyst
I want to first follow up on the capital distribution point. Is it reasonable to expect two buybacks next year? One would be in Q4, and the second possibly around midyear results, considering you start from 14%, build excess capital from there, and plan to distribute everything down to 14%. To clarify, I am trying to confirm that there are no potential downgrades to the expected EUR 1.5 billion buybacks in 2026 based on consensus. Additionally, thank you for the extra information on private credit; it’s helpful. I believe you mentioned these exposures are to high-quality lenders, investment grade with conservative LTV. Do you provide the average LTV and concentration details? How large is the biggest exposure? Could you share these figures, which would likely further reassure investors?
James Von Moltke, CFO
Sure, thank you, Giulia. Regarding distribution, the short answer is yes. We're adapting to the evolving rules in Europe for crafting distribution policies and navigating approval processes. Investors can expect that in the first several months of the year, we will be ready to distribute the accrued amounts based on that 50%. If there is excess capital in our capital plan, a second application and approval process will be needed, similar to what we did this year. As net income increases, those figures will grow with earnings. Additionally, we previously discussed the sustainably above concept. This means that the amount of capital above 14% is not just a temporary situation. We also expect that opportunities in our capital plan can lead to excess capital, such as the potential amendments in FRTB or a decrease in demand for capital in our business. This will factored into the second application over time. Concerning private credit, we disclose on Page 28 the loan-to-value (LTV) associated with the 75% block known as lender finance, which is backed by diversified pools of credit and is below 60% with a maintenance covenant. This is typical for this type of lending, and in other areas like subscription finance or NAV financing, LTVs can be even lower. We believe the risks are minimal unless there's fraud, which primarily affects single lender or single asset facilities. Our exposure to that type of nonrecourse single asset is very small, again, just a percentage of that 5% of the loan book. I hope this provides clarity on our exposures.
Giulia Miotto, Analyst
This was super clear. Just if I can follow-up, can you quantify the exposure to this single lender facility that you just mentioned?
James Von Moltke, CFO
I believe it's under 5% of the 5%, so it's a very minor exposure. Additionally, in those instances, since it's a single asset, the oversight we implement and the loan-to-value ratios we are willing to lend are even more conservative compared to when dealing with a pool. While no lending process is flawless, we are confident that these portfolios are strong in terms of their protective measures and oversight.
Giulia Miotto, Analyst
Great. And the last follow-up. The 60% LTV is on 75% of this private credit exposure. On the remaining 25%, what sort of LTVs do you have?
James Von Moltke, CFO
Average would be lower than the given the composition that I mentioned of what is otherwise there.
Flora Bocahut, Analyst
I wanted to ask you a first question on the op risk comment you made regarding the annual update that is coming at year-end. I just want to understand how much of a one-off this is because you mentioned annual event when you comment on it. So is this something that's going to hit again every year? And if so, do you have an idea of the magnitude? So just to assess how recurring an event this could be? And the second question is on the Corporate Bank revenues. The fee growth is clearly positive, but has been slowing a bit this quarter. The NII declined slightly sequentially, which you commented on. For you to make the guidance for the full year, it would imply a boost suddenly sequentially in that revenues for Q4. So anything you can give us on how confident you are that there is going to be a rebound Q-on-Q in the Corporate Bank revenues in Q4?
James Von Moltke, CFO
Thank you, Flora. The operational risk item is now a fixed part of the standardized approach to operational risk risk-weighted assets. This change also stabilizes our estimates throughout the year. We'll report a figure in December, which will remain consistent for the rest of the year, and it will be based on a three-year average. Each year, we will need to update this average with the new revenue figures. Regarding the Corporate Bank, we believe we are currently at a low point in revenues, but we should exercise some caution with that forecast. We expect net interest income to be at a low, followed by a slight increase heading into the fourth quarter. However, keep in mind that fee and commission income can experience some seasonal fluctuations. The second quarter is typically the strongest due to dividend payments and activity in the trust and agency sector, making the third quarter a bit weaker. We anticipate a steady growth of fee and commission income in the Corporate Bank in the coming years. We will provide further details on November 17, but I expect to see continued upward momentum in the fourth quarter, possibly at a faster pace compared to our recent performance. In this business, we often compete for opportunities through requests for proposals, which gives us some insight into the upcoming activities in the Corporate Bank.
