Earnings Call Transcript - ECVT Q4 2022

Operator, Operator

Good morning. My name is Shelby, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to Ecovyst's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please note today's call is being recorded and should last about 1 hour. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode to minimize background noise. After the speakers finish their remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gene Shiels, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Gene Shiels, Director of Investor Relations

Thank you, Shelby. Good morning, and welcome to Ecovyst's Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2022 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning are Kurt Bitting, Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Feehan, Ecovyst's Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks this morning, we look forward to taking your questions. Please note that some of the information shared today is forward-looking information, including information about the company's financial and operating performance, strategies or anticipated end-use demand trends and our 2023 financial outlook. This information is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially. Any forward-looking information we share today speaks only as of this date. These risks are discussed in the company's filings with the SEC. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures mentioned on today's call with their corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and in presentation materials posted in the Investors section of our website at ecovyst.com. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Kurt Bitting. Kurt?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Thank you, Gene, and good morning. First, I want to take the opportunity to thank all of my colleagues at Ecovyst for their dedication and hard work. Their efforts to provide great products and services to our valued customers enabled the strong financial results that we delivered in Q4 and for full-year 2022. During the fourth quarter, the favorable demand fundamentals we experienced throughout the first nine months of 2022 continued, providing for a strong finish to the year despite the disruption associated with Winter Storm Elliott late in the fourth quarter. During the fourth quarter, high refinery utilization in the U.S. continued to translate into strong demand for our regeneration services. In addition, underlying demand for virgin sulfuric acid also remained firm. Although fourth quarter sales were below the extremely high level of sales we experienced in the fourth quarter of 2021, this was due in part to the impact of customer downtime as well as our downtime and related production constraints arising from Winter Storm Elliott, which limited our ability to fully satisfy the attractive spot demand in the quarter. In our Catalyst Technologies business, during the fourth quarter, we saw increased demand for renewable fuel and hydrocracking catalysts, while sales of polyethylene catalysts were lower than the year-ago quarter, in part due to the timing of shipments at year-end. As a result, total sales for the fourth quarter of 2022 were up 8% compared to Q4 2021 and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $69 million was up 9% versus the year-ago quarter. In light of these strong fourth quarter results, we delivered full-year 2022 adjusted EBITDA of $277 million, which was up 22% compared to 2021 and above our previously raised guidance range. Our favorable financial results provided for meaningful cash generation in the quarter, enabling increased shareholder value associated with the $63 million repurchase of stock in conjunction with another successful secondary offering. Through the offering, we repurchased 8 million of the shares offered by a private equity sponsor helping to reduce their ownership of Ecovyst to less than 10%. On a full-year basis, strong cash generation facilitated the reduction of our net debt leverage ratio to 2.8x while at the same time, we increased shareholder value with $137 million worth of share repurchases. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet and with $171 million of liquidity positioning us well to capture growth opportunities in 2023. In terms of non-financial achievements, in 2022, we continued to position Ecovyst for future growth as a key supplier, enabling greener and more sustainable technologies. While our focus on sustainability applies to products, services and technology development, process improvement is of equal importance as we focus on our near-term and longer-term sustainability objectives. As evidence of our ongoing commitment to sustainability and in the spirit of continual improvement, we recently achieved a gold sustainability rating from EcoVadis, which places Ecovyst in the 97th percentile of all companies rated in our peer group. We are pleased to receive this distinction, which we believe validates our ongoing efforts to promote more sustainable practices. We expect 2023 to be another year of growth for Ecovyst as we build upon our successes in 2022. As noted, we believe the demand fundamentals that contributed to our 2022 results will continue this year, providing for incremental growth opportunities. In particular, with our leading supply share positions, we believe we have attractive organic growth opportunities associated with increasing demand for low carbon and more sustainable technologies. As a leading provider of sulfuric acid regeneration services for the refining industry and as a leading supplier of virgin sulfuric acid to a broad range of industrial applications, Ecoservices is positioned for growth in 2023. Our regeneration services are essential to our customers' production of alkylate, a high-value gasoline blending component. We expect that favorable domestic demand for refined products in 2023 in concert with increasing needs for higher octane, cleaner burning premium fuels and strong export demand will continue to support alkylate production and drive demand for our regeneration services this year. In addition, we expect market demand for virgin sulfuric acid to increase in 2023 with positive demand fundamentals for many industrial end users utilizing virgin sulfuric acid as a primary raw material. This year, we expect sulfuric acid demand in the mining sector to be strong. In light of the global supply shortage for copper and with the increasing need for copper to support electrification and green infrastructure objectives, including electric vehicle production, charging network expansion, and the tie-in of wind and solar technologies, mining activity for copper is expected to increase, driving incremental demand for sulfuric acid required for leaching operations. In addition, mining activity for borates is expected to be stable, supported by demand in a highly diversified range of end-use applications. Given our supply sources in the Gulf Coast and