Earnings Call Transcript
DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (DB)
Earnings Call Transcript - DB Q2 2024
Operator, Operator
Thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2024 results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website, db.com. Before we get started, let me just remind you that the presentation contains forward-looking statements which may not develop as it currently exists. We therefore ask you to take notice of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials. With that, let me hand over to Christian. Back to you on our end.
Christian Sewing, CEO
A warm welcome from me. I'm delighted to be discussing our second quarter and first half results with you today. After another quarter where we made progress across the businesses and on our strategic initiatives, we are on track to hit our financial targets. We generated revenues of EUR15.4 billion in the first half, on track to EUR30 billion of revenues this year. We have franchise momentum across all businesses, driving commissions and fee income. Our capital-light businesses are gaining market share such as our Corporate Bank and Origination & Advisory, which we expect to continue in the second half alongside a more supportive net interest income environment. We also delivered on our adjusted cost target; our quarterly run rate is at EUR5 billion, in line with our commitments. Our results were impacted by the litigation provision of EUR1.3 billion related to the acquisition of Postbank, which we had to book this quarter. As said before, we strongly disagree with the changed and unexpected assessment of the court, and we are working hard to ultimately minimize the impact of this legal matter for our shareholders. But importantly, the bank's operational performance was not impacted. On the contrary, on an underlying basis, we delivered year-on-year improvements on our key target ratios. Excluding the Postbank takeover litigation provision, our post-tax return on tangible equity was 7.8%, up from 6.8% in the first half last year. This is the best first half and second quarter since 2011, which demonstrates the continued momentum in our operating businesses. Our cost-to-income ratio also improved from 73% to 69% year on year. And finally, our Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.5% remains solid despite absorbing Postbank and a number of legacy litigation matters, which shows our capital strength and gives us confidence to deliver on our capital distribution commitments. Let me now discuss in more detail some of the drivers of our first half results on slide 2. Pre-provision profit was up 17% year on year to EUR4.7 billion. Excluding the impact of the Postbank takeover litigation provision, we also demonstrated positive operating leverage, a core element of our strategy execution. We grew revenues in our core businesses by 3% year on year, while Group revenues were up 2%. On a reported basis, our reported noninterest revenues were up 14% year on year with strong growth in commissions and fee income of 12%, which clearly demonstrates that our strategy to grow our capital-light business is working and we continue to deliver better than expected net interest income performance in our banking books, which provides additional comfort to our revenue path for 2024 and in years thereafter. We reduced our adjusted cost to EUR10.1 billion year on year, and we continue to deliver savings through our operational efficiency program, which I will discuss in more detail in a moment. Now let's look at the franchise achievements across our businesses on Slide 3. In the first half year, the Corporate Bank delivered a 16% increase in incremental deals won with multinational clients compared to the prior year period. Our success with our clients was also rewarded with a series of high-profile awards, and we have continued to make investments to further strengthen our positioning with our clients. We are building out our structuring capabilities and our originate-to-distribute model, taking advantage of our broad investor base. All of that gives us confidence we can sustain our momentum. The Investment Bank made significant advances across the franchise over the first half of the year. Origination & Advisory increased its global market share to 2.6% in the first half year, a gain of more than 70 basis points over the full year 2023. And we raised our global ranking from the 11th to the seventh. Business continued to support clients through its multifaceted product offering, including M&A and sell side advice, as well as debt issuance linked to the partnership between Grant Thornton and New Mountain Capital. Fixed income and currency revenues were up 3% year on year, supported by a 7% increase in financing revenues even compared to a strong prior year period. The Private Bank also continued to build momentum with EUR19 billion of net inflows in the first six months, supporting growth in assets under management of EUR34 billion. We are also seeing recognition for our transformation and digitalization efforts in our retail personal banking franchise with 13% more log-ins in the Postbank mobile app since the end of 2023. We are also improving services for our ultra-high-net-worth clients, and for example, have established a dedicated team in Germany for ultra-high-net-worth clients. We are leveraging our enhanced technology and product capabilities to expand into FX products, strategic asset allocation, or Lombard lending to ultra-high-net-worth clients in Europe. Additionally, we have further developed our key client relationships to boost asset gathering in the first half year. Asset Management grew assets under management by EUR37 billion to EUR933 billion. This was boosted by continued strong inflows into passive, in line with our strategy, which saw net inflows of EUR18 billion in the first six months and is expected to support future revenue generation. Now let me turn to our progress against our strategic objectives. On slide 4, we continued to make progress on all three pillars of our global house bank strategy. Starting with revenue growth, we