Earnings Call Transcript - DG Q2 2024

Operator, Operator

Good morning. My name is Robert, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Dollar General Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today is Thursday, August 29, 2024. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. This call is being recorded. Instructions for listening to the replay of the call are available in the Company's earnings press release issued this morning. Now, I'd like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Kevin Walker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Kevin, you may begin.

Kevin Walker, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call with me today are Todd Vasos, our CEO; and Kelly Dilts, our CFO. Our earnings release issued today can be found on our website at investor.dollargeneral.com, under News and Events. Let me caution you that today's comments include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, such as statements about our financial guidance, strategy, initiatives, plans, goals, priorities, opportunities, expectations or beliefs about future matters, and other statements that are not limited to historical fact. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These factors include, but are not limited to, those identified in our earnings release issued this morning, under Risk Factors in our 2023 Form 10-K filed on March 25, 2024, and any later filed periodic report and in the comments that are made on this call. You should not unduly rely on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date. Dollar General disclaims any obligation to update or revise any information discussed in this call unless required by law. At the end of our prepared remarks, we will open the call up for your questions. To allow us to address as many questions as possible in the queue, please limit yourself to one question. Now, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Todd.

Todd Vasos, CEO

Thank you, Kevin, and welcome to everyone joining our call. I want to begin by thanking our team for their continued dedication to serving our customers while executing our back-to-basics plan across the organization. This dedication was on full display at our leadership meeting earlier this month as we had the opportunity to host more than 1,500 leaders of our organization here in Nashville. This event served as a powerful reminder of the passion and talent of this team and the mission of serving others that unites us. On today's call, I will begin by recapping our Q2 performance, I will then share updates on our back-to-basics work as well as an update on our plans for the remainder of 2024. After that, Kelly will share the details of our Q2 financial performance as well as our updated financial outlook for the full year. Turning to our second quarter performance. We continue to make important progress on our back-to-basics plan. However, we are not satisfied with our overall financial results. On the top line, net sales increased 4.2% to $10.2 billion in Q2 compared to net sales of $9.8 billion in last year's second quarter. Importantly, despite a weaker sales environment for our core customer than we had anticipated, we continue to grow market share in both dollars and units in highly consumable product sales. Same-store sales increased 0.5% during the quarter, which was below our expectations. The increase was driven by a 1% growth in customer traffic and was partially offset by a 0.5-point decline in average transaction amount, which was driven by lower average unit retail price per item. The comp sales increase was driven entirely by the growth in our consumable category, as customers continue to focus their spending on the items they need most for their families. This growth was partially offset by declines in our seasonal, home, and apparel categories. From a monthly cadence perspective, same-store sales growth was strongest in June before turning negative in July. Notably, the three softest comp sales weeks of the quarter were the last week of each of the calendar months. This pattern suggests that our customers are less able to stretch their budgets through the end of the month. With that in mind, as well as our continued softness in discretionary sales in our own customer data and survey work, we believe the softer-than-anticipated sales performance in Q2 is at least partially attributable to a core customer that is less confident in their financial position. I want to provide some additional context around what we're seeing and hearing from our customers. The majority of them state that they feel worse off financially than they were six months ago as higher prices, softer employment levels, and increased borrowing costs have negatively impacted low-income consumer sentiment. As a result, our core customer, who contributes approximately 60% of our overall sales, comes predominantly from households earning less than $35,000 annually. Inflation has continued to negatively impact these households with more than 60% claiming they have had to sacrifice on purchasing basic necessities due to the higher cost of those items, in addition to paying more for expenses such as rent, utilities, and health care. More of our customers report that they are now resorting to using credit cards for basic household needs, and approximately 30% have at least one credit card that has reached its limit. In our latest survey, 25% of our customers surveyed noted they anticipate missing a bill payment in the next six months. While middle- and higher-income households are seeking value as well, they don't claim to feel the same level of pressure as low-income households. As customers have felt more pressure on their spending, we have also seen a corresponding elevation in the promotional environment beyond what we had anticipated coming into the year. Importantly, we continue to feel very good about our everyday low-price position relative to competitors and other classes of trade. However, the increased promotional activity has pressured both sales and gross margin, and we anticipate this will likely continue for the duration of the year. That said, we remain committed to our back-to-basics strategy, which focuses on controlling the things that we can, including a timely and accurate supply chain, in-store execution, and customer-centric merchandising. With this in mind, we have already begun taking decisive action to respond and strengthen our position over the back half of the year. I want to take the next few minutes to update you on our back-to-basics progress, which is foundational to our future. And then I will discuss the actions we are taking to build on that progress and deliver a stronger customer experience. I will start with our stores where everything begins and ends for our