West Coast, we are well suited to serve our mining customers in the Southwest. In terms of other end users driving demand for sulfuric acid, Ecoservices is the largest producer of Oleum, a supersaturated sulfuric acid used in the production of nylon and engineered plastics for construction materials and coatings and packaging applications and in automotive applications for vehicle lightweighting. We also provide electrolyte grades used in petrochemical and chemical processes, semiconductor production, lead-acid batteries and water-treatment applications, all of which are expected to drive incremental demand for virgin sulfuric acid in 2023. For our Catalyst Activation Business, we expect another strong year for Chem32, a provider of off-site catalyst activation services. As a reminder, Chem32 is a global provider of ex-situ activation services, which is preferred over on-site activation because it reduces the customers' resource requirements and downtime. We expect Chem32 to benefit this year from growth in renewable fuel production capacity and change outs as well as from sales and change out of hydroprocessing catalysts. And following a very good year in 2022 for our treatment services business, we anticipate another strong year in 2023. As the only North American sulfur acid producer with the permits in place to treat hazardous waste streams regulated by RCRA, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, we are uniquely positioned for additional opportunities to serve the refining and petrochemical industries in the Gulf Coast. Our treatment services are a compelling alternative to long-haul trucking and deep well disposal for our customers, and Ecoservices gains from the beneficial use of the energy value in the waste streams. Turning to Catalyst Technologies. We expect 2023 to be an inflection point for our Catalyst business. We expect broad-based growth across many of our Catalyst Technologies. For polyethylene and niche custom catalysts, we continue to expect demand growth in 2023. Over the past few years, our custom polyethylene catalyst solutions which are designed to meet specific customer criteria have enjoyed growth rates roughly twice that of underlying polyethylene demand. We have had strong share participation in newer, more cost-efficient capacity additions over the past few years, which we believe will maintain higher utilization rates relative to older capacity that is higher on the cost curve. For 2023, we expect continued demand growth in food and packaging applications with stronger overall demand in the back half of the year as export demand into China and Europe improves. For hydrocracking catalysts, we expect strong sales growth in 2023. The hydrocracking catalyst produced by our joint venture, Zeolyst give refiners the ability to hit desired yield targets to maximize unit profitability. As we have discussed previously, we believe sales of hydrocracking catalysts in 2022 were impacted by turnaround delays as our refining customers sought to maintain lofty operating rates in the face of extremely high refining margins. As a result of these turnaround deferrals, we believe some catalyst sales were pushed into this year. In addition, we expect refinery utilization in the U.S. will remain elevated in 2023, supported by low product inventories and robust export demand to Latin America and Europe where refined product production has been adversely impacted by the Russian-Ukraine conflict. In 2022, our sales of emission control catalysts were limited by a significant backlog in heavy-duty diesel vehicle deliveries related to the chip shortage as well as supply chain and logistics limitations. This year, we expect that the improvement in chip supply and increasing production and delivery against the significant backlog will contribute to higher sales of emission control catalysts. And lastly, we believe sales into renewable fuels will be a positive contributor to Catalyst Technologies this year. We believe the ongoing expansion in renewable fuel capacity and production that I referred to as being positive for our Chem32 business this year will also translate into stronger sales in the ZI joint venture. Renewable fuel production, specifically renewable diesel production and the nascent production of sustainable aviation fuel is being driven by the need to decarbonize heavy-duty transportation and aviation. As of today, there are very limited electrification alternatives in those areas. In addition, regulatory mandates such as the Renewable Energy Directive in Europe and the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. will continue to contribute to capacity and production growth for renewable fuels. As an example, the Inflation Reduction Act has increased incentives for production of SAF or sustainable aviation fuel, which we believe will become a meaningful component of renewable fuel production in the 2025 to 2026 time frame as airlines pursue their carbon reduction goals. Having just walked through a number of end users expected to grow in 2023, you may have noticed a common thread. All are associated with the need for more sustainable technologies. We believe Ecovyst remains uniquely positioned to help meet the world's increasing need for green infrastructure and sustainable technologies. As a key supplier of products and services that are essential to the advancement of low-carbon technologies, a majority of our sales address customer and consumer needs for more sustainable products and services. Broad sustainability objectives, such as cleaner air, reduced vehicle emissions, increased electrification and the circular plastics economy, all provide opportunities for Ecovyst to leverage its technical expertise and product portfolio. In addition, they provide opportunities for more meaningful organic growth this year and in the future. With this in mind, our primary focus for R&D investment is in product innovation linked to sustainability. However, our commitment to sustainability extends beyond our product and service offering. In terms of the environment, we have committed to meaningful reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and reductions in hazardous waste, with clear targets set for 2025 and 2030. We are also committed to the safety of our employees and being responsible stewards in the communities in which we operate. At Ecovyst, we reinforce a culture of safety and continuous improvement through our HS&E Perfect Days initiative and through the principles of the American Chemistry Council's Responsible Care program. Lastly, we are extremely proud that our dedication to driving more sustainable business practices throughout our company was validated by the gold status rating that we received from EcoVadis in 2023, which places Ecovyst in the 97th percentile of all companies rated in our peer group. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Mike Feehan for a more detailed discussion of our fourth quarter and full-year financial results.