delivered a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% since 2021. This underscores the benefit of a well-diversified and complementary business mix. Stable net interest income in our banking book segments was supported by strong non-interest revenues following our investments in our growth initiatives. Looking at the drivers behind commissions and fee income strength in the first six months, we saw growth mainly in our capital-light businesses. We saw particularly strong momentum in Origination & Advisory as the market recovered and our franchise is strengthening and gaining market share, a trend we expect to continue. Our initiatives in the Corporate Bank are also paying off; commissions and fee income grew by 6% with business growth across all regions, which is notably visible in trade finance and lending. We gained market share in our documentary trade business and our structuring capabilities are expanding, which includes increasing contributions from larger transition financing deals. In wealth management and private banking, we grew non-interest revenues from investment products and lending by 11%. We will continue to build on these developments, and with business volumes growing, we are confident that our revenue trajectory will remain strong in the second half of the year. First, the impact from the expected net interest income normalization will be lower than initially anticipated with full year net interest income in our banking book segment broadly stable to the prior year level, and we will see continued commissions and fee income growth, mainly in Origination & Advisory, Corporate Bank, and Asset Management. This puts revenues of EUR30 billion clearly in sight. Additionally, we are highly focused on targeted resource allocation and on driving balance sheet velocity. We continue to deliver on our EUR2.5 billion operational efficiency program, having completed measures that delivered our expected gross savings of EUR1.5 billion, 60% of our target, with around EUR1.2 billion in savings already realized. As part of this program, we have made workforce reductions of 2,700, including 700 full-time equivalents during the second quarter, reaching nearly 80% of the planned total through the end of 2024. In addition, we have reduced contract external staff by approximately 1,100 in 2024. To date, we have clear sight of the remaining savings yet to come from our operational efficiency program, which will offset inflation in our investments in business growth. Our optimization initiatives in Germany are expected to generate savings of around EUR500 million; investments to reduce the complexity of our organization by improving technology and optimizing the workforce across infrastructure will deliver a further EUR550 million, and automation of processes alongside better alignment of our front-to-back setup, including the recent organizational changes, will deliver another EUR250 million. This gives us further confidence that we are on track to deliver on our commitment of a quarterly run rate of adjusted cost of around EUR5 billion in 2024, and that we will further reduce this run rate closer to EUR4.9 billion by the end of the year to meet our noninterest expense objectives of around EUR20 billion. Finally, on capital efficiency, we achieved a beneficial equal to a EUR4 billion RWA reduction in the second quarter through data and process improvements. As a result, cumulative RWA reductions from capital efficiency measures reached already EUR19 billion. We have a line of sight on further reductions coming in the second half, and we are working towards meeting or exceeding our EUR25 billion to EUR30 billion target. Let me conclude with a few words on our strategy on Slide 5. Our first half results represent another milestone in the progress with our global house bank strategy and set a path to achieving our 2025 target of greater than 10% return on tangible equity. First, we saw strong momentum across all businesses in a more mixed operating environment than we had expected, with a better than expected net interest income trajectory, coupled with our complementary and growing global franchise. We are confident that our strong revenue momentum will deliver revenues of EUR30 billion this year. The investments we have made in our business give us confidence that this run rate will continue as around 75% of revenues come from more predictable base businesses. Moreover, we are the go-to European bank for our clients and will continue to build on it by offering clients full service product and solutions. This builds our confidence that we can achieve our 2025 target of EUR32 billion. Second, we are delivering operational efficiencies that maintain our EUR5 billion run rate in 2024 and will translate into further cost savings, achieving EUR20 billion of noninterest expenses in 2025. Simply put, our revenue growth, combined with our cost reductions, will ensure positive operating leverage. Third, we have put material legacy items behind us. Although this results in higher litigation charges this year, the progress we are making should position us to deliver without major surprises in 2025. Fourth, we will see normalization in credit costs next year, closer to the underlying run rate we have this year after overlays and hedging, which will further bolster higher net income. We remain dedicated to creating value for our shareholders. Our earnings power and the progress we have made with capital optimization give us full confidence that we can maintain our trajectory to increase distributions beyond our original goal of EUR8 billion. In respect of the financial years 2021 to 2025, we completed the share repurchase program launched in March, bringing cumulative shareholder distributions through dividends and share repurchases to EUR3.3 billion since 2022. We will continue to manage capital with the same discipline as over the past several years. To sum up, with our business momentum and all the progress made, we have a clear line of sight on our target for return on tangible equity of greater than 10% for 2025. With that, let me hand over to James.
