Earnings Call Transcript - EC Q1 2022

Operator, Operator

Good morning. My name is Hilda, and I will be your operator today. Welcome to Ecopetrol's Earnings Conference Call in which we will discuss the main Financial and Operational Results for the First Quarter 2022. All lines have been muted. There will be a question-and-answer session at the end of the presentation. Before we begin, it is important to mention that the comments in this call by Ecopetrol's senior management include projections of the Company's future performance. These projections do not constitute any commitment as to future results nor do they take into account risks or uncertainties that could materialize. As a result, Ecopetrol assumes no responsibility in the event that future results are different from the projections shared on this conference call. The call will be led by Mr. Felipe Bayon, CEO of Ecopetrol; Alberto Consuegra, COO; and Jaime Caballero, CFO. Thank you for your attention. Mr. Bayon, you may begin your conference.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our conference call of the results for the first quarter of 2022. I am proud to announce that during this quarter, we continued to deliver historical financial results underpinned by some of the following issues. First, positive industry conditions with an average brent of $98 per barrel in the quarter, which is 60% higher than the price we have shared in the first quarter of 2021. Second, the company's efforts to capture efficiencies and savings that helped us mitigate inflationary pressures. And third, our focus on sustainable value generation for our stakeholders with a clear commitment to our TESG goals. Additionally, I would like to highlight the recent approval in the AGM of a dividend of COP11.5 trillion equivalent to COP280 per share, which represented a dividend yield of 10.4% for our shareholders and a payout of 69% of the net income of the year 2021. In the same meeting, the AGM, some changes were approved in the company's bylaws aimed at strengthening our corporate governance and giving continuity to the 2040 strategy announced a few months ago, which we have named Energy that Transforms. The changes introduced to the bylaws included, amongst others, the extension of the Board members' period from two to four years. In terms of production and after some operational and public order challenges faced at the beginning of the current year, we continue to take decisive steps on the recovery path. The production for the first quarter of the year was 692,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, whilst in March, we reached an average production of 705,000 barrels, and in April 708,000 barrels equivalent per day. All this aligned with the production target for the year between 700,000 and 705,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Although we are facing challenges in terms of higher costs and working capital requirements associated with the increase in the account receivable related to the fuel prices stabilization fund or FEPC in Spanish, whose evolution and impacts will be explained in detail by Jaime later on this call, it is important to note that none of this compromises the fulfillment of our business and investment plans for 2022. Let's go on to the next Slide. We started the year with important milestones in the four pillars of our 2040 strategy. In the strategic pillar of growing with the energy transition, I want to highlight the following: first, the success declaration of the El Nino-2 exploratory well located in the Boqueron Block in Tolima, Colombia. Second, we were awarded six new exploratory blocks located in the Santos Basin in Brazil in line with our exploratory efforts in high potential basins. Third, the authorization by the Board of Directors for the divestment of 51.8% of our participation in Invercolsa as part of our active portfolio management with the objective of reallocating capital within our strategy of energy transition. In the pillar of value generation through TESG technology environment, social and governance, I want to highlight the following. First, we joined the 1 trillion trees initiative by the World Economic Forum to contribute to the protection of biodiversity and the fight against climate change, committing to protect 30,000 hectares of forest compensate 2 million tons of CO2 equivalent and grow 12 million trees by 2030. Second, we were included for the second consecutive year in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook 2022 standing out from peers on our commitment to advancing ESG issues. Third, in line with our commitment to the disclosure of sustainability information and anticipating what will be required both locally and internationally, we released our Integrated Sustainable Management Report and the second SASB report. In the latter, we significantly increased the number of reported metrics from 156 in 2020 to 514 in the 2021 report. Fourth, the consolidation of our low emissions portfolio aligned with the delivery of value, and the objectives of the energy transition. I would like to highlight the operational start-up of the first green hydrogen production pilot in Colombia located in the Cartagena refinery with a 50-kilowatt electrolyzer with the capacity to produce some 7,300 kilograms of hydrogen per year. The energy for that equipment is coming from 270 solar panels. This will allow us to assess the technical, environmental feasibility and performance of this green hydrogen generation technology. The hydrogen produced in the pilot is being used and will continue to be used to improve the quality fuels produced at the refinery for which today we use gray hydrogen. Finally, in March, we announced our pledge to be water neutral by the year 2045 by reducing 66% of the capture of freshwater that we use in our operations, the elimination of discharges into water bodies and the compensation of 34% of the remaining water captured. In the cutting-edge knowledge pillar, we mainly highlight several key initiatives. First, the alliance with Accenture and Amazon Web Services, where we are developing an open data platform aimed at improving water management efficiency in the oil and gas industry. Second, with the support of UNIRED, we have launched the seventh version of the InnovaTe program, which focuses on leveraging technology and innovation to enhance our social, economic, environmental, and governance contributions in the areas we operate. Third, we have initiated a project to establish an innovation and technology center in the Caribbean, based in Cartagena, that will address challenges related to the energy transition and the petchem industry, with a focus on hydrogen solutions. Fourth, we have made strides in consolidating the energy tech ecosystem, highlighted by the signing of a memorandum of understanding with Tecnalia, a leading European research and technological development center. Finally, within the competitive returns pillar, I would like to underscore a few points. First, our operations in the Permian have yielded financial results, with an EBITDA of $111 million in the first quarter and an EBITDA margin of 87%. Second, Ecopetrol Trading Asia has conducted its inaugural commercial operations in Singapore, securing 1.09 million barrels of crude oil. Third, we achieved efficiencies totaling COP358 billion from various initiatives including workovers, maintenance, improvements in product and petchem margins, dilution strategies, and optimizations of lifting costs, among others. I want to express my gratitude to all Ecopetrol employees for reaching these remarkable efficiency milestones. Moving on, I would like to address the current challenges and opportunities in the market environment and their implications for Ecopetrol. While higher international crude oil prices have benefitted our results, they have also created pressures related to inflation, rising energy costs, and challenges within international logistics chains, which have impacted our operating costs and delayed project execution timelines. We are proactively working to mitigate these impacts by focusing on tight efficiencies through various measures. This includes enhancing our commercial strategy to maintain attractive realization prices despite competitive pricing conditions, solidifying our operations in the Asian market by forging new client relationships, strengthening our commercial ties, and developing a crude trading strategy for third parties. We are consistently monitoring supply price indexes and their effects on our segment projections, ensuring adequate inventory levels for critical operational expenditures and capital expenditures. Lastly, we are implementing a new contractual structure aimed at reducing volatility through long-term contracts that limit indexation to factors such as inflation. It’s important to note that there has been an increase in import volumes driven by higher domestic fuel demand and a decrease in national product supply due to scheduled refinery maintenance in Barranca and Cartagena, leading to a reduction in export volumes to meet local needs. Regarding gas performance, the increase compared to the previous quarter can be attributed to economic growth, which has led to higher gas consumption in the regulated market, particularly among households and small businesses. Now, I would like to hand over to Alberto Consuegra, who will discuss the main operational results for the quarter.