Mike Feehan, CFO

Thank you, Kurt. Continued favorability of market fundamentals during the fourth quarter provided the backdrop for another solid quarterly performance for Ecovyst. Total sales for the fourth quarter, including our 50% interest in the Zeolyst joint venture were $223 million, up $16 million or 8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. The increase in sales was driven by continued pricing benefits in our Ecoservices business associated with the contractual price increases arising from higher labor, energy, and freight costs. In contrast, prior quarters, the pass-through of sulfur cost had a minimal impact on sales in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $69 million, up 9% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, with the pricing benefit, partially offset by higher variable costs, largely associated with inflation, lower sales volume in silicon catalyst and higher turnaround costs in Ecoservices. Total sales for the full-year, including the Zeolyst joint venture were $953 million, up 28% compared to 2021, with the increase reflecting higher pricing, including the pass-through of higher sulfur costs and higher sales volume in both Ecoservices and Catalyst Technologies. Of the increase in sales, $85 million is associated directly with the pass-through of higher sulfur costs within the Ecoservices business, which negatively impacted margins by 280 basis points. The strong pricing and volume growth resulted in adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly $50 million or 22%. In addition, we generated $146 million of adjusted free cash flow during the year, leading to a cash conversion ratio of just under 80%. And after deploying $137 million of capital for share repurchases, we reduced our net leverage ratio by 0.5 turn to 2.8x. Moving to the next slide, we'll take a deeper look into the drivers of our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA growth. The increase in fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was primarily driven by $30 million of pricing benefits. These price increases were largely associated with index pass-through of higher labor, energy and freight costs in Ecoservices as well as price increases enacted through the year in Catalyst Technologies. These price increases more than offset the higher variable costs, driving another quarter of positive price-to-cost ratio. In addition, the quarterly results were impacted by lower bulk virgin sulfuric acid sales driven by lower spot sales, planned customer turnarounds and the impact of Winter Storm Elliott as well as an unfavorable mix impact in Silica Catalysts. Turning to Slide 12. Fourth quarter 2022 sales for Ecoservices were $160 million, up 12.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. The sales increase was principally driven by higher pricing in both regeneration services and virgin sulfuric acid, including the contractual pass-through of higher labor, energy and freight costs. Demand for regeneration services continued with higher sales volume compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, while market demand for virgin sulfuric acid remained strong in the fourth quarter, sales volume was down compared to the exceptionally strong sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2021, due in part to the adverse impact of planned customer turnarounds, disruption associated with Winter Storm Elliott and lower spot sales. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA for Ecoservices was $54 million, up 4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, with the sales benefit being partially offset by higher turnaround costs, of approximately $3 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 and the impact of Winter Storm Elliott. While the storm had a modest impact on fourth quarter results, it will have a more material impact on first quarter results due to the timing of repair costs and lost customer sales. We estimate the storm will have an impact on the first quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7 million to $8 million. The fourth quarter 2022 adjusted EBITDA margin for Ecoservices was 34%, down compared to the fourth quarter last year, driven by the higher turnaround costs, lower virgin sulfuric acid volume and the storm impact resulting in higher maintenance costs. Turning to the results for Catalyst Technologies on the next slide. Total sales, including the Zeolyst joint venture of $63 million was down approximately 2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Sales for the Zeolyst joint venture were up 10% in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by higher sales into renewable fuel applications and modestly higher sales of hydrocracking catalysts. Silica Catalyst sales for the fourth quarter were $23 million, down approximately $5 million compared to the year-ago quarter, primarily due to unfavorable mix and some order timing of polyethylene catalyst. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA for Catalyst Technologies was $20 million, down $3 million compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. The decline was primarily driven by the lower polyethylene sales and higher costs from continued inflationary pressures, including higher energy and transportation costs. With regard to inflationary pressures, over the course of 2022, we saw notable inflation in raw materials as well as in energy and transportation costs. While we proactively implemented price increases, the extreme spikes in energy and raw material costs were not fully reflected in our short-term pricing actions. In addition, over the course of 2022, we incurred elevated ocean and freight costs associated with logistical delays, which we believe are largely nonrecurring. Turning to the next slide, a few comments on leverage and liquidity. Throughout 2022, our strong cash generation capability continued to provide for significant capital allocation flexibility with free cash flow of $146 million and a cash conversion ratio of nearly 80%, we were able to comfortably fund our capital expenditure programs and use $137 million of cash to increase shareholder value through our share repurchases while reducing