James von Moltke, CFO
Thank you, Christian. Let me start with a few key performance indicators on Slide 7 and place that in the context of our 2025 targets. Christian mentioned our continued business momentum, which resulted in revenue growth of 5.7% on a compound basis for the last 12 months relative to 2021. Within our revenue growth target range, our reported half year cost income ratio was 78% and return on tangible equity was 3.9%, both impacted by the Postbank takeover litigation provision; excluding this provision, the ratios were 69% and 7.8%, showing further improvement compared to 2023. Our capital position remained solid in the second quarter with a CET1 ratio at 13.5% despite absorbing the aforementioned litigation provision. Our liquidity metrics also remained strong. The liquidity coverage ratio was 136%, above our target of around 130%, and the net stable funding ratio was 122%. In short, our performance in the period reaffirms our resilience and our confidence in reaching our 2025 targets. With that, let me turn to the second quarter highlights on Slide 8. Group revenues were EUR7.6 billion, up 2% on the second quarter of 2023. Non-interest expenses were EUR6.7 billion, up 20% year on year, driven by the increased litigation charges in the quarter. Nonoperating costs, including litigation charges of EUR1.55 billion; beyond the Postbank takeover litigation provision of EUR1.3 billion, there were additional charges of approximately EUR220 million related to a series of legacy items we resolved in the quarter. We also booked EUR106 million of restructuring and severance charges in line with our full year guidance. Adjusted costs increased 2% year on year due to higher compensation and benefits. Provision for credit losses was EUR476 million or 40 basis points of average loans, and I will discuss both adjusted costs and provisions in more detail shortly. We generated a profit before tax of EUR411 million and a net profit of EUR52 million. Our tax rate in the quarter of 87% was impacted by the aforementioned litigation charges, which were largely nondeductible. Excluding these litigation effects, the expected tax rate for the full year continues to be around 30%. In the second quarter, diluted earnings per share was negative $0.28 and tangible book value per share was EUR28.65, up 6% year on year. Let me now turn to some of the drivers of these results. Let me start with a review of our net interest income on Slide 9. It was essentially flat across all of our key banking book segments at EUR3.4 billion, slightly above prior expectations. Each of the banking book segments followed the same trends as seen in the prior quarter. Our base case is that our quarterly net interest income run rate will remain broadly stable, and we reiterate that we expect to improve on our earlier guidance for the full year banking book net interest income. The group number, reflecting accounting effects, decreased by approximately EUR100 million compared to the previous quarter. This effect is offset by an increase in noninterest revenues and has no overall revenue impact to the group. With that, let's turn to adjusted cost development on Slide 10. Adjusted costs were EUR5 billion for the quarter, up 2% year on year. The year-on-year increase was driven by higher compensation and benefits costs, which were up by 6%, reflecting higher performance-related compensation, wage growth as expected, and increases in internal workforce after our targeted investments in talent throughout 2023, including numerous strategic hires. Let's now turn to provision for credit losses on Slide 11. Provision for credit losses in the second quarter was EUR476 million, equivalent to 40 basis points of average loans. The sequential increase in Stage one and two provisions to EUR35 million was mainly driven by the net effect of overlays and model enhancements, which were partly mitigated by quarter-on-quarter portfolio movements. Stage three provisions remained at an elevated level but reduced slightly to EUR441 million. The decrease was mainly driven by the private bank, while provisions in the investment bank remained stable and were largely related to commercial real estate exposures. Provisions in the Corporate Bank increased, driven by two larger impairment events. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we are now seeing some stabilization in the broader U.S. commercial real estate sector. Overall, this should lead to lower provisions compared to the first half, but our office commercial real estate portfolio will continue to be impacted. We also continue to conservatively manage our loan book with lower growth rates, including active management of single-name concentration risks through well-established comprehensive hedging programs. Reflecting on these items and considering developments in the first half of the year, we revised our full year guidance for provision for credit losses to be slightly above 30 basis points of average loans. Before we move to performance in our businesses, let me turn to capital on Slide 12. With 13.5%, our second quarter Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was up slightly compared to the previous quarter. CET1 capital improved slightly, reflecting lower regulatory capital deduction items and strong net income for the quarter, largely offset by the Postbank takeover litigation provision. Risk-weighted assets increased from business growth together with higher operational risk RWA, including the impact of the Postbank takeover litigation provision, mostly offset by reductions from strong delivery of capital efficiency measures. At the end of the second quarter, our leverage ratio was 4.6%, 13 basis points higher compared to the previous quarter. With that, let's now turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on Slide 14. Corporate Bank revenues in the second quarter were EUR1.9 billion, essentially flat year-on-year and up sequentially driven by growth in commissions and fee income and resilient deposit revenues as higher business volumes compensated for higher client payouts. We have seen good progress on our growth initiatives to offset the normalization of deposit revenues by further accelerating non-interest revenue growth. Commissions and fee income increased by 5% sequentially and 9% year on year, driven by strong momentum in trade finance and lending across all products as well as in depositary receipts in our trust and agency services business. Deposits increased by EUR3 billion in the quarter and are EUR32 billion higher year on year, driven by higher term and sight deposits across currencies. The sequential increase in provision for credit losses was driven by Stage one and two provisions after moderate releases in the prior quarter, and higher Stage three provisions, which included two larger events in the European and German corporate segment that were largely covered by risk mitigating measures. Noninterest expenses were essentially flat year on year as higher internal service cost allocations and compensation costs were mostly offset by lower litigation costs. This resulted in a post-tax return on tangible equity of 15% and a cost-income ratio of 62%. I'll now turn to the Investment Bank on Slide 15. Revenues for the second quarter were 10% higher year on year, driven by strong performance in Origination & Advisory revenues. Fixed income and currency revenues were essentially