Earnings Call Transcript
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Earnings Call Transcript - DLTR Q1 2025
Operator, Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Dollar Tree Q4 2024 Earnings Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Bob LaFleur, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Bob, please go ahead.
Robert LaFleur, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Dollar Tree's fourth quarter fiscal 2024 results. With me today are Dollar Tree CEO, Mike Creedon; CFO, Jeff Davis; and Chief Transformation Officer, Stewart Glendinning. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that some of the remarks we will make today about the company's expectations, plans, and future prospects are forward-looking statements that come with risks and uncertainties. These could cause actual results to differ significantly from our predictions. For more information on these risks, please refer to the Risk Factors, Business, and Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations section in our annual report on Form 10-K, which we plan to file around March 26, 2025, as well as our most recent press release, Form 8-K, and other SEC filings. We caution against relying on any forward-looking statements made today, and we are not obligated to update any such statements except as legally required. During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP items to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in today's earnings release available on the IR section of our website. Non-GAAP measures are not meant to replace GAAP results. Unless stated otherwise, our financial results will be presented on a GAAP basis. Additionally, unless otherwise noted, all comparisons made today for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 are against the same period from the previous year. A supplemental slide deck outlining selected operating metrics is available on our website’s IR section. After our prepared remarks, Mike, Jeff, and Stewart will take your questions. Now, I'll turn the call over to Mike.
Michael Creedon, CEO
Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Today is a very exciting day for our company. As I'm sure most of you saw this morning, we announced that Brigade-Macellum will acquire our Family Dollar business for a total price of just over $1 billion. After a thorough review of our strategic alternatives, the company determined that a sale of Family Dollar is the best way to achieve our value creation goals. Dollar Tree and Family Dollar are two different businesses with limited synergies, and each is at a very different stage of its journey. Separating them will enable each banner to be led and managed by a dedicated team that can focus exclusively on that banner's distinct needs and on realizing each banner's full potential. Separating will also enable investors to own a business they value more without also having to own a business they value less or that may not fit in their investment profile. It should also make it easier for the market to properly value each business. Under the terms of the deal, subject to certain closing adjustments, Dollar Tree will receive just over $800 million in cash proceeds. The deal should close in about 90 days, and Family Dollar will remain headquartered here in Chesapeake. In the fourth quarter, our team was focused on achieving three distinct objectives: successfully closing out the year; bringing the strategic review to a favorable conclusion; and setting Dollar Tree on a path to realize its full potential and create long-term value for our associates, customers and shareholders. With a strong finish to 2024 and the sale of Family Dollar set to close later this year, my leadership team and I will fully dedicate ourselves to Dollar Tree's long-term growth, profitability and returns on capital. Our focus and energy will be devoted to growing sales and profits at this iconic and powerful retail brand. Dollar Tree offers customers incredible value, convenience and discovery. Our world-class merchants consistently provide our shoppers with an unparalleled and ever-changing assortment of discretionary and consumable products. No other retailer or e-commerce platform can reproduce the immediacy and thrill of that signature Dollar Tree treasure hunt. This is our heritage, and this is our future. One of our founders, Macon Brock, always spoke of running clean, bright and inviting stores that exceed our customers' expectations. With Dollar Tree as our sole focus, we can remain true to that vision and return to our roots, while still competing and innovating in the marketplace in new and better ways than we could before. With value, convenience and discovery, Dollar Tree offers just what the customer needs in today's value-seeking environment. By delivering on the fundamentals, we can drive the sales productivity and profitability necessary to create long-term value for our associates, customers and shareholders. With that, let's now turn to our results. 2024 ended strong as Dollar Tree's multi-price journey continued to build momentum and improvements in store standards and operational efficiency are creating the foundation for sustainable growth and value creation. Fourth quarter results reflect the positive impact of our expanded assortment with our newest multi-price offerings, especially in holiday categories, driving strong year-end sell-through. In the current economic landscape, we continue to see value-seeking behavior across all customer groups. In recent weeks, many retailers reported that customers, particularly middle-income customers, are shifting towards alternatives that present value. Dollar Tree is also seeing middle-income shoppers who make up about half of our customer base, focusing more on value. At the same time, we are seeing stronger demand from higher-income customers who increasingly see Dollar Tree as a cost-effective source for an expanding range of products. This trade-in has helped to offset other headwinds. We believe our ability to continue gaining market share amid such challenging market conditions shows that consumers appreciate the discovery aspect of our unique assortment and our compelling value proposition. Dollar Tree's Q4 comp was 2%. The quarter got off to a slow start with the late Thanksgiving, but our merchandising teams delivered across the broader holiday season as customers responded