Earnings Call Transcript - DUK Q4 2022

Operator, Operator

Good morning. Thank you for joining Duke Energy's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2022 Earnings Call. I will now hand the conference over to your host, Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may proceed.

Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, Joel, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO, along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements, and those factors are outlined herein and disclosed in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures, along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, I'll turn the call over to Lynn.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Abby, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced adjusted earnings per share of $5.27, closing out a successful 2022. We achieved results solidly within our updated guidance range while making significant progress on our strategic goals, responding to external pressures and delivering constructive outcomes across our jurisdictions. As a result, today, we're reaffirming our 2023 guidance range of $5.55 to $5.75 with a midpoint of $5.65. We're also reaffirming our 5% to 7% growth rate through 2027 off the midpoint of our 2023 range. This reflects the strength of our regulated businesses, our disciplined approach to cost management and a robust $65 billion capital plan that supports our thriving jurisdictions. Before I turn to our regulated utilities, let me provide a brief update on the sale of our Commercial Renewables business. The sales process continues to progress. But as with the sale of any large-scale business, the timing tends to evolve. We remain on track to exit both the utility scale and the distributed energy businesses and now anticipate proceeds in the second half of the year. We will continue to keep you updated along the way. Turning to Slide 5. We've reached a significant milestone in our clean energy transition. On December 30, the North Carolina Utilities Commission issued an order adopting an initial carbon plan. This constructive order is the culmination of years of work with policymakers and stakeholders to chart a responsible path for the energy transition. The order recognizes the value of an all-of-the-above approach to achieving carbon reduction targets in a manner that balances affordability and reliability for customers. The near-term action plan provides approval of 3,100 megawatts of solar and 1,600 megawatts of storage as well as transmission upgrades to support the integration of these renewable resources. The commission also approved limited development activities associated with longer lead time investments, including small modular nuclear reactors, pumped hydro and transmission related to offshore wind. And as part of an orderly transition out of coal by 2035, the commission supported planning for approximately 2,000 megawatts of new natural gas generation to maintain reliability. Through its order, the commission reinforced the importance of maintaining a diverse generation mix while conducting an orderly clean energy transition and was clear that ensuring replacement generation is available and online prior to the retirement of existing coal units is a shared priority. The carbon plan provides a constructive roadmap that delivers on our strategic priorities and supports the needs of our customers and communities today and into the future. It supports our capital plan and provides the clarity we need to advance critical near-term investments. We look forward to continuing our progress through our updated carbon plan filing in North Carolina later this year. Moving to Slide 6. We're making meaningful progress on our strategic initiatives in each of our jurisdictions. In North Carolina, we filed our first performance-based rate application for our Duke Energy Carolinas utility on January 19, which followed a similar filing for our DEP utility last fall. The request includes a multi-year rate plan to fund system improvements to meet the growing needs of our customer base, including $4.7 billion of capital projects that are expected to go into service over the 3-year period. These investments are primarily T&D-related projects that support the security and reliability of the grid as well as approximately $300 million of solar and storage investments consistent with the carbon plan order. Our request is mitigated by a reduction in operating costs since our last rate case, evidence of our continued ability to manage costs to keep customer rate increases down. Evidentiary hearings are expected to begin in the third quarter and consistent with past practice, we intend to implement temporary rates in September, subject to refund. If approved, we expect year 1 revised rates to be effective by early 2024. In South Carolina, we were very pleased to reach a comprehensive settlement in January with all parties in our Duke Energy Progress rate case. The settlement, which is subject to commission review and approval includes a 9.6% ROE, the continuation of deferrals for grid and coal ash spend and supports accelerated retirement dates for certain coal units. In fact, the settlement is on the commission's agenda for this afternoon. And if approved, new rates are expected to be implemented in April. We also plan to file an updated IRP in South Carolina later this year, which will take into account the carbon plan and the Inflation Reduction Act. Turning to Florida. On January 23, we filed a petition to adjust customer rates for deferred 2022 fuel costs, less the impact of lower forecasted fuel prices in 2023. We are also flowing back IRA tax savings to our Florida customers as of January 1. In Indiana, we're updating our IRP to reflect results of the 2022 RFP process, regional transmission operator requirements and the Inflation Reduction Act. We expect to begin filing for certificates of need for new power generation in the second quarter. In Ohio, the commission approved in full our electric rate case settlement in December, which supports the recovery of grid investments to improve reliability and service for our customers. In December, we also filed an electric rate case in Kentucky. The request reflects more than $300 million in investments we've made to strengthen the generation and delivery systems as well as updated retirement dates for our Kentucky fleet. As we advance our regulatory strategy, affordability remains top of mind. Brian will go into more detail on steps we're taking across our jurisdictions to lower costs for customers. Finally, I want to highlight a well-deserved recognition for our Piedmont Natural Gas team. In December, J.D. Power ranked Piedmont #1 in residential customer satisfaction for natural gas service in the Southeast. This is the first time Piedmont has received the #1 ranking and is a testament to the commitment to our customers. In summary, 2022 was an extraordinary year for Duke Energy as we made strong progress executing our strategy, responding to difficult external pressures and advancing our clean energy transformation. Our path forward remains clear. As we continue to navigate our energy transition, we will do so responsibly, preserving affordability and reliability for our customers and remaining good stewards of communities. I'm confident that our strategy will continue to deliver consistent and lasting benefits to our customers, communities and investors. With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 7. 