Earnings Call Transcript - EC Q2 2024

Operator, Operator

Good morning. My name is Natalia, and I will be your operator today. Welcome to Ecopetrol's Earnings Conference Call in which we will discuss the main financial and operational results for the first-half of 2024. There will be a questions-and-answers session at the end of the presentation. Before we begin, it is important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol senior management include projections of the company's future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assumes no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared on this conference call. The call will be led by Mr. Ricardo Roa, CEO of Ecopetrol; Rafael Guzman, Acting Executive Vice President of Hydrocarbons; Javier Cardenas, Acting CFO; and David Riano, Executive Vice President of Transition Energy. Thank you for your attention. Mr. Roa, you may begin your conference.

Ricardo Roa, CEO

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Ecopetrol Group's Operational and Financial Results Call for the period ending June 2024. Thank you for your continued interest in participating in this space. This has been a period where operational metrics have continued their upward trend across all segments. We closed the first-half of 2024 with a production of 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a figure not seen in eight years, transported volume of 1,135,000 barrels per day and refining loads at a historic high of 426,000 barrels per day. I would like to highlight that in the Uchuva-2 well, whose drilling began this quarter, the extension of the gas discovery made in 2022 with the drilling of the Uchuva-1 well was confirmed. This well provides significant information for the development of this new frontier of natural gas production in Colombia and the Caribbean and reaffirms the expected potential in the region. Also on the production front, we highlight the contribution of the Permian, which achieved a monthly production record of 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In the Transportation segment, we achieved a cumulative national equation by pipelines of 831,000 barrels per day, the highest semiannual average in the last five years in the pipeline system. In refining, we maintained loads at historical highs along with an operational availability of 96%. Let's move to the next slide, please. Despite consistent operational performance, our financial results were challenged by external factors such as the exchange rate and inflation. We closed the semester with revenues of COP63.9 trillion, an EBITDA of COP28.3 million and a net profit of COP7.4 trillion. Our EBITDA margin of 44% surpassed the industry average showing a strong ability to maintain our profitability even amid the highest pressure from exogenous variables. Excluding externalities, we would have had a ROACE of 13% and net profit of COP10.7 trillion, an increase of nearly 10% compared to the first-half of 2023. In addition to external effects, net profit was affected by the increase in the estimated tax surcharge, which rose from 10% to 15%, due to the ROACE in the price of oil in dollars per barrel. Therefore, our strategy continues to focus on excellent operational performance with an emphasis on efficiencies and cost optimization to face the market factors to which we are exposed. This semester, we achieved efficiencies of COP1.9 trillion materializing our optimization and competitiveness strategy with efforts across the entire production and commercialization chain. In June, we paid the second and final dividend installment to our minority shareholders, fulfilling our pillar of competitive returns for our investors. Finally, the account receivable from the fuel price stabilization point, FEPC closed with a balance 61% lower than the same period last year. The balance in June 2023 was COP30.9 trillion versus the closing of June 2024 with COP12.1 trillion. It is also worth noting the lower monthly accrual, which in the January to June 2023 period was COP12.9 trillion compared to COP4.5 trillion in the first-half of 2024. This allows us relief in cash flow and better conditions for investment execution. Let's move on to the next slide now. I would like to highlight significant progress we have made in TSG in the field of science, technology, and innovation, the launch of the Colombian Institute of Petroleum and Transition Energy stands out with a project investment of COP816 million until 2030. This institute positions Ecopetrol as the main actor in Colombia's energy future. The materialization of this initiative is carried out through high-impact projects such as biomass energy, hydrogen and CO2 capture, circular economy and renewable diesel production. These projects have the potential to transform the region by developing cutting-edge skills and strengthening the country's scientific capacity, in line with this investment in this area capture benefits of COP778 billion, improving EBITDA, ROACE and cash flow. On the environmental front, we achieved a reduction of over 136,000 tons of CO2 equivalent in Scope 1 and 2 and we exceeded our annual energy efficiency target, achieving an optimization of 1.21 petajoules, accumulating 12.07 petajoules, which is equivalent to the annual energy consumption of the department of Bolivar in Colombia. In the social component, we connected 9,645 households to gas networks in the country in the first-half of the year. Additionally, Hocol and the community of Canutal consolidated the first comprehensive Energy Committee in the country in the Department of Sucre, certified by the Ministry of Mines and Energy. On the governance front, we have been adjusting the organizational structure to enable a differentiated management in each of the three business lines and accelerate the achievement of the objectives of our 2040 strategy by aligning processes and implementing a more agile and efficient group focused structure for decision-making, execution capacity and multidisciplinary teamwork with experts at the helm of the various Vice Presidents. All this enabled us to maintain the value proposition to investors and meet the expectations of the stakeholders, while driving prosperity in the country. To conclude, we highlight that for the first time, the return on investment in TSG is being measured. For 2023, this contributed positively to the group's net income and in COP1.25 trillion to the regional GDP, demonstrating the financial value of sustainability for the company and society. I now hand it over to Rafael Guzman, who will speak about the Hydrocarbon segment.