customer. Our efforts in the stores have centered around further enhancing the customer experience to deliver the value and convenience they expect in a clean and friendly shopping environment. We have increased the employee presence at the front end of our stores, with our associates committed to providing friendly welcomes and an elevated level of engagement to our customers while also facilitating a positive checkout experience. We have also focused labor hours on perpetual inventory management in our stores in an effort to significantly improve our in-stock levels and support our sales growth. These efforts have paid dividends as we continue to see year-over-year improvements in our in-stock levels. Our supply chain and merchandising teams have also contributed to the in-store progress by helping to simplify operations for our teams, which should enhance both the associate and customer experience in our stores. All of these improvements have continued to drive lower year-over-year turnover at all levels within our retail operations, including regional director, district manager, store manager, assistant store manager, and sales associates. We are proud of the progress in the stores, and we are pleased to see our actions continue to resonate with our team in the field as well as with our customers. And we are working hard to continue to advance our progress and further elevate the experience within our stores. Next, let me provide a quick update on our supply chain. Our top priority in this area continues to be improving our rates of on-time and in-full truck deliveries, which we refer to as OTIF. Our focused efforts here have led to significantly higher OTIF levels compared to the same time last year, and we are pleased with what we have seen both in our traditional and fresh supply chains. We have also made good progress in optimizing our distribution capacity. As a reminder, we had previously announced plans to close 12 temporary facilities by the end of the year. We have already exited 11 of these buildings, and now believe we can close at least two more by the end of this year. While closing the less efficient temporary facilities, we have built and opened two new permanent distribution centers in Arkansas and Colorado. We expect both to ramp up operations in the coming months and to ultimately contribute to a reduction in stem miles and lower transportation costs over time. Finally, we are undertaking the first full-scale refresh of our sorting process within our distribution centers since the launch of our Fast Track initiative in 2017. As a reminder, the ultimate goal of this effort is to enable our store teams to stock shelves more quickly, which should drive greater on-shelf availability for our customers and ultimately support ongoing sales growth. We have made significant progress on this front, and as planned, we are on pace to complete this work by the end of the year. Overall, we remain focused on enhancing the agility of our supply chain, allowing us to meet changing demands and respond quickly to challenges, all while keeping costs low, driving greater efficiencies and further improving the experience for our store teams and customers. Finally, I want to provide an update on getting back to the basics of merchandising. Providing meaningful value to our customer continues to be a top priority. We have a multifaceted approach to deliver that value, including a strong everyday low price on national and private brands, compelling promotions on sales events and low opening price points, including approximately 2,000 items at or below $1 every day. We have also continued to make strong progress reducing total inventory this year, which Kelly will discuss in more detail in a moment. In 2024, we began working toward a net reduction of approximately 1,000 SKUs within our chain by the end of the year, and we are well on our way to meeting that goal. Finally, our merchants have done a fantastic job working with our operators to reduce activity and simplify work inside the stores. For example, we have reduced the number of floor stands by approximately 25% through the first half of the year, and we anticipate removing more than 50% by the end of the year. Additionally, we have reduced the number of times we rotate some of our displays, allowing our store teams to spend more time engaging with our customers. Collectively, these actions are designed to save time within our stores for our teams and ultimately result in an improved associate and customer experience. Overall, we are making nice progress, and we are executing on the goals we have set for our team. And importantly, we believe we will continue advancing these efforts as we move throughout the remainder of the year. Moving forward, we believe our back-to-basic actions will drive improvements in customer satisfaction, including on-shelf availability and convenience, further enhance the associate experience in stores, including improved employee engagement and retention, and ultimately drive improvements in financial results in 2025 and beyond. However, as I previously mentioned, we are not happy with our Q2 financial results. We know the retail landscape has continued to evolve in terms of the promotional environment and financial constraints felt by our customers, and we are taking immediate action to respond to serve them while also positioning the business for growth and value creation. With all of that in mind, we are increasing our investment in markdown activity in an effort to support our customers, further drive customer traffic, and improve sales. We are investing from a strong everyday price position to further support our customers and maintain a favorable competitive positioning. We believe this investment will work in conjunction with our back-to-basic efforts to further enhance our value and convenience proposition. In summary, I want to reiterate that we are pleased with the operational progress we're making, and we feel good about the actions we are taking to build on that momentum. We need to be at our best for our customers in times like this, and we are excited about the opportunity to serve them. We have a strong track record of delivering exceptional value, and we have seen that when we do so consistently, we build strong brand loyalty that contributes to healthy share gains over the long term. And with store locations within 5 miles of approximately 75% of the U.S. population, we are uniquely positioned to serve customers and communities with value and convenience. I am confident this team will continue to rise to the occasion and seize the opportunities in front of us to further enhance the way we serve our customers, improve our financial results, and create long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Kelly.