Alberto Consuegra, COO

Thank you, Felipe. During the first quarter of 2022, along with our partners, we drilled seven exploratory wells in Colombia. The success of the appraisal well, El Nino-2 located in the Boqueron Block, department of Tolima operated by Perenco confirmed the extension of the discovery El Nino-1 in the Guadalupe Formation by finding 27 degree API crude oil. On the other hand, the Pilonera-1 well was sealed and abandoned. The cumulative production from exploratory wells in initial and extensive tests reached 220,000 barrels of oil equivalent at the end of the first quarter 2022, 2,453 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average. 33% of the production of the quarter corresponded to oil and 67% to gas. On March 11th, the Cupiagua XD 45 well operated by Ecopetrol and located in the Piedemonte Llanero was spotted. This is the second exploratory well in the area to search for gas unlike crude in the vicinity of the Cupiagua field. We highlight the reactivation of the Caribbean offshore exploration in Colombia with two wells being drilled simultaneously, Gorgon-2, where we seek to verify the extent of the gas sands discovered in Gorgon-1 back in 2017, and Uchuva-1 at an approximate well depth of 837 meters and located 32 kilometers from the coast of the Municipality of Palomino in the department of La Guajira. Concerning the international exploratory activity, on March 28th, Ecopetrol Brazil formalized the concession contract of the S-M-1709 block, which represents the first step of a position and strategy in the southern region of the Santos basin. Additionally, in this same basin, during the third permanent offer cycle of the ANP held on April 13th, six offshore blocks were awarded to Ecopetrol Brazil. Our subsidiary will have a 30% stake and Shell, the operator, will have the remaining 70%. With this new participation, Ecopetrol is now a partner in 12 blocks in Brazil. Can we please move on to the next Slide. In order to meet the 2040 Ecopetrol Group strategy, a new operating model for the upstream segment exploration, production, projects, and drilling, including the creation of the upstream Vice Presidency, which seeks to guarantee an integrated vision for the segment, greater regional autonomy, more synergy with the subsidiaries, higher efficiency in the CapEx execution and reduce time to market from exploratory finding to first commercial hydrocarbon. On production, we had some challenges at the beginning of the year due to the maintenance of the Cupiagua gas plant and the impacts associated with some blockades mainly in the Yarigui, Capachos, and CPI Suroriente fields. By March and April, production has been stabilized at over 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. As Felipe said, we are now in line with the goal set out for the year. It is important to highlight that the organic investments in the segment for the quarter amounted to $603 million and these are in line with the plan and in accordance with the project activity set. The gas and LPG business is progressing and the fulfillment of the announced balance plan with a significant contribution to the total production of the Ecopetrol Group, reaching 22% during the first quarter with an average production of 152,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Let's go to the next slide, please. In the Permian Basin, results were achieved in line with the year's activity plan. We reached the total gross production of more than 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and more than 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to Ecopetrol before royalties. From an environmental perspective, 2.1 million barrels of water were recycled in completion operations and up to 35% of the diesel used in the activity was replaced for compressed natural gas reducing the greenhouse emissions of the project. With regards to unconventional reservoirs in Colombia, the ANLA granted the environmental license for the Kale project on March 25th. The license is expected to be in force by the second half of the year once the Environmental Authority has reviewed the claims presented by the third parties involved. With respect to the ruling of the first quarter of Barrancabermeja that suspended the license, Ecopetrol filed an appeal within the corresponding legal term. Concerning the Platero project, we are waiting for the dates of the hearings in relation to the environmental impact study, which was presented back in February of this year. In Ecopetrol, we are convinced of the importance of unconventional reservoirs in terms of energy security for the country. That is why we will advance in the activities related to the pilot projects, including the communication scenarios with the communities and other stakeholders to disclose the progress and resolve the doubts and concerns regarding the projects. Please move on to the next Slide. The volume of crude oil transported increased by 24,000 barrels per day as compared to the first quarter of the previous year, mainly associated with the entry of crude oils from the Nare Association into the Vasconia Barrancabermeja refinery system and the capture of additional barrels that are entering from the Llanos pipeline. On the other hand, the transported volume of refined products of the first quarter increased by 9,000 barrels per day, as compared to the same quarter of 2021. To increase the operational storage capacity at the Pozos Colorados terminal, the construction of the tank with a nominal capacity of 260,000 barrels was completed in March of this year. This tank built by using the hoist ring system has a geodesic roof of 61 meters in diameter and 13 meters high being the largest geodesic tank built in Colombia. The construction of the tank involved the active participation of 62 women, representing 42% of the workforce. With the transport of refined products through the oriented pipeline and the construction of the Apiay truck gathering station, the goal of transporting 3,300 barrels of fuels per day to a Meta department was exceeded with the possibility of reaching up to 5,500 barrels per day due to the increase in demand in the area. Finally, the co-dilution projects in Apiay and Cusiana enabled the use of LPG as a diluent for crude oils through facilities assembled within the plants. This service generated significant economic benefits to Ecopetrol Group and clients representing savings in dilution costs during the first quarter of 2022. Let's move to the next Slide, please. The Downstream segment reached record results on its quarterly EBITDA of COP1.6 trillion, the highest EBITDA margin since 2016, reaching 9.6% on the highest integrated gross margin of the refineries in the last five years at $13.9 per barrel. These results were leveraged on a stronger product basket versus Brent, inventory optimization and efficient commercial strategy, integrated planning of the logistics chain, financial discipline, and cost control. During the first quarter of the year, scheduled shutdowns were performed in both refineries to ensure operational availability and increase the reliability of the assets, along with an outstanding HSE performance. We currently reached a successful execution of 60% of the 2022 maintenance plan. This intensive shutdown cycle had an anticipated impact on the throughput level for the first quarter, as well as for the current quarter. The Cartagena refinery recorded a historical quarterly EBITDA record reaching COP745 billion with a gross margin of $18.6 per barrel. On February 18th, we celebrated the 100 anniversary of the Barrancabermeja Refinery, a strategic state asset which has been supplying the demand for clean fuels within the country supplying the production of petrochemicals for the national industry and acting as a leading force of the national economy. In Esenttia, the positive trend in results continues due to the realization of margins between polypropylene and refinery grade propylene, the increase in the level of raw material deliveries by the refineries and the distribution of final products in regions for values higher. Let's move to the next Slide, please. During the first quarter of the year, efficiencies of COP358 billion were achieved within a comprehensive strategy focused on mitigating the inflationary effects that the global economy is experiencing as previously mentioned by Felipe. Inflation has mainly impacted the purchase of materials, oil services, infrastructure maintenance and the cost of energy. The Group's competitiveness and efficiency strategies have managed to mitigate the impact of inflation on EBITDA by more than 70%. At the end of the first quarter of 2022, we have achieved savings with a positive effect on EBITDA for COP318 billion, as compared to an impact of COP440 billion associated with inflation. The lifting cost experienced an increase of 15%, mainly associated with the increase in operations after the release of restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic and increase in energy tariff, which grew by 18%. In relation to the cost per barrel transported, the increases in prices were offset by a lower unitary cost due to the higher volume transported, as well as the effect of a higher exchange rate by re-expressing costs in pesos to dollars. Our total unit cost naturally reflects the effect of higher Brent prices on crude oil and product imports. It also reflects the effect of the increased activity on the fixed component of our costs. I now give the floor to Jaime Caballero, who will talk about the main financial results of the Ecopetrol Group.