2022 marked a year of solid growth for our utilities. We achieved full year adjusted earnings per share of $5.27, above the midpoint of our updated guidance range. These adjusted results exclude our Commercial Renewables business, which was moved to discontinued operations in the fourth quarter. The classification of these assets as held for sale triggered a valuation adjustment of $1.3 billion, which is reflected in discontinued operations and GAAP reported results. This adjustment relates to the combined utility scale and distributed generation businesses and was within our planning range for the sales processes. Moving to our adjusted results for the year. In the Electric segment, earnings per share increased by $0.36 in 2022, primarily due to higher volumes, favorable weather and rate increases in North Carolina and Florida. Partially offsetting these are higher interest expense and storm costs. Absent storms, O&M was flat to prior year, which was in line with our guidance. In the Gas segment, earnings per share increased $0.07 and was primarily due to the Piedmont, North Carolina rate case and riders. In the Other segment, unfavorable returns on investments and higher interest expense drove results lower by $0.15. Turning to Slide 8. We are reaffirming our $5.55 to $5.75 guidance range for 2023 with the midpoint of $5.65. Within Electric, we expect retail volume growth in 2023 of roughly 0.5%. We also entered the year with updated rates for Ohio and Florida already in effect and we'll see growth from 3 Carolinas rate cases as we move through the year. Additionally, we will continue to see growth from the grid investment riders in the Midwest and Florida, namely the Indiana TDISC and Florida SPP plans approved in 2022. Moving to cost mitigation. We've identified $300 million of savings in 2023, which is primarily related to rationalizing our corporate and business support cost structures. Examples include streamlining IT support and reducing our real estate footprint. These cost reductions will be realized ratably over 2023 with approximately 75% of the savings being sustainable into future years. Partially offsetting these favorable drivers are higher financing costs as well as depreciation and property taxes on a growing asset base. Within our Gas segment, growth drivers include the Ohio rate case currently underway, cost mitigation efforts and customer growth, partially offset by higher interest expense. Finally, we expect the Other segment to be unfavorable due to higher interest expense. Turning to retail electric volumes on Slide 9. In 2022, we saw load growth of 2.5%. These strong results were driven by residential customer growth of 1.8%, higher usage per customer from hybrid and remote work and a continuation of the post-COVID rebound in the commercial class. Our total retail load in 2022 was about 2% higher than 2019 pre-pandemic levels. This is equivalent to an average annual growth rate of around 0.5% when smoothing out the year-to-year fluctuations. In 2023, total retail load growth is projected to be roughly 0.5%. Based on 2022 U.S. Census Bureau data, 3 states within our regulated footprint were in the top 6 for net population migration. This illustrates the robust customer growth experienced in our territories, which we expect to continue in 2023. We expect load growth in the commercial class to moderate this year following 2 years of significant growth. But the upside in industrial as easing supply chain constraints fuel a continued rebound for certain large manufacturers. Longer term, we expect annual load growth to be about 0.5% through 2027. Turning to Slide 10. I'd like to provide an overview of our 5-year capital plan, which has increased to $65 billion. When compared to prior periods, the capital plan has steadily increased as we move further into the clean energy transition. This increase is net of removing almost $3 billion of commercial renewables capital, including the previous 5-year plan. This means that we've increased the regulated plan by approximately $5 billion, resulting in a 7.1% earnings-based CAGR through 2027. While the investment needs of our utilities continue to accelerate, customer affordability remains front and center. Affordability has been consistently a pillar that governs our planning, and we have several tools to help keep rates low and assist customers who are struggling to pay their bill. First, the benefits of our cost mitigation efforts go back to customers over time, easing bill impacts as we recover capital investments. As I mentioned, we expect 75% of our 2023 cost mitigation efforts to be sustainable. Additionally, we are targeting flat O&M from 2024 through 2027. Our long-term O&M trajectory is supported by smart capital investments within our plan, including modernized equipment and technology investments that will help reduce fuel and operating costs. Next, the Inflation Reduction Act provides substantial benefits for carbon-free resources, including nuclear and solar PTCs and other renewable tax credits. We are beginning to incorporate these benefits and updated resources plans and rate adjustments. Over the next decade, we will fully leverage IRA benefits across all of our jurisdictions in order to maintain low costs for customers as we execute our clean energy transition. Finally, assisting vulnerable customers has always been an area of focus. But since the pandemic, we have worked even more closely with our communities and customers in need. For example, in 2021, we created a specialized team that partnered with agencies across our service territories and help connect customers to nearly $300 million in energy assistance funding over the 2 years. Moving to Slide 11. Our ability to execute our robust capital program is underpinned by a healthy balance sheet, and we remain committed to our current credit ratings. In December 2022, we received $1 billion in cash proceeds upon the closing of the second tranche of the Indiana minority stake sale. We expect to receive proceeds from the Commercial Renewables transactions later this year, which will be used for debt avoidance at the holding company. Turning to FFO to debt. We ended 2022 below our 14% target, largely due to deferred fuel balances. We have started recovering these amounts through established recovery mechanisms and will continue to file using mechanisms in place for the remaining balances. As we recover deferred fuel costs over the next 1 to 2 years, we expect FFO to debt to steadily improve and return to our long-term 14% target, demonstrating our commitment to our current credit ratings. As we look ahead, about 90% of the electric investments in our capital plan are eligible for modern recovery mechanisms, which is critical to maintaining a strong balance sheet, mitigating regulatory lag and smoothing rate impacts. With the steps we've taken to reposition our business and improve our cash flow profile in the years ahead, we are not planning to issue equity through 2027. Moving to Slide 12. Our robust capital plan, strong customer growth and constructive jurisdictions provide a compelling growth story. And our commitment to the dividend remains unchanged. We understand its importance to our shareholders, and 2023 marks the 97th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend. We intend to keep growing the dividend while balancing our targeted 65% to 75% payout ratio with the need to fund our capital. As we begin 2023, we are well positioned to tackle the challenges ahead and look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