Kelly Dilts, CFO

Thank you, Todd, and good morning, everyone. Now that Todd has taken you through a few highlights of the quarter, let me take you through some of the important financial details. Unless we specifically note otherwise, all comparisons are year-over-year, all references to EPS refer to diluted earnings per share, and all years noted refer to the corresponding fiscal year. As Todd already discussed sales, I'll start with gross profit. For the second quarter, gross profit as a percentage of sales was 30%, a decrease of 112 basis points. This decrease was primarily attributable to increased markdowns, increased inventory damages, a greater proportion of sales coming from the consumables category, and increased shrink. These factors were partially offset by a lower LIFO provision. With regards to markdowns, we are now seeing promotional levels greater than we had anticipated coming into the year. As Todd noted, customers are increasingly seeking value in their purchasing behavior in addition to an overall increased promotional environment. Shrink was a year-over-year headwind of 21 basis points in Q2, which was in line with our expectations coming into the quarter. And I want to note that while shrink continues to be a significant headwind, we are pleased with the progress we're making and believe our actions, including our self-checkout conversions, are having a positive impact. Turning to SG&A. It was 24.6% as a percentage of sales, an increase of 57 basis points. The primary expenses that were a greater percentage of net sales in the current year period were retail, labor, depreciation and amortization, store occupancy costs, and utilities. These factors were partially offset by a decrease in incentive compensation. Moving down the income statement. Operating profit for the second quarter decreased 20.6% to $550 million. As a percentage of sales, operating profit was 5.4%, a decrease of 168 basis points. Net interest expense for the quarter decreased to $68 million compared to $84 million in last year's second quarter. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 22.3% and compares to 22.9% in the second quarter last year. This lower rate is primarily due to the effect of certain rate-impacting items such as federal tax credits on lower earnings before taxes. Finally, EPS for the quarter decreased 20.2% to $1.70. Now turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. Merchandise inventories were $7 billion at the end of the second quarter, a decrease of 7% compared to the prior year and a decrease of 11% on a per store basis. Notably, total non-consumable inventory decreased 13% compared to last year and decreased 17% on a per store basis. Importantly, we continue to believe that the quality of our inventory remains good. The team has done a nice job reducing our overall inventory position while simultaneously optimizing our mix and driving higher in-stock levels. We will continue to focus on maintaining the appropriate balance of mix of inventory to drive sales while also mitigating shrink risk and improving our working capital. The business has generated cash flows from operations of $1.7 billion year-to-date, an increase of 127% as we continue to improve our working capital position, primarily through inventory management. Total capital expenditures for the 26-week period were $696 million and included our planned investments in new stores, remodels and relocations, distribution and transportation projects, and spending related to our strategic initiatives. During the quarter, we returned cash to shareholders through a quarterly dividend of $0.59 per common share outstanding for a total payout of $130 million. Now I want to provide an update on our financial outlook for fiscal 2024. On the top line, we've updated our guidance to reflect our second-quarter results as well as our expectations that the customer will continue to feel financial pressure for the duration of the year, and the promotional environment will remain elevated beyond what we had initially anticipated. With that in mind, we now expect net sales growth in the range of approximately 4.7% to 5.3% and same-store sales growth in the range of approximately 1% to 1.6%. Turning to gross margin, we expect additional pressure as a result of the increased promotional markdown activity that Todd noted, as well as increased sales mix pressure due to the customers' need to prioritize their spending on the consumables category. With regard to damages, our guidance now assumes no improvement in the back half of the year, though we are focused on addressing this headwind through our continued emphasis on getting back to basics. And while we expect shrink to be a headwind for the full year, our results from the second quarter as well as positive trends in other metrics that are highly correlative to shrink, including inventory reductions, support our belief that we are moving in the right direction to continue mitigating this headwind. Looking ahead, we are cautiously optimistic that we will see shrink begin to turn to a tailwind later in Q4 and then become a more material tailwind in 2025. Within SG&A, we are seeing an elevated rate of maintenance expense, particularly with HVAC units and coolers during the summer months. We're taking steps in the back half of the year to be more proactive in addressing these opportunities in order to provide a more consistent customer experience across our store footprint while also supporting ongoing sales growth. As a result, we expect incremental pressure from the increased repairs and maintenance expense to continue within SG&A in the back half of the year. Finally, we are also seeing pressure from wage rate inflation closer to approximately 4% this year, which is higher than was contemplated in our initial guidance for the year. With all of this in mind, we are updating our EPS guidance and now expect to deliver EPS in the range of approximately $5.50 to $6.20. This guidance now assumes an effective tax rate of approximately 23%. We also continue to anticipate capital spending in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion as we invest to drive ongoing growth. This capital spending remains aligned with our capital allocation priorities, which continue to serve us well. Our first priority is investing in our business, including our existing store base as well as high-return organic growth opportunities such as new store expansion and strategic initiatives. To that end, we remain on track to deliver on our plans of approximately 2,435 real estate projects this year, including 730 new stores, 1,620 remodels, and 85 relocations. Next in our capital allocation priorities, we seek to return cash to shareholders through a quarterly dividend payment and, over time and when appropriate, share repurchases. Finally, although our leverage ratio remains above our target of approximately 3x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR, we are focused on improving our debt metrics in support of our commitment to our current investment-grade credit ratings, which, as a reminder, are BBB and BAA2. In summary, while we're not satisfied with the financial results for the second quarter, we are pleased with the continued progress in our back-to-basics work, and we believe we're taking the necessary actions to build on this progress and drive the business forward. We remain committed to disciplined expense and capital management as a low-cost operator, with the goal of delivering consistent, strong financial performance while strategically investing for the long term. And we continue to believe that this model is resilient and strong. I want to emphasize that we're confident and excited about the long-term future of this business, including driving profitable same-store sales and delivering meaningful operating margin expansion while generating healthy new store returns, strong free cash flow, and creating long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Todd.