Jaime Caballero, CFO

Thanks, Alberto. For the first quarter 2022, the Group's net income closed at COP6.6 trillion, a record high quarterly result, compared to the fourth quarter 2021 results, the following aspects stand out. Firstly, a COP2.2 trillion increase in EBITDA in line with a stronger price environment, outstanding refining margins, ISA's contribution, excellent operating and financial results for the Permian, and COP358 billion in operating efficiencies. All of that, despite ongoing maintenance in some units in both refineries, higher product imports, strong inflationary pressures, a rise in working capital requirements, mainly driven by the increase in the accounts receivable from the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund or FEPC for its Spanish acronym and higher global competition on the supply of crude oils addressed to Asia. Secondly, non-recurring events of COP0.3 trillion, due to the write-off of the Rydberg project in Ecopetrol America as a result, the decision to relinquish its development following the technical and economic feasibility analysis. And thirdly, higher income tax provisions due to stronger results and an increase in the nominal taxation rate from 31% to 35% as a result of the tax reform approved last year. Please let's move onto the next Slide to see the main financial KPIs. Amongst the metrics for the oil and gas business, which exclude ISA's contribution, the EBITDA per barrel stands out closing at $57.2, which represents an increase of $19.3 per barrel versus the first quarter of 2021 explained by higher sales prices of crude and products basket. On the other hand, the net income breakeven closed at $35.2 per barrel, registering an increase of $1.8 per barrel, mainly due to a higher volume of purchased products, lower throughput in refineries and an increase in financial expenses. Amongst ISA's KPIs, the EBITDA margin excluding construction stands out closing at 83.5% as a result of higher operating revenues driven by the positive impact of macroeconomic variables in Brazil and Colombia. The entry into operation of energy transmission projects following the first quarter of 2021 and a growth in operating costs below the variation in operating revenues, among others. ISA's return on equity for the first quarter of 2022 was 11% in line with the plan. This will represent a reduction in contrast to the first quarter of 2021 as the latter incorporates a non-recurring benefit associated with the periodic tariff review and adjustments to the basic network of the existing system in the Brazilian subsidiary Setefi. Finally, I would like to highlight some results at a consolidated level. A historic EBITDA margin driven by higher realization prices in our crude oils and products and ISA's consolidation our royalty, which continues to be above double-digit levels closing at 14.5%. The best result recorded in the first quarter in the company's history. This result is explained by a higher operating income, partially offset by an increase in taxes and capital employed. Thirdly, on the EBITDA contribution by segment, the downstream results are particularly noteworthy, setting a historical record, thanks to positive market differentials for products, especially gasoline, diesel, and jet, and likewise, the growing participation of the electric power transmission and Toll Roads Concession segment providing greater stability to the Group's operational cash generation. Fourthly, I'd like to highlight the gross debt to EBITDA ratio, which closed at 1.8 times explained by stronger EBITDA performance. This provides Ecopetrol with greater financial flexibility and remains aligned with an indicator below 2.5 times by year end. Please let's go to the next Slide to discuss the cash position. At the end of the first quarter of 2022, Ecopetrol registered a cash position of COP16.5 trillion. The most relevant movements of the year so far have been. Firstly, operating cash flow of COP3.8 trillion that excludes the pending balance of COP6.3 billion associated with the account receivable from FEPC generated during the first quarter of 2022. Second, the outflow of COP3.4 trillion, mainly due to higher organic investments, highlighting the increase in drill development wells and workovers within the hydrocarbon business with a larger investment level versus the first quarter of 2021 with CapEx efficiencies for COP40 billion. Thirdly, debt payments mainly related to interest and amortizations for COP1.2 trillion, and lastly, dividend payments for COP0.3 trillion made by our subsidiaries to non-controlling shareholders. Regarding the dividends approved by the General Shareholders' Meeting on March 30, 2022 for COP280 per share, we can confirm that in April the following payments were made: 100% of the minority shareholders for COP1.32 trillion and the first installment to the nation for COP1.58 trillion. Please let's move to the next Slide to discuss the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund and its current effect on the company's cash position. This fund was created in 2007 and is a mechanism that the government uses to mitigate the potential impacts that market volatility within the international crude and product prices can have on Colombian households and businesses. The current accumulated balance is due to a sudden rise in international prices as a consequence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, combined with the inflationary scenario in Colombia caused