our net leverage ratio from 3.3x at the end of last year to 2.8x at the end of this year. At year-end, we had total liquidity of $171 million, comprised of cash of $111 million and availability under our ABL facility of $60 million. We believe our strong liquidity position and strong cash generation allow us continued flexibility in our capital allocation strategy. Turning to Slide 15. In conjunction with the secondary offering in November, we repurchased 8 million shares of our common stock sold for $63 million, including repurchase activity in the second and third quarters of last year through open market repurchases and a secondary offering in August. For the full-year, we repurchased 16.5 million shares for $137 million. Our balance sheet remains strong with only one tranche of debt maturing in 2028. As such, we believe we can continue to invest in operational improvements and organic growth initiatives while retaining the flexibility to pursue attractive and accretive acquisition opportunities that can complement our existing business and our organic growth objectives. Turning to our full-year 2023 outlook on the next slide. Overall, we expect demand trends to remain positive in 2023, and we expect this to translate into top-line growth for both Ecoservices and Catalyst Technologies. We expect 2023 sales to be between $760 million and $790 million. This reflects the estimated pass-through impact of lower sulfur costs of approximately $95 million. Adjusting for the sulfur pass-through impact, sales growth, including the Zeolyst joint venture sales, would be 7%, assuming the midpoint of the guidance. In Ecoservices, adjusting for the estimated $95 million of pass-through sulfur cost impact, we expect mid-single-digit growth in sales despite the lower volume resulting from Winter Storm Elliott. For Catalyst Technologies, we expect sales, including our proportionate share of the Zeolyst joint venture sales to reflect low double-digit growth in 2023. For Silica Catalysts, we expect sales of polyethylene catalysts to be up on a mid- to high-teens percentage basis in 2023, offset by lower sales of niche custom catalysts compared to a very strong 2022. For the Zeolyst joint venture, we expect sales to be up 10% to 15%, driven by strong growth in hydrocracking and emission control catalysts, up on a high teens percentage basis, and higher sales of renewable fuel catalysts up on a mid-teens percentage basis. For 2023, we are guiding adjusted EBITDA of $285 million to $300 million, which would imply a growth of approximately 6% at the midpoint compared to 2022. However, this guidance incorporates our expectation that Winter Storm Elliott will have an adverse impact on first quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7 million to $8 million. Excluding the impact of Winter Storm Elliott, we would, therefore, have expected 2023 adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint of the guidance range to be higher by over 200 basis points. Given the impact of Winter Storm Elliott, Ecoservices adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be in the low single digits. If you exclude the storm impact, we would have expected mid-single-digit growth. And then with the strong sales growth, we expect Catalyst Technologies adjusted EBITDA to grow between 10% and 15%. Given our 2023 expectations for adjusted EBITDA, we expect adjusted free cash flow to be in the range of $115 million to $130 million. While the increase in EBITDA will result in the generation of additional cash flow, we expect higher working capital usage compared to 2022, along with slightly higher capital spending, interest and taxes. Our higher capital expenditures range of $60 million to $70 million in 2023 compared to 2022 reflects higher growth capital, primarily in our catalyst business. And for interest expense, we are projecting a range of $40 million to $50 million, reflecting higher rates in 2023. Having provided an outlook for the full-year of 2023, which reflect our positive growth expectations for both Ecoservices and Catalyst Technologies, I want to provide some specific guidance for the first quarter. We expect first quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA will be down approximately 30% compared to the first quarter of 2022. In Ecoservices, as previously noted, we expect that Winter Storm Elliott will have a negative impact on first quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7 million to $8 million. In addition, we expect a further impact related to an extended turnaround at one of our sites during the first quarter. Prior to the impact of the storm and the extended turnaround, we anticipated Ecoservices adjusted EBITDA to be relatively in line with prior-year first quarter as our continued growth is expected to be reduced by higher planned turnaround costs at one of our larger units and the impact associated with planned customer turnarounds during the first quarter. Therefore, we anticipate Ecoservices adjusted EBITDA will be approximately 20% lower compared to the first quarter of 2022. For Catalyst Technologies, while we are expecting full-year earnings growth of 10% to 15%, including stronger sales of hydrocracking catalysts, we expect order timing to be a factor in the first quarter. For hydrocracking catalysts, we serve some of the largest refineries and individual orders are significant in dollar terms. Some orders can be larger than $10 million. For the first quarter, we expect lower sales of hydrocracking and specialty catalysts driven by some large orders that are being shipped in the first quarter, but will likely be recognized in the second quarter. The order timing will not impact full-year growth expectations. As a result, we expect adjusted EBITDA in Catalyst Technologies to be off approximately 50% compared to the first quarter of 2022. This will result in Ecovyst adjusted EBITDA to be up approximately 30% compared to the prior year first quarter. While our first quarter earnings are anticipated to be light, driven by sales timing in catalyst and the impact from Winter Storm Elliott, we expect solid overall growth for the full year in 2023. I'll now hand the call back to Kurt for some closing remarks.