Christian Sewing, CEO
Let me add to the last point. I think James is making a really good observation. For example, in the case of Miles & More with Lufthansa, we have been investing in the transition to the Corporate Bank over the last two years. We are seeing progress in various areas, particularly in payment platforms with new technology. As James mentioned, I anticipate a slight increase in Q4 for the Corporate Bank. The investments we are making in the fee and commission business are accumulating, which is encouraging. More importantly, even though the Q3 numbers were slightly below consensus, the profitability of the Corporate Bank has increased. This shows that we are increasingly applying technology, making our processes more efficient, and improving our cost/income ratio. Overall, despite possibly not meeting revenue expectations, the progress in the Corporate Bank gives me a lot of confidence.
Stefan Stalmann, Analyst
I would like to follow up on the point that you made, Christian, regarding the Lufthansa credit card portfolio. I think that's now coming basically on board. Could you maybe remind us roughly of what kind of revenue impact we should expect there? And the second question relates to your very helpful disclosure of the daily trading P&L, Slide 26. You have now had a couple of quarters where you have very strong trading days very much at the end of the quarter or maybe one of the last 1 or 2 days of the quarter, around EUR 100 million often. Can you provide any color of what exactly is causing this kind of spike towards quarter end? Or is it a pure random walk?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Stefan, thank you. So I won't give you the detailed numbers because it's a one-to-one relationship, and we shouldn't do this. But a, we are in the middle of the transition from an IT point of view, I think this is very important because we talk about a large transition from one bank to the other. It's going actually very, very smoothly. We started with the pilot at the end of Q2. We have increased the volume then over Q3, and now we are in the middle of moving all clients actually to our offering and very, very encouraging start in October. Overall, it is clearly a revenue increment to the Corporate Bank, which is well in the double digits per year. And in my view, with more upside. And the more upside is actually the cross-selling, which we are able to do in our Global Hausbank from corporate to private clients. I mean this is the strength of Deutsche Bank that we can now actually apply that to 19 million private clients, and that's what we are going to do. Secondly, this is a signal to other operators with similar loyal cards and similar systems that Deutsche Bank can handle that, and that makes this business so attractive you think also when you think about other corporate clients.
James Von Moltke, CFO
And Stefan, it's a good observation that the markets revenues will often have a strong sort of quarter close. It depends on the quarters. But very often, it is essentially as we evaluate reserves, so day 1 P&L and illiquidity reserves and the like in the business that those determinations are made towards the end of a month or a quarter. That is kind of one of the reasons why guidance in the business isn't always perfect to do. But there's also events during those last, say, 10 trading dates that can influence the result that are part of the, as you say, the actual ebb and flow of the markets. And then there are also some quarters in which we have specific transactions that are taking place and through our systems that are, if you like, just happening to take place or designed to take place at the quarter end. This is a quarter where, in fact, we had all 3 of those things. So it was a very strong finish. But to your question, it's not entirely accidental that the quarter can finish strong, especially with the reserve releases. And some of this is difficult to predict precisely.
Nicolas Payen, Analyst
I have 2 questions, please. The first one will be on your structural hedging actually. Could you tell us how you think about your structural hedge supporting your NII trajectory for the next few years? Because at the end of the day, it's supposed to become a strengthening tailwind. So if you just could discuss how you think about it and also maybe with your strong deposit performance, especially in PB, could we see further notional increase supporting further your NII trajectory? And the second one would be on your loan development, especially on the investment bank has actually been very strong. And just wondering what drove that strong increase sequentially.
James Von Moltke, CFO
Nicolas, thank you. I would direct you to the disclosure on Page 24 of the deck, which outlines the hedge amount and the anticipated future benefits from it. We approach our Caterpillar strategy in a systematic manner, examining the assessed duration of the deposit books and the rollover of the hedges. This information is reflected in the disclosure. As the deposit books expand, particularly the Private Bank deposit book—which is modeled as having a longer tenure and is more euro-based than the corporate bank book—this dynamic increases. Essentially, what we are showing is the projected revenues from the hedge in the future, which will benefit from growth. Although we are treating it as a static portfolio, growth in deposits will enhance those revenues further. Additionally, I want to emphasize that we also take positions to anticipate deposit growth and protect against specific market conditions. Therefore, the strategy is more dynamic than just relying on a 10-year Caterpillar. Ultimately, this approach generates the revenues we are discussing. Regarding the loan growth in the Investment Bank, it has primarily stemmed from opportunities in the private credit portfolio this year, allowing us to effectively deploy our balance sheet. Furthermore, we have seen some growth in O&A as the business expands and activity increases, leading to further deployment in that area.