by the post-pandemic economic reactivation and the international supply crisis. The implementation of this mechanism allows the Group to access realization prices and can get margins out of international references by recognizing the GAAP or differential between the international price and the local price of fuels such as gasoline and diesel. Through the application of an established formula periodically reviewed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the FEPC seeks to stabilize fuel prices for Colombian consumers mitigating the impacts that fluctuations in international prices may generate on operating costs, inflation, and economic growth. The payment of this differential implies periodic settlement, and if there is a balance in favor of the Ecopetrol Group, the payment will be made from the national budget available funds for this purpose. Currently, the regulations do not establish specific payment dates, but historically, the government has honored this obligation in periods of less than one year. The last payment dispersed by the government was in December 2021 of the outstanding accounts of the first and second quarters of 2021. As of today, the balance of the account receivable amounts to COP14.1 trillion including COP7.8 trillion of the outstanding balance of the second half of 2021 currently under review by the Ministry of Mines for its liquidation. For the first quarter of 2022, 50% of the sales volume corresponded to exports and 20% to national territory sales exempt of subsidy. The percentage of sales that is winding the accumulation of a bank receivable is therefore 30%, corresponding to total local sales of gasoline and diesel. Of each barrel sold by Ecopetrol of gasoline and diesel, the company recognized a cash income of about 50% and 37% of accrued income respectively, while the rest went to the account receivable given the current price levels of both products in Colombia to end consumers. Ecopetrol has been working together with relevant government entities with a clear objective of having the balance of the bank recognized and paid. Additionally, and with the goal of not compromising the current investment plan, we have activated a contingent financing plan for potential temporary liquidity mismatches. Any marginal debt will comply with the maximum leverage metrics released in the 2040 strategy. We consider that this liquidity situation is statutory to the extent that the National Government announced on April 20th its full commitment to pay this deficit using different sources and tools such as excess funds of the Ministry of Finance budget estimates and debt service, higher Ecopetrol dividends than those estimated in the National Journal budget, and inclusion of the outstanding sum of the account receivable in the 2023 budget. In addition, the government announced its intention to publish a draft decree with a new proposal for our pricing methodology. Payment terms on a convergence path for prices. Finally, it is important to note that Ecopetrol is carrying out an analysis of additional operational alternatives that can protect cash such as controlling certain sales in frontier areas and certain restrictions on imports. I now pass the floor to Felipe for his closing remarks.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Jaime. Before we conclude, I want to highlight our strong corporate governance practices. Our dedication to developing and implementing corporate governance policies has been essential for managing the Ecopetrol Group as a world-class organization. These policies go beyond political cycles and align with the company’s strategy. Our corporate governance policies are designed for the long term and include multiple layers of protection to maintain vital strategic elements. This safeguards the value for every shareholder and other stakeholders, which is central to our decision-making process. The governance mechanisms ensure strategic consistency and contribute to reliability and stability. I want to emphasize several key mechanisms: First, our succession policy and the skill and experience matrix for the Board of Directors. Second, the nomination of two Directors by the oil and gas production departments and minority shareholders. Third, a historical clause to keep at least three directors in the next Board term. Fourth, the independence of Board members exceeds legal requirements. Fifth, the CEO succession policies. Lastly, the succession program and talent map for senior management's first line. Please look at the next slide for closing remarks. This year started with record financial results that align with our expectations outlined in the 2040 Strategy. In terms of social responsibility in all the regions where we operate, both in Colombia and elsewhere, we aim to go beyond mere profit generation to foster shared value for all our stakeholders. The Ecopetrol Group continues to show its resilience and strength across technical, financial, and operational aspects. We are dedicated to seizing opportunities in the macro-environment while proactively addressing various initiatives to manage the challenges of our evolving landscape. We are committed to enhancing our competitiveness with an ongoing focus on the targets in our business plan. Thank you for being with us today for this conference call. I appreciate your interest in Ecopetrol, and I will now open the floor to the Q&A session.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Alberto Consuegra, COO

