Earnings Call Transcript
Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT)
Earnings Call Transcript - ECVT Q2 2023
Operator, Operator
Good morning. My name is Travis, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to the Ecovyst Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please note today’s call is being recorded and should run approximately one hour. I would now like to hand the conference over to Gene Shiels, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Gene Shiels, Director of Investor Relations
Thank you, Operator. Good morning, and welcome to the Ecovyst Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. With me on the call this morning are Kurt Bitting, Ecovyst Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Feehan, Ecovyst Chief Financial Officer. As is our usual practice, following our prepared remarks, we’ll take your questions. Please note that some of the information shared today is forward-looking information including information about the company’s financial and operating performance, strategies, our anticipated end-use demand trends and our 2023 financial outlook. This information is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company’s plans to vary materially. Any forward-looking information shared today speaks only as of this date. These risks are discussed in the company’s filings with the SEC. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures mentioned in today’s call with their corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and in the presentation materials posted in the Investors section of our website at ecovyst.com. Now I’d like to turn the call over to Kurt Bitting. Kurt?
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Thank you, Gene, and good morning. We are pleased with our financial results for the second quarter of 2023, with adjusted EBITDA up 9% when compared to the second quarter of 2022. There were a number of positive factors contributing to our second quarter results. High refinery utilization continued to drive activity for our regeneration services business, and we benefited from higher net pricing for regeneration services in the quarter. As we expect refinery utilization to remain at high levels for the balance of the year, we continue to have a positive outlook for our regeneration services business. During the second quarter, we also benefited from higher pricing in our Catalyst Technologies business. While sales of silica catalysts were lower compared to the year-ago quarter due to the lack of event-driven niche custom catalyst sales in the quarter and lower sales of polyethylene catalysts associated with softer global polyethylene demand, the pricing momentum in the Silica Catalyst business in conjunction with higher sales of renewable fuels, hydrocracking, and emission control catalysts from the Zeolyst Joint Venture translated into favorable year-over-year growth in sales and a 19% growth in adjusted EBITDA for our Catalyst Technologies segment. However, the quarter was not without its challenges. In the closing weeks of the second quarter, our Dominguez, California site suffered an unexpected and premature equipment failure, which resulted in an outage and production restrictions limiting our sales volume in the quarter. The plant then required another outage at the end of July to replace the equipment and make the lasting repair. This production constraint also resulted in higher costs in the quarter as we worked to minimize the overall impact of the production limitation. Second quarter sales, including our proportionate share of sales in the ZI joint venture were $229 million. While this was down from the $261 million in the second quarter of 2022, this was principally due to the associated pass-through of lower sulfur costs on the virgin sulfuric acid selling prices. Despite the lower virgin sulfuric acid sales volume, adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $79 million, up 9% compared to the second quarter of 2022, driven by increased pricing in both Ecoservices and Catalyst Technologies, and higher sales of renewable fuels, hydrocracking, and emission control catalysts. These factors served to offset the impact of the unforeseen production constraint, lower silica catalyst sales, and higher variable and fixed costs. Fortunately, the aforementioned production restriction at our Dominguez site was not resolved until the end of July due to the required repair of a key component. For the third quarter, we expect the restriction to impact virgin sulfuric acid sales, and we also anticipate increased repair and maintenance costs related to the restriction and other sites in our production network. In addition, late in the second quarter, we began to see deteriorating demand fundamentals in select end users that are more directly tied to macroeconomic activity, including lower demand expectations and destocking from specific customers associated with softening consumer demand. As a result, for the second half of the year, we are revising our expectations for demand in two primary end-use markets. For virgin sulfuric acid, our Oleum and high-purity sulfuric acid grades are used in nylon production for applications such as vehicle light weighting, construction materials, coatings, and packaging. We expect that destocking and weaker global demand for these end uses will have an impact on nylon production, and therefore, our virgin sulfuric acid sales for the second half of