Rafael Guzman, Acting Executive Vice President of Hydrocarbons

Thank you, Ricardo. On the exploration front, I would like to highlight the results achieved in the offshore gas projects in Colombia, where we made positive announcements regarding the Uchuva-2 appraisal well. This well is located in the Tayrona block with a 55.6% Ecopetrol participation and operated by Petrobras. The well confirmed the extension of the gas discovery made in 2022 with the drilling of the Uchuva-1 well. This result reduces the uncertainty and allows us to progress on the project plan. We estimate the first commercial gas by the year 2029. We are also planning to drill two additional prospects with the Buena Suerte-1 well located in the Tayrona block and the Komodo-1 well in the ultra-deep water COL-1 block. The Orca Norte-1 well remains under evaluation. Once the results are incorporated with information from the two new reservoirs, a new development plan will be designed and its commercial viability will be determined. Regarding onshore exploration activity, we highlight the drilling of the Arantes-1 well operated by Parex and Florena N18 well operated by Ecopetrol in the Piedemonte Llanero region, both targeting gas and condensate. We maintain our target of drilling 15 exploratory wells in 2024. As of the end of June, we invested $195 million in the exploration campaign, with four wells drilled and six more wells that started drilling. Let's move to the next slide, please. In the first-half of 2024, the Ecopetrol Group reached a production of 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 26,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, as compared to the same period last year. As seen in the left figure, these results were obtained thanks to the growth in production in the subsidiaries, mainly in Permian. The incremental investments in fields such as Cano Sur, Rubiales and CPO9 and the contribution of recovery technologies that largely mitigate the natural decline of the fields. These recovery techniques now account for 41% of Ecopetrol Group's total production. For example, the figure on the right shows the performance of the Chichimene field and the effect of the implementation of these technologies, which has allowed the recovery factor to increase from 9% to 17%. If the expansion of our tertiary recovery is successful as shown by the current results on the pilots, the recovery factor could reach up to 43% with the potential to incorporate between 300 and 1,200 million barrels addition. On the other hand, we are progressing with the drilling plan, with 240 development wells drilled and completed with an average of 23 active drill rigs. EBITDA per barrel increased by 15%, reaching $30.6 per barrel, mainly explained by higher production levels, better prices in our crude basket and cost efficiencies. Let's move to the next slide, please. Regarding our activities in the Permian Basin, if the new wells were put into production during the semester for a total of 370 wells since 2019, achieving a net production before royalties for Ecopetrol of 91,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 12% of Ecopetrol Group's total production. We also highlighted strong financial results of Ecopetrol Permian. At the end of the first-half of the year, we generated an EBITDA of $511 million, an 81% EBITDA margin. By year-end, we estimate an average production between 84,000 and 86,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day before royalties and the drilling of more than 110 wells. Finally, the development of Ecopetrol's assets in the Permian Basin is carried out under two different associations with Oxy as the operator. We have one joint venture and one joint operating agreement. The joint venture began in 2019 for the assets located in the Midland area and the joint operating agreement starting in 2022 in the Delaware area. The JV for the Midland area could end during the first quarter of 2025 by unilateral decisions of one of the partners. In that case, future development activities would continue, not under the current JV, but through a new joint operating agreement in which Oxy would remain as operator, and Ecopetrol would retain its 49% interest over production and areas. We are currently having discussions with Oxy to define the future of the JV for the Midland area. Please move to the next slide.