Complying with the current conditions and plan is a challenge. There are concerns regarding payments that could be impacting some of our operations, especially the Cupiagua plans related to LPG production. Additionally, social unrest is affecting us in ways that are beyond our control, but we believe that by proactively managing awareness, we can mitigate its impact on our production levels. This summarizes our current situation regarding production. As for the refining margin outlook, it is still very strong. I can report that we have completed around 60% of our scheduled maintenance activities in the first quarter of this year. This indicates that we will have higher throughput in both refineries for the remainder of the year, which will support our strong margins. Additionally, the forecast for truck prices and other fuels like gasoline and diesel suggests that we can expect solid margins in the upcoming three quarters.

Jaime Caballero, CFO

Thank you, Alberto. I'll continue from where you left off regarding the FEPC question. Bruno, it's good to hear from you, and I’ll address your question in a more comprehensive manner to provide a broader perspective on our approach. First, as I previously mentioned, the balance due at the end of the first quarter this year totals COP14.1 trillion, covering the remainder of last year, specifically the third and fourth quarters, as well as the first quarter of this year. We are accruing at a rate of approximately COP2 trillion per month, which means we expect the balance to reach between COP25 trillion to COP30 trillion by the end of the year. We are fully confident in recovering this balance because we have been in discussions with the Ministry of Finance over the past months. The Ministry has publicly acknowledged this balance due and the protections I have referred to, making this information available to the public. Three key elements provide clarity on how this will be addressed. First, there is transparency regarding the funding mechanisms for the balance, which I mentioned earlier. This includes surpluses from the current year's budget, where the government is under executing its planned expenditures. Second, tax revenues are significantly higher than expected. Third, there is an excess in Ecopetrol dividends compared to the original plan. Additionally, there is an opportunity to incorporate the accrued balance of this year into next year’s approved budget. The government's pathways to address this issue are well defined. Another aspect that strengthens our confidence is that the government has announced a collaborative roadmap with the Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Finance concerning the alignment of international and domestic prices. We are involved in these discussions by providing technical solutions, and we believe this initiative is progressing well. Furthermore, the government intends to issue a decree with detailed regulations that will clarify future funding sources and payment timelines. Overall, we view this as encouraging news, signaling a clear direction from the National Government on how this matter will be handled. Regarding your question about a maximum timeline, while the current regulations do not specify timelines, there is a historical precedent. The FEPC has been in effect for over 14 years, and traditionally, balances are recognized within a 12-month period. In line with this, I am pleased to share that the detailed accounts for the third quarter of 2021 were agreed upon with the Ministry of Mines earlier this week, which is another positive indication of progress. Therefore, we anticipate a recognition of the debt balance from the latter half of last year shortly, consistent with historical practices. I appreciate your patience, as I wanted to provide a thorough explanation on this matter. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Jaime. And I think it's very relevant that will provide us much context and color around a subject that we know it's absolutely relevant and timely. So, thanks for that. Can we please go to the next question? And thanks, Bruno.

Anne Milne, Analyst

Thank you very much and congratulations on the good results this quarter. I wanted to ask you something a little different, maybe on your hydrogen strategy and maybe what your future plans are for investment and production and what we can expect there going forward. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Anne, and good to have you here in the call today. So I'm going to ask Yeimy Baez, who actually happens to be in Rotterdam today you know. She is visiting one of the largest hydrogen projects in the world and she came back from Chile a couple of days ago. So lots of things happening with hydrogen. So Yeimy, can you help us? Please go ahead.

Yeimy Baez, Head of Hydrogen Projects

Thank you for your question. Last year, we defined our strategic plan for the entire group, which was approved by our Board of Directors and Executive Committee last December. The positive development is that various companies globally are willing to collaborate with Ecopetrol on different projects in Colombia and throughout Latin America. We are in the process of selecting suitable partners for Ecopetrol, and we will be announcing them in a couple of weeks. Our focus is on three main areas. First, we aim to decarbonize our hydrogen production at our refineries. Currently, we produce around 130,000 tons of hydrogen annually, with 90% being gray hydrogen and 10% blue, as we capture and sell the CO2 to beverage industries in Colombia. We intend to implement low-emission technologies to reduce emissions in our downstream segment. Second, we believe sustainable mobility presents a growth opportunity for hydrogen in Colombia, and we are committed to supporting local demand development. Third, we see potential to establish an exporting hub in Colombia for hydrogen-related products, including EPOs and ammonia. We are actively collaborating with other companies in Colombia targeting these markets. In summary, we have a $6 million investment plan for 2022, with the first pilot deployed at our refinery in Cartagena. We are moving quickly to initiate industrial-scale projects in Colombia, which we believe will be transformative for the future and for Ecopetrol's role in this global energy challenge.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Yeimy. Thanks for the update, and thanks, Anne. Can we go to the next question, please?