this year. Additionally, while we believe polyethylene demand will remain positive over the long term, we now expect that down cycle conditions in the second half of this year will continue to put pressure on our sales of polyethylene catalysts. As a result of the production constraint in Ecoservices and higher related costs as well as the softer demand outlook, we are revising our full year 2023 guidance for adjusted EBITDA to a range of $260 million to $275 million. We still expect cash generation to be positive over the balance of the year, and leverage reduction remains a key priority for Ecovyst. Even with $73 million worth of share repurchases in the first half of the year, we expect to end the year with a net debt leverage ratio below 3 times, roughly in line with year-end 2022. Turning to Slide 6 for an update on our demand outlook. Looking at the balance of 2023, we still see refinery utilization remaining at high levels, supported by favorable demand for refined products, low inventory levels, and historically attractive refining margins. From a longer-term perspective, we still see growth in alkylate demand with plans for alkylation capacity expansion underway with some customers. Based upon our expectations for growth in alkylate demand, and with a continuation of favorable pricing for our regeneration services, we expect our regeneration services business will continue to be a solid contributor to overall growth for Ecoservices. Likewise, we have seen continued growth in our waste treatment business as a preferred alternative to other disposal methods such as deep well injection. With favorable demand from our Gulf Coast petrochemical and refining customers, we expect the business to continue to grow as we invest in the expansion of infrastructure to handle higher volumes. For our Virgin Sulfuric Acid business, we expect the resolution of the production issues at our Dominguez site to allow us to return to normalized production levels. Specifically, with regard to the revised market outlook for nylon, as we have discussed previously, our sales into the nylon production tend to be more correlated to global macroeconomic trends and therefore, more susceptible to contraction in consumer demand and destocking. Historically, we have seen customers who purchase our sulfuric acid for nylon production build their finished product inventory in the third quarter ahead of potential disruptions and fourth quarter planned maintenance activity. The current down cycle conditions for nylon have resulted in lower operating rates, particularly in the third quarter, in conjunction with customer destocking. From a demand perspective, we believe we are seeing the trough of the cycle conditions for nylon production. For the balance of our virgin sulfuric acid sales, we serve a diverse range of industrial applications, which we believe contributes to volumetric stability. Moreover, we still expect large multi-year expansion projects for our mining customers to continue supporting overall market demand for sulfuric acid. Rounding out Ecoservices, our catalyst activation business continues to see a high level of demand, supported by the ongoing growth in renewable fuel production, as well as the ongoing replacement cycle for conventional hydrocracking and hydro-processing catalysts. Turning to our Catalyst Technologies business. Earlier in the year, we anticipated softer market demand for polyethylene and therefore, sales of polyethylene catalysts in our Silica Catalyst business. However, slower-than-anticipated recovery in China, as well as lower consumer spending in North America and throughout Europe, has resulted in weaker global demand and lower operating rates. In light of historic annual rates of growth for global polyethylene demand of approximately 4%, we expect polyethylene demand will recover with newer, low-cost capacity additions, where we are well represented, benefiting from a return to historic operating levels. While we are seeing some pressure in the second half of the year, primarily in two select end users, we believe our portfolio remains well positioned for longer-term growth, particularly as we continue to serve the expanding need for sustainable and low-carbon technologies. Given our leverage to ongoing demand growth for sustainable products and processes, during the second quarter, we maintained our focus on the development of more sustainable products and solutions. During the quarter, we saw continued sales growth in renewable fuel catalyst and emission control catalysts that are helping to decarbonize and reduce emissions in heavy-duty transport. Today, over 80% of our innovation products are directly linked to sustainability. And as evidence of our ongoing commitment to a more sustainable future, we recently announced that Zeolyst International and Valoregen, a leading innovator of recycling technologies, have formalized a strategic development program that will focus specifically on advanced plastic recycling processes and technologies that we expect will play a key role in the advancement of the circular economy. In addition, we recently published our 2022 sustainability report. I encourage you to read the report as it highlights our commitment to sustainability and the progress we are making in delivering our near-term and long-term sustainability initiatives. At this time, I’ll turn the call over to Mike for a more detailed discussion of our second quarter financial results.