David Riano, Executive Vice President of Transition Energy

Thank you, Rafael. From the Ecopetrol Group, we reaffirm our commitment to the country's energy security, in line with the projected deficit of national gas to meet the demand from the second-half of 2025 to 2029, ranging between 120 million and 530 million cubic feet per day. We are focused on executing our 2024-2034 gas roadmap. This involves maximizing domestic onshore and offshore production in the Caribbean, as well as exploring various alternatives related to regasification and energy imports. Among the alternatives under evaluation is the utilization of Colombia's natural gas regasification terminal SPEC LNG with a capacity of up to 530 million cubic feet per day. Other reclassification options with capacities of up to 1,030 million cubic feet per day are being considered in projects located in various areas from Buenaventura to Cartagena. Regarding gas imports, the Ecopetrol Group continues to support Colombia's branch within the framework of the contract signed in 2007 in the activities necessary to tie Antonio Ricardo gas pipeline. With the goal of importing gas in 2025, provided we have the approval of the U.S. government through OFAC. The use of any of the alternatives presents various challenges, including licensing, environmental permits, prior consultations, implementation timelines, competitiveness of alternatives, regulatory flexibility for the commercialization of imported gas, and transportation infrastructure, to name a few. As part of our efforts, we closed the first-half of 2024, with a gas and LPG production of 173,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing 23% of the group's total production and 68% market share in Colombia and an EBITDA of close to COP1.5 trillion. On the energy transition front, we highlight significant advancements in energy efficiency by the end of the first half of 2024. As of June 2024, we achieved an accumulated energy optimization of 1.2 petajoules with an impact of over 104,000 tons of CO2 equivalent and savings of nearly COP73 billion in Ecopetrol Group's operations, exceeding the annual internal target of 1.1 petajoules, thanks to significant contributions from coal and the optimization projects of the gas injection system in Cusiana among other initiatives. The energy efficiency program has accumulated 12.07 petajoules since the beginning of measurement in 2018, equivalent to the annual energy consumption of the Department of Bolivar in Colombia. On the social front, we continue working on the sustainable development of the communities where we operate. To date, our social gas program has managed to connect more than 45,000 low-income households to the natural gas network in 12 departments of Colombia with various strategic partners. By the end of 2024, we will complete 70,000 connections and sign 10 new projects in La Guajira, Bolivar, Atlantico, Arauca, Huila, Santander, Norte de Santander, and Nariño. I now turn the word over to Javier, who will discuss our Transmission and Roads business line and the main financial milestones.