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Thank you, Mike. We are extremely proud of the results we delivered in 2022. Given the economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures that prevailed throughout the year, our businesses demonstrated outstanding resilience. We finished the year with strong financial results despite the adverse impact of Winter Storm Elliott late in the fourth quarter. Our financial performance paved the way for cash generation and net leverage reduction allowing us to enhance shareholder value through significant share repurchase activity. We also achieved a number of non-financial milestones as we continue to position Ecovyst for growth in 2023 and beyond. I want to again personally thank all of our employees for their dedication and their contributions that made the successes of 2022 possible. We entered 2023 with solid underlying business momentum. Despite a degree of economic uncertainty, we maintained solid growth expectations for the year. We expect Ecoservices to continue on its long-term growth trajectory this year. While our first quarter results will reflect the impact of Winter Storm Elliott and a significant planned turnaround, we project growth in sales and adjusted EBITDA for Ecoservices this year. For Catalyst Technologies, we expect higher sales for hydrocracking, renewable fuel, emission control and polyethylene catalysts this year. We believe these higher sales coupled with lower inflationary pressures and incremental pricing actions will translate into solid year-over-year growth. As Mike referenced, we expect 2023 to be another strong year for cash generation, and this will continue to enable our flexible capital allocation strategy, which is intended to drive growth and increase shareholder returns. In closing, we are highly confident in our ability to deliver growth again in 2023, and we look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year. With that, we will ask the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

We will take our first question from John McNulty with BMO.

John McNulty, Analyst

Maybe the first one just on the winter storm impact that you're calling out for the first quarter, the $7 million to $8 million or so. Can you help us to understand how much of that's tied to the repair and maintenance cost versus the volume loss? And then on the volume loss portion, is that something you can make back as we kind of progress through the year? Or is it, hey, look, you either have it and you can produce it and deliver it, or you can't and they go somewhere else? Like I guess, how should we be thinking about that?