positively to our expanded multi-price holiday assortment. We are particularly gratified that our comp growth was balanced with traffic up 0.7% and ticket up 1.3%. Not only were both positive measures, but ticket actually grew faster than traffic for the first time since Q4 of 2022, during the tail end of the anniversary impact from breaking the dollar. We are encouraged by the deceleration in consumables mix shift this quarter, which was supported by the strong performance of our expanded holiday assortment. Q4 consumables mix increased 60 basis points to 45.2%, which is an improvement over the average per quarter mix shift of roughly 200 basis points we've seen recently. Consumables comp was 4.2%, which was on top of a 10.8% comp last year. Discretionary comp was 0.4%, its first positive reading since Q4 of last year. Multi-price clearly provided a boost to our Q4 performance. And while we are still in the early stages of this journey, I'm pleased with the progress so far and excited about the opportunity still ahead. With that, let me share some highlights of how our expanded assortment boosted our Q4 results. First, as a reminder, our 3.0 stores are new or converted stores that offer our expanded multi-price assortment throughout the store. Other formats include 2.0, which have a smaller multi-price assortment that is concentrated in a single aisle we call the valley and our 1.0 stores, which are over 95% of the items are still at $1.25. So in Q4, our in-line 3.0 stores saw a 220 basis point comp lift compared to other formats, including a 40 basis point consumables lift and a 290 basis point discretionary lift. Compared to other formats, 3.0 stores also saw a 20 basis point traffic lift and, more importantly, a 200 basis point ticket lift. Our merchandising team worked tirelessly to improve and refine execution around our expanded assortment, especially in holiday categories. Across seasonal merchandise broadly, our 3.0 stores saw a 10 percentage point comp lift over other formats, including 30 points in Thanksgiving and 15 points in Christmas. In everyday categories like textiles, electronics, apparel and toys, we saw comp lifts in the low to mid-teens. Toys, in particular, was a big winner this season. And even in underperforming categories like books, beauty and food, that was more by design as we cut space allocations for these items to make way for more productive categories. We finished the year with approximately 2,900 3.0 format stores, including roughly 2,600 conversions and 300 new stores. While the number of 3.0 conversions this year fell a bit short of target, we continue to believe it is better to not rush and get them done right with the least amount of disruption for our customers and associates. To that end, we are targeting approximately 5,200 3.0 stores by the end of 2025, including 2,000 new conversions and 300 new stores. In summary, we're pleased with the first year performance of our expanded assortment in our 3.0 stores. The traffic, ticket and sales lift that we saw is validating the investments we're making in our expanded assortment. Before I wrap up the Q4 results, I should note that with the decision to sell Family Dollar, from an accounting perspective, our Dollar Tree and Corporate segments are now reported as continuing operations and Family Dollar results are reported as discontinued operations. Net sales from continuing operations increased 0.7% to $5 billion, reflecting the solid comp performance and strong revenue contribution from noncomp stores, including the former 99 Cents Only portfolio, offset by lapping the 53rd week of last year. Net sales from discontinued operations decreased 11.2% to $3.3 billion, reflecting Family Dollar's 1.3% comp, the impact of store closings and the lapping of last year's 53rd week. Therefore, on a consolidated basis, net sales were $8.3 billion, which was at the high end of our $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion outlook range. I'd like to take a few minutes to talk about tariffs and give you a quick supply chain update. As a large retailer and significant importer, we have years of experience dealing with global trade variability. As discussed last quarter, we have multiple contingencies in place to address a variety of tariff scenarios and mitigate the earnings impact of higher tariffs. These include negotiating supplier cost concessions, changing product specifications, dropping noneconomical items, moving country of origin and, lastly, exercising the flexibility multi-price gives us. While we are focused on limiting the financial impact of any new tariffs, we are equally committed to continuously delivering value and market leadership on the items we offer our customers and differentiating ourselves from our competitors across the retail landscape. Our strategies to diversify country of origin sourcing have been in place for some time now. We intend to remain flexible and nimble, focusing our efforts on sourcing products via channels that deliver the lowest landed cost to us in order to maintain value continuity for our customers. This includes the optionality to shift sourcing to and from different countries within a relatively short time frame. For example, given our anticipated 2025 imports, the expected net impact of the 10% China tariff that was announced on February 4 prior to any mitigation efforts would have been about $15 million to $20 million per month. Based on our mitigation efforts to date, we have offset more than 90% of this incremental cost, which is reflected in our current 2025 outlook. With respect to the additional tariffs proposed in March, which included an additional 10% on goods from China and 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, we believe our potential pre-mitigation exposure is approximately $20 million per month. As we speak, our merchants are working to mitigate the impact of this latest round of tariffs. On top of that, we are evaluating the potential impact of any additional tariffs that could materialize and impact our sourcing efforts. We have not reflected the impact of this second round of tariffs in our 2025 outlook as the net impact will depend on the eventual policy and the degree, scope and timing of our mitigation efforts. The imposition of this year's tariffs has introduced uncertainty and volatility. But over the long term, we believe that our mitigation efforts can help us prevent