Thomas Hallett, Analyst
Firstly, I'm just wondering if there are any underperforming assets on your books, which may be deemed noncore? Because I can see some articles on the DWS data center sale in the pipes. There's previously been talked about India and possibly Poland. And secondly, maybe thinking a little bit ahead and possibly to the Investor Day, but will you look to run the business on a cost/income basis or an operating leverage basis or absolute basis? And what are the hurdle rates for allocating capital out to the businesses? And I kind of say that because I see the allocations continue to increase towards the Investment Bank.
James Von Moltke, CFO
So Tom, I'll take that, and Christian may want to add. First of all, I want to emphasize that I won’t discuss specific actions or events regarding potential exits until we have finalized our decisions. However, we are evaluating the businesses and have been focused on this since Q4, looking at shareholder value with a strong emphasis on optimizing our balance sheet to exceed performance thresholds and maintaining discipline in that regard. There are several approaches we can take, including pricing adjustments and reallocating capital internally. We are committed to that discipline and will provide more details on November 17 during the Investor Deep Dive.
Christian Sewing, CEO
I think you said it all. And the only thing is, Tom, I think we already started to implement that step by step. You have seen some action already in the German mortgage book where Claudio decided to exit sub businesses exactly for that reason. I think we are now in the position to do this, whether it's on the pricing side, whether it's on the more consequent capital allocation. So as James is saying, you will hear far more on that in November 17, but I can also tell you that we started to do that, and it shows the first very positive impacts like you see in the Private Bank.
Anke Reingen, Analyst
The first is just coming back on private credit. I mean, I guess you gave quite a lot of detail on the credit side. But can you sort of like give us an indication on how much the business has sort of like contributed to the top line business of private credit and driven the growth just in terms of is there could potentially be a risk if that area is becoming under more scrutiny? And then secondly, I know we have your Investor Day coming up in November, but just looking backwards and acknowledging 2025 isn't quite completed. But if you look back on the 2022 to 2025 plan, what are sort of like the lessons learned in terms of good and bad when you embark on your new plan?
James Von Moltke, CFO
The second question is a broad one that I may direct to Christian, but we both have insights to share from the past few years. I want to highlight the financing revenues in the FIC section on Page 15. Of course, it's not solely about private credit; there are other revenue sources included, such as commission and fee income from asset distribution. This could involve asset-backed facilities or warehousing of CMBS before they are issued. There are multiple activities happening. Regarding the risk aspect, this is a banking book business, which we find appealing due to its stable revenues, predictable spreads, and manageable risk profile. As we prepared for this call, we considered whether we've experienced any risk or loss events within the discussed portfolios. We've concluded that we have strong intellectual property. There is a potential risk to the business from cyclical challenges, but honestly, given the nature of our operations, we don't perceive significant risk, and we have maintained a disciplined and consistent risk appetite over the years. In summary, we are satisfied with the business and believe in our capacity to grow, but we will approach growth cautiously and responsibly regarding risk.
Christian Sewing, CEO
Look, Anke, really good question. And I actually need to think a little bit longer about that. But let me start with 2 or 3 lessons learned from a good point of view, from a good side, and then I'll give you also one where I think we could have done better. Number one, remember when we did this, that was 10 days after Russia invaded Ukraine. And a lot of people told us, don't go for an IDD, and we did it. And that shows our underlying confidence in this bank, the strength of this bank, that the Global Hausbank is exactly the right strategy and that we continue with that IDD. And to be honest, I'm really proud of this organization, what they have delivered in those years, which were full of uncertainties, but they kept to the plan. The team worked very, very hard. And I think it was at the end of the day, exactly the right decision to go out. And that was the first thing that if you are convinced with something, you should also be courageous, and we did this, and it was the right thing. Number two, lesson learned whenever you do an IDD, you need to take your team on a journey. And it's not only, so to say, for the market and for you, but it's also something where you need to motivate 90,000 people. And I think we did this. Can we do even that in a better way? Yes. And we learned some lessons, and you will see it then on November 17 when we talk about how we carry that out internally because it's a story not only for the market, but for our people because our people are driving this bank. Number three, I think the Global Hausbank strategy in itself, huge success. And as I said, we can see that it's developing better and better from quarter to quarter because people want to have their anchor in times of uncertainty, and that's actually we are that European answer to that. Number four, with certain, so to say, portfolio decisions, we could have been more consequential, I would say. And that is certainly a lesson which we have learned. And you know what, there is now time to correct that. And therefore, I'm looking forward to the next IDD.