Michael Feehan, CFO

Hey, John, thanks for your question. This is Mike. I would estimate that about half of the impact is due to lost sales, while the other half is related to repair maintenance. We have accounted for this in our guidance for the year. We still believe that Ecoservices will perform well with overall results in the mid-single digits, excluding that impact, but it is included in our guidance for the year.

John McNulty, Analyst

Got it. Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up. So early on in your prepared remarks, you kind of walked through all the positives. I mean it sounds like everything kind of has a bunch of positives going forward from end market demand, apparently being kind of the big driver of it. I get the winter storm impact, obviously, is a little bit of a setback. But I guess I'm a little bit surprised with all the growth drivers, even some of the pent-up demand for, say, some of the Catalyst business that you're only guiding to 6% EBITDA growth at kind of the midpoint of the range. So are there other bad guys that we should be thinking about in terms of either costs or what have you? I mean it sounds like some are actually coming down. So I guess, I just can't quite reconcile the kind of EBITDA growth. So maybe can you help us to think about maybe what other bad guys might be out there that we should be considering?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Yes, I appreciate the question. We're very confident in the growth for our major segments. Catalyst Technologies, polyethylene, renewables, and hydrocracking are all showing low double-digit growth. For Ecoservices, the storm impact in the first quarter was significant. However, regeneration services are experiencing strong demand due to favorable refining economics and high refining utilization, which we expect to continue throughout the year. There’s also solid underlying demand growth for virgin sulfuric acid. The setback for virgin acid in the first quarter was primarily due to the storm, which affected volume and resulted in maintenance costs.

Aleksey Yefremov, Analyst

I want to ask you about Catalyst Technologies. The high watermark for EBITDA was $108 million in 2019, and every subsequent year was below that level. In '22, you did $78 million. How do you view that 108 level? Was this unsustainable? Or was it something that could be target that you could achieve and exceed in the long run? And when could that be, if that's the case?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Yes, hi Aleksey. Thanks for your question. Looking back to 2019, it was a peak year for hydrocracking catalyst and our specialized custom catalysts also had a strong performance. For 2023, the growth in Catalyst Technologies is being driven by major business segments. Polyethylene, renewables, hydrocracking, and emission controls are all experiencing solid growth in their trends. In 2022, we faced some challenges, including high refinery margins and high utilization rates that delayed turnarounds. Moving forward with hydrocracking, conditions might be smoother than before due to previous low utilization rates during the pandemic, giving way to a period of high utilization now. It's clear that 2022 was affected by these high rates, along with a midyear spike in energy costs and some one-time logistics issues that were nonrecurring. We believe most of the challenges from 2022 are behind us, and we're optimistic about the segment's health in 2023.

Aleksey Yefremov, Analyst

And maybe as a follow-up, how would you look at 2023 EBITDA in this segment? Is this somewhat below normalized level, above or at normalized kind of can you frame it relative to the cycle of margin normalization and maybe the catalyst reload cycle at your various customers?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Yes, I'll start by discussing the catalyst cycle reload. We are witnessing strong growth, with low double-digit growth expected in all major segments. I wouldn't necessarily label it a peak year for hydrocracking since we anticipate another year of high refining utilization and strong refining margins. The catalyst hydrocracking sales that were pushed from 2022 to 2023 might also shift again in 2023 and 2024. This cycle is somewhat more uncertain than in the past due to the pandemic and elevated utilization rates. However, we continue to observe very robust growth across many regions. Additionally, I didn't mention renewable fuels, which are growing at approximately 20% annually, contributing to significant sales growth for us.

P.J. Juvekar, Analyst

Hi, good morning. This is Patrick Cunningham on for PJ. You referenced your geographic footprint in virgin relative to the heavy mining industry. And I know lithium is a relatively small part of your business and just a small part of lithium supplies in the U.S. in general. Is there enough potential demand to justify adding new capacity or expanding existing capacity, maybe in Southeastern U.S.? I think I'm just trying to understand the volume potential, what might be the differences, say, relative to copper.