Todd Vasos, CEO

Thank you, Kelly. As we wrap up, let me say again that 2024 is about executing on our foundational back-to-basics plan, and we are pleased to be on schedule and making great progress against the goals we have previously outlined. We are confident that the actions we are taking will strengthen our foundation for the long term. This team is energized and laser-focused on our strategy to restore operational excellence while delivering value for our customers and shareholders alike. I want to close by thanking our more than 193,000 employees for their commitment to fulfilling our mission of serving others. It is a privilege to serve alongside them each and every day, and we are looking forward to all we can accomplish together in the back half of the year. With that, operator, we would now like to open the lines for questions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Michael Lasser with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Lasser, Analyst

Todd, the market is saying that Dollar General and the small box value model is structurally challenged either because there are too many stores, it's not as sufficiently exposed to the online channel, or not attracting enough incremental customers perhaps due to competition. So why is that wrong? And as you are trying to invest in markdowns and promotions to regain customers, how do you build back the margin over time? Is it simply a function of leveraging sales growth?

Todd Vasos, CEO

Thank you, Michael, for your question. We don't believe the model is structurally challenged, although this quarter has presented some business challenges. Our new store productivity and strong returns from new stores are performing well, helping us gain market share. Cannibalization from new stores remains consistent with historical trends, so we don't think slowing down new store openings is the solution. This quarter, we experienced a comp of 0.5% compared to last quarter's strong 2.4%. It seems that the lower-end consumer is financially constrained, especially regarding family support. Throughout the quarter, the last week of each month was the weakest. Our private brand and $1 or below value offering, which includes 2,000 items, remain robust. This indicates that consumers are cash-strapped now more than in Q1. While we are gaining share across all trade classes in consumables, we didn't capture our fair share of available market opportunities this quarter. Competitors, particularly in the southern mass channel, performed better in gaining share. However, we are not losing our core customers. To address this, we will take proactive measures, which we have successfully implemented in the past. We are committed to capturing more than our fair share of the market and are actively working on this strategy. The company, and small box retailers in general, are doing well despite undergoing a transformation. There may be some challenges, but we are confident in our ability to seize available market share. Kelly, you may want to address the second part of the question.