Javier Cardenas, Acting CFO

Thank you, David. Now let's continue with the results of the Transmission, Roads and Telecommunication business line. In the first-half of the year, the Transmission and Roads business had gained solid financial performance, despite the impact of the Colombian peso revaluation against currencies such as the U.S. dollar, Chilean Peso and Brazilian Real. EBITDA decreased by approximately 12% compared to the first half of 2023, reaching COP4.5 trillion. However, normalizing the exchange rate conversion effect, the result surpasses those obtained in 2023. In line with our strategic diversification, the Transmission and Road’s business maintained its participation in Ecopetrol Group's results, reaching 15.9% of the group's total EBITDA for the first-half of 2024. Among the most relevant milestones for the second quarter of 2024 are: first, in Brazil ISA CTEEP was awarded 24 transmission and grid reforms, which together will amount to a CapEx of COP542 billion; second, in Colombia private contracts were assigned. The first one for the execution of the Atlantico photovoltaic connection project, which aims to connect a bay at the Sabanalarga substation in the department of Atlantico. The second to be developed through Transelca consists of connecting the Valledupar 1, 2 and 3 solar projects in the department of Cesar. The awarded projects add up to our reference CapEx of COP84 billion. Here, the entry into operation of the following projects: One in Chile, the Ruta del Loa concession and two in Brazil within the ISA CTEEP network. ISA continues to advance in the construction of Piedmont energy transmission projects. In the countries where it has a presence, they would have more than 5,380 kilometers of circuits in the network and generate approximate revenues of COP1.3 trillion between 2024 and 2030. Let's move on to the next slide to detail the group's financial performance. The net income for the first-half of 2024 increased by approximately COP2.3 trillion compared to the first-half of 2023. However, when normalizing the effect associated with external factors by COP3.3 trillion, we would have an increase of 10% leveraged by the operating results of all our business lines. The main external factors that affected net income were the lower average exchange rate and higher inflation net of the positive effect of a higher Brent price impacted EBITDA generation by COP5.3 trillion. Likewise, the net positive effect between the lower valuation of dollar-denominated debt and taxes contributed by COP2 trillion. It is important to note that during the second quarter of 2024, the additional income tax rate was adjusted from 10% to 15%, with an effect for the entire first-half of the year. On the other hand, at the end of the first-half of 2024, Ecopetrol Group's liquidity position was COP16 trillion, operating cash flow generation of COP23.1 trillion stands out where we collected the receivable from the fuel price stabilization fund for approximately COP13 trillion. Likewise, the most significant cost outflows were due to CapEx of COP8.5 trillion and net dividend payments of COP12.2 trillion, including payments from Ecopetrol SA with the Nation and minorities, as well as payments from ISA, midstream subsidiaries and Invercolsa to their noncontrolling shareholders. During the first-half of 2024, the total payment of dividends to minority shareholders of approximately COP1.5 trillion was made and COP9.1 trillion were credited to the payment of dividends to the nation, leaving a balance to be paid in the second-half of the year of COP2.2 trillion. Cash flow has had a positive impact on its working capital mainly due to two factors: higher collection from the FEPC and the continued decrease in its accumulation due mainly to the increase in the price of gasoline. Of the accumulated balance in 2023, COP7.6 trillion are still to be collected, which are expected to be collected on a quarterly basis for the rest of the 2024. With these collections and maintaining an average monthly accumulation of less than COP1 trillion, we maintain our estimate of closing the year with a balance of the FEPC between COP8 trillion and COP10 trillion, subject mainly to fluctuations in the international market price of crude oil and the exchange rate. Regarding the Decree on large diesel consumers which came into effect on August 3, we estimate that it will have a positive cash impact of approximately COP230 billion for the remainder of 2024. Likewise, any additional increase in the price of diesel directed to other consumers could contribute to further reducing the gap. Let's move to the next slide. In terms of EBITDA, the Exploration, Production, Transportation, and Refining business line stood out for maintaining the largest share of the total at 85%. It is also noteworthy that 36% of our EBITDA provides stability to the group's revenues and operating cash flow through our midstream and transmission and Road business. Regarding the management of debt maturities, we maintain a proactive dynamic in anticipating refinancing needs through debt management operations carried out in the first-half of the year. The main maturities of 2024 and 2025 were successfully managed. Likewise, in July alone COP1 trillion was disposed, and in August, we initiated a refinancing of the 2026 maturities with the announcement of the prepayment of $250 million of the bond with this operation, which would be effective on September 5. We will reduce the maturity tower to around $2,100 million and we continue to monitor the market to manage the remaining 2026 maturities. For 2024, no increase in debt levels of Ecopetrol SA is expected associated with the organic activities of the portfolio given the current level of available liquidity. On its part, the gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio closed in June at 2 times. This level remains in line with our long-term guideline where we seek to maintain a level below 2.5 times. Regarding investments, the dynamic of execution in line with the annual financial plan maintains, reaching $2,660 million for the first semester. Investments were made primarily in Colombia with a participation of 59%, the United States with 20%, and in Brazil and other countries, the remaining 21% was executed. The allocation of CapEx, the hydrocarbon business line maintains the largest contribution to execution, representing 68% of the gross total investment for exploration and production activities of the hydrocarbon line, 81% of the resources were allocated mainly in the Rubiales, Castilla, Cano Sur, and CPO09 fields and international impairment. In the refining segment, 11% of the total hydrocarbon CapEx was allocated to guarantee the continuous operation of the refineries. The transmission business, the remaining 8% was executed in maintaining our repair activities. In the energy transition line, approximately 12% of the group's total investments were allocated. Of this percentage, resources were used primarily for the growth of the gas chain with an 85% share, the Tayrona Block located off the Colombian Caribbean offshore, the Casanare department and Permian. In the same business line, 15% of CapEx was allocated to energy efficiency and renewable energy projects. Finally, in the Transmission and Roads line, investment equivalent to 20% of the gross total investments were made. Most of the investments were focused on the energy transmission business with an 83% share, Brazil, Peru, Chile, and Colombia followed by the ROACE business with 15%, and finally, telecommunication with 2%. And I'll turn the word over to Ricardo for the closing remarks.