Andrew McCarthy, Analyst

Good day, and thank you, Felipe, Jaime, and Alberto for the presentation and the chance to ask questions. First, I would like to inquire about the progress of CapEx execution for this year. The business plan outlines a target of $4.8 billion to $5.8 billion for the year. I noticed that the figure for the first quarter is just below $1 billion. Should we interpret this as a seasonally lower figure, or does it suggest a possible reduction in plans for this year? Additionally, as we approach the halfway point of the year, are you adjusting your CapEx focus across the various segments of the business? Is it still in line with what you've discussed in recent months? On a related note, Jaime, regarding the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund, you mentioned it might reach around COP25 billion to COP30 billion this year. Is that figure based on the current balance plus expected accruals for the remaining nine months, or does it account for amounts already repaid by the government? That's all from me. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Andrew, and thanks for being here. Thanks for your question. So I'm going to ask Alberto to take the first one on CapEx and then Jaime to expand on the FEPC. Alberto?

Alberto Consuegra, COO

Thanks, Felipe. Andrew, good morning. Regarding CapEx execution, the first quarter is typically seasonal, which is consistent with our plans once again for this quarter at the Ecopetrol Group. When we assess the activity set, we have achieved what we intended for the upstream sector. However, we did experience some delays in both the downstream and midstream activities, which we aim to address in the upcoming quarters. It's important to note that we reached the highest level of execution in the last seven years during this first quarter, accomplishing about 85% of our planned targets. We are still within the official range of $4.8 billion to $5.8 billion for 2022, and we do not anticipate any changes in CapEx execution across any segment.

Jaime Caballero, CFO

Thank you, Alberto. I'm going to take, Andrew, your question on FEPC. Thanks, good to hear you, man. A couple of things, your question is basically what's the basis of projection and the COP25 trillion to COP30 trillion range in pesos that I mentioned, I'm referring to the 2022 accrual, right? Because essentially we are accruing at a rate every month of about COP2 trillion to COP2.5 trillion depending on behavior, so that's what that projection refers to. I think that the uncertainty around the projection going forward and clearly there is a number of months ahead of us, it will depend on three factors. I think, of course, the evolution of international prices are going to be a factor in the formula. The exchange rate is a massive factor in the formula. It can create a strong behavior upward. And of course, the third element is the degree to which domestic prices are adjusted, which is something that we are expecting. It’s something that we are expecting as it's part of this, if you will, convergence path, that the Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Finance have announced to bridge the gap between international prices and domestic prices at the pump. I hope this helps. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Jaime. Do we have any more questions?

Luis Carvalho, Analyst

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the question and thanks also for the very detailed presentation. We really appreciate the level that you guys provided. Basically two questions from my end. A couple of days ago, a report stated that Colombia will lose its energy independence within five years under the policies proposed by one of the candidates. And of course, due to Ecopetrol's relevance, you would be the most impacted company, right? So I just wonder if you can provide more color on how the company can protect its ongoing operations from a governance perspective in the case that the government wants to change dramatically the landscape of the energy industry in the country? The second one goes on capital allocation, as we think about dividends and towards the 2022 outlooks for the company, and how we should see the dividends on the back of the investments that we announced and potential acquisitions and portfolio diversification? Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Luis, and I'll take the first one. So in terms of energy independence and I'll give you some of the context and some of this was already included in the material, but I think your point is a very relevant one. So the first one is we are seeing, indeed, the increased demand in Colombia in terms of gasoline, in terms of diesel and it's in the range of 25% more both in gasoline and diesel, compared to pre-COVID numbers. So there is a lot of demand. We are actually in the first days of putting our crude oil into the expanded Cartagena Refinery. We're taking that refinery from 150,000 to 200,000 barrels a day. So formal and official operation will take some weeks, but we're already managed to put crude into that project, which we did under COVID and everything else. So I think first point I want to make, Luis, is that Ecopetrol is fully aligned and synchronized with the needs of the country in terms of fulfilling demand. And I need to say that I'm very respectful about the presidential campaigns and the election processes so I won't comment on that. But I do want to comment that we have a long-term strategy that you guys know that we published a couple of months ago. The energy that transforms 2040 Strategy. And from that point of view, you see that the company will continue to grow, even though we're largely present in Colombia, we now have a lot of investments, a lot of activity outside of Colombia as well. Mainly with these, but also in terms of things like fracking in Texas in the U.S. and things like Brazil. So we're diversified both in terms of geographies and in terms of businesses as well. And then the last thing I want to share with you, Luis, which is probably not that well known is that with the current existing portfolio of exploration opportunities, we can have eight to ten years of activity in front of us. We have more than 250 opportunities identified in what we call the hopper. So basically with the 68 existing licenses and areas that we have under contract with the government in Colombia, I think it's 48 Ecopetrol and 20 Hocol, we have sufficient runway in front of us and I think that's important. So we're very confident. I think we have a very solid strategy and that's importantly, we've demonstrated with the current results that we have a sound plan, more importantly, a very resilient and consistent deliveries in terms of how to implement that plan. So, Jaime, I think the other one is probably for you. If you can give us a bit of color. Thanks.