Operator, Operator

The first question is from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners.

Shahriar Pourreza, Analyst

So Lynn, just starting on the Commercial Renewables, it's good to see, obviously, you guys reiterated '23. Obviously, the range assumed midyear cash in the door. Just remind us on the EPS sensitivity per quarter from the delay. And I guess, where does this put you within the '23 range?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Sure, we're continuing to target $5.65 and feel very confident with that. As you can expect, as we entered the year, we had a range of expectations around both timing and proceeds from the sale. And what I see now as being kind of a modest delay from midyear to later in the year, I don't see an impact. I think it's important to recognize that the growth is primarily driven by our regulated outcomes and the cost mitigation that's offsetting some of the external headwinds and those are on track as we expected and shared with you in the third quarter. So confident in the $5.65.

Shahriar Pourreza, Analyst

Got it. Regarding the $1.3 billion charge related to commercial operations, you're not the only utility that has taken a similar charge recently. We observed another peer do so yesterday. Is there any insight on the expected sale price for the assets? We've noticed that the term robust has been removed from the slides. How should we interpret this charge in relation to the final sale price?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Shar, I appreciate the question. I also appreciate how closely you all read the slides. We weren't intending to signal anything with the word robust. We feel good about the process. There's strong interest in the portfolio and we're moving forward. I think the thing to recognize on an impairment charge is this an accounting adjustment that's really driven by the earnings profile of renewables, where a lot of the profit that's in the early part of the life, you then depreciate it over a longer period of time. So when you make a decision to exit before the end of the useful life, you've kind of set yourself up for an impairment. So I would look at it that way. The takeaway is the strategic decision around asset remains unchanged, and we're on track for proceeds later this year.