Kelly Dilts, CFO

Yes, absolutely. So, yes, just how do we build that margin back over time? I think it's important to call out, one, you nailed it. It's a softer sales environment. So, with the top line, that does put pressure on our fixed cost leverage, specifically labor and rent and those types of things. But as Todd talked about, I think, in the near term, one is just going on the offense and taking the markdown investment that we need to take on a go-forward basis to drive sales and to be there for our customers. And to kind of put that in context, I would say that what we're looking at in this back half is going to be a markdown rate similar to what we saw last year in the back half as well. So more than we had anticipated, but absolutely the right decision, and not necessarily one that we have to think about over the long term as that can come back in line when circumstances change. The other piece of this, and we've talked a lot about it, obviously, is shrink and mix headwinds. And so, we're certainly experiencing those. Although, I think we have a lot of good news here to report on the shrink side of things, starting to see that trend bend. It just takes a while to flow that through the financial statements. And then the damage piece of this as well is putting a little pressure on the second half. But again, all the things that we're doing on a back-to-basics effort are going to help to mitigate that, as well as just having a focused team on that. So, I think those are kind of the near-term things that we'll be dealing with that will get in line. And then over the long term, our underlying long-term drivers are still in place. We still have a long runway for new store opportunities with high returns. We have higher returns with the opportunities that we have with our existing stores. And then you saw, this period, our cash from operations was up 127%. So, we are still generating a significant amount of cash flow, which gives us the ability to invest in the business. So, we feel good about the long-term potential of getting those margins back over time.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Simeon Gutman, Analyst

I have two parts in one question. Todd, I want to ask if this transition period changes the way you think about reinvestment now going forward, thinking about all the levers of pricing and merchandising and labor, meaning that even if the business comes positive, that margins just stay subdued for an extended period of time while you get all the pieces in order. And then, the second part of it is, are there any cohorts of stores where it would make sense to rationalize them because they're under comping and/or they're margin dilutive to the overall chain?

Todd Vasos, CEO

Thank you for the question, Simon. As we navigate through this transformation period, it's important to recognize that our journey towards improvement is not always straightforward. There are challenges, particularly concerning our margins. We've pointed out that a significant opportunity in margin improvement lies in addressing shrinkage, an area where we see potential for alignment. As Kelly mentioned, we are beginning to see positive results from our efforts in this regard, and we anticipate that it will become a supportive factor as we approach Q4 and significantly into 2025. Addressing shrink is an ongoing challenge that requires daily attention, but we are well-equipped to handle it effectively at Dollar General. I also want to highlight that our back-to-basics strategy is starting to reveal positive outcomes. Using a football analogy, while we were around the 50-yard line last quarter, we’re making progress and are now closer to the opponent's 40-yard line. This progress is evident in various areas, including staffing at the front-end, reducing self-checkouts in favor of assisted lanes, which our customers prefer. This improvement in service is also positively impacting our shrink results. We are also observing improvements in our in-stock levels each quarter and better turnover across all levels of our operations. This suggests that we are supporting our employees well, which typically leads to better customer service. We see these developments as positive indicators. On the merchandising front, I am pleased with the 11% reduction in total inventory on a same-store basis and a substantial decrease in non-consumables and consumables, all while gaining market share in consumables. We are focusing on engaging consumers through promotional strategies atop our strong everyday pricing. Additionally, we're on track to reduce 1,000 SKUs by the end of this fiscal year, simplifying operations at the store level. Our off-shelf displays are being reduced significantly. Our supply chain has demonstrated remarkable progress, as we move towards the red zone, thanks to the efforts of our teams. Our on-time and in-full delivery rates are exceeding expectations, and maintaining consistency is crucial, as it ensures our stores can effectively manage their operations. Overall, we are seeing various positive developments, although there are still pressures in certain areas. Our guidance reflects a cautious optimism based on current consumer conditions and our transformative efforts, with a positive 1% traffic increase for the quarter. While we aim for more, we understand the importance of supporting our customers through difficult times, as they tend to remain loyal when times improve. This is our current approach.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

Matthew Boss, Analyst

Great. So, Todd, just to take the cadence of comps, maybe a step further, could you elaborate on underlying traffic versus ticket as the quarter progressed? Any concerns that are now more top of mind today relative to, call it, three months ago from your survey work on the low-income consumer? And have you seen any improvement in August comps?