flat year on year, reflecting the base effect of a strong prior year quarter. Financing, credit trading, and emerging markets' revenues were essentially flat year on year in credit trading, the non-repeat of strong distressed performance in the prior year was offset by strength in the flow business. Thanks to our prior period investments, the macro businesses were both down year on year; the performance in rates primarily reflected the ongoing uncertainty around Central Bank interest rate policies, while FX revenues were impacted by reduced volatility, partially mitigated by strong performance in the spot business, benefiting from investments into technology. Moving to Origination & Advisory revenues, they doubled compared to the prior year, gaining market share both year on year and sequentially, while we maintained the number one rank in our home market. Debt origination continued to drive performance with an ongoing recovery in the leveraged debt market. While investment grade debt issuance activity remained elevated, advisory revenues were strong and materially higher both year on year and quarter on quarter, benefiting from the previously highlighted investments made into the franchise. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by our third quarter Origination & Advisory pipeline, which is materially higher year on year. Although the anticipated slowdown in M&A may limit the possibility to outperform the very strong second quarter, noninterest expenses and adjusted costs were both slightly higher year on year, reflecting the impact of strategic investments, including numerous acquisitions. Provision for credit losses was EUR163 million or 63 basis points of average loans driven by Stage three impairments. Turning to the Private Bank on Slide 16. Pretax profit nearly doubled compared to the second quarter last year. Let me walk you through the drivers. Revenues in the quarter were EUR2.3 billion. This includes higher revenues from investment products and lending, which were more than offset by continued higher funding costs, including the impact of minimum reserves and the group-neutral impact of certain hedging costs to the business. Excluding these effects, revenues would have been up by 1% year on year. The sequential revenue development reflects a typical seasonal pattern as some investment activities tend to be concentrated at the beginning of the year. As Christian mentioned before, the Private Bank saw strong business momentum with net inflows into assets under management of EUR7 billion in the quarter. Personal Banking revenues were impacted by the aforementioned higher funding and hedging costs for our lending books, partially offset by resilient deposit revenues in Germany. Revenues in wealth management and private banking increased due to higher lending business and investment revenues offset by lower deposit revenues in Germany. The Private Bank has continued its transformation with 38 branch closures in the first half of the year and headcount reductions of more than 1,000 FTEs. In the last 12 months, noninterest expenses declined by 13%, including lower restructuring and severance costs and the non-recurrence of provisions for individual litigation cases. The improvement in adjusted cost of 3% reflects normalized investment spend and transformation benefits, partially offset by still elevated service remediation costs. We expect these to taper off in the remainder of the year, contributing positively to a run rate improvement in the second half of the year. The overall quality of our portfolio remained stable. Provision for credit losses benefited from a gain on the sale of a nonperforming loan portfolio, but still includes the temporary effects of the operational backlog in personal banking, which are expected to reduce during the second half. Let me continue with Asset Management on Slide 17. My usual reminder: the asset management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS stand-alone financials. Profit before tax improved by 55% from the prior year period, driven by higher revenues and lower noninterest expenses. Revenues increased by 7% versus the prior year. This was primarily from higher management fees of EUR613 million, resulting from higher fees generated by liquid products due to increasing average assets under management. Other revenues were significantly higher, benefiting from lower treasury funding charges and a one-off insurance recovery in the quarter. Performance and transaction fees were significantly lower, driven by performance fees and alternatives. Real estate noninterest expenses were 4% lower due to lower litigation expenses in the quarter, while adjusted costs were essentially flat compared to the prior year. Despite inflationary pressures, passive investments saw a net inflow of EUR9 billion in the quarter due to shifting consumer behavior from active into passive investment strategies. Digital channel distribution is supporting strong growth in passive products, resulting in positive momentum and six consecutive quarters of net inflows. Assets under management decreased by EUR8 billion to EUR933 billion in the quarter. The decrease was attributable to net outflows despite positive market appreciation and foreign exchange effects. Net outflows of EUR19 billion were primarily in low margin products in fixed income, cash, and advisory services. The cost-income ratio for the quarter declined to 68%, and return on tangible equity was 18%, both improving from the prior year quarter. Moving to Corporate and Other on slide 18, Corporate & Other reported a pretax loss of EUR1.5 billion this quarter versus the equivalent pretax loss of EUR153 million in the second quarter of 2023, primarily driven by the Postbank takeover litigation provision of EUR1.3 billion. Revenues were positive EUR73 million this quarter. This compares to positive EUR85 million in the prior year quarter. Valuation and timing differences were positive EUR216 million in the quarter, driven by the partial reversion of prior period losses and impacts from interest rate moves. This compares to positive EUR252 million in the prior year quarter. The pretax loss associated with legacy portfolios was EUR144 million, driven primarily by litigation charges and other expenses. At the end of the second quarter, risk-weighted assets stood at EUR32 billion, including EUR13 billion of operational risk RWA. In aggregate, RWAs have reduced by EUR9 billion since the prior year quarter. Leverage exposure was EUR36 billion at the end of the second quarter, slightly higher than the prior year quarter. Finally, let me turn to the group outlook on Slide 19. Second quarter and first half performance demonstrate the successful execution of our strategy, and we remain confident that our businesses have strong momentum and are positioned for further growth. So our full year 2024 guidance for revenues and adjusted costs have not changed, respectively, at EUR30 billion and around EUR20 billion. Provision for credit losses for the year are now expected to come in slightly above 30 basis points of average loans. Finally, we have successfully mitigated several headwinds to our capital position, which supports our distribution plan, and this remains a key management priority. As Christian said, our full focus remains on the execution of our strategy, and the progress made in 2024 positions us well to achieve our 2025 targets.