Chris Hallam, Analyst
I have two questions. The first one is about capital. We have a headline CET1 of 14.5% and a pro forma of 14% considering Article 468 and the operational risk challenges you've mentioned. We expect to generate around 20 to 25 basis points of capital through retained earnings in Q4, finishing the year around 14.2% to 14.3%. You indicated a target of around 14%, so I wonder if there are any additional factors to consider in Q4, possibly regarding RWAs or an accrual rate above 50%. Also, can you share any early insights for next year? I'm trying to understand your position heading into the Q4 numbers for the AGM. The second question is a follow-up to your earlier comments, Christian. In the Private Bank, we've seen an increase in deposits but a decrease in loans this year. What is your forecast for how this trend will develop in the next few quarters and throughout next year, particularly with interest rates decreasing, making borrowing more affordable, and the economy improving? I know you've been investing in digital capabilities, but you're also focused on maintaining capital discipline. I'm looking for your thoughts on balancing these aspects.
James Von Moltke, CFO
Thank you, Chris. It's James. I'll address the first topic, and Christian will cover the second. Currently, the only seasonal aspect we have is the share repurchases related to equity compensation in the first quarter. This quarter typically has the strongest earnings. Aside from that, it boils down to the math of organic or net income minus the 50% payout assumption, adjusted for growth or demand in our businesses. There are times when we overestimate demand, leading to excess capital. However, we aim to support our businesses and clients with capital deployment, so we intend to be cautious in our capital planning to maintain the flexibility to grow. We've seen many changes in rules and methodologies over the years, but I expect this to slow down now that we're in CRR, making it less common. I want to be cautious with forward-looking statements since there's a lot at play here. However, our internal capital generation, when analyzed, has typically been around 25 to 30 basis points. The key question is how all these factors will play out in the future. In summary, we believe we are well-positioned to generate excess capital and do so at an increasingly faster pace in the coming years.
Christian Sewing, CEO
Look, Chris, on the Private Bank, we clearly have our plans to continue to grow deposits and use that kind of attractive funding to replace more expensive sources. On the business overall, I would say we expect flat loan growth in Private Bank overall. Now clearly, some growth to see in Wealth Management. I think it's an attractive area where we can actually grow, and we have plans to do so. In other areas in the Private Bank when it comes to mortgages, I would say it's rather flattish because, again, we are absolutely measuring that portfolio via SVA. And if it's not value accretive, we won't grow that. And overall, in the Private Bank, like I said before, Chris, if you look out longer for the next 3, 4, 5 years, the real big upside in the Private Bank is on the asset gathering business and on the investment business. And not only with our market position in wealth management, but in particular, when it comes to retail and personal banking. And that's all tied to the plans of the German government because you will see that next to the state pension, there is a necessity that on the private side, people need to do more, and this is where we are looking into. There, we are working on a digital offer. There, we are working on offers for retail clients to grow that business. And if you think about our Postbank clients, which are the majority of the retail clients and their access to those products, it's actually, for the time being, not very much used, and that shows the opportunities we have in that business. So our focus when it comes to the Private Bank is clearly on the asset gathering side.
Jeremy Sigee, Analyst
Just a couple of follow-ups, please, on the Private Bank and the Corporate Bank. On the Private Bank, you talked about further cost savings. Are there any step change cost saves still to come through in the Private Bank, particularly from integration-related or system takeout? Any step change? Or is it just incremental process efficiency kind of bit by bit from here? And then second question on the Corporate Bank. You mentioned growth in trade finance year-on-year. And I just wondered what areas that was coming from? Is it Germany, Rest of World, any particular industry sectors?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Jeremy, on the Private Bank, to be honest, let's also wait for the IDD because you get a quite good outlook for the next 3 years, what we are doing there. But it's a continuous improvement. Continuous improvement from actions which we have started to implement. If you think about the plan how to reduce branches and make that business more digital for our clients, then this is something which you plan in '23, '24. And we now see the effects. And therefore, I'm so happy actually with the quarter-over-quarter cost takeout Claudio can do in particular in the personal bank, but that is going to continue because we know already now how many branches we close in '26 and later on. Secondly, we are working constantly on straight-through processing, and that is with regard to payments, that is with regard to the lending process, that is with regard to the investment process. And that is the reason why we have changed the bank initiatives and investments, and you will see that as obviously then cost efficiencies going forward. So I would expect a continuous improvement on that side, but more details in the IDD.