Todd Vasos, CEO

Yes. I don't want to talk too much about August, but I would tell you that what we've seen so far in this quarter is in our guidance, and we feel that we're on track there. So very much I believe in that guidance that we put out there. Now I would tell you that while we're happy with the 1% that we gained on traffic, we believe there's more to gain there. As I indicated in my first question answer, I would tell you, Matt, that what we saw is the guys down in Bentonville are doing a pretty nice job in garnering the available traffic that's out there from other retailers. We haven't seen a deterioration on our side. But what we saw in Q1 was a greater pickup from the available share maybe from other classes of trade, grocery and drug. While we got some of it, we didn't get our fair share, at least what I would consider to be our fair share. And that's why we're attacking this and going on the offense. We believe that as we continue to be there for our customers in this regard will help us gain momentum into the back half of the year and hopefully a springboard into 2025. And Kelly, you may want to elaborate a little bit on the other side.

Kelly Dilts, CFO

Yes. No, absolutely. So yes, taking a look at second-quarter comps on a cadence basis, June was our strongest month, and then it started to turn negative in July. What we really saw kind of in that mid-quarter time frame was just a general step down, and it was all around the transaction side of things to Todd's point. So, when we think about what we are contemplating as we went into Q2, I would tell you that on the basket side, we were pretty much in line with our expectations. It was on the transaction side, which is what the teams are going to run hard after driving sales and making sure that we get the customers the value that they need right now. So that's really the cadence. The other thing I think that's really important to point out is that each of the calendar months were the softest comp weeks of the quarter. For us, that really indicates that she started to run out of money by the end of the month. What we saw in some of our survey work is just that our core customer says that they're feeling worse off financially than they did six months ago. Again, it just goes back to the point of in this back half, making sure that we're playing offense on driving sales and taking the markdown investment that we need to do.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Rupesh Parikh with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.

Rupesh Parikh, Analyst

I have two quick ones. So first, on the guidance, is there any more conservatism than normal with this particular guide? And then, second, as you look at the promotional offers that you've done, I guess, in Q2 and then what you plan to do in the back half of the year, how is the consumer response versus your expectations versus what you typically see when you run these increased promotions and markdowns?

Kelly Dilts, CFO

Thanks, Rupesh. Yes, no, to give a little bit of color on the guidance, let me walk through a couple of things. I'll tell you that, in the back half, it was primarily of obviously the softer sales trends that we saw in Q2, but also the impacts associated with those sales. So that sales mix-related margin and then the markdowns that we've been talking about. There's a lot of other puts and takes that we talked about in our prepared remarks, but those are really the primary drivers. So, to that, just to give you a little bit of color on the sales side, what I'll tell you, while we're doing all the right things to strengthen our foundation through our back to basics and the markdowns that we're looking ahead for our core customer is obviously struggling. This guidance really is more of a macro neutral to a slight softening of that consumer. The low end of the guidance takes that into consideration. We are looking at it a little-different ways than what we may have historically. I think that's important to call out as well. On that lower end range, we're looking at a comp similar to the comp that we had in the second quarter, whereas the higher end of the range would assume that there's some acceleration. But I think it's important to unpack that a little bit. In analyzing where we're heading in the second half, the one- and two-year trends have a lot of noise in them just given the volatility that we had last year and then the recent step change that we had in the middle of the second quarter. So, if you take a step back, we think really looking at the CAGR from 2019 is probably a more relevant view. That's for a couple of reasons. One is, it's a similar holiday schedule to 2024, which is important. It eliminates the noise of the pandemic and the stimulus, as well as inflation as we've seen inflation steady a little bit this year. We're really using that kind of as a basis of what we're looking for. With that, on the high end of our '24 guide, what we're assuming now is that a stable CAGR rate to 2019 very close to what it was in Q2. So just continue kind of where we are and that the consumer and the environment don't necessarily get much worse from here. On the low-end side of things, it provides for some further softening on our core customers' ability to spend. That's how we're thinking about the potential outcomes of what we're seeing today.