Michael Feehan, CFO
Thank you, Kurt. Starting on Slide 9. I’ll provide a review of our second quarter 2023 financial performance. Total sales, including our proportionate 50% share of sales from the Zeolyst Joint Venture, were $229 million compared to $261 million in the second quarter of last year. Of the period-over-period change, approximately $32 million is directly associated with a pass-through of lower sulfur costs compared to the second quarter of 2022. In addition, volume was lower during the quarter compared to the prior year. Sales volume for virgin sulfuric acid was lower, largely due to the production limitations during the quarter that Kurt referenced. Silica Catalyst sales decreased due to weaker global demand for polyethylene, as well as timing for event-driven niche custom catalyst used for the production of methyl methacrylate. The lower volume was offset by higher pricing in regeneration services and in silica catalysts. Within our Zeolyst Joint Venture, sales were up 25%, on higher sales of catalyst used in the production of renewable fuels, emission control, and hydrocracking catalysts compared to the second quarter of the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $79 million, up 9% compared to the second quarter of 2022, driven by higher pricing and regeneration services as well as favorable sales mix and higher pricing in Catalyst Technologies. This more than offset lower sales volume and higher unplanned repair and maintenance costs in Ecoservices during the quarter. The adjusted EBITDA margin for the second quarter of 2023 was nearly 35%, up close to 700 basis points compared to 28% in the second quarter of last year, illustrating the impact that changes in sulfur costs and the associated pass-through have on the margin calculation. Approximately 440 basis points of the increase is related to the pass-through of lower sulfur cost. The balance of the margin improvement was largely a function of higher pricing across both businesses and higher volume in the Zeolyst joint venture, partially offset by higher costs in the quarter associated with the production downtime in Ecoservices. The next slide illustrates the drivers of the change in adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year. During the second quarter of 2023, average sulfur prices were significantly lower than in the second quarter of the prior year. As we have previously discussed, in terms of the selling price for virgin sulfuric acid, the sulfur cost is a direct pass-through. As reflected on the bridge compared to the second quarter of last year, the impact of the pass-through of sulfur cost was approximately $32 million, which is neutral to the change in adjusted EBITDA. The increase in adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was therefore driven by price increases exclusive of the sulfur pass-through impact, covering higher variable costs, resulting in yet another quarter of positive price-to-cost ratio. The higher price to cost benefit during the quarter more than offset the impact of lower sales volume. Turning to the second quarter results for Ecoservices on Slide 11. Ecoservices' sales for the second quarter of 2023 were $158 million compared to $193 million in the second quarter of 2022. The change in Ecoservices' sales was primarily driven by the $32 million pass-through impact associated with lower average sulfur costs. The lower sales volume for virgin sulfuric acid was nearly offset by higher pricing in regeneration services. Ecoservices' adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2023 was $60 million, unchanged compared to the year-ago quarter as the benefit of higher pricing for regeneration services offset the lower sales volume for virgin sulfuric acid and higher costs largely associated with the production outages during the quarter. For the second quarter, the Ecoservices' adjusted EBITDA margin was 38%, up nearly 700 basis points compared to the year-ago quarter. The margin increase is primarily driven by the impact from the pass-through of lower sulfur costs as the higher pricing offset higher variable and fixed costs compared to the second quarter of 2022. Catalyst Technologies' second quarter 2023 total sales, including the Zeolyst Joint Venture, were $71 million, up 4% compared to the second quarter of last year. Silica Catalyst sales for the second quarter were $26 million compared to $32 million in the second quarter of 2022. The decrease in silica catalyst sales was driven by lower sales of polyethylene catalysts and the timing of event-driven niche custom catalyst orders used in the production of methyl methacrylate. Second quarter sales for the Zeolyst Joint Venture were $45 million, up $9 million or 25% compared to the second quarter of 2022 on the higher sales of renewable fuels, mission control, and hydrocracking catalysts. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA for Catalyst Technologies was $25 million, up 19% compared to the year-ago quarter. The increase was driven by the higher pricing, favorable mix, and higher sales volume within the Zeolyst Joint Venture, partially offset by the lower sales volume for Silica Catalyst. The adjusted EBITDA margin for Catalyst Technologies was 36%, a 450 basis points increase compared to the second quarter of last year on higher pricing and increased sales of higher margin products within the Zeolyst Joint Venture. Turning to our discussion on cash, leverage, and liquidity. As we have previously discussed, our business has historically demonstrated a strong cash generation capability. With a cash conversion ratio of nearly 80% in 2022, our adjusted free cash flow of $146 million provided for significant capital allocation flexibility including the repurchase of $137 million of stock in conjunction with secondary offerings. We expect cash conversion for this year to remain above 75%. While we were a net user of cash in the first quarter of the year, we generated significant operational cash flow in the second quarter. Cash from operations in the first half of the year was $41 million compared to $53 million in the first half of 2022. But the lower cash from operations was driven by the timing of dividends received from our Zeolyst Joint Venture. On leverage, during the first six months, we spent $73 million for share repurchases in conjunction with secondary offerings. Given the use of cash for share repurchases during the first half of the year, our net debt leverage ratio at the end of the second quarter held at 3.2 times as compared to the end of the first quarter. We expect to generate cash over the balance of the year that will provide for a reduction in our net debt leverage ratio. Based upon our current outlook and assuming no further share repurchases, we expect to end this year with a net debt leverage ratio below 3 times in line with the 2.8 times leverage ratio at the end of 2022. I would also like to highlight that leverage reduction will remain a key priority as we continue to target a net debt leverage ratio of 2 to 2.5 times. At quarter end, we had total liquidity of $99 million, comprised of cash and cash equivalents of $29 million and availability under our ABL facility of $70 million. Kurt has previously stated, late in the second quarter we saw evidence of weaker demand fundamentals and end uses, which we believe are more influenced by cyclical global demand trends. For the second half of 2023, we believe these weaker demand fundamentals will adversely impact sales on virgin sulfuric acid into nylon production as well as sales of polyethylene catalysts, driven by declining global polyethylene demand and lower plant operating rates. With this updated view on the market as well as the unplanned operational downtime at our Ecoservices Dominguez facility late in the second quarter and carrying into the third quarter, we are adjusting our guidance to reflect our updated outlook. We now expect sales for the full year 2023 to be in the range of $685 million to $715 million, primarily due to our expected lower sales volume into nylon and polyethylene end uses. Relative to 2022, we still expect a sales decrease of approximately $90 million associated with the pass-through effect of lower average sulfur costs. At the segment level, Ecoservices sales are expected to be down on a mid-double-digit percentage basis, while Silica Catalyst sales are expected to be down year-over-year on a low double-digit percentage basis. Excluding the estimated $90 million impact of sulfur cost pass-through, Ecoservices sales are forecasted to be down approximately 3% at the midpoint of our guidance. For the Zeolyst Joint Venture, we now expect full year 2023 sales to fall in the range of $155 million to $165 million, up $10 million from our prior guidance range, reflecting our continued expectations for stronger hydrocracking and renewable fuel catalyst sales this year. Taking into account these revised sales assumptions, we now expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $260 million to $275 million. At the segment level, compared to the prior year, we expect Ecoservices adjusted EBITDA to be lower on a high single-digit to low double-digit percentage basis coming off the 2022, where Ecoservices adjusted EBITDA expanded by 28%. We anticipate Catalyst Technologies adjusted EBITDA to be up on a high single-digit to low double-digit percentage basis. Corporate costs are expected to average for the full year what was reported in the second quarter. In light of our revised expectations for full year adjusted EBITDA, we now expect adjusted free cash flow will be in the range of $100 million to $150 million. In addition, our capital spending guidance range has been reduced, reflecting $50 million to $60 million, largely due to revised timing assumptions for capital projects. Lastly, with the interest rate caps we have in place, we still expect interest expense to be $45 million to $50 million for the year. For the second half of the year, given the lower expected sales of virgin sulfuric acid sold into the nylon market, we expect that Ecoservices adjusted EBITDA will be relatively similar in the third and fourth quarters, with Q3 earnings down 15% to 20% compared to the third quarter of 2022. For Catalyst Technologies, we anticipate that their third quarter earnings will be generally in line with the prior year’s third quarter, with higher earnings expected in the fourth quarter, driven by product mix and the timing of hydrocracking catalyst orders. Overall, for the third quarter, we expect our adjusted EBITDA to be down low double digits compared to the prior year’s third quarter. However, our fourth quarter will be stronger with expected adjusted EBITDA up on a low double-digit percentage basis compared to the prior year’s fourth quarter.