James Von Moltke, CFO
And Jeremy, I'm not aware on the trade finance question, I'm not aware of any particular sort of trend or concentration that we're seeing in terms of where the growth is coming from. You'll recall that we've been sort of waiting for the growth from the balances. We kind of were stuck at that kind of 115 level. We do now begin to see some growth. And the place where our emphasis is in structured trade finance. And so that's really the business that we're seeking to grow.
Mate Nimtz, Analyst
Yes. Just 3 shorter questions, please. The first one would be on the IB. In the cost base, G&A expenses show about a EUR 100 million increase quarter-on-quarter. I'm aware that some of that is some pickup in nonoperating items, litigation. But any further explanation on that step-up? And how should we think about the year-end from this perspective? Then the second question is still mainly staying with the IB commercial real estate. Could you give us an update on that asset class on that part of the book? Provisions are still at a high level, particularly Stage 3. I think in the commentary, you called out on the slides, West Coast defaulted assets still. Any thoughts you can share on the outlook in Q4 and next year would be helpful. And just the last one on the Private Bank, and I'm cognizant this is something you'll talk about, hopefully, in 2.5 weeks. But we are seeing a return on tangible equity now firmly above 10% for the second quarter in a row, 12.6% in Q3, impressive step-up from a mid-single-digit level in the previous couple of quarters, and that's without much movement, obviously, on lending. Is this the bare minimum level we should be having in mind as a base going into 2026? And any further improvement on the cost side or coming from investment products will offer the upside. Is that the right way to think about it?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Thank you for your question. I take the last one. Look, we clearly expect further operating leverage in the Private Bank, and we will talk about that in 2.5 weeks' time. But very happy that we are above 10%. That's what we promised you. That's what we delivered. And from here, the way is up.
James Von Moltke, CFO
Regarding the investment banking cost base, there isn't much to highlight. We did record a bank levy in the third quarter, which is primarily assigned to investment banking, along with some minor increases in professional services and market data costs. However, nothing significant stands out. As for commercial real estate, we've been discussing this for over two years. There has been a cycle leading us close to the severe stress levels we previously indicated for the stress-tested portfolio. While I am hesitant to declare this cycle over, I believe we are still in for some provisions that will arise gradually. These provisions tend to be valuation adjustments on already defaulted positions, which are becoming more concentrated, particularly in the office portfolio on the West Coast, as we noted last quarter. As this situation stabilizes, I anticipate a decline in these issues over the next few quarters. Moreover, we've observed some signs of recovery; although I remain cautious about the East Coast, the office sector has seen significant improvement, and other areas of commercial real estate, apart from offices, have been robust. Thus, we view this as a process of healing.
Kian Abouhossein, Analyst
Regarding commercial real estate, if I examine the Stage 3 loans in the investment banking sector, I believe that's where some of the issues have emerged. Can you provide more details about whether this involves several loans or just one or two loans with default issues? Concerning the outlook, I noticed the comment on the following page indicating that advanced stages of the downturn have been reached, but there are still headwinds in the U.S. office sector, especially since a large portion of your portfolio is office-related. What gives you confidence in your previous statement about expecting improvement despite the low coverage levels? Additionally, regarding the outlook for risk-weighted assets, how should we view this? Will it remain relatively stable going forward, or do you anticipate growth despite potential further optimizations that might result in a flat number?
James Von Moltke, CFO
Thank you for the follow-up, Kian. There are only a few loans, probably less than ten this quarter, that have experienced valuation changes. I've been monitoring the number of loans that are due for refinancing or extensions, and it appears that these are starting to slow down, which indicates a potential shift in the market. I want to remain cautious, as we have previously thought we reached a bottom only to find out it wasn't the case. It does seem like we are in the late stages of this down cycle in commercial real estate. Regarding risk-weighted assets, we would like to see healthy growth driven by business and client demand. Our capital plans are designed to support that growth. However, we will also continue to focus on efficiency and portfolio optimization over time, which we believe can enhance revenue-to-risk-weighted asset ratios and improve capital utilization. This should help balance out any unweighted growth in the balance sheet and business.
Ioana Patriniche, Head of Investor Relations
So it looks like there are no more questions at this time. And I would like to turn the conference back over to Ioana Patriniche for any closing remarks. Thank you for joining us and for your questions. For any follow-ups, please come through to the Investor Relations team, and we look forward to speaking to you at our fourth quarter call.
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded, and you may disconnect. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.