Shahriar Pourreza, Analyst

Got it. Perfect. And then just one quick question for Brian regarding credit. The previous plan aimed for a 14% FFO to debt ratio over five years. Now you have mentioned a long-term target for 2023 of 13% to 14%, with 13% as the downgrade threshold. Can you discuss how the rating agencies are viewing these deferred fuel balances and your plans for future balances? Could another event lead to a downgrade considering the balance sheet capacity?

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO

We'll definitely hit that, Shar, and thanks for the question. We're working through the deferred fuel balances through the regulatory mechanisms in place. And that's what the agencies are looking for, looking to see, are you filing in line with the regulatory recovery that is established? Or are you making exceptions, spreading that recovery longer? We've had really good success so far in North Carolina and South Carolina, and we have a couple more filings in front of us, both in Florida and Duke Energy Carolinas, North Carolina. But these are working. The regulators understand our need to recover this in a timely manner from a credit position, and the rating agencies are liking what they're seeing in how we're executing these plans in accordance with the tools in place.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

And Shar, the only thing I would add to that is we look at this and the agencies look at this as a temporary issue because you can associate it completely with the deferred fuel. And the fact that we have been able to work constructively through recovery mechanisms, and we can actually forecast how that balance is going to decline over '23 into '24, it gives us a lot of confidence on the metrics. And of course, as you would expect, we're in conversations with the rating agencies every step of the way. This regulated portfolio that we have with the cash flows and constructive jurisdictions is really what underpins the credit ratings of the company, and nothing has changed around that risk profile.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Analyst

Thank you for the opportunity to speak. To follow up on the carbon plan and recent developments, I’m curious about how you plan to address some follow-up items throughout this year. What flexibility do you have in the capital plan? What are you currently assuming in your updates to the multi-year outlook? Additionally, how might the upcoming updates affect the 2024 outlook regarding adjustments in the CapEx budget? What changes could arise from the next discussion?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Sure. And thanks, Julien, for that. I regard the carbon plan order as a very constructive one that has given us real clarity on the near-term investments. So when you think about 3,100 megawatts of solar, 1,600 megawatts of battery storage, that capital plan is pretty well locked in for the Carolinas. We may see some marginal changes, but I would think about those as later in the 5-year period and really in connection with the next update. So I feel really good about the Carolinas. Florida is also on track with the 10-year site plan and SPP and grid modernization. I think where we have potential and even potential upside is in Indiana, where we are earlier in the clean energy transition, moving through that process. We have estimates in the capital plan, but we'll be filing for CPCN later this year and have more advanced dialogue about timing and approach. So I'm very comfortable with the capital plan and if anything, see a bit of upside in Indiana as we continue our clean energy transition.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Analyst

Got it. Since you mentioned it, I just want to clarify. You indicated earlier that you have a certain baseline assumption in Indiana in the latest plan. However, it seems you also suggested that there’s likely some upside to that assumption.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Yes. We have an estimate. That's exactly right. We put an estimate in there, Julien, but we're filing an updated IRP later this month into March, then we're filing for CPCNs. So that will crystallize more specifically toward the end of this year into 2024, much in the way that the Carolinas has matured as we go through IRP filings. Now we have an order on the carbon plant. So that's the way I would characterize it. And if anything, I would say our estimate has been on the conservative side.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Analyst

Got it. All right. Excellent. And then any developments or any thoughts around South Carolina here as you think about the opportunities that may exist there? I know, obviously, the carbon plan principally think about North Carolina here. Any crystallization of a further alignment here in South Carolina, if I can call it that at all?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Well, it's a good question, Julien. And I guess I'd like to step back and just point for a moment to a very constructive and comprehensive settlement that we were able to reach on the South Carolina rate case. I think that's an indication of just the incredible work that we have been doing with the stakeholders to continue constructive dialogue about where the company is going and what we're trying to accomplish. And I appreciate your sensitivity on the word alignment because what we are trying to accomplish is giving both states the flexibility to put their fingerprints on an energy plan going forward. And we believe we're making progress on this. We actually had testimony in the carbon plan that laid out a structure that would allow states to opt in or opt out depending on their energy policy, and that is beginning to take some discussion in South Carolina, but that will progress over time. We believe we operate in an incredibly valuable system, and we'll work with both states on how to add resources to meet their needs, customer and policy needs going forward.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolfe Research.