Ricardo Roa, CEO

Thank you, Javier. I would like to close this results call by highlighting that despite the challenges of external factors, our results reflect the commitment to executing the business plan. Production and transportation figures are above the set target while the drilled and drilling wells and refinery loads remained within the expected range. Regarding financial targets, we highlight CapEx with a 47% achievement of the annual target, and we present an EBITDA margin, ROACE, and efficiency figures that exceed what was announced in the plan. The second-half of the year will be intensive investment in our exploration activity. We will continue to advance in the development of offshore gas, the management of the gas deficit for 2025 and 2026, and the acceleration of energy transition projects such as the completion of the solar project in La Cira and two projects associated with energy justice with a social impact for 1,800 people. All this with a focus on cost control and maximization of efficiencies seeking to maintain sustainable financial management over time. Finally, I thank all our employees for their high contribution to the results and you for your participation in this results call. With this, we now open the Q&A session.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We will now start the Q&A session by taking questions in Spanish first, followed by questions in English. Katherine Ortiz from Corredores Davivienda is on the line with a question. The floor is yours.

Katherine Ortiz, Analyst

Good morning everyone. Can you hear me?

Unidentified Company Representative, Company Representative

Yes, we do.

Katherine Ortiz, Analyst

Thank you for your presentation. I have a question regarding gas. We've been hearing a lot about gas shortages in Colombia. One of the strategies mentioned by Ecopetrol is to reduce gas consumption in refineries to create a surplus in the system. I would like to know more about this. Specifically, what is the estimated quantity involved? For how long will this be implemented? What impact will this have on your margins in that segment and for Ecopetrol? Additionally, will this measure truly benefit the company? That’s my question.

David Riano, Executive Vice President of Transition Energy

Good morning. Thank you for your question. I am the VP of Transition Energies. One of the possibilities our group is exploring is optimizing gas consumption. We have identified a potential efficiency of 24 cubic meters gigabytes and have already started implementing this. Looking ahead, we believe we can achieve an additional 14. This will be accomplished throughout the entire chain, downstream, as you mentioned, and at other stages as well. We can also reach this by substituting other energy sources, including utilizing more electric energy from the grid. Certainly, optimizing energy consumption requires careful capital management to ensure it is economically feasible for the group.

Daniel Guardiola, Analyst

Hello. Good morning, everyone. I have a couple of questions about the operation of Ecopetrol Permian. The first question, can you share with us why did Ecopetrol disregard the business of buying Crown Rock? And can you also provide details of the merits that the company saw in that transaction, and which were the pushbacks that one, when you disregarded this business with Crown Rock? That's my first question. Second question is also related to this business. I understand that you are dealing with Oxy since March. And this is the result that you have a JV with which gave you the option to enter into an entity agreement that Oxy had in Midland. So my question is that if you disregarded this, why don't you go through that call option to defend it in the market and go through that option? And my third question, the current operations that you have in Delaware, is it something that the company sees as strategic on a long-term basis? Or eventually, do you think after the JV ends in the first quarter of '25, you start to dismantle this operation in the state? These are my three questions.

Ricardo Barragan, CEO

Thank you, Daniel. I am the CEO of Grupo Ecopetrol. First, I want to emphasize that after thoroughly analyzing and evaluating our situation internally with corporate governance, we must remember that Ecopetrol has a significant level of debt. As of the end of July, our debt stood at $27.7 billion, approximately COP115 trillion. This high debt level positions us with an elevated EBITDA debt ratio, and our policy aims to maintain this indicator below 2.5. With the recent transaction amounting to $3.6 billion for 2025 and 2026, we are exceeding this target. Additionally, the declining oil prices could further impact this ratio. Secondly, during our evaluation of the business opportunity with Oxy to finalize this transaction, a less critical element arose. We needed the approval from the Ministry of Treasury concerning the public debt, which we had to fully leverage for the potential transaction. Through discussions with the government, we were informed that securing an approval of this debt level was unfeasible. This situation could have occurred simultaneously with the announcement of closing the deal, exposing us to a potential penalty of $270 million. Therefore, we decided not to include this asset in our ongoing evaluation of inorganic assets. There may be another opportunity next year with Oxy's announcement of acquiring 100% of the assets of CrownRock. Regarding your second question, I believe I have addressed both the first and second. We recognize the impressive metrics related to the business from a technical, economic, and environmental standpoint evaluated by our Board of Directors and internal committees. However, it's important to note that it was not unexpected for anyone that the government's current policy on exploring and exploiting non-conventional resources is no longer prioritized. Our focus has now shifted to offshore exploration and exploitation and developing projects associated with energy transition, decarbonization, and clean energy efficiency. These initiatives are included in our investment plan for 2024. I will now hand it over to Nicolas to answer your fourth and fifth questions.