Jaime Caballero, CFO

Thank you, Felipe. Hello, Luis. Thank you for your question. And so, let me address capital allocation strategy. I would start basically by saying that the capital allocation strategy is unchanged as portrayed in the strategy to 2040 that we announced earlier this year. Now, that strategy portraits very clearly what our access is, strategic access is. We have prioritized four pillars in it, which are well aware of. We have an ambition to grow in a sustainable way, building our know-how and delivering competitive returns, that's what we're all about. And now, when we look at how this year is performing so far, it is very clear that we're having an extremely robust year. It's probably going to be a historical year for Ecopetrol, and we are well ahead of the '22 to 2024 plan. That creates certain surpluses to the plan, we see that. And the way that I would share with you how we're thinking about it is that we see this kind of ranking, if you will, of priorities. Firstly, we need to deliver our investment plan, our existing investment plan. That's where we're focused on right now. So that's going to get prioritized in any shape or form. Secondly, we continue to look at further growth opportunities, whether they are in the hydrocarbon business or in the ISA's business. Thirdly, we are also conscious of our balance sheet and we continue to look at opportunities to optimize our debt position with this existing plan. And fourthly, to go to your question, dividends, right? I think that in a year like the one that we're having, additional dividend payments can occur. As you know, our dividend policy states a very clear range for ordinary dividends, but in extraordinary circumstances, it does accommodate for extraordinary distributions. At this stage and given where we are in May and given what our working capital situation is and the conversations that we have around FEPC, in particular, I would say that it would be premature to determine anything around extraordinary dividends, but I think that depending on how that cash exposure to FEPC evolves over the coming months, that might be a conversation to be had. I hope this helps. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Jaime. Can we please go to the next question?

Barbara Halberstadt, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thank you for the very detailed presentation. Some of my questions have already been answered. So I wanted to follow-up on something different. If you could comment in terms of your commercial strategy for the placement of crude internationally, if you're seeing opportunities in new markets and how you're thinking about that especially with the China and all the volatility we're seeing international demand. And also, if you could comment, there have been some headlines of one plant in the U.S. that is likely to close in the next two years, a refining plant that uses a lot of the Ecopetrol oil, and how you're thinking about diversifying the markets you supply to? Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Barbara, and thanks for being here today. And I will ask Pedro, if you take the question and help us with the answer. Please go ahead.

Pedro Gutierrez, Commercial Director

Thank you, Barbara, for your question. Let me provide some background on our company's commercial strategy, which focuses on diversifying destinations and prioritizing end users. We aim to place our barrels at the refineries of our customers and have contracts in all key global markets to ensure we can deliver our barrels to areas that yield the best returns for Ecopetrol. This approach has been successful in recent years and remains consistent. Additionally, we recently began operations in our new commercial office in Singapore to target the Asian market. Last year, over 60% of our exports went to this region, which is experiencing the most significant growth globally. Our exports are primarily directed to destinations in Asia, including China, India, Korea, Japan, and Brunei, where we have important customers. My team and I visited Singapore and Korea last week and are optimistic about the opportunities in these rapidly recovering economies. Regarding the Houston refining facility owned by LyondellBasell, we have received formal notice that they will be closing the refinery, which has been one of our main customers in the U.S. Gulf Coast since 2008. To replace this customer, we are concentrating on three areas. First, we believe oil demand will persist and be picked up by other regional customers as demand in the U.S. continues to grow. We are already identifying and engaging with some of these potential customers to place our barrels in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Second, our Singapore office is working to expand our customer base in Asia, and we are confident that some of our barrels can be placed there. Lastly, we have signed a deal with Repsol to supply crude to their system in Spain. With the current market conditions due to Russian sanctions, Europe is diversifying its crude oil sources, making it an attractive market for us. That covers our strategy in response to your questions. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Pedro and thanks Barbara for your question. Can we please move on to the next one?

Badr El Moutawakil, Analyst

Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on the earnings today. I have two follow-up questions, since my initial inquiries have been addressed. The first pertains to the stability fund. I appreciate the update on the timing of the payment, but I'm curious about the implications if a new government is elected in Colombia in the next month or two. There's currently no legal restriction that prevents the government from making payments for the Stability Fund. I'm trying to consider potential scenarios here. I recognize the efforts made, such as changing the bylaws to increase board member terms from two to four years for greater independence, which may reduce sovereign involvement. However, could a new Colombian government decide to halt these payments, or are they mandated by law? My second question is about your funding strategy. A couple of quarters ago, you mentioned monitoring market conditions to manage redemptions, especially with COP1.8 billion maturing in September 2023. Considering current unfavorable market conditions and rising funding costs, how do you plan to approach the market for debt management, especially with the substantial cash you have and upcoming redemptions? Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Yes. Go ahead, Jaime.

Jaime Caballero, CFO

Thank you for your question, Badr. It's great to hear from you. Regarding the stability fund, I want to emphasize that the outstanding accounts are legally binding. The regulations surrounding the FEPC clearly state that this money is owed to Ecopetrol, a fact acknowledged by the Ministry. We do not foresee any scenario in which a future government would disregard the amounts due. The uncertainty lies only in the timing and methods of payment. There is absolutely no doubt about the debt itself. If a government chose not to fulfill these obligations, it would be considered a default, and Ecopetrol would have the right to take legal action, which we are ready to pursue. Thankfully, the current government is not in that situation, and as I have mentioned throughout this call, they are proactively addressing the balances and have identified ways to honor both past debts and those currently accruing. It is crucial to stress that this is a clear and binding obligation. As for our funding strategy, you have captured it well, Badr. We have several expirations coming up in the next 18 months, spaced out in a manner that provides us with flexibility to take advantage of various market conditions, and we are preparing for this. Our financing capabilities are strong, and we can utilize a range of instruments for liability management, including both short-term and long-term credits and bonds, with an interest in sustainable bonds as well. We will capitalize on market opportunities as they emerge. Importantly, we are also collaborating with the Ministry of Finance to ensure we have the necessary approvals to access the markets when such opportunities present themselves. Thank you very much.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Jaime. Thanks for the answer. And Badr, thanks for the question. If we can go to the next one, please.