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Thank you, Mike. We believe our second quarter results demonstrate the underlying strength and profitable growth potential of Ecovyst’s portfolio. Although we were challenged by an unexpected production restriction in our Ecoservices business during the quarter, higher pricing in regeneration services, along with higher pricing and higher sales volume in Catalyst Technology drove a 9% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA. While our outlook for the second half of the year has been tempered by a weaker demand outlook in two specific end uses, which we believe represent temporary down cycle conditions, for the balance of our businesses, we believe demand fundamentals will remain positive. We expect refinery utilization will remain at high levels for the balance of the year, providing continued support for our regeneration business. In addition, with the production challenges at our Dominguez site now resolved, a resumption of more normal production volumes for virgin sulfuric acid should support demand in other end uses for virgin acid over the balance of the year. For Catalyst Technologies, we still anticipate a stronger second half of the year for hydrocracking sales, and we also expect continued growth in renewable fuel catalyst sales. Overall, we expect Catalyst Technologies will continue to benefit from higher pricing in 2023, with solid year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA. Despite a revised look for the second half of the year associated with production challenges that are now resolved and lower expected sales into two select end uses, we expect pricing and margins to remain favorable. On a full year basis, we expect cash generation to remain favorable with cash conversion above 75% for the year. Given our expectation for strong cash generation over the balance of the year, we expect to end the year with a net debt leverage ratio below 3 times. From a capital allocation standpoint, continued reduction in leverage is a key objective as we move towards our longer-term leverage target of 2.5 times or lower. Looking forward, we believe our portfolio remains well positioned for attractive rates of growth as we serve the growing demand for low-carbon and more sustainable technologies. For our sales of virgin sulfuric acid, we expect the ongoing energy transition and growth in low-carbon technologies will continue to support the expansion of mining projects in the U.S. for copper, borates, and lithium, and these projects will drive increased demand for sulfuric acid. In addition, we continue to participate in the expanding production of renewable fuels through catalyst sales in our ZI joint venture and through increasing activation of renewable fuels catalysts in our Chem32 business. We are pleased to have recently announced our strategic initiative with Valoregen, a leading innovator of recycling technologies for joint collaboration on advanced solutions for plastics recycling. Valoregen has a unique hybrid advanced recycling solution that combines mechanical and advanced recycling to maximize the amount of plastic waste recycled while delivering exceptional quality feedstock oil that can be processed into high-value end products. We believe our Opal Infinity deal technologies can contribute significantly to the achievement of higher yields, improved economics, and higher quality end products for plastics recycling. In summary, near-term demand weakness in isolated and end-use markets does not alter our strategy or long-term value proposition. We continue to believe that our technologies, our supply share positions, and our end-use exposures provide significant opportunities for profitable long-term growth and strong shareholder returns. With that, we will ask the operator to open the line for questions.
Operator, Operator
Our first question comes from Aleksey Yefremov at KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Ryan, Analyst
Hey guys, good morning. Thank you for taking my question here. This is Ryan on for Aleksey. So the first thing I wanted to do is just kind of dig into the new EBITDA guidance for the year, right? You called out a number of different factors. You have the unplanned outage, and then you also have lower sales volumes for virgin sulfuric and PE catalysts. Can you just help us try and break out what the impact of each of those are to kind of better understand the new guide? Thanks.