sustained margin erosion. Finally, concerning our supply chain operations, we will be replacing the DC capacity we lost in Marietta, Oklahoma, and we'll communicate our plans to you once they are finalized. In the interim, we will continue incurring additional stem mile and other related costs until a replacement is up and running. As an immediate step to help ease some of our current network pressure and support our growing store base, prior to the closing of the sale, we plan to convert the Family Dollar distribution center in Odessa, Texas to a Dollar Tree distribution center. In sum, we finished 2024 on a high note with strong execution at Dollar Tree. Our results reflected sales momentum powered by growing consumer acceptance of our expanded assortment. With the pending sale of Family Dollar, I am excited at the opportunity to return to Dollar Tree's roots and begin to unlock the full potential of this iconic retail brand. Before I turn the call over to Jeff to go through the details of our Q4 results, I'd like to welcome Stewart Glendinning to our team. We recently announced that Stewart will take over as CFO at the end of March. Stewart joined the company earlier this year as our Chief Transformation Officer, where he has been heavily immersed in the Family Dollar sale process and charting the future course for Dollar Tree as a standalone organization. After Jeff's Q4 recap, I've asked Stewart to share our 2025 outlook. Finally, I want to thank Jeff Davis for his partnership these past 2.5 years and for helping to ensure a smooth transition as Stewart assumes his new role. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff.
Jeff Davis, CFO
Thank you, Mike, and good morning. I also want to extend my congratulations to Stewart. Having had the opportunity to work with Stewart over the past few months, I want to echo Mike's comments regarding what has been a smooth transition. Let me start with an overview of the changes in our financial reporting this quarter. Last June, we initiated a formal review of strategic alternatives for Family Dollar, which ultimately resulted in the transaction we announced today. That process officially ended in the fourth quarter with the company's decision to pursue a sale. And accordingly, Family Dollar was classified as discontinued operations. As such, our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results are reported on a continuing operations basis, which includes the results of the Dollar Tree segment and Corporate, support and Other. Family Dollar's results are reported as discontinued operations. In our earnings release this morning, we provided schedules of our 2024 quarterly and annual GAAP and non-GAAP results on a continuing, discontinued and consolidated basis. Unless otherwise stated, my comments today reference our adjusted results from continuing operations. Also for comparability purposes, please keep in mind that Q4 and FY 2023 included a 53rd week, which positively impacted revenue by approximately $560 million and adjusted EPS by approximately $0.35. Fourth quarter adjusted EPS was $2.11 from continuing operations and $0.18 from discontinued operations for a total adjusted enterprise EPS of $2.29, which compares to our outlook range of $2.10 to $2.30. Enterprise results include a $19 million or $0.07 per share benefit from a Mastercard settlement in discontinued ops and a $25 million or $0.09 per share charge for an antidumping duty recorded in continuing operations. Neither of these items were contemplated in our fourth quarter outlook. After netting both items, enterprise adjusted EPS would have been $0.01 above the high end of our outlook range. Turning to results from continuing operations. Adjusted operating income was $628 million, a 15% decrease from last year. Adjusted operating margin declined 230 basis points as gross margin declined 130 basis points and adjusted SG&A rate increased 100 basis points. Our adjusted effective tax rate was 24.8% compared to 23.8%, reflecting higher nondeductible expenses for executive compensation and lower work opportunity tax credits in the current year. Adjusted net income was $455 million compared to $544 million. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $2.11, which includes the $0.09 impact from the antidumping duty. Now let me move to our fourth quarter results for the Dollar Tree segment. Adjusted operating income declined 12.1% to $768 million. Adjusted operating margin declined by approximately 220 basis points, reflecting a 130 basis point decline in gross margin and a 90 basis point increase in adjusted SG&A rate. Gross margin declined primarily from the loss of sales leverage, lower mark-on and higher shrink, distribution and markdown costs, partially offset by lower freight. Also note that Q4 cost of sales included the $25 million antidumping duty. Adjusted SG&A rate rose principally from higher depreciation and utilities expense and the loss of sales leverage, which was partially offset by lower general liability claims adjustments. Moving on to the balance sheet and free cash flow. On a continuing operations basis, total inventory increased $176 million to $2.7 billion on higher mark-on and inventory receipts as we expanded our multi-price assortment. We ended the year with $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. On the cash flow statement for continuing operations, on a full year basis, we generated $2.2 billion in cash from operating activities, had capital expenditures of $1.3 billion and delivered $893 million of free cash flow. We ended the year with no borrowings under our revolver, no commercial paper outstanding and bank-defined leverage below 2.5x. Last week, we extended the maturity of our $1.5 billion long-term revolving credit facility to 2030 from 2026. Additionally, we closed on a new $1 billion 364-day revolver ahead of the May maturity of our $1 billion 4% senior notes. We believe we have ample funding capacity between cash on hand and availability under these credit facilities to meet our near-term debt obligations and provide for the ongoing capital needs of the business. We did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 3.3 million shares of common stock for approximately $404 million, including excise tax. At the end of the year, we had approximately $952 million remaining under our existing share repurchase program. And now let me turn the call over to Stewart.