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Thank you for the question, Patrick. It's a really good one. As you've mentioned, we have our plants strategically located in Northern California, Southern California, and the Gulf Coast, which positions us well within the U.S. mining sector. Mining is essential for the materials needed in electrification and green infrastructure. Regarding copper, traditional extraction methods use about 3 to 5 tons of sulfuric acid for every ton of copper produced, while lithium requires significantly more, around 20 tons. With the expected increase in lithium production needed to support electrification and green initiatives, the demand for sulfuric acid will rise substantially, outpacing that of copper or borates. Consequently, we anticipate continued growth in demand for sulfuric acid in the future.

P.J. Juvekar, Analyst

Great. Thanks. And then just on the higher CapEx number, which parts of the catalyst business is that being directed? And would I be correct in assuming that you might have a bias towards the catalyst business in terms of potential bolt-ons? Thanks.

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Yes. That's another good question. I'll take the first part there. Our growth capital is geared towards the catalyst business. There are some good opportunities in the polyethylene catalyst market as well as in our Zeolyst joint venture that we're continuing to look at. There is something that we're continuing to believe that there's strong growth where we will continue to invest organically in the Catalyst business. Yes. I think it looks in terms of inorganic growth, we look at Ecovyst, we like all the segments that we serve, right? I mean we deliver unique and customized products and services, really the blue chip refining, petchem, mining and catalysts and major industrial consumers, and we really like these segments. So any opportunity to expand our offerings in these areas or adjacent to the areas is going to be interesting to us. So we're really confident that we can drive value in an acquisition either by leveraging our operational expertise, technical know-how or customer relationships in either of the businesses, not just Catalyst Technologies.

David Begleiter, Analyst

Thank you. Kurt, you mentioned capital allocation this year. Regarding the use of free cash for debt repayment, can you discuss how much we should anticipate? Additionally, what are the other priorities for this year besides that reduction?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Thank you for the question. In 2022, we repurchased approximately $137 million worth of stock, which has increased value for our shareholders. We are proud of this achievement and managed to maintain our net leverage ratio at 2.8x. We firmly believe in the positive growth trends in our business. As we generate cash, we plan to continue investing in our operations and pursue both organic and inorganic growth opportunities. Additionally, we have board authorization for share repurchases, which we will use to provide further value to our shareholders.

David Begleiter, Analyst

Understood. And just on sulfuric acid, apologies if I missed this. Is there potential to add capacity organically or even potentially buy some more capacity given the robust end market growth you've talked about?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Yes. We constantly have multiple projects underway aimed at improving our existing assets. We have previously mentioned that we can enhance our logistics assets. We also have the capability to alleviate constraints on our current plants, allowing us to increase sulfur capacity and produce more sulfuric acid. We have a strong commitment to the sulfuric acid industry, having been part of it for 120 years, and we are always seeking opportunities to expand our production capacity where feasible.

Hamed Khorsand, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Could you just elaborate on given the reduced production in Q1, are you looking to ramp up production beyond nameplate capacity to catch up with sales? And how are you going about landing new customers when you have this kind of headwind in Q1 as far as production is concerned?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Yes, thank you for the question. We serve our customers through a network of facilities. During turnarounds and weather-related outages, we continue to provide supply using our existing network capacity. Utilization across our network and the sulfuric acid market overall is very high, leading to longer-term contracts in this business. Our customer relationships typically range from one to seven years for virgin acid. We consider these customers to be with us for the long haul, as we have made commitments over that timeframe to supply them from whatever plant is necessary. If we have a unit down, we can source from another unit at that site or from additional plants in our network.

Hamed Khorsand, Analyst

And my other question was on refinery utilization rates have been elevated for quite some time. Does this structurally change your business on a long-term basis? Or do you feel like this is still a short-term event?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

I believe that the refining utilization rates projected by the EIA are expected to remain high in the medium term. We have long-term agreements with our refining customers, and they are optimistic about their refining operations. Our perspective on utilization aligns with theirs and the EIA's projections for high utilization rates. It's also important to note that utilization isn't the only factor; the value of alkylate remains very high, which is significant for us. Refineries, regardless of their utilization rates, consistently strive to maximize their alkylate production since it is one of the highest margin products they offer, essential for gasoline exports and producing premium gasoline.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst

This is Dan Rizzo for Laurence. I just have a follow-up on, I think, it was David's question. You mentioned doing debottlenecking into sulfuric acid. I was just wondering if it's possible or how much it would cost for brownfield or greenfield expansion?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

That's a challenging question regarding expansions. We consider a brownfield expansion as we continually work on optimizing our equipment in our plants. For example, a sulfuric acid plant consists of many modular components, and as these components age and reach the end of their lifespan, we often replace them with new equipment that can increase the plant's production capacity. Therefore, it's difficult to estimate the cost of a brownfield expansion because we view it as a process of optimizing specific units within the sulfur plant. In contrast, developing greenfield plants is quite costly, and if we were to undertake such a multiyear project for permitting and construction, we would tie it to specific customer demand or market segments, as we have done previously with other capacity expansions or major investments.