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Sure. Thanks for the question, Ryan. So the primary factors that were resulting in our moderated adjusted EBITDA outlook are really as follows. The unplanned equipment outage at our Dominguez, California site that really happened in late June that carried on into July, and that resulted in lower operating rates, lost sales, higher repair and maintenance costs, some unfavorable fixed cost absorption, and higher networking costs across that period. Additionally, in the second quarter, our nylon and polyethylene customer end markets increased headwinds due to the really stalled recovery in China and global consumer pressure. And that revised outlook really resulted in us seeing lower customer nominations for products as well as some destocking. So in terms of magnitude of the adjustment, we like to think it’s about probably one-third of it is attributable to the Dominguez and operating issues and higher maintenance costs associated with that. And then the balance of the two-thirds is really split evenly between the downturn in the nylon and polyethylene segments.
Ryan, Analyst
Great. That’s incredibly helpful there. And then my next question, I just want to try and understand a little bit of the timing of what you guys are on PE catalysts. You’re flagging destocking and lower operating rates, which I feel like that’s kind of been a phenomenon that’s been going on since the beginning of the year, where a lot of large producers are probably running at their lowest. So can you just maybe try and sift through that for us? Thanks a lot, guys.
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Yes. No problem, Ryan. I mean, I think at the beginning of the year, we had also stated that we had a cautious view on polyethylene, and we realized that at that time, there was uncertainty surrounding the recovery in China and there were some other consumer headwinds. Again, as we approached the end of the quarter, we started seeing more customer activity pulling back, citing macroeconomic headwinds, which led them to destock and lower operating rates beyond what we had thought would happen at the beginning of the year. As you said, I’m sure you’ve read those comments from those polyethylene producers themselves. So I do want to point out that we are happy that we’ve been successful in increasing pricing in that segment. And we believe that really long-term, these global leaders that we’re partnered with that are in this space will benefit from their scale and geographic locations and their cost advantage. So we’re confident in that market long term after it moves through this down cycle patch.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.
John McNulty, Analyst
Yes, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just one on the Virgin acid side. So it sounds like it’s kind of a mixed bag where you’ve got some weakness around the nylon markets, but you’ve got strength in some of the other markets around the metal and mining opportunities. I guess can you help us to think about what that might mean for virgin acid pricing as we push forward through the rest of this year and into early next year?
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Thank you for the question, John. We’re not providing guidance for 2024 at this time. Regarding nylon, we usually see strong virgin acid demand in Q3, as producers build inventory in anticipation of planned maintenance and potential weather events that could affect the Gulf Coast. However, this year, due to a lack of recovery in China and weaker consumer dynamics, the segment is reducing rates and destocking. We believe this segment will continue to grow in the long term, as it is closely linked to trends like lightweighting and packaging, and our Gulf Coast presence positions us well with our customers' scale and cost advantages. We have noted that nylon and polyethylene are currently impacted by consumer demand and the global macroeconomic outlook. On the other hand, other parts of our business are performing strongly, with robust pricing in the Catalyst Technologies segment. Despite the struggles in the two down segments, they generally balance out with the positive performance elsewhere. Overall, we estimate an impact of about $25 million from operational issues stemming from the winter storm in January, coupled with our Houston outage and the recent issues in Dominguez. Without these operational challenges, the down markets would have been offset by the positive trends we’re observing in other areas.
John McNulty, Analyst
Got it. Thanks very much for the color.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter, Analyst
Hi, this is David Begleiter here. I guess you talked about nylon and polyethylene being at the bottom of the cycle. Do you expect any sequential improvement? And are you baking in a sequential improvement to your guidance?
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Yes. We are looking closely at our customer orders and their outlook as we approach the end of the year. We believe we are currently in a down cycle. Earlier this year, we anticipated a soft market for polyethylene, but it has turned out to be weaker than we expected. This has prompted us to partially adjust our guidance. On the nylon side, we are also seeing a decline, largely due to consumer demand and a slow recovery in China. However, we believe that both the nylon and polyethylene markets will eventually recover. We have strong partnerships with major global producers who will benefit in the long run due to their geographic locations and scale. These markets will grow over time as they are connected to trends like light weighting and packaging.