Stewart Glendinning, Chief Transformation Officer
Thank you, Jeff. Now let me provide our current perspective on fiscal 2025. With the pending sale of Family Dollar, 2025 will be a transitional year for Dollar Tree as a standalone business. We will be working to separate Family Dollar while simultaneously focusing on driving growth and operating improvements in Dollar Tree. Prior to the closing of the sale, continuing operations, or what we are calling RemainCo, will be burdened with the full cost of corporate shared services. After the sale closes, which we expect will be in June 2025, a transition services agreement, or TSA, will go into effect. This agreement will help offset the shared cost burden until such time as these costs are fully transitioned to the new owners, a process which should unfold throughout 2025 and into 2026. Looking forward to fiscal year 2025, we expect strong top line growth from the Dollar Tree banner, with sales being positively impacted by multi-price expansion, operating improvements in our stores, new store growth and the continuing ramp-up of our recently opened stores, especially the former 99 Cents Only portfolio. Taking all this into consideration, we expect fiscal year 2025 sales will be in the range of $18.5 billion to $19.1 billion based on comparable store sales growth of 3% to 5%. We expect a modest improvement in gross margin based on the mitigation actions we've taken to date on implemented tariffs. That said, the tariff situation remains volatile, and any additional tariffs or unforeseen waterfall effects from the already announced tariffs could affect this assumption. Keep in mind Mike's comments about our ability to mitigate those tariffs over time. Outside of tariffs, we're forecasting favorability in mark-on, markdown and freight, with a partial offset from higher distribution costs related to incremental D&A from our supply chain investments and additional stem mile and other costs from losing the Marietta DC. Our freight cost outlook is positive across ocean and both inbound and outbound ground. For SG&A, I'll talk about Dollar Tree segment separately from Corporate, support and Other. Dollar Tree's adjusted SG&A rate in 2024 was 23.8%. In 2025, we expect deleverage of approximately 50 to 80 basis points. This is coming from higher store payroll related to our investments in additional hours and state-mandated minimum wage increases, management incentive compensation, D&A related to our elevated 2024 and 2025 CapEx investments as well as repair and maintenance, as we continue to improve store standards. Our corporate adjusted SG&A in 2024 was approximately $550 million. We expect this to grow by approximately 20% in 2025. The largest contributor to the year-over-year increase is IT spending, as we move systems off legacy platforms and onto the cloud, followed by payroll from merit increases and incentive compensation and D&A. Under the TSA that I mentioned earlier, we expect to receive approximately $95 million in the last six months of 2025 for services provided to Family Dollar over the second half of the year and a similar amount next year. While we will receive TSA income in connection with the cost of supporting Family Dollar for the second half of the year, we will incur these costs over the entire year. This negatively impacts our adjusted EPS by approximately $0.30 to $0.35, given the expected timing of the deal closing. On a normalized basis, had we received TSA payments for the full year, our net corporate costs at RemainCo would be lower, and our adjusted EPS would be $0.30 to $0.35 higher than the outlook we are providing. Over the next several years, we expect absolute Corporate SG&A dollars will go down, as overhead costs permanently shift to Family Dollar's new owners. Our Corporate infrastructure adjusts to the level needed to properly support a single banner, stranded costs go away and the TSA runs its course. We are targeting a reduction in our adjusted Corporate SG&A rate of approximately 100 basis points over the medium term. Finishing out the P&L, we expect net interest and other income of approximately $115 million, an effective tax rate of approximately 25.2% and 216 million shares outstanding, which does not reflect any share repurchases. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations is expected to be in the range of $5 to $5.50, which compares to last year's $5.10. Capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, including approximately 400 new Dollar Tree store openings. With respect to cash, we started the year with $1.3 billion on the balance sheet and expect to receive approximately $800 million of net proceeds from the Family Dollar sale. On top of this, we expect tax benefits from losses on the sale to be approximately $350 million accretive on a cash flow basis. Our capital allocation priorities remain investing and growing the business, then returning excess cash to shareholders with our preferred vehicle to date having been share repurchase. It is reasonable to assume that we will be back in the market repurchasing shares this year. Our balance sheet is strong. For this reason, we expect to come to market with a new debt offering following our May debt maturity and the closing of the Family Dollar sale. In the near term, we expect first quarter net sales to be in the range of $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion based on comparable net sales growth in the 3% to 5% range and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.10 to $1.25. In summary, 2025 is going to be a transitional year. With the sale of Family Dollar, we can fully focus on unlocking value at Dollar Tree. We had a solid 2024, and we feel good about many parts of our business heading into 2025. We're optimistic about the top line, and we're addressing cost pressures on several fronts, with tariffs being at the top of that list. We feel great about our cash position and our ability to generate meaningful levels of cash going forward. With a solid balance sheet and prudent CapEx commitments, we should have the ability to return a substantial amount of capital to shareholders this year and into the future. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Mike.