Operator, Operator
Thank you, James. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.
Operator, Operator
The first question comes from Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs International.
Chris Hallam, Analyst
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the presentation and the remarks. So the first question is on revenues. I guess on a headline basis, the momentum is positive, but the mix is changing a little bit more on net interest income, perhaps a little bit less on fees outside of the Investment Bank. So if we look through for the EUR30 billion for this year and EUR32 billion for next year, are you confident on those two numbers in particular? How would you see fees progressing both inside and outside of the Investment Bank? And then second, could you give us an update on where your discussions have got to with the ECB regarding any additional capital requirements relating to your leveraged finance business and how you see the outlook for your franchise over the coming couple of years?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Thank you, Chris. That's a very good question. Let me start, and as usual, James may want to chip in on your first question on revenues and on kind of your key question, both numbers for 2024 and 2025. The answer is a clear 'yes'. Let me start with 2024, and you have seen the H1 numbers. To be honest, I'm really happy with that, with the EUR15.4 billion, because all businesses have actually delivered. The nice thing is, if I now go over the next quarters, let me start with the predictable or more predictable divisions, i.e., the Corporate Bank, the Private Bank, and Asset Management, you can actually see that the momentum and the numbers which we have seen in the first two quarters are very, very good guidance for Q3 and Q4. I would even say that for the Private Bank and Asset Management, I even expect a slightly better development in H2 versus H1, given also what James said in his prepared remarks on net interest income, but also in particular because of the inflows and the assets under management behaving in a very satisfactory way. On the Corporate Bank, I think a number of you know which is around EUR1.9 billion given all the mandates we win is something which we can also plan for Q3 and Q4. Those three divisions are really having good momentum, and yes, we benefit a bit more from a better net interest income than we expected at the start of the year. Even next to that, the underlying fee business is behaving very well on the Investment Banking side. I absolutely believe that overall, the trajectory which we have seen over the last years in terms of market share wins, stability of revenues, and predictability of revenues shows me that the second half will be a very satisfactory one. Honestly, July started so far pretty good in the Investment Bank. What makes me confident in the Origination & Advisory business could be that the summer is a little bit slower in terms of M&A business than what we have seen in Q2. But overall, the market will further recover. We have gained 70 basis points in market share in the first half year. We believe that this will also be the case throughout the year. To be honest, the investments which we have done in Origination & Advisory are really only starting to pay off. So I even expect that we get more market share in an overall market, which from a fee pool is increasing over the next 12 to 18 months. So that makes me confident that starting with the EUR15.4 billion revenue number, that EUR30 billion is absolutely in sight, and I'm highly confident that we will achieve that. Now for 2025, the first thing I would like to say is that, for the first time, both net interest income and fee income are going into an increasing direction. I would say that we think that 2025 would be another increase over 2024 because we can simply see the number of mandates and transactions we are doing and the investments which we have made, particularly in our platform business and in our payment businesses are paying off. Therefore, we gave you in the prepared remarks the wins which we had in Q2, all that and the feedback we have from our clients points to another increase in 2025. We don’t believe that there is any change for the second half of the year. In summarizing the outlook, I am confident that we can achieve the EUR32 billion target next year. On the second question concerning the ECB, I have observed our leverage lending portfolio now for the last 15 years. To be honest, it has always behaved very well because I think our risk appetite and the way we have managed our risk has demonstrated that we are in very good control of that business. You also know, Chris, that a few years ago, we had started the discussions with the ECB. We got a capital add-on at that point in time of 20 basis points, which was reduced last year by 5 basis points. I know that there is a discussion between the industry and the ECB. I take it as a very positive signal that the ECB is now reviewing the comments and our arguments from the industry. I feel very confident with the level of provisions we have, with the way we manage it because it’s a key business for us. I am sure we will also come to a solution that shows that we have managed the portfolio in a fair way. I don't know whether James wants to add anything.
James von Moltke, CFO
All good.