Daniel Rizzo, Analyst

All right. That's very helpful. And then just one other question. Broadly speaking, if a recession were to occur in the U.S. in the second half of this year into 2024, could you still achieve the low end of your EBITDA outlook?

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Yes, Mike and I have been involved with the legacy businesses since 2006. We've experienced a couple of economic downturns. If you examine the segment trends, our refinery and regeneration businesses are being driven by high demand for alkylate, which we anticipate will remain robust. Our virgin acid product line is also fueled by the growth in green technologies and low-carbon initiatives, as well as mining. We believe that the underlying commodities in these sectors will remain strong. Mining and green technology are transitional, and even if a downturn occurs, we think their strength will persist due to significant investments from both private and public sectors. Similarly, for Catalyst Technologies, our high-density polyethylene catalyst sales support the light weighting of vehicles, packaging, and film, along with other areas like renewable fuels and hydrocracking, benefiting from strong distillate demand. Therefore, we are confident that this business will remain resilient in an economic downturn, as it has during the downturns of 2008 and 2020.

David Silver, Analyst

Hi. Thanks very much. I had a couple of questions. I just wanted to start clarification, I think, on the tax rates. So just as a perspective, but I think in 2022, we started out thinking the tax accrual rate was going to be closer to 30% and it never really reached that level on an adjusted basis by my records that whole year, and then it was much, much lower in the fourth quarter. Could you maybe comment on that? And then in particular, what kind of range is reasonable for using for our 2023 forecast? Thank you.

Michael Feehan, CFO

Yes, David, it's Mike. Thank you for the question. I think in the past, we talked about the tax rate being in the mid to high 20s. So probably not quite approaching the 30. I mean we are a domestic business, where a significant amount of our production does come out of the U.S., which has a statutory rate of 25% plus state taxes and such. However, we do have opportunities to lower our taxes through some of our structures that we have and how we're selling our products, which puts us probably in the mid-20s on a run rate basis. I think our adjusted tax rate was around 23% or 24% this past quarter. So we probably expect it to be somewhere in the mid-20s on a go-forward basis.

David Silver, Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. My next question would be about the catalyst for renewable fuels. And I'm looking at the very bottom slice of Slide 7. But you talked about the opportunities in sustainable aviation fuel, and I think you used the word nascent, but the part of your renewable fuels business that goes into, I don't know, the spend cooking oil or the mixed feedstocks. As I recall, I mean, that's a very nice profit-making opportunity for you just due to the demands on the catalyst and maybe the more frequent replacement cycle or a shorter replacement cycle. I'm just curious, this is not a new business, but why is production capacity? I guess you're talking about the demand for your product rising like 50% in the next year. And what does Ecovyst have to do to be fully prepared to kind of exploit that unusual growth opportunity? Thank you.

Kurt Bitting, CEO

Thank you for the question. The new production units in renewable fuels are designed to serve two main segments. The first is renewable diesel, which serves as a direct one-for-one replacement for regular ultra-low sulfur road diesel. Additionally, many of these new units are also being developed to produce sustainable aviation fuel. Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, we anticipate an increase in the adoption of sustainable aviation fuel, with airlines blending up to 50% of it into their fuel mixtures to help achieve their low-carbon goals. Therefore, while renewable diesel will continue to gain market share in the diesel sector, a larger share is expected to come from aviation, where it can be blended at more substantial rates. We foresee growth, and as Mike mentioned, the renewables sector is projected to grow in the low double digits this year. Our Zeolyst products, which we sell into this market, are valued for their purity and performance, and we partner with leading technology companies in these areas to capture new opportunities. We are leveraging our Zeolyst expertise to take advantage of the growth in this segment moving forward.

Operator, Operator

We have no further questions in the queue at this time. This does conclude the Ecovyst fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call and webcast. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.