Nicolas Azcuenaga, VP of Strategies and New Businesses

Thank you, Daniel. I'm Nicolas, VP of Strategies and New Businesses. Regarding the question about our dealings with Oxy since March and the option to monetize, I have two points to make. First, we began discussions with Oxy back in December when they announced their plans. I think it’s important to clarify this with the market. Second, our agreement with Oxy includes an area of mutual interest where either party bringing a new deal to that area must inform the other. The essence of the agreement is strictly between Oxy and Ecopetrol, and it does not involve bringing in third parties. The intention has always been for us to exercise that option if we choose to move forward. Now, about our long-term strategy and our operations in 2025, we still have two areas of partnership with Oxy, Midland and Delaware. Our joint venture with Midland concludes in 2025, but it’s crucial to note that while we have this joint venture, we remain independent in terms of ownership of the land, assets, and current production. We are actively discussing the possibility of extending the joint venture with Oxy, and since we own the land, we have options available. I believe that addresses your additional questions.

Alejandra Andrade, Analyst

Hello, my question is also related to Oxy. And you're talking about the debt, but making the calculations and adding the debt, it represented with that investment. I only see an increase of debt of 0.2 times. And that's even without giving the benefit of the EBITDA to those operations. So I'd like to understand if you calculate because you wanted to see if the other operations fell with the EBITDA or how did you reach that calculation that you talked about of surpassing the 2.5 times? Thank you.

Unidentified Company Representative, Company Representative

Hello, Alejandra. Good morning. Thank you for your question. Our projections that we saw align with our plans approved and how we could incorporate the COP3.7 billion estimated of additional debt led us to increases of the indicator by '25 and '26, slightly above 2.5. Here, it's important to keep in mind that these projections are at prices relatively close to what we're seeing today in the market and incorporated a big pressure on us if there was a drop or a change of the prices in the market. So in our calculations and projections, when we incorporated this in the models, we did exceed slightly in '25 and '26. Our goal is to not exceed 2.5 times the debt EBITDA indicator.

Stefania Moskia, Analyst

Thank you for your presentation. I'd like to ask more on the medium-term basis. Do you have any update? Or do you plan to make an update on your CapEx plan and production plan?

Ricardo Barragan, CEO

Thank you, Stefania. I am the CEO. Currently, we do not have any updates to announce beyond what we discussed in our first quarter call regarding production. For capital expenditures, we are still committing up to $6 million as previously mentioned, with positive developments noted as of June. In terms of production, we are aiming for 730 million barrels a day. If market conditions, particularly prices and our production levels, permit us to maintain this trajectory, we will strive to continue on this path, but we remain committed to what we outlined in the first quarter.

Andres Duarte, Analyst

Good morning and thank you for this call. I would like to ask about Reficar. We've seen reports indicating that this refinery might undergo significant maintenance. Can you share what we should anticipate in the second half of the year regarding potential burdens and whether there could be a need to import additional products? Could you also discuss the margins if this maintenance occurs? Additionally, I'd like to ask about the implications of ending the joint venture with Oxy and what it would mean for Ecopetrol maintaining ownership. Can you provide more details on the consequences of this potential decision? Thank you.

Walter Canova, VP of Refinery and Industrial Processes

Ricardo, good morning. This is Walter Canova, VP of Refinery and Industrial Processes. I would like to talk about your first question. Indeed, as we've said, we had a first-half of the year with high refinery burdens with record levels and an operational availability above 96%. As you've heard in the media, in the month of July, basically a part of August, we are programming not only in the refinery of Barrancabermeja, where we intervened one of the plants of oil. And that overhaul, it will take 40 days and we've already finished this and Barranca is already at its high production levels. As we think it will remain at those levels for the rest of the year. When it comes to Reficar, we had foreseen to make the overhaul of hydrocracker, which is one of the units that's most important of this refinery. This overhaul is foreseen to be made in 50 days, and we're in day 30 now. It's underway. So we're doing very well with that and we foresee to end it on time. At hydrocracker Cartagena, there's been no impact on the oil, the refinery remains at a capacity of 200,000 barrels a day. And we believe that it will stay like that thanks to the gas oils that we make. Undoubtedly, for Cartagena, there will be an impact on the margin because since the plant stopped, we lose conversion levels. What we see is that by the end of the year, we will end with a margin of $10 to $12 per barrel consolidated by both refineries, and we will have average loads in the range that we already stated of 420,000, 430,000 barrels a day by the end of the year after stopping Barrancabermeja, as I mentioned, which we already did, and advancing very well with Reficar and Cartagena. So I hope that this answers your questions.