David Begleiter, Analyst
Okay, thanks. And then second, I guess, on capital allocation. Are you comfortable with your leverage levels right now? And if you think about capital allocation in the second half of 2024, do you expect any share buybacks in the near future?
Michael Feehan, CFO
Yes, David. I think in our current capital allocation strategy, we’ve discussed having a balanced approach. Share repurchases are certainly a part of this strategy, and you’ve seen us engage in share repurchases during some recent secondary offerings. We will continue to do this as long as the price remains attractive from a low-value perspective. We still believe our stock price is undervalued. However, we also understand that both leveraging and deleveraging are crucial, and we are very focused on that. We have indicated that we aim to achieve a leverage ratio in the low 2s, between 2 times and 2.5 times. Therefore, our focus will be on this as we conclude this year and move into the next one.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Hamed Khorsand, BWS Financial.
Hamed Khorsand, Analyst
Hi, good morning. My first question is about your Catalyst business. How would you describe your outlook regarding your order book, considering that your customers typically place orders 6 to 12 months in advance?
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Thanks, Hamed. Looking at the Catalyst Technologies segment, we’re having a strong year overall. The ZI Joint Venture is projected to see hydrocracking increase by over 20%, and renewable fuels are expected to rise in the mid-teens. We're experiencing solid sales volume in the ZI Joint Venture, along with strong pricing across the entire Catalyst Technologies segment. As you noted, we have an outlook of orders where customers provide us with a longer lead time. We still view the order book as robust. While we’re not providing guidance for 2024, we are confident about the future of that business. We have excellent products, especially in the hydrocracking area, where our next-generation hydrocracking catalyst is gaining traction among refineries. We aim to capitalize on the flexibility that catalyst provides. Additionally, the renewable fuels sector continues to grow, driven by increasing demand for renewable and soon sustainable aviation fuels.
Hamed Khorsand, Analyst
And my other question was regarding Dominguez equipment failure. Do you think the business overall is running too hot and you need to take some maintenance downtime for other facilities? Or was this a one-off equipment failure issue?
Kurt Bitting, CEO
We really view this as a one-off equipment failure. I mean we’ve had more downtime than what we’ve liked this year. A good portion of that downtime, again, was attributed to the winter storm that really hit us at the beginning of the year, and that dovetailed into that extended outage that we had in Houston when we opened up the boiler and had to perform more extensive maintenance. The Dominguez outage and the prolonged restriction that resulted in July was really one component in our main gas blower, which is a key piece of rotating equipment that runs the plant. That equipment was actually installed about 12 months ago. So the failure was really premature and unexpected, something that we typically don’t see. So the good news is that’s now complete. We feel that’s behind us. And again, we attribute about $25 million of our kind of shortfall really being attributed to the downtime between the winter storm and the Houston and now the Dominguez event.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.
Laurence Alexander, Analyst
Hello, so just can you help us think through the operating leverage for how Ecovyst should benefit from normalization in the plastics market? I guess, first, in terms of volumes, is there any kind of refill that you would get in terms of order patterns above and beyond just the production rate at the customers, and then how should we think about the incremental margin leverage that you would get on those orders?
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Yes. Thanks for the question. So I mean, right now, the polyethylene market for us, which is generally what we’ve been talking as being in the down cycle is being driven by that lack of recovery in China and lower customer demand. We still view that market long-term. It’s going to grow 3% to 4%. We particularly tend to partner with and supply the largest and most scalable polyethylene units across the globe. And we’ve had a proportionately higher win rate with those new units, and that’s due to our tailored and specified catalysts that are preferred by these large polyethylene producers. So as that market grows long-term, we feel will grow even more than the market due to our ability to win a disproportionate amount of that new business. From a margin standpoint, we’ve been successful this year in raising prices really all across the Catalyst Technology segment including our silica catalyst. So our customers value that tailored catalyst that allows them to make the products that they want to for the market.
Laurence Alexander, Analyst
Could you help me understand the near-term dynamics if the order pattern next year reverts to 4% production rates and growth? Would you anticipate any incremental benefits beyond that? Also, do you expect your shipments to align with the production rate increases, or do you ship in advance? Is it more of a refill strategy, or might there be a lag of about a quarter? How should we consider the degree of cyclical lift next year in relation to your forecasts for the latter half of this year?