Chris Hallam, Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Nicolas Payen from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Nicolas Payen, Analyst
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I have two: one on distribution and one on litigations. On distribution, I was wondering if we could have an update on what your total distribution targets are? Because you committed to distribute above EUR8 billion of capital, but could we have a bit more clarity on how much you expect to exceed this EUR8 billion mark? Also, timing-wise, what should we expect, notably for the share buyback? Is a top-up completely excluded for H2, and what about the pace in 2025? Regarding litigation, what should we expect regarding the litigation provision in H2? More globally, you have now reduced quite significantly your turnkey or contingent liabilities. Should we expect a lower litigation cost run rate for the future?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Thank you very much. Let me start, Nicolas, and then James will comment on both questions regarding distribution because that is really important for me. There is no change in guidance. We will distribute more than EUR8 billion in the timeframe from 2021 to 2025. Nothing has changed, obviously, from a timing point of view, as we said at the end of April with the item on the Postbank provision of EUR1.3 billion, which we had to digest. We always said that we now need to have two quarters actually where we show operating strengths and restore capital. To be honest, I'm really happy with what has been done in this bank. We are at 13.5% capital, and we have created excess capital. In the last quarter, we are clearly above the 13.2%. We have created excess capital, but I want to show the market another quarter of this operating strength. With the comments I just made on revenues and costs, which are absolutely in control, we are around the EUR5 billion run rate, and I have a clear path towards next year. I’m confident we will show another very strong quarter in Q3, which will generate capital. After that, we will re-enter discussions on distributions.
James von Moltke, CFO
Thanks, Christian. Nicolas, thanks for the question. Look, I'd just echo Christian's comments. We've returned almost EUR1.6 billion already this year through the capital actions that we took in the second quarter. We were very successful offsetting the impact of the Postbank provision and our step off into the second half of 13.5% on the CET1 ratio is a good starting place. Your question about the trajectory going forward, if I refer you to slide 22 of our investor deck, we've tried to be as clear as possible on what we've referred to as baseline expectations. If you look at that on the dividend: we've paid out this year EUR883 million and the dividend of $0.675 next year would be about EUR1.3 billion. The EUR1 dividend that we intend to pay out in 2026 in respect of 2025 would be another nearly EUR2 billion. If you trace the buyback trajectory forward, and let's assume for a second a 50% increase a year, the next two numbers in that series would be about EUR1 billion and EUR1.5 billion cumulatively adding to slightly above EUR9 billion. So that's what we're working to deliver to shareholders as Christian mentioned. We're building excess capital in the back half of the year to be in a position to achieve those payout expectations. The top-ups may be absent for 2024, but we haven't given up on top-ups in 2025 and 2026.
Christian Sewing, CEO
Regarding litigation provisions, there has been a transition between the contingent liability number and the balance sheet provision driven by the Postbank litigation takeover provision. Although not only that provision, some other items also moved between the off-balance sheet and on-balance sheet accounts. The profile has changed significantly; we are committed to reducing litigation provisions and regulatory enforcement actions going forward. At the end of the year, we want to have as clean a slate as possible going into 2025. We are addressing the known elements of the known items and monitoring the pipeline for new issues.
Nicolas Payen, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Anke Reingen from RBC.
Anke Reingen, Analyst
Thank you very much for taking my questions. The first is on the loan loss guidance for 2024. If you can maybe give us a bit more clarity on what gives you confidence of the decline? More like 25 to 30 basis points in the second half, and what you've assumed on commercial real estate? In 2025, do you expect loan losses to normalize? Would that be a 25 to 30 basis points or that 20 basis points you mentioned in the past? And just on CapEx, if you can give us clarity on the expectation with the benefit from the delay of the FRTB., what it could mean for the EUR15 billion you previously guided? Would you consider this in your distribution as an extra benefit? Sorry, just one last question on the dividend and the distributions, if I may. You have a payout rate if the EUR1 dividend per share, which corresponds to more than 50%. Am I right in your previous comments to understand that the focus is the absolute distribution rather than the payout ratio?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Thank you, Anke, and I'm happy to take all three. As for the loan loss provision guidance change, I think of it as primarily related to what has already happened in the year. We had a number of corporate defaults and an overlay that we booked in Q2, which took us slightly above what we'd anticipated when we spoke to you three months ago. While you're always looking into a crystal ball, we've been in a granular way examining the portfolio, including commercial real estate, to have a view on the second half. We've seen a stabilization compared to the deterioration that took place last year, and it's fair to say that the larger part of the change in guidance is what has already happened in the year. If you think back to Q4 results, we mentioned expect about EUR450 million in 2024, consistent with our 2023 performance. This may have slightly worsened, but not dramatically. On the FRTB delay, it essentially cuts in half, just simple math. We had given you EUR15 billion of RWA increase from CRR three as of January 1st next year. I’d now build about EUR7.5 billion into the models and move the other EUR7.5 billion into January 1st, 2026. So that's helpful for our capital path, enabling us to build excess capital. Regarding dividends and distribution, we perceive a 50% payout intention as a floor. We would accrue based on the interim profit recognition and because of profitability impacts in 2024 from the Postbank provision, the payout ratio will likely cover our dividend and some amount of repurchase. However, we aim to preserve that buyback trajectory even if the payout ratio exceeds 50%.
Anke Reingen, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Kian Abouhossein from JPMorgan.