Hernan Goicochea, Analyst

Hello, can you hear me? Hello?

Felipe Bayon, CEO

We can. Go ahead.

Hernan Goicochea, Analyst

Hello? Okay. Sorry, I wasn't sure. Well, first of all, I just want to say congratulations on the first-quarter earnings. My question is following up, you mentioned the interest in the sale of 51.8% and Invercolsa. I had a follow-up question regarding that. When is Ecopetrol expected for the sale to finalize the sale? How much is that looking to earn and what was the proceeds be used for?

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Hernan, I'm going to ask Nicolas Azcuenaga, our VP of New Businesses and Strategy to give you an answer, but we will not disclose numbers in terms of expected proceeds, but we can talk about the process and the timing and everything else. So, Nicolas, if you can go ahead?

Nicolas Azcuenaga, VP of New Businesses and Strategy

Yes, Felipe. Thank you. Hi, Hernan, good morning to you and thank you very much for your questions. In terms of the timeline, we are going to go through the process that is called Law 336 in Colombia, and that includes two phases, one, its democratic phase and the second one is through the rest of the interested parties, and that will take us up until the remaining of this year. That's the timeline expected for the sale of Invercolsa. As Felipe said we won't be disclosing expected values at this point in time. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Nicolas and Hernan thanks for the question. Do we have any further questions?

Andres Cardona, Analyst

Hi, Felipe, Jaime. One quick question, it’s about the fuel price sterilization outlook for the second quarter of the year. How much are you expecting from the government to be amortized in the second Q?

Jaime Caballero, CFO

Hi, Andres. How are you? It's Jaime here. On the FEPC, as I mentioned previously, we are accruing monthly a balance of about COP2 trillion, give or take that's the rate at which the balance is accumulating. How much of the previous balance is going to be amortized, to use your language, I think that, as I mentioned previously, the balance for the third quarter of last year is well on track for that. Possibly, the balance for the fourth quarter as well. Will it come in, in the second quarter of this year or in the third quarter of this year, I don't know. I think it's progressing, but I do believe that it's going to be somewhere over the next few months that the balance of last year is going to be finalized. Thank you.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thanks, Jaime. Do we have any additional questions?

Operator, Operator

We have one last question. It's from Mr. Andres Duarte from Corficolombiana.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Go ahead.

Andres Duarte, Analyst

Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. These are two very short questions, and again, congratulations for the outstanding results for all of the Ecopetrol's employees. These questions are related to medium-long-term views of the company for energy transition and gas production. So, the first one related to energy transition is that in Colombia only about a fifth of the final energy consumption is related to power generation, the rest is liquid fuels, gas, coal, and biomass, and the share of liquid fuels is actually more than 40%. So, I was wondering for the long-term view of the company or for the strategic plan, are you expecting a decline in the consumption of liquid fuels at some point before 2040? That's the first question. And the other one related to gas production is, if we assume that the shale pilot does okay from an economic standpoint as of today, is the company expecting the future local gas production to come more from the shale production or from the offshore reserves? Those are the two questions. Thank you very much, and again, congratulations.

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Thank you, Andres. We'll pass those on to the team. Regarding the overall context of energy transition, I'd like to share some data points from when we introduced our 2040 strategy a couple of weeks ago. Diesel consumption, primarily used by trucks for transporting goods on roads, is expected to see an increasing demand trend until 2040. This is partly due to the complexities involved in switching to different energy sources for trucks. While we will see developments in intra-city transportation, including gas trucks and some electric vehicles, we believe diesel use will continue to grow. I should also mention that we are collaborating with Fanalca to build the first hydrogen bus in Colombia, which is currently in progress. For gasoline, we anticipate a peak around 2031 to 2033, and while forecasts may change, we expect consumption to remain flat for a few years before declining slightly. These points inform the long-term strategy we have in place. As we noted, we aim to grow our EBITDA by 40%, rising from COP9 billion to COP10 billion, and eventually reaching COP14 billion, with up to 50% of that EBITDA coming from low-emission businesses. I hope this clarifies our direction. Regarding production from unconventional sources and offshore, we have a diverse mix. Based on our strategy, we expect production to range from 800,000 to 850,000 barrels by the 2030 milestone. This includes a portion from our current base production and from Enhanced Oil Recovery, which accounted for 38% of our production in the first quarter. Ecopetrol has strong expertise in this area. Additionally, we are pursuing unconventional production in the U.S. and Colombia, as well as offshore exploration in the Caribbean. Overall, we are assessing at least five contributing factors to meet our production goals, aiming for a range of 700,000 to 750,000 barrels by the end of the strategy period in 2040. There are many initiatives underway, especially with the reactivation in Piedemonte, where we are investing significantly in gas. It's been 26 years since we've operated two offshore rigs drilling and a long time since we had five rigs active in Piedemonte. There's a lot happening in this area, Andre. Thank you for the question. Do we have any additional questions, Hilda?

Operator, Operator

Thank you, Mr. Bayon. We have no further questions. Do you have any final remarks?

Felipe Bayon, CEO

Sure, sure, and thanks for that. So, again, thanks, everyone for being here today in our 1Q results conference call. Thanks for the interest in Ecopetrol, thanks for your questions. As I've said before, they help us a lot in terms of understanding what are the areas of interest and what are the things that we need to put a lot of focus on. So, we really appreciate that. Please stay safe, take care of yourselves and hopefully, we'll see you soon in one of these next conference calls. So, stay safe and have a great day.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.