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Yes. It's difficult to determine because much of it depends on supply chain and logistics factors, which impacted us last year. We had to rely heavily on airfreight for shipping, which incurred additional costs. Therefore, I cannot accurately predict what that will look like in 2024. However, we do anticipate that the market will recover in the long term, with a growth rate of 3% to 4%. The clients we serve with our catalysts are generally larger and more cost-competitive, so they will benefit significantly from any market upturn.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from David Silver, CL King.
David Silver, Analyst
Yes, hi, good morning. I was going to ask you a question, I guess, about the shortfalls on the catalyst side, in particular. So I know you’ve kind of come at this a couple of different ways. Maybe I just would benefit from one more time through. But as far as nylon goes, I mean, I’m pretty comfortable with the idea that the softness in China is definitely leading to some export opportunities out of there. And given the size of the global market, that makes sense to me. But I always think of the polyethylene market, in particular, as a much bigger market and much less cyclical, more tied to consumer nondurables and very global. So could you just talk about the magnitude, I guess, of the disruption here that would lead to the size or the magnitude of the impact on your results? In other words, is it just the garden variety recession is doing this? Or is it something that’s much more targeted and, I don’t know, multistep or whatever where people are not just reducing current operating rates but destocking at the same time. Just trying to get comfortable with in such a large, relatively non-cyclical end market, such as polyethylene, why the severity of the drop-off seems so compressed over a relatively short period of time. Thank you.
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Yes, thanks for the question, David. I’ll try to break it down further. In polyethylene, the regions experiencing slower growth are Asia and Europe. Asia is linked to the slow recovery in China, or perhaps the lack of recovery is a better way to put it. In Europe, operating rates have decreased due to the slowdown in macroeconomic activity and issues with cost competitiveness. Fortunately, that's a minority share of our product shipments. However, the distortions, particularly in Asia, as you mentioned with nylon, are creating opportunities for exports elsewhere in the world. This may also be happening in polyethylene, leading to lower operating rates globally and some destocking as well.
David Silver, Analyst
Thank you for that. I appreciate it. I’d like to switch over to the renewable fuels catalyst area and SAF. Specifically, I was wondering if you could explain how the selling process works in practice. Many catalysts are well understood, and the feedstock they use is mature and developed. In contrast, renewable fuels can have a wide variety of feedstocks, and different customers have varying capacity needs. Can you discuss how you plan to make inroads in that market? Is it more customer-specific, or are there standard products emerging? Regarding SAF, that seems like a promising opportunity in the medium term. What milestones do you think need to be achieved for that product to be used in volume? Are all regulatory approvals in place? Are there other challenges you would identify as obstacles to unlocking demand in that market? Thank you.
Kurt Bitting, CEO
Sure. I will start by discussing the milestones for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). We are looking forward to obtaining regulatory approvals for these fuels and the airlines committing to blending certain percentages of sustainable aviation fuel into their offerings. Airlines have set various goals regarding the blending of fuels, and these efforts will depend on regulatory approvals as well as the availability of the fuels. We are optimistic about the long-term prospects of this market. In terms of selling renewable fuels and sustainable aviation fuel, our company has significant experience working with customers, allowing us to customize catalysts and collaborate on various feedstocks. Renewable fuels primarily derive from fats and oils, which are also relevant for sustainable aviation fuel, but we are also engaging with other parties exploring shorter carbon chains for aviation fuel production, such as converting ethanol into aviation fuel. Our DLI technology serves as a catalyst for both processes. We collaborate with customers based on their specific technologies and have a well-equipped facility in Conshohocken that enables us to pilot catalysts efficiently, allowing customers to test their units and produce fuels for testing with airlines.
David Silver, Analyst
Okay, thank you very much. Appreciate it.
Operator, Operator
We have no further questions in the queue at this time. This does conclude the Ecovyst Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. Thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect at any time.