Kian Abouhossein, Analyst
Yes, thanks for taking my two questions. First of all, I wanted to come back briefly on cost in your remarks, Christian, you talked about the EUR4.9 billion run rate potentially at the end of the year. I just wanted to see how much flexibility that offers next year to get your cost income guidance from? Can you indicate if there's flexibility to run below EUR20 billion in that sense, considering you're indicating a lower number for the end of the year even if it's adjusted versus stated? Also, could you please clarify your assumptions regarding provisions? Are you assuming any deterioration in commercial real estate? Lastly, on leverage loans, is there any incremental provision requirement?
James von Moltke, CFO
Let me start with the cost answer. The most important thing is that we stick to our target and demonstrate that we deliver on that, which I believe we have shown since Q4 2023. We have progressed from EUR5.3 billion of quarterly costs down to EUR5.0 billion. Looking ahead, we have all the pipelines of additional cost measures ready to execute over the next quarters as we achieve our EUR2.5 billion cost cuts. I am very confident that we will come to our EUR4.9 billion quarterly costs at the end of Q4 or the start of Q1. There is also flexibility on the cost number in terms of variable compensation and technology investments. Regarding provisions for credit losses, we maintain that our allowances are prudent and adequate for the risks in the portfolio. We continue to monitor and adapt dynamically.
Christian Sewing, CEO
Turning to the issue of commercial real estate, we have done a detailed examination of our portfolio, and we observe a stabilizing trend. Though defaults may have increased recently, we don’t see a material deterioration. Our confidence allows us to maintain a run rate for Deutsche Bank in terms of loan-loss provisions.
Kian Abouhossein, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Tom Hallett from KBW.
Tom Hallett, Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you tell us how you see the deposit mix and main trends developing in the second half of the year across the Corporate Bank and the Private Bank, and how much some of the recent political uncertainty may be impacting this? And then secondly, on SRPs, which is obviously becoming quite a popular tool for banks these days. Could you just give us some color on the potential CET1 benefit over the next year and quantify or help us understand the size of the overall opportunity here, which as an outsider, I guess I'm thinking about it in terms of size and scope of assets that are generally earning below the regulatory cost of capital?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Loan growth has been more sluggish incoming than we'd expected as you've heard on our calls for the past year or so. That said, we did have loan growth in the second quarter. We think that the kind of first encouraging sign we have is EUR2 billion of loan growth this quarter. The demand in some structured lending areas appears to be increasing. And there’s still some demand in retail portfolios. Furthermore, we see encouraging performance on the deposit side, especially in the Corporate Bank, where we’re able to attract deposits at an appealing pricing. This indicates healthy growth going forward. Regarding SRT, some of our risk transfer programs have been in place for 20 years. We have good structured programs and a high level of engagement with our long-term investors. The scope for new structured programs isn't dramatic, but we continue to look for portfolios that can be held off the balance sheet more efficiently. The additional asset classes will become pertinent especially in light of the CRR three world and the impact of the output floor.
Tom Hallett, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Giulia Aurora Miotto from Morgan Stanley.
Giulia Aurora Miotto, Analyst
Yes, hi, good morning. My first question is on the Private Bank. Could you please give us a bit more detail on how quickly the fee line can grow and what initiatives you have underway to really control this and drive fees in the next quarters, particularly in 2025? And secondly, you talked about loan growth dynamics. What about asset margins? How are those evolving in your main products?
Christian Sewing, CEO
The fee business in the Private Bank is showing continuous improvement. We're seeing constant inflow in our assets under management and notable growth in the personal banking area. We plan to digitalize the personal banking business further, turning around what has been a less profitable segment. The investments we’ve made will pay off as we achieve better returns for the increasingly large number of clients that we serve.
James von Moltke, CFO
Regarding the lending side, we've been surprised to the upside on both sides; deposit margins performed better than anticipated, and spreads in the front book were healthier than we had predicted. This margin expansion has significantly contributed to better-than-expected net interest income. Delving deeper, there has been a positive outcome on new lending spreads, which fortify our overall expected growth in net interest income next year.
Giulia Aurora Miotto, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Mate Nemes from UBS.
Mate Nemes, Analyst
Yes, good afternoon and thanks for the presentation. I have three questions, please. First of all, on RWA reduction, I think you have achieved EUR19 billion in total RWA reduction as a result of the optimization program. Could you give us a sense of the timing of the remaining reductions to get to your EUR25 billion target? Is that largely coming through in the second half of this year or in 2025? The second question is on share buybacks. Just referring to your slide 22 and the 50% per annum growth in share buybacks, I think the original expectation certainly by the market was a higher total amount of buyback in 2024 on which the increase into next year would have been substantial. My question is, are we looking at a 50% increase versus the EUR675 million for the buyback next year? Or should we think of a potentially larger increase due to the scrapped second tranche of the buyback in 2024? Finally, the last question is on the Corporate Bank loss provisions. Could you give us any sense of whether these single cases or corporate events are reflective of any deterioration in the broader asset quality in the corporate sector?