Todd Vasos, CEO

Rupesh, regarding the other part of your question, as Kelly mentioned, we started to notice a softening, particularly evident in July. Since that was the last month of the quarter, we began to increase our promotional efforts in the middle of the month. While it takes time to ramp up, it doesn't take as long as it used to because we've enhanced our digital tools over the years. This allowed us to initiate promotional activities quickly, which have since intensified as we moved into August and will continue to grow as we approach the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter. As we expected, we're seeing an immediate response from consumers. They are engaging, especially through our digital tools. We are experienced in this area and have done it many times before. We have always said we can invest in pricing, and because of our strong everyday low prices, we feel good about our position. Our focus remains on promotions. We understand what consumers want and need, consistently communicating with them each quarter, and that is what we're providing now and will continue to do so. We believe that our promotion strategies will attract more customers and drive more transactions as we progress through this quarter and into the next.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Keith with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Peter Keith, Analyst

Todd, in the past, you've always talked about how in tough times your customers need you even more, and certainly, this is a tough time with inflation and your core customers are suffering a bit. How come you don't think you're seeing the normal share gains or spending behavior from your customers like you have in the past?

Todd Vasos, CEO

That's a great question, Peter. I want to share a few observations. First, during any significant transition, like the one we experienced in the second quarter, it typically takes our core customer a few quarters to recover, especially toward the end of Q2. Additionally, we usually see an increase in trade-ins after a quarter or more. However, we have noticed that trade-ins are coming into the channel slower than we expected or have observed in the past. I believe this is due to several factors. The primary reason seems to be that the job market remains quite decent; it may not be as strong as before, but unemployment hasn't significantly increased recently. Usually, a noticeable shift in the job market prompts more trade-ins. The middle and upper-middle-income customers are still looking for value, so it's important to note they are still interested. However, to encourage them to trade in at a higher rate typically requires something more significant than what we've seen so far. While I don't wish for difficult times for our customers, we are prepared to support them when the situation arises. We've also observed that more online activity is coming from this group. Our core customer maintains her online habits, which remain fairly consistent, while the middle to upper-middle-income group is increasingly turning to online options. As this trend continues, it appears that trade-ins may slow down on that front, so it's important for us to find ways to mitigate this impact. Stay tuned for updates on this.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Seth Sigman with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Seth Sigman, Analyst

I wanted to follow up on pricing just given the price investments and the comments about the promotional environment being worse than expected. Can you talk about how your competitive price gaps have evolved through this year; however you look at that? And maybe just elaborate more on the actions that you're taking? How much of the assortment are you looking to mark down here, maybe the categories that you're focused on? And I guess just the last piece of that as we try to bridge the guidance, how much of that guidance change reflects those price investments? If I recall, last year, you had about $95 million of markdown impact. It sounds like you're saying something similar to that, so I just want to clarify, is that another $95 million?

Todd Vasos, CEO

I'll start, Kelly, and I'll turn it over to you. I would tell you that we feel very good about our everyday price position. As a matter of fact, we track it and graph it, as you would imagine, every which way. It is fairly flat to where we've been over the last many quarters against all classes of trade. Our everyday retails are in good shape. If you recall, when I came back in, in October last year, I did call that out as one of our shining stars that I found coming back, as our everyday low price was very competitive and continues to be even today. So that gives us great confidence and a very good springboard to launch this promotional activity that we know exactly how to do, and we've done it many times in my time here in the last 16 years to stimulate that customer and to build a bridge to the end of the month for our core customer because she's running out of money. I’m not going to give you the exact playbook because that wouldn’t be too smart, right? But I would tell you that it will be in categories mainly that really drive that traffic for us, but more so, what that customer was looking for to bridge that time. So, think about things like the food categories, cleaning, and paper where she really needs us, again, to bridge her family's gap at the end of the month, those are those areas that are best suited for this type of activity. That’s exactly how we’ve approached it in the past and have approached it so far, and will continue to approach it as we move through the back half of the year.

Kelly Dilts, CFO

Yes. No. And then just on the markdown investment as we're thinking about it in the back half. I'll tell you, it's not a certain dollar amount that we're considering. It's just the overall level of promotion and markdowns that we need to take. So similar to kind of what I said before. What we're expecting is in that second half that the rate would be similar to last year. As we think about it more on a full-year basis, what that does is get us back into that markdown promotional range that's very similar to where it was in 2019. Certainly, from a front half, back half perspective, the back half now would be heavier than the front half of the year.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Partners. Please proceed with your question.