Nicolas Azcuenaga, VP of Strategy and New Businesses

Good morning, Ricardo. This is Nicolas Azcuenaga, VP of Strategy and New Businesses. Regarding your second question about what will happen in 2025 with the conclusion of our joint venture with Oxy, we have four alternatives. First, we are considering expanding the joint venture. Second, we could continue working with Oxy through a joint development agreement, and I can elaborate on the differences between these options. The third alternative is for Ecopetrol to take on the role of operator, and finally, we could sell our stake in the joint venture. The joint venture involves various elements, including development plans and capital investment horizons that are longer compared to the other agreement. However, this joint agreement is standard practice for developing that basin. So, those are the four options available to us, and I believe this addresses your questions.

Rodrigo Almeida, Analyst

Hi, can you hear me? Yes, okay. So I have a couple of questions here. First one, it's regarding capital structure. So I think it would be nice if you could give us a number of more or less what I know that's not in the strategic plan that you released, but what's your minimum cash position? I think the reasoning behind my question here is that today, you have around $4 billion in cash. And then if we adjust that to the expectation of reducing the CapEx fund. This could potentially go up to around $7 billion, which would be a cash position similar to your bigger peers in the region, so if you could please give us some color on what's your running rate for cash position through the plan would be nice. My second question here is going back to the gross debt calculation regarding the CrownRock analysis. So could you just confirm to us that if you're looking at going above 2.5 times gross debt and we maintain the current gross debt, you're using a COP40 trillion EBITDA. Is that it? And also, if you could help us understand if you include in the calculation of your gross debt to EBITDA, the debt that you repaid in July also? And then finally here, just from a strategic standpoint, when you're analyzing these sort of decisions, are they always driven by gross debt to EBITDA? Or do you use any other metrics such as interest coverage ratios and other things because when we look at, for example, your capacity to cover interest, it seems very okay to us. So I wanted to understand if you incorporate other metrics as well when analyzing the sort of M&As. Thank you.

Ricardo Barragan, CEO

Good morning and thank you for your questions. As of June, we have a cash flow of COP6 billion. It's important to clarify where the $16 billion is. Approximately COP5 billion is with Ecopetrol SA, and COP7 billion is with ISA. It’s crucial to note that not all of this cash flow is from Colombia; we also have cash flow in Chile, Brazil, and Peru, which is necessary for ISA to operate and fulfill its assigned projects. When considering the available cash for hydrocarbons, it’s essential to remember that the remainder is in midstream and various corporate companies. Regarding the potential to increase our debt to EBITDA goal of 2.5 times, this has been a part of our strategy, and we evaluate it in the context of price fluctuations and the company's diversification. Currently, we have no plans to increase this goal beyond 2.5 times. When making investment decisions, besides cash flow and debt-to-EBITDA ratios, we also consider strategic lines, risk profiles, returns, potential cash flow generation, and the necessary focus on decarbonization. All of this aligns with the company's capital discipline, as managing debt is crucial to maintaining a healthy cash flow position. However, there are other factors to consider, as I have mentioned.

Rodrigo Almeida, Analyst

I have a couple of follow-up questions. Going back to the first question, what number can we use in our models for a minimum cash position for Ecopetrol Group overall? If you could assist with this, it would be appreciated. Thank you.

Ricardo Barragan, CEO

Especially at Ecopetrol, we seek to be within a range between COP2 billion and COP2.5 billion of cash flow. We believe that the COP16 billion, and if you look at it historically, compares very well. But it's not a position of cash flow that allows us. And I don't know if that's really your question. To incorporate acquisitions, entirely with our own cash flow in any case and looking at the levels of the possible transaction that we're reviewing. It wasn't possible to make the mix significantly. So that's why we always reviewed the need for debt.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I have two quick ones from my side. The first one on production outlook. You mentioned that you are not planning to update your guidance for the year. So all in all that implies a sequential decline in average output for the second half of the year. We are trying to understand what will be the reasons behind this implying sequential decline? And secondly, on CapEx, we are wondering if you could provide more details on what is the company for seeing for the balance for the end of the year? Any guidance on schedule for future receipts on the government? Or what is the company foreseeing for future accumulation from now on would be really helpful. Thank you.