James von Moltke, CFO
We're very pleased with the progress on the credit optimization program. I hope for good performance in Q3 that could add another EUR2 billion in reductions, and if we achieve the same in Q4, we could be pleased with around EUR24 billion reductions this year, leaving about EUR5 to 6 billion next year to achieve the EUR30 billion target. Concerning the buyback, the consensus was that the second buyback authorization could be something in the order of EUR400 to EUR500 million. We always viewed the EUR675 million as a baseline, and we maintained the possibility of top-ups depending on the level of excess capital in future years.
Christian Sewing, CEO
On the asset quality in the Corporate Bank, the two cases James mentioned are indeed significant, but I assure you that they do not reflect a deterioration in the overall asset quality. We have maintained substantial coverage from a commercial loan perspective, which enables us to maintain confidence in our loan loss provisions moving forward. While we do see a slightly elevated loan-loss provision number, the real run rate is steady, and we have adequate provisions.
Mate Nemes, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous.
Stefan Stalmann, Analyst
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have just two left, please. Starting with the Private Bank, you mentioned an NPL sale. Can you tell us roughly how big this was notionally the terms and whether there was actually a P&L profit or loss on the back of this sale? The second question relates to the valuation and timing differences in your corporate center, which have been mostly positive in recent quarters. Can we think of this as a neutral balance, which is still negative? I think you are still working yourself out of that spectrum or is it actually now a positive and overall balancing? Is there a risk that normalizes down to neutral with negative effects in coming quarters?
James von Moltke, CFO
I don't know the notional amount of the NPL sale, but in round numbers, think of us as having a credit loss provision benefit of about EUR25 million from the sale, which was offset by a continued drag from operational disruptions of about the same amount. So the EUR150 million you see in the second quarter is a pretty good indication of the run rate and going into the second half of the year in the Private Bank, given we wouldn't necessarily expect the drag from operational items to persist in the second half of the year. The NPL sale wouldn't necessarily repeat on the valuation timing differences; there are no immediate reversals, but we're seeing positive elements that have persisted in recent quarters. There seems to be a pull to par in the investment portfolio, which has a short and medium-term element.
Stefan Stalmann, Analyst
Many thanks.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Matthew Clark from Mediobanca.
Matthew Clark, Analyst
Hi. It’s just a follow-up question on the leverage loan and potential ECB supervisory expectations deductions compared to your risk-weighted asset on a Pillar 2 add-on. Do you see that the supervisory expectations on provisioning as being incremental to the existing Pillar 2 add-on that you have or do you see it as potentially netting a gain for that effect, but you've already got some new requirements?
Christian Sewing, CEO
Matthew, it's always hard to speculate about items that are literally in the hands of regulators. I find it positive that the ECB is engaging with us and reviewing our arguments. We believe we have provisioned appropriately. We continue to engage constructively with supervisors on this dialogue.
Matthew Clark, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And the next question comes from Jeremy Sigee from BNP Paribas Exane.
Jeremy Sigee, Analyst
Thank you. Just a couple of small follow-ups, please. Firstly, on the changes in regulatory adjustments that helped capital in the quarter. Can you talk a bit more about what those were and whether there's more of them to come or any reversals, or are they just what they are? The second question is just on the Russia case you mentioned in the notes. Could you confirm that there's no financial impact in this quarter? In fact, there's no provision booked because it's fully offset by the claim. How confident are you in that perspective? Other banks involved seem to be taking charges relating to that case.
James von Moltke, CFO
On the first question, I refer you to page 42 of the interim report. The main driver we're referring to is the expected loss shortfall. It's an area where we will continue to evaluate how to manage those deductions. The direction of travel should stabilize. As for the Russia case, we indeed booked an offsetting provision along with an indemnification asset. We're confident that our risk is aptly reflected on the balance sheet, and we do not anticipate any change.
Jeremy Sigee, Analyst
Great. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
The next question comes from Andrew Coombs from Citi.
Andrew Coombs, Analyst
It's morning, and I think the vast majority of questions have been answered now. But perhaps I can just ask on slide 29 on your interest income sensitivity. In light of the PMI data today, I think this is the first time we switched this from 24 to 26, 25 to 27 sensitivity. But a big step uptick in euro sensitivity coming through in 2027. I assume it isn't related to the structural hedge. Can you provide more color on why such a big step-up is coming through from 26 to 27 in your interest rate sensitivity guidance?
James von Moltke, CFO
On interest income sensitivity, the movement we see represented was an update in our modeling approach. That reflects a success in reducing the sensitivity on our balance sheet. The uptick in 2027 is related to our hedge portfolio, and as we roll over hedges, we can improve sensitivity further. Unless there’s a significant change in our view of the future path of interest rates, I expect that sensitivity to decrease over time.
Andrew Coombs, Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Ioana for any closing remarks.
Operator, Operator
Thank you for joining us and for your questions. For any follow-ups, please come through to the Investor Relations team, and we look forward to speaking to you on our third-quarter call.