Michael Creedon, CEO
Thanks, Stewart. This is a pivotal time at Dollar Tree. We are shifting our long-term operational focus away from an integrated 2-banner model. With the sale of Family Dollar, our leadership team can focus all our energy and resources on growing Dollar Tree. I strongly believe selling Family Dollar and returning to our roots with an expanded assortment at Dollar Tree has created material value. Dollar Tree remains one of the best growth stories in retail, and the separation of the two businesses will allow us to move forward with a single-minded focus of driving growth and profitability. As Stewart indicated, 2025 is going to be a transition year as we pivot to operating Dollar Tree as a standalone entity. After 2025, on a go-forward basis, we will drive top line results by growing comp and opening new stores. We expect increased sales productivity will allow us to expand gross margin, begin leveraging SG&A and grow EPS. Most importantly, by returning a meaningful level of cash to our shareholders, we can leverage that EPS growth even more. I'd like to close with a shout-out to the entirety of the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar teams. They have worked masterfully and tirelessly on behalf of our shareholders and our customers. I could not be more honored to count myself among them. And with that, we're ready to take your questions.
Operator, Operator
Our first question is from Edward Kelly at Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Edward Kelly, Analyst
Good morning, everyone. I wanted to begin by discussing the tariff situation and possible mitigation strategies. It appears that the $20 million a month, or approximately $0.85 per share, is not included in our guidance. Can you elaborate on how you plan to address this, including your current efforts and your confidence in your ability to manage it? Additionally, Mike, it seems like you have some new price points in consideration, such as $1.50 and $1.75. I’m not sure if these are just tests, but I’m interested in how significant these adjustments could be in helping to offset the impact. I’m curious about how you view the overall opportunity to navigate the challenges that may lie ahead.
Michael Creedon, CEO
Thanks, Ed, and good morning. If you look at the tariffs, the first round, our team has been working our tariff strategy for a while now. We went through the round one of tariffs several years ago. And really, we put actions in place as soon as November to start mitigating the first round of tariffs. And as we said, we were able to offset 90% of those first round. With the second round, we continue to leverage the tools that we have, those big five that I talk about in terms of if we have to change the spec or negotiate really, really well with our suppliers and eliminate the product if we have to. And of course, what multi-price has opened up for us and given us the ability to mitigate. If you look at the second round, the 10 on top 10 and the 25 for Mexico and the 25 for Canada, there's still a great deal of uncertainty as to what completely hits, how those change. April 2 is a big day in terms of what happens with reciprocal tariffs. And so our teams are actively looking to mitigate, but given the level of uncertainty, we want to go with what we knew and then we continue to run our plays and our mitigation strategies to offset any other tariffs that come. I think we've demonstrated that when we've got the time, we can mitigate these tariffs, and that's what the team will continue to do. In terms of the different price points, we look at that value. We look at convenience and we look at discovery and we say where can we offer that and maybe move on some pricing as part of not just tariffs, but an inflationary cost environment that we've got to mitigate. And so that's where you're seeing that work where it makes sense. And I think we're positioned better than we ever have before to manage what is a very uncertain and volatile arena that we're in.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Your next question is coming from Michael Lasser from UBS. Your line is now live.
Michael Lasser, Analyst
Good morning. Thank you so much for taking my question. So Mike, I think the fact that Dollar Tree quantified the 90% mitigation of the first 10% from China and the fact that the second 10% from China is currently being collected is being assumed by the market that that's a cost that should be embedded in the P&L for this year. So a, is that wrong? And b, can you give us a sense of what your overall sourcing portfolio looks like right now such that when the reciprocal tariffs do come out if they do, we can get a sense for the exposures for the core Dollar Tree and that would help us understand the potential financial impact? And then on top of that, to what extent with Dollar Tree willing to use its balance sheet and all the cash that it has on its balance sheet, especially as the Family Dollar sales consummated to offset the potential margin implications of these tariffs and support the EPS outlook from here? Thank you very much.