Steven Fleishman, Analyst

I have a follow-up question regarding the Commercial Renewables impairment. I believe you announced it was for sale during the Q3 call. Can you clarify why the impairment was not recognized at that time and is only being accounted for now? Is it due to having more information or is there another reason?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

So Steve, we actually made the decision to sell in early November and announced it on the third quarter call. That decision went through a governance process and Board approval in the fourth quarter, and as a result, the impairment is accounted for in the fourth quarter.

Steven Fleishman, Analyst

That's helpful. It seems that the impairment value you currently have aligns with the ranges you were anticipating for the sale process.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

That's exactly within our planning range, absolutely.

Steven Fleishman, Analyst

So nothing's really changed in your planning range. Okay.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

That's exactly right.

Steven Fleishman, Analyst

My other question is about the rate cases in North Carolina under the new multi-year rate plan. How are you considering whether you will be able to settle those cases or if they will likely require a full litigated process since they are the first under the law?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

I think it's too early to tell exactly. If you consider our history, we have occasionally entered into partial settlements where some elements of a case can be agreed upon, while others are deemed necessary to present to the commission. We'll engage in discussions with all involved parties throughout this process. As we approach the dates when testimony is ready to be heard and has been submitted by all parties, we will initiate those discussions. However, it's still too early to determine how this will unfold.

Steven Fleishman, Analyst

I have one final question. Regarding the $300 million in O&M reductions, I believe that figure has been mentioned previously, along with the 75% sustained. Can you confirm if that's the same as what you stated before, or has that number changed?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

It is, Steve. No, it's the same. It's the same as what we said before. So thank you.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

David Arcaro, Analyst

Just on that topic of cost management, could you give your latest level of confidence in hitting the $300 million this year, what you're seeing in the backdrop in terms of it becoming more challenging, easing up of any of those inflationary pressures this year so far?

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO

That's a good question, David. This is Brian. When we evaluated opportunities last year to position 2023 effectively, we identified areas in our corporate costs and business support that we could align service levels with work prioritization. For instance, in IT, we have around 1,300 IT systems, but not all are mission-critical and don’t require the same level of support. Therefore, we stratified our support levels across IT, HR, legal, and finance, discovering long-term structural opportunities. This is why we believe that a significant portion of the $300 million cost reductions is sustainable. Another key factor in reducing costs has been our real estate footprint, as we are consolidating from four buildings in Uptown Charlotte into one new tower, which will lower service costs, lease costs, and depreciation. Inflationary pressures are not affecting our ability to achieve the $300 million target. We have accounted for inflation in certain areas of our portfolio as we plan for 2023 and are confident in our $5.65 target.

David Arcaro, Analyst

Okay, understood. That's helpful. I was wondering if you could explain what gave you the confidence to increase the CapEx plan for the 2023 to 2027 period. Additionally, I noticed that the 2027 rate base forecast has increased significantly compared to previous expectations. Are there any other factors contributing to that as well?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

David, as we come to capital planning every year, we take into account where we are with regulatory approval, where we are with integrated resource plans, etc. And so we have seen an increase in transmission and distribution investment. If you look at the carbon plan in particular, there's transmission that's been approved in order to open up more potential for renewables. And as we get out into '26, '27, those numbers also reflect what we expect to mature in subsequent IRP updates and subsequent regulatory approvals. So that's how I would answer. I don't know, Brian, would you add anything further?

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO

No, I think as we move deeper into the clean energy transition, we expect the capital plan to increase year after year as well. So this is in line with our expectations as we move through the '20s.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

I believe this is a significant point. Reflecting on the generation transition day and the charts from the past decade, as we progress further into the plan, we will see more investments in generation, as well as in transmission and distribution, appearing sooner in our strategy. You will notice an increase in these investments in 2028, 2029, and 2030.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from the line of Nick Campanella with Credit Suisse.

Nicholas Campanella, Analyst

A lot of good questions so far. So I guess conceptually, Brian, when you updated this plan in the third quarter, we were kind of at the height of inflation, interest costs, gas costs, etc. And now we've obviously seen some of those things roll over here since you've given the 5% to 7%. Does that put you in a better spot in the range now, given that dynamic? I'm just thinking long term through the plan here? Any comment that you could give on that?