Rafael Guzman, VP of Hydrocarbons

Good morning, Carlos. I'm Rafael Guzman, VP of Hydrocarbons. Thank you for your questions. Regarding cost valuation, there are two points to note. First, we've experienced an increase from the first half of last year to this year, up $2.7 per barrel, bringing us to $12.1 per barrel. This 12.7% increase is largely due to external factors like the exchange rate between the dollar and pesos, inflation, and the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which contributed to 12.4% of the total increase. We also saw operational cost increases, but these were largely offset by efficiencies and greater production. Our focus remains on achieving more efficiencies and increasing output with our existing wells. Consequently, we expect elevation costs to rise from $12 to $13 this year, but they will likely stay closer to $12. In terms of the Permian, we have already shared substantial information today. Our investments have yielded positive results, with production nearing 90,000 barrels per day. For the year, we anticipate production to be between 84,000 and 86,000 barrels per day, as most of the investment activity occurs at the beginning of the year, and production will reflect this growth toward the year's end. Thank you for your questions.

Rodrigo Almeida, Analyst

First one, it's regarding capital structure. So I think it would be nice if you could give us a number of more or less what I know that's not in the strategic plan that you released, but what's your minimum cash position? I think the reasoning behind my question here is that today, you have around $4 billion in cash. And then if we adjust that to the expectation of reducing the CapEx fund. This could potentially go up to around $7 billion, which would be a cash position similar to your bigger peers in the region, so if you could please give us some color on what's your running rate for cash position through the plan would be nice. My second question here is going back to the gross debt calculation regarding the CrownRock analysis. So could you just confirm to us that if you're looking at going above 2.5 times gross debt and we maintain the current gross debt, you're using a COP40 trillion EBITDA. Is that it? And also, if you could help us understand if you include in the calculation of your gross debt to EBITDA, the debt that you repaid in July also? And then finally here, just from a strategic standpoint, when you're analyzing these sort of decisions, are they always driven by gross debt to EBITDA? Or do you use any other metrics such as interest coverage ratios and other things because when we look at, for example, your capacity to cover interest, it seems very okay to us. So I wanted to understand if you incorporate other metrics as well when analyzing the sort of M&As. Thank you.

Ricardo Barragan, CEO

Good morning and thank you for your questions. As of June, we have a cash flow position of COP6 billion. It’s important to address where the $16 billion stands. Approximately COP5 billion is held in Ecopetrol SA and COP7 billion at ISA. This is significant because not all of this cash flow is in Colombia; we also have presence in Chile, Brazil, and Peru. This cash flow is essential for ISA's operations and project execution. When you consider the available cash for hydrocarbons, it's necessary to realize that some is allocated in midstream operations and various corporate entities. This context is important. Regarding the potential to raise our target of 2.5 times debt to EBITDA, this remains the strategy we have set. We evaluate the balance, potential price fluctuations, and the company’s diversification. Currently, we have not considered adjusting the target above 2.5 times. When deciding on investments, we take into account not only cash flow and debt-to-EBITDA ratios but also strategic guidelines, risk profiles, return potential, cash flow generation capabilities, and importantly, the need for decarbonization. All of this is framed within the capital discipline the company adheres to. Therefore, while managing debt is crucial for maintaining cash flow, we also consider these other factors.

Ricardo Roa, CEO

Thank you. There are no further questions. Now let's listen to the closing remarks of the CEO. We would like to thank you for joining us. I'd like to congratulate our great team, our executives and our thousands of workers who constantly work hard so that we can have these excellent results in every segment of our traditional activities and the operations. Again, we are committed at Grupo Ecopetrol to be firm to protect our traditional business, and to execute our investment plans, and we bet on meeting the goals and to create wealth that we've shown in recent years for the country, for our shareholders. And of course, so that Ecopetrol can still be a great energy asset that Colombia requires to leverage its projects for energy transition. Thank you very much for joining us today.

Operator, Operator

Thank you all. With this, we end our call of the results of the first-half of 2024. Now you can hang up.