Michael Creedon, CEO
Yes, thanks, Michael. The first answer is no. We have accounted for the first round of tariffs in our mitigation strategy. If you examine the remaining 10% in our 2025 forecast, it was too early to include the second round of tariffs due to the uncertainty surrounding the April 2 reciprocal tariffs and the back and forth we have observed. We will keep looking for ways to mitigate those impacts and need to see what develops. We have, however, outlined how it would affect us monthly if unmitigated, which amounts to $20 million per month. Our company has a long history of managing such challenges, particularly with our China Plus One strategy initiated in 2017, 2018. We are well-positioned to handle this over time and will continue to do so. Regarding the balance sheet, Stewart, please discuss how we can use it to counter any margin impact.
Stewart Glendinning, Chief Transformation Officer
Yes. Great. Michael, can you just help us in what ways you're thinking about us using our balance sheet to offset margin?
Michael Lasser, Analyst
Have a lot of financial flexibility to return excess cash to shareholders.
Stewart Glendinning, Chief Transformation Officer
Okay. Good. Yes. No, certainly. Let me address both of those points. First of all, there is a hidden benefit in our balance sheet. We are holding a level of inventory that may not be subject to tariffs yet, which we will be able to use. So there is a built-in advantage in our profit and loss statement. I want to emphasize what Mike mentioned. We have accounted for all the initial round tariffs and the subsequent round tariffs. We provided you with an understanding of the run rate so you can see how the tariffs develop. We are still working on mitigating that $20 million. Regarding our balance sheet and returning cash to shareholders, I noted in my prepared remarks that you can expect us to return to the market to repurchase shares. Aside from the tariffs, our balance sheet is in strong shape. We have an attractive stock price, and we have a significant amount of cash that we will need to utilize.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Next question is coming from Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.
Simeon Gutman, Analyst
Hi. Good morning, everyone. Congratulations on the Family Dollar sale. Mike, I wanted to ask you the, I guess, philosophy of how you're going to run the business over the next few years. You have a fresh start now with one asset. And if you look back, inflation has been pretty challenging for Dollar stores and now you still have to navigate tariffs. So, I wanted to ask how you think about margins for the business. Do you invest during the next several years, keeping margin down to reinvest back in the company? You have your competitors. Your biggest one is reinvesting in itself, not sure what Family Dollar's plans will be. But curious, do you let margins run up, or do you have to keep a lot of ammunition and firepower, given the pretty uncertain backdrop that the Dollar stores have been navigating for the last several years?
Michael Creedon, CEO
I'm excited about the opportunities for Dollar Tree as a standalone entity. Looking at our capacity to open new stores every year and the fantastic work our merchants have accomplished, we can clearly communicate our message within a Dollar Tree-only framework. We believe there's a strong potential for attractive margins over time. We have been in investment mode for the past few years, evident from our capital expenditures and the commitments we've made through wage increases and investments in hours. While 2025 will be a challenging year with the ongoing work with Family Dollar, I'm optimistic about our long-term prospects. I believe this business is robust enough to withstand an inflationary environment, largely due to the investments we've made in our stores and distribution centers, allowing us to offer a wider product assortment with our multi-price strategy. Overall, I see a very compelling long-term business that we can effectively manage for years to come.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Matthew Boss from JPMorgan. Your line is now live.
Matthew Boss, Analyst
Great. Thanks. So Mike, could you elaborate on trends you're seeing from higher income versus middle and lower. I thought that was interesting in your prepared remarks. And maybe just drivers of 3% to 5% comps in the first quarter, relative to the 2% comp that you did in the fourth quarter, have you seen acceleration so far quarter-to-date? And is it traffic or ticket?
Michael Creedon, CEO
Let me start with the comparable store builders. Looking ahead to 2025, there are several factors to consider. First, we have a significant number of new store openings that will contribute to our comparable sales, including the 99 Cents Only stores. Remember that opening two of these stores or converting them equates to opening three Dollar Tree locations. Last year, we faced challenges from the self-inflicted cannibalization of new store openings without the benefit of mature stores from previous years. This year, we will start to see a positive impact from those openings, which is exciting. Our multi-price strategy is also maturing, and I was encouraged by the performance in the fourth quarter, which showcased substantial discretionary growth. This growth comes not only from the new multi-price conversions this year but also from the maturity of those implemented in previous years. Looking at our cohorts, the conversions from Q1 to Q3 all showed improvement in Q4 compared to Q3. The longer stores operate under the multi-price model, the more they benefit from a broader assortment. Additionally, last year we navigated a difficult holiday calendar with fewer days during key shopping periods, but this is behind us for the next seven years. With an improved holiday calendar ahead, we anticipate a boost. Moreover, we are focusing on store standards, improving operations, and investing in employee hours and wages, which we believe will position us well. Overall, I am optimistic about our comparable sales and eager to see how the holidays unfold after a strong Christmas. Regarding consumer behavior, it's important to note that coming out of COVID, we witnessed a K-shaped recovery. Higher-income individuals were thriving due to low interest rates and a rising stock market, while lower-income individuals continued to struggle. Dollar Tree has historically performed well during recessions, and currently, we are seeing that lower-income shoppers rely on us for the right pack sizes and cost-effective fill-ins between paychecks. Our primary customer base, which is 50% middle-income, looks to us for affordability and ways to celebrate life’s moments. Interestingly, in this inflationary environment, shoppers across all income levels, including higher-income consumers, are turning to Dollar Tree as a viable solution, leading to growth in both ticket size and market share, as well as increased traffic. We recognize that everyone is feeling the financial strain right now, making Dollar Tree and Family Dollar important parts of the solution to these challenges.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Next question today is coming from John Heinbockel from Guggenheim Securities. Your line is now live.