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO

Nick, that's a good question about the long-term growth rate. We are confident in our growth target of 5% to 7%. There are many factors we still need to consider. While interest rates have softened somewhat, they are still on the rise. The Federal Reserve is continuing to increase them. On the other hand, fuel costs are trending down, which is beneficial for our customers. However, those costs could increase just as quickly as they did in 2022. For now, we are maintaining our growth outlook of 5% to 7% without any adjustments.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

I think the commodity prices coming down, Nick is a real positive for customers because you think about we still have deferred fuel to collect, but our estimates for the cost of fuel in 2023 is coming off and that's a good thing. So we're pleased to see that. It's good for customers. It also takes a little pressure off of interest in financing. So we'll continue to take advantage of every bit of that.

Nicholas Campanella, Analyst

I appreciate that. And to your point on the deferred fuel, 80 basis points hit to the FFO and the '23 timeframe here, and I acknowledge you have a path to get back to the 14% long term. I guess my question is, do you see sufficient headroom in your metrics at this point for unforeseen events like storms? And just how should we kind of think about the ability for the current plan to just handle any more transient credit hits here?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

We feel very comfortable. The fact that we've absorbed $4 billion of deferred fuel and $0.5 billion of hurricane in 2022 alone, I think, is a strong testament to where we are, our scale, our ability to manage resources, etc. So we feel comfortable with it. We care deeply about maintaining these credit ratings. We think they're important and at the right level for the degree of risk in the business, but this is an opportunity that presents itself with the size and scale of our company where we can manage our way through blips of this type. More than a blip actually, $4 billion.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst

I just want to round out the Commercial Renewables conversation a little bit, if I could. If there's any additional color you could provide on the sale such as where book value stands right now, portfolio tax equity position, asset level debt. Just trying to fuse together more on our side. I appreciate that it's a sensitive time given that you're selling the assets, but wondering if you could share any more details, particularly as it relates to book value.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Yes. We feel good about the process and there is strong interest in the portfolio. We won't be discussing specifics regarding valuation at this time, given the current stage of the process. Brian, do you want to add anything?

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. Jeremy, we referenced a $3 billion book value excluding the tax attributes mid-year and we had some projects we continue to invest in for the balance of the year and then took the $1.3 million write-down at the end of the year. So you can kind of walk it down that way if you want to think about book value.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. I wanted to shift gears a bit. You are involved with several emerging technology partnerships, including Honeywell battery and TerraPower hydrogen pilot. I'm curious which technology excites you the most. Looking ahead 10 to 20 years, which one do you believe will play a more significant role in the Duke portfolio at that time?

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Jeremy, it's a really good question. It's a really good question. And one of the reasons we are involved in so many different things is the obstacle for full-scale adoption has a lot to do with which technology can reach commercial scale with a supply chain that will support how much of it we need. I think about our path or climate report through 2050 has us a need of somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 megawatts of what we call 0 emitting load following resources kind of in that late. So that could be hydrogen. It could be small modular reactors. It could be CCUS, it could be longer duration storage. So the key being, again, though, we're not going to invest until they're affordable for our customers and we can invest at the commercial scale necessary to make a difference. The small modular reactor is something we're spending time on, and you would expect us to. We are the largest regulated nuclear operator in the U.S. sitting in a part of the world that embraces nuclear as part of the solution. But we also joined with a collection of Southeastern utilities to pursue a hydrogen hub. Because with all that carbon-free generation and all the solar we're going to have in this area, we think that's something worth investing in, really, as part of maintaining and preserving the natural gas infrastructure that has been so important to this region. So I know it's a roundabout answer to the question, but we're not ready to put our finger on any specific technology as the solution, but we are advancing our work, piloting, advising, working as actively as we can to make sure these technologies are developing at pace so that when we do need them and are ready to invest, there will be something that makes sense for our customers.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI.

Durgesh Chopra, Analyst

I have no further questions at this moment, but I would like some clarification on the tax leakage related to the commercial renewables sale, Brian. During the Q3 call, it was mentioned that tax leakage is manageable because of your other tax losses. With this write-down, does that affect your tax basis? Are you still conveying that tax leakage is manageable, or does the impairment charge alter that situation?

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. There's no change to the tax position or a tax basis as a result of this impairment charge, so no change in message. We can manage it.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. That's all the time we have for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to Lynn Good for concluding remarks.

Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO

Well, thank you all for joining and for your investment in Duke Energy. We appreciate that. We feel like we've had a strong finish to the year and excited about 2023. And as always, we're available, Investor Relations and the senior management team for any further questions. So thanks for joining today.

Operator, Operator

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. Please enjoy the rest of your day.