John Heinbockel, Analyst

Two quick things. Todd, how do you evaluate the return on investment from promotions? A couple of years ago, you ran promotions in the fourth quarter to kick off the following year, which I believe increased comparable store sales by a couple of hundred basis points. How do you view the current environment in comparison to that? Finally, regarding the comparable sales growth needed to manage expenses, I believe it's still in the mid-3s range. Is there a significant opportunity, like a rolltainer-type initiative, that could bring that down significantly, or are we pretty much limited to that 3% plus figure?

Todd Vasos, CEO

Yes, John, thank you for the two-part question. I'll address the first part by saying that as we evaluate our promotional strategies, we always assess the potential return. Currently, we believe that utilizing our gross margin for promotions is the most effective approach. Historically, as you've pointed out and as I've experienced over my 16 years here, these promotions have resulted in a more engaged consumer. Typically, once we move past extensive promotional activities, we maintain solid returns. A few years ago, we refined our promotional strategies, and today we are more strategic in our approach. This rationalization, along with the tools we now have integrated into our processes, should help us maximize traffic while ensuring we make the best use of our spending. We aim to enhance overall performance, not just in promotional areas but also in segments such as food, paper, cleaning, and pet products, where we've seen overall growth. This past rationalization of markdowns has been beneficial for us. Regarding labor, we are experiencing slightly higher labor rates than we initially expected this year, though the hours we are providing align with our plans. We are still confident in the availability of labor hours for our stores. The recent increased labor costs have slightly exceeded our predictions entering the year. As for the rolltainer initiative you mentioned, which we last implemented in 2017, while there was a noticeable labor impact then, we don’t expect it to be as significant this time. We are comfortable with our current labor hours, and it’s important that our operators feel the same. We are focused on using the rolltainer store and other initiatives to make our operations more efficient without sacrificing the service level, ensuring we have enough staffing to meet customer needs and provide an excellent shopping experience. Right now, we believe utilizing our available labor hours for fundamental operational improvements is our best strategy. We will continue to explore options within SG&A, which encompasses more than just labor costs, to identify ways to manage those expenses as we progress through the latter half of the year and into next year.

Operator, Operator

Our final question comes from Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Corey Tarlowe, Analyst

I just wanted to ask on inventory. Inventories are down, yet in-stock levels are up, and seemingly markdown should also be increasing, so unit velocity should increase. So, I'm curious how you think about that dynamic? And then secondarily, consumable sales have continued to increase, but seasonal sales were only down slightly close to flat. I'm curious if you saw anything to call out in that category as well?

Todd Vasos, CEO

So why don't I start, Kelly, and I'll turn it over to you. Yes. So let me take the second part of that question. As we exited Q2, while we weren't happy with either side of the consumable or our non-consumable business, but to your point, what we saw was a flattish non-consumable business quarter-over-quarter and a deceleration of the consumable side of the business. What that really showed was, once again, that core consumer is very price-sensitive at this point and looking for value anywhere she can find it. That's another reason why we're stepping up that promotional activity to reengage even further that consumable side of the business, which we believe, and we've already started this venture at the end of Q2 and now into Q3. We very much believe and are seeing that engagement start to come back in. As we continue to ensure that we're there for the consumer, I believe that transition into a little bit more of a promotional environment will continue, but will also continue to pay off for Dollar General. And then as it relates to a little bit of the inventory, before I pass it to Kelly, I feel very good about the inventory that we're reducing versus having to restock based on sales. As you saw, we continue to reduce, at the highest level, our consumables business, which is usually the slowest turn business as well. The good thing is, as we continue to look forward, these goods are fresh, they're clean, and they're very sellable and, as you can see, are selling. It's good to see that, but I believe it's also good that we're seeing some of the reductions to make a little bit more room inside the stores for our customers to be able to enjoy that shopping experience.

Kelly Dilts, CFO

Yes. And Todd is absolutely right. We feel really good about the quality of our inventory. I think we called it out in the prepared remarks, this team has just done a remarkable job of reducing inventory while improving in-stock that is not easy to do. They're focused on optimization, and you heard us talk about some investments last year that we put in place to help with that. So, we're certainly rightsizing what we're bringing into our distribution centers and then out into the stores. I would tell you that the biggest unit decrease has been in our chain, which certainly helps with efficiencies and has driven some of the progress that we've made down that football field. Now we're starting to see it in stores as well. So that's good to see. I would say that this is a real bright spot in the quarter.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.