John Heinbockel, Analyst
Hi, Mike, two related things. What are your product priorities when I think about discretionary particularly around seasonal because you did a lot of new stuff with holiday last year. So priority is there, priorities with regard to multi-price point cooler expansion? And then when you think about comp getting better by maybe 200 basis points, do you think it's equal between discretionary and consumable, each go up by an equal amount? Or is there a difference?
Michael Creedon, CEO
Yes, we're working to exceed our customers' expectations at every opportunity. In Q4, you could really see the strength of our product assortment during Christmas and what we call Harvest or Thanksgiving. The holidays are essential for Dollar Tree. Regardless of income, there's no better place to celebrate the holidays or any occasion than Dollar Tree. Customers shouldn't shop anywhere else because we provide the best value. We offer convenience, and when customers walk in, our associates are amazed by the quality we deliver at our price points, making that discovery crucial. We're committed to being balanced; we recognize that customer needs have shifted more towards consumables in recent years. However, the core essence of Dollar Tree lies in discretionary items. We'll continue catering to customer needs while focusing on how to impress them during the seasons and holidays, which remains a significant priority. Last year, we expanded our assortment in multi-price, and we had to quickly bring in what was available, including domestic and consumables. In Q4, you could see what we could achieve when we could incorporate discretionary items effectively, as we plan our purchases a year in advance. I'm excited about the potential to enhance our discretionary offerings with a broader assortment moving forward.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Next question is coming from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer. Your line is now live.
Rupesh Parikh, Analyst
Good morning and thanks for taking my question. So, just going back to 3.0 format store, just any pause or negative surprise you're seeing with that format? And then as you look forward, what are the bigger opportunities to further optimize the performance?
Michael Creedon, CEO
Yes, the 3.0s continue to perform well. The longer you engage with the program, the better your results will be. We don't do much marketing, if any; our customers need to find us on their own. Once they enter the store, they need to discover the multi-price offerings. It's encouraging to note that Q1 conversions remain our strongest area, and every conversion cohort—Q1, Q2, Q3—showed significant growth compared to the previous quarter, indicating that customers are indeed finding us. Introducing an expanded assortment around seasonal events and holidays highlights the effectiveness of multi-price. There's valuable learning as we revisit our strategies concerning store conversions and new store introductions, particularly as stores mature and we reflect on the assortment. Rick McNeely and his team excel at analyzing what works and what doesn’t, allowing them to adapt the assortment accordingly. We may decide to expand a section by four feet or reduce SKUs based on what has proven effective. We're still quite early in our journey. Last year, I likened it to being in the On Deck Circle; this year, we’re in the First Inning of the multi-price evolution, and I’m eager to continue learning from it. The most significant opportunities for learning still lie in our operations, specifically in properly setting up stores from the start and ensuring that both third-party teams and our management are aligned in this process, which we plan to enhance in 2025. One major takeaway from 2024 is that we can't simply force a store conversion; if a store isn’t ready, it will revert to underperformance. Preparation is key; having a Store Manager in place is essential, and the Assistant Store Manager must effectively manage inventory in the back room. When we execute these elements well, the results are outstanding. When we fall short, it's disappointing. This will be our focus for improvement in 2025.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Next question is coming from Chuck Grom from Gordon Haskett. Your line is now live.
Chuck Grom, Analyst
Hi. Thanks very much. Good morning, everybody. On the multi-price, I think you guys said 220 basis points of an uptick, I believe in the second and third quarter, the numbers were higher. Just wondering, if you could just speak to that directional change for us. And then on the 2025 outlook, on the 3% to 5% comp you're expecting 50 to 80 basis points of deleverage. Can you just speak to the factors that are going against you think you get a little bit more leverage on such a great comp? Thank you.
Michael Creedon, CEO
Yes. I'll take the first one, Chuck, and then Stewart will address the 50 to 80 bps. First of all, the change in multi-price performance, if you look at the starting point and the ending point of what we're converting, the Q1 conversions we did, it was 80% of them were going from what we call 1.0 to 3.0. So they hadn't been touched by the Valley yet. It was all about taking the single $1.25 price point and introducing multi-price. In Q2, we were kind of on balance there, roughly 50-50. And in Q3, it switched and it was only 20% 1.0 to 3.0 and 80% going from the Valley to adding the assortment. One of the things we've done for 2025 is to get back on balance with the conversions. You'll see a slightly smaller number than we did last year. We're targeting about 2,000 conversions this year. And so we look at that and say we've achieved by going with that, achieved a more balanced approach, which helps us perform as we learn. And then finally, I would just say we had talked about absolute comps in Q1, Q2 and Q3, we really are focusing on lift now as you get through more of the chain, some of the stores we're hitting may be significantly negative comping stores. So if I took a negative 10 comping store and turned it into a negative 5 with multi-price, you might look at it and say, hey, I don't like that negative comp, but you love the lift versus where it was. And so you get more of that as we evolve the program.
Stewart Glendinning, Chief Transformation Officer
Let me address the second part of the question regarding the lack of leverage. It's important to consider a few factors here. Firstly, at the segment level, there is indeed leverage present. However, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, due to the sale of Family Dollar, all corporate costs are now attributed to the segment, which leads to automatic deleverage. While some benefits arise from the Transitional Services Agreement, those will only come into effect during the second half of the year. Additionally, from a corporate SG&A viewpoint, we've indicated that there will be an increase in corporate SG&A this year, driven by investments in IT and costs that were previously covered by Family Dollar but are now returning to the corporate segment. This includes expenses related to dark stores and allocated costs that were once part of Family Dollar. Collectively, these factors account for the 20% we discussed in SG&A. To summarize the year ahead, if you look at the earnings per share shape, you'll notice increased backloading this year due to two main components: the $95 million from the TSA, which will help offset SG&A costs in the latter half of the year, and the five days of Christmas, which we anticipate will significantly influence our earnings in the fourth quarter. I hope that clarifies things.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question is coming from Kate McShane from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now live.
Kate McShane, Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Can you remind us how many combo stores you have with Family Dollar and Dollar Tree and how that unwind might look? And just as a follow-up to all the tariff questions. You mentioned that you can mitigate 90%, I think, of the first round of tariffs, does that mean that the remaining 10% is going to be mitigated with higher prices?
Michael Creedon, CEO
Sure, Kate. Thanks. So this is a clean deal. There are roughly 1,000 combo stores that will go to the new owner. There are what we call full combo, roughly 60, just under 60 that will stay with Dollar Tree, and so there is a little bit of that. Those will be rebranded Dollar Tree only. But going forward, the combo stores will be rebranded just Family Dollar and will convey in the deal. In terms of the 90% mitigation, the 10% is in our forecast. We never stop trying to offset tariffs using every single one of the tools in our toolkit. So there are some items that we will not sell and eliminate because we're not able to mitigate it and maintain the margins we want to maintain. There'll be other cases where in round two and round three of negotiations, we get that final 10%. And look, we'll look at country of origin. We'll decide to make something somewhere else if it fits our profile. And then, yes, finally, in very strategic and surgical ways, we will look at pricing.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Paul Lejuez from Citigroup. Your line is now live.
Paul Lejuez, Analyst
Okay. Thanks guys. I think you already started to take some prices I'm curious if that was driven by the tariffs, that was what was driving that decision? And then just going back to Matt Boss' question, what do you assume in that 3% to 5% comp from a traffic versus ticket perspective? I'm not sure if I heard the answer there? And just how much are recent price moves a driver of AUR and ticket? And then just last, when is there a clean break from the TSA? And are there any guarantees of the leases on the Family Dollar stores by Dollar Tree? Thanks.
Michael Creedon, CEO
Sure. Thanks, Paul. We've been dealing with rising costs for some time now. We've implemented specific strategies, focusing on products where we know customers will come to us. We don't want to eliminate any of these essential items because we recognize the customer demand. In certain situations, we find that we're underpriced compared to the market, and we aim to maintain those offerings. For example, we excel in selling prayer candles, which are produced in Mexico, and we intend to keep them available, possibly adjusting prices strategically. Tariffs contribute to this situation, but our overall challenges stem from inflationary pressures, including mandated wage increases and necessary market adjustments. We're evaluating all the resources our merchants have to tackle these issues. Regarding the anticipated 3% to 5% comparable sales growth, we are focused on increasing both transaction volume and customer traffic. We especially value ticket strength, which was evident in Q4, showing the effectiveness of various pricing strategies, particularly during the holiday season. Moving forward, our goal remains to grow both ticket sales and customer visits. Lastly, we have a clear situation with our previous closures, having around 300 dark stores, and beyond that, everything is straightforward in terms of what is being conveyed.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.
Michael Creedon, CEO
Thank you all for joining us this morning, and have a great day. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.